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  1. Bitcoin’s price rally has hit turbulence over the past 48 hours, and this has opened the door for bearish voices to resurface. After reaching a fresh high of $124,128 just three days ago, the leading cryptocurrency has since declined by about 4.8%, sliding back to the $117,000 to $118,000 price zone at the time of writing. This pullback has opened up a possibility that the much-anticipated macro top may already be in, and further downside may be possible if there is a lack of bullish momentum. Analyst Maps Out Bearish Bitcoin Wave Structure Bitcoin showed signs of building on in early August after bouncing off a low around $112,000. However, after its latest high at $124,128, sellers quickly stepped in, pulling the price down. The decline has been accompanied by fading short-term momentum. Although it might be too early to conclude, relative strength index (RSI) readings are starting to point to a bearish divergence on the 4-hour candlestick timeframe chart. Taking to the social media platform X, crypto analyst CasiTrades outlined what they believe could be the start of a larger ABC corrective structure for Bitcoin. According to the projection, Bitcoin may be entering Wave A, which consists of a five-wave corrective structure that could send the price to as low as $77,000 at the macro 0.382 Fibonacci retracement. The roadmap of this price crash envisions an initial Wave 1 drop to $112,000, a brief Wave 2 recovery back to $120,000, and then another Wave 3 decline into the $89,000 range. After this, the next step is a Wave 4 retest break of $100,000 before reversing into Wave 5, which brings the ultimate Wave A bottom at $77,000. Chart Image From X: CasiTrades The accompanying chart posted by the analyst shows the wave counts with subwave precision. Interestingly, the analyst also pointed out that the ultimate macro target for the end of this correction is at $60,000, right at the golden 0.618 Fibonacci retracement. This is at the macro level and can only come to fruition if the ABC corrective waves play out to completion. A Bearish Tone Amidst Bullish Predictions This analysis introduces a sobering counterpoint at a time when many forecasts continue to paint Bitcoin as being on track for $150,000 and beyond. Even though strong institutional inflows and technical milestones, such as the realized price flipping above the 200-day moving average are bullish indicators, the bearish scenario from CasiTrades could still be valid. If Bitcoin fails to reclaim bullish momentum, the current correction could change into something deeper, making the $124,000 high not just a pause but the macro top of this cycle. Although many cryptocurrencies have largely followed Bitcoin’s movements this cycle, CasiTrade’s analysis isn’t a bearish case for the entire crypto market. According to the analyst, if this bearish case plays out, it could cause the long-discussed capital rotation out of Bitcoin and into large-cap altcoins, some of which may surge to new all-time price highs even as Bitcoin retraces. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $118,203. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
  2. Bitcoin’s smaller cousin, XRP, has drawn fresh bullish bets after it held above the $3 mark in July. According to trading charts and public commentary, the token first pierced $3 in January 2025 — its highest point in seven years — then pulled back before reclaiming that level in mid-July. The comeback has some analysts reading the move as a change in market structure, and price sits near $3.12 as momentum checks continue. Trendline Breakouts And Support Flip According to analyst Steph, a breakout above a long-running descending trendline on the weekly XRP chart is what matters now. Steph points to the flip of $3 from resistance into support as a classic technical cue. He used historical weekly charts to argue that past breakouts from similar trendlines often led to strong rallies, and he highlighted that pattern going back to 2022 when price action began to shift more visibly. A Pattern Seen Several Times Since 2022 Reports have traced the same setup across multiple cycles. After the Terra collapse in May 2022, XRP fell and formed a descending trendline that broke in September 2022, sending price to a high near $0.55. Later, a new trendline formed and then broke around the SEC vs. Ripple ruling in July 2023, which preceded a move toward $0.94. The most recent big run took XRP to about $3.4 in January 2025, after a breakout following the November 2024 US elections. Those episodes form the backbone of the “repeat pattern” case. Analyst Targets And Differing Calls Steph projects a potential rise to $14 from roughly $3.12 now, which would equal about a 340% gain. According to his messaging, some traders who sold early took profits, while others who held could see larger returns if the thesis plays out. Based on reports, some commentators have voiced similar targets, saying when XRP traded near $2, that the token was poised for a major breakout and pointed to Fibonacci levels toward $14, while others put a $14 minimum target on the table last March. What To Watch Going Forward Volume on any push above recent highs will tell the story. Keep an eye on whether $3 stays as support and whether the weekly breakout holds as price moves higher. Also watch how long consolidation around $2 lasted — more than five months — because long flat bases can precede sharp moves if buyers return in force. Derivatives flows and where large holders place sell orders will matter too. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
  3. Bitcoin’s recent climb looks steady but measured. Prices hovered at $118,350 when the key calls were made, and short-term technical models point to a possible rise of about 11% to $129,690 by September 15, 2025. Market gauges are in Bullish territory. The Fear & Greed Index sits at 64 (Greed), and over the last 30 days Bitcoin recorded 13/30 (43%) green days with price volatility around 1.65%. Those figures show momentum, but not runaway behavior. CEO Issues A Cautionary Call According to Canary Capital CEO Steven McClurg, there may be no more than 27% of upside left in this cycle before a downtrend begins. He told viewers there is a greater than 50% chance Bitcoin hits the $140–$150k band this year. At $118,350 that would mean gains in the neighborhood of 20% to 30%. That is the scenario he laid out — a controlled move higher that then rolls over if key buyers step back. Institutional Flows Drive Recent Gains Reports have pointed to spot Bitcoin ETF inflows and large treasury purchases as the main drivers of recent price action. McClurg said sovereign wealth funds and insurance companies have been asking questions and moving into allocations, and he expects some of that buying to peak in the coming months. If those big buyers slow or pause, the price path becomes harder to justify at higher levels. Macro Signals And Fed Timing McClurg also expressed concern about the broader economy and the timing of US monetary policy. He said he does not like the economic standing now and argued the US Federal Reserve should have cut rates earlier. Still, he expects cuts in September and October, and market pricing via a popular CME gauge places the odds of a September cut at roughly 92%. A Fed move can lift risk assets, or it can unsettle markets if it signals deeper trouble — either outcome matters for Bitcoin. Bulls Offer A Different Timeline Not all voices are cautious. Cathie Wood (ARK Invest) projects a big upside — a bull case around $1.5 million by 2030, with lower-case scenarios in the high hundreds of thousands. She links the thesis to growing institutional demand and Bitcoin’s fixed supply. Strategy executive chairman Michael Saylor said recently that “Winter is not coming back,” and he went as far as saying that if Bitcoin is not going to zero it could reach $1 million. Mike Novogratz (Galaxy Digital) gives a range: midterm targets like $150k are possible, and under stronger adoption scenarios he talks about $500k–$1M longer term. He stresses those outcomes depend on macro conditions and large buyers. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
  4. The Solana (SOL) market has registered a near 2% price increase in the last 24 hours, representing slight relief for investors enduring steep losses from the last week. Between August 14 and 15, the altcoin tumbled by roughly 13%, sliding from near $210 to around $180 as broader crypto markets reacted to US Producer Price Index (PPI) data. Despite the short-term recovery, prominent market analyst Ali Martinez warns that Solana may remain in danger yet, projecting the potential for further downside in the days ahead. Solana Rejected At $208, Key Support Levels At $180, $160 In Focus In an X post on August 16, Martinez outlines a bearish technical outlook on the Solana market following a solid rejection at a key technical price level. Solana surged above $200 this week, marking the first time in this price region since July 23. However, the altcoin was unable to sustain its upward trajectory, encountering resistance at the $208 price level. Notably, this price region forms the upper boundary of a well-established trading price channel whose lower boundary lies around $160. Therefore, there is strong potential for the current retracement to persist with initial support targets set around $180, i.e., the midline of the trading range under study. However, a decisive price break below this level would force SOL to $160, indicating a potential 17% decline from present spot market prices. On the other hand, if Solana bulls can sustain prices above $180, it would invalidate these bearish projections, perhaps pushing the altcoin into consolidation. However, Solana must decisively claim the price resistance around the $208 region to show bullish intent, with potential upside targets set around $250. Solana Price Outlook At the time of writing, Solana (SOL) trades at $192, representing a net gain of 2.83% over the past week. However, the asset’s trading volume has dropped sharply, plunging by 52.25% in the last 24 hours, signaling a significant decline in recent market activity. Despite the reduced volume, investor sentiment around Solana remains broadly positive. According to data from Coincodex, the current Fear & Greed Index stands at 56 (Greed), indicating a leaning toward bullishness. Meanwhile, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) recently announced an extension of its review period for the Bitwise and 21Shares spot Ethereum ETF applications. The decision had little impact on investor sentiment toward Solana, as such extensions are a standard procedure in the SEC’s handling of crypto-related filings. The commission is expected to reach its final deadline in October. Looking ahead, Coincodex analysts maintain a cautiously optimistic outlook for SOL’s price. Their forecasts project Solana at $197 over the next month, and a potential climb to $219 within three months, should broader market conditions remain supportive.
  5. BTC experienced significant volatility after setting a new all-time high. The price quickly reversed, signalling a possible bull trap, leading everyone to question, what is the best crypto to buy now? In all likelihood, BTC is set to experience sideways consolidation for a while within the $116 to $124k range. BitcoinPriceMarket CapBTC$2.36T24h7d30d1yAll time Bulls pushed BTC to a new peak of $124.4k, but heavy selling pressure ensued and trapped late entrants. It is now back in the 118k range. Maintaining this level is important for the bull cycle to remain in effect. A rebound from the 118k level is a sure sign that the bullish trend will continue. On the four-hour chart, BTC’s recent moves reflect a classic liquidity sweep. It broke through its previous all-time high, triggering breakout buys and stop-losses, only to reverse sharply. (BTCUSD) It then followed up by sharply declining below the previous swing low. Currently, BTC is trading between the range of 116k to 124k. Without a convincing breakout, analysts are expecting the price action to remain volatile. This level of control could potentially allow for double-spending and censorship of transactions. However, Monero developers have pushed back. According to them, a reorganisation does not necessarily imply a successful 51% attach. On the contrary, experts have warned that the pool’s dominance could enable it to rewrite the blockchain and block rival miners. This incident has sparked online debates over vulnerabilities regarding proof-of-work blockchain with concentrated mining power. EXPLORE: Best Meme Coin ICOs to Invest in August 2025 The post [LIVE]BTC’s Post-High Bull Trap, $12B BlackRock Bet Rattles ETH Supply: Best Crypto To Buy Now? appeared first on 99Bitcoins.
  6. It has been a historic week for crypto! Bitcoin (BTC) breached $124,000 for the first time, and with Ethereum (ETH) looking to test its all-time high, the altcoin season might finally be here! In the backdrop, massive changes are afoot in crypto Asia. Here’s a rundown of what transpired Metaplanet Crushed Japan’s Blue-Chip Giants The Japanese BTC Treasury Company, Metaplanet, saw its stock grow by 190%, outperforming some of the largest and most liquid Japanese blue-chip companies. According to its earnings report released on 13 August 2025, its year-to-date (YTD) earnings far surpassed the average gains posted by the TOPIX Core 30, Japan’s leading index that tracks industry giants such as Toyota, Sony and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries. Investors witnessing Metaplanet’s strategy piled on, resulting in its shareholder count increasing to more than 180,000 as of June 2025, a 350% increase since it started its BTC accumulation strategy. BitMine, the Ether stacking company, stood out as the clear victor amid the country’s growing appetite for crypto-linked equities. Bloomberg’s report published on 11 August 2025 highlighted that South Korean retail investors funnelled $259 million into BitMine shares since early July, making it the country’s most heavily purchased overseas security stock for the month. Meanwhile, over the last 30 days, BitMine has ramped up its Ether holdings by 410.68% and now holds 833,100 ETH, securing its position as the world’s largest Ether stacker. EXPLORE: Best New Cryptocurrencies to Invest in 2025 Key Takeaways Metaplanet’s stock performance is outpacing Japan’s giant blue chip companies Kazakhstan launched Central Asia’s first BTC ETF, aiming to become a regional crypto hub South Korean investors are ditching American Big Tech companies and parking their funds in high-risk, high-reward crypto equities The post This Week In Crypto Asia: Metaplanet Crushed Big Tech Stock, Kazakhstan Launched Central Asia’s First BTC ETF appeared first on 99Bitcoins.
  7. The Aave (AAVE) market is now showing signs of exhaustion after an impressive price rally earlier in August. Following a resounding rejection at the $335 price region, the DeFi token is exhibiting significant hawkish potential as reflected by a 12.03% decline in the past 48 hours. Interestingly, renowned market analyst Ali Martinez shares some potential downside targets derived from an emerging bearish pattern. AAVE Faces Double-Top Risk: $230 Target Looms If Key Supports Fail In an X post on August 16, Martinez provides a technical outlook on the AAVE market, noting the formation of a double top pattern, i.e., a classic bearish candle formation that emerges when an asset rallies twice to a similar resistance zone but fails to establish a breakout, followed by a breakdown beneath the neckline support to form a “M” shape. Looking at the AAVE chart below, the double top pattern is well observed in the two instances of a price surge to around the $335 price region, followed by decisive pullbacks in July and recently this August. Notably, AAVE has now slipped below the key support region between $300-$310, turning investors’ attention to deeper floor targets. Based on Martinez’s analysis, the pivotal level to monitor is $278–$280, which represents the neckline of the M-pattern. A decisive break and close below this level would validate the bearish projection and expose AAVE to further downside. The market expert projects that, should this neckline fail, the token could spiral toward $230, a level not seen since early summer. On the flip side, invalidation of the bearish thesis requires AAVE to hold above the $278-$280, before launching a rebound to reclaim the $335 resistance zone. Such a move could reestablish bullish momentum, setting the stage for a potential test of the $370 region. AAVE Surpasses $3 Trillion In DeFi Deposits In other developments, the Aave protocol has now recorded over $3 trillion in deposits since its launch in December 2020. According to data from DefiLlama, the prominent lending protocol currently holds $37.15 billion in total value locked (TVL) with major host chains including Ethereum, Arbitrum, Base, etc. Meanwhile, the Aave token trades at $296 after a slight 0.71% loss in the last 24 hours. However, the DeFi token is down by 7.55% on its monthly chart, amid widespread crypto market corrections. Nevertheless, a year-on-year profit of 168.77% supports its position as a top-performing token in the present market cycle. With a potential altseason on the horizon, Aave also remains one asset on investors’ alert, being part of the largest 40 cryptocurrencies based on crypto market cap. Featured image from aave.com, chart from Tradingview
  8. Ethereum is once again in the spotlight as it battles volatility after breaking multi-year highs and testing heavy resistance just below $4,800. The rally has brought ETH within striking distance of new records, but the retrace shows that sellers are not giving up easily at these critical levels. Despite the pullback, institutional demand continues to surge at an unprecedented pace, providing strong support for the asset’s long-term outlook. In recent weeks, Ethereum ETFs have reported massive inflows even as price action consolidates, signaling that large-scale investors remain confident in further gains. At the same time, public companies are beginning to follow a Bitcoin-style playbook, adopting Ethereum in their treasury strategies. This combination of ETF inflows and corporate accumulation represents a structural shift in ETH’s market dynamics, tightening supply and reducing sell pressure across major exchanges. For traders and investors alike, the key question now is whether Ethereum can sustain momentum and push beyond the $4,900 barrier into uncharted territory. With demand growing from both institutions and companies, the setup remains bullish, but volatility is expected to persist as the market digests these historic moves. The next breakout could define ETH’s trajectory for the rest of the cycle. Ethereum ETF Inflows Signal Strong Institutional Demand According to top analyst Ted Pillows, Ethereum ETFs just set a historic milestone, smashing records with $2.85 billion in inflows last week. This remarkable demand comes at a time when ETH is consolidating after breaking above multi-year highs. While the market is undergoing what Pillows calls a “healthy correction,” the broader trend remains firmly pointed upward. In his view, the sheer scale of institutional buying confirms that Ethereum is heading higher, with growing evidence that ETFs are reshaping the demand and supply dynamics of the market. Despite this bullish backdrop, Pillows also highlights that volatility is likely to persist. Bitcoin has shown signs of indecision, struggling to sustain momentum above all-time highs. This has created mixed sentiment across altcoins, many of which are facing uncertainty and fragmented capital flows. For Ethereum, however, the ETF-driven accumulation acts as a stabilizing force, cushioning pullbacks and supporting the ongoing trend. Onchain data further validates Pillows’ outlook, with exchange supply steadily declining and OTC reserves tightening as institutional participants step in at scale. The implication is clear: selling pressure from short-term traders is being absorbed by longer-term, high-conviction buyers. While short-term volatility may test market nerves, the overarching structure signals strength. In Pillows’ words: ETH remains on track for higher levels. Price Consolidates Below Key Level Ethereum’s weekly chart highlights a decisive move after breaking through multi-year resistance levels, with ETH currently trading near $4,423. The rally peaked at $4,792, just short of the $4,800 psychological barrier, before retracing slightly. This rejection shows that bulls face strong resistance near prior highs, yet the overall trend remains firmly bullish. The price is holding well above key moving averages—the 50-week, 100-week, and 200-week SMAs—indicating sustained momentum and healthy market structure. The 200-week SMA around $2,442 now acts as a long-term foundation, while the 50-week SMA near $2,771 has flipped into strong support, highlighting how the market has shifted from a prolonged accumulation to an expansion phase. Volume spikes during the breakout confirm significant demand, suggesting institutional players and ETFs continue to accumulate. Despite the retracement from $4,792, price action remains constructive, consolidating above $4,400 while buyers defend critical zones. If ETH manages a clean breakout above $4,900, it would enter uncharted territory, likely accelerating toward new price discovery. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
  9. Bitcoin is trading at a decisive level after surging to fresh all-time highs, touching $124,000 before pulling back. Bulls remain in control, but the market now shows signs of hesitation, with BTC struggling to confirm momentum above $120,000. This price action reflects indecision among traders as the market balances profit-taking with renewed accumulation. On-chain data highlights a key shift in dynamics. After a sharp increase in the 30-day average Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) — a metric often used to track long-term holder activity and selling pressure — the indicator has now dropped significantly. This decline suggests that selling pressure from older coins has eased, even after recent profit-taking. For investors, the message is clear: while Bitcoin remains in a powerful uptrend, the inability to stay firmly above $120K highlights a critical juncture. If selling pressure continues to ease, BTC could consolidate and prepare for another breakout attempt. However, failure to hold these levels may embolden bears who are already speculating on a potential top. The coming sessions will be pivotal in defining Bitcoin’s next move. Bitcoin Selling Pressure Eases As CDD Drops According to top analyst Darkfost, the Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) indicator remains one of the most reliable tools for gauging selling pressure, particularly from long-term holders (LTHs). The metric measures how long a Bitcoin has been held before being moved, essentially combining both volume and coin age. In most cases, older BTC are moved in preparation for selling, making CDD spikes a strong indicator of distribution phases in the market. On July 23rd, the 30-day moving average of CDD surged to its highest level of this cycle, reaching nearly 1.35 million. This suggested that a significant amount of long-held Bitcoin was moved — and likely sold — as investors looked to lock in profits at or near record prices. Despite this wave of selling, however, Bitcoin’s price action has held up remarkably well, signaling robust demand and the ability of the market to absorb supply without major breakdowns. Since late July, this selling pressure has notably eased. The 30-dma CDD has been steadily declining throughout August, indicating fewer older coins are hitting the market. This trend highlights renewed stability and suggests accumulation is regaining dominance over distribution. For Bitcoin’s broader outlook, the decline in CDD is a bullish signal. It shows that despite profit-taking, strong demand underpins current price levels, allowing BTC to consolidate near highs. If this trend continues, the groundwork may be laid for another leg higher in the ongoing bull cycle. Price Analysis: Testing Key Support Level Bitcoin is consolidating just below its recent all-time high, with the chart showing clear resistance at $123,217. After briefly touching the $124K region, BTC retraced and is now trading around $117,497, sitting on top of key moving averages. The 50-day SMA (~$117,337) is acting as immediate short-term support, while the 100-day SMA (~$115,366) provides an additional safety net for bulls. The 200-day SMA (~$110,551) remains far below, reflecting the strong momentum of the current uptrend. The structure suggests indecision, with buyers defending support but failing to break above the $123K–$124K zone. A clean breakout above this level could open the path toward $130K and beyond, confirming continuation of the bull run. Conversely, a breakdown below $115K would signal weakness and expose BTC to deeper retracements. Momentum indicators suggest consolidation, not distribution, which aligns with the broader narrative of long-term holders selling into strength while new buyers step in. This healthy churn has allowed Bitcoin to sustain high levels without collapsing, a sign of structural resilience. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
  10. How Much Gold Can I Buy with a Million Dollars? If you are asking, “How much gold can I buy with a million dollars,” you want math, not noise. The short answer is a range: roughly the high three hundreds to low four hundreds of ounces, depending on your all-in price, the products you choose, and transaction friction. The long answer below shows you exactly how to calculate ounces, compare coins versus bars, control premiums and spreads, plan purchases in tranches, and store metal wisely so you keep more of what you buy. Start with the Math, Not the Hype Your ounces come from one simple equation: ounces = budget ÷ all-in price per ounce. The all-in price equals spot price + product premium + any transaction costs (shipping, insurance, wires, and taxes where applicable). Spot moves every day. Premiums move with demand and product type. Costs depend on where and how you buy. Until you know your all-in number, you do not know your ounces. Understand Spot Price Gold quotes by TradingView Spot is the live market reference for one troy ounce of gold. Think of it as the starting line, not the finish. You will never pay exactly spot for newly minted, deliverable coins or bars; fabrication and distribution add real-world costs. Use a conservative working spot in your planning so short-term swings do not derail your decision. Premiums vs. Spreads Premium is what you pay over spot to buy a product. Spread is the gap between a dealer’s buy price and sell price at the same time. Premiums are the entry toll; spreads are the round-trip toll. Popular one-ounce coins often carry higher premiums and tighter spreads; larger bars often have lower premiums but can have wider spreads depending on the buyer network. Both numbers matter if you want to maximize ounces today and dollars later. Transaction Costs and Taxes Shipping, insurance, and payment fees (wire/credit) add to your all-in price. Sales-tax rules vary by state and by product type. For retirement accounts holding physical gold (via an approved custodian and depository), expect setup and annual storage/administration charges. None of these are mysterious—get them quoted in writing before you wire funds. How Much Gold Can I Buy with a Million Dollars? The Real-World Range Assume a hypothetical spot of $2,400 per ounce to keep examples concrete. Your all-in price will be spot plus a premium: Spot + 2% (efficient bars): all-in $2,448 → about 408 oz for $1,000,000. Spot + 5% (mix of bars and popular coins): all-in $2,520 → about 397 oz. Spot + 8% (convenience and brand): all-in $2,592 → about 386 oz. These are planning numbers, not promises. If spot rises or falls, or your premium shifts, your ounces follow. The key insight: a few percentage points on premium can move your stack by a dozen ounces or more on a million-dollar ticket. Coins, Bars, or Both You have two levers: liquidity and efficiency. One-ounce coins from major mints (American Eagles/Buffalos, Maple Leafs, Britannias, etc.) are easy to recognize and sell in small chunks. They usually cost more over spot. Bars—especially 10-ounce and kilo bars from recognized refiners—tend to offer more ounces per dollar but require a buyer who can weigh, measure, and verify. Neither choice is “right” in all cases; the right mix reflects your goals. When Coins Make Sense You want the flexibility to sell in small amounts without breaking a larger bar. You value brand recognition and tight buyback networks. You prefer the psychological comfort of familiar, sealed mint packaging. When Bars Make Sense Your top priority is maximizing ounces per dollar today. You use professional storage or a dealer/depository with a strong bar buyback desk. You are comfortable verifying serials, weights, and dimensions on delivery. Hidden Friction That Shrinks Your Stack People come up short on ounces when they underestimate friction. Beyond premiums, spreads take a bite. With physical gold, buy/sell spreads of 1–3% (and sometimes more) are normal depending on product and venue. Add shipping and insurance. Add custodian and storage if using an IRA. Add sales tax where applicable. These are not “gotchas”—they are the cost of operating in the real world. Price them in before you commit. Storage, Custody, and Security How you store gold affects cost, liquidity, and sleep quality. Home storage gives you speed and privacy but requires a serious safe and a call to your insurer. Safe-deposit boxes can work for modest amounts but have access limitations. Professional vaults offer allocated or segregated storage, audits, and insurance for a fee. For retirement accounts, an approved custodian and depository are mandatory. Decide on storage before you buy so delivery and documentation are seamless. Allocated vs. Segregated Allocated: Your metal is identified for you within a larger pool. Segregated: Specific bars/coins are set aside under your name. Both models can work when the provider is reputable. Read the fine print, confirm insurance terms, and keep statements on file. A Step-by-Step Buying Plan for $1,000,000 Set your allocation in the context of your overall portfolio and liquidity needs. Phase the purchase into tranches (for example, three to five orders over 30–90 days) to reduce timing risk. Pre-decide a product mix (e.g., 60% bars / 40% coins) so you do not chase headlines mid-order. Get three written quotes from reputable dealers for the exact SKUs, quantities, delivery method, and payment terms. Demand an all-in number: premiums, shipping, insurance, payment fees, and any taxes. Ask today’s buyback price on the same items to see the spread before you buy. Coordinate storage (home safe, bank box, or vault) and insurance in advance. Verify on delivery: weigh/measure random pieces, record serials, and file invoices and photos. Two Buyer Profiles (and the Ounces They Typically Land) Efficiency-first buyer: Favors kilo and 10-ounce bars, professional segregated storage, and wire payment. With all-in near spot +2% to +3%, this buyer often lands around the upper 300s to low 400s of ounces on $1,000,000. Minimal drama, maximum ounces. Flexibility-first buyer: Splits across one-ounce coins and mid-size bars. The higher average premium (say spot +5% to +7%) pushes ounces toward the lower 400s or high 300s. In exchange, they can easily sell small slices on short notice. Worked Example: 60/40 Mix with Hypothetical Prices Using the earlier $2,400 spot, assume bars at +2.5% (all-in $2,460) and coins at +5.5% (all-in $2,532). On a 60/40 split: $600,000 in bars at $2,460 → about 243.9 oz. $400,000 in coins at $2,532 → about 158.0 oz. Total ≈ 401.9 oz. Factor in shipping, insurance, and a realistic buy/sell spread, and your net effective cost tightens or widens accordingly. The math is transparent; the decision is yours. Pressure-Test Your Plan Before You Wire If price drops 10% after tranche one, do you stick to the schedule or freeze? If dealer A’s buyback disappoints, do you have dealer B ready with terms in writing? If you need liquidity fast, which pieces go first, and how long until funds arrive? Are storage, insurance, and audit procedures documented and accessible to a spouse or trustee? Have you cleared tax questions with your professional before purchase day? Common Pitfalls to Avoid Chasing limited-edition collectibles when your goal is ounces and liquidity. Buying without a full, written all-in quote, including shipping and fees. Ignoring the sell side; spreads matter as much as premiums over time. Concentrating storage in a single location; diversify across at least two. Failing to document serials, delivery dates, and storage statements. Putting Numbers to Work (A Simple Playbook) Here’s a clean way to execute a million-dollar purchase: Decide on a 60/40 or 50/50 split (bars/coins) that fits your liquidity needs. Schedule two to four tranches with dates on your calendar. Lock each tranche only after you receive an updated all-in quote and same-day buyback. Ship directly to your vault for that portion and schedule a secure handoff for any home-stored pieces. Log serials, weights, and invoices the day boxes arrive; file digital copies in two locations. Review vault statements and insurance certificates the following week; confirm corrections in writing. Conclusion: Clarity Beats Noise So, how much gold can you buy with a million dollars? Using realistic all-in pricing, expect roughly the high three hundreds to low four hundreds of ounces. Your exact result depends on spot, premiums, spreads, and storage choices. Choose coins, bars, or a smart blend; phase purchases in tranches; verify on delivery; and document everything. Markets will swing. Your plan should not. Control the inputs, and the ounces will quietly do the job you hired them to do. The post How Much Gold Can $1M Buy? first appeared on American Bullion.
  11. A wave of anecdotes from industry figures and onlookers has pushed XRP into everyday talk in some circles, but the picture is mixed. According to a recent podcast episode featuring several crypto commentators, guests flagged “mania signals” as a way to spot when an asset is going mainstream. Some guests said they are now hearing XRP mentioned in casual settings, while others point to counterexamples that suggest the trend is not universal. Uber Drivers Talk Crypto Based on reports from the Unchained podcast and social posts, one guest said they had taken multiple Uber rides where drivers were trading XRP. That comment was later amplified on social media, with others sharing similar encounters. Reports have disclosed that another well-known community figure said Uber drivers in Nevada and Michigan even recognized him as “that XRP lawyer guy” after his advocacy in the Ripple–SEC case. Those anecdotes add color to claims of growing retail chatter. Small Survey Finds Little Uptake A separate, small experiment tested the idea directly. A commentator took 25 Uber rides in Ontario and asked each driver whether they held XRP. Most drivers were confused or said they did not own any crypto. One driver reported holding XRP, having bought at $1.67, and said they planned to hold long-term. Based on that sample, the experiment’s author concluded that the “Uber driver” story is overstated, or that early buyers may have already cashed out. Retail Buzz Versus Real Adoption Analysts differ on what these encounters mean. According to a Bloomberg ETF analyst cited in reports, institutional demand for a possible XRP ETF may start modest while retail interest could be greater. Other researchers in the community argue that institutions might be quietly building positions even if many retail investors remain unaware. Both lines of argument can be true at once: pockets of strong recognition can exist while broad adoption lags behind. Anecdotes Need Hard Data What matters next is measurable breadth. Watchers say to track search trends, wallet activity, and consistent reports from many cities rather than isolated meetings. If mentions of XRP keep appearing across unrelated places, that would be stronger evidence. For now, though, the mix of big-signal stories and low-hit surveys means the claim of wide mainstream recognition is still unproven. These first-hand accounts are compelling because they are simple and human. They make a tidy headline and spark debate online. Reports so far say they are not yet a substitute for consistent, verifiable data. Some people are clearly talking about XRP in daily life. But the jury is still out on whether that talk has crossed into broad mainstream awareness. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
  12. According to a new technical analysis, Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader crypto market could be mirroring historical post-halving cycle patterns. While the market has previously rallied through July and August, historical fractals point to a potential crash in September, followed by a push into a cycle peak later in the year. September Proves Risky For Bitcoin And Crypto Market A recent X social media post by crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen has highlighted a recurring pattern in Bitcoin’s price action that could have significant implications for the market over the coming months. His analysis shows that Bitcoin has consistently followed a post-halving cycle that exhibits distinct seasonal price movements, particularly around July, August, and September. The chart shared by Cowen illustrates that in previous cycles, Bitcoin has often rallied in July and August, fueling optimism and strong market sentiment. However, each time this has been followed by a September crash, leading to a reset before the final push toward the cycle top, which usually arrives in the last quarter of the year. According to the analysis, this repeating structure is not unique to a single cycle but has appeared across multiple past cycles, giving weight to the expert’s argument that history could be repeating. In 2013, 2017, and 2021, Bitcoin’s price behavior followed this pattern almost identically, showing strength in mid-summer and weakness in September. After a final rally to a peak, each of these cycles was eventually followed by an extended bear market phase, during which valuations corrected sharply from their highs. Based on Cowen’s report, the current cycle appears to be unfolding the same way, as Bitcoin already displayed strength in July and August this year, sparking concerns that a September pullback could be approaching. BTC Cycles Suggest Market Still Has Room To Grow A new technical analysis by crypto market expert TechDev also reveals a recurring pattern in Bitcoin’s long-term price cycles, arguing that, contrary to popular belief, the current market may still be far from its peak. The analysis, supported by a historical chart of BTC’s performance, shows that every market top has consistently occurred around 14 months after a specific cyclical signal. The chart outlines multiple Bitcoin cycles dating back to 2011, with tops and bottoms clearly marked with green and red indicators. Each upward run is followed by a significant correction and then a recovery accumulation phase. The data also revealed that each cycle top often aligned with a measured time frame of approximately 420 days. Based on this model, current projections show that Bitcoin still has room to run. The most recent green marker on the chart signals that the market could already be transitioning out of its corrective phase. If historical patterns hold, this could mean the market is entering a prolonged growth window rather than nearing exhaustion. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
  13. African Rainbow Minerals (JSE: ARI) has increased its stake in Canadian junior Surge Copper (TSXV: SURG) by another 6.46% with the purchase of approximately 25.78 million shares. The share purchases were made at C$0.175 each, above Surge Copper’s current market price of C$0.14 per share, for total proceeds of approximately C$4.51 million. ARM, which mainly operates gold, platinum and coal mines in South Africa, first invested in Surge Copper in April 2024, purchasing about 39.61 million shares at C$0.095 each. It subsequently bought another 1.58 million shares at C$0.15 in June after exercising its investor rights to prevent dilution. With the latest purchase, ARM now owns approximately 68.74 million of Surge Copper’s shares or 19.9% of those outstanding. In a statement, the African miner says it acquired the shares for investment purposes. At market close Friday, Surge Copper had a market capitalization of C44.9 million. Large copper-molybdenum project Surge’s main asset is the 100%-owned Berg project in central British Columbia, which it is developing as a standalone open-pit mine. The underlying porphyry deposit has more than 1 billion tonnes in measured and indicated resources containing 5.1 billion lb. of copper and 633 million tonnes of molybdenum. A preliminary economic assessment published in 2023 outlined a 30-year mine life with total production of 3.8 billion lb. copper and 402 million lb. molybdenum. This would make Berg one of the top copper producers in Canada, and by far the largest molybdenum producer. Based on the production profile, the study gave the project a post-tax net present value of C$2.1 billion and a 20% internal rate of return. The initial capital is estimated at C$1.97 billion, which would be paid back over four years. The company is currently in the process of completing a resource update and advancing the project towards the pre-feasibility stage.
  14. According to CRYPTOWZRD’s recent update, Bitcoin ended the last session on a bearish note, but the broader outlook may soon shift. He noted that the Trump–Putin meeting delivered a productive outcome, which could fuel a positive reaction in the market if conditions remain steady. Daily Candle Shows Slight Bearish Bias, Yet Indecisive In his update, CRYPTOWZRD noted that Bitcoin’s daily candle closed slightly bearish. The analyst explained that although the close leaned to the downside, he would still consider the overall signal indecisive. Turning attention to external factors, CRYPTOWZRD highlighted that the recent meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska was productive. He pointed out that this development could create a favorable atmosphere in the broader crypto market, which may spill over into Bitcoin, unless the situation changes later on. At the same time, CRYPTOWZRD stressed that traders cannot overlook the traditional markets, where the weekly candle closed bearish. He described this as an early warning sign that should not be dismissed, as it may serve as a precursor to deeper corrections if unexpected developments occur. In his view, this makes it necessary to remain alert, even in the face of seemingly positive momentum elsewhere. While a productive geopolitical meeting may boost investor confidence, the bearish weekly signal in traditional markets is a reminder that conditions can quickly shift. As for his approach, CRYPTOWZRD stated that his focus remains on the lower timeframe chart formations. He believes this is where quick scalp opportunities are likely to emerge, allowing traders to capture movement without being overly exposed to sudden swings. By tracking these intraday setups, he intends to navigate the volatility while waiting for clearer signals on Bitcoin’s next larger move. Bitcoin Choppy Price Action Limits Clear Setups Rounding up his analysis, CRYPTOWZRD observed that the intraday chart for Bitcoin remained somewhat choppy and leaned bearish. He explained that price action has been confined within a relatively small range, making it less favorable for immediate trading decisions. He emphasized that the key level to watch on the upside is $119,500. According to the expert, a move above this threshold would shift Bitcoin into bullish territory, creating a potential long opportunity. Until that breakout occurs, he prefers to remain cautious rather than force trades in uncertain conditions. On the downside, CRYPTOWZRD noted that a break below $117,000 would signal further weakness and open the door for short positions. For now, he concluded that an ideal approach is to wait for the next decisive move before taking action.
  15. Recent price action has shown that XRP is establishing the $3 price level as a base, and an analysis of its fundamentals indicates various conditions that could push its price to multiple all-time highs. According to crypto analyst David_kml, XRP is no longer confined to speculation but is steadily becoming a vital part of global finance. This trend is very important in its push to new price highs. At the same time, XRP’s chart structure on the weekly candlestick timeframe shows that it may be approaching a breakout similar to Ethereum’s explosive run between 2016 and 2018. Institutional Growth And Expanding Adoption One of the strongest arguments supporting XRP’s ability to register a new all-time high very soon is the steady growth in its institutional presence. David_kml noted that XRP is now being used by leading banks and global payment companies through the XRP Ledger, a development that points to real-world demand for XRP beyond retail speculation. The token’s steady price above the $3.10 price level highlights this strengthening foundation, but the larger story lies in the expanding number of Ripple partnerships and fintech integrations of the XRP Ledger. Speaking of fintech integration, Ripple’s advancements in the past few months have seen the XRP Ledger infrastructure for cross-border settlements growing massively. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has noted that the company is focused on developing the XRP Ledger to the point where it rivals that of the traditional SWIFT system and grabbing a huge chunk of its userbase. At the time of writing, many financial institutions are starting to test and adopt XRP’s network for their payment flows, building confidence that the asset is on track for long-term relevance in global finance. This, in turn, is continuously boosting XRP’s chance of steadily exploding to new price highs, especially now that the global financial sector is gradually warming to blockchain technology. Breakout Pattern On Weekly Timeframe Another factor that lends the voice to XRP’s potential of new all-time highs is the increase in transaction volumes. Interestingly, the technical picture for XRP also complements the bullish case made by fundamentals. In his post, David_kml shared a chart that places XRP’s current price behavior alongside Ethereum’s price action between 2016 and 2018. During that period, Ethereum traded within a prolonged consolidation range before breaking out. This was a move that started one of the most dramatic rallies in Ethereum’s price history, as it carried its price from under $15 to well over $1,000. XRP’s weekly chart now shows a similar setup. XRP has been consolidating in a range near $3, and the breakout point is forming just above $3.25. This structure suggests that XRP could be on the cusp of a powerful surge that has the ability to mimic that of Ethereum’s run in 2018. Analysts such as Dark Defender and Egrag Crypto have previously pointed to this kind of fractal pattern by pointing out the fact that XRP is building momentum independent of Bitcoin and Ethereum. If this plays out well, XRP’s breakout could extend beyond its most recent peak of $3.65 and set the stage for new all-time highs in the coming weeks and months. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
  16. The cryptocurrency market was impressive for most of the week, with Bitcoin and large-cap altcoins leading the charge. While BTC ran up to a new all-time high around $124,100, the other top cryptocurrencies, like Ethereum and Solana, flirted with their former record-high prices. Most notably, the price of Ethereum continued its positive form, briefly touching the $4,800 level on Thursday, August 14. The latest on-chain data suggests that ETH and other altcoins might only be at the start of an extended rally, with the potential to outpace Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization. ERC20 Stablecoin Supply Hits New All-Time High Of Nearly $130 Billion In a Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, CryptoOnchain shared that the latest data signals that the market appears to be in the early phase of an altseason. This optimistic hypothesis is based on two primary on-chain metrics: the Stablecoin Liquidity and the Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) metric. Firstly, CryptoOnchain revealed that the total supply of ERC20 stablecoins has witnessed a notable spike, recently reaching an all-time high of around $128.7 billion. Typically, a significant increase in stablecoin supply is often associated with elevated liquidity, allowing investors to take new positions in risk assets like altcoins. CryptoOnchain added: Alongside this, active addresses for stablecoins have broken past 250K for the first time in history, underscoring rising network activity and circulation levels typical before major market rotations. The on-chain analyst also highlighted that the All Stablecoins (ERC20) Exchange Netflow on Binance has witnessed positive inflows in recent weeks, surpassing the $67 million mark multiple times. As CryptoOnchain noted, positive exchange netflows typically indicate increased purchasing power for investors. Furthermore, as shown in the chart above, the BTC Dominance metric faced rejection from its Previous Cycle Bull Run Resistance zone. From a historical perspective, these rejections have coincided with capital rotating from Bitcoin into mid- and large-cap altcoins—an early hallmark sign of the altseason. Ultimately, the combination of the increased stablecoin liquidity and Bitcoin Dominance technical rejection could mark the beginning of a breakout in the altcoin market. CryptoOnchain noted that a strong Ethereum breakout above its “This Cycle Bull Run Resistance” with a continuous downturn for BTC.D would be a key confirmation to look out for. Altcoins Total Market Capitalization As of this writing, the altcoin market is valued at around $1.57 trillion, reflecting an over 1% decline in the past 24 hours. According to data from TradingView, the total capitalization of altcoins has jumped by more than 5% in the past seven days.
  17. Bitcoin is undergoing a structural transformation, and institutional investors are steadily tightening their grip on the cryptocurrency. As of mid-2025, institutional investors are becoming a dominant force in Bitcoin ownership and are steadily capturing a large portion of its circulating supply. Institutional Bitcoin Holdings Barrel Toward 20% Of Supply Recent data shows that institutions, ranging from ETFs to public companies, now control an unprecedented share of Bitcoin, worth hundreds of billions of dollars. Estimates place institutional ownership anywhere between 17 and nearly 31 percent of total supply when also factoring the amount controlled by governments. According to data from Bitbo, entities such as ETFs, public and private companies, governments, and DeFi protocols collectively hold more than 3.642 million BTC, equal to about 17.344% of the total supply. At today’s prices, that represents roughly $428 billion worth of Bitcoin locked away in institutional treasuries. ETFs are the largest contributors, with over 1.49 million BTC, while public companies such as Strategy, Tesla, and others account for 935,498 BTC. Strategy’s role is especially noteworthy, as the firm’s relentless accumulation strategy in recent years has seen it amass 628,946 BTC, or about three percent of the entire circulating supply. Bitbo data shows private companies hold 426,237, worth $50.17 billion, and about 2.03% of the total circulating supply. BTC mining companies own 109,808 BTC (0.523% of the total circulating supply), while DeFi protocols own 267,236 BTC (1.273% of the total circulating supply). Bitcoin holdings by category. Source: Bitbo Other reports, including a joint study by Gemini and Glassnode, suggest the numbers could be even higher. Their findings point to centralized treasuries composed of governments, ETFs, corporations, and exchanges controlling up to 30.9% of circulating Bitcoin, which equates to over 6.1 million BTC. This increase represents a 924% surge in institutional control of Bitcoin compared to a decade ago. Chart Image From Gemini: Bitcoin treasury holdings by entity type Is Bitcoin The New Wall Street Playground? Bitcoin’s rise in its early years was based on a mix of enthusiasm from retail investors and long-term conviction from early adopters, but the market’s balance of power is shifting. According to the holding data, Bitcoin is increasingly becoming much less affordable for retail traders and is now becoming a playground for large Wall Street institutions. Institutional demand for Bitcoin has not been confined to corporations and ETFs alone. Governments are beginning to make their presence felt, and the United States took the most notable step earlier this year. In March 2025, the US government established a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve filled with seized and forfeited digital assets. Other governments like El Salvador and Bhutan are also accumulating Bitcoin through intentional, ongoing purchases, further tightening the supply in circulation Some analysts believe this could reduce Bitcoin’s price volatility and support its price growth over the long term. On the other hand, the concentration of Bitcoin among a relatively small number of entities could undermine its decentralization and the natural growth of its price. Either way, the data shows that Bitcoin is now becoming Wall Street’s newest playground. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $117,460. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
  18. Bitcoin prices have now crashed by over 4% after reaching a new all-time high on August 14. The crypto market leader remains in consolidation, potentially gathering momentum for the next leg up. Amidst this stable market structure, a popular trading expert with the X username KillaXBT provides insights into possible price developments for the next month. CRT Model Flags September As Pivotal For Bitcoin’s Bull Cycle In an X post on August 15, KillaXBT outlines potential BTC price trajectories via in-depth technical analysis of the monthly chart. Using the candle range theory (CRT), the renowned analyst postulates that the premier cryptocurrency would be entering a pivotal month in September during which it could produce a cycle top. Looking at the asset’s performance in August, KillaXBT notes that Bitcoin formed a monthly low at $111,986, before reclaiming its monthly open at $115,747 and even surging higher in line with previous predictions. Notably, the premier cryptocurrency swept above its previous all-time high before experiencing a crash by over 4% Based on the monthly chart, the renowned analyst also explains that the Bitcoin market has now experienced five consecutive green monthly candles. However, the recent rejection indicates that price movement and momentum are taking on a parabolic curve. Therefore, price movement in September presents a crucial moment to confirm market direction. For this next month, KillaXBT nudges investors to watch whether BTC can hold above the current monthly open at $115,747. A sustained hold could pave the path for a move toward the $125,000–$127,000 regions, representing a marginal extension of the rally and potentially setting up another test of investor conviction at higher prices. However, KillaXBT also warns that Bitcoin opening the month of September with a new all-time high may not necessarily signal an uptrend continuation, but also indicate the cycle top. On the other hand, a breakdown below the monthly open would expose BTC to downside risk, with $111,986, the monthly low, acting as the first major support. It is worth stating that a loss of that level could accelerate a corrective phase. Bitcoin Price Overview At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $117,559, reflecting a slight 0.66% price decrease in the past week. On larger timeframes, the premier cryptocurrency also reflects marginal price changes of +0.78% and -1.36% on the weekly and monthly charts, underscoring a choppy market environment despite recently setting new all-time highs. Featured image from Pexels, chart from Tradingview
  19. Oliver Michael, the CEO of Tokentus, has again provided a bullish outlook for XRP. This time, he predicted that the altcoin could reach as high as $13 and outlined factors that could serve as catalysts for this significant price surge. XRP Eyes Surge To $13 With These Catalysts Oliver Michael predicted in an interview that XRP could rally to $13 at some point if it sustained its current bullish momentum. He alluded to the Ripple SEC lawsuit, which just concluded and how it could spark several ripple effects, which would act as catalysts for the next leg up for the third-largest crypto by market cap. One of these ripple effects is the potential approval of the XRP ETFs. Michael noted that the SEC can now go on to approve these funds since the legal battle against Ripple is over. Furthermore, he raised the possibility of BlackRock filing for an XRP ETF and indicated that the altcoin is likely to record a parabolic rally if this happens, considering BlackRock’s position as the world’s largest asset manager. It is worth noting that BlackRock has said that it has no plans to file for an XRP ETF at the moment. However, XRP lawyer John Deaton believes that the world’s largest asset manager will still file to offer this fund within a year from now. If so, this could drive significant inflows into the XRP ecosystem, considering the success that the firm has recorded with its Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. More Catalysts For The Altcoin Meanwhile, Oliver Michael also expects more Ripple partners to emerge now that the SEC lawsuit is over. This will help enhance XRP’s utility as more companies adopt Ripple’s payment services. Notably, the crypto firm has also made great strides to expand its presence globally by acquiring platforms like the stablecoin platform Rail and brokerage firm Hidden Road. Another reason why the Tokentus CEO believes that XRP can reach this $13 price level is based on his expectation that retail investors will develop a greater interest in the altcoin now that Bitcoin and Ethereum have already pumped significantly. Therefore, they will turn to XRP as the third-largest crypto, which may have more upside than BTC and ETH. Michael remarked that XRP’s move to the upside could happen really fast, similar to its rally of over 300% from below $1 to $3 last year. The altcoin already rallied to as high as $3.6 this year, boasting a 33% year-to-date (YTD) gain. However, based on Michael’s prediction, the XRP price could still reach new highs in the coming months. At the time of writing, the XRP price is trading at around $3.10, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.
  20. Week Ahead: 18-22nd August 2025; Highlights include Jackson Hole, FOMC minutes; Japan & Canada CPI; PBoC, RBNZ, Riksbank Newsquawk Week Ahead Highlights: 18-22nd August 2025 MON: N/A. TUE: US Building Permits (Jul), Canadian CPI (Jul). WED: RBNZ Announcement, Riksbank Announcement, FOMC Minutes, Bank of Indonesia Announcement, PBoC LPR, UK Inflation (Jul), EZ Final CPI (Jul), New Zealand Trade Balance (Jul). THU: Fed Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, EZ/UK/US Flash PMIs (Aug), EZ Consumer Confidence (Aug). FRI: Fed Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, Japanese CPI (Jul), German GDP Detailed (Q2), UK Retail Sales (Jul), Canadian Retail Sales (Jun). SAT: Fed Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium CANADA CPI (TUE): The BoC will use the upcoming inflation data to help guide its future rate path, though it is only one factor, as the Bank remains on hold to assess the impact of US trade policies. In July, rates were left at 2.75% in a unanimous decision with some members noting sufficient support for the economy while others saw a potential need for more. This 2.75% level is the centre of the BoC’s neutral estimate, suggesting limited room for cuts, depending on tariff effects. Minutes indicated that tariff impacts on consumer prices have so far been modest, wage growth and unit labour costs have eased, and the recent CAD appreciation has lowered import prices. Inflation expectations remain anchored, and none of the three MPR tariff scenarios point to a sharp rise in inflation, with headline inflation peaking at 2.5% even in the escalation scenario. The BoC appears comfortable with current inflation trends and may focus more on the labour market and economic growth going forward. Still analysts note that rate cuts remain possible if growth weakens and tariff-driven inflation stays contained. PBOC LPR (WED): The PBoC is likely to keep rates at their current levels, with the 1-year LPR at 3.00% (the rate most new loans are based on), and the 5-year LPR at 3.50% (the reference rate for mortgages). As a reminder, Chinese banks refrained from any adjustments to the LPRs last month, which was as expected and followed the sweeping cuts across rates in May, including reductions to the PBoC funding rates, the LPRs, and deposit rates by banks. Desks are of the view that with rates already relatively low, further easing may be less effective than fiscal measures. Further, some are of the view that the PBoC may want to keep powder dry in the event of escalations with the US. RBNZ ANNOUNCEMENT (WED): Money markets are pricing in an 89% likelihood that New Zealandʼs central bank lowers its Official Cash Rate by 25bps, to 3.00%, and an 11% probability for rates to be left unchanged at the current 3.25% level. As a reminder, the RBNZ maintained the OCR at 3.25% at its last meeting in July, which was widely expected, following a prior streak of six consecutive rate cuts, although it signalled potential future actions, noting that if medium-term inflation pressures continue to ease as projected, the Committee expects to lower the OCR further. The RBNZ also stated that the economic outlook remains highly uncertain and heightened global policy uncertainty and tariffs are expected to reduce global economic growth which will likely slow the pace of New Zealand’s economic recovery and reduce inflation pressures. The Minutes from the meeting revealed that the Committee expects to lower the Official Cash Rate further, broadly consistent with the projection outlined in May, and that the case for keeping the OCR on hold at the July meeting highlighted the elevated level of uncertainty and the benefits of waiting until August considering near-term inflation risks. Further, it was revealed that the Committee discussed the options of cutting the OCR by 25bps to 3.0%, or keeping it unchanged at 3.25%, and some members emphasised that further monetary easing in July would have provided a guardrail to ensure the recovery of economic activity. The rhetoric from the central bank since then has continued to highlight trade-related uncertainty; RBNZ Chief Economist Conway suggested that the full impact of tariffs is uncertain and they are constantly monitoring the data, with uncertainty over tariffs likely to reduce businesses’ investment and inflation in the mediumterm, as tariffs will mean a weaker global economy and weaker global demand. He also reiterated the view regarding scope to lower rates further if inflation continues to moderate. As such, the latest inflation data for New Zealand for Q2 has been softer-thanexpected and could support the case for a cut as CPI Q/Q printed at 0.5% (exp. 0.6%, prev. 0.9%) and with the annual figure at 2.7% Y/Y (exp. 2.8%, prev. 2.5%), while a contraction in jobs growth during Q2 (-0.1% vs. exp. -0.1% and a prev. +0.1%) and slight uptick in the unemployment rate to (5.2% vs. exp. 5.3%, prev. 5.1%) could also influence policymakers to ease policy. Try Newsquawk free for 7 days RIKSBANK ANNOUNCEMENT (WED): The Riksbank is expected to keep rates steady at 2.00%, in-fitting with the Q3ʼ25 rate path, which indicates virtually no chance of a cut (under 2% probability). Further out into Q4, the rate path prices in some chance of a cut – though Governor Thedeen said this is not a promise of further cuts, but rather is a “best estimate”. As it stands markets currently assign 82% of a hold. Recapping the last meeting, the Bank opted to keep rates steady (as expected); the accompanying commentary was downbeat, highlighting that the economic recovery has lost momentum. For the upcoming meeting, the Bank has had two inflation reports to digest; June CPIF printed above expectations, Julyʼs metrics also remained elevated but were more-orless in line and Core CPIF Y/Y was a touch below expectations whilst M/M matched expectations. Overall, this works in favour of keeping rates steady, though lower growth will keep the Bank wary. SEB thinks the Bank will stand pat, and will continue to signal a cut later in the year. Analysts favour a 25bps cut in September, citing weak economic growth and labour market, but is ultimately contingent on slowing inflation after the summer. This view is also shared by Handelsbanken, pushing back their call for a cut from August. FOMC MINUTES (WED): The Fed held rates steady at 4.25-4.50% as expected, with Governors Waller and Bowman both voting for a 25bps rate cut, in line with their comments ahead of the blackout period. Fed’s Kugler did not vote. Given the marketʼs dovish shift in implied pricing of Fed rate cuts ahead following the soft July jobs report (traders now fully discount two 25bps reductions in 2025, with some probability of a third), traders will be particularly attentive to any arguments for rate reductions; additionally, while US CPI was in line with expectations in the month, PPI surged, leaning back against dovish calls. The Fedʼs July statement noted elevated uncertainty around the economic outlook, removing Juneʼs line that it “has diminished”. On the economy, it said recent indicators suggest activity moderated in H1, a change from Juneʼs description of solid growth. Other language was unchanged: unemployment remains low, labour market conditions are solid, and inflation is somewhat elevated. There was no indication of imminent cuts, reaffirming its data-dependent stance. The Fed reiterated it will assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks when considering future adjustments. At his post-meeting press conference, Fed Chair Powell leaned hawkish and pushed back on expectations for a September rate cut, stressing that significant data is due before the meeting, and no decision has been made. On tariffs, he said it is reasonable to expect a one-off price rise, but emphasised that the Fed would act to prevent “serious inflation”. Powell reiterated that policy remains modestly restrictive. On what would prompt a cut, he noted risks on both sides of the mandate, suggesting a more neutral stance would be appropriate if risks were balanced. He said inflation remains above target, while the labour market is at or near maximum employment. Upside risks remain for inflation, while employment faces downside risks, though inflation is further from target than jobs. On the consumer, he noted spending has been very strong in recent years but may now be slowing to a healthy level. On the dissents from Waller and Bowman, Powell said such differences were unsurprising and described this as one of the Fedʼs better meetings. UK INFLATION (WED): At the time of writing, there is no published consensus for the release. As a reminder, the prior report showed a larger-than-expected rise in headline and underlying inflation, while the services print held steady at 4.7% (vs. expectations of a decline). Pantheon Macroeconomics attributed this to another “jump in food prices, falls in motor fuels last June dropping out of the annual comparison and unwinding clothes discounting.” This time around, Pantheon Macroeconomics expects that a “rise in motor fuel prices and a jump in airfares should offset slower core goods inflation.” Accordingly, the consultancy forecasts July headline (3.7%) and services inflation (4.8%) to exceed the MPCʼs forecast from the May Monetary Policy Report by 30bps and 10bps, respectively. Moving forward, Pantheon Macroeconomics expects inflation to peak at 4% in September. From a policy perspective, this could cause a headache for the MPC as it would be the report prior to the November MPR. Some desks argue that it would be tough for the BoE to stick to its quarterly pace of rate cuts if such an outcome is realised, particularly given the hawkish level of dissent at the August meeting on account of inflationary developments. Market pricing concurs with this view, with the next 25bps cut not fully priced until March next year. A soft outturn for the upcoming report could see a slight dovish reaction. However, given the expected uptick in inflation, any such bets are likely to be limited. FED JACKSON HOLE SYMPOSIUM (THU-SAT): The list of Jackson Hole speakers will be released before the event (it has already been confirmed that Fed Chair Powell will deliver remarks on August 22nd at 15:00BST/10:00EDT). The confab has been historically used by Fed speakers to signal upcoming policy changes, although that hasnʼt always held true in recent years. Since the downbeat jobs report, markets have started to price in a September rate cut, and several Fed speakers have alluded to such an outcome (Daly, Kashkari, Bostic). However, others appear more reluctant (Musalem, Schmid). Treasury Secretary Bessent has been urged the Fed to begin a rate cut cycle with a 50bps reduction in September, but Daly has said this does not seem warranted – likely a view shared by others on the Fed, to avoid the feeling of a panicked move. Nonetheless, Fed speakers at Jackson Hole will give their views on policy and the economic outlook, and explain their thoughts on the recent NFP and inflation data. The NFP data bolstered September rate cut bets, with the CPI being deemed not as hot as feared and bolstering rate cut bets with September becoming fully priced. However, a super-hot PPI report saw this dovish pricing unwind somewhat. Aside from policy, a lot of focus is on the next Fed Chair, where US President Trump may be able to appoint two new Governors, providing Powell steps down after his term as Chair ends. Try Newsquawk free for 7 days UK FLASH PMI (THU): At the time of writing, there is no published consensus for the release. As a reminder, the prior report showed the July services PMI declined to 51.2 from 52.8, manufacturing ticked higher to 48.2 from 47.7 and the composite slipped to 51.0 from 52.0. The accompanying report noted “the sluggish output growth reported in July reflected headwinds of deteriorating order books, subdued business confidence and rising costs, all of which were widely linked to…last autumnʼs Budget and the broader destabilising effect of geopolitical uncertainty.” This time around, analysts at Investec look for improvements in the manufacturing, services and composite components. However, it urges caution that “this trend higher may not be sustained moving forward, particularly if concerns grow over potential tax hikes in the Autumn, and/or if the pace of rate cuts starts to slow. From a policy perspective, a soft outturn could pour cold water over the recent uptick in UK GDP. However, the inflation release the day before will likely have a greater impact on the macro narrative surrounding the UK. EZ FLASH PMI (THU): EZ Manufacturing PMI is forecast at 49.5 (prev. 49.8), whilst Services is expected at 50.7 (prev. 51.0), and Composite at 50.6 (prev. 50.9). In terms of sentiment proxies, German Ifo missed expectations across the board, but Current Conditions and Business Climates improved from the priors, whilst Expectations were stable. Conversely, the ZEW saw sizeable pullbacks from the prior releases, with respondents reportedly disappointed by the EU-US trade deal. Ahead of the release, Investec pencils in a “level of 51.2 for the composite PMI index, but a sustained improvement looking ahead would take a strengthening in services activity as well. Meanwhile, analysts at Oxford Economics suggest “The composite index for the Eurozone matched an 11- month high in July, despite a marginal downward revision in the final release. However, the rate of growth remained modest. Moreover, next week’s results for August may signal some softening in growth momentum, judging by the declines in the Sentix and ZEW surveys.” UK RETAIL SALES (FRI): At the time of writing, there is no published consensus for the release. In terms of recent retail indicators, BRC retail sales for July rose 1.8% Y/Y (prev. 2.7%) with the accompanying report noting “with sales growth at these levels, it is barely touching the sides of covering the GBP 7bln new costs imposed on retailers at the last Budget. If the upcoming Autumn Budget sees more taxes levied on retailersʼ shoulders, many will be forced to make difficult choices about the future of shops and jobs, and ongoing pressure would push prices higher.” Elsewhere, the Barclaycard Spending report noted that growth “was predominantly driven by clothing retailers, who had their strongest month of growth since September 2024, as Julyʼs changeable weather led consumers to double up on purchases for both rainy and sunny weather.” For the upcoming ONS report, Oxford Economics pencils in a 0.2% M/M decline in July due to “the level of sales in the non-food and non-store categories in June being much higher than in previous months,” so it thinks that there’s scope for some payback in the July report. JAPANESE CPI (FRI): National Core CPI for July is forecast to ease to 3.0% Y/Y from 3.3% in June. Analysts at ING expect headline CPI to cool to 3.1% Y/Y from 3.3%, as falling utility prices offset continued gains in food costs, while base effects are set to drive a rebound in monthly figure to +0.2% M/M (prev. -0.1%). The desk notes that easing energy prices and government subsidies will keep headline inflation on a downward trend, though services inflation remains firm, underpinned by wage growth and resilient domestic demand. Markets will watch for signs of underlying inflation persistence that could influence BoJ policy; at the time of writing, market-based pricing is not fully discounting a rate hike this year, with around 17bps of tightening baked in following the latest stronger-than-expected Japanese GDP data. Copyright © 2025 Newsquawk Voice Limited. All rights reserved. Registered Office One Love Lane, London, EC2V 7JN, United Kingdom · Registered Number 12020774 · Registered in England and Wales. newsquawk.com · +44 20 3582 2778 · info@newsquawk.com For Real Time Updates visit Global-view.com The post Newsquawk Week Ahead Highlights: 18-22nd August 2025 appeared first on Forex Trading Forum.
  21. The Solana price experienced all phases of the crypto market this week, starting with a muted performance of around $180. However, the past seven-day period took a better turn when the altcoin surged above the $200 mark, rising as high as $205 on Thursday, August 14. Unfortunately, the Solana price didn’t enjoy this return above the $200 level for long, crashing—like the rest of the crypto market—back toward its early-week position around $180. A popular crypto analyst on the social media platform X has revealed that SOL’s downturn was no coincidence. Why SOL Keeps Falling Under $188 In 2025 In an August 15 post on the X platform, crypto pundit Burak Kesmeci evaluated the broader performance of the Solana price in 2025 and its impact on recent price action. Specifically, the on-chain analyst identified the $188 level as crucial to Solana’s recent price movements. This evaluation revolves around the Fixed Range Volume Profile (FRVP) indicator, which provides insights into the distribution of trading volume across various levels on a price chart. In essence, the FRVP indicator helps identify regions with the most trading activity within a specific period. According to Kesmeci, the FRVP high-volume trading level currently lies around the $150 Solana price region. The crypto analyst noted that investors can expect SOL to continue its upward trajectory as long as its price stays above this high-volume trading level. Kesmeci, however, noted that another significant level in the FRVP is the Value Area High (VAH), which represents the upper boundary of the value area (a price range where 70% of the volume traded). The VAH level is often considered a resistance zone where prices may stall or experience a reversal. The crypto analyst identified $188 as the Value Area High (the green line in the chart above) for the Solana price. According to Kesmeci, the altcoin has struggled to stay above this VAH level so far in 2025—a trend witnessed in the past day. What Happens If Solana Price Keeps Retreating? Further in the post on X, Kesmeci pinpointed $170 – $179 as another Solana price region with significant trading activity. The analyst revealed that this zone could act as a support cushion should the price of SOL witness a correction. Kesmeci added: If Solana can shift its high-volume trading level upward, the bullish trend could strengthen. As of this writing, the price of Solana sits just above $180, reflecting a nearly 5% decline in the past 24 hours. Nevertheless, this drab 24-hour performance was not enough to push the altcoin’s weekly action into the red. According to CoinGecko data, the SOL price is up by over 4% in the last seven days.
  22. Bitcoin is trading in the $117,000 price region following a rather eventful week, which allowed investors to experience both sides of the market volatility. Notably, the premier cryptocurrency established a new all-time high at $124,457 before experiencing a sharp crash to below $118,000 driven by recent US PPI data. As enthusiasts await the asset’s next move, prominent analytics firm Glaasnode has unveiled the potential price targets based on short-term holders’ (STH) market activity. Short-Term Holder Cost Basis Tips Bitcoin To Race Towards $144K In an X post on August 16, Glassnode shares data from its Bitcoin STH cost basis model, which suggests the cryptocurrency is headed for an overheating region. For context, short-term holders refer to entities that acquired their BTC within the last 155 days. Their cost basis, i.e., average price of acquisition, often serves as a proxy for the sentiment and profitability of newer market entrants, thus dictating short-term price dynamics. Glassnode’s on-chain data shows that Bitcoin’s STH cost basis has now climbed to $107,000, with standard deviation bands indicating the next crucial resistance at $127,000. Notably, this price level aligns with the +1σ band, often viewed as a “heated” market threshold. This zone is expected to act as a major pivot point, either marking the onset of consolidation or serving as the launchpad for a euphoric final leg upward. However, if Bitcoin can decisively break above $127,000, the STH deviation bands suggest it may trigger accelerated market buying momentum, potentially pushing the price toward the +2σ band at $144,000 zone. Notably, the +2σ band is termed as the overheating region as it often coincides with local or cycle top and frequently introduces significant sell pressure from investors. Meanwhile, the base STH cost basis at $107,000 now serves as a crucial short-term support; therefore, a breakdown below this could imply weakening confidence among recent buyers. In such a bearish scenario, market attention would turn to the lower deviation -1σ band at $93,000, at which investors may expect some price stability. Bitcoin Price Overview At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $117,396, reflecting a price decline of 1.02% in the past 24 hours. Meanwhile, daily trading volume has also crashed by 33.56% and is now valued at $70.56 billion. Notably, popular analyst Ali Martinez tips the premier cryptocurrency to soon make a recovery after the flash crash of last week. The market expert explains that Bitcoin always produces a price rally following any PPI-induced decline.
  23. The US dollar continued to unwind last month's gains. Last week it fell against all G10 currencies, but the dollar bloc. It was more mixed against emerging market currencies. The Argentine peso was the best performer, gaining 2% but the Argentine political and economic conditions appear worsening and a weaker rather than a stronger currency looks needed. Meanwhile, the market toyed with the idea of a 50 bp cut by the Federal Reserve next month, but the firmer than expected PPI and the apparent continued strength of the US consumer (retail sales grew at a 4% annualized rate in the three-months through July) left the Fed funds futures settle little changed on the week, pricing in more than a 90% chance of a quarter-point cut. The main high-frequency economic data point in the coming days is the preliminary August PMI. However, the impact is likely to be minimal. The Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole conference in the second half of the week may draw attention. This year's theme is particularly timely: "Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy." Among the G10 central banks, Sweden's Riksbank may wait until late in Q4 to continue its easing cycle, while a quarter-point cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is more likely. It will bring the target rate to 3.00%. The swaps market sees the terminal rate at 2.75%. The UK and Canada report July CPI figures but neither central bank is likely to cut rates next month and by the time they meet again, they will have more current data in hand. US Drivers: It may not be the consensus, but we continue to see the dollar's direction to be strongly influenced by US rates. It is not coincidental that US two- and 10-year rates have fallen this year, except in May and July and the Dollar Index fell in the first six months of the year before bouncing in July. The break of the pattern was in May. Rates rose but DXY fell, though the least since January. Some Fed official comments coupled with the PCE deflator implications of the higher PPI report have dampened the budding speculation of a 50 bp cut next month, Data: This week's data will likely have a negligible impact on the outlook for next month's FOMC meeting, but the Fed's annual conference in Jackson Hole (August 21-23) could provide additional color. Powell was clear last month that given the reduced supply of labor (immigration policy) and weaker demand (slowing jobs growth), the unemployment rate is particularly useful as a gauge of the balance of the supply and demand for labor. Housing starts may help economists forecast Q3 GDP (residential investment), existing home sales and preliminary August PMI pose headline risk but are not the markets' focus. The market also seems somewhat less sensitive to the Philadelphia Fed's survey as it is too early the month to necessarily be representative. The minutes from the late July FOMC meeting will be scrutinized. Recall that even though two governors dissented from the decision to standpat, the market gave it initially a hawkish hearing and took short-term rates and the dollar higher. In any event, the employment data a couple of days later seemed to put the issue to rest. Prices: With last week's losses, the Dollar Index overshot the (61.8%) retracement of the July 1-August 1 rally. It frayed, but did not close below, the trendline connecting the July lows, which begins the new week near 97.70. Below there, the low from late July, near 97.10, beckons. The Dollar Index has fallen by about 2.6% since the August 1 high. Given the data and the fact that the market has more than a 90% chance of a quarter-point cut next month discounted, some consolidation seems warranted. EMU Drivers: The euro benefits by being the most liquid alternative to the US dollar. The inverse correlation between changes in the euro and changes in the two-year US yield is hovering near -0.70. Since the pandemic, it has rarely been more extreme. The rolling 60-day correlation reached almost -0.60 earlier this month, the most since early 2023. It is now a little around -0.55. The euro's inverse correlation with changes in the German two-year yield is around -0.25 over the past 30 and 60 sessions. Data: The eurozone data this week includes the preliminary August PMI, and June trade and construction figures. Negotiated wage settlements for Q2 will be reported. Recall that they rose by 2.45% in Q1 25, the least since the end of 2021. The bar for another rate cut is high and the data does not have the heft to be impactful. The swaps market price has slightly less than a 10% chance of a cut next month and almost a 25% chance of a cut at the following meeting in late October. Prices: The euro's recovery from last month's slide continued last week and the single currency reached $1.1730 to recoup a little more than three-quarter of the recent loss. Ahead of the late July high (~$1.1790), the euro needs to overcome the trendline connecting the July highs. It is found near $1.1750 at the start of the new week. A close below $1.1600 weakens the technical tone. PRC Drivers: Beijing is committed to keeping the yuan broadly shadowing the US dollar. This is unlikely to change any time soon. That the yuan is undervalued against the dollar is a dog-bites-man story. All the G10 currencies but the Swiss franc, are undervalued according to the OECD's model of purchasing power parity. By this calculation the euro, yen, and Canadian dollar are undervalued by more than the yuan, but they all reflect an overvalued dollar. Data: It is a subdued week for Chinese data. Without strong signals from Beijing, the banks will most likely keep the prime loan rates steady at 3.0% and 3.5% for the one-year and five-year tenors, respectively. SWIFTS's July report of currency usage for global payments is not as significant for the yuan as it may have been before China introduced its own system for settling yuan trades, which, incidentally, according to reports, will not accept trades that imply rate outside of the approved band. China's industrial output and retail sales were weaker than expected but because the weakness could be attributed to the hot weather, rains, and floods, Beijing may not feel a strong urgency to respond, allowing the current fiscal measures to run their course. Prices: Few of China's many critics acknowledge that the PBOC set the dollar's reference rate at the lowest since last November and has been adjusting the dollar's daily fix by more on average than it did at the start of the year. Still, with a few exceptions, the dollar has been in a CNH7.15-CNH7.20 trading range since late May. The 20- and 50-day moving averages have converged in the CNH7.1795-CNH7.1825 area. Yet, the dollar has fallen against the onshore yuan in all but four weeks since the end of April. The real complaint of the critics is not so much on direction as speed of the adjustment Beijing is managing. JPN Drivers: The dollar-yen exchange rate continues to be more sensitive to the changes in US interest rates than is generally recognized. The 30-day rolling correlation typically is higher with changes in the 10-year yield rather than the two-year yield, but that is not the case now. The correlation of changes in the exchange rate and the two-year yield is almost 0.80. It has not been above there since mid-2023. The 30-day correlation between changes in the exchange rate and the 10-year yield is slightly lower, near 0.75. It slipped below 0.10 in late May. The rolling 60-day correlation is near 0.66 for the two-year US yield and near 0.57 for the 10-year yield. Data: With Q2 GDP already reported, the tertiary industry index is of, well, tertiary importance. Local participants do not put much weight on the PMI. The July trade balance, which has deteriorated from June in 14 of the past 20 years, may draw some interest given the disruption emanating from the US. Despite the undervalued yen, Japan reported a JPY2.22 trillion trade deficit in H1 25 compared with a JPY3.37 trillion deficit in H1 24 and a JPY7.05 trillion shortfall in H1 23. Exports on a year-over-year basis will likely fell for the third consecutive month in July. Lastly, Japan reports the July CPI. The Tokyo report out a few weeks ago stole the thunder. The headline and core rates likely eased by around 0.2% to 3.1%. Prices: In an unusual commentary about foreign central banks, US Treasury Secretary Bessent opined that the Bank of Japan was slipping behind the inflation curve. Still, that and the stronger than expected Q2 GDP (with Q1 revised up) lifted expectations a little but are still less than what was anticipated at in late July. On August 8 almost 15 bp of tightening this year was discounted. Now a little more 17 bp is priced into overnight swaps (compared with 21 bp on July 24). Surveys suggest many are thinking that October would be a reasonable timeframe for the BOJ. Yet there are about 12 bp of tightening discounted, up from nearly 10 bp on August 8, but down from 14 bp at the end of July. The dollar was turned back last week from JPY148.50, a whisker below the (50%) retracement of the losses since the August 1 high, slightly shy of JPY151. Last week's low was near JPY146.20. A break could spur a test on the JPY145.85 area. UK Drivers: Sterling was bolstered by what was understood as a hawkish cut by the Bank of England earlier this month. In a close vote, it cut the base rate but increased its near-term inflation forecasts and Governor Bailey sounded even more cautious the forward guidance. This was followed in recent days by a stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP, helped by stronger government spending (1.2% quarter-over-quarter, after 0.4% contraction in Q1) and a mostly better than expected jobs report. The year-end rate implied by the swaps market is about 3.82%, up from 3.68% on August 1. Sterling remains sensitive to the dollar's broad direction. The rolling 30-day inverse correlation of changes in sterling and the Dollar Index is near 0.80, while the 60-day correlation is a little lower. Data: There are three high-frequency data points begin in the middle of the week. The first is the July CPI. The base effect makes for a difficult comparison. Headline CPI fell by 0.2% in July 2024. So even a flat reading for July would boost the year-over-year rate to 3.6% from 3.8% (rounding). The UK CPI rose at an annual rate of about 6.8% in Q2 and 2.4% in Q1. The second data point is the preliminary August PMI. The composite finished last year at 50.4 and was 51.5 in July. It is not expected to have change much this month. The week concludes the July retail sales. The 0.6% gain in June, excluding gasoline, disappointed after the dramatic 2.9% drop in May. The median forecast in Bloomberg's survey is for a 0.5% increase in July. Prices: Sterling extended its recovery off the August 1 low (~$1.3140) to almost $1.3600 last week. It has retraced more than (61.8%) of its July losses and settled above the down trendline connecting the July highs. The five-day moving average is almost a cent above the 20-day moving average, and the daily momentum indicators are rising. Pullbacks this month have been brief and shallow. The price action is constructive. There is little to stand in the way of a return to the multi-year high recorded on July 1 near $1.3790. Still, given the extent of the move and the upcoming data, we suspect consolidative forces will emerge shortly. CANADA Drivers: The Canadian dollar continue to appear sensitive to the US dollar's broad direction. The 30- and 60-day correlation of the changes of the USD dollar against the Canadian dollar and the Dollar Index are near their highest in over a year (both a little above 0.7)0. There was a slight inverse correlation with the US S&P 500 over the past 30 days, but it finished the week with a small positive correlation (~0.03), little different than the rolling 60 session correlation. The correlation of changes in the exchange rate and WTI has improved to the best in years (30-day correlation is near 0.60 and the 60-day correlation is around 0.25). The sign may be somewhat counter-intuitive as it indicates that the US dollar, not the Canadian dollar, has tended track oil prices a little better recently. Data: The most important high frequency report in the coming days is Canada's July CPI on August 19. Headline CPI rose at an annualized rate of around 1.6% in Q2 after a 6.0% annualized increase in Q1. In Q3 24, Canada's CPI fell, and it was flat in Q4 24. However, the base effect in July is favorable. Canada's CPI rose by 0.4% in July 2024 and as this drops out of the 12-month comparison the year-over-year rate will move lower from the 1.9% pace seen in June. The underlying core rates are firm, averaging 3.05% in June, up from 2.8% in March and 2.5% at the end of last year. After the disappointing jobs July jobs report on August 8, the market has been fully discounting a rate cut for the December meeting. Canada also reports June portfolio flows. In the first five months of 2025, foreign investors sold about C$18 bln of Canadian stocks and bonds. In the January-May 2024 period, foreigners were net buyers of C$85 bln of Canada's financial assets. Still, knowing the portfolio flows in real time would not have help trade the Canadian dollar. It fell by nearly 3% against the US dollar in the first five months of 2025 and rose nearly 4.5% against the greenback in the first five months of this year. Prices: The US dollar rose to meet the (61.8%) retracement objective of the decline from the August 1 high seen near CAD1.3820. It consolidated before the weekend. It settled on session highs, and the post the highest close of the month. Follow-through buying sets the sights on that August 1 high (~CAD1.3880). The lower end of the recent range is around CAD1.3720. The momentum indicators are not generating a strong signal, though the five-day moving average is above the 20-day moving average, and both are rising. Australia Drivers: The Australian dollar remains sensitive to the broader movement of the US dollar. The rolling 30- and 60-day inverse correlation between changes in the Australian dollar and the Dollar Index is hovering around -0.75. It is near the most in a year. The inverse correlation of the changes between the Australian dollar and the US dollar against the Canadian dollar slightly near less (~0.85) over the past 30 sessions and a somewhat less over the past 60 sessions (~-0.72). Data: After last week's 25 bp rate cut (to 3.60%) and labor market report, participants may not be sensitive to this week's preliminary August PMI and consumer inflation expectations survey. Recall that the composite PMI rose for the second consecutive month in July, the first back-to-back increase since February-March 2024. It stood at 53.8 in July, a new cyclical high. It was at 50.2 at the end of last year and 50.2 in August 2024. Prices: Despite posting an outside down day on August 14, there was no follow-through selling of the Australian dollar ahead of the weekend. Instead, the Aussie held the week's low seen near $0.6480 on August 12 and pushed to almost $0.6525. While there may be some resistance in the $0.6540-50 area, last week's high (~$0.6570) may be more important from a technical perspective. Mexico Drivers: Changes in the greenback against the peso and Dollar Index are near the most correlated of the year, nearly 0.75 (for the past 30 sessions). They were inversely correlated for most of February. Since the end of Q1 24, the rolling 30-day correlation has spent little time above 0.60. The 60-day correlation set the high for the year, slightly above 0.65 in early August and is near there now. The correlation between changes in the exchange rate and changes in US interest rates is weak (<0.10). The 30-day correlation between changes in USD-MXN and USD-CAD rose to nearly 0.40 from the year's low recorded in late May through mid-June of less than 0.10. Data: Data from the second quarter are likely to have limited impact on the peso's exchange rate and the outlook for monetary policy. More important is the CPI reading for the first half of August. Yet before the central bank meets again (September 25), it will have the full month of August CPI and the first half of September's in hand. Also, the US tariff policy may be clearer. The current cash target rate is 7.75% and the swaps market sees a terminal rate of near 7.25%. A resumption of the Fed's easing cycle may give Banxico more room to maneuver. Prices: The US dollar overshot the (61.8%) retracement of its losses against the Mexican peso this month on August 14. It rose slightly above MXN18.85 but settled below the retracement objective (~MXN18.80). Dollar sellers emerged and pushed the greenback below MXN18.70 before the weekend. Still, the price action warns that support near MXN18.50 is formidable. Initial support may be in the MN18.60-62 area. Disclaimer
  24. Ethereum is holding firmly above the $4,400 level after recently reaching $4,792, just shy of its 2021 all-time high. The world’s second-largest cryptocurrency has seen weeks of massive gains, driven by strong institutional interest, shrinking supply on exchanges, and growing demand across decentralized finance. Bulls remain in control as momentum pushes ETH closer to record-breaking territory. However, risks are also building as the market enters a new phase of volatility. After such a sharp rally, profit-taking and speculative rotations could trigger stronger pullbacks. Key data highlights the intensity of current activity: Ethereum’s on-chain volume has surged to $12.93 billion, signaling heightened transaction flows and renewed investor participation. Historically, spikes in on-chain volume have coincided with critical turning points, either fueling further breakouts or marking the start of consolidations. The coming days will be crucial in determining whether Ethereum extends its bullish trajectory or enters a cooling-off phase. Ethereum Heads Toward 2021 Levels Amid Market Uncertainty With ETH trading above $4,400 after setting a local high at $4,792, market participants are watching closely as the asset approaches its former peak. The question now is whether Ethereum will mirror its explosive rallies of the past or pause for a consolidation before making a sustained breakout. On-chain data reinforces the bullish narrative. Ethereum’s on-chain volume has surged to nearly $12.9 billion, putting it close to the $16 billion peak recorded in 2021. This growing transactional activity highlights both renewed market participation and strengthening fundamentals. Historically, such spikes in on-chain activity have accompanied major upward phases, reflecting not just speculation but also deeper network utility. The broader market context adds weight to the discussion. Bitcoin appears to be entering its final bull phase move, typically a period that determines whether capital begins to rotate heavily into altcoins. Many analysts believe this could mark the beginning of altseason, with Ethereum leading the charge. At the same time, supply dynamics remain highly favorable. Exchange balances are shrinking, while OTC reserves dry up, signaling institutional accumulation. This tightening supply picture could amplify any bullish breakout. Weekly Chart Analysis: Key Levels To Hold Ethereum’s weekly chart highlights a decisive bullish breakout, with ETH trading at $4,425 after reaching a peak of $4,792, just below its all-time high from 2021. This rally represents one of the strongest weekly moves in years, fueled by consistent buying momentum and tightening supply conditions. Price action shows ETH has broken above long-term moving averages, with the 50-week SMA at $2,771, 100-week SMA at $2,761, and the 200-week SMA at $2,442 now far below current levels. This positioning confirms a strong uptrend structure, suggesting ETH has firmly transitioned into bullish territory after a prolonged consolidation phase. The current resistance remains the psychological $4,800–$5,000 zone, which aligns with the 2021 all-time high. A sustained breakout above this level would open the path toward uncharted territory, with analysts pointing to possible targets between $5,500 and $6,000 if momentum continues. However, risks remain as ETH approaches these levels. Weekly candles show sharp upward extensions, raising the potential for short-term pullbacks. Still, as long as ETH holds above $4,200–$4,300 support, the structure remains bullish. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
  25. Ethereum’s rally stalled just 1.94% below its November 2021 all-time high of $4,878 before sellers forced a pullback. Now, ETH USD is trading near $4,450, retreating after a +29% climb in the past 30 days. The inability to break through resistance highlights the technical overhang that continues to cap upside momentum even as institutional flows remain a dominant driver of short-term performance. EthereumPriceMarket CapETH$537.94B24h7d30d1yAll time ETF Inflows Crushed After 8 Day $3.7Bn Streak – Are ETH USD Outflows Here to Stay? The rejection coincided with the first net outflow from U.S. spot Ether ETFs in nine trading sessions. According to Farside data, $59.3M left the products on Friday, ending an eight-day streak funneling $3.7Bn into BlackRock’s ETHA, Fidelity’s FETH, and Grayscale’s Ethereum Mini Trust. (Source) Since their July 2024 launch, spot Ether ETFs have amassed $12.68Bn in cumulative flows, but the end of the inflow streak introduces a new datapoint for traders weighing the durability of the rally. https://cointelegraph.com/news/ether-etf-outflow-day-inflow-streak-billions-eth-price-predictions ETF flows have become one of ETH’s most reliable proxies for institutional positioning. Analysts note that sustained inflows are critical for challenging the $4,878 ATH ceiling. Standard Chartered raised its year-end ETH target to $7,500 this week, contingent on the continuation of strong net ETF demand. DISCOVER: Best Meme Coin ICOs to Invest in 2025 SharpLink Loss Compound Reversal in ETH USD Sentiment The flow reversal is the shadow of a weak earnings print from SharpLink Gaming, the second-largest Ethereum digital asset treasury company. As the firm reported a $103.4M net loss in Q2, equity markets panicked, triggering a -15% stock decline. Roughly $87.8M of the hit came from non-cash impairment charges linked to liquid staked ETH being marked at quarter-low prices of $2,300. While SharpLink’s 728,804 ETH holdings are now worth more than $3.3Bn at spot, the accounting treatment amplified headline losses and pressured sentiment around Ethereum treasuries more broadly. The confluence of a failed breakout, ETF outflows, and a major treasury holder posting steep paper losses reinforces the importance of institutional demand and accounting treatment in setting the near-term ETH USD narrative – not the retail market. DISCOVER: Next 1000X Crypto: 10+ Crypto Tokens That Can Hit 1000x in 2025 Ethereum ETFs vs Treasury Accumulation: What’s Driving ETH USD Price? The ETF reversal underscores the fragility of momentum when institutional vehicles pause their buying. Yet beneath the surface, corporations’ accumulation of Ethereum treasury remains a powerful counterweight. SharpLink’s headline $103M Q2 loss obscured that its 728,804 ETH position, now worth $3.3Bn, has steadily compounded through staking rewards. At a current yield of 3.4%, SharpLink has already booked more than 1,300 ETH in rewards this year, an organic inflow that cushions against valuation shocks. Other treasury firms have quietly expanded exposure, with BTCS Inc. and DeFi Development Corp adding reserves in Q2. The Block estimates the cumulative market cap of public companies holding ETH has surpassed $10Bn, marking Ethereum’s arrival as a treasury asset class in its own right. This is structurally important: while ETF demand is flow-driven and reactive to sentiment, treasury allocations are sticky, recurring, and often tied to operating models in DeFi infrastructure, gaming, or tokenized yield platforms. ETF outflows highlight short-term sentiment, but the parallel growth of treasury balance sheets indicates a strategic layer of demand less sensitive to daily price swings DISCOVER: 9+ Best High-Risk, High-Reward Crypto to Buy in 2025 ETH USD Price Analysis: Where Does Ethereum Price Go From Here? As ETH USD reels from the ATH resistance rejection, Ethereum is currently trading at a market price of $4,397 (representing a 24-hour change of -0.95%). Now seeking a lower foothold after further losing footing around $4,490, ETH USD price action seems likely to test lower historical support at the $4,115 price level. (ETHUSD) To strengthen this case, a steadily rising 20DMA seems intent on converging with this lower support level in the coming days. Notably, the 20DMA support has been untested by ETH USD for 10 days, meaning there has been no moving average support for the previous 8 days of ETF inflows. A successful consolidation at this level seems likely to trigger a second re-test of ATH resistance in the week ahead. After all, price is rarely entirely rejected from a first resistance test. Such a move would also be bolstered by confidence from a decline in the RSI, which has been overheated at a strong bearish signal for a number of days. ETH USD will likely be caught by well-established support around $3,750 in the event of a breakdown. DISCOVER: Best New Cryptocurrencies to Invest in 2025 The post Ethereum Price Rejects at ATH as ETF Flows Reverse and SBET Drops appeared first on 99Bitcoins.
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