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Overview: The US dollar's July rally came to an abrupt end last Friday and continues to mostly consolidate as new developments are awaited. In particular, the nomination for Governor Kugler's successor on the Federal Reserve Board may trigger the next act in the drama, though the market now is considerably more comfortable with the idea that the Fed's easing cycle will likely resume next month. Also, Friday is the deadline for the US demand of Russia's ceasefire in Ukraine. Meanwhile, US sectoral tariffs on pharma and chips are anticipated to be announced in the coming days. The US dollar is trading narrowly mixed. The Antipodeans and Scandis lead the G10 higher, while sterling, the yen, and Swiss franc are nursing minor losses. Emerging market currencies are mostly firmer, but the South Korean won, Taiwanese dollar, and Chinese yuan are laggards. Equities are firm today. In the Asia Pacific region, mainland China shares that trade in Hong Kong, Taiwan's Taiex, and India are notable exceptions. Europe's Stoxx 600 is slightly firmer, and US index futures are trading ~0.2%-0.4% better. Benchmark 10-year yields are 1-2 bp firmer in Europe and the yield on the 10-year US Treasury is up a little more. The yield is almost 4.24% ahead of the $42 bln 10-year auction, with practically no concession built in, and $65 bln in four-month bills. Gold recovered from last week's low near $3268 to $3390 yesterday. It has stalled and is threatening to snap a four-day advance. On the other hand, September WTI is poised to snap a four-day advance amid speculation that Moscow will make some last-minute concessions to avoid or minimize US secondary tariff threat. USD: After selling off sharply at the end of last week (jobs, ISM, and firing of BLS director), the Dollar Index has not traded over last Friday's settlement (~99.15) so far this week. In fact, yesterday's low was a few ticks below last Friday's low. It is confined to a tight range so far today: ~98.65-98.85. If July counter-trend rally is over, as we think, the Dollar Index will fall through the 98.30 area and test 97.85 in the coming days. More important than the high-frequency data and Treasury coupon auctions today, the market participants anxiously await the nomination of Governor Kugler's successor. This could be the only governor slot that is open in President Trump's second term. And the weaker the candidate is perceived to be the less likely Trump will get another chance. When Powell's term as chair expires next year, he can stay on as governor until that term ends in January 2028. Treasury Secretary Bessent, who is part of a most untraditional administration, insists that tradition requires Powell to step down. There is, in fact, precedent for Powell to remain as governor: Marriner Eccles. The appointment of the new head of the BLS is also awaited. As unusual and untraditional the dismissal of BLS director is, there is also a notable precedent: Herbert Hoover forced the retirement of the head of the BLS in 1932. EURO: The euro rallied from a brief dip below $1.14 last Friday to almost $1.16. It consolidated on Monday and Tuesday, and this continues today. It recovered from yesterday's low slightly below $1.1530 to almost $1.1590 in North America. The consolidation looks constructive. Above $1.1600, the immediate hurdle is the band of resistance $1.1610-30. It corresponds to the (50%) retracement of the July pullback and the 20-day moving average. Germany's June factory orders unexpectedly fell. The 1% decline contrasts with the 1.1% gain projected by the median forecast in Bloomberg's survey. Domestic orders rose 2.2% after the sharp 7.5% decline in May. Foreign orders fell 3% after May's 3.8% increase. German's industrial production figures will be reported tomorrow. The median forecast is for a 0.5% decline after the 1.2% increase in May. Separately, EMU retail sales recovered in June, rising by 0.3% after a revised 0.3% decline in May (initially 0.7% decline). Retail sales rose a cumulative 0.7% in Q1 and 0.3% in Q2. With Q2 GDP already reported, today's data had little impact. The initial estimate showed a 0.1% expansion in Q2, and the early forecasts do not look better for Q3. CNY: The dollar matched the early June high at the end of last week near CNH7.2240 before reversing It settled below the previous session's low (~CNH7.1960) to leave a key reversal technical pattern in its wake. Follow-through selling on Monday pushed the greenback to about CNH7.1765. Yesterday, it consolidated within Monday's range yesterday. It is trading with a slightly firmer bias today, reaching CNH7.1955. There may be initial scope toward CNH7.20. If the PBOC is turning cautious about the yuan's appreciation, one would expect some signal in the setting of the daily reference rate. The PBOC set the dollar fix sharply lower on Monday (CNY7.1395, -0.14% from Friday) and yesterday's fix (CNY7.1366) was a new low since last November. Today's reference rate was set at CNY7.1409. JPY: After posting a key downside reversal against the yen before the weekend, when it settled near its JPY147.30 low, follow-through selling saw the greenback approach JPY146.60 yesterday. It overshot the (50%) retracement objective of the July bounce near JPY146.80 but recovered smartly, with only mild support from the US 10-year yield, which edged up by a little more than a basis point, and reached the session high a whisker below JPY147.85 in the North American morning and a smidgeon more today. This is also around where the 20-day moving average was found (~JPY147.90). The greenback needs to resurface above JPY148.25 to signal another notable from a technical perspective. Japanese labor earnings rose 2.5% year-over-year in June after a 1.4% increase in May (initially 1.0%). Base salaries rose by 2.1%. Last June, cash earnings rose 4.5%. However, when adjusted for inflation, real cash earnings fell by 1.3% year-over-year in June (-2.6% in May). In June 2024, real cash earnings had risen 1.1% year-over-year. Over the past several weeks, the swaps market has discounted 10-21 bp of tightening at the end of year. Now the swaps are pricing an increase of 16 bp. GBP: Sterling posted a key upside reversal before the weekend. It reached $1.3310 after hitting almost $1.3140, its lowest level, its lowest level since mid-May. Follow-through buying on Monday saw $1.3330 and it consolidated yesterday inside Monday's range. It is trading quietly in about a $1.3280-$1.3315 range so far today. The price action is still constructive, and near-term potential may extend into the $1.3365-90 area initially. Above there, a band of resistance may be encountered between $1.3430 and $1.3465. The UK's July construction PMI snapped a four-month uptrend, falling to 44.3 from 48.8. Although it finished last year at 53.3, it fell sharply in January (48.1) and February (44.6) before recovering but it has not been above the 50 boom/bust this year. The Bank of England meets tomorrow, and the market remains confident that a quarter-point cut will be delivered, and another one is discounted for Q4. CAD: The US dollar reversed lower against the Canadian dollar after the US employment data at the end of last week. The greenback had reached almost CAD1.3880, its highest level since May 22 before being sold slightly through CAD1.3765, which corresponds to the (38.2%) retracement of the US dollar gains from the July 23 low (~CAD1.3575). Follow-through selling has been minimal during the past two sessions, and during the consolidation, the US dollar was capped near CAD1.3810 yesterday. It is pinned in a narrow range near its recent lows. The next retracement target is around CAD1.3725 and the 20-day moving average is seen a little below there. Canada sees its July services and composite PMI. The composite PMI average of 50.4 in Q4 24 was the first above the 50 boom/bust level since Q2 23. It averaged 46.1 in Q1 25 and 43.8 in Q2 25. The market nor policymakers seem particularly sensitive to the time series. The Bank of Canada meets on September 17, and the swap market has almost a 33% chance of a cut discounting, rising to ~57% at the following meeting in late October. AUD: The Australian dollar recorded a low near $0.6420 before the US employment data ahead of last weekend. It was the lowest level since June 23. It recovered to almost $0.6495 and has been in a roughly $0.6445-$0.6490 range so far this week. It is fraying the upper end of the week's range, and nearby resistance is seen in the $0.6500-20 area. Australia reports June trade figures first thing tomorrow. Australia trade surplus through May is running more than a third lower year-over-year. Exports have been weak, except for the 5.9% surge in March. They have fallen by an average of 0.3% in the first five months. Australian exports averaged a 0.9% decline in the Jan-May 2024. Imports have risen by an average of 0.7% a month through May this year after averaging a 1.1% increase in the first five months last year. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets next week (August 12) and the market is confident that a quarter-point cut will be delivered. MXN: The US dollar approached MXN19.00 before the weekend and reached its best level since June 25. It settled in near the middle of the range before the weekend and posted an inside day on Monday. The US weakened yesterday and fell to a four-day low and frayed the 20-day moving average near MXN18.72. A break of MXN18.69 leaves little on the charts to deter a retest on the year's low (~MXN18.51). The July CPI is due shortly. Given the base effect, the headline year-over-year rate is expected to fall to around 3.5%, which would be a new low since the end of 2020. In July 2024, Mexico's CPI surged by 1.05%. This will drop out of the 12-month comparison and be replaced by something closer to 0.25%-0.30%. The core rate will prove stickier and is expected to stabilize after the year-over-year rate rose every month in Q2 (4.24% vs. 3.65% at the end of 2024). Mexico's central bank meets tomorrow. The swaps market appears priced for a quarter-point cut (to 7.75%), while all but one of the 23 economists surveyed by Bloomberg also expect a 25 bp cut. Disclaimer

Tom Lee, co-founder and head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors and chairman of Bitmine, used his appearance on Natalie Brunell’s Coin Stories to press a sweeping thesis for Ethereum: institutional tokenization is arriving at scale, stablecoins have become crypto’s first mass-market product, and the dominant smart-contract network is positioned to intermediate both. “Ethereum is arguably the biggest macro trade over the next 10-15 years as Wall Street runs onto the blockchain and as AI drives adoption of token economics – the largest layer 1 is ethereum,” he commented via X, framing Ethereum’s moment as analogous to Bitcoin’s institutional validation. Why Ethereum Might Be The Biggest Macro Trade Lee argued there is no contradiction between his longstanding Bitcoin optimism and his conviction on Ethereum. Bitcoin, in his telling, remains the monetary primitive and store of value. Ethereum, by contrast, is the execution layer for tokenized finance. “I don’t see this as a conflict,” he said when asked why he champions both assets. Drawing an analogy to equities, he added that investors can sensibly own scarce, category-defining names in parallel: “You know you should own both.” The crux of Lee’s Ethereum case is the convergence of Wall Street’s tokenization push with real-world adoption of stablecoins. He described stablecoins as crypto’s first ubiquitous application and the accelerant for institutional on-chain activity. “That is the ChatGPT moment for crypto,” he said. “The first killer app for crypto has emerged… which is stablecoins, and now Wall Street is running to tokenize and maybe even financialize their entire system on the blockchain. But that means they require smart contracts.” In Lee’s assessment, “the biggest and most secure blockchain with no downtime is Ethereum. And it’s legally compliant.” He further contended that “the majority of stablecoins and real-world assets that have been tokenized are taking place on Ethereum,” positioning the network as the default venue for capital-markets infrastructure to migrate on-chain. Brunell pressed on perceived weaknesses introduced since Ethereum’s transition to proof-of-stake, including increased complexity, centralization vectors, bridge and Layer-2 attack surfaces. Lee acknowledged those critiques but weighed them against what he views as the incumbent system’s brittleness. “These risks that you describe seem like smaller risks compared to the fragility of the existing financial system,” he said, pointing to legacy “trust vectors” and fraud rates in traditional rails. In other words, even with Ethereum’s trade-offs, the relative security-and-efficiency frontier still tilts in its favor for modern financial plumbing. Lee linked his timeline to the institutional learning curve. When he first wrote about Bitcoin in 2017, he said, the investment community was just beginning to recognize a credible digital-gold thesis. “I think Ethereum is having its 2017 moment now because now is the time that Wall Street will take tokenization seriously and it’s taking place on Ethereum,” he said. That adoption vector—tokenized dollars and securities settling under programmable contracts—underpins his claim that Ethereum is the preeminent macro trade ahead. Asked to choose a single asset for the next decade, Lee resisted the premise but ultimately answered in line with his current mandate. “If I had to choose… because I’m chairman of Bitmine, which is an Ethereum treasury, then I of course would choose Ethereum,” he said. He closed by reiterating that generational shifts in technology and attitudes will keep compounding crypto’s addressable market, with both Bitcoin and Ethereum benefiting. But on the specific question of where institutional financial infrastructure is most likely to land, his stance was unambiguous: “Wall Street will take tokenization seriously and it’s taking place on Ethereum.” At press time, ETH traded at $3,625.

Once again, Cardano (ADA) price charts are starting to lean bullish following a month of sideways action between $0.70 and $0.90. Still, it’s not just the technical analysis side of things looking good for the ADA price prediction. Social sentiment is increasing, search trends are rising, and several analysts are highlighting ADA’s structure as one that could lead to a broader reversal. The increase in sentiment around Cardano has been boosted by recent news of a community agreement to spend $71 million from the treasury on upgrades to the network. Historically, when the price consolidates above the monthly exponential moving average (EMA) with a flat structure and any downside liquidity has been cleared, the rate of increase can accelerate quickly. This is especially true when combined with renewed retail interest and favorable market sentiment. Currently, the immediate focus is on reclaiming the $1.50 level. If momentum continues to build, a target of $3.00, last seen in the 2021 bull cycle, looks increasingly likely. Cardano’s V-shaped recovery from the lows of $0.66 is more than just a relief bounce; it is beginning to resemble a potential shift in market structure. With the price reclaiming key levels and on-chain metrics, such as search interest, rising rapidly, momentum seems to be gaining strength on multiple fronts. If ADA can break through the $0.76 resistance and maintain the mid-range structure, the short-term price prediction for Cardano of $0.88 could be achieved sooner than expected. In the longer term, the clean consolidation above the monthly moving average and continued accumulation in the $0.70 to $0.76 range adds further support to bullish expectations. EXPLORE: Best Meme Coin ICOs to Invest in August Join The 99Bitcoins News Discord Here For The Latest Market Updates The post Cardano Is Cooking: Sleeping on ADA Price Prediction Could Be Your Biggest Mistake in 2025 appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

The New Zealand dollar continues to have a quiet week. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5923, up 0.37% on the day. The kiwi has been under pressure, falling 3.4% against the US dollar in July. New Zealand's unemployment rises, job growth declines New Zealand's employment report for Q2 was pretty much as expected, but the news wasn't good. The unemployment rate rose to 5.2% from 5.1% in Q1, below the consensus of 5.3%. This marked the highest unemployment rate since Q3 2020. Employment Change declined by 0.1%, down from a 0.1% gain in Q1 and matching the consensus. This was the third decline in four quarters. The weak figures point to growing slack in the labor market as the economy continues to struggle. Global trade tensions remain high and New Zealand's export-reliant economy has taken a hit from softer global demand. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will be paying close attention to the weak job numbers, which support a rate cut in order to provide a boost to the economy. The RBNZ maintained rates in July after lowering rates at six consecutive meetings. The conditions for a rate cut at the Aug. 20 meeting seem ripe and the markets have priced in a quarter-point reduction at around 85%. We'll get an updated look at the inflation picture on Thursday. Inflation Expectations rose to 2.3% in the second quarter, the highest in a year. This is the final tier-1 release prior to the August rate meeting. Fed expected to cut in September Three FOMC members will speak later today and investors will be hoping for some insights regarding the Federal Reserve's rate plans. The Fed hasn't lowered rates since December but is widely expected to hit the rate trigger at the September meeting. NZD/USD Technical NZDUSD 1-Day Chart, Aug. 6, 2025 NZD/USD has pushed above resistance at 0.5902 and testing 0.5922. Next, there is resistance at 0.59440.5880 and 0.5860 are providing support Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - Japan Wages Hit Four-Month High Asian stocks went up as Japanese carmakers gained hope that the country might secure lower auto tariffs in talks with the US. The MSCI Asia-Pacific index (excluding Japan) fell slightly by 0.1%, while Japan's Nikkei rose 0.6%. Australia's resource-focused stocks gained 0.8%. Meanwhile, China's blue-chip stocks and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index both edged up by 0.1%. Japan’s top trade negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, is heading to Washington to push the US to follow through on its promise to lower car tariffs from last month’s trade deal. Tariff news is making headlines again, with Trump saying a deal with China is “very close,” while India prepares for the impact of Trump’s tariff threats. Most Read: Nikkei 225 Technical: Start of new bullish impulsive up move as Japan’s wages tick higher Asian chip stocks dropped after bad news, including a Taiwanese investigation into alleged theft of trade secrets from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., whose shares fell 1.7% on Wednesday. Advanced Micro Devices Inc. also warned about uncertainty in accessing the Chinese market, and Super Micro Computer Inc. saw its shares tumble after disappointing results. Trump also hinted at higher tariffs on countries buying energy from Russia, including China, and announced plans to raise tariffs on Indian exports within 24 hours. India is scrambling to manage the economic impact of these threats, leaving officials in New Delhi uncertain about how to respond. Japan Wage Growth Hits Four-Month High Japan's nominal wages grew 2.5% in June 2024, the fastest in four months but below the expected 3.2%. However, real wages, which account for inflation, fell 1.3%, marking the sixth straight month of decline as inflation outpaced pay increases. While major companies agreed to over 5% wage hikes this spring, the full impact may not show until summer, as smaller firms implement raises more slowly. Meanwhile, a labor ministry panel proposed a 6% minimum wage hike, the biggest since 2002. European Open - Third Straight Day of Gains European stocks continued to rise on Wednesday as investors took advantage of recent market dips, ignoring new U.S. tariff threats and mixed corporate earnings. The STOXX 600 index gained 0.3% by 0713 GMT, marking its third straight day of gains after hitting a five-week low on Friday. Germany's DAX rose 0.5%, and France's CAC 40 climbed 0.4%. Commerzbank shares went up nearly 1% after reporting better-than-expected quarterly profits and improving its full-year outlook. Siemens Energy shares also rose 1.2% after saying it expects to meet the high end of its 2025 growth targets. However, European healthcare stocks fell 0.7%, dragged down by a 1.3% drop in Novo Nordisk shares. The Danish drugmaker, known for Wegovy, kept its full-year outlook unchanged after cutting its 2025 sales forecast last week, which wiped out nearly $95 billion in market value. The company now plans to reduce costs. On the FX front, the dollar index (DXY) rose 0.1% to 98.785 against a basket of currencies, still below Friday's high of 100.25 before the jobs report. It was also up 0.1% against the yen at 147.78, while the euro stayed flat at $1.1577. The British pound dipped 0.1% to $1.329. Meanwhile, the Australian and New Zealand dollars both gained 0.3%, reaching $0.64895 and $0.59181, respectively. Currency Power Balance Source: OANDA Labs Gold prices remain choppy with some losses overnight for the precious metal. However with interest rate expectations losses are likely to remain limited. For a full and comprehensive analysis on Gold, read Gold's (XAU/USD) Whipsaw Price Action a Sign that Bulls are Back at the Table. $3400/oz Up Next? Oil prices rose on Wednesday, bouncing back from a five-week low, due to worries about supply disruptions after U.S. President Trump threatened tariffs on India over its Russian oil purchases. Brent crude went up 48 cents (0.7%) to $68.12 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude increased by 43 cents (0.7%) to $65.59 a barrel. Economic Data Releases and Final Thoughts Looking at the economic calendar, it is a quiet day ahead with US earnings the biggest events of the day. Beyond that we have some Fed speakers later in the day. This may shake markets depending on the rhetoric as markets may want to hear more from policymakers following last weeks jobs data. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - DAX Index From a technical standpoint, the DAX index has seen a shift in character with a lower low being printed at the backend of last week. This week has the index on a three-day run of gains but the index does appear vulnerable as it retests the 24000 handle. A daily candle close above the swing high at 24313 will lead to a shift in momentum in favor of bulls again. Until then bears appear to have the upper hand. Keep an eye on the period-14 RSI which is approaching the 50 level. A rejection may be a sign that bearish momentum is set to continue while a break above could be a sign that momentum is shifting in favor of bulls. Immediate resistance rests at 24000 before the 24140 and 24313 handles come into focus. A move lower here needs to navigate its way below the 23471 handle before the 100-day MA at 24318 comes into focus. DAX Daily Chart, August 6. 2025 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Client Sentiment Data - DAX Index Looking at OANDA client sentiment data and market participants are short on the DAX Index with 71% of traders net-short. I prefer to take a contrarian view toward crowd sentiment and thus the fact that so many traders are short means the DAX Index could rise in the near-term. Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

A bold forecast has stirred debate in crypto circles. Based on reports, a long-time investor known as Pumpius argues that XRP could one day trade at a whopping $1 million per coin! That’s a huge jump from its current price near $2. The prediction rests on the idea that XRP will become the main bridge asset in a tokenized global economy worth up to $1 quadrillion. Tokenization Efforts Gain Ground According to Pumpius, Ripple is quietly moving real-world assets onto its blockchain. A government-backed real estate token pilot in Colombia is already under way. Reports have disclosed that Ripple has rolled out massive network upgrades. Then, there’s also a $100 million commitment to tokenizing carbon markets, and partnerships with regulated companies. XRP’s Role As Bridge Asset Based on data from Boston Consulting Group and Citi, $16 trillion in real-world assets could be tokenized by 2030. But Pumpius believes that figure could swell when you add $300 trillion in global real estate, $100 trillion in stocks, and over $100 trillion in bonds, plus currencies and commodities. In his view, that push could create a token economy worth $1 quadrillion. He sees XRP, with its three to five second settlement times and built-in decentralized exchange, as the obvious choice to move value between those tokens. A Network Built For Speed And Scale Reports have disclosed that XRP Ledger already supports an automated market maker and native multi-asset transfers. Pumpius said these features are more suited for high-volume transfers than Bitcoin’s design. He notes that with a total supply of 100 billion XRP—and much of it locked or burned—scarcity could boost prices if demand surges. Big Hurdles Ahead Despite the promise, challenges remain. Regulatory clarity is still a work in progress in many countries. Competing blockchains are chasing tokenization too. Legacy financial firms may hesitate before shifting trillions of dollars on-chain. And even if XRP becomes a dominant bridge, it would only need to handle settlement flows—likely a small slice of total tokenized value. Market Skepticism Persists Yet Pumpius insists the math holds. If XRP captures a fraction of daily flows in a $1 quadrillion token economy, a million-dollar price per coin follows. History shows radical price targets aren’t always impossible. Reports have pointed to early Internet skeptics who missed the web’s true potential. Whether XRP will hit seven figures or breach $3 is anyone’s guess. Featured image from Meta, chart from TradingView

The crypto market could be a bit depressed as of early August 6, but T crypto, the token behind Talos, is outperforming some of the best cryptos to buy, including Bitcoin and Ethereum. As of writing, T crypto is among the best cryptos to buy now, adding 13% in the past six hours alone and 42% in the last trading day. At this pace, T2 (No data) is not only reversing losses of late July, but there is a high probability that the token could soar, printing fresh all-time highs in August. Presently, there are over 1,500 T crypto holders. Most of them are also leaning bullish, looking at Gecko Terminal DEX data. T2PriceT224h7d30d1yAll time DISCOVER: Best Meme Coin ICOs to Invest in 2025 What is Talos AI Agent? Behind this surge is confidence that Talos, an AI-driven treasury protocol on Arbitrum, an Ethereum layer-2, could be the next crypto to explode, thanks to its unique value proposition. Talos is an agentic platform designed to execute automatically. It offers a treasury management system that automatically optimizes capital allocation and executes onchain transactions. One of its coolest features is the ability to update its codebase without any human intervention. Additionally, by riding on Arbitrum, all transactions happen in a low-latency environment where fees are low and secure. Accordingly, Talos can deliver while automatically learning, adapting, and evolving in real-time. The Talos ecosystem leverages AI to actively and in real time monitor market conditions, including volatility, yield curves, and all risk surfaces. This feature allows it to compute optimal capital paths so that its strategies, including liquidity provision deployed via ERC-4626 vaults, can maximize real onchain returns. At all times, the AI agent seeks to optimize treasury performance to deliver sustainable yield. DISCOVER: Top Solana Meme Coins to Buy in 2025 Why is T Crypto Rallying? Best Crypto To Buy Now? Because of what the Talos AI agent does and its focus on always growing its treasury, T crypto has been gaining traction. However, behind the explosion are supportive tailwinds. Recently, PancakeSwap, a top DEX on BNB Chain and Arbitrum, proposed a partnership with Talos. The DEX proposed a plan to optimize Talos’ liquidity, enhance the T crypto utility, and unlock access to new users. The observer thinks T crypto is similar to the YFI token that took DeFi by storm in the 2020-2021 bull market. Talos, he added, won’t be a short-term project now that the entire crypto and DeFi sector has matured. DISCOVER: 9+ Best High-Risk, High-Reward Crypto to Buy in 2025 What is Talos AI Agent? Why is T Crypto Exploding? T crypto up 42% in 24 hours Will T crypto print all-time highs Attention shifting to Talos, an agentic treasury platform PancakeSwap proposes partnership with Talos The post What is Talos AI Agent? Why is T Crypto Exploding? Best Crypto to Buy Now? appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

The market is bleeding again. During Trump’s latest speech, Bitcoin plummeted to $112,750. The price quickly bounced back to $113,000, but altcoins kept going down: ETH dropped to $3,700 and XRP is once again below $3. In all this chaos, these days might actually offer one of the best opportunities to scoop up best altcoins, with traders able to buy them at lower price points. But why is the market down? Here’s what we know. U.S. stocks fell Tuesday as weak services data and new tariff remarks from Donald Trump raised stagflation concerns. The S&P 500 dropped 0.49%, the Nasdaq fell 0.65%, and the Dow edged down 0.14%. The ISM Services Index flatlined in July, signaling potential trouble for the economy’s largest sector. Trump also said new tariffs on chips and pharmaceuticals are coming. Well, it’s not like Americans needed more expensive pharmaceuticals products. Meanwhile, PROVE, the native token of the Succinct protocol, skyrocketed over +300% following its listing on Upbit. The price surged from $0.30 to a high of $1.95, now stabilizing around $1.24 at the time of writing. (PROVEUSDT) Succinct is building a protocol on Ethereum to coordinate a distributed network of provers that generate zero-knowledge proofs (ZKPs) for any software. It operates as a two-sided marketplace, linking requesters with provers for use cases like AI agents, oracles, and cross-chain bridges. The matching happens via an off-chain auction system, with settlements done on-chain. 1 hour ago September Could Witness The Coinbase Stock Come Back of the Decade – Here’s Why By Fatima Coinbase stock (COIN) is down more than 30% since its July peak, but 99Bitcoins analysts and others aren’t ready to call it a collapse. Mizuho Financial, once openly skeptical of COIN stock, just bumped its price target from $217 to $267. The catalyst is a pickup in July trading volumes after a flat second quarter. Still, the tone remains cautious. Mizuho kept its neutral rating, citing a 45% drop in consumer spot trading and a 39% dip in transaction revenue last quarter. Read The Full Article Here 3 hours ago Are Whales Selling PUMP for a Loss? This Presale Could Be Better By Fatima On-chain data suggests some whales are giving up on PUMP, even at a loss. Wallet BfL4vh recently deposited 1.25 billion PUMP (worth $4.09 million) into Kraken, likely preparing to sell. Blockchain records show this whale spent $5 million USDC to acquire that position across five wallets during the public sale. If sold now, that would mean a loss of nearly $1 million. Despite a slight recovery from its all-time low of $0.002269, PUMP is still 12% below its launch price, now trading at $0.003398. The price is up 53% from its bottom, but early buyers remain underwater. Some whales may now prefer to “take the L” and reallocate funds to stronger opportunities. One rising contender is Snorter Bot (SNORT): a new Telegram-based trading bot built on Solana. Offering 0.85% trading fees, MEV protection, sniping tools, and copy-trading, it’s quickly positioning itself ahead of other bots like BONKBot and Banana Gun. SNORT has already raised nearly $2.8 million in its presale, signalling strong interest in a project that combines utility with meme culture. With multi-chain support on the roadmap and staking rewards of 155% APY, it offers both utility and passive income potential. Maybe whales are unloading PUMP—but they’re still actively searching for new opportunities like SNORT. Visit SNORT Here 5 hours ago South Korea Tests First Korean Won-Backed Stablecoin KRWIN By Fatima South Korea has launched its first Korean won-pegged stablecoin, KRWIN, in a pilot program led by fanC and Initech. The stablecoin is backed 1:1 with the won and is currently being tested for technical feasibility and real-world applications across sectors like payments, remittances, and tourism. While no public release date has been announced, fanC has filed trademarks, signaling a future launch. The move positions KRWIN as a potential leader in private digital won assets. Meanwhile, other major players like Upbit, Naver Pay, and Bithumb are also exploring stablecoin initiatives amid growing demand and regulatory scrutiny. 5 hours ago Did BTC USD Just Reject? Why Crypto is Down Today Explained By Fatima The BTC/USD price was heavily rejected, accumulating a couple of significant events over the past 30 days, from whale dumping $9 billion after holding for over 10 years to Coinbase shares sliding over 30%. At first glance, it looked like it got absorbed well, but now btc logoBTC ▼-0.86% failed to hold key support. Analysts now eye the previous all-time high $112k level and are hoping for the best. Volatility is brutal, and anticipation is for a short squeeze, but for now, BTC faces technical resistance. Read The Full Article Here The post [LIVE] Latest Crypto News, August 6 – Bitcoin Price Tanks Again To $113K And XRP Falls Below $3: Best Altcoins To Buy? appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

When Ethereum decided to go green, it chose a proof-of-stake system, which allowed for liquid staking. The result has been magical. Liquid staking platforms like Lido Finance and Rocket Pool now command billions in total value locked (TVL). But new moves by the SEC are spooking everything. Lido Finance is among the largest DeFi protocols, per DefiLlama. As of August 6, LDO ▼-5.62% managed over $31 billion worth of assets and is the second-largest DeFi protocol, only after the high-flying Aave, which has a TVL of over $34 billion. (Source: DefiLlama) SEC’s Guidance on Liquid Staking Liquid staking platforms are just beginning to gain traction, and more assets are expected to flow to them as platforms choose to move away from energy-intensive mining to greener and more energy-efficient systems. Aware that this industry will only grow, yesterday, on August 5, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) issued a staff statement clarifying that, in their assessment, certain liquid staking activities and associated tokens do not constitute securities offerings under the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Notably, the regulator defined liquid staking as a process of staking digital assets via a protocol in return for a “liquid staking receipt token (LST).” Some of these tokens include staked Ether (stETH) offered by Lido Finance or JITOSOL by Jito on Solana. These LSTs are proof of ownership, and all accrue staking rewards, making them among the best cryptos to buy. Lido DAO TokenPriceMarket CapLDO$803.58M24h7d30d1yAll time DISCOVER: Best Meme Coin ICOs to Invest in 2025 DeFi Tokens To Explode? According to the SEC, depending on the facts and circumstances, protocols issuing these tokens are not offering and selling securities since they don’t bear any characteristics of an investment contract under the Howey Test. Paul Atkins, the chair of the SEC, said the guidance is a “significant step forward in clarifying the staff’s view about crypto asset activities that do not fall within the SEC’s jurisdiction.” Atkins added that the agency is further committed to providing clear guidance on “the application of the federal securities laws to emerging technologies and financial activities.” Far from killing liquid staking, this guidance is seen as a massive step toward providing regulatory clarity in DeFi and for Liquid staking platforms like Rocket Pool, Jito on Solana, and many other similar protocols. The regulator now permits issuers and persons involved in the secondary market offering and selling LSTs to engage freely. They won’t have to register those transactions with the Commission. “Liquid Staking Providers involved in the process of minting, issuing and redeeming Staking Receipt Tokens, as well as persons involved in secondary market offers and sales of Staking Receipt Tokens, do not need to register those transactions with the Commission under the Securities Act.” DISCOVER: The 12+ Hottest Crypto Presales to Buy Right Now Market Reaction on Satoshi Street The guidance is a game-changer for liquid staking platforms on Ethereum and Solana, including Lido Finance and Jito. Specifically, it will reduce and even eliminate the risk of enforcement actions from the agency. This is a specter that haunted DeFi during Gary Gensler’s regime. There is also a high possibility that institutions will now be eager to take part. Their move will unlock billions and boost quality tokens, including top Solana meme coins. On X, Sei Network said this guidance will lead to better products and stronger networks. Meanwhile, Nate Geraci, an ETF commentator, said this statement is the last hurdle for the agency to approve staking in spot Ethereum ETFs eventually. Once approved, Geraci said LSTs will help manage liquidity within spot Ethereum ETFs, a previous concern for the agency. DISCOVER: Best New Cryptocurrencies to Invest in 2025 SEC Guidance on Liquid Staking Platform: Game Changer? Ethereum, Solana, and proof-of-stake tokens are reliant on liquid staking platforms SEC provides guidance on liquid staking Will this boost DeFi? Time for the regulator to approve staking for spot Ethereum ETF issuers? The post Did The SEC Just Kill Liquid Staking? Market Reaction on Satoshi Street appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

Crypto market analyst Ali Martinez is warning that XRP’s latest pullback could extend, citing a cluster of bearish signals across price, on-chain, and behavioral metrics. Why XRP Could Face A Deeper Correction In an X thread posted early Wednesday, Martinez opened with: “XRP may be headed for a deeper correction. Here’s why!” and pointed to a Tom DeMark Sequential sell signal on the three-day chart “right at the local top,” which he said “trigger[ed] the ongoing pullback.” His remarks follow a weekend note flagging $2.40 as the “next key support level to watch” after that three-day TD sell signal. Martinez expanded on market structure, arguing that while the $3.00 area has intermittently acted as support, historical accumulation patterns make $2.80 a temporary buffer, with “real support” beginning below $2.48—a zone he has mapped using on-chain positioning. He reiterated on Aug. 3 that “past accumulation behavior points to $2.80 as a temporary buffer for XRP, but real support begins below $2.48,” adding that the most consequential level on his dashboard remains $2.40. Independent coverage of his analysis echoed those thresholds, framing $2.80 as a light cushion with heavier demand pockets sub-$2.50. Flow data has added to the bearish case in the near term. Martinez said whales have offloaded over 720 million XRP, intensifying sell-side pressure in recent sessions; earlier, on Aug. 2, he specified that “whales have sold over 710 million $XRP in the past 24 hours!” That spike in large-holder distribution has been picked up by multiple market trackers and recaps over the past few days. He also flagged the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) signal turning sharply negative. “The MVRV ratio just flashed a death cross,” Martinez wrote, calling it “another sign that a steeper correction could be underway.” The post underscores the crossover as a warning of rising downside risk if short-term holders’ cost basis begins to overhang market value. While “death cross” language is more commonly associated with moving-average pairs, Martinez uses the term here to describe a momentum break in MVRV curves. The TD Sequential—a Tom DeMark-designed exhaustion model often used to anticipate trend reversals—has been central to Martinez’s view since late July, when he tracked a three-day “sell” print near the top of the latest rally leg. He has since framed the path of least resistance as lower unless the market can establish sustained closes back above the high-volume node near $3.00–$3.20, while on-chain profiles continue to privilege $2.48–$2.40 as the area of “real” demand. As he put it on Aug. 3: “The next key support level to watch is $2.40!” For now, Martinez’s roadmap rests on three pillars: an exhaustion sell on the 3-day TD Sequential, large-holder distribution in the hundreds of millions of XRP, and a bearish MVRV crossover, all of which he argues raise the probability of a deeper corrective leg toward the high-$2s and, if momentum deteriorates, the mid-$2s. Whether bulls can defend the shallower buffers near $2.80 may determine if XRP’s decline remains a garden-variety pullback or morphs into a larger reset toward his $2.40 magnet. At press time, XRP traded at $2.93.

After a solid Q4 204 that was only tainted by the correction of H1 2025, it is only right to ask: Is crypto a good investment? The right or wrong answer continues to spark debate with pessimism now that Bitcoin has been steadily selling off in the past few days, dropping to as low as $112,000. Even with the recent contraction, investors and skeptics should remind themselves that BTC ▼-0.86% and some of the best cryptos to buy were among the top-performing products in the global financial market. In August, Spark (SPK) and Zora (ZORA) were noteworthy performers, adding 300% in roughly one month and 700% in two months, respectively. ZORA2PriceZORA224h7d30d1yAll time These two are just highlights, as many others posted triple-digit gains with some, including Bitcoin Hyper, on the contention of being the next cryptos to explode once they list on top exchanges. DISCOVER: Next 1000X Crypto: 10+ Crypto Tokens That Can Hit 1000x in 2025 Is Crypto a Good Investment? 3 Compelling Reasons Why Confidence is high because, unlike in the past, massive institutional adoption, supportive regulatory shifts, and market dynamics could create new opportunities for aggressive and even passive crypto investors. In 2025, if you are still on the fence, wondering whether to explore some of the top-performing cryptos and be part of this fast-growing industry, consider these possible drivers: 1. Altcoin ETFs: Will Institutions Drive Growth? Unlike Gary Gensler’s tenure, where enforcement actions regulated crypto projects, there is a major relief under President Donald Trump and changes under the SEC. The regulator took a more crypto-friendly stance in 2025, paving the way for the approval of more spot altcoin ETFs. So far, issuers of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs cumulatively manage over $170 billion worth of BTC and ETH-backed spot ETFs. BlackRock, one of the world’s largest asset managers, is the largest issuer of both spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. (Source: SosoValue) As crypto prices exploded, multiple applications by different asset managers to the SEC have been filed requesting that the regulator approve several spot altcoin ETFs. Some of these filings have been for spot XRP ETFs, and others for spot Solana ETFs. There are even applications for the agency to approve a spot Dogecoin ETF. While BlackRock has yet to file for another spot altcoin ETF, apart from Ethereum, which was approved in 2024, the regulator will likely approve more altcoin ETFs in 2025. On Polymarket, there is a 99% probability that the SEC will approve a spot Solana ETF by the end of the year. (Source: Polymarket) Meanwhile, in early July, the regulator offered guidance to fast-track the approval of crypto ETFs. The SEC established clearer disclosure requirements that shorten the time for a spot crypto ETF to go live. DISCOVER: 9+ Best High-Risk, High-Reward Crypto to Buy in 2025 2. Bullish September: Confirmation of Whether Crypto Is Still A Good Investment? Historically, September has been a red month for crypto. From 2017 through to 2022, crypto prices, including some of the best cryptocurrencies to invest in, posted roughly 7% in losses in September. However, things have been up in the past two years, per Coinglass. In 2024, crypto prices rose 7.29% in September and added 3.91% during that time in 2023. (Source: Coinglass) The rapid expansion in September coincided with the United States SEC approving spot Ethereum ETFs, and in the same year, in early 2024, the regulator approved spot Bitcoin ETFs. These two products, issued by, among others, BlackRock, opened up crypto to institutional investment, explaining the stellar expansion, a divergence from the better part of crypto history. This could change in 2025, especially now that Ethereum has been resilient and that, despite losses, Bitcoin is still trading above $110,000. Moreover, the Altcoin Season Index is at 39, signaling early rotation into altcoins. The index has been rising steadily since late June. As long as Ethereum, Solana, and other top altcoins expand, it only signals that interest in crypto is high and it could be the best time to jump in. (Source: Coinglass Altcoin Season Index) DISCOVER: Best Meme Coin ICOs to Invest in 2025 3. Bitcoin as a Hedge Against Global Risks Like his first term in power, Donald Trump moved the market through tariffs and other demands. Nothing much has changed in 2025, except now that the United States’ national debt is unsustainably high. Accordingly, some measures have been taken. Trump has imposed tariffs on nations, including China and India, creating geopolitical tensions. In recent weeks, Jerome Powell of the Federal Reserve has also been in his crosshairs. Trump wants the central bank to slash interest rates, which only means one thing: debasement. A combination of high debt in the United States, tariff risks, and currency debasement through low interest rates is why Bitcoin is increasingly emerging as a hedge against global risks. Bitcoin has a fixed total supply and is deflationary, in that emissions will decrease over time despite the ever-increasing demand. For this reason, Bitcoin is considered a store of value and an alternative to traditional assets, including gold. Institutional adoption is further solidifying its role. Bitcoin Treasuries data shows that more public companies are adding Bitcoin to their treasuries. Strategy currently holds 628,791 BTC, while MARA Holdings now controls 50,000 BTC. (Source: Bitcoin Treasuries) DISCOVER: The 12+ Hottest Crypto Presales to Buy Right Now Is Crypto a Good Investment Still in 2025? 3 Reasons To Go Bid Is crypto a good investment in 2025? Bitcoin is cooling off from all-time highs Altcoin ETFs, including one for a spot Dogecoin ETF, are why investors are bullish September 2025 could turn bullish for crypto Bitcoin serves as a hedge against global risks The post Is Crypto Still a Good Investment in 2025? Here’s 3 Reasons Why You Should Bid appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

The Bitcoin price has rebounded once again after initially testing the waters with a crash to $112,000. This was spurred by profit-taking as the digital asset had risen to levels not seen before back in July 2025. However, this recovery does not mean that Bitcoin is completely out of the water, especially given the fact that it has retraced to a level that would be considered bearish at this point. Bearish FVG Could Send Bitcoin Price Crashing In an analysis, crypto analyst Kamran Asghar revealed that the Bitcoin retrace could only be temporary and short-lived as it has moved back into a bearish Fair Value Gap (FVG). This comes after a small bounce from $112,000 toward $115,000, with this bearish FVG lying between $114,000 and $115,500. This fair value gap had been created following the price crash from $118,000, suggesting that the Bitcoin price would be looking to fill it again. Additionally, this level acts as a major supply zone, meaning that bulls would have to turn up the buying if the Bitcoin price is to cross this level without issue. Given the fact that the bearish FVG and the supply zone are riding ahead of the cryptocurrency, it shows that there is a lot of resistance building at this level. Kamran suggests that the next move after hitting this supply zone would be a rejection from this level, leading to a further beating down of the price. How Low Could BTC Go? In the event of a hard rejection, the crypto analyst sees the Bitcoin price tumbling further downward into mid-July levels between $107,500 and $109,000. This would mean another 5% crash for the Bitcoin price before it is able to find support. The silver lining of this possible crash is the fact that Bitcoin has major support at this level. Thus, Bitcoin bulls could stage a rebound using this level as the next lift-off point for a recovery. Due to this, the crypto analyst warns investors to keep an eye on the digital asset to see how it reacts at this level. Interestingly, at this time, the Bitcoin funding rate is still positive, Coinglass shows. What this means is that traders believe that the digital asset is still in a bull market, and more investors are betting on the price continuing to rise from here. However, the positive funding rate has seen some decline in the month of August, suggesting a slowdown among bulls.

The euro has staged a remarkable bullish reversal against the US dollar last Friday, 1 August, ex-post weaker-than-expected US non-farm payrolls data release. The EUR/USD jumped by 1.5% which put a halt to the prior week-long corrective decline from the 24 July 2025 swing high of 1.1789. Since Monday, 4 August, the EUR/USD has drifted in a tight sideways range of 69 pips as market participants digest a slew of data and news flow in the past few sessions, rising stagflation risk due to a flat US ISM Services PMI print for July, while its Prices Paid sub-component jumped to a three-year high. Also, US President Trump’s upcoming nomination for the replacement of the outgoing Fed Governor Kugler, who resigned last Friday that is likely to be made known by the end of this week. Let’s decipher the short-term movements of the EUR/USD from a technical analysis perspective. Fig. 1: EUR/USD minor trend as of 6 Aug 2025 (Source: TradingView) Preferred trend bias (1-3 days) A potential minor bullish breakout may occur at this juncture for the EUR/USD after three sessions of sideways consolidation. Bullish bias with key short-term pivotal support at 1.1520 and a clearance above 1.1600 (also the 50-day moving average) sees the next intermediate resistances coming in at 1.1640, and 1.1680/1705 (see Fig. 1). Key elements The hourly RSI momentum indicator has managed to stage a series of “higher lows” while remaining on support by a parallel ascending trendline in place since 31 July. These observations suggest a potential build-up of short-term bullish momentum.The hourly Bollinger Bandwidth has flashed out a “volatility squeeze” condition where it drifted to an extreme low contraction level of 0.2 on Tuesday, 5 August.A “volatility squeeze” condition precedes a potential price action breakout movement in the EUR/USD.Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days) Failure to hold at 1.1520 invalidates the bullish scenario where the EUR/USD may see a minor slide to retest the next intermediate supports of 1.1460 and 1.1400 (1 August 2025 swing low). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Coinbase has rolled out a new feature called Embedded Wallets, aimed at developers who want to bring crypto functionality directly into their apps. It’s part of the Coinbase Developer Platform and is currently in beta. The idea is simple. Instead of making users jump through hoops with seed phrases or external apps, developers can let people create a wallet just by logging in with email or SMS. Focused on Stablecoin Use This tool is clearly designed with stablecoins in mind. The wallet supports USDC by default and includes rewards for holding it. That makes it easier for apps to handle things like payouts, tipping, or digital cash-style payments without dealing with crypto volatility. Coinbase is offering this through a single software kit, and it works for use cases like social apps, games, payments, and even token-powered tools. No Extensions or Seed Phrases The biggest convenience here is that users don’t need browser wallets or plugins. There’s no seed phrase to write down or keys to manually manage. Users simply enter their unusual details, and the system creates a wallet for them in a fraction of a second. Even though Coinbase runs the backend, users still hold their own keys in secure environments. DISCOVER: Best New Cryptocurrencies to Invest in 2025 Quick Integration for Teams Coinbase claims developers can get started with just a few lines of code. That means even small teams can add wallet features without building everything from scratch. The beta is free until the end of September if you’re already using Coinbase Onramp. It’s a clear push to make onboarding and rewards smoother without needing multiple services glued together. Secure and Consistent by Design The backend is built on Coinbase’s existing infrastructure, the same one used for its exchange and the Base layer. Keys are stored in trusted execution environments, and developers can set their own policies for things like token swaps or staking. Everything stays consistent across networks like Ethereum or Solana, so users don’t get confused by changes in layout or process. BitcoinPriceMarket CapBTC$2.27T24h7d30d1yAll time From Gaming to International Payroll Coinbase says early adopters are already putting the wallets to use. One example is remittance apps that want to send USDC abroad instantly without relying on banking rails. Another is creator platforms paying people in stablecoins. The biggest theme is cutting down friction so people can use Web3 features without needing to understand crypto infrastructure. DISCOVER: 20+ Next Crypto to Explode in 2025 Stablecoin Regulations Add Momentum The timing lines up with recent U.S. policy developments. With the GENIUS Act now in effect, there’s a legal framework in place for stablecoins. That gives developers more confidence to build real apps on top of these rails. Coinbase is framing Embedded Wallets as a step toward making those rails easier to access for everyone. Watching the Beta Rollout The beta runs through September, and there are a few key things to keep an eye on. How many apps will actually adopt it? Will the swaps and onramps work smoothly when more users show up? Will idle balances in USDC be used in new ways? And how will regulators respond once consumer apps start to integrate these features? DISCOVER: 20+ Next Crypto to Explode in 2025 Join The 99Bitcoins News Discord Here For The Latest Market Updates Key Takeaways Coinbase Embedded Wallets let users create wallets using just email or SMS, with no seed phrases or browser extensions needed. The tool supports USDC by default, making it ideal for stablecoin payments, tips, or cross-border transactions. Developers can integrate Embedded Wallets with just a few lines of code using the Coinbase SDK, simplifying Web3 onboarding. Trusted execution wallets secure the wallets, while users retain control over their private keys. The beta rollout runs through September, offering early access for apps that want smooth USDC payouts and crypto integration. The post Coinbase Rolls Out Embedded Wallets to Simplify Web3 Access appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

As Solana (SOL) attempts to reclaim a crucial level, a market watcher forecasted a massive rally for this quarter. However, some analysts suggested that the cryptocurrency will retest the range lows soon. Solana Nears Crucial Level On Tuesday, Solana surged 9.6% from the recent lows, driven by the start of Solana Mobile’s global shipments of the Seeker, its second-generation Web3 smartphone, to over 50 countries. The news propelled the altcoin to a multi-day high of $171, fueling bullish sentiment among investors before its price retraced to the mid-zone of its local range. Notably, SOL has been hovering between the $140-$180 range since the April-May breakout, attempting to reclaim the local high for the past three months. During the June correction, SOL momentarily lost its local range lows, retesting the $120-$130 zone as support. However, the cryptocurrency reclaimed its range amid the July rally, briefly breaking out of the upper boundary and hitting a five-month high of $206 two weeks ago. Since then, Solana has seen a 25% correction from the highs to the mid-zone of its local price range, currently trading between the $160-$164 levels. Amid its recent performance, analyst Ali Martinez highlighted SOL’s most crucial levels, based on the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) indicator. According to the chart, the key support area for the altcoin is around the $165 mark, where the largest supply cluster is with 44.4 million SOL, or 7.42% of the supply. As a result, Solana must reclaim the $165 level soon, or it will risk turning this key level into a key resistance, leading to further downside. Nonetheless, if this level is reclaimed, then the altcoin would have to retest the crucial resistance levels around $177 and $189, where investors have also accumulated 27.6 million and 23.6 million SOL, respectively. SOL Preparing For The ‘Real’ Run? Analyst Crypto Jelle highlighted Solana’s recent price action, asserting that SOL is “quietly trending higher” with higher lows and turning resistance levels as support. The market watcher forecasted that Solana would reach a new all-time high this quarter, as he doubts “the train stops anytime soon” once it finally breaks out of the $200 resistance. Meanwhile, Crypto Batman suggested that the altcoin will see another correction soon. To the analyst, Solana could have a 10% drop to its four-month ascending support line, which sits around the $150 level, before “the real move.” Per the chart, the cryptocurrency has bounced from this support line twice, in April and June, before rallying to local highs during the May and July price breakouts. Similarly, analyst Ted Pillows asserted that SOL could see a significant rally this year despite the recent underperformance, as network activity remains strong. He predicted a 10%-15% correction, affirming that “a dip towards $140-$150 before reversal is highly likely to happen.” As of this writing, Solana is trading at $$163, a 3.3% decline in the daily timeframe.

In August 2024, Leland King Fawcette sold his TROLL holdings for approximately $1,300. At the time, the Solana meme coin had barely moved, and it looked like just another throwaway token. Fast forward to today, and TROLL’s market cap has exploded past $158 million. If he had held on, his bag could have been worth more than $36 million. Bought for the Hype, Sold Before the Price Explosion Fawcette says he picked up TROLL with plans to promote it through a few influencer campaigns. But after a few days of silence and no price action, he decided it wasn’t going anywhere. The project seemed dead in the water, so he sold and moved on. At the time, the token was barely scraping a $9,000 market cap. Months of Nothing, Then a Sudden Surge For a while, that decision made sense. TROLL stayed flat well into 2025. Then in April, the coin suddenly caught fire. By July 26, it had reached a peak market capitalization of nearly $166 million before cooling slightly. That’s when the missed opportunity started making headlines. Pump.fun Helped Spark the Run TROLL was created on Pump.fun, a Solana-based platform that has become a go-to spot for launching meme tokens. It climbed the site’s rankings to become the ninth most traded coin on the platform and one of the top meme coins by overall market cap. At one point, it gained over 900 percent in less than two weeks. DISCOVER: Next 1000X Crypto: 10+ Crypto Tokens That Can Hit 1000x in 2025 No Regrets from the Seller Despite the missed millions, Fawcette doesn’t seem too bothered. He said TROLL looked like any other meme coin at the time, one of countless tokens with little sign of life. Looking back, he admits the outcome was wild but says he doesn’t feel regret. For him, it was just another trade that didn’t pan out. SolanaPriceMarket CapSOL$88.16B24h7d30d1yAll time Some Say He Fumbled, Others Say He Played It Right The crypto community has been quick to weigh in. Some traders say he fumbled generational wealth. Others say it was a reasonable exit based on what he saw at the time. There’s also the quiet majority who know this sort of thing happens every week in meme coin land. Meme Coins Are Heating Up Again TROLL’s story comes at a time when meme coin mania is back in full swing. Solana’s low fees and fast transaction speeds have made it a breeding ground for viral tokens. Pump.fun, in particular, has seen massive activity, with new tokens popping up constantly. Some take off, most don’t, and the timing always feels like a coin toss. DISCOVER: 9+ Best High-Risk, High-Reward Crypto to Buy in August2025 Timing Is Everything in This Game This situation highlights how unpredictable the meme coin space can be. Traders know that even a small position can balloon into millions, but they also know that holding dead coins can lead nowhere. It’s a constant gamble between cutting losses and holding for that one-in-a-million moonshot. Where It Goes from Here Now the question is whether TROLL has more room to grow or if this was its peak moment. Either way, the buzz around it isn’t dying down yet. The story has already become another cautionary tale and a badge of honor in crypto circles. Everyone’s got a bag they wish they had held longer. Fawcette’s just happened to be worth $36 million. DISCOVER: 20+ Next Crypto to Explode in 2025 Join The 99Bitcoins News Discord Here For The Latest Market Updates Key Takeaways A trader sold $1,300 worth of TROLL in 2024 before it skyrocketed to a $158 million market cap, missing out on $36 million. TROLL stayed flat for months before suddenly surging in April 2025, showing how unpredictable meme coin trends can be. The token was launched on Pump.fun, a Solana-based platform fueling meme coin growth, and reached top ranks on the site. Despite the missed windfall, the seller expressed no regret, saying the project looked dead at the time of his exit. The crypto community is divided on the decision, using it as a reminder of the risks and rewards of meme coin speculation. The post Trader Dumps TROLL Meme Coin Early, Misses $36 Million Windfall appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

Dogecoin started a fresh decline from the $0.2120 zone against the US Dollar. DOGE is now consolidating and might decline below the $0.1940 support. DOGE price started a fresh decline below the $0.2050 level. The price is trading below the $0.20 level and the 100-hourly simple moving average. There is a key declining channel forming with resistance at $0.20 on the hourly chart of the DOGE/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The price could start a fresh upward move if it clears the $0.20 and $0.2050 resistance levels. Dogecoin Price Dips Again Dogecoin price started a fresh decline from the $0.2120 resistance zone, underperforming Bitcoin and Ethereum. DOGE declined below the $0.2050 and $0.20 support levels. There was a steady decline below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $0.1886 swing low to the $0.2112 high. The bears even pushed the price below the $0.1980 level. There is also a key declining channel forming with resistance at $0.20 on the hourly chart of the DOGE/USD pair. Dogecoin price is now trading below the $0.1980 level and the 100-hourly simple moving average. Immediate resistance on the upside is near the $0.20 level. The first major resistance for the bulls could be near the $0.2050 level. The next major resistance is near the $0.2120 level. A close above the $0.2120 resistance might send the price toward the $0.2250 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $0.2350 level. The next major stop for the bulls might be $0.250. More Losses In DOGE? If DOGE’s price fails to climb above the $0.2050 level, it could start a fresh decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $0.1940 level or the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $0.1886 swing low to the $0.2112 high. The next major support is near the $0.1880 level. The main support sits at $0.1750. If there is a downside break below the $0.1750 support, the price could decline further. In the stated case, the price might decline toward the $0.1680 level or even $0.1620 in the near term. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for DOGE/USD is now gaining momentum in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for DOGE/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $0.1940 and $0.1880. Major Resistance Levels – $0.2000 and $0.2050.

Bitcoin is currently undergoing a period of downward movement after briefly setting a new all-time high earlier last month. Over the past week, the world’s largest cryptocurrency has declined by nearly 4%, trading at $113,993 at the time of writing. This represents a drop of approximately 7.2% from the peak price of above $123,000 reached in July. The decline has sparked renewed discussion among analysts about the asset’s current price discovery phase and what it could mean for the remainder of 2025. Bitcoin Price Discovery and the Potential for Q4 Gains CryptoQuant analyst Oinonen shared his latest assessment of Bitcoin’s market performance, noting that while the recent pullback appears significant, it primarily reflects technical market conditions. In his post on the QuickTake platform, he explained that a combination of macroeconomic uncertainty, technical indicators turning bearish, and liquidation events has contributed to the decline. However, he described the ongoing situation as a “technical correction” within Bitcoin’s longer-term bullish structure. Despite the short-term weakness, analysts remain focused on Bitcoin’s price discovery process. This phase, according to Oinonen, is essential in establishing the asset’s fair market value as supply and demand interact in the market. Following the all-time high of $123,400 on July 14, Bitcoin appears to be consolidating, potentially setting the stage for further upward movement later in the year. “Bitcoin has historically performed well in the fourth quarter,” Oinonen noted, suggesting that a return to its previous peak and even a potential move toward $200,000 could be on the horizon if historical patterns hold. Additionally, the analyst pointed to Binance’s high stablecoin reserves as a factor that may influence Bitcoin’s trajectory. These reserves represent capital that could flow into Bitcoin and other digital assets if market sentiment improves. A positive shift in buying activity, combined with Bitcoin’s reflexive market behavior, could support further gains, although the extent to which this would benefit altcoins remains uncertain. Caution Over Negative Coinbase Premium Signals While some market participants anticipate a possible rebound later this year, other analysts are urging caution. Another CryptoQuant contributor, known as BQYoutube, highlighted a recent change in the Coinbase Premium Index, a metric comparing prices on Coinbase versus other exchanges. Since June 30, the premium has shifted to negative, indicating weaker buying pressure from US-based investors. “Historically, stronger Bitcoin rallies have coincided with a positive Coinbase Premium,” BQYouTube wrote, suggesting that traders may want to wait for signs of renewed spot demand before expecting a sustainable uptrend. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

XRP price struggled to continue higher above the $3.10 zone. The price is trimming gains and might decline below the $2.90 support. XRP price is correcting gains from the $3.10 zone. The price is now trading below $2.980 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There was a break below a bullish trend line with support at $3.060 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The pair could start another increase if it stays above the $2.880 zone. XRP Price Dips Again XRP price struggled to continue higher above the $3.10 resistance zone, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. The price formed a short-term top and started a fresh decline below the $3.00 level. There was a break below a bullish trend line with support at $3.060 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair. The pair dipped below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $2.730 swing low to the $3.106 high. The price is now trading below $3.00 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. The bulls are now active near the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $2.730 swing low to the $3.106 high. On the upside, the price might face resistance near the $2.950 level. The first major resistance is near the $3.00 level. A clear move above the $3.00 resistance might send the price toward the $3.0650 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $3.10 resistance or even $3.120 in the near term. The next major hurdle for the bulls might be near the $3.20 zone. More Losses? If XRP fails to clear the $3.00 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $2.920 level. The next major support is near the $2.880 level. If there is a downside break and a close below the $2.880 level, the price might continue to decline toward the $2.810 support. The next major support sits near the $2.750 zone where the bulls might take a stand. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for XRP/USD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for XRP/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $2.920 and $2.880. Major Resistance Levels – $3.00 and $3.10.

A quant has explained how altcoin inflows into cryptocurrency exchange Binance might act as a leading indicator for the market. Spikes In Binance Altcoin Inflows Tend To Precede Corrections In a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, an analyst has talked about the trend in the altcoin exchange inflows going to Binance. The indicator of relevance here is the “Exchange Inflow Transaction Count,” which measures, as its name suggests, the total number of deposit transactions that investors are making to a given centralized exchange. Below is a chart for the indicator that shows the trend in the altcoin deposits occurring on the various exchanges. As is visible in the graph, the altcoin Exchange Inflow Transaction Count peaked on all exchanges right before both the 2024 market tops, implying that deposit activity intensified on the platforms. Generally, investors transfer their coins to exchanges when they want to sell, so spikes in exchange inflows can lead into bearish price action. This appears to be what happened in these two instances. Interestingly, during the latest market drawdown that has occurred over the past few days, inflows on only one exchange have seen a spike: Binance. There have also been other instances in the past where this pattern developed. “Spikes in Binance inflows (represented by the purple area) frequently precede downward price movements or market corrections,” notes the analyst. The quant has also explained that Binance is not only the largest exchange in the sector in terms of trading volume, but also a hub for altcoin activity from both retail and institutional entities. As such, investor behavior on the platform can be quite relevant for the wider market. Speaking of alts, CryptoQuant has shared a few new indicators that can be used to track smart money. One of these is the Average Order Size, which differentiates between futures buy orders by their scale. The above chart shows the indicator’s data for Hyperliquid (HYPE). It would appear that whale-sized buy orders appeared when the altcoin was trading around $11 earlier in the year. Since then, its price has climbed to $39. Another indicator is the Retail Activity Through Trading Frequency. This one is the opposite: it points out periods of elevated activity from the small hands. From this graph, it’s apparent that overheated periods of retail interest coincided with price highs in Gala (GALA). ETH Price At the time of writing, Ethereum is trading around $3,600, down more than 4% over the past week.

Ethereum price found support near the $3,400 zone and recovered. ETH is struggling to settle above $3,700 and might dip once again. Ethereum started a fresh increase above the $3,440 and $3,500 levels. The price is trading below $3,620 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at $3,620 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken). The pair could start a fresh increase if it remains supported above the $3,500 zone in the near term. Ethereum Price Dips Below $3,600 Ethereum price started a fresh increase from the $3,365 support zone, beating Bitcoin. ETH price was able to recover above the $3,400 and $3,500 resistance levels. There was a move above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $3,877 swing high to the $3,369 low. The bulls even pushed the price above the $3,700 resistance zone. However, the bears remained active near the $3,750 zone. The 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $3,877 swing high to the $3,369 low acted as a resistance. The price started another decline below $3,700. There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at $3,620 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD. Ethereum price is now trading below $3,600 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. On the upside, the price could face resistance near the $3,620 level. The next key resistance is near the $3,700 level. The first major resistance is near the $3,750 level. A clear move above the $3,750 resistance might send the price toward the $3,820 resistance. An upside break above the $3,820 resistance might call for more gains in the coming sessions. In the stated case, Ether could rise toward the $4,000 resistance zone or even $4,120 in the near term. More Losses In ETH? If Ethereum fails to clear the $3,620 resistance, it could start a fresh decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $3,550 level. The first major support sits near the $3,510 zone. A clear move below the $3,510 support might push the price toward the $3,420 support. Any more losses might send the price toward the $3,350 support level in the near term. The next key support sits at $3,220. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for ETH/USD is gaining momentum in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI – The RSI for ETH/USD is now below the 50 zone. Major Support Level – $3,550 Major Resistance Level – $3,750

Ethereum’s price has experienced moderate declines over the past week, dropping around 5% after a period of notable gains in previous months. At the time of writing, ETH is trading near $3,633, fluctuating between the $3,500 and $3,700 range over the past day. This price movement follows a broader market cooling, with many traders engaging in profit-taking after Ethereum’s earlier upward trend. Recent on-chain and derivatives market data suggest that Ethereum may be heading into a consolidation phase. Derivatives Market Data Signals Selling Pressure CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost shared an outlook indicating increased selling pressure and potential short-term weakness in the ETH futures market. The analyst highlighted that despite several attempts to breach the $4,000 resistance level, Ethereum has yet to break through, indicating possible market hesitancy at current levels. Darkfost emphasized that the behavior of the futures market has shifted notably over the past few weeks. According to data from Binance, Ethereum’s taker buy/sell ratio has dropped to 0.87, one of the lowest levels observed this year. A ratio below 1 typically indicates that sell orders are dominating over buy orders, suggesting that traders are either closing long positions or opening shorts. The analyst noted that this trend began around July 18 and has remained mostly negative since then, limiting upward momentum. Additionally, the seven-day and 30-day simple moving averages (SMAs) have started to trend downward, which could be a sign of slowing market momentum. Binance continues to hold the largest share of ETH futures open interest among exchanges, making sentiment on this platform particularly influential. With sellers currently exerting more control, the data suggests a potential continuation of this consolidation phase until buying activity strengthens. Mixed Views on Ethereum’s Longer-Term Outlook While near-term market data points to a challenging period for Ethereum, some analysts maintain a positive longer-term outlook. A recent post by Titan of Crypto, a well-followed market commentator on X, projected a potential price target of $8,000. According to Titan of Crypto, Ethereum’s price structure is forming a large monthly triangle pattern that could eventually lead to a breakout, opening the way toward a significant rally. This bullish view aligns with other optimistic forecasts on X, where traders speculate that Ethereum could revisit or surpass its previous all-time highs once key resistance levels are cleared and broader market demand returns. However, for now, the lack of strong futures buying activity and persistent selling pressure in derivatives markets appear to be capping short-term gains. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Bitcoin price is struggling to recover above the $116,200 zone. BTC is now consolidating and might decline further below the $112,500 zone. Bitcoin started a fresh decline from the $115,500 zone. The price is trading below $114,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $114,400 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might start another increase if it clears the $115,500 resistance zone. Bitcoin Price Faces Resistance Bitcoin price found support near the $112,000 zone and started a recovery wave. BTC was able to climb above the $113,200 and $114,000 resistance levels. The price climbed above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $118,918 swing high to the $112,000 low. However, the bears were active near the $115,500 resistance and the price struggled to continue higher. The 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $118,918 swing high to the $112,000 low acted as a resistance. Bitcoin is now trading below $114,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is also a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $114,400 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Immediate resistance on the upside is near the $114,000 level. The first key resistance is near the $115,000 level. The next resistance could be $115,500. A close above the $115,500 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $116,500 resistance level. Any more gains might send the price toward the $118,000 level. The main target could be $120,000. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $115,000 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $113,200 level. The first major support is near the $112,500 level. The next support is now near the $112,000 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $110,500 support in the near term. The main support sits at $108,500, below which BTC might continue to move down. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $112,600, followed by $112,000. Major Resistance Levels – $115,000 and $115,500.

The price actions of the Japan 225 CFD Index (a proxy for the Nikkei 225 futures) have staged a recent decline of -5.5% from its intraday high of 42,084 on 24 July 2025 (around 1% away from its all-time high of 42,513, printed in July 2024) to hit a low of 39,980 on 1 August 2025. Right now, we will examine whether the Japan 225 CFD has hit an inflection point or will the corrective decline from the 24 July high will extend further to the downside from a macro and technical analysis perspective. Rising Japanese wages should boost consumer confidence Fig. 1: Japan core-core CPI, average cash earnings (wages) & consumer confidence long-term trends (Source: MacroMicro) Japan’s nominal wages continued to increase steadily, as they rose by 2.5% y/y in June, the fastest pace in four months (see Fig. 1). When adjusted for inflation, real wages declined by 1.3% but the contraction is less than May’s decline of 2.6% which suggests June’s increase in nominal wages is catching up with the rise of core-core CPI inflation rate in Japan. In addition, major Japanese firms agreed to wage hikes averaging over 5% during this year’s spring negotiations, which in turn is likely to push up the growth of real wages back into positive territory in the next wage dataset release in the July-August period. A sustained rise in wage growth could boost consumer confidence, potentially creating a positive feedback loop that lifts Japanese equities and reinforces the medium-term bullish trend of the Nikkei 225. Fig. 2: Japan 225 CFD Index minor trend as of 6 Aug 2025 (Source: TradingView) Preferred trend bias (1-3 days) The one-week minor corrective decline of the Japan 225 CFD Index (a proxy for the Nikkei 225 futures) from 24 July 2025 high to 1 August 2025 low is likely to have reached an exhaustion/inflection point where the next move may be skewed towards the bulls. Bullish bias above 40,130 key short-term pivotal support for potential recovery towards the next intermediate resistances at 41,285, 41,610, and 41,975/42,084 (see Fig. 2). Key elements The -5.5% minor corrective decline of the Japan 225 CFD Index has stalled right at the medium-term ascending trendline support in place since 23 May 2025 low and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of prior bullish impulsive up move from 17 July 2025 low to 24 July 2025 high.Its price actions have traded back up above the 20-day moving average since Monday, 4 August.The hourly RSI momentum indicator has continued to inch higher along a parallel ascending support and has not reached its overbought region (above 70). These observations suggest a build-up in bullish momentum, at least in the short term.Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days) A break below 40,130 invalidates the bullish scenario for an extension of the minor corrective decline towards the next supports at 39,740 and 39,455 (also the 50-day moving average). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

In his August 5 “Macro Monday” livestream, crypto analyst Josh Olszewicz delivered a review of the market’s late-summer state, arguing that while Bitcoin’s price action has gone quiet, the broader cycle remains intact. “We’re in this pocket of seasonal weakness for August and September that we typically see most years,” he explained, pointing to seasonality charts showing that historically, Bitcoin underperforms in this time window. “It’s a high likelihood that August and September is a giant nothing burger,” he added. Is The Bitcoin Bull Run Over? At day 978 of the current cycle, the question many investors are asking, Olszewicz noted, is simple but existential: is the cycle already over? Will it end this year? Or is there more upside ahead? His answer leaned cautiously optimistic. “I’m in the ‘probably not over yet, could continue’ camp,” he said. “But we will have to see what happens in Q4. Ultimately, that’s going to determine it.” From a technical standpoint, the analyst sees no reason to declare the top is in. “Technicals still look fine. Price still looks okay. We had a pullback. All that is fine,” he said, emphasizing that Bitcoin has not yet exhibited the typical parabolic advance associated with major tops. Nor have other macro or on-chain metrics shown signs of terminal overheating. “We don’t have other metrics screaming from the rooftop saying it’s time yet.” However, the short-term setup is underwhelming. After a cup-and-handle breakout that briefly pushed price toward the $122,000–$123,000 region, momentum faded. Olszewicz doubts such levels can be reclaimed soon: “In the next two weeks we’ll know if we can start to creep back towards $120,000, which is asking a lot admittedly for August.” The wildcard, he said, is ETF flows. “Do we see ETF flows for any reason? Then do we see treasury companies continuing to buy? Those are the marginal buyers right now.” He suggested that ETF buyers could return due to a combination of underweight positioning, opportunistic dip-buying, and monthly rebalancing dynamics. Still, he remains neutral overall. “Just a general softening of any bullishness we may have had,” he said. “Now it’d be a different story if this is October and we’re seeing this. That’s not normal.” A further reason for caution is the collapse in futures basis across major assets. “Premium is all the way down to under 7% on BTC. It’s under 8% on ETH. And I think SOL is a little more illiquid, but even SOL is way down—15% from 35%,” he noted. That contraction in futures premiums, typically a sign of speculative demand drying up, reflects a broader risk-off mood. “Not a lot of bullish sentiment, not a lot of craziness,” Olszewicz observed. On-chain risk metrics confirm the trend. “There’s a decline here in risk appetite,” he said, referring to metrics like unrealized profit versus MVRV. He added that if Bitcoin were to enter a parabolic advance, “you will see this metric shoot up… But what’s it going to take?” Q4 Or Bust He floated a few possibilities: rate cuts, weakening Fed independence, or perhaps just seasonal strength and macro chaos in Q4. But for now, he advised traders to “take it easy on the 50X leverage,” especially those who’ve already made significant gains this cycle. “Do I need to put risk back on? Do I need to be as risky as I was earlier?” he asked rhetorically. “Or does it make more sense to be less risky here?” From a macroeconomic perspective, the picture is mixed. Inflation data from Trueflation remains low—currently at 1.65%—but Olszewicz warned that new post–August 1 tariffs may raise prices in the months ahead. “We are adding inflationary pressures with tariffs, no doubt about it,” he said, though the effect will take time to appear in the data. Meanwhile, core PCE is headed in the wrong direction, and the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is printing 2.1% growth for Q3—hardly recessionary, but not robust either. Labor market data continues to cloud the outlook. “If we account for a non-collapsing labor force participation, we could be as high as 4.9% on the actual unemployment rate,” Olszewicz warned. “And we’re continuing to see a degradation in job availability for manufacturing,” particularly in “Heartland Rust Belt types of jobs.” Liquidity dynamics are also in flux. He drew attention to the draining of the Fed’s reverse repo facility—once a $2 trillion reservoir of sidelined capital—which has supported risk assets through 2023 and 2024. “As this gets drained closer to completion, there’s a potential likelihood for liquidity hiccups and a liquidity intervention by the Fed,” he said. Importantly, this has kept overall US liquidity flat, offsetting quantitative tightening. “Despite QT, the drain of the reverse repo has offset QT, and US liquidity by this metric has been basically flat since 2022.” What changed the game, Olszewicz said, was not liquidity per se, but the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs. “That has really been, in my opinion, a big difference maker,” he explained. “We got ETF approvals here, ETF started trading here, and the rest is history as far as flows are concerned.” In conclusion, Olszewicz emphasized that while the broader risk appetite has declined and price action remains dull, there is no evidence yet that the Bitcoin cycle has topped. “The cycle’s probably not over,” he said. “It’s just sleeping—and Q4 will ultimately determine whether it wakes up.” At press time, BTC traded at $113,041.