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Agnico Eagle Mines (TSX, NYSE: AEM) has nearly tripled its equity position in junior explorer Fury Gold Mines (TSX, NYSE American: FURY) with a further C$4.3 million ($3 million) investment. In a press release Tuesday, Fury announced that Agnico had acquired approximately 6.73 million of its shares and warrants to buy the same number of shares for a per-unit price of C$0.64. The warrants have an exercise price of C$0.80 per share, valid for three years. Fury Gold Mines opened the trading session at C$0.53 apiece, and ticked 2% higher at C$0.54 as of 10:45 a.m. ET. Its market capitalization is estimated at C$88.2 million ($64 million). Agnico previously held 3.75 million, or 2.3% of Fury’s shares. The new investment takes its holding to approximately 6.3%, potentially rising to 9.9% if the warrants are exercised. According to Fury, most of the new investment (C$3.9 million) will be used for this year’s exploration at its Committee Bay project in the Kitikmeot region of Nunavut. The project is located approximately 180 km northeast of Agnico’s Meadowbank mine and covers a district-scale area of more than 2,500 sq. km. From its exploration efforts since 2019, the Fury team has identified numerous high-grade gold occurrences throughout a 300-km strike length on the property. The most significant is the Three Bluffs deposit, which has a mineral resource estimate of 2.1 million tonnes indicated grading 7.85 g/t gold (for 523,835 oz. contained gold) and 2.9 million tonnes inferred grading 7.63 g/t gold (for 720,364 oz. contained gold). “We are pleased to have Agnico Eagle, one of Canada’s premier companies and a top global gold producer, make an additional investment that will permit Fury to advance our understanding of the exploration potential at our Committee Bay project in Nunavut,” Fury Gold Mines CEO Tim Clark said in a news release. “We believe the Arctic is likely to become increasingly important for future mineral exploration and with this in mind, we are excited to accelerate our plans to build on past drilling success.” In addition to Committee Bay, Fury also holds two gold projects in the James Bay region of Quebec, both near the formerly Newmont-owned Éléonore mine. The company recently added to its portfolio with the acquisition of Quebec Precious Metals (TSXV: QPM).

The US Supreme Court declined on Tuesday to hear an appeal by the Apache Stronghold seeking to block the development of the Resolution Copper mine in Arizona. The mine is a joint venture between Rio Tinto (ASX, LON, NYSE: RIO) and BHP (ASX: BHP). The advocacy group, comprising members of the San Carlos Apache tribe of southeastern Arizona and conservationists, challenged a 2024 lower court decision that permitted a federal land swap allowing the mining companies to acquire land considered sacred by the Apache for the mine project. A federal judge in Arizona had temporarily halted the land transfer on May 9, pending the outcome of the Supreme Court appeal. The Resolution Copper project is 55% owned by Rio Tinto and 45% by BHP, with Rio serving as the operator. Timeline – Rio Tinto’s 26-year struggle to launch Arizona’s Resolution copper project The companies have so far invested over $2 billion into the project, which is poised to become North America’s largest copper mine. It contains the third-largest known copper deposit globally, and could meet over a quarter of US copper demand for decades. Apache Stronghold first filed suit in 2021, claiming the project violates constitutional and statutory protections for religious freedom. They argue the mine would destroy the Oak Flat, known as Chi’chil Biłdagoteel in the Apache language, a sacred site where Western Apaches have conducted ceremonies for generations, including a traditional four-day coming-of-age ritual for young women. The group also says the mine would violate an 1852 treaty in which the US government promised to protect Apache lands and ensure the tribe’s “permanent prosperity and happiness.” Congress authorized the land swap as part of a 2014 defense spending bill signed by then-President Barack Obama. The legislation allowed Rio Tinto and BHP to exchange private lands for Oak Flat, located about 70 miles (113 km) east of Phoenix. Rio Tinto hopes Trump will clear path for Resolution copper project The transfer was contingent on the completion of an environmental impact statement, which was released in January 2021, during the final days of the first Trump administration. However, in March 2021, the Biden administration withdrew the statement, halting the transfer temporarily. The US Forest Service is expected to reissue the environmental report, potentially allowing the land swap to proceed as early as June 16. Copper ambitions Rio Tinto is ramping up its copper portfolio to meet growing global demand, which analysts predict will soon outpace supply. The company’s Oyu Tolgoi mine in Mongolia began underground production in 2023 and is projected to become the world’s fourth-largest copper mine by 2030. In Peru, Rio Tinto has partnered with Chile’s state-owned Codelco and Canada’s First Quantum Minerals to develop the La Granja project, one of the world’s largest untapped copper deposits. Rio is also investing in cleaner extraction technologies, including Nuton—a bioleaching process developed with Arizona Sonoran Copper (TSX: ASCU)—to recover copper from tailings and low-grade ores. (With files from Reuters and Bloomberg)

Another day where markets hang on to a positive sentiment following a similar picture from yesterday - risk-assets are in the green and safe-havens are lagging on the day. The US dollar as recently shines on optimist flows from markets, though as the DXY is still trading below the 100.00 level. The Greenback is leading today's forex action. On the other hand, the Yen is not showing such a rosy picture. Comments from the Minister of Finance Katsunobu Kato about reducing the issuance on long-end bonds made Japanese yields go down and the Yen got dragged with it. How do yields moving down influence the Yen? For a quick-to-understand explanation, longer-end yields have been hedging up with the latest inflation data being high - a situation where bond traders start to sell some parts of the curve to price in chances of hikes around the curve and reduce their exposure. Funds in Japan are big buyers of all types of government bonds to provide interest, so if there is less supply of bonds and fewer bonds to buy for these entities, the rarity creates more demand, and then yields go down again. When Yields go down in Japan, investors make more money by placing money in other higher yielding assets like US Treasuries or Equities, hence the Yen goes down. You can read more on the Yen slide here. USD/JPY Intra-Day Technical Analysis close USDJPY 30M Chart, May 27, 2025. Source: TradingView /media/images/Screenshot_2025-05-27_at_10.02.06AM.width-1400.png USD/JPY rallied on the recent comments from the Minister of Finance Kato, forming a double bottom - now up 1.11% on the session. Last week's USD weakness created a descending channel from which prices broke out overnight. The RSI is overbought on all timeframes below 1H but the momentum is strong. Having just crossed the last key pivot at 144.350, eyes are on these zones: For immediate support, there is the MA 20 standing at 143.800. A deeper retracement would retest the most recent Support Zone situated between 143.400 to 143.530. Keep an high on a retest of the upper-bound of the descending channel, though prices are far and would require USD weakness to retrace that much - not the theme of the day. For resistances on a pursued breakout, look at the Resistance Zone 144.700 - 144.850. The next key resistance eyes to the 145.00 psychological level. Safe Trades! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © {CURRENT_YEAR} OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The New Zealand dollar is sharply lower on Tuesday. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5950, down 0.83% on the day. A day earlier, the New Zealand dollar touched a high of 0.6031, its highest level since Oct. 2024. RBNZ poised to lower ratesThe Reserve Bank of New Zealand is widely expected to lower rates by a quarter-point to 3.25% on Wednesday. With little doubt about the decision, investors will be focusing on the Reserve Bank's updated forecasts. The markets are looking at another rate cut in July and perhaps one more later in the year, which would lower the cash rate below 3.0%. The RBNZ has been dealing with a weak domestic economy and a deteriorating outlook for the global economy due to US President Trump's erratic tariff policy. The RBNZ would like to continue trimming rates and restore consumer and business confidence. New Zealand's inflation was higher than expected in the first quarter at 2.5%, up from 2.2% in Q4 2024. This is within the Bank's inflation target of 1%-3% and means that inflation levels won't prevent the Bank from lowering rates on Wednesday. US durable goods orders plunges, consumer confidence surgesIn the US, Durable Goods Orders declined by 6.3% m/m in April, after a 7.5% gain in March, which was the fastest pace of growth since July 2020. The soft reading managed to beat the market estimate of -7.8%. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence index, which has fallen steadily this year, surged to 98.0 in May, up from 86.0 in April and blowing past the market estimate of 87.0. We'll hear from more Federal Reserve members on Wednesday, which could provide some insights into the Fed's rate path. The Fed has adopted a wait-and-see stance and is widely expected to hold rates for a fourth straight time at the next meeting on June 18. NZD/USD Technical NZD/USD has pushed below support at 0.5978 and is testing 0.5955. Below, there is support at 0.5928There is resistance at 0.6005 and 0.6028 close NZDUSD 1-Day Chart, May 27, 2025 /media/images/NZDUSD_2025-05-27_17-20-09.width-1400.png Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © {CURRENT_YEAR} OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Canada’s Franco-Nevada (TSX, NYSE: FNV) has agreed to acquire a royalty package on the Côté Gold mine in Ontario from a private third party for $1.05 billion in cash. The Toronto-based royalty and streaming company said the deal includes a 7.5% gross margin royalty on gold production from the Chester 1, 2, and 3 claims, which encompass all proven and probable mineral reserves and more than 99.9% of current mineral resources at the site. Côté is one of Canada’s newest and most advanced large-scale gold mines, with a mineral resource base exceeding 16 million ounces in the measured and indicated categories. It is operated as a joint venture between Iamgold (TSX: IMG, NYSE: IAG), which holds a 70% stake, and Sumitomo Metal Mining, which owns the remaining 30%. The mine produced its first doré bar in April last year, reached commercial production that August, and continues to ramp up. Once fully operational, Côté is expected to become Canada’s third-largest gold mine. In its first six years, the mine is projected to produce 495,000 ounces of gold annually, with a life-of-mine average of 365,000 ounces per year. Franco-Nevada expects the transaction to close by the end of June.

Harmony Gold (JSE: HAR) (NYSE: HMY), South Africa’s top gold producer by volume, has agreed to acquire MAC Copper (ASX:MAC)(NYSE:MTAL) for $1.03 billion, accelerating its strategic shift into copper through a key Australian asset. The all-cash deal would give Harmony full ownership of MAC’s only asset, the CSA copper mine in central western New South Wales. CSA is among Australia’s highest-grade and oldest operating copper mines, with a history stretching back nearly 150 years. At 1.9 km, it is also one of the country’s deepest underground operations. Harmony is offering $12.25 per MAC Copper share, representing a 20.7% premium to the company’s last closing price in New York. MAC shares jumped 17% to $11.90 in premarket trading Tuesday after the company announced its board unanimously supports the offer. MAC’s current market capitalisation stands at approximately $847 million. Harmony shares initially dropped as much as 7.5% in Johannesburg before recovering slightly. In premarket trading on the NYSE, the stock was down nearly 10.5% to $14.22. Strategic shift Harmony, like industry peers Newmont (NYSE: NEM) and Barrick Gold (TSX: ABX) (NYSE: B), is diversifying into copper – a metal critical to electric vehicles and power grid infrastructure. MAC’s acquisition is a “significant step forward in transforming Harmony into an increasingly de-risked, higher-quality, global gold and copper producer through disciplined and effective capital allocation,” chief executive officer Beyers Nel said in the statement. The deal expands Harmony’s copper footprint in Australia, where it entered in 2022 with the Eva copper project in Queensland. The Johannesburg-based miner expects to begin production at Eva by 2028. With CSA and Eva combined, Harmony aims to produce 100,000 tonnes of copper annually within five years. Last year, CSA alone produced about 41,000 tonnes. Outside Australia, Harmony also owns the Hidden Valley gold mine and jointly holds the Wafi-Golpu copper-gold project with Newmont (NYSE: NEM)(TSX: NGT) in Papua New Guinea. The company is increasingly steering away from gold-only operations as mining the metal becomes more complex and costly in South Africa.

The Japanese yen is down for a second straight day. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 144.14, up 0.91% on the day. BoJ core CPI beats forecast, hits 2.4% BoJ core CPI rose to 2.4% in April, after three straight readings of 2.2% and above the market estimate of 2.3%. This was the highest level since Jan. 2024. Japan's Services PPI also rose to 3.1% in April, lower than the upwardly revised 3.3% gain but above the market estimate of 3.0%. This release comes on the heels of Japan's core CPI, which jumped in April to 3.5% from 2.4%, the highest level in two years. Core inflation has held above the Bank of Japan's 2% target for over three years but the central bank has been very slow to raise interest rates. Governor Ueda said on Tuesday that the BoJ would adjust its rate policy "as needed" if economic expectations are met, a vague reference but still an acknowledgement that the next move will be a rate hike. The markets expect the BoJ to maintain its wait-and-see mode for some time, with a rate hike unlikely before September at the earliest. The BoJ has revised lower its growth and inflation projections to the current economic uncertainties, particularly those related to US trade policy. The central bank meets next on June 17 and is widely expected to hold its policy settings steady. US core durable goods expected to plungeUS markets are back in action after the Memorial Day holiday on Monday. US Durable Goods Orders are expected to slide by 7.8% in April, after a 7.5% gain in March, which was the fastest pace of growth since July 2020. As well, The Conference Board Consumer Confidence index, which has fallen steadily this year, is expected to improve to 87.0 from 86.0. USD/JPY Technical USD/JPY faces resistance at 144.58 and 146.58143.50 and 141.50 are the next support levels close USDJPY 1-week Chart, May 27, 2025 /media/images/USDJPY_2025-05-27_17-23-40.width-1400.png Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © {CURRENT_YEAR} OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Overview: Speculation that Japan will take measures to stem the rout in the government bond market has helped spur a short-covering bounce in the dollar after finished last week poorly and sold off yesterday. There has been a sharp drop in Japanese long-term bond yields, and although the dollar is higher against all the G10 currencies today, the yen is the weakest, off nearly 0.75%. Given the intraday momentum indicators and sentiment toward the dollar, we suspect North American participants will sell into the greenback's gains. European benchmark 10-year yields are off 1-3 bp today. The 10-year US Treasury yield is four basis points lower near 4.47%. Equities are mostly higher today, but several large bourses in the Asia Pacific region did not participate, including China, South Korea, Taiwan, and India. Europe's Stoxx 600 fell in the last three sessions of last and is building on yesterday's gain today to recoup nearly everything it lost in second half of last week. US index futures are 1.3%-1.7%. Gold is trading heavier. It has returned to the pre-weekend low near $3290. July WTI is extended yesterday's gains. It held $60 at the end of last week and recovered to near $62 yesterday, which is where it is currently hovering near. USD: The 50% tariff on the EU that the US threatened on Friday was postponed until July 9 when the 90-day grace period from the reciprocal tariffs expire. Recall that before the weekend, the euro had recouped most what was lost on the US threat as the many thought it was negotiating ploy. PredictIt.com had around a 1-in-3 chance of them actually coming into effect. Still, President Trump's postponement saw the Dollar Index extend last week's losses to almost 98.70 yesterday, a new low for the month. A short-covering rally, following indications that Japanese officials are moving to stabilize the bond market. By early European turnover, the Dollar Index reached 99.40. A move above 99.50 targets 100.00. US (and UK) markets re-open after a long holiday. US high-frequency data today includes April durable goods orders, where a sharp drop in Boeing orders will depress the headline. Excluding transportation orders, a recovery from the 0.4% fall in March is expected and shipments excluding defense and transportation look flattish. March house prices are due. May's Conference Board's consumer confidence measure likely improved after hitting five-year lows in April. EURO: The euro rose above $1.1400 yesterday for the first time since late April. It has been sold back to nearly $1.1335 today. We expect buying to emerge on this pullback, with the intraday momentum indicators turning up. At the end of last week, Moody's lifted the outlook for Italy's debt to positive. Italy's 10-year premium over Germany has narrowed from last month's high near 130 bp to around 100 bp, a four-year low. The eurozone confidence measures improved marginally but as is often the case, elicited little market response. Tomorrow the ECB's April inflation survey will be reported. It is not expected to change much from March’s 2.9% and 2.5% expectations for one- and three-years, respectively. CNY: China reported at in April industrial profits rose 1.4% year-to-date, year-over-year. Profits have fallen for the past three years. It had, as is usually the case, little market impact. Chinese companies compete by seeking market share and the patient capital of banks, especially state-owned banks, rewards market share, arguably on ideas that a strong market share can be monetized and integral to long-term competitiveness. This stands in contrast to market-central capitalism, which is impatient and appears to pay a premium for short-run profits. The competition for market share was driven home by BYD yesterday, which announced price cuts of up to 34% om 22 of its electric and plug-in hybrid models, following its best month of sales in 2025 (April) and outpaced Tesla among EV sales in Europe for the first time. The dollar fell to a new low since last November against the offshore yuan yesterday. It reached nearly CNH7.1615 before it recovered to session highs near CNH7.1830. It is recovering further and reached almost CNH7.1930. The PBOC set the dollar's reference rate at CNY7.1876. Yesterday, the fix was set at CNY7.1833 (CNY7.1919 at the end of last week). It was the biggest adjustment of the fix since April 7 and the first below CNY7.19 since April 3. JPY: Hawkish comments by BOJ Governor Ueda and signals from officials that it may be preparing to take action in the bond market is helping the dollar stage a possible key upside reversal against the yen. It wants to slow its bond purchases, but long-term yields are surging. It wants to continue to raise rates as price pressures remain above target, but the economy is weak. It contracted in Q1 and the uncertainty emanating from the US trade balance clouds the outlook. Meanwhile, new farm minister Koizumi announced the release of another 300k metric tons of rice from the government's warehouses to drive the price down. It had already sold 200k tons, but with little success in stemming the price surge. The greenback made a new low for the move (slightly below JPY14215) and recovered to trade above yesterday's high (~143.10). It reached nearly JPY144.05 in Europe today. Japanese long-term bond yields plummeted. The 30-year yield fell almost 20 bp, to a two-week low. The 40-year yield dropped nearly 25 bp. We suspect the bulk of the dollar’s gains are behind it. Initial support may be near JPY143.50 now. Unrealized losses at Japanese lifer insurers from their bond holdings are growing but may be offset by gains unrealized gains on their equity portfolios. The Topix index of insurances companies for the second consecutive session yesterday, for the first time this month. It is slightly higher on the month. It is up slightly less than 1% year-to-date. Separately, Japan reported a 3.1% year-over-year increase in April producer service prices, down from 3.3% in March, which matched the peak from earlier this year and is the highest in a decade. Still, more importantly in terms of the central bank's reaction function is Tokyo's May CPI due at the end of the week. After a large jump in April (to 3.5% from 2.9%) it may tick slightly lower. However, the core and ex-fresh food and energy measures are expected to have risen further. The Bank of Japan finds itself in a couple of binds. GBP: Sterling posted a bullish outside up day last month and follow-through buying lifted it to nearly $1.3545 before the long holiday weekend, a new three-year high. The gains were extended yesterday to almost $1.3600. In thin turnover yesterday, it settled above its upper Bollinger Band for the second consecutive session, for the first time this year. The upper Bollinger Band is near $1.3550 today. It is consolidating quietly today, inside yesterday's range. The stronger than expected CPI and retail sales reported last week saw the market push out the next Bank of England rate cut to November. The year-end base rate is seen near 3.80%, up from 3.50% at the end of April. The divergence of rates with the eurozone and the US new tariff threat on the EU have helped drive sterling to its best level against the euro since early April, which also lends the pound support against the dollar. The next area of chart resistance may be in the $1.3630-50 area. CAD: The US dollar slipped to a new marginal low for the year yesterday near CAD1.3685. The greenback has been trending lower since reaching nearly CAD1.48 in February, its highest level since 2003. The odds are around 30% in the swaps market, down from more than 65% before the CPI report. The US dollar has approached a weekly uptrend line, which depends on how it is drawn, but may come in near CAD1.3680. Yesterday's US dollar recovery, leaving a potentially bullish hammer candle stick in its wake, may mean a near-term low is in place. It is approaching a band of resistance (CAD1.3780-CAD1.3800). This week's data highlight is Q1 GDP due May 30. After 2.6% annualized growth in Q4 24, the median forecast in Bloomberg's survey is for a 1.7% expansion in the first quarter. Economists in the survey project a contraction in the current quarter. Bank of Canada Governor Macklem was in interviews over the weekend, underscoring that US tariffs are the "biggest headwind" for the Canadian economy. AUD: The Australian dollar made a new high for the year yesterday slightly above $0.6535. We have been targeting the $0.6550 area, which corresponds to the (61.8%) retracement of the decline since the $0.6940 high recorded at the end of last September. It is softer today, near session lows in Europe (~$0.6445). Australia reports the April monthly CPI tomorrow. It is likely to softer after being stuck at 2.4%-2.5% for the previous four months. The median forecast in Bloomberg's survey is for 2.2%, which would be the lowest since last October. Whatever will drive the central bank's decision at its next meeting (July 8), it will not be the April CPI. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand, on the other hand, meets tomorrow, and is widely expected to cut its target rate 25 bp to 3.25%. The swaps market had another cut fully discounted by the end of the year and a little more than a 50% chance of another. MXN: The US dollar slipped to a marginal new seven-month low against the peso yesterday. It briefly traded below MXN19.1850. Recall that last week's high, set on Thursday, was near MXN19.46. The greenback is firmer today and is pushing above MXN19.26 in Europe. Last Friday's high was near MXN19.3760 and this month's down trendline comes in near MXN19.3960 today. Tomorrow the central bank will release its inflation report. Recall that it recently halved this year's growth forecast to 0.6%. This may still be optimistic. The IMF's latest projection is for a 0.3% contraction this year. The median forecast in Bloomberg's survey sees a 0.1% decline in output. The central bank expects the recent rise in CPI to be temporary and looks for the headline and core rates to continue to moderate, with both at 3% at the end of next year. Disclaimer

Log in to today's North American session recap - May 26, 2025 The Kiwi is on top of majors to conclude a low volume day, as US and UK Markets were closed. Stock indices futures nonetheless close green in most parts of the world, dragged up by a positive sentiment which took the Nikkei 225 up 2% on the day. US index Futures close up above 1% with the Nasdaq leading at 1.47%. Bitcoin is consolidating above end-2024 all-time highs, closing down a small -0.35%, trading around $109,255. A picture of today's performance for major currencies close Currency Performance, May 26 - Source: OANDA Labs /media/images/Screenshot_2025-05-26_at_4.18.51PM.width-1400.png The Dollar Index (DXY) is trading just below 99.00, having broke the level and coming back towards the end of the session. It will be important to see if open markets tomorrow gives a boost to the The NZD is leading in expectation of the RBNZ Rate decision coming in tomorrow, with the recent survey announcing that businesses expect higher prices. You can access the survey here. The Kiwi is closing up 0.42%. A strong Retail Sales beat in Canada did not do much to lift the Canadian Dollar on the day, though the loonie is off a strong performance from Friday. USDCAD is broadly unchanged. Chart of the day - Gold close XAU/USD 2H Chart, May 26 - Source: TradingView /media/images/Screenshot_2025-05-26_at_4.41.41PM.width-1400.png XAU/USD is closing down -0.60% after a positive sentiment dragged on the demand for the precious metal. Gold prices did not break the highs of the descending channel, with a bearish divergence in a overbought RSI - The metal is still at recent highs and momentum is back to neutral. Prices are situated between the 61.8% retracement from the April Impulsive move at $3,360 - and the current pivot at $3,330. A breakout both ways is still possible as the MA 20 is providing support. Watch any geopolitical news, as today's positive sentiment did not create new demand for the Bullion. Economic Calendar for the May 27th Session close MarketPulse Economic Calendar for May 27 2025 (click to enlarge) /media/images/Screenshot_2025-05-26_at_4.49.25PM.width-1400.png Tomorrow will present a few important economic data releases. The most of the news will be outside of the North-American session, with Consumer Sentiment data coming in Europe at 5:00 A.M. E.T. There will also be a more market-moving event with the RBNZ Rate decision tomorrow at 10:00 P.M. E.T. In the US, focus on a speech from FED's Waller around the same time as he speaks in the 2025 BOJ-IMES Conference in Tokyo, Japan. And do not forget BoJ Governor Ueda speaking tonight at 8:00 P.M. Safe trades! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © {CURRENT_YEAR} OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Newmont (NYSE: NEM, TSX: NGT) commemorated the 10th anniversary of the Red Chris mine in British Columbia and the successful co-management with the Tahltan Nation by announcing an C$8 million ($5.8 million) community investment to benefit the Tahltan communities of Telegraph Creek, Dease Lake and Iskut. The world’s biggest gold miner acquired Red Chris in 2023 when it bought Australia’s Newcrest in a $17 billion deal, and has since been eyeing further expansion in the mineral-rich Canadian province. Red Chris is an open-pit copper and gold mine that employs around 220 Tahltans and generates approximately C$100 million annually in business with the Tahltan Nation Development Corporation (TNDC). The mine pays annual royalties to the Tahltan Heritage Trust and contributes mineral tax revenue to the Province of British Columbia, which is shared directly with the Tahltan Nation. The Red Chris mine is managed in partnership with Tahltan Nation through an impact benefit and co-management agreement ensuring that Tahltan expertise, perspectives and values guide the operation, and serving as a leading example of reconciliatory resource development. Aerial view of the the Red Chris mine in British Columbia. Image courtesy of Newcrest Mining. “We know that our projects and operations can only succeed when the communities that host them are also thriving,” Newmont CEO Tom Palmer said in a statement. “Today, we celebrate our partnership with Tahltan Nation and shared stewardship at Red Chris. Through this community contribution we extend our gratitude for the collaboration Tahltan Nation has helped to foster here as we also show our commitment to a shared vision and shared prosperity for the future.” The investment funds a range of projects aimed at improving community well-being, including development of community-use spaces, recreation facilities and greenhouse space, the company said, adding that a portion of the investment will also support planning and pre-development efforts to improve housing in each community. “This $8 million contribution gets us started on a series of projects that will enrich all our communities,” Tahltan Central Government president Beverly Slater said. “It is another step toward ensuring every Tahltan child, youth, adult and elder directly benefits from resource development in our territory.”

Canadian explorer Aftermath Silver (TSXV: AAG) said drilling at its Berenguela silver-copper-manganese deposit in Peru intersected shallow mineralization, paving the way for an updated resource estimate. Hole AFD129 cut 12.35 metres of 302 grams per tonne silver, 0.66% copper and 10.64% manganese from 2.4 metres downhole, Aftermath said Monday in a statement as it disclosed 16 assays. Hole AFD130, meanwhile, intercepted 35.55 metres of 322 grams silver, 0.58% copper and 6.88% manganese from surface. This included 7.1 metres at 1,174 grams silver, 0.8% copper and 11.14% manganese from 24.4 metres downhole. Vancouver-based Aftermath is in the second stage of an 82-hole, 5,200-metre program of diamond core drilling at Berenguela. Assay results for the final 11 holes will be released shortly, the company said. “Our latest round of results have expanded the known mineralization into areas outside of the previous resource model in the central north area,” CEO Ralph Rushton said in the statement. “We also cut strong manganese mineralization in the far eastern area of the resource where there has been little previous drilling. We’ll be incorporating the latest results into a revised mineral resource estimate which is currently underway.” Strike extended Aftermath shares jumped 8% to C$0.54 in Monday afternoon trading in Toronto. That gave the company a market capitalization of about C$163 million ($119 million). Historical mapping and resource modelling shows that the mineralization extends for about 1,300 metres along strike, Aftermath said. The recent drilling has extended the strike length to at least 1,550 metres with a maximum width of 400 metres in the project’s central part, 250 metres in the western part and 50 metres in the faulted section between the western and central parts. Drilling was carried out at a high angle to mineralization controls, Aftermath said. Intersections are assumed to equate to true thickness. Berenguela hosts a potentially open-pittable silver-copper-manganese resource in southern Peru’s Puno province. Aftermath’s goal is to produce silver, copper metal and a commercial battery-grade or fertilizer-grade manganese product. Aftermath has paid $9.65 million and $3 million in shares so far to acquire all of the project through a 2020 agreement with SSR Mining (TSX, Nasdaq: SSRM). In 2021, EMX Royalty (TSX, NYSE-A: EMX) acquired SSR Mining’s rights to option agreement, so all the payments and a sliding-scale net smelter return royalty ranging from 1% to 1.25% go to EMX Royalty. Berenguela is located about 6 km from road, rail and power lines and four hours from the city of Arequipa by sealed road. The railway is connected to the port of Matarani.

Both the FED and ECB head representatives made speeches on Sunday, 27, and this morning, respectively. As Traders, it is always an advantage to know what tone Central Bank speakers are using and what they are considering for future key decisions. It's only fair to remind that a Dovish Policy aims at stimulating the economy, and easing financial conditions. It is usually associated to weakness in a specific currency, with speeches around when and how much to cut. On the other hand, a Hawkish Policy aims at cooling down inflation and tightening financial conditions. It is usually associated with strength in a specific currency, as the themes are focused on when and how much to hike. FED’s Powell spoke on Sunday afternoon at Princeton University, and ECB’s Lagarde spoke this morning at the Hertie Graduate School in Germany. FED's Powell Defends the Federal Reserve in Princeton Jerome Powell made remarks for a Baccalaureate Ceremony at the Princeton University, from where he graduated 50 years ago. He did not comment about Monetary and Financial Policy for the FED though gave a show of strength from the Central Bank amid persistent criticism from President Trump, with the President calling the head of the Federal Reserve "Too Late Powell". FED's Powell focused his speech on defending the stimulus from COVID years and how the Federal Reserve had to react to economic uncertainty with no precedent. Donald Trump is trying to push for Cuts. However, the Federal Reserve has indicated throughout past speeches that they are waiting for further news to observe the impact on inflation and the unforeseen US tariff policy. Here are the May 7th FOMC Meeting's most pertinent remarks in those aspects: “In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.” You can access yesterday's speech here and the entire May 7, 2025 Meeting Statement here. ECB's Lagarde and the Euro's role in the Global Economy Christine Lagarde spoke earlier this morning at the Hertie School in Berlin, Germany. While the ECB President avoided commenting on the broader economic outlook or monetary policy, she emphasized the euro’s expanding role in global trade, particularly as the U.S. gradually steps back from its traditional leadership position. Lagarde highlighted that “shifts in the global currency landscape are not unprecedented in monetary history”—a statement that touches on one of the defining macro themes of this decade and beyond. Economists and market participants alike are watching closely to see whether the U.S. Dollar can maintain its dominant reserve status. The speech offers valuable insight, even for traders primarily focused on technical movements, making it a worthwhile read. You can access the whole speech here. More speeches incoming with BoJ's Ueda It's not over for Central Bankers speeches today with the Bank of Japan's Governor Ueda giving a speech at the 2025 BOJ-IMES Conference in Tokyo, Japan. He is expected to speak at 8:00 P.M. E.T. Safe Trades! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © {CURRENT_YEAR} OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Japanese yen has edged lower on Monday. USD/JPY is trading at 142.76 in the North American session, up 0.15% on the day. The US dollar was broadly lower on Friday and declined 1% against the yen. BoJ Core CPI expected to accelerate On Friday, Japan's core CPI for April hit 3.5% y/y, up from 3.2% in March and above the market estimate of 3.4%. This marked the fastest annual pace since January 2023. The spike in inflation was driven by higher food prices. Japan's inflation will remain in focus this week, with BoJ Core CPI and Services Producer Price Index on Tuesday and Tokyo Core CPI on Friday. BoJ Core CPI, one of the central bank's preferred inflation indicators, has held steady at 2.2% for the past three months but is expected to edge up to 2.3% in April. What's next for the BoJ?Inflation has been moving higher and strong readings from this week's inflation reports would support the case for a rate hike from the Bank of Japan. The central bank raised rates in January and has signaled its intent to continue raising rates but the turbulence and uncertainty triggered by the Trump tariffs has forced the BoJ to cut its growth forecasts and adopt a wait-and-see stance on monetary policy. The BoJ views wage growth as a key driver of underlying inflation but wage growth has lagged behind inflation, resulting in weaker consumption than hoped. Governor Kazuo Ueda has said that the uncertainty due to the tariffs has pushed back the timing of underlying inflation reaching the BoJ's 2% target. The BoJ isn't about to telegraph a date for a rate hike and the markets don't expect a move before October at the earliest. USD/JPY Technical USD/JPY tested resistance at 143.07 earlier. Next, there is resistance at 143.72141.93 and 141.28 are providing support close USDJPY 1-Day Chart, May 26, 2025 /media/images/USDJPY_2025-05-26_18-26-42.width-1400.png Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © {CURRENT_YEAR} OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The session remains active despite the U.S and UK markets being closed today, May 26, in observance of Memorial Day and the UK Spring Bank Holiday. While cash equity markets are shut, index futures remain open and are taking cues from strong performances in Europe and Asia, where most indices are trading over 1% higher. Gold is down 0.86%, reinforcing a risk-on sentiment to start the week. In FX, the absence of U.S. flows hasn’t muted volatility. Asia-Pacific currencies showed notable moves, with the New Zealand Dollar leading gains, followed closely by the Australian Dollar. The Japanese Yen, on the other hand, is lagging on the positive sentiment. NZD/JPY Technical Analysis - Intra-Day levels NZD/JPY is an interesting pair to trade when US Markets are closed, as these Asian Pacific currencies tend to experience more volumes. The session is late there, though opportunities are always available. NZD/JPY 4H Chart close NZD/JPY 4H Chart, May 26 2025. Source: TradingView /media/images/Screenshot_2025-05-26_at_9.58.56AM.width-1400.png NZD/JPY has been trading in a range throughout the month of May with an upside breakout that got rejected as Pacific Currencies as got weaker from a dovish cut from the RBA. The main pivot for the range is near current prices, at 86.150. Monitor any break or rejection of this level on the 4h Timeframe. The MA 200 is flat though below current prices, indicating no trend, another contributor to the rangebound price action. NDZ/JPY 1H Chart close NZD/JPY 1H Chart, May 26 2025. Source: TradingView /media/images/Screenshot_2025-05-26_at_10.23.36AM.width-1400.png The pair is approaching the Main Pivot with a mild rejection from today's highs, after a 750 pip rally from the Sunday open. The RSI is also confirming the rejection as the overbought condition did not maintain buying momentum. Buyers will want to keep their hands on the buying trendline from Friday 23, with the next support at 85.70. A rebound from current levels would point towards the Main Pivot at 86.15. Sellers expect to continue the rejection towards the low of the range at 85.37. In the overnight session, the NZD enjoyed some relief from last week’s drag from the Australian Central Bank cut. The outlook for the NZD is unclear, as most expected a cut before the latest New Zealand Survey as we approach the RBNZ Rate Decision on Wednesday, the 28th, at 10:00 PM E.T. Safe trades! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © {CURRENT_YEAR} OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Where is GBPUSD Headed by The Savvy Trader How High Can a Surging GBPUSD Go? This week’s price action in the dollar has been choppy, lacking a clear one-way trend, but the broader tone has been decidedly negative. We opened the week near the highs and are closing near the lows, not an encouraging sign for dollar bulls. Watch GbpUsd A key currency to watch in this context is GbpUsd, which continues to test the upside and a key level around 1.3550. Sellers have consistently stepped in just below it, indicating it remains a psychological and technical cap for now. The market seems to be preemptively pricing in a potential pause but as discussed previously, a break through 1.3550 opens the door to 1.3600, 1.4000, and even 1.4200. Beyond that lies a much larger upside risk toward 1.5700, a level that would imply broader dollar weakness in the macro picture. Looking ahead, the upcoming Monday holidays in both the UK and the US could result in thinner liquidity and distorted moves. Additionally, month-end flows may introduce further volatility and directional ambiguity, as portfolio rebalancing distorts normal trading behavior. Watch GbpUsd 1.4000 options Meanwhile, options markets are flashing signs of increased tension. Implied volatility has been rising, and bank trading desks are reportedly active in GbpUsd call options around 1.4000. This positioning suggests some institutional players are preparing for a breakout although it’s worth remembering that for every option buyer, there is a seller. The market remains finely balanced between breakout potential and resistance defense. Keep in mind that while the dollar hasn’t broken decisively lower yet, the risk-reward increasingly tilts toward further weakness, especially if key resistance levels in crosses like GbpUsd give way. Keep an eye on volatility, upcoming data, and holiday-driven illiquidity, all of which could conspire to accelerate the next directional move. The Savvy Trader is a long-time, highly respected member of the global-view.com community GbpUsd Monthly Chart (added by global-view) Addenden added by global-view Why does GBPUSD have the nickname “Cable?” GBPUSD is called “Cable” because of the transatlantic telegraph cable that was laid in the mid-19th century to facilitate communication between London and New York. In 1858, the first successful transatlantic telegraph cable was laid between the UK and the US. This cable allowed for real-time transmission of financial data, especially currency exchange rates between British and American traders. Since GBPUSD was the most actively traded currency at the time and traders began referring to it simply as “Cable.” While many retail traders call GBPUSD the British Pound, professional traders often refer to it as Sterling or Cable. How High Can a Surging GBPUSD Go? Take a FREE Trial of The Amazing Trader – Click HERE

The Canadian dollar has steadied on Monday after surging 0.90% on Friday. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3714, down 0.13% on the day. Earlier the Canadian dollar improved to 1.3686, its strongest level since Oct. 2024. US markets are closed for Memorial Day and there are no US or Canadian events, which likely will mean a quiet day for USD/CAD. Canada's retail sales boosted by auto salesCanada's retail sales impressed in March, rising 5.6% y/y, up from 4.7% in February and beating the forecast of 3.8%. Monthly, retail sales rose 0.5%, lower than the 0.8% in February but above the forecast of -0.1%. The strong gain was driven by a sharp rise in the sale of motor vehicle sales and parts. This was likely due to consumers buying cars before US tariffs took effect in April. Retail sales excluding autos posted a decrease of -0.7%, below the upwardly revised 0.6% gain in February and shy of the forecast of a flat reading. The decline will have the Bank of Canada worried and supports a rate cut at the June 4 meeting. The markets have priced in a rate cut at around 30%, with Canada's GDP the last key Canadian release before the rate announcement. The BoC will be keeping a close eye on developments in the US-Canada tariff war. If the tariffs between the two countries remain in effect, consumer confidence and spending will be negatively impacted. President Trump's trade policy has been unpredictable, making it difficult for BoC policymakers to make inflation and growth forecasts. USD/CAD Technical There is resistance at 1.3771 and 1.38321.3673 and 1.3612 are support levels close USDCAD 1-Day Chart, May 26, 2025 /media/images/USDCAD_2025-05-26_13-36-07.width-1400.png Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © {CURRENT_YEAR} OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

If you’re asking, “Are gold coins or gold bars a better investment?“—you’re asking one of the most important questions in precious metals investing. The answer depends on your financial goals, investment timeline, liquidity needs, and risk tolerance. This updated 2025 guide compares gold bars and coins side-by-side to help you make the smartest decision. Gold has long been a popular option for investors seeking to diversify their portfolios and protect against market volatility. In addition, gold is often seen as a haven during economic downturns and a hedge against inflation. However, investors often face a dilemma when investing in physical gold: should they invest in gold bars or coins? What is the best size of gold to buy? The ideal size of gold to buy depends on your investment goals, budget, and storage options. Smaller gold bars and coins, such as 1 oz, 10 oz, or 100-gram bars, offer greater flexibility when liquidating your investment. In addition, these sizes are more easily divisible and typically carry lower premiums than larger bars or coins. Larger gold bars, such as 1 kg or 400 oz bars, may offer a lower cost per ounce, as they typically carry lower premiums than smaller bars or coins. However, they are less liquid, which may be more challenging to sell in smaller increments. This option may provide the most cost-effective investment for investors with a substantial budget who can securely store larger bars. Pros of buying gold bars Lower premiums: Gold bars generally have lower premiums than gold coins. This is because the production costs for bars are lower, and bars do not carry a numismatic or collector’s value. Larger sizes: Gold bars are available in a wide range of sizes, from 1 gram to 400 ounces. This variety allows investors to choose a size that best fits their investment strategy and budget. Purity: Gold bars typically have a higher content than gold coins, with most bars being 99.99% pure gold. This higher purity may attract investors seeking the highest gold content possible. Pros of buying gold coins Legal tender: Gold coins are often issued by government mints and carry a legal tender face value, which adds an extra layer of security to your investment. In contrast, gold bars are not considered legal tender. Collectability: Gold coins often feature unique designs, limited mintage, or historical significance, making them more appealing to collectors. This numismatic value can lead to a higher resale value for gold coins than gold bars. Smaller denominations: Gold coins are typically available in smaller denominations than gold bars, which makes them more accessible for investors with a smaller budget. Smaller denominations also provide greater flexibility when liquidating your investment. 2025 Price Snapshot: Bars vs Coins Product Avg. Premium Over Spot Approx. Price (June 2025) 1 oz Gold Bar 1.5% – 2.5% $3,545 1 oz American Gold Eagle 4% – 8% $3,675 Spot price as of May 2025: $3,232/oz Coins remain more expensive per ounce but offer higher resale flexibility. First-Time Investors For first-time gold investors, it’s essential to consider your investment goals, budget, and storage options before deciding between gold bars and gold coins. For example, if your primary objective is to invest in gold as a store of wealth and a hedge against inflation, gold bars may be a better option due to their lower premiums and higher gold content. Additionally, if you have a larger budget and secure storage options, gold bars offer a wide range of sizes to suit your investment needs. On the other hand, if you are interested in the potential collectability and numismatic value of gold, gold coins may be a better choice. Gold coins are also a better option for investors with a smaller budget, as they are available in smaller denominations and can provide greater liquidity when it comes time to sell. Which Is Better for a Gold IRA in 2025? Both bars and coins are eligible for precious metals IRAs, but: Bars are easier for large-volume IRA allocation. Coins like American Eagles and Maple Leafs are IRS-approved and easier to verify. If your IRA contribution or rollover exceeds $25,000, bars may provide better efficiency. For smaller balances or more flexible portfolios, coins offer better liquidity. How much is a 1 kg gold bar worth? The value of a 1 kg gold bar is determined by its Weight and the current market price of gold. To calculate the value of a 1 kg gold bar, you can use the following formula: Value = Weight (in ounces) x Gold Price per Ounce Since 1 kg is equivalent to 32.15 ounces, you would multiply 32.15 by the current gold price per ounce to determine the value of a 1 kg gold bar. For example, if the gold price per ounce is $1,800, the value of a 1 kg gold bar would be: Value = 32.15 ounces x $1,800/ounce = $57,870 Remember that the value of a gold bar can fluctuate daily as the market price of gold changes. It’s also important to consider any premiums or fees associated with buying and selling gold bars, as these can impact your overall return on investment. Investing in Gold Gold can provide a valuable addition to your investment portfolio, offering diversification, a hedge against inflation, and a haven during economic uncertainty. However, whether you choose to invest in gold bars or coins, it’s essential to consider the pros and cons of each option, as well as your investment goals and budget. Gold bars offer lower premiums, higher gold content, and a wide range of sizes, making them an attractive option for investors seeking a cost-effective investment in gold. However, they may be less liquid and need more numismatic value associated with gold coins. On the other hand, gold coins offer legal tender status, collectability, and smaller denominations, making them an appealing option for investors interested in the potential numismatic value and greater liquidity. However, they typically carry higher premiums and lower gold content than gold bars. There is no one-size-fits-all answer to whether gold bars or coins are a better investment. The best option for you depends on your investment goals, budget, and preferences. By carefully considering these factors and weighing the pros and cons of each option, you can make an informed decision that aligns with your investment strategy and helps secure your financial future. If you are interested in learning more about gold and other precious metals, American Bullion is a great resource. They offer a wide range of products and services, including gold and silver coins and bars, as well as IRA services. They also have a team of knowledgeable professionals who can help you navigate the market and make informed decisions about your investments. Contact American Bullion today to learn more about how you can diversify your portfolio with precious metals. The post Bars vs. Gold Coins, What’s The Better Investment in 2025? first appeared on American Bullion.

[Updated for 2025] If you’re wondering, “When is the best time to buy gold and silver?”—you’re not alone. It’s one of the most common questions investors ask, especially during times of inflation, economic uncertainty, or global tension. In this updated 2025 guide, we’ll break down seasonal trends, economic indicators, and expert strategies to help you time your precious metals investments wisely. Besides knowing who to trust when buying gold, every investor is eager to avoid unnecessary loss when purchasing precious metals like gold and silver. In order not to wreck your wallet when buying gold or silver, you need to consider your timing. The best time to buy gold and silver is what you should be capable of analyzing as an investor. Other times, investors also ask when and if they’ll receive reasonable prices later when they plan to sell. The fact is, observing historical records of gold and silver performances each year is the primary way you can ascertain the best buying times for gold and silver. According to financial experts, there are hints from yearly records of gold and silver to aid you in making the best buying decisions. We’ll address these issues carefully. While silver and gold are both liquid assets, both are commodities doomed to fluctuate in price. That’s why you should be careful to not buy at the worst times. The risk of huge loss is real- depending on how you invest in gold, precious either make you or break you. But do not fret- speculating the safer times to invest is almost effortless. 2025 Market Outlook: Gold & Silver Trends Metal Avg. Price Jan 2025 Mid-Year Price (June 2025) Trend Gold $2,280/oz $2,350/oz Bullish Silver $26.50/oz $28.10/oz Bullish Rising inflation forecasts, continued central bank purchases, and geopolitical friction (China-Taiwan, BRICS expansion) are all contributing to steady upward pressure on precious metals. Gold & Silver – Best Buying Seasons If you observe the historical performance of gold from 1975 through 2018, you’ll see that the price usually scales upwards during the first quarter of the year. Then during the summer, the price gradually falls. From late August to September, the price typically starts to rise continually to the end of the year. According to records, March is when you can buy gold the cheapest. The price still stays low throughout the second quarter of the year, making it the best time to buy gold. Here, look at the average performance of gold each month since 1975, when it was allowed to buy gold legally again. Judging from the gains and losses gold mostly encounters each month, the best times to purchase gold are at the very beginning of the year, March, or late April. As winter approaches, gold’s price typically surges. We used the same approach for silver, and it turns out the results aren’t far from that of gold. However, the price of silver is more volatile, and it has the potential to move upwards in percentage than gold. Silver’s volatility contributes to its smaller market, demand fluctuations from stores and industries, and lower market liquidity. The most dips in price happen in January, making it a good time to buy silver if you aim to spend little. After January, silver typically surges throughout the year. You can buy silver without pouring money down the drain around March and towards the end of June to July. These are the best times to buy silver. Seasonal Timing: Best Months to Buy Historical data shows that gold and silver prices tend to dip during certain months, offering smart entry points: Gold: Often weakest in March and June Silver: Tends to drop in June and November This doesn’t guarantee future results, but many investors use these patterns for cost averaging strategies. Take a look at silver’s historical performance since 1975. The Best Month To Buy Gold & Silver Is… There are many reasons to buy gold and silver, but don’t rush to buy because some moments can be unfavorable for purchase. Both gold and silver have a month in the year when it’s best to buy. Since it became legal to buy gold in 1975, on average, the month of March is when gold performs poorly on the market. This makes March the best month to buy gold. Silver is highly volatile; its price trends upwards and downwards quickly and randomly, but there is a time the price dips more, and it’s in June. This makes June the best month to purchase silver, followed by early January and August. More Factors To Consider There are other times investors watch out for when deciding the best time to buy gold or silver. Apart from considering the time of the year, investors should pay attention to the trends in other investments, monitor the gold and silver ratio, and watch out for bullish trends. Other Investments Investors usually make the most buying decisions during unstable financial conditions, when other Investments are shaky. It’s only normal that this happens since silver and gold perform opposite to paper currencies. So, it’s best to buy at these times to avoid losses from other Investments. You also have to stay heads up on economic news and watch the market for instabilities to avoid missing out on gold and silver updates in relation with other investments. Gold/Silver Ratio In simpler terms, the gold/silver ratio is how many ounces of silver makeup one ounce of gold. Therefore, how much silver you can use to buy gold. When the gold/silver ratio is high, it’s a good time to purchase silver as it can prove valuable. Conversely, when the gold/silver ratio drops, it’s the right time to pile up gold for future returns. Bullish Trends The emergence of a bullish trend or bull run is a characteristic of foreign exchange and the stock market. Many investors buy gold and silver in a bull market, so demand overpowers supply, and prices constantly rise. After the price rise, the trend is likely to decline and come back up again more valuable. In other words, it’s advisable to watch out for bullish trends and buy right before it starts or when it starts. When You Should Sell Gold & Silver Some people enjoy the benefits of buying physical gold and silver, and some others have no intention of selling them because they see them as a huge source of wealth to pass on to the next generation. Well, gold and silver, when properly invested in, are hedges and a safe haven for financial needs, so it only makes sense. Unlike other paper currencies, gold and silver have their inherent values and are not confined to government laws. Investing in precious metals means that you can come back to reap from your holdings whenever you need cash. Gold and silver bullion bars and coins shine amongst other investment assets due to their liquidity and universal acceptance. In times of financial emergencies or crises, they can provide a huge return when you sell them. Should it be that there is no crisis or financial difficulty, watch out for gold and silver worth in relation to other assets. If gold gets expensive, it’s a good time to sell your bullion. For most investors, selling can be a way to balance their asset portfolio while lowering. Generally, you’re likely to lock in the most profit when metal prices are appreciated. In investing, the intention is to buy low and sell high. The right time to sell: Desperate need for cash: As said before, gold and silver are excellent investment assets, so at bad financial times, selling them is the fastest way to raise adequate funds. In addition, when the economy is terrible, and markets and banks are inaccessible, gold and silver are one of the resolutions to get currency. Gold and silver form a large part of your portfolio: When gold and silver prices significantly increase, they form a huge part of your portfolio, tipping off the overall balance. To rebalance your portfolio, you might want to sell. When gold and silver escalate: When gold and silver prices exceed the average high, there is a chance they will get overvalued. This is around the time you can earn a whopping profit and reinvest when the price corrects itself. The Best Season To Sell Gold and Silver Since the best time to sell gold and silver is when prices are high, it’s paramount to know the season of the year prices skyrocket. According to records, the price of these metals starts to grow and stays high during the start of fall and winter, respectively. Prathamesh Mallya, the Chief Analyst of NACCAB, said, “The best way to say this, ‘if a winter is coming, silver prices head north.” Similarly, gold prices also trend upwards around the same time. The price of gold typically starts to rise from late July to the beginning of August and continually fluctuates till December. The best time in the year to sell gold is when the price is at its highest, which is in August or September. Below is a diagram displaying the performance of gold’s price each quarter of the year. Frequently Asked Questions Should I buy gold or silver? It depends. Both silver and gold have their quirks as the most valuable assets today. But, if you’re a first-timer or looking for the most affordable option, then silver may be your best grab. However, nothing is wrong with starting with gold- as long as you buy at the right time, they’re both going to yield profit anyway. Whether you invest in gold or silver, you’re off to a profitable investment. Is now a good time to buy gold? With the recent downward slope of the economy following the Coronavirus crisis, now is a good time to buy and secure your funds. As of January, the national debt was approaching $28 trillion, and topping it off; the Federal Reserve has spent trillions of billions into bringing back the economy after the pandemic hit. The dollar’s purchasing power is also low, and experts say it might even go lower, so you should secure your funds in gold and silver if you have the chance. Is buying both gold and silver safe? It’s okay to invest in both gold and silver as long as you can keep up with the two assets accordingly. Though it might be risky to invest in both at once if you’re a first-time investor, it isn’t always a bad idea. You can learn to manage the gold and silver you have in our portfolio with the proper enthusiasm, adequate management knowledge, and the help of a financial expert. Is 2025 a good year to buy gold or silver? Yes. With inflation hovering around 3.7%, elevated debt, and ongoing international conflicts, many experts see continued upside for metals. Should I wait for a dip in price? Maybe—but don’t wait forever. Many miss out trying to time the absolute bottom. Buying during dips and averaging in is usually a safer strategy. Is silver more volatile than gold? Yes, but it can also offer higher upside. Silver is more affected by industrial demand and speculative activity. What if I already own metals? Great! Use dips to add to your position. Rebalancing into metals when the dollar weakens is often wise. Waiting for the “perfect” moment may cost you more in lost opportunity than a few dollars in price swing. Gold and silver are long-term hedges, not day trades. If you’re financially prepared and strategically focused, then the best time to buy may be now. Contact American Bullion to set up your own Gold IRA. The post Best Time To Buy Gold And Silver in 2025 first appeared on American Bullion.

Trump’s Tariffs the EU’s Fragile Unity and the Bigger Forex Picture Understanding the EU and tariffs with forecasts for the EurUsd and UsdJpy by the Savvy Trader Trump’s Tariffs and The Bigger Forex Picture President Trump’s renewed frustration with the European Union has resurfaced in the form of aggressive trade policies. The latest one is a threat to impose 50% tariffs on EU imports. To some, this move may seem like a calculated strategy. But in reality, it reflects a misunderstanding of how the EU operates and the challenges of negotiating with a fragmented bloc. The Complexity of the EU: 27 Voices, One Bureaucracy Unlike a centralized nation-state, the EU is composed of 27 member states, each with its own interests, trade dependencies, and political agendas. This makes collective bargaining difficult, particularly when it comes to trade negotiations with a powerful counterpart like the U.S. In this scenario, Trump’s frustration is understandable but perhaps misguided. Rather than facing a single negotiating partner, the U.S. confronts a bloc with different trade relationships with America: The Netherlands imports more from the U.S. than any other EU country. Germany, on the other hand, is the largest EU exporter to the U.S. Other players like France, Ireland, and Slovakia have varying levels of engagement with American trade. The rest? They contribute relatively little to the transatlantic economic exchange. Could Trump’s Strategy Backfire? Trump, a self-styled dealmaker who often frames negotiation like a poker game, typically prefers one-on-one power dynamics by bluffing his way to leverage. But attempting to negotiate directly with individual EU countries would be not only be futile under EU law but also dangerously destabilizing. If such backchannel negotiations were to occur, they could trigger internal discord within the EU, potentially threatening its very fabric. Would that lead to the breakup of the European Union? It’s an extreme scenario but not an impossible one. A Breakup of the EU? Historical Lessons and Modern Risks When I spoke at Harvard in 1999, I made a long-term prediction: the EU would eventually disintegrate. At the time, I believed it might take centuries. Today, I’m not so sure. The EU has faced multiple existential tests: The Greek debt crisis Political instability in Italy The shock of Brexit Ongoing challenges with integrating Eastern Europe after the fall of the Berlin Wall Each time, the EU has managed to “put a finger in the dike”, containing the crisis just barely. So, can the EU withstand this latest geopolitical salvo? I still believe a breakup is a remote possibility in the near term. But the structure of the Union where power lies heavily in the hands of the original six members could eventually become its pressure breaking point. Market Implications: EurUsd and the UsdJpy Trade In the short-to-medium term (the next 12–18 months), I believe the “Sell USD” trade continues to be viable, particularly against the yen. My long-term thesis remains intact: A move down in UsdJpy toward 128–132 Followed by a potential surge above 200 Such a move could be triggered by a collapse in EurUsd, stemming from EU instability. Before any such dramatic breakdown occurs, however, we may first see: A test of 1.1746 in EurUsd (historically significant as the ECU-to-euro conversion rate) Then rallies toward 1.21–1.22, and possibly 1.26–1.27 Only after these levels are breached should traders start considering a doomsday scenario for the euro. EurUsd Monthly Chart (added by Global-View) UsdJpy Monthly Chart (added by Global-View) Trump’s tariff war with the EU may seem like a replay of previous tactics, but it taps into deeper structural vulnerabilities within Europe. While a breakup of the EU is unlikely in the short term, mounting pressure—political, economic, and strategic—could eventually lead to seismic shifts. The Savvy Trader is a long time and highly valued ,emeber of the global-view.com community Why You Should Treat Forex Trading as Being in Episodes Not Trends Take a FREE Trial of The Amazing Trader – Click HERE

Between its trade war and the "big, beautiful budget", which is both regressive and adds on more debt, the US has roiled the capital markets. Before the weekend, the US said the EU was not negotiating in good faith. President Trump threatened a 50% tariff as of June 1. This looks harsher than the current state of play with China. Europe's Stoxx 600 was sold, and it suffered its biggest loss since April. He also called for a 25% tariff on Apple and Samsung smartphones. Benchmark 10-year yields fell 5-8 bp. The euro itself dropped about two-thirds of a cent but recovered to settled around 0.7% higher on the day and posted its first weekly gain since the week ending April 18. Among the currencies we track closely, the British pound, Canadian dollar, Mexican peso, and Chinese yuan made new highs for the year ahead of the weekend. Meanwhile, the world's two largest bond markets remain under pressure. Japan's 30-year bond yield rose for the fourth consecutive week, gaining about 35 bp to 3.05%. The 40-year bond yield rose for the seventh consecutive week. Its yield is up almost 100 bp to 3.55%. April's CPI was reported ahead of the weekend at 3.6%. The US 10-year and 30-year yields rose for fourth consecutive week. The former yield is up nearly 25 bp to about 4.50%, while the yield of the latter has risen around 35 bp to a little above 5.0%. What is often missed in the discussions is that the rise in long-term rates can be fully accounted for by the reassessment of the overnight rate. The implied overnight rate in the Fed funds futures for the end of the year has risen by about 40 bp over the past four weeks. US Drivers: The market has pushed out the next Fed cut until Q4, but this did not translate into a firmer dollar. We continue to hypothesize that given the extent of the uncertainty, or what has been spun as "strategic ambiguity," means that many market participants demand a higher US interest rate premium to hold on to dollars. Data: The US has a busy economic calendar in the last week of May. We are well aware of the emphasis that Fed officials are placing on real sector data, which it suggests has yet to see the weakness that has been picked up in the survey data. This would seem to dampen the market's reaction to survey data, and there are several such data points in the coming days, including the Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence, the final University of Michigan May survey, and the Dallas and Richmond Fed surveys. Real sector data include April durable goods orders and April personal income and consumption data. Of note, Boeing orders fell dramatically in April to eight from 196, which will weigh on the headline figure. Personal income and consumption data will factor into Q2 GDP projections, while the thunder for the deflators has been stolen by the CPI and PPI. The core PCE deflator looks flat at 2.6% year-over-year. Prices: The Dollar Index made a marginal new low for the month ahead of the weekend slightly below 99.00. President Trump's social media message that he was going to "recommend" a 50% tariff on imports from the EU as of June 1 helped it stabilize. The squeeze higher stalled near 99.60 and set session lows late in the North American session. It lost nearly 2% last week to end a four-week advance with prejudice. The momentum indicators have turned down and the five-day moving average crossed below the 20-day moving average. The uptrend line off last month's lows was violated in the middle of last week. A break of the 98.85 area warns of a retest on the three-year low set in April slightly below 98.00. EMU Drivers: Europe seems to be one of the chief beneficiaries of the diversification out of dollar assets. Speculators in the futures market have their largest net long euro position (~75k contacts, 125k euros per) since last September when the 2024 high was set around 100k contracts. Good euro buying emerged on the pullback that approached the (61.8%) retracement of the gains since late March found near $1.1050. Data: The eurozone sees confidence surveys at the start of the week and the ECB's inflation survey. Germany and Spain report April retail sales, and France reports consumer spending. But the highlight of the week is that the four largest members of the EMU report April CPI figures ahead of the aggregate estimate on June 3. Barring a significant surprise, the market will continue to look for another ECB rate cut at the June 5 meeting. Prices: The euro posted its first weekly increase since the weekend ending April 18. The upticks stalled ahead of the weekend near $1.1380, which is the (61.8%) retracement of the losses from the April 21 high (~$1.1575) to the May 12 low (~$1.1065). US President Trump's 50% tariff threat knocked the euro back to around $1.1300 were buyers emerged. The euro's gains came despite the widening US two-year premium over Germany, which often tracks the exchange rate. It reached 220 bp at the end of last week, the highest since mid-February. The momentum indicators are constructive, and the five-day moving average crossed back above the 20-day moving average. A move above the $1.1380 area targets $1.1575 and maybe $1.1685. PRC Drivers: The yuan is a closely managed currency. Officials have let the yuan appreciate to new highs for the year against the dollar. Still, the yuan's appreciation is among the least in Asia. The onshore yuan has risen by about 1.7% against the dollar this year, while the offshore yuan has appreciated by around 2.3%. The PBOC has eased monetary policy but without more fiscal support, the 5% growth target may be difficult to achieve. Data: China reports industrial profits on May 27. Despite being a huge manufacturing center, profits tend to be weak in China. Chinese companies, with access to patient capital, are more concerned with securing market share than profits. In contrast, American businesses that rely on impatient capital (bonds and stocks over bank loans) typically pursue short-term profits. China reports its May PMI early on May 30 (Saturday). Prices: The broad weakness in the US dollar saw it pressed to new six-month lows before the weekend to almost CNH7.1700. There is little to hang one's hat on from a technical perspective until the CNH7.1460-CNH7.1500 area. The dollar fell for the fifth consecutive week against the onshore yuan and approached CNY7.18 at the end of the last week. A break of this area would suggest technical potential toward CNY7.1380-CNY7.1400. Japan Drivers: While the exchange rate's sensitivity (30-day correlation) with the US 10-year yield remains at the lower end of where it has been in the last couple of years (~0.25), its correlation with the changes in the US two-year yield is near 0.50, which is the upper end of the three-year range. On occasion, it has reached 0.80. Still, even more impressive is that the changes in the exchange rate and changes in the Dollar Index have a little more than a 0.90 correlation over the past 30 days, which appears to be the highest since the mid-1990s. Data: After reporting a small contraction in Q1 GDP, attention shifts to Q2 GDP and the April employment, retail sales and industrial production will help shape expectations. More important for expectations for the Bank of Japan and Japanese interest rates may be Tokyo's May CPI. Recall that elevated April figures, which saw the headline CPI rise to 3.5% from 2.9% and the core jumped to 3.4% from 2.4%. There were several factors that will not be repeated, including the low base effect from the waiver of school tuition, the start of the new fiscal year, and an unexpected increase in rents. Prices: In the last nine sessions, the dollar has risen twice; once by about 0.02% and once by a little less than 0.25%. It has fallen by about 4% over those nine sessions to nearly JPY142.40. It approached the month's low (~JPY142.35) was recorded on May 6. Still, last week, the dollar snapped a four-week advance. The momentum indicators have turned lower, and the five-day moving average is below the 20-day moving average. Nearby support is seen around JPY142.00, but the risk may extend to the JPY140 area, which was tested in April, September 2024, and December 2023, without settling below it. UK Drivers: UK officials are in a bind. The stronger than expected Q1 growth (0.7%) and the jump in April CPI would seem to allow the Bank of England some latitude in the next rate cut. Yet, both are overstated, and both growth and prices are expected to moderate going forward. This will compound the fiscal challenge Chancellor Reeves will likely face in the Fall. At the same time, Prime Minister Starmer's support is at a new low according to the recent YouGov poll, and he spent precious capital to outflank Farge's Reform Party on immigration, to the dismay of many in his Labour Party. Starmer secured a limited trade arrangement with the US, which surrendered some sovereignty to the US in exchange for a carve out of 100k vehicle exports. Its attempt to re-set its relationship with the EU by focusing on defense and security issues falls victim to the cherry-picking criticism often levied against it. The US threat of a 50% tariff on the EU gives the UK a competitive advantage, but a weak EU is not in the UK's interest. Sterling settled little changed against the euro despite the volatility around the President Trump's social media posting of the potential tariff on the EU. Data: The UK's data in the coming days features the CBI surveys and Nationwide house price index. These tend not to be market-movers. Meanwhile, the swaps market has lifted the year-end base rate projection to about 3.80% (4.25% currently), which is the highest since early April. Prices: Firm core and services inflation, followed by stronger than expected UK retail sales lifted sterling to almost $1.35, i40ts best level since February 2022. That said, its 1.9% gain against the dollar last week put it in the middle of the G10 performers. A note of caution is that sterling settled above its upper Bollinger Band ($1.3485). But the momentum indicators are moving higher, and the five-day moving average is about 20-day. The next chart resistance is not until the $1.3630-50 area. As UK rates have risen against Germany, sterling has recouped previous ground lost against the euro. The euro has fallen around 4% against sterling since reaching an 18-month high on April 11 near GBP0.8740. It is finding support near the 200-day moving average (~GBP0.8385). Canada Drivers: The Canadian dollar appears more sensitive to the broad direction of the greenback than risk, or oil. It has not been sensitive to changes in US or Canadian short-term interest rates. The rolling 30-day correlation of changes of the Canadian dollar and the Dollar Index is around 0.72, the highest for the year. Changes in Canadian dollar is most often inversely correlated with the S&P 500 (a proxy for risk). However, over the past 30 sessions, there is a positive correlation (~0.25). It happened late last year for the first time since November 2021. Data: Canada reports March and Q1 GDP at the end of the week. It is difficult to go from the monthly GDP figures to the quarterly. In Q4 24, the monthly GDP prints were a cumulative 0.4%, but the quarterly GDP was 2.6% at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. In January, the economy expanded by 0.4% and contracted by 0.2% in February. The median forecast in Bloomberg's survey for Q1 25 GDP is 1.8%. The importance of the data may lie with the central bank's response. Following the elevated underlying core inflation readings, the swaps market downgraded the chance of a rate cut at the next central meeting (June 4) to about 25% from slightly less than 60% at the end of April. Still, the year-end target rate is seen near 2.40%, up from around 2.20% at the end of last month. Prices: The US threat of a 50% tariff on the EU saw the Canadian dollar bought on the news. The greenback was trading near CAD1.3830 and was sold to CAD1.3750 by the time Europe closed shop for the week. It took another leg down in the NY afternoon, falling to about CAD1.3710, a new seventh month low. A break of CAD1.3700 area could target the CAD1.3600 area but we suspect there is potential back to last September's low near CAD1.3420. The momentum indicators have are moving lower and ahead of the weekend, the five-day moving average fell below the 20-day moving average. That said, the greenback settled below its lower Bollinger Band against the Canadian dollar (~CAD1.3735). Australia Drivers: The Reserve Bank of Australia cut its cash target rate by 25 bp last week, as widely expected. The next cut is fully discounted for August (not the July meeting, for which the futures market is pricing in a 2/3 chance). The exchange rate may be more influenced by the performance the greenback's general direction, and especially against the Canadian dollar, than the macro data. Over the past 60-sessions, changes in the Aussie are as correlated with the S&P 500 as China's CSI 300 (~0.50). Data: It is unreasonable to expect the RBA to cut rates at back-to-back meetings, which means this week’s data may not be so consequential. Moreover, officials put more weight on the quarterly CPI figures than the monthly estimate, and April's will be released this week. The central bank has been concerned about the strength of domestic demand. Australian consumers slowed their shopping in Q1 25. Retail sales rose at an annualized pace of 3.6%, down from 4.8% in Q1 24. On the other hand, private credit growth rate hardly changed in Q1 25 from Q1 24, remaining near a 5.8% annualized pace. The April reports are due in the coming day. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets early on May 28 and is expected to cut its cash target rate by a quarter-point to 3.25%. It began cutting rates last August from 5.50%. The terminal rate is expected to be between 2.75% and 3.0%. Prices: The Australian dollar recovered from weakness early last week that frayed the $0.6400 area. It recovered to knock on $0.6500. It settled strongly near session highs and above the down trendline (~$0.6485), drawn the two highs this month above $0.6500. The momentum indicators and moving averages are constructive. A move above the $0.6515 high from May 7 targets $0.6550 next. Mexico Drivers: Over the past 60 days, the main considerations for the peso seem to be the general risk appetite and oil prices. The correlation of changes of the peso and the S&P 500 reached a two-year high near 0.60 earlier this month and is now a little above 0.50. The correlation of changes of the peso and WTI is also near 0.50, which is around the most since early 2020. Data: The central bank's inflation report (Wednesday) and minutes from the recent meeting that resulted in a half-point cut and suggestion that more cuts of a similar magnitude may be delivered (Thursday) are the highlights of the week. The central bank is clearly more concerned about growth than inflation, especially given even with the overnight cash target rate at 8.5%, monetary policy remains restrictive with inflation near 4%. Although Banxico recently cuts this year's growth forecast to 0.6% (from 1.1%), it may still be optimistic. The IMF's forecast, by contrast, is for a contraction of 0.3%. Prices: MSCI's emerging market currency index rose for its sixth consecutive week. During this run, it rose by around 3.6%. JP Morgan's emerging market currency index rose for seven consecutive weeks, during which time it has risen by about 3.6% as well. In the past seven weeks, the dollar has fallen by about 5.8% against the Mexican peso. The greenback reached a new seven-month low against the peso near MXN19.2350 ahead of the weekend. Dollar-funded carry trades are popular with LATAM currencies (leaving aside the Argentine peso), while in East Asia, boosting short-dollar hedge ratios seem to be the driver, especially in Taiwan and South Korea. Note that South Korea's central bank meeting concludes on May 29, and it is likely to result in a quarter-point cut of the base rate to 2.50%. It has cut rates three times in the cycle that began last October. April CPI (headline and core) was slightly above 2.0%. The terminal policy rate is seen between 2.25% and 2.50%. Disclaimer

Newsquawk Highlights include Nvidia earnings, FOMC Minutes, US PCE, RBNZ, Australia CPI and OPEC JMMC Newsquawk Week Ahead: 26th-30th May 2025 MON: US Holiday (Memorial Day), UK Holiday (Bank Holiday) TUE: NBH Policy Announcement; German GfK (Jun), French Prelim. CPI (May), EZ Consumer Confidence (May), US Durable Goods (Apr), Dallas Fed (May) WED: RBNZ Policy Announcement, FOMC Minutes (May), Riksbank Financial Stability Report, OPEC JMMC; Australian CPI (Apr), German Unemployment (May), US MBA (w/e 19th May), Richmond Fed (May), Nvidia (NVDA) earnings THU: Swiss & Scandinavian Holiday (Ascension Day), BoK & SARB Policy Announcements; US GDP 2nd (Q1), PCE (Q1), Initial Jobless Claims (w/e 24th May), Pending Home Sales (Apr) FRI: CBRT Financial Stability Report; Japanese Tokyo CPI (May), German Import Prices (Apr), CPI Prelim. (May), EZ M3 (Apr), US PCE (Apr), Personal Income/Consumption (Apr), Chicago PMI (May), Canadian GDP (Q1) NVIDIA EARNINGS PREVIEW (WED): Nvidia reports quarterly earnings on Wednesday, 28th May, at 21:20BST/16:20EDT, and while obvious attention will be on the quarterly figures and guidance, participants will be cognizant of what is said about China-US relations and chip bans. In recent remarks, and since China/ US agreed to lower tariffs on each other, CEO Huang warned of “tremendous loss” as export controls limit US access to China’s market. In separate comments, Huang said the US tightening of chip export controls has a significant impact on Cos. business, and it will resolutely provide services to the Chinese market. Numerically, Huang expects USD 5.5bln in charges in Q1 FY26 related to H20 products as the US informed the co. it requires a licence to export to China. Ahead of the metrics, KeyBanc expects the tech-behemoth to report a more modest upside to Q1 results and Q2 (July) guidance due to the headwinds associated with the AI China chip ban and continued supply constraints associated with GB200 NVL72. However, KeyBanc does believe that Nvidia plans to ramp up another China-compliant GPU that does not use HBM, which should partially offset the impact of this ban. NVDA is still targeting 30k GB200 racks for the year, but KeyBanc is increasingly worried about the ability to achieve this. As a result, KeyBanc is fine-tuning its near-term estimates, which previously had already reflected the impact of the AI China ban and is trimming its H2 ʼ26 estimates to reflect continued supply constraints related to GB200 production. Looking at the expectations, Q1 EPS is expected at USD 0.92 with revenue printing at USD 43.09bln. Looking at the breakdown, Data Centre is seen at USD 39.07bln, Gaming 2.82bln, Automotive 595mln, Professional Visualization 505mln, and OEM and other 120mln. Regarding some other key metrics, the gross profit margin is expected at 71% and operating expense at 3.6bln. In terms of forward guidance, the next quarter’s (Q2) revenue is seen at USD 46.59bln, with EPS of USD 1.01. RBNZ ANNOUNCEMENT (WED): RBNZ is expected to lower rates for the sixth consecutive meeting next week with money markets pricing in a 91% probability that the central bank will cut the OCR by 25bps to 3.25% and with just a 9% chance for rates to be kept unchanged at the current level. As a reminder, the RBNZ lowered the OCR by 25bps to 3.50% at the last meeting in April, as unanimously forecast and which the central bank had pre-signalled, while it noted at that meeting that a further reduction in the OCR is appropriate and as the extent of tariffs becomes clearer, the Committee has scope to lower the OCR further. RBNZ also stated that global trade barriers weakened the outlook for global growth and that having CPI close to the middle of the target band puts the committee in the best position to respond to developments. Furthermore, the minutes from the meeting stated that future policy decisions will be determined by the outlook for inflationary pressure over the medium term. It stated that the monetary policy response to tariffs will focus on the medium-term implications for inflation but added that the implications of increased tariffs for global and domestic inflation are more ambiguous. The rhetoric from officials since then has continued to highlight trade and tariffrelated uncertainty as RBNZ Governor Hawkesby noted that the threat of a trade war has decreased recently but there is still considerable uncertainty about how things will play out and that supply-side impacts from tariffs could impact New Zealand significantly. RBNZ Chief Economist Conway also commented that higher tariffs and uncertainty about global trade policy mean economic activity globally and in New Zealand will most likely be weaker than expected and that the balance of risks had shifted to the downside. As such, the central bank is expected to continue with its current rate-cutting cycle to support the economy amid the ongoing global trade uncertainty, while the recent key data releases since the last meeting have been mixed and therefore are unlikely to derail the central bank from its current path. FOMC MINUTES (WED): The FOMC left rates unchanged at 4.25–4.50%, as expected, with a unanimous vote. The statement noted that uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased further and added that “risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen”. The Fed repeated its March language that economic activity continues to expand at a solid pace, though net export swings have affected the data. It maintained its view that inflation remains somewhat elevated and labour market conditions are solid, with the unemployment rate stabilising at a low level. The key changes centred on increased uncertainty and the risks on both sides of the dual mandate. In his press conference, Chair Powell reiterated that the Fed is well-positioned to respond as needed and remains in a “wait-and-see” stance. On tariffs, he noted they have been larger than anticipated but have yet to show major effects in the data, though concerns remain. Powell said the Fed will adjust policy as the economy evolves, balancing dual mandate goals by assessing how far and how fast each side may drift from target. He declined to specify which side is at greater risk and stressed the Fed is in no rush but can act quickly if necessary. Note, the minutes of the meeting are an account of information that was available to them at the time of the meeting on 7th May 2025, therefore it will not incorporate the recent deescalation on trade with China. Try Newsquawk free for 7 days OPEC JMMC (WED): OPEC+ will convene its Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) on Wednesday ahead of the full ministerial meeting on June 1st, with delegates reportedly discussing the prospect of a third consecutive output hike, according to Bloomberg sources. Sources suggest a potential 411k BPD increase for July is under consideration — three times the originally scheduled monthly hike — although no final decision has yet been reached. The move would maintain Saudiʼs recent strategy of accelerating supply additions in an effort to enforce discipline on members exceeding quotas. At the last meeting, Saudi Arabia issued a firm warning to overproducing nations, threatening further output increases unless compliance improves. AUSTRALIAN CPI (WED): Markets expected the monthly CPI indicator at 2.3% Y/Y (prev. 2.4%). Westpac is forecasting a 0.3% rise in the April Monthly CPI Indicator – which will take the annual pace down to 1.9%. Australiaʼs CPI data will be closely watched following the RBAʼs expected 25bps rate cut earlier in May, which brought the Cash Rate to 3.85%. The RBA noted that while inflation is moderating, the outlook remains uncertain, with the risks to inflation now seen as more balanced. The cut was accompanied by a downgrade in global growth forecasts and trimmed domestic core inflation projections in the central bankʼs quarterly update. The Q1 CPI print showed headline inflation at 2.4% Y/Y, steady from the prior quarter, while core inflation fell into the RBAʼs 2–3% target band for the first time since 2021, at 2.9% Y/Y. However, price pressures remain in non-discretionary items like electricity, food, health, and education, which drove a 0.7% Q/Q rise in core CPI. A softer April print would validate the RBAʼs dovish tilt, supporting expectations for two more rate cuts in H2 2025, as per market pricing. Conversely, stickier inflation in key components could complicate the easing path. At the May meeting presser, Governor Bullock revealed that the board discussed cutting by 25bps or 50bps. BOK ANNOUNCEMENT (THU): The Bank of Korea will conduct a policy meeting next week to decide whether to maintain rates at the current level of 2.75% or resume its rate-cutting cycle following the surprise contraction in South Koreaʼs economy during Q1. As a reminder, the BoK kept its base rate unchanged at the last meeting in April, as expected, with the rate decision not unanimous as board member Shin Sung-Hwan dissented and saw a need to respond to the worsening economic outlook. BoK noted that uncertainties to the growth path were higher and headwinds to economic growth were seen to be bigger than previously expected, while it will determine the timing and pace of any further base rate cuts and stated the monetary easing policy stance is to continue. BoK Governor Rhee revealed that most board members saw lower interest rates in the three months ahead and that they will factor in the interest rate differential with the US for the next rate decision, as well as assess in May whether the policy rate needs to go below 2.25% by year-end. Furthermore, Rhee acknowledged that first-quarter growth is likely to be significantly lower, partly due to the recent domestic political crisis, and they couldnʼt rule out the possibility of the economy contracting in Q1 with the uncertainties to the growth path higher and headwinds to economic growth were seen to be bigger than previously expected. As such, the contraction in the economy materialised with Advanced GDP for Q1 QQ at -0.2% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.1%) and YY at -0.1% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 1.2%), which supports the case for the central bank to resume its easing cycle. TOKYO CPI (FRI): There is currently no consensus for the Tokyo CPI release, which is seen as a leading indicator to the National CPI typically released a couple of weeks later – the data will be closely watched as a leading signal for national price trends. ING expects inflationary pressures to remain broad-based, with core CPI likely rising slightly amid steady headline inflation. The data comes at a delicate time for the BoJ, which faces mounting policy complexity due to sticky inflation and weakening industrial output, the latter pressured by recent US auto tariffs. US PCE (FRI): Aprilʼs CPI and PPI data suggest core PCE inflation softened in April. Core CPI rose +0.2% M/M, below expectations for +0.3%, while core PPI unexpectedly fell 0.4% M/M. Together, they imply the core PCE deflator increased by just 0.12% M/M (prev. 0.0%), according to Pantheon Macroeconomics, bringing the annual rate down to 2.5% Y/Y from 2.6%. For the headline rate, Fed Chair Powell has predicted that April PCE was likely around 2.2% Y/Y (vs 2.3% in March), albeit this did not incorporate the latest PPI report. The deceleration in Core PCE largely reflects sharp PPI drops in portfolio management prices, which is heavily weighted in the PCE calculation. Looking ahead, core PCE inflation is still expected to peak between 3.0% and 3.5% later this year, Pantheon writes, assuming current tariffs persist. It says that while tariffs may add around 1ppts to goods prices, this is likely to be offset by easing services inflation, driven by softer rental and labour cost pressures. As the inflationary impact of tariffs appears contained and profit margins absorb some cost increases, markets expect the Fed to cut rates by 50bps this year. Fed officials have been cautious on giving any outlook updates amid the uncertainty, but the influential Governor Waller has argued again that he does not see much from tariffs to suggest that inflation will rise persistently, again noting that the Fed can look through one-time effects; this view was also echoed by others recently, including the Fed’s Vice Chair Jefferson, and Musalem, while some – Like Fed’s Bostic — suggest that inflation expectations are troubling. CANADA GDP (FRI): Canada’s March 2025 and Q1 2025 GDP will be released on Friday. The March data will likely start to show the immediate effect of tariffs on the Canadian economy, given tariffs on Canada came before Liberation Day, a 10% tariff on Energy and Potash, and a 25% tariff on Steel and Aluminium. US President Trump also implemented a 25% tariff on all non-USMCAcompliant goods, but the actual imposition was not implemented until April (outside of Q1). Nonetheless, given Canada was subject to certain tariffs in March, and the announcement was expected – an impact will likely start to be seen in the data. The data will likely help shape expectations for the June BoC meeting. Recent inflation data was hotter than expected, and money markets have started to price a 25bps rate cut in June with less certainty. Initially, the hot inflation data saw pricing ease from a 60% probability of a 25bps rate cut to a 50% probability, with now just a 30% probability of a 25bps rate cut at the next meeting. A slowdown in the economy could bolster the case for another 25bps rate cut, which would take the BoC rate below the 2.75% midpoint of the BoC’s neutral rate estimate (2.25-3.25%). The BoC paused in April and continued to provide no guidance due to the uncertainties ahead. However, Governor Macklem did note they are prepared to act decisively if incoming information points clearly in one direction. It is also worth noting that the Minutes of the meeting found that the council was split on whether to cut or hold. Those who favoured a cut, cited near-term inflation risks and signs that the economy was weakening. A sign of a further slowdown for the upcoming GDP data would likely bolster the case for a cut at the upcoming meeting, although the hot inflation may see others prefer to hold once again Copyright © 2025 Newsquawk Voice Limited. All rights reserved. Registered Office One Love Lane, London, EC2V 7JN, United Kingdom · Registered Number 12020774 · Registered in England and Wales. newsquawk.com · +44 20 3582 2778 · info@newsquawk.com Join GTA for FREE – Click HERE

Overview: The dollar is finishing the week heavily. It is off against nearly all of the world's currencies. The only exceptions are the Turkish lira and Hong Kong dollar. For the week, among the G10 currencies, only the Australian dollar has not risen at least 1%, Helped by stronger than expected retail sales, sterling set a new three-year high (~$1.3500). Between the tariffs and the budget, the Dollar Index is set to snap a four-week upside correction, even as the market has pushed the next cut by the Federal Reserve into Q4. Asia Pacific equities mostly rallied, except for China, Taiwan, and South Korea. Europe's Stoxx 600 is little changed on the day and week. US index futures have a slightly heavier bias. The S&P 500 ended a six-day rally and has a three-day downdraft in tow coming into today. Bonds enjoy a bid today, including the long-end of the Japanese curve, despite the firm April national CPI. European benchmark yields are 1-2 bp lower and the 10-year US Treasury yield is off a little more than a basis point to 4.51%. Gold is firm, though within yesterday's range. It is near $3330 after settling last week slightly above $3200. July WTI reversed lower from $64.20 in the middle of the week and, at yesterday's lows, was $4 lower. It is consolidating quietly today and is hovering near $61.00. USD: The Dollar Index was already recovering before the stronger than expected preliminary PMI, but it helped extend the gains even as yields counter-intuitively fell. It rose for the first time this week yesterday and resurfaced above 100.00. However, again Asia and Europe sold it and DXY is trading fraying support near the week's low set Wednesday a little below 99.35, which is also roughly the (61.8%) retracement of the rally from the April 21 low (~97.90). It is set to snap a four-week advance. The US reports April new home sales today, and after the heady 7.4% jump in March, the biggest gain in five months, economists expect a pullback. A 4% decline, which is what the median forecast in Bloomberg's survey anticipates would being the seasonally adjusted annual to 695k, which would be about 5.5% lower than in April 2024. It is not typically a market-mover. Nor is the KC Fed's services survey. Next week's highlight include durable goods order, for which a sharp slowing of Boeing orders will weigh on the headline though shipments jumped. The April PCE deflator will also be released. The CPI and PPI suggest there is scope of an inconsequential slight slowing, depending on the rounding. EURO: The euro peaked Wednesday near $1.1380, (61.8%) of the decline in the past month. It was turned back yesterday and fell to almost $1.1255 in North America and has recovered back to almost $1.1355 today. And the five-day moving average is crossing back above the 20-day moving average. It settled slightly below $1.1165 last week, which was the fourth consecutive weekly decline that followed a four-week advance. The move is about the dollar more broadly, but it did not hurt that Germany's Q1 GDP was revised to 0.4% from 0.2%, helped by stronger consumption and investment. The negotiated wage indicator may draw some attention ,but the significance is marginal. The 2.4% year-over-year rise in Q1 25 follows a 4.1% increase in Q4 24. The fact of the matter is that barring a significant surprise, the ECB is set to cut rates at its June 5 meeting, at which growth and inflation projections will likely be reduced. ECB President Lagarde has suggested that the neutral rate (r*) is around 1.75% and that is where the market expects the deposit rate to be by the end of the year (2.25% now). Late today, Moody's is set to announce its review of Italy's sovereign rating. It has been on negative watch at the lowest investment grade rating (Baa3, which is equivalent to BBB-). S&P assigns it a BBB+ rating with a stable outlook and Fitch says Italy is a BBB rating with a positive outlook. Next week's economic diary consists of mostly surveys and money supply/lending figures. CNY: The dollar recovered from a four-day low yesterday near CNH7.1940 and was knocking against CNH7.2050 by the end of the session. The greenback has been sold to new six-month lows today near CNH7.1745. The next important technical area may be CNH7.1460-CNH7.1500. The PBOC set the dollar's reference rate at CNY7.1919 (CNY7.1903 yesterday and CNY7.1938 a week ago). There are two broad models of competition. The Anglo-American model, for which companies depend on the capital markets, compete for profits. This is the key to securing lower cost capital from the impatient investors. What is sometime called the Rhine model, but includes Japan, as well, relies more on bank lending. The access to more patient capital encourages competition for market share. China, with its extensive state-own companies, is more the latter. April Industrial profits are due next Tuesday. In March, profits had risen 2.6% year-over-year. In March 2024,they have fallen by 3.5%. On May 31, China's PMI is scheduled for release. The risk is on the downside. JPY: The dollar broke that three-day downdraft against the yen yesterday, rising for the first time this week, despite the large decline in the US 10-year yield since last Thursday. It has been falling since peaking on May 12 near JPY146.85. Selling pressure re-emerged today ad pushed the dollar back to JPY143.15, to bring yesterday's low near JPY142.80 back into view. The US CPI and PPI steal the thunder from the Fed's inflation target, the PCE deflator. The eurozone's preliminary CPI steals the thunder from the final estimate. In Japan, Tokyo's CPI is usually a good indicator of the national figure. Tokyo's April CPI was reported on April 25 and it showed a large jump (3.5% vs 2.9% headline and 3.1% vs. 2.2% core). The national headline figure converged with Tokyo's at 3.6% (unchanged from March) and the core rate stands at 3.5% (up from 3.2%). The swaps market has about 15 bp of tightening discounted for this year, slightly less than a week ago and practically flat since the end of last month. At the end of next week, Tokyo's May CPI will be reported alongside the April industrial production and retail sales. The bigger story in Japan is the dramatic jump in long-term bond yields. This is the fourth consecutive week that the 30-year bond yield rose. It has risen by about 35 bp during the advance and has approached German levels (3.02%-3.11%). Japan's 40-year bond yield has risen for the seventh consecutive week and is up around 93 bp to almost 3.55%. The strain on Japanese banks seems minimal and the Topix index of bank shares has risen for the third consecutive week. It is up a nearly 11.5% over these three weeks. Japanese insurers may be more exposed to the ultra-long end and the five-week, nearly 17% rally, ended this week with a 3.1% pullback. GBP: After setting three-year highs on Wednesday (~$1.3470), sterling consolidated firmly and spent most of yesterday's session above $1.34. In fact, it was the strongest of the G10 currencies and settled barely higher on the day. The greenback's heavier tone and stronger than expected UK retail sales have lifted sterling today to $1.35. It may be of psychological importance by the next chart resistance is in the $1.3650 area. April UK retail sales jumped 1.2% (in volume terms) well above expectations and after March's 0.4% increase was revised to only 0.1%. That means that through the first four months of the year, UK retail sales have risen by a little more than 9.5% at an annualized rate. In the Jan-Apr 2024 period, UK retail sales rose an annualized rate of a little more than 5%. With the rise in core CPI and services, coupled with the robust retail sales, the swaps market is pricing in a less aggressive path for the Bank of England. It sees the year-end base rate near 3.82%, the upper end of what it has been since early April and about 32 bp higher than seen at the end of last month. The UK has a light economy calendar next week. CAD: The US dollar consolidated quietly yesterday between about CAD1.3850 and CAD1.3890, though edged slightly higher to snap a three-day losing streak. It has been greeted by sellers that have driven the greenback to a marginal new low for the week, a little closer to CAD1.3800. needs to got off the CAD1.38-handle to be of any importance. The low for the year was set earlier this month near CAD1.3750. Lifted by the strongest auto sales in the month of March since 2018, the Bank of Canada estimated that overall retail sales rose by 0.7%. This seems likely to have been an attempt to get ahead of the US tariffs. Excluding auto sales, retail sales may have fallen by 0.1% (after rising 0.5% in February). While the Bank of Canada may look through it, the decisive development this week was the firmer than expected core CPI measures. The market downgraded the likelihood of a cut next month (June 4) and, in fact, does not have the next cut fully discounted until September. Next week's highlight is the first estimate of Q1 GDP. The median forecast in Bloomberg's survey is for a 1.8% annualized pace (down from 2.6% in Q4 24). Here in Q2, the median forecast sees the risk of a contraction, and stagnation in Q3. AUD: The Australian dollar settled poorly yesterday, below Wednesday's low. But it remains within the broad consolidation range that has dominated since the middle of last week, roughly $0.6385-$0.6470. It is trading near the upper end of that range, having reaching nearly $0.6465 in Europe today. Last week's high was near $0.6500. Australia's economic diary is quiet until the middle of next week's monthly inflation report. The Reserve Bank of Australia's delivered 25 bp cut this week and revealed that it had considered a half-point move. The odds of a cut at its next meeting in July jumped from a little less than 25% to around 60%. The overnight cash target rate is at 3.85% and the swaps market sees it near 3.15% at the end of the year, or slightly more than 15 bp lower than a week ago. MXN: The dollar peaked yesterday near MXN19.46 after the firmer than expected CPI for the first half of May. The headline rate shot to 4.20% (from 3.90%), and through the upper end of the target range for the first time this year. The core rate held barely below the 4% cap. Even as the greenback recovered against the euro and yen yesterday, it fell back below MXN19.30, making the lows late in the session. It has been sold to almost MXN19.2550 so far today. The low from earlier this week was closer to MXN19.25. The dollar carry-trade is in vogue and we still see potential toward MXN19.00-MXN19.10. We suspect, and look for confirmation, in next week's central bank report, in which it may revise its growth forecast again. Remember it recently cut in half to 0.6%. But, this still may be optimistic. The IMF, for example, projects a 0.3% contraction. The peso's resilience was again demonstrated. Mexico's trade surplus will be reported shortly. It tends to narrow sequentially in April and it is expected to have done so last month. Mexico's March surplus, which was almost three-quarters larger than the March 2024 surplus was likely flattered by attempts to get ahead of US tariffs. Disclaimer

Overview: Disappointing flash May PMI readings in Europe and the Asia Pacific helped the US dollar stabilize after yesterday's drop. Asian currencies, including the yen, has been unsettled by reports that in bilateral trade discussions with the US, exchange rates have been discussed. This, coupled with extensive unhedged dollar exposure rocked several of the regional currencies in recent weeks. Yesterday's 1.6% surge of the South Korean won has been mostly though not fully unwound today. The dollar has edged lower against the Taiwan dollar for the third consecutive session today, and the sixth time in the past seven sessions. The greenback is higher against the all the G10 currencies today but the Japanese yen, which has also been impacted by fx-related talks. Following the sharp US equity losses yesterday, Asia Pacific bourses tumbled today. Indonesia was the notable exception, and the rupiah, incidentally, is the strongest currency in the world so far today, rising by about 0.4% against the US dollar. Europe's Stoxx 600 is off nearly 1%. It would be the first back-to-back loss in the index in two weeks. US index futures are slightly firmer. Japanese bonds remain under pressure, and European benchmark yields are mostly have edged higher. After yesterday's surge, US two- to 10-year yields are 1-2 bp lower. Gold reached a nine-day high near $3345 before falling back to new session lows a little below $3305. July WTI spiked to nearly $64.20 yesterday amid report that Israel was considering a strike on Iran but reversed slow and settled near $61.35. Confirmation that OPEC+ was still planning on continuing to boost output may have encouraged follow-through selling today to around $60.40, where the 20-day moving average is found. USD: The Dollar Index was sold through 99.50 yesterday, which is the (6.18%) retracement of the bounce from the three-year low set April 21 (~97.90). The bounce itself stalled near 102.00, a little ahead of the (6.18%) retracement of the losses from the late March high (~104.70). It is consolidating quietly but firmly between about 99.45 and almost 99.85 so far today. Resistance is seen in the 100.00 area. Still, the five-day moving average will fall back below the 20-day moving average today or tomorrow, and the momentum indicators have begun curling lower. Meanwhile, the fear of financial stress and the cracks beginning to appear in the labor market may become more salient. The US labor market is gradually slowing. The three-month average non-farm payroll increase was below the six-month average for the third month in a row in April. Job growth in the first four months of the year is almost 20% less than the same year ago period. Today's weekly jobless claims may draw some attention. The four-week moving average of weekly initial jobless claims is at its highest level since last October and the four-week average of continuing claims is at the highest for the year. The cooling of immigration, the government lay-offs, and the weak tourist bookings underscore the risk of continued slowing. Given Fed Chair Powell's contrast of weak survey data and more resilient real sector data, the preliminary May PMI is unlikely to have much impact. April existing home sales are expected to bounce back after falling nearly 6% in March. EURO: After stalling near the 20-day moving average on Monday and Tuesday, the euro pushed through it (~$1.1280) yesterday and traded above $1.1360. The $1.1380 area is the (61.8%) retracement of the decline from decline from the $1.1575 area seen late April, which was the best level since November 2021. The momentum indicators are turning higher, and the five-day moving average is poised to shortly cross back above the 20-day moving average. But the euro is trading heavier today and new session lows have been recorded in late European morning turnover near $1.1290. Support is seen in the $1.1265-80 area. The preliminary May PMI disappointed. It showed the eurozone manufacturing continues to contract (49.4 vs. 49.0). It is the fifth consecutive month of improvement, but it has not been above the 50 boom/bust level since June 2022. More disappointing was the service sector. The preliminary PMI fell back below 50 (to 48.9) for the first time since last November. It was the fourth decline in the five months of the year and the largest of the year. The high for the year was set in January (51.3). The composite PMI was also dragged below 50 (to 49.5). It was at 52.2 in May 2024. In Germany, both the manufacturing and services PMI remained below 50 (48.8 and 47.2, respectively) and the composite (output) fell below 50 (48.6), the lowest of the year. Separately, Germany's May IFO survey saw a continued improvement in expectations (highest since last May), but the current assessment weakened for the first time in three months. France's manufacturing and services PMI also remained below 50 even though both edged up. The preliminary composite reading rose to 48.0 from 47.8. That matches this year's high. The market continues to be confident that the ECB will cut rates again when it meets early next month. CNY: After reaching a six-day high near CNH7.2265 on Tuesday, the dollar's broad weakness pulled it back to slightly below CNH7.20 yesterday. Follow-through selling initially took it to CNH7.1940, a six-day low. It recovered to new session highs near CNH7.2080 in the European morning as the greenback found better traction more broadly. The PBOC set the dollar's reference rate at CNY7.1903. That was 0.05% lower than yesterday's (CNY7.1937), which is the largest change in over a week, and the lowest dollar fix since April 3. The lower reference rate limits the dollar's upside/yuan's downside. JPY: The dollar fell against the for the third consecutive session yesterday and the sixth time in the past seven sessions. It extended its losses initially today to around JPY142.80, a new two-week low. The early denial that US Treasury Secretary Bessent and Japan's Finance Minister Kato did not discuss exchange rate levels, while acknowledging current levels reflected fundamentals, lifted the dollar to session highs near JPY144.40 but the gains were unwound and the greenback was sold to JPY142.80 in early European turnover. It recovered quickly but appears to be stalling around JPY143.50. The momentum indicators have turned down and the five-day moving average is crossing below the 20-day moving average today. The markets tend not react much to Japan's PMI, but for the record the preliminary manufacturing PMI edged up to 49.0 from 48.7. It has not been above 50 since May-June 2024. The services PMI weakened to 50.8 from 52.4. It was at 50.9 at the end of last year. The composite stands at 49.8 (51.2 in April). The sharp sell-off in long-term JGB yields is causing some consternation but not on Japanese bank shares. The Topix index of bank shares collapsed by 37% from late March through early April, but it has rallied strongly and has overshot the (61.8%) retracement target. It is up almost 40% from the lows. Insurance companies are thought to be more exposed to very long end of the Japanese curve. The index of Topix insurance companies crashed by more than a quarter in late March-early April swoon. It too recovered smartly but has begun falling again. It was off today for the fourth consecutive session and has lost more than 4% this week. The 40-year bond yield has risen by about 90 bp in the six-week advance coming into this week and it is up another 22 bp this week. The 30-year yield was up about 65 bp over the past six weeks and is up about 22 bp so far this week. GBP: Sterling reached a new three-year high yesterday near $1.3470. The five-day moving average crossed above the 20-day moving average on Tuesday, and the momentum indicators have turned higher, but had not reached over-sold territory. A consolidative tone has emerged today. A break of the $1.3370 indicates a near-term corrective phase. The UK's preliminary May manufacturing PMI ticked down to 45.1 from 45.4. It has not been above 50 since last September. The services PMI had slipped below 50 in April (49.0) for the first time since October 2023 but returned to 50.2 in the preliminary May reading. However, the composite remained below 50 (49.4 vs. 48.5) for the first back-to-back sub-50 reading late 2023. The composite was at 53.0 in May 2024. CAD: The US dollar fell for the third consecutive session against the Canadian dollar, its longest losing streak in a little more than a month. The greenback fell to about CAD1.3815, matching the May 8 low. It is held above CAD1.3845 earlier today and is testing the 20-day moving average in Europe near CAD!.3885. Yesterday's high was near CAD1.3920 and a move above it helps lifted the technical tone. Still, the daily momentum indicators are set to turn lower. AUD: The Australian dollar fully recovered from the losses suffered at the hands of the dovish central bank. It reached a five-day high yesterday near $0.6470. A trendline off those two highs is near $0.6485 today. It is trading with a softer bias today but within yesterday's range (~$0.6415-$0.6470). It found support at the end of last week and earlier this week slightly below $0.6400, though last week's low was near $0.6355. The momentum indicators are not inspiring but broadly consistent with the consolidation that has dominated this month. Australia's manufacturing PMI rose every month in Q1 25 before slipping in April to 51.7 wand was unchanged in the flash May reading. The services PMI has been eased to 50.5 in May from 51.0 in April. It has not been below 50 since January 2024. The composite PMI ticked down to 50.6 from 51.0 in April. It finished last year at 50.2 and was 52.1 last May. MXN: The dollar rose against the Mexican peso for only the fourth time this month. We suspect the sharp losses in the US equity market took a toll on the peso. Over the past 30 sessions, changes in the peso are about 0.60 correlated with the S&P 500 and are greater than the G10 currencies. It rivals the Brazilian real, which posted a small gain against the dollar yesterday. The peso's roughly 0.5% loss was the most among emerging market currencies. Mexico updates its Q1 GDP estimate (initially 0.2% quarter-over-quarter) today and the March IGAE economic activity report is due, which is similar to a monthly GDP estimate. They will be overshadowed by the CPI for the first half of May CPI. The year-over-year headline rate may rise above 4% (the upper end of the target range) for the first time this year. The core rate may hold a whisker below the threshold. Given the economic weakness, the firmer CPI is unlikely to impact expectations that Banxico will likely cut the overnight rate by another 50 bp when it meets next on June 26. Disclaimer

Why a Ukraine-Russia Ceasefire Could Trigger a Short-Term EURUSD Rally and What Could Limit It So How a Ukraine-Russia Ceasefire Could Impact EURUSD Exchange Rate With President Trump pushing for Ukraine and Russia to meet and discuss peace, global attention is turning toward the possibility of a ceasefire. While a comprehensive peace agreement remains uncertain, even preliminary talks would mark a significant shift in tone. Let’s assume the two sides finally sit down at the negotiating table and discuss a pause as a first step. What would a ceasefire mean for the EURUSD? A Brief History of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict To understand market reactions, it’s essential to revisit the roots of the war: February 2014: Russia annexes Crimea following Ukraine’s Revolution of Dignity. Russian support follows for separatists in Ukraine’s Donbas region. February 24, 2022: Full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine begins, Europe’s largest conflict since World War II. As of May 2025: Conflict continues, with Russia controlling approximately 20% of Ukrainian territory. How a Ceasefire Could Move the EURUSD Assuming a headline announces a Ukraine-Russia ceasefire, the EUR/USD would likely rally, at least in the short term and here’s whyL Why the EURUSD Could Rally Easing of Geopolitical Risk in Europe A ceasefire would signal de-escalation in a hotspot directly linked to Europe. Lower geopolitical risk typically boosts the EURO by encouraging foreign investment and reducing the risk premium on European assets. Improved Eurozone Economic Outlook Trade routes through Eastern Europe could reopen and Ukraine’s grain/agriculture exports could resume Peace could reduce energy supply concerns in Europe, easing inflation and helping Eurozone economic growth. A rebound in trade and lower energy costs would be positive for European businesses and consumers. ECB policy response is uncertain although it would remain dovish if inflation falls, even as growth improves. Shift in Safe-Haven Flows The U.S. dollar benefits during geopolitical crises although its safe haven status this has been somewhat impacted by fallout from Trump’s tariffs. A credible ceasefire would likely reverse any lingering safe haven flows and boost the EURUSD. . Trump’s recent tariff-driven trade policy has already complicated USD’s safe-haven appeal, further amplifying potential EUR gains. EURUSD DAIKY CHART (no clear signs of ceasefire optimism) Why the EURUSD Rally Might Be Short-Lived Ceasefire Credibility Skepticism will remain high due to past ceasefire failures and this should keep markets cautious. Any violations or breakdowns or the risk of such in a ceasefire could quickly reverse gains in the EURUSD. Will the U.S. Economy Stay Resilient? Much will depend on whether expectations of a weaker economy and higher inflation materialize and how the Federal Reserve responds. This will influence the value of the EURUSD in its role as the anti-dollar. U.S. data and how resilient the economy will be once the impact of tariffs kick in will help set the overall U.S. dollar tone, especially if it keeps the Fed cautious while the ECB stays dovish. Buy the Rumor, Sell the News” If markets anticipate a ceasefire due to diplomatic momentum, much of the EURUSD rally could already be priced in. A formal ceasefire might trigger profit-taking rather than a fresh rally. A Conditional Bullish Scenario A Ukraine-Russia ceasefire, particularly one brokered or facilitated by Trump, would be EURUSD bullish in the short term BUT only if seen as credible. However, the sustainability of any rally depends on follow-through peace efforts, energy market reactions, and how both the ECB and Fed respond to shifting economic conditions. Traders should watch the following: Ceasefire announcement language and verification safeguards. Any shifts in market sentiment in Eastern Europe. Energy prices and inflation data. ECB and Fed expectationsfollowing any diplomatic breakthroughs. Take a FREE Trial of The Amazing Trader – Click HERE

Overview: The greenback is under pressure. It is off against nearly all of the world's currencies after falling in North America yesterday. Reports that Israel may be planning a strike against Iranian nuclear facilities has contributed to the broad risk off moods and helped lift July WTI to new highs since early April. While the greenback is not benefiting from the risk-off, gold has extended its gains to about $3300. Still, the dollar is off its lows and North American leadership is await. While equities were mostly higher in the Asia Pacific region, Europe's Stoxx 600 is snapping a four-day advance. It is off nearly 0.5%. The S&P 500 ended a six-day rally yesterday, and US index futures are off around 0.75%. Bond markets are not offering a haven today. European benchmark 10-year yields are up 6-8 bp and the 10-year US Treasury yield is up five basis points to 4.54%. Monday's high in response to the Moody's downgrade before the weekend was closer to 4.56%. The US Treasury auctions $16 bln 20-year bonds today, and the demand for this tenor is not typically as for the 10-year or 30-year. USD: It is as if Monday's buying in the North American session, following the sell-off in Asia and Europe ostensibly on Moody's downgrade, exhausted the dollar bulls. They were unable to match the strength yesterday and returned toward the session lows near 100.00 in late dealings. It was sold to almost 99.40 today, a two-week low in early European trading. It recovered to around 99.80 where sellers pounced. Support is seen in the 99.00-25 area. It must close above 100.00 to stabilize. EURO: The euro held support near $1.1220 in the North American session yesterday and by late trading it had recovered to set a marginal new session high near $1.1285, which is around the 20-day moving average, as well. It reached nearly $1.1355. It pulled back in early European turnover and found support near $1.1310. The next technical target may be the month's high near $1.1380, which is also the (61.8%) retracement of the decline from the April 21 high for the year (~$1.1575). CNY: The dollar was turned down from the CNH7.2265 area, overshooting marginally the 200-day moving average and the (61.8%) retracement of the losses since the May 9 high (~CNH7.2528). It tested the CNH7.20 area, which held initially. A consolidative tone is threatened. The PBOC set the dollar's reference rate at CNY7.1937 (CNY7.1931 yesterday). JPY: The dollar fell to a fresh eight-day low yesterday around JPY144.10 and settled below the 20-day moving average (~JPY144.60) and below Monday's low (~JPY144.65). It took out JPY144.00 before finding support slightly below JPY143.50. Nearby support is seen near JPY143.25, though more formidable support may not be found until closer to JPY142.00. There are reports suggesting that in the trade talks the US is seeking a stronger yen. Turning to Japanese trade balance, in 2023 and 2024, it reported a cumulative trade deficit of about JPY15 trillion. It recorded a bilateral surplus with the US of about JPY17 trillion. The April figures released earlier today showed an overall deficit of nearly JPY116 bln deficit. The median in Bloomberg's survey anticipated a JPY215 bln surplus. Export growth slowed on a year-over-year basis (2% vs. 4%), while imports fell 2.2%. Japan may be one of the countries that US Treasury Secretary Bessent warned would face April 2 "Liberation Day" tariffs if there are not negotiations in good faith. Japan was the first to begin negotiations with the US, but the talks seem to have stalled. Japan wants all the tariffs on the table, including the auto tariffs, but that is not what the US is offering. Moreover, Prime Minister Ishiba has seen his support dwindle and there is an upper house election in late July, after the 90-day postponement of the so-called reciprocal tariffs. GBP: Yesterday, the Bank of England's chief economist warned against easing policy too quickly and today the UK reported a surge in CPI. It helped lift sterling to a new three-year high near $1.3470 before being taken a little below $1.3400 where new bids were waiting. The jump in household utility bills fueled the largest rise in the UK CPI in two years. The 1.2% increase in April was larger than all of Q1 25 (~0.6%). The Bank of England may have been able to look through it, but core prices rose 3.8% year-over-year, up from 3.4% in March and 3.2% at the end of last year. Service prices are 5.4% higher from a year ago. They finished last year up 4.4% year-over-year. The swaps market has the next cut fully discounted for November and has about 36 bp of cuts this year priced in compared with 41 bp yesterday and 45 bp at the end of last week. Meanwhile, tomorrow, the May flash composite PMI is seen below the 50 boom/bust level for the second consecutive month. It was above 50 all of 2024. CAD: The greenback consolidated in the lower end of the recent trading range, which was established on May 12 (~CAD1.3895-CAD1.4015). It has been pushed to CAD1.3880 today. The 20-day moving average is near CAD1.3885, which is also the halfway point of the rally since the May 6 low (~~CAD1.3750). The next retracement (61.8%) is near CAD1.3850. The end of the carbon tax saw the headline CPI fall 0.1%, and given the base effect, the year-over-year rate fell to 1.7% (from 2.3%). This was a little firmer than the Bank of Canada projected. And perhaps more importantly, the underling core measures were more than expected (averaging 3.15% vs 2.85% in March). The market more than halved the odds of a June rate cut to about 1-in-4. Meanwhile, a 10-day rally has lifted the Toronto Stock Exchange Index to a record-high. It is the longest streak since 2021. The index is up a modest 5.3% year-to-date. AUD: The Australian dollar traded below $0.6400 yesterday in response to what was perceived to be a dovish cut by the central bank. However, the broader pullback in the US dollar helped it recover to almost $0.6425 in the NY afternoon. The gains have been extended to almost $0.6460 today. The week's high, set Monday, near $0.6465, offers initial resistance. It pulled back to around $0.6435 in early European turnover. A close below $0.6425 would disappoint the late longs. MXN: The peso extended its gains yesterday to new seven-month highs. The greenback reached almost MXN19.25. Recall, last Friday's high was near MXN19.5660. The peso finished higher yesterday, the 11th session in the 14 this month. Yesterday's resilience persisted even after news reports of more political violence (two aides of Mexico City Mayor Brugada were killed). Mexico reports March retail sales today. The dollar is consolidating in a narrow range (~MXN19.26-MXN19.3050), as it waits for North American leadership. With Q1 GDP already reported, today's report is unlikely to have much impact. That said, retail sales are expected to slip (-0.1%) for the first time since last October. Tomorrow's reports are more important, especially the CPI for the first half of May. Disclaimer