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According to a report by digital asset firm CoinShares, Bitcoin could see a surge of more than 65% from today’s price if it wins just a small slice of major monetary pools. At its current level just above $113,500, that jump would take BTC up to about $189,000. It’s a simple idea with big implications. Potential Market Share Based on reports, global liquidity—known as M2—is sitting at roughly $127 trillion, while all mined gold adds up to almost $24 trillion. CoinShares applies a so-called Total Addressable Market (TAM) model to those figures. If Bitcoin captures 2% of global M2 and 5% of gold’s market cap, the sum points to a $189,000 price tag. It doesn’t assume BTC will take over corporate treasuries or forex reserves, yet even that limited reach could send prices much higher. Some Bitcoin Investors Are Excited Many in the crypto crowd like how clear it is. You look at the size of the cash and gold markets. You pick some modest targets. Then you do the math. It shows that winning tiny slivers of those pools could be very rewarding. You don’t need a blanket take-over of every money market to make a strong case for Bitcoin as an investment. Top-Down Model In Action A TAM model starts at the top. It sizes up the biggest buckets—cash, deposits, gold—then assumes what share a newcomer might grab. It’s common in startup pitches. Here, CoinShares leans on data from the World Gold Council, Trading Economics and Glassnode to keep the numbers fresh. The big pools aren’t static, but they do highlight the scale of what’s out there. This method skips over many real hurdles. Regulation could slow adoption. New digital coins might offer competing features. Shifts in interest rates can shrink or swell M2 overnight. Even gold’s market value can dip if miners sell or central banks offload bars. That makes any model’s timeline shaky. Challenges And Timelines Based on projections, Bitcoin’s share of these markets might creep up over the next decade. That assumes steady gains in user trust, clearer rules from governments and smoother ways for big institutions to buy and hold crypto. If that path holds, hitting 2% of global liquidity and 5% of gold could be realistic. But if policies shift or fresh tech disappoints, the climb could stall. Whether Bitcoin reaches $189,000 will depend on a mix of policy, innovation and investor appetite. For now, the TAM view gives a neat snapshot of what could happen if the top coin starts grabbing those market shares. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

The Bitcoin market has been showing signs of increasing selling pressure, with its recent price action hinting at an even deeper distribution phase unfolding beneath the surface. Wyckoff Pattern Reveals Imminent Breakdown In an August 2 post on the social media platform X, crypto analyst Joao Wedson explained how the Bitcoin price may be at risk of a downturn over the coming months. The analyst based his conclusion on the Wyckoff Distribution model, a technical analysis framework that describes how smart money sells off assets at the top of a market cycle. Wedson highlighted in the post that a 13-phase schematic is unfolding in real-time, which signals that the institutional investors (known as “smart money”) are preparing to exit the market, even as the retail traders remain hopeful. The analyst started his breakdown with the Preliminary Supply (PSY) phase, where there are subtle signs of institutional sales, and a Buying Climax, where price hits a peak due to exhausted demand. This phase is then followed by an Automatic Reaction (AR), a sharp drop in Bitcoin’s price, defining the bottom of the distribution range. The fourth and fifth phases are Secondary Tests (ST), where price retests the highs of the distribution range, but with weaker momentum and volume. As the pattern matures, the price enters Phase B with sideways movement, confusing retail participants as the institutions quietly offload their coins. The most irrefutable signs appear in phases C and D, where there is first a Sign of Weakness (SOW), often characterized by a strong breakdown with volume; this is a major signal of demand fading. Then, there is a Last Point of Supply (LPSY), a weak rally towards the upside, which typically creates good setups for shorts. Finally, still within phases C and D, a break of ICE leads to a deeper fall, after which a second LPSY trap follows to seal the distribution. Is The Altcoin Rally Underway? Going further, Wedson pointed out that the market makers are rotating into altcoins. According to the analyst, altcoins are already exiting their accumulation zones and are being positioned for structural markups, reflecting increasing interest in the altcoin market. In contrast, Bitcoin has entered a weekly distribution phase, which may reflect as a weak or modest performance in the near term. Wedson added that, by the end of 2025, there will be a full rotation from BTC to altcoins, and then finally to fiat. As of this writing, Bitcoin is valued at about $113,439, reflecting no significant movement in the past 24 hours.

Popular market analyst and key opinion leader (KOL), Ted Pillows, shares an insight into the Solana (SOL) market, stating the altcoin is likely to experience further price corrections in the short term. This price forecast comes amid a general crypto meltdown during which Solana prices have crashed by over 15% in a week. SOL Charts Hint At Retrace To $140 As Bullish Pattern Forms In an X post on August 1, Pillows outlines a Solana price prediction based on a forming cup-and-handle pattern on the monthly chart. In general trading, the cup-and-handle represents a classic bullish continuation pattern. As observed in the chart below, it begins with a tea cup formation where price first declines and then gradually recovers, forming a “U” or bowl-shaped curve. After the cup, the price pulls back slightly, creating the “handle.” Pillows’ analysis indicates that Solana is currently at this stage of the bullish pattern following a previous price rally to $235 earlier in January 2025. Solana is now undergoing a long-term descending consolidation movement, which Pillows project will lead the altcoin to trade as low as $140-$150. Presently, SOL trades around $159, indicating the altcoin may still undergo an additional estimated 11% price loss despite the registered heavy corrections in the past week. However, being a bullish continuation pattern, Solana’s successful return to $140-150 price range would also signal a potential price rally. However, Pillows’ analysis also indicates that the altcoin must first break past the neckline price at $235 to validate such bullish intent. If this scenario plays out positively, the top market analyst predicts Solana to trade as high as $1,000, suggesting a potential 532.91% gain on present spot prices. Despite recent price corrections, Ted Pillows strongly supports Solana’s bullish potential, noting the altcoin continues to record high levels of network activity, signalling a substantial level of market interest. Solana Market Overview At the time of writing, Solana trades at $159.34 after a 3.84% decline in the past day. Meanwhile, the asset’s daily trading volume is also down by 37.85% and valued at $4.98 billion. However, in line with Pillows’ prediction, Solana holds immense potential for future price appreciation, especially as a potential altseason approaches. The bullish sentiment among SOL investors is also driven by substantial institutional interest in the altcoin among many others. NewsBTC has earlier reported that several asset managers, including Grayscale, VanEck, and Fidelity, have also revised their Solana Spot ETF applications with the SEC, indicating ongoing dialogue between both parties in view of a potential approval.

Bitcoin’s network just got a lot tougher to mine while its price took a hit. According to data from CoinWarz, mining difficulty climbed to a record 127.6 trillion this week. At the same time, Bitcoin fell by 3%, touching an intraday low of $113,005 before edging back to $113,250 by 7:30 pm ET. Mining Difficulty Hits All-Time High Based on analysis, difficulty will drop by roughly 3% on August 9, bringing it down to nearly 124 trillion. That adjustment follows a routine cycle every 2,016 blocks, or about two weeks, where the protocol tweaks how hard it is to mine a block. Difficulty makes sure blocks come out at a pace the system can handle. The challenge is tied to how much computing power, or hashrate, miners pour into the network. When more machines join, difficulty goes up. When some stop hashing, it comes down. In June, the difficulty slid to a low of 117 trillion, but it bounced back in late July and has been climbing since. At the moment, blocks are taking about 10 minutes and 20 seconds each on average, a bit slower than the 10-minute goal. When times drift too far off, the next adjustment nudges difficulty up or down to reel block times back toward 10 minutes. Miners Feel The Squeeze Higher difficulty means miners need more energy and better gear just to break even. With Bitcoin’s price under pressure, some older or less efficient operations could face real losses. Reports have disclosed that only the sharpest setups will likely stay in business if this pairing of high difficulty and low prices lasts. Mining firms track their costs closely. If electricity, hardware and maintenance bills outpace what they earn from block rewards, they may have to switch off rigs. The upcoming 3% ease in difficulty might let a few marginal players stick around a bit longer. Still, margins will be thin until the next major price move. Price Tumbles And Recovers Slightly Based on data, Bitcoin slipped to $113,005—a 3% drop—before finding some buying at lower levels. By early evening, it had rebounded to $113,250. That quick swing highlights how mining and market moves feed off each other. When hopes of easier mining fade, price can wobble. When price dips, miners feel squeezed and may power down, which in turn can lead to easier difficulty again. Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView

Massive liquidation in the crypto landscape has people wondering what the best crypto to buy now is. With Bitcoin (BTC) falling from $117k to $113k, and Ethereum sliding down to $3.4k from $3.7k, the market is currently looking bearish. According to an X post by Maelstrom CEO Arthur Hays, macroeconomic factors such as weak credit expansion across leading economies are slowing down nominal GDP growth and could play a part in dragging BTC and ETH down to the $100k and $3k level. BitcoinPriceMarket CapBTC$2.27T24h7d30d1yAll time Hayes’ remarks echo a wider industry concern that strains from tighter credit, rising tariffs and a cooling labour market could derail crypto’s upward trajectory. Since its peak of $123k on 14 July, the BTC has slid 7.7% while ETH is down 12.5% since breaching the $3.9k barrier on 28 July, as per CoinCecko’s data. A retreat to $100k would represent an 18.7% pullback from BTC’s recent high. On the other hand, many industry analysts have pointed out that the BTC is in many ways past any sort of double-digit pullbacks. Eric Baluchnas, Bloomberg’s ETF analyst, has noted that ever since BlackRock’s spot BTC ETF filing, the crypto king has faced lesser degrees of volatility. The classic falling wedge on the four-hour chart signals that XRP is looking for a breakout. The XRP/USD pair bounced from the wedge’s lower edge around the 200-4H EMA (the blue wave), indicating buyers stepping in. XRP price breaching the upper trendline could initiate a rally of up to 20% and potentially target the $3.60 – $3.65 range, aligning with the 0.236 Fibonacci replacement level near $3.07. Explore: 9+ Best High-Risk, High-Reward Crypto to Buy in August 2025 3 hours ago Crypto Weekly Recap: Who Won And Who Lost? By Arijit Mukherjee As another week comes to a close, the crypto landscape resembles a mix of wins and losses. According to CoinMarketCap’s data, BTC has maintained a dominant position at $114,181 despite modest fluctuations. ETH follows suit, trading at $3,509, and XRP rounding up the big three, trading at $2.88 after a heavy selloff. The overall crypto market cap currently stands at $3.69 trillion. Zooming in on the list of top 100 digital assets, a few altcoins have performed well. The top three altcoin winners this week are FOUR (FORM), leading the pack with a 12.96% uptick, followed by Toncoin (TON) at 11.49% and Story (IP) at 10.00%. Conversely, some altcoins did not fare all that well, with Fartcoin (FARTCOIN) taking the biggest hit at 30.55%, followed by Bonk (BONK) at 28.08% and Virtuals Protocols (VIRTUAl) shedding 23.03%. Explore: 10+ Crypto Tokens That Can Hit 1000x in 2025 The post BTC And ETH Looking Bearish Heading Into August, XRP Sees Huge Selloff: Best Crypto To Buy Now appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

XRP prices are down by over 5% in the last day amid a broader price correction in the general crypto market. The prominent altcoin now trades around $2.81 with no indication of a potential pause in selling momentum. While this crisis persists, popular X analyst with the username Egrag Crypto has helped identify the currently crucial support and resistance levels for the market bulls. Hold $2.65 Or Risk Collapse, Break $3.12 And Set For Rally In an X post on August 2, Egrag Crypto shares an interesting technical insight on the XRP market currently undergoing an intense correction wave. According to the renowned analyst, macro analysis indicates the altcoin retains a bullish structure; however, the present price correction can only be terminated via two pathways. Firstly, micro price analysis suggests that XRP must achieve a daily price close above $3.12 to signal a market bottom entry. In doing so, the cryptocurrency reclaims a pivotal resistance level, paving the way for a potential rise to higher levels such as $3.60. On the other hand, the immediate major support level lies around $2.65. Egrag Crypto explains that a continuous price decline to successfully retest this price floor may ignite a rally, pushing XRP to its current all-time high of $3.84. However, any decisive price break below $2.65 could create a rather dire situation, pointing to potential lows around $2.19. XRP Surge To $17 Remains On The Cards In other news, Egrag Crypto’s analysis also reveals that XRP remains in a macro, long-term cyclical pattern that shows a multi-year bullish cycle, with recurring structural traits. The key elements in this pattern include bullish pennant formation, which suggests a continuation pattern, the 21 EMA (Green dotted line) that historically aligns with significant trend shifts, the Support Arc (Red line), and the Market Cycle Top (blue line). Notably, XRP has since emerged from the bull pennant signaling intentions to maintain its current uptrend. However, the altcoin faces an insurmountable resistance around $3.84, which aligns with an intersection between the mid-cycle top and the 21 EMA line. If XRP can successfully break past this price barrier, investors should anticipate a direct rally to the projected cycle top $17, representing a potential 525% gain on present market prices. At the time of writing, XRP trades at $2.81, reflecting a 5.32% decline in the past day as earlier stated. This recent price fall underscores a turbulent trading period for the altcoin, which lost over 11.38% of its market value in the last week. However, a monthly price gain of 22.18% indicates a significant number of investors remain in profit despite these corrections.

After weeks of consolidation within a tight range, Bitcoin has broken down below the crucial $115K level, reaching a local low around $112,200. This correction has sparked a divide among analysts and investors, with some viewing it as a healthy retracement that could set the stage for a continuation of the broader uptrend. Others, however, warn that this move might signal the beginning of a more extended bearish phase if key support levels fail to hold. Adding to the market’s uncertainty, top analyst Darkfost highlighted a significant shift in exchange activity. Data reveals that Bitcoin inflows to Binance have been steadily rising since early July, reversing a prolonged downtrend that had been in place since March. Given Binance’s position as the largest global crypto exchange by volume, this uptick in inflows is a crucial indicator of shifting investor behavior. Whether this trend signals an upcoming wave of selling or simply reflects portfolio rebalancing remains to be seen. The coming days will be pivotal as Bitcoin tests its lower demand zones and market sentiment reacts to this new data. Binance Bitcoin Inflows Signal Shift in Market Mood Darkfost shared critical data showing that Bitcoin inflows to Binance have steadily increased, rising from approximately 5,300 BTC daily in early July to 7,000 BTC today. While this uptick is not abrupt, it marks a significant reversal of a prolonged downtrend that had persisted since March. This change suggests that investor behavior is shifting, potentially signaling adjustments in market strategies as traders and institutions respond to evolving market dynamics. Binance, as the largest cryptocurrency exchange globally by trading volume, serves as a critical barometer for overall market sentiment. With over 250 million users and billions of dollars in daily transactions, fluctuations in Bitcoin inflows on this platform often mirror broader structural moves within the crypto market. Historically, rising inflows have been associated with increased trading activity, whether due to profit-taking, portfolio rebalancing, or anticipation of market volatility. Some analysts interpret this emerging trend of accelerating inflows as an early sign of preparation for heightened market volatility or impending macroeconomic shifts. It could indicate that traders are positioning funds on exchanges to either capitalize on price swings or hedge against potential downside risks. While the magnitude of inflows isn’t alarmingly high yet, the consistency of this rise demands attention. The market is watching closely to see whether this signals a temporary adjustment or the start of a broader trend. With Bitcoin’s price currently testing lower support zones after breaking below $115K, the behavior of these inflows will be pivotal in determining short-term price action. Key Support At Risk Amid Increased Selling Pressure Bitcoin is trading at $112,477 after breaking down from its two-week consolidation range. The price lost the crucial $115,724 support, which now flips into immediate resistance. This breakdown marks a significant shift in momentum, with BTC testing the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) at $114,944, which failed to hold. The next key support zone lies near the 200-day SMA at $110,348, a level that could become pivotal for bulls attempting to regain control. Volume has surged during this decline, indicating strong selling pressure as BTC approaches the $112,000 level. If the price fails to hold above this zone, a further drop towards the psychological $110K level seems likely, with potential for a deeper correction targeting previous accumulation ranges from early July. Despite the bearish short-term outlook, bulls still have a chance to reclaim momentum if they can swiftly push BTC back above $115,724 and establish a consolidation above the 50-day SMA at $117,631. Until then, market sentiment remains cautious as investors watch for signs of demand absorption or further liquidation-driven declines. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

Ethereum is undergoing a notable correction after an explosive rally that saw its price surge over 85% since late June. After reaching a local high near $3,940, ETH has pulled back approximately 13%, sparking debate among analysts about whether this is a healthy consolidation or a shift in market momentum. While some view the retracement as a natural pause after a rapid uptrend, others caution that selling pressure and macroeconomic uncertainty could trigger deeper downside moves. However, on-chain data from CryptoQuant paints a different picture beneath the surface. Despite the recent price drop, a massive amount of Ethereum has been consistently withdrawn from exchanges over the past few weeks. This trend suggests aggressive accumulation by investors moving their holdings into cold storage, reducing the liquid supply on trading platforms. Such outflows are often interpreted as a bullish signal, indicating that holders are positioning for long-term gains rather than preparing to sell. As Ethereum continues to lead in areas like DeFi, stablecoins, and Real-World Asset (RWA) tokenization, this structural demand could provide a strong foundation for price stability and future rallies. Ethereum Bullish Accumulation Trend Continues Analyst Ali Martinez has revealed that over 1 million Ethereum (ETH) have been withdrawn from exchanges in the past two weeks, signaling a strong accumulation trend among investors. This massive outflow reduces the liquid supply of ETH available for trading, which historically correlates with long-term bullish price action. Despite Ethereum facing a 13% correction from its recent high of $3,940, the consistent withdrawal of coins suggests that investors are positioning for the next leg up. This accumulation trend mirrors the investor behavior seen in Bitcoin over the past year. BTC experienced a similar pattern of exchange outflows throughout 2024, which laid the groundwork for its massive bull cycle. Analysts now believe that Ethereum could follow a comparable trajectory, as the fundamentals supporting ETH remain robust, including its dominance in DeFi, stablecoins, and Real-World Asset (RWA) tokenization. While the market sentiment remains broadly bullish, some risks persist. Recent US job data released on Friday sparked short-term panic, injecting volatility across crypto and traditional markets. However, many analysts view Ethereum’s current correction as a healthy retracement and an opportunity to accumulate ETH at a discount before the market resumes its upward trend. ETH Testing Key Support After Sharp Correction Ethereum (ETH) is currently trading around $3,391 after a sharp correction from its recent high of $3,940. The 12-hour chart reveals that ETH has broken below its short-term support and is now testing the 50-day SMA at $3,462, which could act as a near-term support level. If bulls fail to defend this zone, the next critical support is located around $2,852, a key level that previously acted as strong resistance in late June. Volume spikes during the breakdown suggest increased selling pressure, which aligns with recent profit-taking activities by short-term holders. However, despite this drop, Ethereum’s price structure remains in an overall uptrend, with higher highs and higher lows intact on the broader timeframe. The correction appears to be a retest of previous breakout levels, as ETH had surged over 85% since late June. Maintaining the $3,350-$3,450 range is crucial for bulls to regain control and attempt another move toward the $3,860 resistance zone. Failure to hold could trigger a deeper correction towards the 100-day SMA at $2,972. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

A breach of the $4,000 mark for the Ethereum price has looked almost like a certainty over the past two weeks, with the altcoin hovering around $3,900 in the last few days. However, this almost-certain event took a different turn after the price of ETH suddenly succumbed to severe bearish pressure. On Friday, August 1, the Ethereum price suffered a significant downturn, briefly falling below the $3,500 mark. While this has cast doubts on the likelihood of ETH returning above the psychological $4,000 level and perhaps reaching a new all-time high, recent on-chain indicators suggest that the “king of altcoins” might not be done just yet. ETH MVRV Ratio In 7-Year Downtrend In a Friday post on the X platform, crypto analyst Burak Kesmeci said that the Ethereum price might still have something in the tank despite its struggles going into the weekend. This evaluation is based on the MVRV ratio, which measures the ratio between an asset’s market capitalization and realized capitalization. The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, as the name suggests, is typically used to evaluate whether a cryptocurrency (ETH, in this case) is overvalued or not. According to on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant, an overvalued asset usually has an MVRV ratio greater than 3.7 while a ratio below 1 indicates undervaluation. Kesmeci explained in his post that the ETH MVRV has been in a downtrend since 2018 and may be close to breaking it. However, as shown in the chart, Ether’s MVRV recently suffered rejection at a long-term resistance level — which explains the level of profit-taking seen in the past few days. Nonetheless, Kesmeci still expects Ethereum to still break this seven-year resistance level, considering the institutional interest being enjoyed by ETH at the moment. For instance, as the on-chain analyst duly noted, the US-based spot ETH ETFs have seen a record amount of capital inflows in the past few weeks. As for the altcoin’s movement, Kesmeci expects the Ethereum price to resume its upward trend as long as the MVRV ratio stays above the 365-day simple moving average (white). If this remains the case, a return above $4,000 for the second-largest cryptocurrency might then come sooner rather than later. Ethereum Price At A Glance As of this writing, the price of ETH stands at around $3,523, reflecting a 5% decline in the past 24 hours.

Providing an update on Litecoin’s daily technical setup, Cryptowzrd noted in a recent X post that LTC closed the session indecisively as LTCBTC responded to a spike in Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D). With Bitcoin continuing to dictate overall market direction, the analyst mentioned plans to monitor LTC’s intraday chart for a potential quick scalp opportunity. LTCBTC Shows Early Bullish Signs Despite Caution In his analysis, Cryptowzrd observed that both Litecoin (LTC) and LTCBTC closed the day with indecisive daily candles, reflecting market hesitation. Despite this uncertainty, LTCBTC managed to close slightly in the green, which could be an early sign of shifting momentum. However, the analyst stressed the need for stronger and more consistent daily candles from this level to confirm a sustainable move. A critical resistance level to watch is 0.0010 BTC for LTCBTC. Cryptowzrd highlighted that a clean breakout above this barrier could trigger an impulsive rally, given the pair’s extremely oversold condition. Such a breakout would likely push Litecoin sharply higher, with $140 identified as the major upside target. On the support side, Litecoin’s key daily level sits at $96. Cryptowzrd cautioned that this support could be tested only if Bitcoin experiences a sharp drop towards the $110,000 region, driven by panic selling. In such a case, LTC would likely follow BTC’s lead and retrace to test lower support levels. Cryptowzrd highlighted that his attention will be on lower time frames in the near term, looking for short-term chart patterns to exploit quick trading opportunities. However, broader market sentiment, especially Bitcoin’s price action, will remain the dominant factor influencing Litecoin’s direction. Litecoin Intraday Volatility Limits Clear Setup Formation In his final remarks, Cryptowzrd noted that Litecoin’s intraday chart showed increased volatility throughout the day, making short-term trading conditions less favorable. He emphasized the need for a clearer and more structured chart formation before considering any immediate entries. A key level to watch is the $114.50 intraday resistance. According to Cryptowzrd, a move above this level would be a bullish signal and could invite further buying pressure. Additionally, a breakout above the intraday lower high trendline would likely accelerate upward momentum, potentially setting the stage for a stronger rally. Despite these technical signals, the analyst emphasized that Bitcoin’s price action remains the primary driving force in the market. As such, any decision to enter a trade will depend on the development of a mature and well-defined setup, ideally supported by Bitcoin’s broader trend. For now, patience is key while waiting for the right conditions to align.

The Bitcoin price kicked off the weekend in the worst way possible, falling beneath the $115,000 level for the first time since early July. Considering the supposed significance of this price mark, there have been questions about how much headroom the price of Bitcoin still has. The latest on-chain data suggests that the Bitcoin bull run might not be over just yet. BTC Long-Term Holders Start Distributing In an August 1st post on X, crypto analyst Joao Wedson reported that the Bitcoin cycle for the long-term holders seems to be coming to an end. Wedson emphasized that, regardless of the ongoing excitement around ETFs, on-chain data shows a clear market shift. This shift signals that the cryptocurrency’s long-term holders are beginning to sell their coins, and, in large volumes, too. According to the analyst, about 50% of the amount of Bitcoin held in exchange-traded funds has been sold by the LTHs. Regardless of this situation, however, Wedson expects the BTC bull market to go on for “at least 2 more months” and the altcoins’ bull cycle for three months. Key Metrics Flash Warnings – But ‘Final Top’ Not Yet Seen Wedson backed his claim with four on-chain indicators, starting with the Coin Days Destroyed Terminal Adjusted Metric, which shows aged coins moving after being dormant for a long period of time. The analyst explained that there has been a significant movement of old BTC over the past two years. This, Wedson emphasized, triggered three major warning signs that coincide with a local top. Wedson also referenced the Reserve Risk Indicators to gauge current LTH conviction. This metric, from analysis, has entered a warning zone, as there is increased selling activity and hand exchanges. Next, the online pundit quoted results from the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) Trend Signal. The SOPR measures whether coins (in this case, Bitcoin) are moved at a profit or loss. Wedson pointed out that this indicator recently flashed a bearish signal, which implies increased profit-taking in the market. Referring to it as ‘the most accurate metric in the world’ used to identify Bitcoin’s macro tops, the Bitcoin Cycle Market Top Prediction: Max Intersect SMA Model was put out last. Wedson highlighted that this metric is yet to flash any bearish signal. Using the chart below, the analyst explained that until the blue line reaches the $69,000 level, the final top is yet to arrive. Ultimately, the analyst preached caution against panicking, as historical cycle patterns suggest that the final market top has yet to arrive. As of this writing, Bitcoin is valued at about $113,052, reflecting a 1.2% price decline in the past 24 hours.

15 Reasons Why You Should Buy Gold in 2026 You worked a lifetime for your savings, so you deserve straight talk about gold investing in 2026. Markets swing, pundits argue, and headlines try to sell drama. Set that aside. Gold is not a magic ticket; it is a time tested anchor that earns its place when the future looks fuzzy. If you are wondering whether you missed the move or whether the price already ran, take a breath. The case for owning some gold is not built on hype but on durable, repeatable advantages that show up when you need them most. The Big Picture for Gold in 2026 Policy shifts are frequent, budgets are stretched, and global tensions do not take a holiday. Through it all, a measured gold allocation helps protect purchasing power and smooth portfolio swings. Gold does not depend on a boardroom promise or a government memo. It is a real asset, widely traded, and recognized across borders. Years ago I met a retired couple who kept a small tube of coins strictly for emergencies. They never touched it, and they slept better because it was there. That is the job: steadiness, not spectacle. If you plan to buy gold in 2026, think of it as a stabilizer, not a lottery ticket. Reasons 1 to 4: Enduring Foundations of a Gold Investment 1) Long term store of purchasing power Over decades, a set amount of gold tends to buy roughly the same essentials. It is not about quick gains; it is about resilience. When currencies drift, gold often keeps your baseline intact. 2) Hedge against inflation and policy mistakes Prices rise over time, and occasionally policy decisions accelerate that rise. Gold does not need permission to hold value. It simply exists outside the paper promise system, giving you an anchor when inflation heats up. 3) Diversifier with low correlation When stocks and bonds sink together during stress, you want something that dances to a different beat. Gold often moves independently, providing ballast when other assets cluster in the same direction. That’s the power of low correlation. 4) Cushion against currency swings If the dollar softens, gold priced in dollars can rise. Even with a firm dollar, global buyers view gold as neutral ground. That neutrality matters when currency swings get loud. Reasons 5 to 8: Real World Demand and Real Limits 5) Ongoing central bank interest Monetary authorities across the world continue to hold and add to gold reserves. They are not chasing fads; they are managing risk across decades. Their steady demand supports gold’s role as a strategic asset. 6) Limited new supply Mining is slow, expensive, and highly regulated. New discoveries are rarer, projects take years, and production is not easily dialed up like a factory line. Scarcity is not a trend; it is structural. 7) Durable jewelry and industrial use Beyond investment flows, gold is bought for weddings, cultural festivals, dentistry, and electronics and other industrial uses. This everyday demand forms a base that does not vanish when markets get moody. 8) Liquidity when you need it You can sell a one ounce coin or a ten ounce bar in most cities on a normal day. Try unloading a complex structured product under pressure. With gold, the exit is usually open and the market is deep. Quick story: a shop owner in New Jersey set a simple rule. Every year he took a slice of profit and bought a small bar. No predictions, no speeches. Twenty years later he had a tidy stack and options he would not have had otherwise. That is disciplined common sense, not speculation. Reasons 9 to 12: Risk Control When Things Get Bumpy 9) Buffer during market panics When screens flash red and investors rush toward assets they trust, gold is on the short list. A modest allocation can help steady the portfolio when fear spikes. 10) Reduced counterparty risk Cash in a bank is a claim. A bond is a promise. Gold under your name is a thing. During system hiccups, that difference can matter more than any footnote. 11) Real yield tug of war When interest rates fail to beat inflation, the real yield can slip negative. In those stretches, holding a real asset can feel wiser than collecting shrinking coupons. 12) Geopolitical insurance No one roots for global trouble, but sanctions, strikes, and surprises happen. Gold does not pick sides or depend on a single country’s policy. It is portable confidence when headlines turn rough. Reasons 13 to 15: Practical Advantages for Everyday Investors 13) Flexible ways to own it Gold fits a range of budgets and preferences. Choose what serves your plan and paperwork comfort level. Coins and bars you can verify, store, and insure. Allocated storage where specific serial numbered bars are held under your name. Retirement accounts that allow approved precious metals, with clear custodianship rules. 14) Simple to understand A one ounce coin is one ounce. No quarterly earnings call. No footnotes as thick as a phone book. For retirees who value clarity, that simplicity is a feature, not a flaw. 15) A disciplined rebalancing tool If gold rises while equities surge, trim and redeploy. If it dips while other assets climb, add modestly. You are not trying to crown a king; you are building a balanced team that performs across cycles. How to Buy Gold in 2026 Without the Drama Define the job first Write down what you want gold to do: hedge inflation, diversify, reduce downside risk, or all of the above. Tie the role to a target percentage so you can measure success without guessing. Choose the vehicle Select the path that matches your time horizon and comfort with custody: Physical coins and bars for direct ownership and full control. Allocated, audited storage for convenience with specific bar ownership. Eligible retirement accounts holding approved coins and bars under a qualified custodian. Mind the details that move the needle Verify authenticity and understand premiums over spot before you buy. Document serial numbers for bars, and keep receipts in a secure place. Review storage and insurance terms annually to prevent unpleasant surprises. Know the basic tax treatment where you live and keep clean records for your preparer. Use process, not feelings Timing does not require perfection. Consider a staged approach across several months. Rebalance back to your target at set intervals. A retired firefighter once told me he never felt forced to sell because he had a plan on paper. That is how grown ups do this: rules first, emotions second. Bonus Perspective: Clearing Up Three Common Myths Myth 1: Gold only works in crises Not true. Gold can grind higher in calm periods if real yields are low and demand is steady. It is not just a panic button; it is a portfolio component. Myth 2: Gold is dead money That is lazy thinking. Gold earns its place by reducing overall portfolio volatility. Smoother rides can improve long term results even if one piece does not always outperform. Myth 3: You must choose gold or everything else False choice. You can own productive assets and a slice of real metal. The point is balance, not purity tests. Smart Safety: Storage, Verification, and Scams to Avoid Keep storage boring and secure Whether you use a safe at home, a bank box, or insured vault storage, consistency matters. Limit who knows what you own and where it lives. Review access procedures with family or your executor. Buy from reputable sources Stick to reputable sources and custodians with transparent pricing, track records, and clear buyback policies. Verify mint marks and use simple tests to confirm authenticity. If a deal seems too good to be true, it usually is. Document everything Serial numbers, invoices, storage agreements, and photos of holdings help you sleep at night and make estate administration easier. Organized paperwork is part of the investment. Conclusion: A Steady Hand for an Unsteady Year There is plenty to celebrate and plenty to question in 2026. That is normal. The decision to buy gold in 2026 does not hinge on predicting the next headline. It rests on a simple truth: gold has a durable record of protecting purchasing power, softening portfolio shocks, and giving you choices when emotions run hot. Define the job you want gold to do, size it sensibly, and stick to your rules. You worked hard for your savings; you deserve a calm plan that helps you keep them. A measured role for gold is how you get there, without hype and without regret. The post 15 Reasons Why You Should Buy Gold in 2026 first appeared on American Bullion.

The altseason fanfare remains on the rise despite a broad altcoin rally two weeks ago that has quickly evaporated in a wider market correction. As investors continue to await a potential rebound from these price dips, a popular analyst with X user PlanD has highlighted the two crucial signals that may initiate an altcoin market surge. Ethereum And USDT Market Key To Altseason Future In an X post on August 1, PlanD shared an in-depth technical analysis of multiple markets, including Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D), and USDT Dominance. In studying the ETH market, PlanD highlights that the prominent altcoin faces major resistance at the $4,000, which has acted as the upper resistance level of a three-year symmetrical triangle. According to the presented analysis, Ethereum’s ability to effectively hold above the $4,000 price barrier is the first important developing situation for the altseason. Being the largest altcoin with a market cap of $424.48 billion, a successful breakout beyond this familiar price ceiling would encourage a rally by lower-cap alts to potentially initiate an altseason. Meanwhile, PlanD also draws attention to the USDT Dominance chart, which has just registered the breakout of a bearish flag. While there is potential to retest the breakout point at 4.71%, the analyst tells investors to monitor a potential fall to 3.81% which aligns with the breakout of a 1.5-year descending triangle and 3.21% i.e., the price target of the bearish flag. In particular, PlanD states a fall in USDT Dominance to 3.21% which suggests significant rotation of capital to other volatile assets is the “strongest signal” for an altcoin rally. Related Reading: If Dogecoin Loses This Level, Expect A Major Crash: Analyst Warns BTC.D Potential Rise Possesses Risk To Altcoin Market In analyzing the Bitcoin Dominance chart, PlanD notes this metric has twice successfully retested a key support at a three-year rising wedge at 60.30%; therefore, there is intense potential for a rebound. The top analyst notes that if BTC.D rises to retest the pivotal market levels at 64.60% and 64.80%, the altcoin market may see a general price loss ranging from 10%-20%. Meanwhile, PlanD is also backing Bitcoin to maintain its bullish form in the coming weeks with a projected price target of $160,000. Interestingly, the trading expert notes that there are two paths to this price, noting that Bitcoin may first find support at the $113,000, propelling a rebound beyond $118,700 and an eventual surge to $160,000. Alternatively, Bitcoin’s present correction may halt around $108,000 before rising towards the specified bull target. In this case, altcoins may also witness an initial 10-20% widespread price decline.

Chilean copper giant Codelco has confirmed the discovery of a second body at its El Teniente mine, where five workers have been trapped since a collapse triggered by a powerful tremor on Thursday. The company announced Saturday that the victim’s identity has not yet been confirmed by authorities. One miner was previously reported dead at the time of the accident, which occurred in the Andesita section of the mine, about 75 kilometres southeast of Santiago. “This discovery fills us with sadness, but it also tells us that we are in the right place, that the strategy we followed led us to them,” general manager of El Teniente, Andres Music, said in a statement. He added that the search will continue “with strength and hope,” though the pace will slow as crews proceed with greater caution. Rescue operations have faced delays due to ongoing aftershocks. As of Saturday, Codelco had cleared just over 20 per cent of the blocked underground tunnels but had not yet made contact with the remaining trapped miners. The mine accident occurred around 5:30 p.m. local time on Thursday, following a magnitude 4.2 earthquake—one of the strongest ever recorded at El Teniente. Minister Aurora Williams announced on Friday afternoon the government was suspending all activities at the mine. Codelco is investigating whether the deadly incident was caused solely by seismic activity or if mining operations played a role. El Teniente, in operation since 1905, produced 356,000 metric tonnes of copper in 2024. The massive complex stretches over 4,500 km of tunnels and underground galleries in the Andes Mountains, about 75 km southeast of Chile’s capital, Santiago.

Five long-dormant Bitcoin wallets sprang back to life on July 31, moving a total of 250 BTC—nearly $30 million at today’s rates. That’s money mined on April 26, 2010, during Bitcoin’s earliest tests. Traders saw the shift and paused, wondering if a massive sell-off was coming after more than 15 years of silence. Early Coins Stir According to on-chain observers, these coins came from wallets active before the famous “Patoshi pattern” ended. That pattern, often linked to Bitcoin’s creator, slowed down around May 2010. Moving coins from that era can send a jolt through the market, even when the total is small. Around 250 BTC made a splash in today’s headlines. Yet Bitcoin’s circulating supply tops 19 million coins. So far, none of the funds have shown up on public exchanges. That means any real impact on prices may be low—unless the coins suddenly head for the exit in bulk. Traders and analysts have begun tracking the addresses that received the BTC. If those wallets start funneling coins into exchanges or over-the-counter desks, panic could spread. But wallet shuffles without selling are common among early miners who just want to consolidate or upgrade their security. Clues Point Away From Satoshi Based on reports from Whale Alert, these movements don’t match the nonce patterns tied to the roughly 1.12 million BTC once mined by “Satoshi Nakamoto” across blocks up to number 54,316. Experts note the mining speed and nonce range differ from what’s been linked to Bitcoin’s creator. That makes it far more likely these funds belong to other early adopters. Tightening Crypto Rules Meanwhile, reports have disclosed that Japan’s Financial Services Agency (FSA) has moved oversight of crypto-asset exchanges into a more powerful unit. The aim is to tighten rules, improve capital checks, and guard against money-laundering. This change brings crypto platforms under the same kind of scrutiny as banks and brokerages. Moving coins from 2010 always raises eyebrows. Yet 250 BTC is a drop in Bitcoin’s ocean. And with clues pointing away from Satoshi, the market may shrug this off unless the funds hit exchanges fast. Japan’s new rules show that regulators aren’t standing still—they’re making sure crypto firms meet tougher standards going forward. Featured image from Meta, chart from TradingView

The Bitcoin price surge above $120,000 has reignited speculation about where the flagship cryptocurrency stands in the current cycle. While price action alone offers only part of the picture, on-chain data from the Satoshimeter indicator suggests that Bitcoin is still firmly in the mid-phase of its cycle, pointing to significant potential ahead in its long-term trajectory. Bitcoin Price Still In Mid-Cycle Stage Bitcoin’s climb from $100,000 to a new ATH above $123,000 has brought fresh attention to on-chain metrics used to identify the cryptocurrency’s current stage in the present market cycle. Among them, the Satoshimeter, an indicator developed by crypto analyst Stockmoney Lizard, offers a nuanced look into Bitcoin’s movements and price position. According to the expert’s analysis released on X social media, the Satoshimeter signaled that Bitcoin is still far from the euphoric peak zones observed in previous bull markets. Stockmoney Lizard also claimed that Bitcoin’s rally is in its mid-cycle or intermediate phase rather than the final leg of the bull cycle. Supporting this analysis, the Satoshimeter employs on-chain metrics to map out Bitcoin’s cyclical behavior, identifying both long-term bottoms and tops. Historically, this indicator’s readings around 1.6 have typically marked major bear market bottoms, as seen in the price chart in the years 2011, 2015, 2019, and 2022. Higher values, on the other hand, previously aligned with cycle peaks and often signaled sharp corrections. As of now, the Satoshimeter is still well below the upper extremes, signaling that the Bitcoin price is not yet in the overheated zone. The analyst’s chart illustrates this trend clearly. Each past market top is marked by a steep spike in the indicator, aligning with parabolic price action and extreme sentiment. In contrast, current indicator readings are elevated but stable, sitting in the mid-range, well below levels seen at past cycle tops. This suggests that Bitcoin’s broader bullish structure remains intact, with potential for further upside on the table. Bitcoin To Reach $200,000 This Cycle? Based on the Satoshimeter’s current level, Stockmoney Lizards projects an extended run in the Bitcoin price. While the recent jump above $123,000 reflects growing momentum, the analyst anticipates a stair-step progression toward a potential high of $200,000 before a significant market correction sets in. This projection is based not only on the readings from the Satoshimeter indicator but also on the movements seen in prior cycles, where BTC typically moved through multiple phases of accumulation, breakout, and parabolic growth. As of writing, the flagship cryptocurrency is trading at $113,759, reflecting an 8.3% decline from its all-time high. With $200,000 set as its next peak target, this implies a potential rally of more than 75% in the current cycle. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Highlights include US ISM Services PMI, BoE, BoJ SOO, Canada & NZ Jobs, China Trade and OPEC+ Newsquawk Week Ahead Highlights: 4th-8th August 2025 SUN: OPEC+ meeting MON: US Employment Trends (Jun), US Durable Goods R (Jun) TUE: Chinese Final Caixin Services and Composite PMI (Jul), EZ/UK/US S&P Global Final Services and Composite PMIs (Jul), Canadian Trade Balance (Jun), US ISM Services PMI (Jul), New Zealand Jobs (Q2) WED: RBI Announcement, German Industrial Orders (Jun), EZ Construction PMIs (Jul), EZ Retail Sales (Jun) THU: BoE Announcement and MPR, CNB Announcement, Banxico Announcement, New Zealand Inflation Forecasts (Q3), German Trade Balance (Jun), Swedish CPIF (Jul), Chinese Trade Balance (Jul) FRI: Canadian Jobs Report (Jul), BoJ SOO OPEC+ MEETING (SUN): The eight OPEC+ members participating in voluntary output increases will meet on August 3rd while crude markets are closed, with Reuters sources indicating a likely agreement for a further 548k BPD hike or lower in September, vs the 548k BPD hike for August. The group, having accelerated the unwinding of the prior 2.2mln BPD cut since April, is on track to fully restore those barrels by September, with the UAE set to achieve its 300k BPD quota boost ahead of schedule, according to Reuters. The JMMC, which held its non-decision-making but market-analysing confab on July 28th, reiterated the need for full compliance and requested updated compensation plans from lagging producers by August 18th. The focus of this meeting will be on the size of any barrels returned to market alongside commentary on membersʼ compliance. ISM SERVICES PMI (TUE): In its flash PMI data for July, S&P Global reported US services PMI business activity rose to 55.2 in July (vs June’s 52.9), a seven-month high, fuelled by rising domestic demand. S&P said Julyʼs expansion of the US economy was powered by services, where business activity rose at a rate not seen since last December. S&P raised some questions about whether this can continued; it wrote “whether this growth can be sustained is by no means assured,” noting that it was “worryingly uneven” and “overly reliant” on the services economy as manufacturing business conditions deteriorated for the first time this year, amid the fading boost from tariff front-running. It also noted that the rate of inflation for prices charged for both goods and services was among the largest seen over the past three years; “the rise in selling prices for goods and services in July, which was one of the largest seen over the past three years, suggests that CPI will rise further above the Fed’s 2% target in the coming months,” it warned. NEW ZEALAND JOBS (TUE): New Zealand Q2 Employment Change is expected at -0.2% Q/Q (prev. +0.1%), Unemployment Rate is expected at 5.3% (prev. 5.1%), Labour Cost Index is expected at 0.6% Q/Q (prev. 0.4%) and 2.2% Y/Y (prev. 2.5%). Participation rate is expected at 70.7% (prev. 70.8%). Analysts at Westpac expect continued job losses, concentrated among younger workers, though some labour force exits are set to temper the headline jobless rise. Westpac said the Labour Cost Index is expected to signal ongoing but moderating wage pressure. The desk also flags that its employment and wage growth outlooks remain softer than the RBNZʼs May forecasts. RBI ANNOUNCEMENT (WED): RBI is expected to maintain rates when it concludes its 3-day policy meeting next week, as a recent Reuters poll showed 44 of 57 economists surveyed forecast the RBI to keep the Repurchase Rate at 5.50% and the remaining 13 anticipate a 25bps cut. As a reminder, the RBI opted for an oversized cut to lower the Repo Rate by 50bps to 5.50% (exp. 25bps cut) at the last meeting in June, which was the third consecutive rate cut this year, but changed its stance to neutral from accommodative. It also cut the Standing Deposit Facility Rate and Marginal Standing Facility Rate by 50bps each to 5.25% and 5.75%, respectively. RBI Governor Malhotra said during the policy address that growth remains lower than aspirations, and it is important to stimulate growth, as well as noted that front-loading rate cuts to support growth were felt necessary. Malhotra also stated that inflation has softened significantly over the last six months and inflation is likely to undershoot the full-year target at the margin, while he noted that monetary policy has limited space left to support growth, and they retained the FY26 Real GDP growth forecast at 6.5%. Furthermore, the RBI Governor announced that the Bank is to lower the Cash Reserve Ratio by 100bps in four equal tranches, which will release INR 2.5tln, as well as noted that they will continue to monitor and take measures as necessary and that the CRR cut is to reduce the cost of funding of banks and help accelerate policy transmission. The shift to a neutral stance at the last meeting would suggest a likely pause by the central and the recent rhetoric from the RBI doesnʼt suggest much urgency to continue cutting rates with RBI Governor Malhotra noting that they don’t let their eyes off inflation and the primary objective is to maintain price stability, while he added they have won the battle against inflation and that the war continues but noted momentum and price of inflation need to be looked at. In addition, the central bank has recently been seen to be likely intervening in the FX market to limit the rupee’s depreciation, which is another factor that could potentially influence it to avoid another immediate rate cut. However, sources cited by Indian press NDTV Profit noted the RBI is likely to announce a revised liquidity management framework which aims to anchor short-term liquidity more effectively and provide banks greater predictability on overnight rates, as well as utilise the 7-day variable rate repo as the main liquidity tool and establish a Secured Overnight Reference Rate, following recent discussion with market participants and banks. Try Newsquawk free for 7 days BOE ANNOUNCEMENT AND MPR (THU): Analysts are virtually unanimous in expecting the BoE to lower the Base Rate by 25bps to 4.0% with markets assigning an 83% probability of such an outcome. The move would follow the MPCʼs preference for cutting at a quarterly pace and alongside MPR meetings. As a reminder, the prior meeting saw policymakers stand pat on rates with dovish dissent from Dhingra, Taylor and Ramsden, who backed a 25bps reduction. At the time of writing, there is no published consensus for the vote split; however, Morgan Stanley touts the possibility of a 1:7:1 vote with Mann to vote for a hold and Dhingra to back a 50bps reduction. MS sees three camps on the MPC with “gradual and careful” cutters, who see two-sided risks to inflation (Bailey, Lombardelli, Breeden); “cautious” cutters who might warn that further convincing evidence of labour market slack translating to price disinflation is needed before removing restrictiveness further (Pill and, on balance, Greene), and Taylor and Ramsden who will describe inflation risks as skewed to the downside. Data since the prior meeting has underscored the stubborn nature of inflation in the UK, with Y/Y CPI in June advancing to 3.6% from 3.4%, and services holding steady at 4.7%. However, the MPC also needs to balance this against the slowdown in growth and perceived loosening in the labour market. For now, the softening in the UK economy is not enough to see policymakers accelerate their current pace of loosening and as such, the statement is expected to retain guidance that rate cuts will be “gradual and careful”. Looking beyond the upcoming meeting, markets see 46bps of loosening by year-end. For the accompanying MPR, MS expects “the peak in near-term inflation to be shifted up to just under 4%, largely on food prices” and for medium-term inflation and growth forecasts to be subject to little change. Note, the MPC may also opt to provide some guidance on what to expect for the September vote on the pace of Gilt sales. Oxford Economics ultimately expects the 2026 remit to be lowered to GBP 75-80bln from the current pace of GBP 100bln per annum. BANXICO ANNOUNCEMENT (THU): Following four straight 50bps rate cuts, analysts think that Mexico’s central bank will ease the cadence of its rate cuts, reverting to 25bps moves. The latest Reuters poll saw 27/28 analysts expect a 25bps rate cut, with just one expecting rates to be left on hold. Data showed the mid-month CPI rose +0.2% unadjusted in H1 of July (vs H2 of June), in line with the consensus; CPI fell to 3.6% Y/Y in July (vs 4.1% Y/Y in June), also in line with expectations. Pantheon Macroeconomics said the data supports a 25bps rate cut at Banxicoʼs August 7th meeting, taking its rate to 7.75%. “The core component will prevent bolder action, for now,” Pantheon writes, and in addition, “ongoing trade tensions could weigh on the MXN again if left unresolved.” NEW ZEALAND INFLATION FORECASTS (THU): The RBNZʼs Q3 Survey of Expectations is expected to show two-year inflation forecasts edging higher from 2.29%, extending the recent upward drift across all time horizons. Westpac notes inflation expectations are a key focus for the RBNZ ahead of its August policy meeting; while the central bank retains an easing bias, the recent Y/Y inflation uptick (albeit under market expectations) complicates the outlook for rate cuts, according to the bank. Analysts at Westpac highlight that inflation expectations have been pushing higher in recent months across all horizons, and “expect that trend will continue in the September quarter survey. Even so, longer-term expectations are likely to remain close to 2%.” Furthermore, New Zealand was also slapped with a 15% US tariff, up from the 10% announced on April 2nd. SWEDISH CPIF (THU): There is currently no consensus for the Swedish inflation metrics for July, though SEB has provided their own expectations. The bank sees Y/Y core inflation unchanged from the prior at 3.3%, and predicts headline CPIF will rise to 3.2% (prev. 2.8% Y/Y). Analysts pin the uptick in the headline figure on higher electricity prices. By way of comparison, the Riksbank forecasts CPIF Y/Y cooling to 2.5% and Core CPIF moderating to 2.8% Y/Y. As a reminder, the last inflation report saw both headline and core figures come in below consensus and, more pertinently, the Y/Y core figure (2.5%) printed below the Bankʼs forecast (2.7%). This gave policymakers enough room to deliver a 25bps rate cut, and guide to another cut later in the year – though, Governor Thedeen said it is not a promise of further cuts but rather a “best estimate”. Looking ahead to the next meeting on 20th August, money markets price in a 13% chance of a 25bps cut; SEB looks for a move in September. CHINESE TRADE BALANCE (THU): There are currently no expectations for the Chinese trade balance. Analysts at ING expect export growth to moderate to +4.6% Y/Y (prev. +8.3%), with imports seen slipping -1.9% Y/Y (prev. +2.3%). ING notes momentum is set to soften after resilient H1 trade, with weaker global demand and persistent price pressures weighing on exports, while import contraction highlights subdued domestic activity. The data also comes amid the US-China trade truce, which is set to expire on August 12th, whilst at the time of writing, there has been no news of an extension being green-lighted by US President Trump. Furthermore, traders are also on the lookout for the US penalty on countries importing Russian crude. CANADIAN JOBS REPORT (FRI): With the BoC on hold, the central bank is waiting to see if an economic slowdown materializes enough for the bank to resume rate cuts. In the latest MPR, the BoC characterises the labour market as soft, highlighting the 6.9% unemployment rate seen in June. It noted that the weakness in industries that are sensitive to trade is the main reason for the softening in the labour market; however, employment continued to grow in industries that are less sensitive to trade. The Bank’s Surveys indicate that hiring intentions remain subdued. Macklem did keep the door open to rate cuts in his statement, “If a weakening economy puts further downward pressure on inflation and the upward price pressures from the trade disruptions are contained, there may be a need for a reduction in the policy interest rate.” The MPR also highlighted that with unemployment already elevated, with householders uncertain about their economic future, spending on housing and other major purchases could be meaningfully softer. It added that this could be amplified by recent weakness in some regional housing markets, and greater excess supply in the Canadian economy would create more downward pressure on inflation. A continued increase in the unemployment rate would be noteworthy and likely add to the downbeat outlook, and could build rate cut expectations ahead. Money markets only price in 15 bps of easing by year-end, but analyst ING expects the BoC to cut at least once this year, potentially twice. BOJ SOO (FRI): BoJ provided no surprises as it kept its short-term rate unchanged at 0.50%, as expected, with the decision made unanimously, while it reiterated it will conduct monetary policy as appropriate from the perspective of sustainably and stably achieving the 2% inflation target and will continue to raise the policy rate if the economy and prices move in line with the forecast, in accordance with improvements in the economy and prices. BoJ stated that underlying inflation is likely to stall due to slowing growth but gradually accelerate thereafter, and underlying consumer inflation is likely to be at a level generally consistent with the 2% target in the second half of the projection period from fiscal 2025 through 2027. Furthermore, the central bank acknowledged that real interest rates are at extremely low levels and that there is high uncertainty surrounding trade policy developments and their impact on the economy, as well as stated that a prolonged period of high uncertainties regarding trade policies could lead firms to focus more on cost cutting and as a result, moves to reflect price rises in wages could also weaken. In terms of the latest Outlook Report, board members’ median forecasts for Core CPI were raised through to 2027, while the median forecast for Real GDP was upgraded for FY25 but maintained for the following two years. The initial decision lacked any major fireworks, although theJapanese currency was eventually pressured in the aftermath of the press conference where BoJ Governor Ueda continued to signal a lack of urgency to hike rates as he noted there was no large change to the central outlook that the growth pace will slow down and underlying inflation stalls, while participants will get to scrutinise further commentary from the meeting with the Summary of Opinions due out next Friday. Copyright © {{ copyright-year }} Newsquawk Voice Limited. All rights reserved. Registered Office One Love Lane, London, EC2V 7JN, United Kingdom · Registered Number 12020774 · Registered in England and Wales. newsquawk.com · +44 20 3582 2778 · info@newsquawk.com Join The GTA – Global Traders Association – Click HERE The post Newsquawk Week Ahead Highlights: 4th-8th August 2025 appeared first on Forex Trading Forum.

Ethena (ENA) prices are presently in the red zone during a broader crypto market correction. According to data from CoinMarketCap, the DeFi token recorded a significant 2.00% loss in the past day, with prices presently set hovering around $0.55. Amidst this price decline, top market analyst Ali Martinez has identified the major support regions that investors should monitor in the event of any further price retracement. Ethena CBD Shows Key Price Floors At $0.47, $0.44, And $0.35 According to Martinez, the cost basis distribution (CBD) model has revealed the three short-term relevant support zones in the ENA market. For context, the CBD model is an on-chain framework that visualizes the amount of tokens accumulated at various price levels. It is used to identify important price zones, i.e., potential support or resistance levels, based on their registered volumes of accumulation. In the chart above, it is observed that the more intense (warmer) the color, the higher the greater supply concentration of ENA at that level. Based on this system, it can be inferred that the immediate support levels for ENA currently lie around $0.44 and $0.47, where significant price clusters have been formed in the last month. However, if a compelling selling pressure forces the ENA price below this support zone, investors should anticipate the next price halt around $0.35. This price region is presently the strongest support in the Ethena market, as shown by the deepest red horizontal bar on the CBD model, which represents an estimated $1 billion ENA supply cluster. Notably, a price crash to the $0.35 support zone indicates a potential estimated 37.5% loss from current prices. Meanwhile, the CBD model also reveals that ENA’s next price resistance sits around the $0.60, at which lies the next immediate cluster above the spot price. Ethena Price Outlook At the time of writing, ENA trades at $0.57, reflecting a 2.08% decline in the last 24 hours as earlier stated. Meanwhile, the token’s daily trading volume is up by 2.05% indicating a slight rise in market engagement and transaction volume. According to CoinCodex, investor sentiment remains strongly bullish, with 67% of the past month’s trading days closing in the green. Additionally, the Fear & Greed Index sits at 65, reflecting a relatively strong appetite for risk among investors. However, Coincodex analysts hold a cautious market view with predictions of $0.46 and $0.45 in the next five and 30 days, respectively. Meanwhile, their long-term forecast project ENA to also trade around $0.46 in the next three months.

Reports have disclosed that XRP community commentator Versan Aljarrah says XRP could gain a link to gold without actually holding bullion. According to Aljarrah, XRP would simply move gold-backed stablecoins across the XRP Ledger. The commentator argues that this role would give XRP a “synthetic connection” to tokenized assets like gold and oil, even though XRP itself would not carry any gold reserves. How XRP Bridges Gold Token According to Aljarrah, XRP only needs to power the on-chain movement of gold-pegged coins. Based on reports, each gold token on the XRPL would represent one gram of real gold. Custodians such as MKS Pamp and Imperial Vaults would hold the physical bars. XRP would then step in to provide liquidity and settle trades on the ledger’s built-in exchange. Aljarrah sees this setup as a way for the altcoin to stay useful in global finance. Meld Gold Leads The Charge Meld Gold is the only issuer currently close to launching a gold token on the XRPL. Reports have disclosed that Meld plans to back each token with one gram of physical gold. The firm says it will work with major vault operators. So far, no other gold token projects, including PAX Gold (PAXG), have moved onto XRP’s network. Supporters hope that more issuers will follow once Meld proves the concept. Technical And Regulatory Hurdles Reports note that issuing gold tokens is more than writing code. Each issuer must tie its token to audits, legal contracts and insured vaults. On top of that, XRP’s fixed supply and decentralized consensus system make direct asset backing tricky. Matt Hamilton, a former Ripple developer, has said the crypto asset can’t be backed by gold in a traditional way. Analysts add that its price moves with adoption, legal clarity and market mood, not by hype. Institutional Moves Remain Unseen Meanwhile, Aljarrah says big names like JPMorgan, BlackRock, the Bank for International Settlements and the IMF have made private plans to use XRP as a bridge. Yet no public evidence supports that claim. Most large asset managers have focused on blockchains with clear rules. Until the Ripple-SEC lawsuit ends, top institutions are likely to hold back. That case could decide if XRP is treated like a security, and that will affect any tokenized assets on the XRPL. According to analysis, a bridge role alone won’t peg XRP’s price to the spot gold rate of $2,950 that some in the community mention. Instead, if gold-pegged tokens take off, the altcoin could see more trading volume and tighter spreads. That might nudge its price upward, but it would still trade on its own merits as a liquidity tool for cross-border payments. Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView

The long-standing debate over XRP’s price ceiling is still a strong discussion. In a recent post on social media platform X, fintech analyst Armando Pantoja argued that the notion of market capitalization limiting XRP’s rise to $1,000 is fundamentally flawed. His comment came alongside a short video clip in which he draws comparisons between crypto and early-stage technology companies like Microsoft. Why Market Cap Doesn’t Cap Technology In his video, Pantoja dismissed the idea among many investors that XRP’s market cap should be used as a rigid barrier against long-term price appreciation to the $1,000 price level. He noted that while technical analysis may be useful in the short term, it becomes less relevant when evaluating a token’s potential over an extended period. To drive his point home, he invoked a hypothetical scenario from the early 1990s, asking viewers to imagine those who doubted Microsoft’s growth because of its market cap. That kind of logic, he suggested, would have missed the wave of mass adoption driven by Microsoft. Pantoja insisted that applying stock market valuation metrics to crypto leads to misunderstandings, especially since tokens like XRP are more akin to technologies than companies. “Always the market cap is too high. What does that matter? It’s the technology that’s going to be adopted regardless,” he said. This means that XRP is expected to follow a different trajectory, one based more on network usage, utility, and long-term integration into global systems. This, in turn, would see increased demand for XRP and cause its price to barrel to $1,000. Community Reactions: XRP Battling With Momentum It is easy to point to the mathematical implications of XRP reaching $1,000, a valuation that would place its market cap in the tens of trillions. However, supporters like Pantoja counter that such thinking is based on outdated comparisons. As such, it is not surprising that Pantoja’s post has resonated well within the XRP community, especially among those who believe the token has far more room to grow than mainstream narratives allow. Nonetheless, the post also attracted some dissenters from those who believe that the price projection may be too high. Rather than focusing on circulating supply or market cap figures, Pantoja argued that long-term XRP valuation will hinge on the real-world adoption of its underlying technology. XRP, through its cross-border use cases, will undoubtedly gain much traction among banks and institutions, especially once the SEC-Ripple lawsuit is finally over. Interestingly, the $1,000 price target is more of a general consensus among a few other crypto analysts. BarriC, a crypto commentator, also posted on the social media platform X that there is a clear path for XRP to first move through $4, then $10 to $20, surpass $100, and finally reach $1,000. He frames it as a multi-stage trajectory based on institutional adoption and XRP’s infrastructure role in cross‑border payments. Dom Kwok, a former Goldman Sachs analyst and co‑founder of EasyA, projected long‑term targets stretching as high as $1,000 by 2030, also contingent on mass adoption. Anders, another XRP proponent, also floated $1,000 as a possible long‑term ceiling in comparison to Bitcoin’s potential of hitting the $1million target.

Bitcoin has broken below the critical $115K support level, reaching a new local low of approximately $112,700. After spending over two weeks consolidating in a tight range, BTC has now exited this phase with bearish momentum, raising concerns across the market. Traders and analysts are closely watching to see if Bitcoin can find strong demand around current levels to stabilize the price and prevent a deeper correction. Key data from CryptoQuant reveals that Short-Term Holders (STHs) are selling their Bitcoin at a loss, a typical pattern observed during retail capitulation events. Over the past 24 hours, a significant volume of BTC has been sent to exchanges at negative profit margins, signaling that weaker hands are being shaken out of the market. This selling pressure often marks the final stages of a correction phase, where panic-driven exits by STHs create potential accumulation opportunities for long-term investors. The next few sessions will be crucial, as Bitcoin needs to reclaim the $115K level to regain bullish structure. Otherwise, bears may attempt to drive prices lower, targeting the $110K zone. The market now looks for institutional demand or fresh capital inflows to absorb the ongoing retail-driven sell-off and stabilize the price. Short-Term Holders Sell Bitcoin At A Loss According to top analyst Maartunn, over the past 24 hours, 21,400 BTC were sent to exchanges at a loss by Short-Term Holders (STHs). This behavior is typical during Bitcoin drawdowns, where retail investors, driven by fear and emotional reactions to price swings, tend to sell their holdings at a loss. These capitulation events often amplify volatility, as panic selling creates sharp, short-term supply spikes on exchanges. However, despite this surge in loss-driven selling, on-chain data reveals a contrasting narrative among institutional players. The supply of Bitcoin in Over-The-Counter (OTC) desks continues to shrink, suggesting that large investors are actively buying during this correction. This divergence between retail capitulation and institutional accumulation points to a healthy market reset, where weaker hands exit while stronger hands build positions. Bitcoin’s momentum is now shifting from bullish caution to bearish fear. The recent breakdown below $115K raises the probability of further downside, with analysts eyeing the $112K level as a key support area. This level holds historical significance as the previous all-time high (ATH) set in May. If BTC finds strong demand at this zone, it could establish a solid foundation for the next bullish leg. BTC Price Analysis: Breakdown Below Key Support Levels Bitcoin (BTC) has broken down from its multi-week consolidation range, currently trading at $113,737 after losing the critical $115,724 support level. The chart shows a clear rejection at the $122,077 resistance zone, where multiple attempts to break higher failed over the past two weeks. This rejection led to an increase in bearish momentum, pushing the price below the 50 and 100-period SMAs, which are now acting as resistance at $117,853 and $114,838, respectively. BTC is now hovering just above the 200-period SMA at $110,308, which could act as a last line of defense for bulls. If this level holds, a potential bounce back to retest the $115K region might occur. However, if the price fails to find strong demand soon, the next downside target sits around $112K, which aligns with the previous all-time high from May. Volume spikes accompanying this breakdown indicate significant selling pressure, likely driven by short-term holders capitulating at a loss. Despite the bearish technical structure in the short term, broader market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, as institutional accumulation continues in the background. The coming sessions will be critical to determine whether BTC can reclaim $115K or if further downside toward $110K becomes inevitable. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

In a powerful show of investor confidence, spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) broke all records in July with $5.43 billion in net inflows. It marks the highest monthly inflow since their market debut and reflects a sharp 369% rise from June’s inflow of $1.16 billion. With 20 straight days of net inflows, spot ETH ETFs are now cementing Ethereum’s growing role as a leading digital asset in the eyes of traditional market participants. Spot Ethereum ETFs Hit Milestone With $5.43 Billion Inflow According to data from SoSoValue, the $5.43 billion net inflow in July also dwarfed May’s $564 million and April’s $66.25 million. It completely reversed the negative outflow trend seen in March, which saw a $403 million drop. As a result of this rise, cumulative net inflows across all spot Ether ETFs have now reached $9.64 billion, showing a 129% increase compared to June’s cumulative total. The massive growth didn’t stop at inflows alone. Total net assets across all spot ETH ETFs jumped to $21.52 billion, doubling from $10.32 billion just a month earlier. These funds now account for 4.77% of Ethereum’s entire market capitalization, showing that ETFs are becoming a gateway for capital entering the ETH market. Institutional interest has played a role in this growth as BlackRock’s ETHA remains the leading spot Ethereum ETF by assets, pulling in $18.18 million on July 31 and now holding $11.37 billion. Fidelity’s FETH also gained $5.62 million that same day, raising its net assets to $2.55 billion. Grayscale’s ETHE still manages a solid $4.22 billion asset base, even with a $6.8 million outflow, showing its continued relevance. Ethereum Price Rallies As ETF Inflows Hit New Highs The record-setting ETF inflows also lined up with a sharp price rally in ETH throughout July. ETH started the month at $2,486 and climbed to a high of $3,933, an increase of nearly 60%. By the end of the month, it had settled at $3,698, making July Ethereum’s strongest monthly price move since October 2021. The steady rise in ETF inflows could be a key driver behind this surge, showing that more capital entering the space may have directly boosted market sentiment and pricing. The ETH rally also marked the longest bullish monthly candle in nearly three years. As prices climbed, the spot ETFs recorded their longest-ever streak of daily net inflows, 20 days in a row without a single outflow after July 8. Some of the single-day gains came mid-month, including $726.7 million on July 16, $602 million on July 17, and $533.8 million on July 22. Ethereum could challenge its all-time high of $4,878, set in November 2021, as its rising role in decentralized finance and the growing use of regulated investment vehicles could help the asset. If the current pace of inflows and trading activity continues, it could soon take center stage in a broader altcoin-led market cycle.

Ethereum has entered a correction phase after weeks of aggressive buying pressure that pushed the price to a local high of $3,940. Following this rally, ETH has retraced over 12%, breaking below the $3,450 level as the market digests recent gains. The sharp pullback has sparked concerns of a deeper correction; however, on-chain data and market fundamentals paint a more optimistic picture. Despite the price drop, Ethereum’s underlying strength remains intact. Whale addresses continue to accumulate during this dip, signaling high-conviction buying from large investors who are positioning for long-term gains. Additionally, Ethereum network activity is rising, with metrics such as new addresses, transaction volume, and smart contract interactions climbing back to levels last seen during previous bull cycles. The broader narrative around Ethereum also remains bullish, driven by its dominance in decentralized finance (DeFi), real-world asset (RWA) tokenization, and stablecoin infrastructure. As institutional adoption grows and regulatory clarity improves, ETH’s fundamental value proposition continues to strengthen. Ethereum Network Growth Surges Top analyst Ted Pillows has shared key data from Glassnode revealing a massive surge in Ethereum network activity. According to Pillows, the number of new ETH addresses created in a single day recently hit 256,817—a figure that matches the network growth rates observed during Ethereum’s historic bull runs in 2017 and 2021. This milestone comes despite the market experiencing a recent price correction, signaling that investor interest and on-chain adoption remain robust. Such a sharp increase in new addresses is often viewed as a leading indicator of future price expansion. It reflects a growing influx of new participants entering the ecosystem, whether for DeFi, NFTs, or tokenized assets. Analysts see this rise in user activity as a foundational driver that could fuel Ethereum’s next rally, especially as ETH continues to trade just below multi-year highs. Adding to this momentum is the wave of legal clarity in the United States, which has removed significant regulatory uncertainty around Ethereum’s status. Institutional adoption is also accelerating, with large financial firms increasingly integrating Ethereum-based solutions into their offerings, from stablecoin infrastructure to tokenized securities platforms. The combination of strong on-chain fundamentals, a surge in new address creation, and institutional validation suggests that Ethereum’s current market position is not a fleeting trend. Despite short-term price fluctuations, the network’s explosive growth hints at the potential for further continuation above previous cycle highs. Ethereum Tests Key Support After Sharp Breakdown Ethereum has experienced a sharp breakdown from its recent consolidation range, with the price falling to $3,454.41 after failing to hold above the $3,600 level. The chart shows a clean rejection from the $3,860 resistance zone, leading to increased selling pressure that accelerated as ETH broke below the 50 and 100-period moving averages on the 4-hour timeframe. The next critical support now lies around the $3,450 level, which has acted as a previous accumulation zone during the last bullish leg. Volume has surged on this move down, suggesting that a significant portion of this drop is driven by short-term panic selling and liquidation cascades. However, the 200-period SMA is still positioned well below current levels, at $3,192.22, indicating that the broader uptrend remains intact unless that area is breached. If bulls manage to defend this $3,450 level and reclaim $3,600 quickly, Ethereum could stabilize and attempt a new rally towards the $3,860 resistance. Failure to do so might open the door for a deeper correction, with the $2,850 level being the next major downside target. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

Crypto analyst Marcus Corvinus has commented on the Ethereum price crash, providing optimism about the altcoin’s recent decline. The analyst explained the current price action and suggested that this was simply a minor setback before another parabolic uptrend to new highs. Ethereum Price Action And ETH’s Next Targets In an X post, Marcus Corvinus said that a hidden bullish power is brewing for the Ethereum price. The analyst further remarked that ETH is playing a smarter game than Bitcoin right now. While BTC has made lower lows, Corvinus claimed that ETH has held strong with higher lows. The analyst declared that this is not just price action but strength under pressure. The crypto analyst then highlighted what is unfolding for the Ethereum price. He noted that bearish volume has been fading since last month, which indicates that weak hands are drying out. Furthermore, Corvinus revealed that the Hidden Bullish Divergence RSI made a lower low while the price made a higher low. The analyst declared that this is a classic signal of a strong continuation setup. Meanwhile, Corvinus stated that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is oversold, but still, the Ethereum price managed to hold above July’s support on two retests. The analyst believes that this isn’t a coincidence, which is why he is confident that ETH will still rally higher. He explained that ETH isn’t reversing but consolidating at the top, a pattern which often ends in a breakout to the upside. In line with this, the crypto analyst declared that the Ethereum price crash is not the end of the move but simply the calm before the next storm. He added that eyes on ETH continuation look inevitable and that his target of between $7,000 and $8,000 this cycle is still on track. According to Corvinus, the breakout isn’t a question of if but a question of when. ETH To At Least Retest $3,000 Before Next Leg Up In an X post, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes suggested that the Ethereum price might still crash to the psychological $3,000 level before the next leg up. The crypto founder alluded to the Trump tariffs and weak US job data as the reason for this conviction. Hayes also remarked that no major economy is creating enough credit fast enough to boost nominal GDP. As such, he doesn’t see where liquidity will come from to spark a rally for the Ethereum price or other crypto prices. The BitMEX co-founder also expects the Bitcoin price to retest the psychological $100,000 level. At the time of writing, the Ethereum price is trading just below the $3,500 level, down almost 5% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

The August lull is a myth—a mirage for those who mistake heat for inertia. As this summer advances, businesses and investors should brace for turbulence, not tranquility. A kaleidoscope of US tariffs, an escalation of Russia's assault on Ukraine ahead of the American deadline, deceleration of US growth, when looking through the trade-related distortion, and the de-synchronization of the monetary cycle, weave together a narrative far more dramatic than Northern Hemisphere’s summer doldrums. Market participants and policymakers alike will be navigating a landscape increasingly defined by disruption and divergence, with the potential for unforeseen consequences echoing across continents. Universal Tariffs: What Emergency U.S. “universal tariffs” and threats of "secondary tariffs” in a broad, unambiguous signal that the world’s largest economy is unilaterally and idiosyncratically rewriting the rules. This is not the bureaucratic fine-tuning of trade frameworks; it is the imposition of an economic and financial cudgel. The politics are clear: force the rearrangement of global supply chains to favor domestic producers, even at the risk of collateral damage. Use the US leverage to demand other, non-trade related concessions. It is if an emperor in a past age, with coffers running low at home, sends out his men to shakedown the colonies and extract greater tribute. The 50% tariff threatened on Brazil, which runs a small trade deficit with the US removes any veneer about the efforts to balance trade. It is a weapon the US President seems to be able to wield freely. Congress is still not reasserting its constitutional and historic role in regulating international commerce. The appeal to the international trade court case that ruled President Trump was over-reaching his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act was heard at the end of last month. A judgement could be delivered in the coming weeks, which itself will be appealed. While the executive needs a wide berth to be able to define a national emergency, whether Canada, like the UK and France, recognize Palestine next month does not reach that bar. Nor does the judicial treatment of former Brazil President Bolsonaro. The US has recorded a sustained, and sometimes large, current account deficit for more than 40 years. Does it constitute an emergency, or has the Trump administration pulled the fire alarm because it is a lever of power that Congress has abdicated, and seems not to believe the judiciary can force its will on the executive branch? US Labor Market Headwinds Strengthen After a period of resilient US job growth, recent data now point to unmistakable signs of cooling. Whether it is a modest uptick in unemployment, waning wage gains, or softening job openings, the indicators collectively suggest a labor market losing momentum. The gap "jobs hard to get" and "plentiful" from the Conference Board's survey appears to be reaching a tipping point. The labor market, once the anchor for U.S. growth, now looks more like a weathervane, shifting with the prevailing winds. The stunning weakness of the US July jobs data likely signals the end of the month-long dollar bounce. Attention turns this year’s Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium later in August, where central bankers, economists, and market participants gather to discuss policy. The theme is "labor markets in transition." Although the Federal Reserve cut rates in Q4 24, it has been on hold this year, and it has done so practically unanimously until the two governors (Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman) dissented last month. It was the first dissent by two governors since 1993. They were concerned that the labor market was weakening and the inflation from the tariffs was unlikely to be sustained, and that correct policy stance is neutral. Still, the majority of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee accepted Chair Powell’s framing of the issue: The economy and the labor market were sufficiently strong to allow the restrictive policy push inflation closer to target. It seems like an issue of timing. We suspect the labor market weakness will spur the Fed to resume its easing cycle as early as next month. Ironically, the timing may roughly coincide with President Trump’s nomination to replace Governor Adriana Kugler, whose term ends in January. It will spur speculation if that nominee will also be the administration’s choice as a successor to Powell, whose term as governor does not end until January 2028. A nominee that Powell may think threatens the independence of the institution may encourage him to remain on the board as governor, quite a turn on the shadow Fed chair that some officials floated previously. Divergence in Motion: BoE and RBA Step Forward While the Fed hesitates, others act. The Bank of England and Reserve Bank of Australia are set to deliver rate cuts this month. Both confront softening growth, and the swaps market anticipate another cut in Q4. In addition to the BOE and RBA, the easing cycles are seen carrying into next year for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Norway’s Norges Bank. However, the rate cut cycles of other G10 central banks are approaching what the swaps market is pricing as terminal rates. The European Central Bank the Swiss National Bank, the Bank of Canada, and Sweden’s Riksbank are seen to be maybe one cut away from the end of their cycles. Eleven of the 19 FOMC members estimated that the neutral rate for Fed funds (r*) is 3% or below. With the current target at 4.25%-4.50%, the Federal Reserve has greater scope to cut rates than other G10 central banks. The Fed funds futures market is currently pricing an end of 2026 effective Fed funds rate of 3.08%. China: Quietly Redrawing the Map The US and China reached an agreement in late July to extend the "tariff truce." It was initially to end on August 12 and looks likely to be extended for another 90 days. In addition to the reduced tariffs, there appears to be tangible results. China's data suggest its outbound shipment of rare earths soared in June after the May's trickle (660% month-over-month). The US granted Nvidia the authorization to sell the H20 chips to China. The US has also cancelled a meeting with Taiwan's defense minister, which was unusual in the first place, and dis-invited Taiwan President Lai Ching-te from stopping in the US on part of a larger trip to Latin America. Another challenge looms on the near-term horizon. Taipei is seeking a $20 bln arms deal in 2026. While the West publicly reconfigures supply chains and tariffs dominate headlines, China is playing a longer, subtler game. A surge in the June trade surplus underscores Beijing’s ongoing manufacturing clout. But China’s true move comes not in trade surpluses, but in tightening its grip on advanced technologies. China exports almost 20% of its GDP, which is a smaller share than most G10 countries. July’s new export license requirements for key EV battery components are more than regulatory tinkering; they are a calculated escalation. Lithium-ion chemistries, advanced electrolytes—these are not just inputs, but strategic levers. China’s message is pointed: any attempt to decouple comes with high, real-time costs. It calls into question Ford's plan to build at an EV battery plant in Michigan that was planning on licensing Chinese technology. There is another layer as well: China’s expanding Belt and Road strategy and aggressive digital infrastructure outreach quietly reshape the global South, offering alternatives to U.S.-led frameworks. As America’s posture grows confrontational, China’s pitch—stability through partnership—resonates with nations seeking autonomy from the dollar-centric order. August as a Crucible All told, August isn’t about summer slowness, it’s a crucible moment for the global economy: Universal tariffs, Russia's war on Ukraine continues as does the conflict in the Middle East, rising nationalism and militarism, while the two largest economies feel their way around supply chain dominance in the name of statecraft. Investors should prepare themselves for turbulence, not just in commodities and currencies but in the very assumptions undergirding supply chains and policy. This is a world where lines between the short-term and structural, the domestic and international, blur by the week. Markets will reward those who stay vigilant, nimble, and unsentimental about old certainties. The stage is set not for a return to stasis, but for another phase in the recalibration of globalization itself. Bannockburn World Currency Index Bannockburn's World Currency Index is a GDP-weighted index of the currencies of the dozen largest economies, as it turns out, evenly divided between high income and emerging market currencies. It posted its first monthly decline of the year as the other 11 currencies fell against the dollar. The 1.3% decline offset the gains recorded in May and June. It fell to around 95.50 and that could prove to be the low before the uptrend resumes. The currency that fell the least in the basket was the Chinese yuan. It fell 0.5%. Among the broader emerging market currency complex, the only currency that did better than the Chinese yuan was the Hong Kong dollar, which is pegged to the greenback. The Mexican peso, a market favorite, fell by a little less than 0.7% and was the only other currency in the BWCI that fell by less than 1.0%. On the other hand, the Japanese yen was the poorest performer in the BWCI. It fell by about 4.4% in July, the third consecutive monthly decline. The euro, sterling, and the Brazilian real fell by 3% or more. The other constituents BWCI, the Australian dollar, the Indian rupee, the Russian ruble, and the South Korean won fell by 2.1%-2.85%. Based on the World Bank's report on the previous year's GDP, we adjust the weights of Bannockburn's World Currency Index. The adjustments are typically minor. That was the case this year. The biggest changes were the US dollar's weight edged up to about 33.25% (from 32.90%). and the yen's weight was reduced to about 4.6% (from 5.0%). Among emerging market currencies, the yuan, Brazilian real, and South Korean won's weights were shaved, while India's rupee, Russian ruble, and Mexican peso's weight crept up slightly. Overall, the weight of the currencies from high income countries and emerging market currencies was nearly flat, slightly below 2/3. U.S. Dollar: The dollar's rally in July was predicated on a rise in US rates and economic data that proved more resilient than expected. That ended dramatically with the disappointing US July jobs report. A break of the 97.85 area in the Dollar Index could signal a resumption of the greenback's downtrend. The weakness in job growth and the rise in the unemployment rate illustrates the concerns expressed by the two dissenting Fed governors about the labor market growth stalling. Raising household debt stress levels, slowing hiring, and the rising prices of goods, associated with the tariff may weigh on consumption, a key engine of growth. The distortions associated with trade and inventories injected volatility into US GDP in the first two quarters of the year, but growth is expected to slow in the second half. We look for two rate cuts and suspect there is a greater chance of three cuts than one. US tariff revenue through July was about $126 bln, compared with around $55 bln in the same period in 2024. Many, if not most, economists, understand the tariffs to be largely a tax on consumption, and the replenishing of the Treasury's General Account, after it was run down as the debt-ceiling approached earlier this will also tighten financial conditions. Despite the tariff revenue, the US budget deficit may widen from $1.8 trillion in 2024 (~6.4% of GDP). Euro: The euro snapped a six-month rally in July and fell by almost 3.2%. It fell from almost a four-year high on July 1, near $1.1830 to almost $1.1400 at the end of the month. While this fell shy of technical retracement levels, the downside correction may have ended. Our year-end target of $1.20 still seems reasonable and may still prove to be conservative. The increased prospect of a Fed cut in September seems to have helped it forge a low. The dramatic change in US policy and the uncertainty emanating from it arguably means that investors will demand a higher interest rate premium to hold on to dollars. As of August 1, the US two-year premium over Germany fell to near a four-month low close to 180 bp. It spent most of July above 200 bp. The derivative market is pricing in about 15 bp of easing by the ECB in the remainder of the year (60% of a cut) while it has moved to a discount of a little more than 50 bp of cuts by the Federal Reserve. The 15% tariff the US has imposed apparently includes autos and pharma but not metals. The other details of the other elements, like $750 bln purchases of US energy and $600 bln in direct investment, do not appear to have been worked out yet. And even then, it requires a qualified majority of countries (55% of the member states, or 15 of the 27 countries, and representing 65% of the total EU population) and the European Parliament to approve. This will be no easy matter. (As of August 1, indicative closing prices, previous in parentheses) Spot: $1.1587 ($1.1718) Median Bloomberg One-month forecast: $1.1648 ($1.1635) One-month forward: $1.1611 ($1.1743) One-month implied vol: 7.7% (8.3%) Japanese Yen: After falling for the first four months of the year, the dollar rose for its third consecutive month against the Japanese yen in July. The yen was the weakest G10 currency last month, falling by about 4.4%, which left it up around 4.0% year-to-date. The dollar looks to have peaked near JPY151 before the US employment data. We see potential toward back to JPY145 in the coming week as the market has the weakness of the labor market caps US interest rates. The dollar's movement against the yen is strongly influenced by two factors-its overall direction and the US 10-year Treasury yield. Changes in the exchange rate and the Dollar Index have about a 0.85 correlation over the last 30 and 60 sessions. Changes in the exchange rate and that 10-year US yield is slightly above 0.75 in the past 30 sessions and slightly below 0.55 over the past 60 sessions. Although the US and Japan appear to have reached a trade agreement that applies a 15% levy on Japan's imports to the US, including auto and parts, which account for around 80% of Japan's trade surplus with the US. There seems to be less agreement regarding the $550 bln (14% of Japan's GDP) direct investment that the US says Japan promised. Japan will continue to import rice from the US under its quota system and will not impose new safety regulations on US autos imports. US autos tend to be larger and less fuel efficient than Japanese consumers want. After losing the lower house majority in 2024 and the upper house majority last month, pressure to replace Prime Minister Ishiba seems to be intensifying. Spot: JPY147.40 (JPY144.65) Median Bloomberg One-month forecast: JPY143.65 (JPY145.55) One-month forward: JPY146.90 (JPY144.15). One-month implied vol: 9.4% (10.0%) British Pound: Sterling reach almost $1.3790 in early July, its best level since October 2021. However, the broader US dollar recovery and a series of disappointing UK data took sterling to around $1.3140 before the US employment data on August 1, its lowest level since mid-May at the end of July. That may market the bottom of sterling's pullback. A move above $1.3400 could target $1.36 next as it works its way higher. While the market is confident that the Bank of England will cut rates at the August 7 meeting (~94%), which will bring the base rate to 4.00%. The swaps are fully pricing in a cut in Q4. The swaps market has a terminal rate near 3.50%. The poor economic performance serves to aggravate the fiscal straits of the government, but this may not reach a head until the budget in the fall. Ideas to use confiscated crypto may help on the margins but will not address the underlying challenges. The Labour government seems to the right Labour MPs in Parliament. The Conservatives also seem split. This appears to be allowing Nigel Farage's Reform UK Party to continue to make headway. Spot: $1.3279 ($1.3715) Median Bloomberg One-month forecast: $1.3454 ($1.3635) One-month forward: $1.3285 ($1.3720) One-month implied vol: 7.3% (7.6%) Canadian Dollar: After falling for the past five months, the US dollar rose by about 1.8% against the Canadian dollar is July. It initially tested the lower end of a two-month range, falling to around CAD1.3555 before recovering to a two-month high near CAD1.3880 in late July. The chief driver is the overall direction of the greenback more broadly rather than local developments in Canada. The rolling 30-day correlation between changes in the exchange rate and the Dollar Index is slightly above 0.75. Recall that in early February, the 30-day correlation briefly was below 0.20, the lowest since August 2023. The Bank of Canada met in late July and left policy on hold. It holds out the possibility that after front-loading rate cuts, there may be scope for another one. The swaps market is unsure that it will be delivered this year, even though economists anticipate that the economy contracted in Q2 and will likely stagnate in Q3. The swaps market is discounting about an 87% chance of a cut before the end of the year and does not have a cut fully discounted even next year. Canada's strategy to address the shock coming from the US seems two-fold. First, it diversifies trade away from the US and strengthens relations with Europe, and second is to reduce internal barriers to trade between provinces. The OECD's model of purchasing power parity has the Canadian dollar the third most under-valued currency within the G10 at nearly 21% behind the Japanese yen and euro. It estimates fair value at CAD1.14. This seems like a stretch, but potential may exist toward CAD1.31-CAD1.34 next year. Spot: CAD1.3786 (CAD 1.3690) Median Bloomberg One-month forecast: CAD1.3739 (CAD1.3695) One-month forward: CAD1.3765 (CAD1.3670) One-month implied vol: 5.0% (6.1%) Australian Dollar: After cutting rates in February and May, the Reserve Bank of Australia surprised market participants by standing pat in July (overnight cash target 3.85%). RBA Governor Bullock stressed that the easing cycle was not over, but the central bank was committed to a gradual course and a further moderation of price pressures is needed. The Q2 CPI, reported at the end of July, in fact, eased to 2.2% year-over-year from 2.4% in Q1. It is the lowest since Q1 21. The futures market anticipates a cut at the August 12 meeting (~93%) and at least one more cut in Q4. The swaps market anticipates a terminal rate between 3.0% and 3.25%. The Australian dollar reached a new high for the year in late July near $0.6625. The upside momentum stalled, and the Australian dollar finished July with around a 2.4% loss, among the least in the G10. It was the first monthly loss since February. It found support ahead of $0.6400 in late July. Provided it holds, we look for the Australian dollar to recover. A move above $0.6550 would boost the chances of a resumption of the uptrend. Spot: $0.6474 ($0.6530) Median Bloomberg One-month forecast: $0.6488 ($0.6520) One-month forward: $0.6490 ($0.6535) One-month implied vol: 9.0% (10.1%) Mexican Peso: The dollar has been trending lower since the peak near MXN21.08 in early April as threat intensified. The selling pressure pushed the greenback to a new low for the year in late July around MXN18.5250. During the downtrend, the dollar appears to have completed its fifth countertrend bounce slightly above MXN19.00 before the dismal July US jobs report. Between the spot appreciation of the peso and yield pick-up, for dollar-based investors, the peso returned about 16.8% year-to-date. While a few other emerging market currencies, including the Hungarian forint and Brazilian real have generated superior returns (closer to 20%), the lower peso volatility and practically 24-hour a day liquidity illustrates why it is a favorite long of carry-trade strategies of levered pools of capital. We expect the dollar's downtrend to resume and target the MXN18.35-40 area next. Mexico's economy is growing slowly, the underlying strength of the peso and news that headline inflation fell below 4% in the first half of July, back within the target range for the first time since the end of April, have encouraged speculation of a rate cut at the August 7 central bank meeting. Spot: MXN18.8595 (MXN18.8240) Median Bloomberg One-month forecast: MXN18.9359 (MXN19.5285) One-month forward: MXN18.9227 (MXN18.89) One-month implied vol: 8.5% (9.6%) Chinese Yuan: The yuan rose to a marginal new high for the year against the dollar in July and the PBOC continued to moderate its gains primarily through setting the daily setting of the dollar's reference rate. Officials continue to show a little more flexibility in setting that reference rate, and its average daily change is more than seen in the first couple months of the year. Despite tariffs levied on China by the US and others, China reported a Q2 trade surplus of almost $314 bln, a record, after a $272 bln surplus in Q1 (and $252 bln in Q2 24). China estimated Q2 GDP at 5.2% year-over-year but even if the estimate were not suspect, the quality is with the property sector still a drag on prices, wealth effect, consumption, and profits. We have consistently argued that China suffers from over-investment rather than under-consumption. Consumption has been rising in China faster than in most countries, but investment has been rising too, and this has kept their proportions to GDP out of balance. A new word crept into the lexicon in July, "anti-involution" which is essentially about the pressure on prices and profits stemming from over-investment. In part, we trace it to Chinese businesses access to patient capital (state-owned bank lending), which supports competition for market share rather than profits. In addition, the decentralized planning on the local government level and the competition for the rewards of success lead to provinces pouring investment into new opportunities (e.g., steel, solar panels, AI, EVs, batteries, etc.). Spot: CNY7.1933 (CNY7.1725) Median Bloomberg One-month forecast: CNY7.1861 (CNY7.1830) One-month forward: CNY7.1450 (CNY7.1455) One-month implied vol: 5.1% (4.8%) Disclaimer