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Overview: There are two main drivers today. The outcome of Japan's LDP leadership contest means Japan will have its first woman prime minister, She espouses the traditional LDP policy mix of expansionary fiscal policy and advocates easy monetary policy. The yen was sent reeling as were Japanese bonds, where the 40-year yield surged 15 bp to around 3.55%. Japanese stocks jumped 3%-4%. The second development was the unexpected resignation of the French prime minister who was in office less than a month. French bonds and stocks have been sold, and the euro has been dragged lower. Despite the continued shutdown of the US federal government and no sign of an off-ramp, the greenback is higher against nearly all the currencies today. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rallied 2.75% last week, with mainland Chinese markets shut for the extended national holiday. Most bourses in the region continued to rally today (with Hong Kong and Australia the exceptions among the larger markets), led by Taiwan and South Korea. France's CAC 40 is off more than 1.6%, while the Stoxx 600 is snapping a six-day rally and is about 0.3% weaker. US S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are 0.35%-0.55% higher. Benchmark 10-year yields are mostly 2-3 bp higher in Europe, though the French yield is almost eight basis points firmer and the 10-year Gilt yield is up five basis points. The 10-year US Treasury yield is three basis points higher at 4.15%. Gold has raced to a new record high near $3950 but is slightly below $3940 in late European morning turnover. OPEC+ announced a 137k barrel increase in output next month, which was not as large as some feared. This is helping support prices today. November WTI is up a little more than $1 a barrel and is straddling $62. Last week's high was a little above $65. USD: The dollar's rally after the FOMC meeting extended from around 96.20 to 98.60. It retreated to almost 97.40 last week and consolidated mostly below 98.00 in last few sessions. The combination of the sharp yen losses in response to the outcome of Japan’s LDP leadership contest and the surprise resignation of France's prime minister lifted the Dollar Index to almost 98.50 today. The high from late September was near 98.60. The 91.70 area is the (61.8%) retracement of DXY's loss since August 1, which has capped it for two months. With the US federal government still shut and no Federal Reserve or private sector on tap, sentiment, momentum, and market positioning have extra sway. EURO: France's Prime Minister Lecornu was already expected to face a difficult confidence vote later this week but President Macron's cabinet appointments, which were largely similar to the past government sealed Lecornu's fate. He resigned after having the post for less than a month. French stocks and bonds have sold off. It is not clear what Macron will do. The euro has been sold from the pre-weekend close near $1.1740 to almost $1.1650. The low from late September was near $1.1645. A break signals a potential test on the $1.1600, which the euro has not closed below for two months. Less significantly, the eurozone reported a 0.1% increase in August retail sales after a revised 0.4% decline in July (initially -0.5%). That is the only aggregate data this week. Germany's August factory order (Tuesday), industrial production (Wednesday), and trade figures (Thursday). Before the weekend, France reported an unexpected sharp 0.7% decrease in manufacturing and industrial output in August after sharp declines in July were reduced dramatically in revisions (e.g., industrial production fell by 0.1% rather than 1.1%). Spain reports its industrial output rose by 0.3% in August (-0.5% in July). Italy reports its numbers at the end of the week. CNY: Mainland markets will re-open Thursday. The dollar was near CNH7.13 when the onshore market closed for the extended holiday. Since then, the greenback has traded between roughly CNH7.1225 and CNH7.14. It approached the upper end of the range before the weekend amid a generally soft US dollar environment. The broad dollar decline today saw the greenback climb to CNH7.15 area, which capped the greenback in September. Above there, the next interesting chart area is around CNH7.1545. JPY: The dollar's pullback from the peak seen on September 25-26 stalled last week near JPY146.55 and it recovered to JPY147.75. The key to the upside JPY148.25, where the 200-day moving average and the (61.8%) retracement of the recent pullback from JPY150 is found, but Takaichi victory in the second round of the LDP leadership contest has driven the dollar to almost JPY150.45 today. The dollar gapped higher. Last Friday's high was about JPY147.80 and today's low was slightly above JPY149.00. Recall that the high from early August was closer to JPY150.90. Above there, JPY151.60 corresponds to the (61.8%) retracement of this year's dollar slide. After some formalities, she will be the next prime minister. The LDP lost its majority, but it is still the largest party in the Diet. Japan's CPI is second highest in the G10 behind the UK (3.47% vs. 3.50%). First thing tomorrow, Japan will reported August household spending. GBP: After retracting half of what it lost since the Fed's rate cut, sterling stalled near $1.3525 in the middle of last week. Amid the consolidative phase that emerged, it held above $1.3400. It settled near $1.3480 before the weekend and has been dragged back to slightly below $1.3420 today. A break of $1.3400 would target the low from late September near $1.3325. At the end of last week, the UK reported that new car registrations (a proxy for auto purchases) rose for the first time since June on a year-over-year basis. Today, it reported that the September construction PMI rose to 46.2 from 45.5 in August. It has not been above the 50 boom/bust level this year. CAD: The Canadian dollar fell to its lowest level since May last Thursday before consolidating ahead of the weekend. The 200-day moving average (~CAD1.3985) and the CAD1.40 level held. A break of CAD1.39 would suggest a high may be in place. Still, sentiment toward the Canadian dollar is poor and the decline in the September PMIs reported last week underscore the economic weakness. The Bank of Canada is seen as one of the few G10 central banks that will likely cut interest rates before the end of the year. The disruption of trade has been a significant drag on the economy. The August merchandise trade balance will be reported tomorrow, and the median forecast in Bloomberg's survey calls for a C$5.75 bln deficit, up from C$4.94 in July and almost a C$1.70 bln deficit in August 2024. AUD: Last week, the Australian dollar snapped a two-week decline. The decline was marked by a key downside reversal on September 17, when the Fed cut interest rates. The Aussie had made a new high for the year and then turned around and settled below the previous day's low. The sell-off that was signaled, from a little above $0.6700, ended last Monday near $0.6520, overshooting the (61.8%) retracement of the rally that began in late August around $0.6415. It consolidated within last Tuesday's range (~$0.6570-$0.6630) in the last three sessions and is still in the range today. This week's Australian data, a thinktank's inflation measure and a bank's consumer confidence index, typically have little market impact. However, the highlight this week is in New Zealand, where nearly half of the economists surveyed by Bloomberg's survey anticipate a 50 bp rate cut in the middle of the week while indicative pricing in the swaps market puts it closer to a 30% probability. MXN: The dollar traded in a range of roughly MXN18.24-MXN18.5160 last Wednesday and Thursday before consolidating before the weekend. This range remains intact today, where the dollar is trading between MXN18.37 and MXN18.49. Mexico's September consumer confidence is reported today it draws scant attention. The week's key events come on Thursday: the September CPI and the minutes from the recent central bank meeting, which decided to cut the overnight rate (25 bp to 7.50%). The risk is that the headline rate (3.57% in August) moves toward the core rate (4.23%) rather than the other way around. Still, the minutes will likely reaffirm majority's view that the economic weakness warrants a less restrictive stance. The economy grew by 0.6% in Q2 (quarter-over-quarter), and the median forecast in Bloomberg's survey projects the economy stagnated in Q3. Disclaimer

Trend Analysis (Fig. 1). This week, from the 1.1741 level (the close of the last weekly candle), the market may start moving downward toward the target of 1.1572 – the upper fractal (red dotted line). Upon testing this level, the price may rebound upward toward the target of 1.1649 – the 23.6% retracement level (blue dotted line). Fig. 1 (Weekly chart). Comprehensive Analysis: Indicator analysis – down;Fibonacci levels – down;Volumes – down;Candlestick analysis – down;Trend analysis – down;Bollinger Bands – down;Monthly chart – down.Conclusion from comprehensive analysis: Downward movement. General outcome for the EUR/USD weekly candle calculation: The price this week will most likely show a downward trend, with no first upper shadow on the weekly black candle (Monday – down) and the presence of a lower shadow (Friday – up). Alternative scenario: From the 1.1741 level (close of the last weekly candle), the pair may begin a downward move toward the 1.1488 historical resistance level (blue dotted line). Upon testing this level, the price may begin an upward move toward 1.1536 – the 38.2% retracement level (blue dotted line). The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

According to Morgan Stanley’s wealth unit, some clients should hold only a small slice of cryptocurrencies in their portfolios. The firm’s guidance suggests a cautious approach: up to 2% for more measured portfolios and up to 4% for those seeking higher growth. For accounts built around income or capital preservation, the guidance points to 0% crypto exposure. Small Stakes, Careful Rules The bank tells its advisors that crypto belongs in the “speculative” part of a plan. Based on reports, the recommended exposure is meant to be modest and controlled. Morgan Stanley prefers clients access crypto through exchange-traded products rather than buying every coin directly. That keeps custody and reporting simpler, the guidance says. It also means brokers can use ETFs and ETPs to give clients exposure without requiring them to manage wallets. How To Manage The Exposure Rebalancing is part of the advice. Reports show the firm recommends checking and trimming positions on a set schedule so that a crypto stake does not balloon during a rally. Advisors are told to match allocations to client goals, not to follow price moves. The guidance is clear: this is not for people who need steady income. It is for clients who can tolerate wide swings and who understand the risk of losing their full investment. A Move Toward More Access Morgan Stanley is also working on ways to make crypto easier to trade for some of its clients. Based on reports, the firm has a deal to let E*Trade customers trade cryptocurrencies via a partner platform. Initial support is expected for Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana. That shift would expand access while keeping many of the operational and custody functions with a regulated provider. Market Reaction And Industry Context Analysts and advisors reacted as expected. Some welcomed the clarity and the firm’s limits. Others said the guidance still leaves open big questions about regulation and long-term risk. The move reflects a wider trend among big wealth managers that are opening controlled doors to digital assets while still warning clients about volatility and legal uncertainty. Large wealth firms set norms for many investors. When a major bank offers concrete percentages, it can shape what advisors recommend across the market. Based on Morgan Stanley’s view, crypto will likely remain a niche allocation for the foreseeable future. The firm’s language stresses caution and individual fit. Investors who want exposure will find managed options and clearer paths to trade. But the bottom line is unchanged: only those who can accept big swings should consider putting money into these assets. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

On Friday, the EUR/USD pair continued to rise after bouncing from the 76.4% retracement level at 1.1695. Thus, on Monday this process may continue toward the resistance zone of 1.1789–1.1802. A consolidation of quotes below 1.1695 would favor the U.S. dollar and a further decline toward the support level of 1.1637–1.1645. The wave situation on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed downward wave broke the previous wave's low, while the last upward wave did not break the previous peak. Thus, the trend currently remains "bearish." The latest labor market data and the changed outlook for the Fed's monetary policy support bullish traders, so I expect a shift of the trend to "bullish." For the "bearish" trend to end, the price needs to consolidate above the last peak – 1.1779. On Friday, there were few notable events, but the main one remains the American "shutdown." The U.S. Senate, where the budget bill for the next fiscal year is stuck, has already gathered several times for new votes, but the result is the same – Republicans lack the necessary 60 votes to pass the budget and restart the government and all federal agencies. Traders have chosen the least obvious tactic in reacting to this event. They are ignoring the flow of disappointing U.S. statistics and have decided to pause until the "shutdown" ends. When and how it will end – no one knows. Thus, traders have likely decided not to make any important decisions until the situation clears up. The budget impasse lies not in the stance of Democrats or Republicans, but in the intransigence of both parties. Donald Trump has publicly stated that he will not yield to Democrats' demands to restore social and healthcare programs. How he intends to win over at least seven Democratic senators remains unclear. On the 4-hour chart, the pair turned in favor of the euro around the 1.1680 level, but in recent months movements have become more sideways. Growth may resume toward the 161.8% retracement level at 1.1854. A consolidation below 1.1680 would favor the U.S. dollar and open the way for a further decline toward the 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.1495. No emerging divergences are observed today. Commitments of Traders (COT) Report: During the last reporting week, professional players closed 789 long positions and opened 2,625 short positions. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group remains "bullish" thanks to Donald Trump – and is strengthening over time. The total number of long positions held by speculators is now 252,000, compared with 138,000 short positions. The gap is essentially twofold. Also note the number of green cells in the table above – they reflect strong increases in euro positions. In most cases, interest in the euro is only growing, while interest in the dollar is declining. For thirty-three consecutive weeks, large players have been shedding short positions and building longs. Donald Trump's policies remain the most significant factor for traders, as they could create many problems of a long-term and structural nature for America. Despite the signing of several important trade agreements, many key economic indicators continue to decline. News Calendar for the U.S. and Eurozone: Eurozone – Retail sales change (09:00 UTC).The October 6 economic calendar contains only one entry, which is not important. The influence of the news background on market sentiment on Monday will be very weak. EUR/USD Forecast and Trader Advice: Sales will be possible on a rebound from the 1.1789–1.1802 zone with a target at 1.1695. Purchases were possible on a rebound from the 1.1637–1.1645 zone, as well as on a rebound from 1.1695 with a target at 1.1789–1.1802. New purchases can be considered if similar signals form. The Fibonacci grids are built between 1.1789–1.1392 on the hourly chart and between 1.1214–1.0179 on the 4-hour chart. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Friday rose to the 61.8% retracement level at 1.3482, bounced off it, turned in favor of the dollar, fell to the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.3425, and rebounded from it. Thus, today the growth process may resume toward the 1.3482 level. A consolidation of the pair below 1.3425 would allow us to expect a further decline toward the support level at 1.3332–1.3357, from where the bulls' last ascent began. The wave structure remains "bearish." The last completed downward wave did not break the previous low, and the last upward wave did not break the previous high. The news background over the past week was negative for the U.S. dollar, but the bulls have not yet taken advantage of the opportunities to launch an offensive. To cancel the "bearish" trend, the pair needs to rise above 1.3528. On Friday, there was a fair amount of economic data, but almost all reports were insignificant—except ISM. In Germany and the Eurozone, the final estimates of the September services and manufacturing PMIs were released, which drew no interest from traders. Quite another matter was the ISM Services PMI, which was published only once. Business activity in the services sector fell by a full 2 points and barely managed to stay above 50.0. Traders had expected a slowdown of just 0.3 points. Thus, on Friday the dollar was walking a fine line, at risk of collapsing at any moment. Recall that not only were PMIs disappointed last week. The ADP report was also discouraging, failing even to show a positive figure (above 0). I won't even mention the government shutdown—traders understand this is yet another risk factor for the dollar. Thus, I fully support the process of the pound rising and the dollar falling. However, bulls are still in no hurry to attack. On the 4-hour chart, the pair rebounded from the 1.3339 level and turned in favor of the pound sterling. A consolidation above the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3435 increases the likelihood of continued growth toward the 127.2% retracement level at 1.3795. No emerging divergences are seen in any indicator today. A new decline in the pound can be expected only after consolidation below 1.3339. Commitments of Traders (COT) Report: The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became more "bullish" over the last reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 3,704, while the number of short positions decreased by 912. The current gap between long and short positions is roughly 85,000 vs. 86,000. Bullish traders are once again tilting the scales in their favor. In my view, the pound still retains downward potential, but with each passing month the U.S. dollar looks weaker and weaker. Whereas earlier traders worried about Donald Trump's protectionist policies without fully understanding their consequences, now they may be worrying about the aftereffects: a possible recession, the constant introduction of new tariffs, Trump's battles with the Fed, which could ultimately make the regulator "politically controlled" by the White House. Thus, the pound already looks far less dangerous than the U.S. currency. News Calendar for the U.S. and the U.K.: U.K. – Speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey (17:30 UTC).The October 6 economic calendar contains only one entry, but it is quite important. The influence of the news background on market sentiment on Monday may be moderate in strength—if Bailey says anything significant regarding monetary policy. GBP/USD Forecast and Trader Advice: Sales of the pair were possible after a bounce from the 1.3482 level with targets at 1.3425 and 1.3357 on the hourly chart. The first target has already been met. New sales are possible if the pair closes below 1.3425, targeting 1.3332–1.3357. Purchases could be considered after a rebound from 1.3425 with targets at 1.3482 and 1.3528. These long positions can currently remain open. The Fibonacci grids are built between 1.3332–1.3725 on the hourly chart and between 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Is Bitcoin about to steal the spotlight again? As the FOMC meeting looms, investors are fleeing risky altcoins and piling into the king of crypto. Bitcoin dominance just climbed past 59%, its highest level in months, as traders brace for what could be another rate cut in November. With the crypto market turning cautious, coins like MYX, ASTER, and LINEA are being hammered in what appears to be a textbook de-risking move. Crypto Fear and Greed Chart All time 1y 1m 1w 24h The big question now: is this the calm before a massive altcoin rebound, or the start of another wave of capitulation? With the BTC price steady near $124K and FOMO building across the market, smart money rotations are occurring extremely quickly. Market Cap 24h 7d 30d 1y All Time Is Bitcoin Dominance Going to Experience Another Run Amid the FOMC Meeting? Bitcoin dominance has been one of the most closely watched charts among traders to predict whether an altcoin season is coming or not. Once BTC.D goes up, almost everything else suffers, and this time, the case is not different. After the breaking of well-respected 200 EMA and SMA levels from 2023, BTC.D dropped 13.3%, giving the altcoin room for growth over the past couple of months. Now, Bitcoin dominance appears to be gaining traction again ahead of the FOMC, rising 3.7% to 59%. (Source – TradingView) Currently, the dominance increase preceding the FOMC aligns perfectly with the chart re-testing the 200 EMA and SMA, which are bearish. Once the rate cuts are announced, BTC.D will likely nose-dive. This will result in a mass transfer of cash flow from Bitcoin and stablecoins into altcoins. These rotations sometimes can happen really fast, and many traders position themselves earlier on speculation, trying to catch the most of those moves. On a weekly time frame, this aligns perfectly with testing the 200 EMA and SMA lines acting as support. Eventually, dominance will bounce from there, leading to another .cwp-coin-chart svg path { stroke-width: 0.65 !important; } Bitcoin BTC $123,908.03 0.86% Bitcoin BTC Price $123,908.03 0.86% /24h Volume in 24h $49.86B Price 7d Learn more is currently the best-positioned coin, with many seeing huge potential once the cut rates drop. Currently, LINEA price is consolidating in a huge triangle, poised to explode. If that happens, we will see a breakout of the $0.0285 level, followed by a rally to the previous highs at $0.035. Market Cap 24h 7d 30d 1y All Time If that doesn’t happen and the outcome is bearish, we will look for support at the $0.025 price level. Either way, this is going to leave Linea as one of the strongest contenders once altcoin season is back and risk mode is on. (Source – TradingView) DISCOVER: The 12+ Hottest Crypto Presales to Buy Right Now Join The 99Bitcoins News Discord Here For The Latest Market Updates Key Takeaways Bitcoin dominance is crawling back up pre-FOMC meeting. Is this the perfect time to look for the best altcoins in the market? The post Bitcoin Dominance Rises For FOMC: Markets Offload MYX, ASTER, and LINEA In De-Risk Move appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

Yesterday (October 5), a bombshell was dropped on Aster Crypto, the newly launched Perp DEX platform that has taken the market by storm with a +7,000% price increase for its native token, ASTER. The YZi Labs-backed platform has also dominated TVL and trading volume metrics, quickly surpassing the competition, including Hyperliquid. However, it is these numbers that have come under scrutiny, with the Web3 data platform DefiLlama delisting its perpetual volume metrics and the founder of DefiLlama posting a thread on X, explaining why the platform has delisted Aster. Market Cap 24h 7d 30d 1y All Time This is a damning indictment for ASTER crypto, as DefiLlama is regarded as the gold standard for Web3 protocol metrics. ASTER has crashed by 10% to $1.87 overnight, which appears to be the beginning of the end for Binance founder CZ and his pet Perp DEX project. DefiLlama Founder Explains Aster Perp Volume Delisting Traders are climbing over each other to put the nail into ASTER’s coffin, with Noodles summarizing the fud with the following post on X; “Cloned an old DEX (Apollo), zero innovation. Masked fake volumes to inflate metrics and hype, full-on wash trading. Pushed an “anti-DeFiLlama” narrative to mislead anyone exposing the real data. In short: Short Aster to zero. Tell me the last good thing ever built on Binance. I bet you can’t name one. No innovative DeFi protocols, no real DEX tech, no lending protocols, no real order-book innovation….nothing.” This sentiment from Noodles is being echoed across social media right now, meaning that YZi Labs, Binance, and CZ will need to utilize all available resources to salvage Aster Crypto’s reputation and prevent the ASTER price from plummeting to zero. EXPLORE: Best Meme Coin ICOs to Invest in October Join The 99Bitcoins News Discord Here For The Latest Market Updates The post DefiLlama Founder Goes Scorched Earth on ASTER Crypto: Can Binance Listing Save It? appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

Dogecoin is compressing beneath a dense band of weekly resistance that could unlock a powerful upside continuation once cleared, according to crypto analyst The Great Mattsby (@matthughes13). In his October 5 video, Mattsby frames the 0.618 retracement from the 2021 peak to the 2022 cycle low—marked at $0.26261—as the immediate trigger that “price is still getting rejected at,” adding: “That’s the area of interest to maybe try to close above.” Screenshots of his weekly DOGE/USDT chart show price hovering around $0.248–$0.249 at the time of recording, with a session high near $0.265 and low near $0.226, underscoring how repeatedly the market has tested the band without securing a decisive close. Dogecoin Coils Beneath Massive Resistance Mattsby argues the difficulty stems from confluence rather than a single line. “A big pile of resistance right here in the 24 to 26-cent zone,” he said, pointing to the lower edge of the Ichimoku Cloud and the conversion line stacked atop the 0.618. His chart annotates the Ichimoku Conversion Line at ~$0.2512, with clustered simple moving averages just beneath and around it—~$0.2464 and ~$0.2453—creating a narrow corridor where rallies stall and pullbacks find immediate bids. He also flags the cloud ceiling as the last gate before momentum expansion; while he verbally referenced “around 28 cents,” the screenshotted weekly readout places Ichimoku Leading Span B near ~$0.2937, effectively defining a resistance shelf running from roughly $0.26 up to the high-$0.28s–$0.29s. Despite the stall, Mattsby is clear that the structure has turned constructive. “It was a beautiful breakout back test of this orange arc… and ever since that bottom in April, it’s higher highs, higher low, higher high, higher low. So, it is the market structure that is required to break out.” He expects more time within the range but anticipates an impulsive resolution once the lid gives way: “One of these weeks we might be able to see like a bullish engulfing candle just breaking through multiple levels and just continuing higher.” In his words, “Not ready to break free just yet, but the setup is there… a little bit more patience, but it’s setting up perfectly to go higher.” The screenshots anchor both the upside roadmap and the invalidation rungs. Overhead, the Fibonacci stack above the 0.618 pins subsequent hurdles at the 0.702 (~$0.3298), 0.786 (~$0.4142), 0.886 (~$0.5432) levels as well as the all-time high at 0.73995—zones that historically attract profit-taking and trend acceleration when reclaimed in strong cycles. Below, the weekly Ichimoku scaffolding outlines support stair-steps at Leading Span A (~$0.2348) and the Base Line (~$0.2184), aligning with Mattsby’s preferred “accumulation” pocket. “I love this 24-cent zone, maybe even down to the 22-cent zone. That area of support looks beautiful for accumulation until it’s ready to break free,” he said. Deeper, the mid-cycle retracement marks line up at 0.500 (~$0.1907), 0.382 (~$0.1385) and 0.236 (~$0.0932). Related Reading: Can Dogecoin Hit $1? Bullish Patterns and Global Adoption Spark Fresh October Optimism Mattsby also reiterates the role of the weekly 50-period moving average as an active barrier within the same band, emphasizing that DOGE is “still battling that as a potential resistance trying to flip it all to support.” The proximity of the 50-week to the conversion line and the 0.618 fib is part of what makes the cluster decisive: a weekly close through $0.26261 that also recaptures the conversion line and neutralizes the cloud’s lower boundary would simultaneously flip multiple filters—momentum, trend, and mean—into alignment. The bottom line of his roadmap is unambiguous. The market is coiling directly beneath the $0.26 trigger while building a rising base above $0.22–$0.24. The analyst’s expectation is for continued high-level consolidation until an outsized candle resolves the stalemate. “It’s almost ready—just not yet,” he concluded. “It’s not if, it is when… once that barrier breaks, the true excitement can begin.” At press time, DOGE traded at $0.25671.

Asia Market Wrap - Japan Politics Send Markets in a Tailspin, Nikkei Up 4.8% Most Read: USD/JPY Price Outlook: Key Levels, BoJ, and Political Risks Global markets were boosted over the weekend as stock prices soared while currencies and bonds fell. Some investors turned to gold and Bitcoin for safety as Japan’s election of a pro-stimulus leader fueled expectations for aggressive fiscal spending. In Asia, shares jumped to new highs. The Nikkei 225 rose about 5% percent, reaching a record after Sanae Takaichi won the election as the new Prime Minister. At the same time the yen fell close to two percent, slipping to about 150 per dollar and hitting a low against the euro. Longer term Japanese government bonds dropped sharply, as market participants are worried a Takaichi administration could issue more debt for tax cuts. The chance that the Bank of Japan will raise rates by year‑end dropped to 41%, down from 68% on Friday. A year earlier Takaichi called a BOJ rate rise “stupid,” but she has since adopted a more cautious rhetoric, saying policy should match the government’s goals. Many regional markets were closed for holidays, such as mainland China, South Korea and Taiwan. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped a little, 0.7%, before its Tuesday holiday. Australia’s index barely moved, still easing 0.10%, with trading in states including New South Wales and Queensland thin due to holidays. Gold (XAU/USD) and Bitcoin Benefit from Uncertainty Gold prices hit a major milestone on Monday, climbing past the $3,900 an ounce level for the first time ever, driven by several factors. The metal is seeing strong demand as a safe investment due to the weaker Japanese yen and the ongoing US government shutdown. Additionally, growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again are also boosting gold's appeal. Spot gold rose 1% to $3,925.91 per ounce, after setting a new all-time record high of $3,944.63 earlier in the day. US gold futures for December delivery also climbed 1.1% to $3,951.60. Meanwhile, Bitcoin was trading around $123,600 after hitting $125,653.32 on Sunday. Many experts are calling the move into both gold and cryptocurrencies the "debasement trade" meaning investors are using them to protect their wealth against excessive government spending and political instability. European Session - Mixed as French Stocks Drag European stock markets were a little quiet on Monday, with the main STOXX 600 index dipping 0.1% after briefly touching a new record high earlier in the day. The index is cooling off slightly after a very strong week last week, where it gained over 2.8%. French stocks lagged behind the rest of Europe, falling 0.7% after the Prime Minister named a new finance minister, Roland Lescure. This political change caused Eurozone banks to dip 0.6%, led by major French lenders like Societe Generale, Credit Agricole, and BNP Paribas. However, losses for the overall market were limited by strong gains in a few sectors. Oil and gas stocks rose 0.8% because oil prices climbed after the OPEC+ group announced a smaller production increase for November than expected. Technology stocks also advanced 0.5%, with heavyweight company ASML up 1.6%. In company news, French kitchenware maker SEB fell sharply by 22.3% after cutting its sales and profit forecast for the year. Separately, the UK's luxury carmaker Aston Martin dropped 6.8% after warning that its full-year loss would be larger than analysts predicted. On the FX front, the Japanese yen saw a dramatic drop on Monday, hitting its biggest one-day slide against the US dollar in five months. The yen sank 1.9% to trade at 150.35 per dollar, completely wiping out its gains from the last two months. Even more notably, the yen fell 1.7% against the euro to 176.19, reaching its weakest level since the euro was created. With many Asian markets closed for holidays, trading activity was slow. The US dollar index remained mostly steady at 98.083 after recent losses. The euro slipped slightly by 0.2% against the dollar, following news that the French Prime Minister named a new finance minister, a move that political rivals quickly criticized. The New Zealand dollar (kiwi) recovered from earlier losses to trade flat, ending its six-day winning streak ahead of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's meeting on Wednesday. The RBNZ is expected to cut its key interest rate by 0.25%. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar was up 0.1% early on, trading at $0.6603. The British pound was down 0.2% on the day at $1.3450, and the offshore Chinese yuan was slightly weaker at 7.1456 per dollar. Currency Power Balance Source: OANDA Labs The group of oil producers known as OPEC+ (which includes OPEC, Russia, and others) announced on Sunday that it will increase its oil production starting in November by a relatively small amount: 137,000 barrels per day. They chose this modest increase, which is the same as the increase they approved for October, because they are still worried that there will soon be too much oil available on the market (a "supply glut"). Overall this year, the group has significantly increased its production targets by more than 2.7 million barrels per day, which is about 2.5% of the world's total oil demand. This change in strategy, after several years of cutting production, is intended to help the group win back market share that it previously lost to competitors, such as US shale oil companies. Source: LSEG Oil prices went up by about 1% on Monday. Specifically, Brent crude rose 1% to $65.20 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed 1.1% to $61.54 a barrel. However, any further price gains will likely be limited because the overall forecast for demand is still weak. Economic Calendar and Final Thoughts Looking at the economic calendar, the European session will bring a few data releases none of which are expected to have a high impact in nature. ECB speakers will attract more interest, starting with today’s speech by President Christine Lagarde. News from the weekend shows that there has been very little progress toward ending the US government shutdown, which means more delays in official government economic reports. Because most data releases are paused, this will likely be another unusual week for markets, with traders paying extra attention to other major financial news. In general, the longer the shutdown lasts, the more it could put pressure on the US dollar. However, the dollar has held up quite well so far. This suggests that the market now requires extremely negative US economic news before traders are willing to bet heavily against the dollar. For more information on the week ahead, read Markets Weekly Outlook - Navigating the US Shutdown & Global Trends as Equity Markets Continue to Soar For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - DAX Index From a technical standpoint, the DAX index has pulled back to the top of the channel it broke out of last week. This sets the index up for a potential 900 point rally to the upside. Given that global equities have started the week on the front foot, European equities are lagging which could bode well for the DAX if price can hold above the 24200 level in the early part of the week. Immediate upside resistance for now rests at 24500 before the 24665 swing high from July 10 comes into focus. A move to the downside will face support at 24200 before the confluence area around 24000 comes into focus. DAX Index Daily Chart, October 6, 2025 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

A recent interview with European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde points to a rather wait-and-see stance from the regulator, which lately has not been much help to the euro's growth. Lagarde stated that she is satisfied with the current policy parameters, as inflation in the eurozone overall remains stable. "We are in a good position, and we need things to stay that way," she said in the interview. In her view, this outcome is the result of coordinated actions by the European Central Bank, member state governments, and structural reforms aimed at strengthening competitiveness and improving economic productivity. Above all, price stability allows the central bank to maintain a moderately accommodative monetary stance without resorting to sharp changes in rates, which in turn supports investment growth and consumer demand. However, Lagarde stressed that "stability" does not mean the absence of risks. She drew attention to potential pressures from energy markets, changes in the global trade landscape, and possible geopolitical shocks that could trigger a surge in price expectations. In this regard, she called for stronger monitoring of inflation indicators and for maintaining a flexible communication strategy capable of quickly responding to any deviations from the target level. Although policymakers cut interest rates eight times during the year, economists now forecast that rates will remain unchanged until the end of 2025. Inflation has stabilized at the ECB's target of 2%, although it did edge slightly higher last month. "We do not expect significant fluctuations in inflation," Lagarde said. "We must do whatever is necessary to fulfill our mandate." Speaking about the economy, Lagarde noted that some eurozone countries suffered more and are recovering more slowly. "Nevertheless, I would say that the eurozone as a whole has shown greater resilience than expected," she added. This assessment is supported by data showing that, despite uneven growth rates, the region's overall GDP figures are fairly solid. In particular, countries with greater fiscal flexibility were able to adapt budgetary tools more quickly to new market realities, while more vulnerable economies continue to struggle with the lingering effects of the energy crisis and structural imbalances. Lagarde emphasized that a key factor in resilience is the consistency between central bank and national government policies. Coordinated lending programs aimed at supporting small and medium-sized enterprises, combined with reforms in market competition, are contributing not only to employment stabilization but also to productivity growth. "We have the tools, we have the capacity, and we have the will," said Lagarde. Christine Lagarde dismissed suggestions that she might have ambitions to become the next President of France. "I think it's a terrible job, and I believe you have to be programmed in some way for it, but I don't think that's my case," she said. It is worth recalling that Lagarde's non-renewable eight-year term ends in October 2027. Emmanuel Macron's term as President of France ends in the same year, albeit several months earlier. "That doesn't mean I don't want to serve my country, it doesn't mean I don't want to serve Europe, it doesn't mean I'll be selfish the day I resign, but I think it's an exhausting job, and you have to be a little crazy to want to do it," she added. Current Technical Picture for EUR/USD At the moment, buyers need to focus on reclaiming the 1.1745 level. Only then will there be a chance to test 1.1790. From there, the pair could climb to 1.1820, but doing so without support from major players will be quite difficult. The ultimate upward target is 1.1845. In the case of a decline, I expect significant buyer activity only around the 1.1710 level. If there is no demand there, it would be reasonable to wait for a retest of the 1.1680 low or consider opening long positions from 1.1650. Current Technical Picture for GBP/USD For pound buyers, the key is to overcome the nearest resistance at 1.3450. Only then will they be able to aim for 1.3500, above which further progress will be rather difficult. The ultimate upward target is the 1.3555 level. In case of a decline, the bears will attempt to take control of 1.3400. If they succeed, a breakout of that range would deal a serious blow to the bulls' positions and push GBP/USD down to 1.3365, with the prospect of extending the move to 1.3325. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trend Analysis (Fig. 1). On Monday, from the 1.3478 level (Friday's daily candle close), the market may begin a downward move targeting 1.3405 – a historical support level (blue dotted line). When testing this level, the price may possibly begin an upward move toward 1.3416 – the 23.6% retracement level (blue dotted line). Fig. 1 (Daily chart). Comprehensive Analysis: Indicator analysis – down;Fibonacci levels – down;Volumes – down;Candlestick analysis – down;Trend analysis – up;Bollinger Bands – down;Weekly chart – down.Overall conclusion: Downward trend. Alternative scenario: From the 1.3478 level (Friday's daily candle close), the price may begin a downward move targeting 1.3389 – the 85.4% retracement level (red dotted line). When testing this level, a possible corrective upward move may occur toward 1.3405 – a historical resistance level (blue dotted line). The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

On Monday, from the 1.1741 level (Friday's daily candle close), the market may begin a downward move targeting 1.1685 – the 14.6% retracement level (red dotted line). Upon reaching this level, a possible upward move may occur toward 1.1689 – a historical resistance level (blue dotted line). Fig. 1 (Daily chart). Comprehensive Analysis: Indicator analysis – down;Fibonacci levels – down;Volumes – down;Candlestick analysis – down;Trend analysis – up;Bollinger Bands – down;Weekly chart – down.Overall conclusion: Downward trend. Alternative scenario: From the 1.1741 level (Friday's daily candle close), the price may begin a downward move targeting 1.1655 – the 50% retracement level (blue dotted line). Upon reaching this level, a possible upward move may occur toward 1.1685 – the 14.6% retracement level (red dotted line). The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Even though Bitcoin reached a new all-time high over the weekend, crossing above the $125,700 mark, Swissblock reports record-breaking BTC outflows from exchanges. The last time such a large outflow was observed was in December 2022. However, at that time, Bitcoin was at its bottom near $15,000. Now, the situation is the opposite—it is trading near its all-time high. This paradox requires deeper analysis. Clearly, Bitcoin holders are not in a rush to take profits despite favorable market conditions. Instead, they see BTC as a long-term asset and prefer to store it off-exchange, in cold wallets. This behavior indicates confidence in further growth. Another possible explanation is the growing adoption of Bitcoin by institutional investors, as seen in continued large inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have been the main driver of the market in recent times. Large players consider Bitcoin a component of a long-term investment portfolio and tend to avoid speculative trading. Finally, the psychological factor should not be overlooked. Faith in "digital gold" is so strong that even at all-time highs, many investors prefer to hold BTC, expecting even higher prices. This FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) effect may be supporting the uptrend, regardless of objective economic factors. In any case, the outflow of BTC from exchanges is considered a strong bullish signal and suggests that the rally in cryptocurrency prices may be far from over. According to Glassnode, the supply of BTC on exchanges has dropped to a six-year low. Back in 2019, a bull rally started from these levels. As mentioned earlier, a declining exchange supply usually signals that investors are less willing to sell their assets, which in turn creates scarcity and drives prices higher. However, in 2019, those indicators appeared after a major correction in BTC. Today, BTC is at its historical peak, and what happens next is unknown. Either way, the observation itself deserves attention. Trading recommendations: For the technical picture on Bitcoin, buyers are currently targeting a return to the $125,500 level, which opens a direct path to $127,700. From there, it is only a short distance to $130,200. The furthest target is the area around $131,400—breaking through this level would confirm further strength in the bull market. In case of a decline in Bitcoin, buyers are expected at the $123,000 level. If the instrument falls back below that area, BTC could quickly drop toward the $120,900 zone. The most distant support level is around $119,100. As for the technical picture on Ethereum, a clear consolidation above $4,616 opens a direct path to $4,697. The furthest upside target is the maximum near $4,784—breaking through this level would confirm continued bullish momentum and renewed interest from buyers. If Ethereum declines, buyers are expected at $4,533. A return of the price below this area could quickly push ETH down to around $4,432. The furthest downside target will be the $4,331 area. What we see on the chart: - Red lines indicate support and resistance zones where either a price slowdown or sharp movement is expected; - Green line represents the 50-day moving average; - Blue line represents the 100-day moving average; - Light green line represents the 200-day moving average. A crossover or price test of these moving averages typically either halts the trend or generates market momentum. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin .cwp-coin-chart svg path { stroke-width: 0.65 !important; } Bitcoin BTC $123,433.02 0.98% Bitcoin BTC Price $123,433.02 0.98% /24h Volume in 24h $49.65B Price 7d Read The Full Article Here 56 minutes ago Hong Kong SFC Chief Julia Leung Secures New 3-Year Term as City Expands Crypto Regulation By Fatima Bloomberg reports that Julia Leung, CEO of Hong Kong’s Securities and Futures Commission (SFC), is poised to receive a new three-year term as head of the regulator. Since taking the helm in 2023, Leung has overseen a surge in IPO activity, tightened regulatory oversight, and pushed expanded frameworks for crypto assets. Her continued leadership signals Hong Kong’s ambition to reinforce its role as a major global trading hub while advancing digital asset regulation. The post [LIVE] Crypto News Today, October 6 – Bitcoin USD Price $124K, Is XRP Finally Ready To Hit $4? BNB Sets New ATH: Best Crypto To Buy? appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

Last Friday, US stock indices ended mixed. The S&P 500 rose by 0.01%, while the Nasdaq 100 fell by 0.28%. The industrial Dow Jones jumped by 0.51%. On Friday, the tech rally slowed, pulling back from record highs. Optimism around artificial intelligence was dented by warnings from US President Donald Trump directed at Hamas and signs of economic weakness amid the ongoing US government shutdown. The yield on 10-year bonds, which sets the range for borrowing costs in the US, dropped by more than five basis points. Shares of Palantir Technologies Inc. were among the leading decliners, falling by 7.5% after reports of significant problems in the communication system. Despite weakening at the end of the day, the S&P 500 index posted a slight gain, maintaining its longest winning streak since July. President Trump warned of severe consequences if Hamas does not agree to his plan for ending the war in the Gaza Strip. Shortly before the close of the New York markets, Hamas agreed to some of these terms, including the release of hostages, before the Sunday deadline. ISM services data published Friday showed that the US services sector stalled in September, as business activity declined for the first time since the start of the pandemic and orders barely grew. This is cause for concern, as the service sector is a vital driver of the US economy, accounting for a significant share of GDP and employment. The slowdown in business activity may be attributed to several factors, including high interest rates, elevated inflation, and weakening consumer demand. Higher borrowing costs pressure businesses, while rising prices cut consumers' disposable incomes, negatively affecting demand for services. Despite disappointing ISM data, it is important to note that the services sector overall remains healthy. All of this instills confidence among swap traders that the Fed will cut rates by another quarter point in October, despite the absence of labor market data. Last week, Federal Reserve officials were divided on how much further borrowing costs need to be cut after reducing the base interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point last month. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee reiterated his view that policymakers should proceed cautiously when lowering rates, while Fed Governor Steven Miran, who advocated for a more significant cut in September, stated he would revise his view on inflation if housing prices unexpectedly surge. In the commodity markets, oil prices fell below $61 per barrel ahead of the upcoming OPEC+ supply decision, although crude prices did rise on Friday after President Trump's warning regarding the Gaza Strip. Gold posted a confident seventh consecutive weekly gain, supported by central bank purchases amid lower US interest rates and persistent inflation concerns. As for the technical picture of the S&P 500, the main task for buyers today will be to break through the nearest resistance level of $6,743. This would help trigger further upside and open the possibility for a move to the next level at $6,756. No less of a priority for bulls will be maintaining control over the $6,769 mark, which would strengthen buyer positions. In the event of a downward move amid waning risk appetite, buyers must assert themselves around the $6,727 area. A break below this would quickly send the instrument back to $6,711 and open the way to $6,697. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin has reached a new all-time high, hitting $125,710 over the weekend. Ethereum also rose, though not as significantly. This explosive growth marks the culmination of several weeks of steady accumulation by big players in support of the broader uptrend. A key driver behind the rally is growing global awareness of the instability of fiat currencies, with investors turning to BTC as digital insurance against fiat devaluation. Bitcoin's new high reflects a broader awakening and increasing trust in a new monetary system. This isn't just hype around another tech breakthrough, but rather a fundamental revaluation of financial principles. As the pioneer of decentralized currencies, Bitcoin offers an alternative to traditional state-controlled monetary systems, which are increasingly viewed as opaque and vulnerable to manipulation. The surge to new highs demonstrates rising investor awareness of the need to diversify assets and seek tools that can protect wealth from inflation and political instability. The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has become yet another reason for global investors to view Bitcoin not only as a profit-making vehicle but also as a long-term capital preservation asset. I will continue to rely on major pullbacks in both Bitcoin and Ethereum as buying opportunities, assuming the medium-term bull market remains intact. Below are short-term trading scenarios for both assets. Bitcoin Buy ScenariosScenario 1: I plan to buy Bitcoin today at the entry zone around $124,400, targeting growth toward $125,700. At $125,700, I will exit the long position and open a sell trade on a bounce. Before entering a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is in positive territory. Scenario 2: An alternative buy setup is from the lower support at $123,600, if no market reaction follows a break below, with targets back at $124,400 and $125,700. Sell ScenariosScenario 1: I plan to sell Bitcoin today at the $123,600 level, targeting a drop to $122,200. Around $122,200, I will exit the short and open a long position on a bounce. Before selling on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is in negative territory. Scenario 2: A sell opportunity may also occur from around $124,400, if the market fails to break through upward. Target zones would be $123,600 and $122,200. Ethereum Buy ScenariosScenario 1: I plan to buy Ethereum today at $4,581, targeting a move up to $4,639. Around $4,639, I will exit the long position and sell on a bounce. Before entering on a breakout, confirm that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is positive. Scenario 2: A buy opportunity may arise at $4,536 if the market does not react after a break below. In this case, I will target a return to $4,581 and $4,639. Sell ScenariosScenario 1: I plan to sell Ethereum at $4,536, aiming for a drop to $4,466. I will exit the short and look to buy on a bounce at that level. Before entry, verify that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is in negative territory. Scenario 2: I will also consider selling from $4,581 if the market fails to sustain a breakout, with targets at $4,536 and $4,466. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

While the Bitcoin price seems to have deviated completely from the four-year cycle that dictated the previous bull and bear markets, there are still some similarities that remain that suggest that it could still play out in a similar way. The major similarity that has emerged is the formation of a bearish crab pattern back in 2021, and now, the same pattern has reappeared. Thus, taking a look at the direction of the 2021 formation could give an insight into where the Bitcoin price is headed next from here. The Pattern That Triggered The Bitcoin Price Explosion In an analysis, crypto analyst Weslad was the one who pointed out that the Bearish Crab Pattern had returned, and this was formed on the daily chart as well. Interestingly, the current formation looks eerily similar to the way it formed back in 2021, suggesting that the resulting trend could play out the same. Back in 2021, when the Bearish Crab Pattern came up, the result was a price explosion that sent the Bitcoin price toward its $69,000 all-time high. This “Blow-off top” rally is usually the last rally in a bull market, and its end often signals the start of the next bear market. With this pattern, though, there are a number of targets to watch out for that could show where the price is headed next. The first of these is that the Bitcoin price would need to complete a daily close above the $124,545 level, and this is known as the Activation Trigger. Next in line is what Weslad refers to as the “Buy The Dip Zone”. This would be the ideal price range to enter Bitcoin in the case of a retrace, and this lies between $118,000 and $120,000. A dip toward these levels is nothing to worry about, as it means that the bulls are still in control. Both of the zones outlined above, if held, would see the Bitcoin price continue its bullish rally. If the final, explosive leg does play out as it did back in 2017-2021, then the Crab pattern suggests that the Bitcoin price will at least go to $136,000, with an extended target of $147,000, and the possibility that it goes further toward $160,000. However, the final target is the bearish one that could send the Bitcoin price crashing back downward, and it lies at $107,000. According to the crypto analyst, a break below this level would invalidate the entire bullish thesis, calling it the “line in the sand.” Weslad explains that “The invalidation level at $107K is crucial. A break below there means the setup is broken, and we must re-assess.”

What's fueling the growth of the U.S. stock market? The S&P 500 continues to shrug off concerns, including rising valuations, the government shutdown, and even political unpredictability. The broad-based stock index just posted its 31st record high this year. Despite the unpredictable nature of Donald Trump, investors maintain a strong belief that the U.S. president will do everything within his power to support the markets. Additionally, there is the Federal Reserve's monetary easing cycle and the boom in artificial intelligence. Democrats and Republicans remain at a stalemate. Neither side seems willing to compromise and restore the full functioning of the U.S. government. The shutdown will likely continue for at least another week. Historically, during the last 20 shutdowns, the S&P 500 has tended to rise. However, if we exclude 2018—a year when the index surged more than 10%—the average performance during shutdowns actually turns negative. S&P 500's Historical Response to Government Shutdowns The higher the S&P 500 climbs, the more uneasy the bulls get. The most recent warning came from Goldman Sachs. The bank's leadership noted that they would not be surprised if the S&P 500 spends the next two years moving sideways, especially after the relentless rally of 2023–2025. The current environment bears resemblance to the dot-com bubble, with the P/E ratio once again hovering around 23. Still, market optimism is plentiful. Bulls argue that warnings of a tech bubble have circulated since the summer of 2022—and yet, artificial intelligence continues to push the S&P 500 to new heights. Everything is relative, though. While the S&P 500 has risen 14% year-to-date, its Asian counterpart, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index, has increased by approximately 22%. Moreover, most Bloomberg analysts believe the Asia-Pacific region will continue to outperform the U.S. Key risks for the S&P 500, as identified by experts, include: elevated valuations, the negative impact of tariffs on corporate earnings, and high market concentration in a small number of large-cap stocks. Forecasts for S&P 500 and MSCI Asia Pacific History shows that outperformance of international indices doesn't always lead to immediate capital outflows from the U.S. to Asia or Europe. Most foreign investors stay in the world's largest and most liquid equity market—they simply hedge their currency risks. A typical example was the EuroStoxx 600 outperforming the S&P 500 in the first half of the year. No trend lasts forever—regardless of its strength. Corrections are inevitable. But given how quickly investors have learned to buy every dip in the S&P 500, it's clear that it will take a much stronger catalyst to trigger a true pullback in the index. From a technical perspective, there's little reason to doubt the S&P 500's upward momentum on the daily chart. Key support lies around the fair value at 6650. As long as the price remains above this level, buying the dips toward the previously mentioned targets at 6800 and 6920 remains the preferred strategy. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Japanese YenThe test of the 147.45 price level occurred just as the MACD indicator began rising from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for buying the dollar. This resulted in a minor rise of the pair by about 10 pips. The yen fell by 300 pips against the U.S. dollar on the news that Sanae Takaichi would become the new Prime Minister of Japan. Her plans for economic stimulus and her commitment to accommodative monetary policy triggered a sharp sell-off in the yen on the currency markets. The market appears to view her election as a signal that Abenomics—the policy of aggressive fiscal stimulus and low interest rates—will continue. Investors are concerned that while such policies may support short-term growth, they could lead to rising inflation and further long-term weakening of the yen. It is clear that in the near term, the yen's performance will largely depend on the new government's concrete actions and the tone of the Bank of Japan. If Takaichi confirms her commitment to large-scale stimulus and the BoJ continues to downplay rising inflation, downward pressure on the yen is expected to persist. Today, I will primarily rely on executing Scenarios 1 and 2. Buy ScenariosScenario 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at the entry point near 150.35 (indicated by the green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward 151.02 (represented by the thicker green line). Around 151.02, I plan to close long positions and consider selling in the opposite direction, expecting a correction of 30 to 35 pips. The best time to return to buying the pair is after pullbacks or deeper dips in USD/JPY. Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise. Scenario 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price tests the 150.06 level twice while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This setup will limit the downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rally to the opposite levels of 150.35 and 151.02 can be expected. Sell ScenariosScenario 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after a confirmed break below the 150.06 level (red line on the chart), which may spark a sharp decline. The primary target for sellers will be the 149.70 level, where I plan to exit the trade and immediately consider opening a long position in the opposite direction, targeting a rebound of 20 to 25 pips. It is preferable to sell from higher levels. Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline. Scenario 2: I will also consider selling USD/JPY if two consecutive tests of the 150.35 level occur while MACD is in the overbought zone. This would limit the upside potential and trigger a reversal to the downside. A drop toward 150.06 and 149.70 may be expected. What's on the Chart:Thin green line – entry price where the instrument can be boughtThick green line – target price where Take Profit can be placed or profits secured, since further growth is unlikely above this levelThin red line – entry price where the instrument can be soldThick red line – target price where Take Profit can be placed or profits secured, since further decline is unlikely below this levelMACD Indicator – use overbought and oversold zones when entering the marketImportant for Beginner TradersBeginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when entering the market. It is best to stay out of trades just before the release of major economic reports to avoid sudden volatility. If you do decide to trade during economic news releases, always use stop-loss orders to limit potential losses. Failing to use stop losses can result in a complete loss of the trading account, especially if money management is not applied and trades are made in large volumes. Remember that successful trading requires a clear and well-defined plan—just like the one outlined above. Making impulsive decisions based on the current market behavior is a losing strategy for any intraday trader. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the British PoundThe test of the 1.3465 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had risen significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upside potential. A second test of 1.3465, while the MACD was in overbought territory, provided an entry point for a sell trade according to Scenario 2; however, no major decline in the pair occurred afterward. The British pound responded with solid growth to the news that the U.S. ISM Services PMI had returned to the 50-point area. This morning, expectations for the UK Construction PMI are not optimistic, which may limit the upside potential of the pair. Additionally, a public speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is scheduled. These factors could apply moderate downward pressure on the pound amid remaining uncertainty surrounding the UK's economic outlook. Weak construction PMI data would highlight challenges in the industry related to supply shortages, rising costs, and sluggish demand. This could deepen fears of a looming recession and prompt the Bank of England to adopt a more dovish monetary policy stance. Bailey's speech will be closely monitored for hints on upcoming central bank decisions. A cautious tone and emphasis on economic risks could revise expectations regarding rate cuts and, in turn, weigh on the pound. Today, I will focus on executing Scenario 1 and Scenario 2. Buy ScenariosScenario 1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching the entry point at 1.3451 (indicated by the green line on the chart), targeting growth toward 1.3481 (represented by the thicker green line). Around 1.3481, I plan to exit the long position and initiate a short position in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 pip pullback. Buying can only be considered if strong fundamental data is released. Important: Before entering a long trade, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and starting to rise. Scenario 2: I also plan to buy the pound today if two consecutive tests of the 1.3425 level occur while the MACD is in an oversold zone. This setup would limit downside potential and result in a reversal to the upside. A rise toward the 1.3451 and 1.3481 levels can be expected. Sell ScenariosScenario 1: I plan to sell the pound today after a confirmed break below the 1.3425 level (red line on the chart), which could trigger a swift decline. My target is 1.3398, where I intend to exit the trade and open a long position in the opposite direction, looking for a 20–25 pip bounce. Pound sellers will look to build on any opportunity. Important: Before entering a short trade, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just starting to decline. Scenario 2: I also plan to sell the pound today if two consecutive tests of the 1.3451 level occur while MACD is in overbought territory. This setup would limit further upside potential and trigger a reversal to the downside. A decline toward 1.3425 and 1.3398 can be expected. What's on the Chart:Thin green line – entry price where the instrument can be boughtThick green line – target price where Take Profit can be placed or profits secured, since further growth is unlikely above this levelThin red line – entry price where the instrument can be soldThick red line – target price where Take Profit can be placed or profits secured, since further decline is unlikely below this levelMACD Indicator – use overbought and oversold zones when entering the marketImportant for Beginner TradersBeginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when entering the market. It is best to stay out of trades just before the release of major economic reports to avoid sudden volatility. If you do decide to trade during economic news releases, always use stop-loss orders to limit potential losses. Failing to use stop losses can result in a complete loss of the trading account, especially if money management is not applied and trades are made in large volumes. Remember that successful trading requires a clear and well-defined plan—just like the one outlined above. Making impulsive decisions based on the current market behavior is a losing strategy for any intraday trader. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the EuroThe test of the 1.1732 level occurred at a time when the MACD indicator had moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the downside potential of the pair. For this reason, I did not sell the euro. The release of ISM data showing a decline in U.S. services sector activity to the borderline level of 50 raised concerns among market participants but did not trigger a large-scale drop in the dollar. Most likely, the market was already prepared for such a development. The ISM index nearing such a critical level reflects the general trend of slowing economic growth in the U.S., so an interest rate cut in October now appears to be the most likely scenario from the Federal Reserve. Today will be packed with key events that could have a significant impact on the euro. The spotlight will be on the release of the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index, retail sales data, and a speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde. The Sentix index offers insight into the current state and future outlook of the Eurozone economy from the perspective of investors. A reading above zero reflects optimism, while a reading below zero indicates a pessimistic sentiment. Retail sales data help assess the strength of consumer spending, one of the main drivers of economic growth. A decline in retail sales may signal a slowdown in economic expansion and potentially lead to a revision of the ECB's monetary policy stance. However, keep in mind these figures come with a two-month delay, so they are unlikely to have a substantial effect on traders' plans. The main event of the day will be Lagarde's speech. Her comments will shape market expectations for the ECB's future actions. Traders will be paying close attention to clues about possible interest rate changes. However, based on her recent interviews, significant new policy revelations are unlikely in the near term. Today, I plan to rely mainly on the execution of Scenarios 1 and 2. Buy ScenariosScenario 1: Buying the euro is possible if the price reaches the 1.1721 level (indicated by the green line on the chart), with the goal of a rise toward 1.1746. Around 1.1746, I plan to exit the trade and also consider selling the euro in the opposite direction, anticipating a 30- to 35-pip retracement. Buying should only be considered after the release of strong economic data. Important: Before entering a buy trade, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero level and starting to rise. Scenario 2: Another buying opportunity may arise if the price tests the 1.1697 level twice while MACD is in oversold territory. This will limit the pair's downward momentum and may signal an upside reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1721 and 1.1746 can be expected. Sell ScenariosScenario 1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches the 1.1697 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1674, where I'll exit the position and open a long trade in the opposite direction with a potential move of 20 to 25 pips. A return of bearish pressure can be expected with weak data. Important: Before entering a sell trade, ensure that the MACD is below the zero line and is starting to decline. Scenario 2: I will also consider selling the euro if two consecutive tests of the 1.1721 level occur while MACD is in overbought territory. This will limit the pair's upside potential and likely lead to a reversal to the downside. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.1697 and 1.1674 can be expected. What's on the Chart:Thin green line – entry price where the instrument can be boughtThick green line – target price where Take Profit can be placed or profits secured, since further growth is unlikely above this levelThin red line – entry price where the instrument can be soldThick red line – target price where Take Profit can be placed or profits secured, since further decline is unlikely below this levelMACD Indicator – use overbought and oversold zones when entering the marketImportant for Beginner TradersBeginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when entering the market. It is best to stay out of trades just before the release of major economic reports to avoid sudden volatility. If you do decide to trade during economic news releases, always use stop-loss orders to limit potential losses. Failing to use stop losses can result in a complete loss of the trading account, especially if money management is not applied and trades are made in large volumes. Remember that successful trading requires a clear and well-defined plan—just like the one outlined above. Making impulsive decisions based on the current market behavior is a losing strategy for any intraday trader. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

[XPD/USD] – [Monday, October 06, 2025] With EMA(50) forming a Golden Cross with EMA(200) and the RSI in the Neutral-Bullish area, Palladium has the potential to move higher toward its nearest resistance level today. Key Levels 1. Resistance. 2 : 1303.51 2. Resistance. 1 : 1283.23 3. Pivot : 1260.97 4. Support. 1 : 1240.69 5. Support. 2 : 1218.43 Tactical Scenario Positive Reaction Zone: If the price of Palladium strengthens, breaks above, and closes above 1260.97, it may continue to advance to 1283.23. Momentum Extension Bias: If 1283.23 is breached and closes above it, XPD/USD may try to test 1303.51. Invalidation Level / Bias Revision The upside bias weakens if XPD/USD declines and breaks below 1218.43. Technical Summary EMA(50) : 1267.50 EMA(200): 1263.44 RSI(14) : 56.31 Economic News Release Agenda: There are no economic data releases from the United States, as the government is currently shut down. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

[Natural Gas] – [Monday, October 06, 2025] With all technical analysis data indicating bullishness, from both EMAs forming a Golden Cross to the RSI being in the Neutral-Bullish level, it is quite likely that Natural Gas will continue its upward momentum today. Key Levels 1. Resistance. 2 : 3.507 2. Resistance. 1 : 3.421 3. Pivot : 3.364 4. Support. 1 : 3.278 5. Support. 2 : 3.221 Tactical Scenario Positive Reaction Zone: If #NG strengthens and breaks out and closes above 3.364, it may move to test the 3.421 level. Momentum Extension Bias: If 3.421 is broken and closes above, Natural Gas could continue strengthening up to 3.507. Invalidation Level / Bias Revision The upside bias weakens if Natural Gas weakens and breaks through and closes below 3.221. Technical Summary EMA(50) : 3.387 EMA(200): 3.339 RSI(14) : 62.77 Economic News Release Agenda: Due to the ongoing US government shutdown, there will be no economic data releases tonight. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The U.S. dollar remains under pressure. The main reasons for its weakness include disappointing economic data and the ongoing government shutdown in the U.S. since mid-last week. The decline of the ISM Services PMI to the critical 50-point level caused concern among market participants. However, the market appeared to anticipate such a slowdown, further reinforcing expectations of upcoming monetary policy easing from the Federal Reserve. With the ISM index hovering near contraction territory, the trend of weakening economic growth is becoming clearer. That said, the market's reaction to the data was restrained, as investors are awaiting more precise signals from the Fed. The upcoming FOMC meeting will be crucial in determining the dollar's future trajectory. Today's major focus will be on the following: Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index, Eurozone Retail Sales, and a speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde. These may significantly influence the euro and overall market sentiment: The Sentix Index reflects investor views on the Eurozone's economic outlook. Values above zero indicate optimism, while values below zero indicate pessimism. Retail sales data indicate the strength of consumer demand, a key driver of GDP growth. Weak retail figures may signal slowing economic momentum. Christine Lagarde's comments will likely impact expectations surrounding ECB policy. Recent statements have indicated no change in current monetary policy direction — and that's likely to hold today. Regarding the British pound, UK Construction PMI, and a speech from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey are expected. A weakening PMI figure would point to ongoing industry struggles, including material shortages, price hikes, and decreased demand. Cautious rhetoric from Bailey may suggest reduced confidence in economic performance and lower expectations for holding interest rates steady — potentially weakening the pound. If the reported data closely aligns with economists' expectations, use a Mean Reversion strategy. If the reports sharply exceed or fall short of forecasts, use a Momentum strategy. Momentum Strategy (Breakout):For the EUR/USD pairBuying on a breakout above 1.1743 may lead to euro growth toward the 1.1777 and 1.1817 zones Selling on a breakout below 1.1710 may lead to the euro declining toward the 1.1685 and 1.1650 zones For the GBP/USD pairBuying on a breakout above 1.3457 may lead to pound growth toward the 1.3506 and 1.3556 zones Selling on a breakout below 1.3420 may lead to a decline of the pound toward the 1.3400 and 1.3365 zones For the USD/JPY pairBuying on a breakout above 150.50 may lead to dollar growth toward the 150.76 and 151.10 zones Selling on a breakout below 150.15 may lead to a dollar decline toward the 149.90 and 149.62 zones Mean Reversion Strategy (Pullback): For the EUR/USD pairI will look for sells after a failed breakout above 1.1739 with a return below that level I will look for buys after a failed breakout below 1.1708 with a return above that level For the GBP/USD pairI will look for sells after a failed breakout above 1.3466 with a return below that level I will look for buys after a failed breakout below 1.3429 with a return above that level For the AUD/USD pairI will look for sells after a failed breakout above 0.6620 with a return below that level I will look for buys after a failed breakout below 0.6594 with a return above that level For the USD/CAD pairI will look for sells after a failed breakout above 1.3965 with a return below that level I will look for buys after a failed breakout below 1.3940 with a return above that level The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin is trading around 123,616, bouncing within the bullish trend channel formed on September 26. Bitcoin could continue rising in the coming hours, reaching 8/8 Murray around $125,000 and could even surpass its high and reach +1/8 Murray around 128,125. Conversely, if Bitcoin falls below the 21SMA at 122,243, we could expect a trend reversal, and it could reach 6/8 Murray at 118,750. The eagle indicator on the H4 chart has reached the overbought zone. We believe that Bitcoin below the psychological level of $125,000 could undergo a strong technical correction in the coming days and reach 5/8 Murray around 115,316. Our outlook for Bitcoin is positive, so we will look for buying opportunities above 122,240 in the coming hours. Any pullback and any price above this level will be seen as a signal to continue buying. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com