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Today's renewed breakout above the 50-day SMA, as well as the move beyond horizontal resistance at 147.50 and the round level of 148.00, favors the bulls. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart have just begun to gain positive momentum, confirming the potential for further growth. However, the advance encountered resistance at the round level of 148.00. A decisive break and consolidation above it would expose strong resistance near the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), currently located around 148.70. Sustained strength above this level would allow spot prices to return to the round level of 149.00 and test the monthly high around 149.20. On the other hand, the 147.60–147.50 level near the 50-day SMA protects against immediate downside. A break below it would send USD/JPY toward the round level of 147.00. A convincing breach of this level would expose support at 146.20 or the 100-day SMA before spot prices continue their downward trajectory toward the September low, last seen in July. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD has remained unchanged for several months, which is very encouraging. Even when corrective waves form, the structure's integrity is preserved, allowing for accurate forecasts. Recall that wave structures do not always look like textbook examples. At present, however, the pattern looks very good. The upward segment of the trend continues to develop, while the news background largely does not support the dollar. The trade war initiated by Donald Trump continues. The confrontation with the Fed continues. Market expectations for Fed rate cuts are becoming more dovish. The market's assessment of Trump's first 6–7 months in office is very low, even though Q2 economic growth reached 3%. At the moment, it can be assumed that an impulsive wave 5 is still developing, with potential targets extending as far as the 1.25 area. Inside this wave, the structure is somewhat complex due to the sideways movement observed in the last month. Nevertheless, the first and second waves can be identified. Therefore, I believe the instrument will continue rising, as the impulsive wave is not yet complete. The EUR/USD pair fell by 30 basis points during Friday. This would not be a big deal if the euro had not lost about 80 points on Wednesday and Thursday. A total of 110 points in less than three days is quite a lot, given the news background. Let's be honest: if the market had continued buying the euro after the Fed meeting, would anyone have been surprised? Last week's ECB meeting showed market participants that the regulator does not intend to continue cutting rates. Inflation has effectively been defeated, so the need for further monetary easing could only arise if the CPI falls further below the 2% target. According to Christine Lagarde, a slight increase in inflation is possible in the near term, so easing this year should not be expected. The situation with the Fed is different. This week, the FOMC decided to cut rates, but this was not a one-off concession to market participants and Trump, who in 2025 openly demanded monetary easing. It is only the beginning of a prolonged cycle. Just last week, the market expected two cuts by year-end; now it expects three. Thus, dovish expectations have strengthened, and Jerome Powell, in his regular speech, did not deny that such a scenario is possible. Based on all the above, I see no strong reasons for a significant decline in the pair or for changing the current wave pattern. The presumed wave 3 of 5 has taken on a five-wave structure, so the market may now be forming wave 4 of 5, a corrective wave. Accordingly, I expect the resumption of growth next week. General conclusions. Based on EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward segment of the trend. The wave structure still fully depends on the news background tied to Trump's decisions and the domestic and foreign policy of the new US administration. The targets of the current segment may extend up to the 1.25 level. The news background remains unchanged, so I continue to stay in long positions, despite the first target around 1.1875 (161.8% Fibonacci) already being reached. By year-end, I expect the euro to rise to 1.2245, which corresponds to the 200.0% Fibonacci level. On a smaller scale, the entire upward trend segment is visible. The wave pattern is not the most standard, as corrective waves differ in size. For example, the larger wave 2 is smaller than the internal wave 2 of 3. But this happens. Let me remind you: it is best to identify clear structures on charts rather than tie oneself to every single wave. At present, the upward structure leaves little room for doubt. Key principles of my analysis: Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often bring changes.If you are not confident about the market, it is better not to enter.There can never be 100% certainty about market direction. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

On Friday, the Canadian dollar is gaining against the US dollar, with the USD/CAD pair halting its two-day advance and paring earlier intraday losses, despite a stronger US dollar and weaker retail sales data in Canada. At the time of writing, the pair is trading at 1.3772, pulling back from the day's high of 1.3825, as buyers failed to hold above the psychological 1.3800 level. The US Dollar Index, which measures the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, continues to rebound after the Fed's decision, trying to stay near its daily high, last seen six days ago. According to Statistics Canada, retail sales fell by 0.8% in July compared with the previous month, in line with forecasts. Meanwhile, the June figure was revised upward from 1.5% to 1.6%. Sales excluding autos dropped by 1.2%, exceeding the expected decline of 0.7%, although June was revised from 1.9% to 2.2%. These figures point to weakening domestic demand and raise concerns about consumer spending following strong growth in the second quarter.The release of economic data followed an important central bank decision earlier in the week. The Bank of Canada cut its key rate by 25 basis points to 2.50%. The regulator justified the monetary easing by citing slower economic growth, declining exports, and labor market issues. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem signaled readiness for further cuts if risks intensify. Markets now price in about a 40% chance of a cut at the October 29 meeting and nearly 75% by December. The Federal Reserve also cut its rate by 25 basis points to the 4.00–4.25% range, citing growing concerns over the labor market while maintaining a cautious stance on inflation. According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a cut in October is estimated at 91%, and of another cut in December at nearly 80%. This aligns with the Fed's updated dot plot, which indicates an additional 50 basis points of easing by year-end. However, Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that further action will depend on economic data. As a result, both central banks are moving toward easing policy, but the Fed is acting more cautiously, while the Bank of Canada is taking a more flexible "dovish" stance, given that Canadian inflation is closer to its target level than in the US. From a technical perspective, the Relative Strength Index has moved into negative territory. However, the pair found strong support at the 100-day SMA at 1.3758. Failure to hold this level would push prices toward the monthly low and the round level of 1.3700. On the other hand, if prices manage to return above the psychological 1.3800 level and consolidate there, bulls will aim for the monthly high, facing some resistance along the way. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

A pseudonymous crypto analyst, known as Borovik on X, has released a bold set of three-month predictions for some of the largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization. Taking to the social media platform X, the analyst released a list of projected prices for Bitcoin (BTC), XRP, Dogecoin (DOGE), and other top-ranking cryptocurrencies Ethereum (ETH), Binance Coin (BNB), and Solana (SOL). The predictions show a strongly bullish stance for the coming quarter, though they also keep the current market cap rankings intact among these cryptocurrencies. Very Bullish Predictions For Bitcoin, XRP, And Dogecoin Borovik’s predictions are based on an ultra-bullish outlook for the crypto market that places these cryptocurrencies at top prices before the end of the year. However, the analyst’s prediction doesn’t envision any dramatic overtake among these cryptocurrencies in market cap rankings. Unsurprisingly, Bitcoin is the centerpiece of the analyst’s outlook. According to Borovik, Bitcoin’s price could climb to $194,846.63 within the next three months. That’s an enormous jump from its current spot level around $117,000, representing more than 66% upside. Such a price would lift Bitcoin’s already commanding market capitalization well beyond its current $2.3 trillion to about $3.88 trillion and increase its dominance over the rest of the market. The forecast is equally bullish for XRP and Dogecoin. Borovik set XRP’s three-month target at $5.056 and a market cap of $302 billion. Considering XRP is currently priced around $3.04, this prediction suggests a 66% rally that would see the cryptocurrency trading at new all-time highs. Dogecoin’s target of $0.4465 is no less remarkable, although the analyst doesn’t see it breaking into new all-time highs. The meme coin king is trading around $0.275 today, so the forecast translates to an increase of about 62%. That would drive Dogecoin’s valuation well above $67 billion. Ethereum, BNB, And Solana Complete The Bullish Picture According to the analyst, Ethereum, Solana, and BNB are also expected to rise to new all-time highs before the end of the year. Particularly, the prediction places the Ethereum price at $7,537.60 within the next three months and puts its market cap bordering the trillion-dollar mark at $910 billion. However, the analyst’s projection does not suggest ETH is anywhere close to challenging Bitcoin’s dominance. BNB, which recently made a new all-time high of $1,004 on September 18, was predicted to continue its upward trajectory in the next three months to reach $1,603.05. Solana is one of the standout performers of the past year, and it isn’t surprising that the analyst gave it a three-month target of $392.98. At the time of writing, SOL is trading at $244, and so this prediction implies a gain of roughly 61%. The analyst’s forecasts show an average increase in the range of 60% to 66% for cryptocurrencies across the board before the end of the year.

First and foremost, the wave structure should be considered. Does it show signs of a trend reversal? The answer is simple – no. The British pound has formed another five-wave sequence, after which it moved into a correction. Therefore, wave analysis still forecasts further strengthening of the pound. Perhaps the pound does not have much time left to rise, but this will depend not on UK news, but on US news, since the scale of America's problems is much greater than those in Britain. The pound has been actively declining over the past few days, surprising many in the market. This week the Bank of England and the Fed held meetings, and their outcomes could have pleased buyers—or at least not disappointed them. In short, the Fed has embarked on a course of monetary policy easing. By the end of the year, the US regulator may cut rates twice more, and next year Jerome Powell will leave his post, making way for another of Trump's "own people." Perhaps some other members of the FOMC will "voluntarily" resign or be labeled "fraudsters." Therefore, next year "dovish" expectations may become even stronger. The Bank of England will likely also continue cutting rates over time, but the pace of easing will be much slower than at the Fed. That is why the pound, like the euro, still looks much more attractive than the dollar, and this week's news background should rather have triggered renewed selling of the US currency. For the first time in a long while, most UK statistics did not disappoint, while the bulk of September's US reports could only cause tears and sadness. But on Friday it became known that UK Treasury borrowing in August exceeded all conceivable forecasts. The budget deficit is enormous, and it is unclear how it will be covered. The drafting of next year's budget is just ahead, but there is not enough money, and new loans will have to be taken at fairly high rates. It was precisely market fears regarding the UK budget that reduced demand for the pound at the end of the week, despite generally positive results for the pound from both the BoE and Fed meetings. However, in my view, the pound's decline will be short-lived. In the US, as I have said, the problems are far more serious, and the Fed's "dovish" actions by year-end will outweigh any negativity from the UK. Analysts note that short positions on the dollar continue to increase, so I regard the GBP/USD decline as a corrective wave fully consistent with the current wave structure. Wave structure for EUR/USD: Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward segment of the trend. The wave pattern still entirely depends on the news background tied to Trump's decisions and the domestic and foreign policy of the new US administration. The targets of the current segment may extend as far as the 1.25 level. The news background remains unchanged, so I continue to stay in long positions, despite the first target around 1.1875 (161.8% Fibonacci) having already been reached. By year-end, I expect the euro to rise to 1.2245, corresponding to the 200.0% Fibonacci level. Wave structure for GBP/USD: The wave structure of GBP/USD remains unchanged. We are dealing with an upward impulsive segment of the trend. Under Donald Trump, markets may face numerous shocks and reversals that could significantly affect the wave picture, but for now the working scenario remains intact, and Trump's policy is unchanged. The targets of the upward segment are located around the 261.8% Fibonacci level. At present, I expect the pair to continue rising within wave 5, aiming for 1.4017. Key principles of my analysis: Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often involve changes.If you are not confident about the market, it is better not to enter.There can never be 100% certainty about market direction. Do not forget protective Stop Loss orders.Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The UK is once again sinking under the weight of economic and financial troubles. Recall that the "British drama" began in 2016, when by a margin of several percentage points the British people decided to break off official ties with the European Union and begin building a fully independent United Kingdom. Nearly ten years have passed, and many opinion polls now show that Britons are starting to regret their decision. A trade agreement with the EU was signed with great difficulty, but many problems remain unresolved. One of them is labor supply: earlier, migrants came to the country for high wages and took on low-skilled jobs that Britons themselves were unwilling to do. The economic problems are even more numerous. The post-Brexit economic boom never materialized, and the UK economy has been growing at a sluggish pace—something that could still be attributed to the generally weak growth across the European region. Industrial production continues to decline, inflation is rising again, and the Bank of England is cutting rates while promising a return of the Consumer Price Index to its target. As for political problems, there is no need to list them all. Every prime minister over the past decade has left office prematurely. A couple of years ago, after Boris Johnson stepped down, power shifted to the Labor Party under Keir Starmer, but the change in ruling party has not significantly improved the situation. The country is now trying to put together a budget for 2026, but the process is going very poorly. Revenues are insufficient, expenses are higher, and tax hikes are on the table—something unlikely to please Britons. Tax increases are not only an unpopular economic measure; they are also directly tied to the next elections, where Labor could end up losing. A few weeks ago, the UK faced an unprecedented rise in government bond yields. At that time, the market sold off the pound heavily, anticipating serious problems. Rising bond yields mean fewer investors are interested in UK government bonds. Consequently, higher yields must be offered, which increases the burden on the budget, since the debt still has to be serviced. As a result, the British currency continues to fall regularly because of issues that do not occur in every country and under every government. However, the pound's upward trend does not change, because the scale of the problems in the United States is even greater. For now, the pound's budgetary troubles cannot make market participants turn toward the "alternative" and once-beloved US dollar. Wave structure for EUR/USD: Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues building an upward segment of the trend. The wave pattern still fully depends on the news background tied to Trump's decisions and the foreign and domestic policy of the new US administration. The targets of the current upward segment may extend to the 1.25 level. The news background remains unchanged, therefore I continue to stay in long positions, despite the first target around 1.1875 (161.8% Fibonacci) having already been met. By year-end, I expect the euro to rise to 1.2245, which corresponds to the 200.0% Fibonacci level. Wave structure for GBP/USD: The wave structure of GBP/USD remains unchanged. We are dealing with an upward, impulsive segment of the trend. Under Donald Trump, markets may face many shocks and reversals that could strongly affect the wave structure, but at the moment the working scenario remains intact, and Trump's policy has not changed. The targets of the upward segment are located near the 261.8% Fibonacci level. At present, I expect the pair to continue rising within wave 3 of 5, aiming for 1.4017. Key principles of my analysis: Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are hard to trade and often bring changes.If you are not confident in what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter.There can never be 100% certainty in market direction. Do not forget protective Stop Loss orders.Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trade review and tips for trading the Japanese yen The price test of 147.69 in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving upward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying the dollar. As a result, the pair rose by more than 40 points. In the second half of the day, no US statistics are scheduled, so the market's attention will be on a speech by FOMC member Mary Daly. However, the yen, as is well known, has its own resilience due to the Bank of Japan's long-standing tradition of stable monetary policy. Markets will closely monitor Daly's words, looking for hints of a potential acceleration in Fed rate cuts. Such a signal would certainly become a catalyst for mass dollar selling, pushing investors to seek safer havens—traditionally, the yen. Still, Daly's rhetoric alone will not be decisive. The overall macroeconomic environment in the US and Japan will play the key role. Today's decision by the Bank of Japan to leave rates unchanged clearly disappointed traders who were betting on tighter policy, which will continue to put pressure on the yen in the pair with the dollar. As for intraday strategy, I will rely more on scenarios #1 and #2. Buy signal Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at the entry point around 148.30 (green line on the chart), targeting growth toward 148.93 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 148.93 I will exit the buys and open sells in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point move in the opposite direction). A continuation of the bullish market makes growth likely. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above zero and just starting to rise from it. Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of 147.92, at the moment when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 148.30 and 148.93 can be expected. Sell signal Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after updating the 147.92 level (red line on the chart), which will lead to a quick decline of the pair. The key target for sellers will be 147.29, where I will exit the sells and immediately open buys in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move in the opposite direction). Downward pressure on the pair is unlikely to return today. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below zero and just starting to decline from it. Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of 148.30, at the moment when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 147.92 and 147.29 can be expected. Chart notes: Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument;Thick green line – suggested price for placing Take Profit or manually fixing profit, since further growth above this level is unlikely;Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument;Thick red line – suggested price for placing Take Profit or manually fixing profit, since further decline below this level is unlikely;MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to follow overbought and oversold zones.Important. Beginner traders in the Forex market should be very cautious in making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. And remember: for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trade review and tips for trading the British pound The price test of 1.3524 occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the pound. As a result, the pair fell by more than 25 points. The drop was caused by a sharp increase in public sector borrowing, which threatens the UK's economic outlook and the political career of Rachel Reeves. The surge in government debt, reported at far higher levels than expected, triggered panic among investors. Many economists questioned the government's ability to manage finances effectively, which immediately weighed on the pound sterling. This significantly damaged the standing of Rachel Reeves, who plays a key role in financial policy. The opposition seized the opportunity to accuse the government of incompetence and irresponsibility, using the growing debt as its main argument. In the second half of the day, there are no US statistics scheduled, so the market's focus will be on a speech by FOMC member Mary Daly. Her dovish tone could pressure the dollar, leading to a slight strengthening of the pound. If Daly's rhetoric is perceived as only a temporary deviation from the Fed's general course, the dollar will continue to regain ground. As for intraday strategy, I will rely more on scenarios #1 and #2. Buy signal Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today at the entry point around 1.3504 (green line on the chart), targeting growth toward 1.3564 (thicker green line on the chart). At 1.3564 I will exit the buys and open sells in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point move in the opposite direction. A strong pound rally today is unlikely. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above zero and just starting to rise from it. Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3463, at the moment when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.3504 and 1.3564 can be expected. Sell signal Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound after updating the 1.3463 level (red line on the chart), which will lead to a quick decline of the pair. Sellers' key target will be 1.3379, where I will exit the sells and immediately open buys in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move in the opposite direction). The pound could fall significantly in the second half of the day. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below zero and just starting to decline from it. Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3504, at the moment when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3463 and 1.3379 can be expected. Chart notes: Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument;Thick green line – suggested price for placing Take Profit or manually fixing profit, since further growth above this level is unlikely;Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument;Thick red line – suggested price for placing Take Profit or manually fixing profit, since further decline below this level is unlikely;MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to follow overbought and oversold zones.Important. Beginner traders in the Forex market should be very cautious in making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. And remember: for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

US Equities keep up their positive performance with each of them finishing at or close to their highs, with the Tech-heavy Nasdaq taking the lead yet again. With the most recent Federal Reserve cut and positive acquisition news as seen in yesterday's US Index piece, sentiment is at its highs again. Both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 have yet to break their yesterday highs and it will be interesting to see if they manage to do so towards the daily close or next week. In addition to the PBoC (China's Central Bank) which releases its own rate decision (major support to the economy is expected, traditionally positive for equities), Markets will assist to many FED Members' speeches as the Blackout period is now over, and it will be very interesting to see what they have to offer. Miran is officially the most dovish member with FED Governors Waller and Bowman conceding their seat – Have a look at the busy Sunday to Monday speaker calendar (Check out more on what's to come with our Week Ahead piece, coming up very soon). Central bank speakers on Monday, Marketpulse Economic Calendar. Markets might be overlooking the more balanced-approach from Powell to the future rate cut outlook, as every-optimistic mood keeps pushing equities higher. The Dot Plot did signal some extra 50 bps of easing throughout the end of the year, but the cut wasn't such a dovish one when looking at the details of what Powell said – For now, the US Dollar is the one coming back higher from the decision. You can discover more on this right here. Daily US Equity Heatmap – September 19, 2025 – Source: TradingView The picture is not as impressive as yesterday, but Bulls will always enjoy strong performance from names such as Apple, Oracle and Tesla. A Daily outlook for S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones before taking a closer look Daily Chart Outlook for US Equities – September 19, 2025 – Source: TradingView Read More: GBP outlook as GBP/USD gets rejected from pre-FOMC highsPost-FOMC US dollar surge shifts global markets – DXY outlookGold (XAU) and Silver (XAG) find selling pressure from the post-FOMC stronger US dollar Let's take a look at intraday charts and levels for the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones.Technical outlook and levels for the 3 Main US Indices All three indices are in a seemingly unstoppable move since the beginning of September. Let's try to look at the extent of the moves and potential levels of interest for each index as price discovery continues. S&P 500 4H chart and levels S&P 500 2H Chart , September 19, 2025 – Source: TradingView Watch the middle of the upward channel that will need to be broken to the upside to maintain a more bullish intermediate outlook! Similar as the Dow Jones, the price action looks a bit hesitant at the highs despite a very decent week. S&P 500 Trading Levels: Resistance Levels Daily highs 6,669 (new ATH)Higher timeframe potential resistance between 6,650 and 6,700 level (1.618 from April lows, currently testing)6,700 psychological levelSupport Levels FOMC lows 6,562 and MA 506,490 to 6,512 pivot6,400 Main Support6,210 to 6,235 Main Support (August NFP Lows)Nasdaq 2H chart and levels Nasdaq 2H Chart , September 19, 2025 – Source: TradingView The Nasdaq is actually the only index printing fresh all-time highs today, however the action seems a bit hesitant. A momentum divergence might be showing up on the 2H RSI but looking at the past close, confirmation candles would be required to confirm any action. For now, the mood in tech is positive – Let's see what players do towards the weekly close and next week's open. Nasdaq technical levels of interest Resistance Levels Current daily highs (24,626)Daily Resistance (from August 20 lows) 24,550 to 24,626 (immediate resistance)Potential Resistance 2 fib-Extension (from August lows) 24,800Support Levels Fib-projection now Momentum pivot 24,350Previous ATH zone turning pivot (23,950 to 24,020)23,500 support23,000 Key SupportEarly 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportDow Jones 4H chart and levels Dow Jones 2H Chart , September 19, 2025 – Source: TradingView Price action is still very hesitant to break the upward trendline of the Ascending wedge, and stays one of the biggest limitation to the US index. Watch momentum as the session moves forward. Levels for Dow Jones trading: Resistance Levels Current All-time high and Rising wedge breakout: 46,4251.618 from April correction potential resistance 46,400 to 46,830High of channel and 1.618% Fib of July move 47,000 to 47,160 (potential resistance)Support Levels 46,000 Momentum Pivot and 50-period MA (45,807)45,283 previous significant ATHKey Support/longer-run pivot 45,000Support 44,200 to 44,500Main Support (NFP Lows) 43,000 to 43,750 Safe Trades! Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. 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Trade review and tips for trading the euro The first test of 1.1768 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved far below zero, which limited the pair's downward potential. The second test of 1.1768 coincided with MACD being in the oversold area, which allowed scenario #2 (buy) to materialize, but no significant rally followed. News of a sharper-than-expected decline in German producer prices had a negative impact on the euro. The decline in prices will benefit the country's economy and manufacturers, but that alone is not enough. Other economic indicators also need to show improvement. Against this backdrop, the euro weakened against the US dollar and other major world currencies. In the second half of the day, no US economic reports are scheduled, and attention will be on a speech by FOMC member Mary Daly. Market participants are unlikely to analyze her remarks closely, as the Fed's course toward easing policy by year-end is already priced in. Daly's comments on inflation trends and the outlook for further rate cuts will carry particular weight. However, as noted above, expectations should not be too high. Most likely, she will prefer a cautious and balanced tone, avoiding categorical statements that could trigger market instability. As for intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2. Buy signal Scenario #1: Today, buying the euro is possible at around 1.1764 (green line on the chart) with a target at 1.1834. At 1.1834 I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point move from the entry point. A large euro rally today is unlikely. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above zero and just starting to rise from it. Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1732, at the moment when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.1764 and 1.1834 can be expected. Sell signal Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches 1.1732 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1669, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound). Downward pressure on the pair will persist today. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below zero and just starting to decline from it. Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1764, at the moment when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1732 and 1.1669 can be expected. Chart notes: Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument;Thick green line – suggested price for placing Take Profit or manually fixing profit, since further growth above this level is unlikely;Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument;Thick red line – suggested price for placing Take Profit or manually fixing profit, since further decline below this level is unlikely;MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to follow overbought and oversold zones.Important. Beginner traders in the Forex market should be very cautious in making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. And remember: for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Today, I tried trading the euro and the Australian dollar using the Mean Reversion strategy. With Momentum, I traded only the British pound, for which important data was released. News that producer prices in Germany fell more than expected put pressure on the euro. The Producer Price Index declined by 0.5% month-on-month, exceeding analysts' forecasts. This was the most significant drop. The euro reacted to the news by falling against the US dollar and other major currencies. Investors fear that the drop in producer prices may lead the European Central Bank to adopt a more dovish stance, since there is no point in waiting—the economy needs stimulus. The fall in German producer prices is another sign that the European economy is more or less returning to normal after the record price surge of recent years. The pound also fell against the dollar. The main reason for this decline was an unexpectedly sharp increase in government borrowing, creating serious risks for the country's economic development. The substantial rise in public debt, which turned out to be far above forecast levels, triggered investor concerns. Economists voiced doubts about the authorities' ability to manage finances effectively, which immediately affected the pound's positions. Currency traders, seeking to minimize potential losses, began actively selling the British currency, causing a significant depreciation. There is no US data scheduled for release in the second half of the day, only a speech by FOMC member Mary Daly. However, the potential impact of this event should not be underestimated. Markets will closely monitor her rhetoric, looking for hints about the Fed's future policy. Comments on inflation trends and the outlook for further rate cuts will be particularly relevant. Any statements pointing to a more dovish stance could trigger dollar weakness. In case of strong data, I will rely on the Momentum strategy. If there is no market reaction to the data, I will continue to use the Mean Reversion strategy. Momentum strategy (breakout) for the second half of the day: For EUR/USD Buying on a breakout of 1.1767 may lead to growth toward 1.1806 and 1.1847;Selling on a breakout of 1.1735 may lead to a decline toward 1.1700 and 1.1660.For GBP/USD Buying on a breakout of 1.3510 may lead to growth toward 1.3555 and 1.3605;Selling on a breakout of 1.3475 may lead to a decline toward 1.3445 and 1.3420.For USD/JPY Buying on a breakout of 148.35 may lead to growth toward 148.75 and 149.05;Selling on a breakout of 147.85 may lead to declines toward 146.70 and 146.31.Mean Reversion strategy (pullback) for the second half of the day: For EUR/USD I will look for sales after a failed breakout above 1.1781 and a return below this level;I will look for purchases after a failed breakout below 1.1746 and a return to this level. For GBP/USD I will look for sales after a failed breakout above 1.3521 and a return below this level;I will look for purchases after a failed breakout below 1.3465 and a return to this level. For AUD/USD I will look for sales after a failed breakout above 0.6617 and a return below this level;I will look for purchases after a failed breakout below 0.6589 and a return to this level. For USD/CAD I will look for sales after a failed breakout above 1.3820 and a return below this level;I will look for purchases after a failed breakout below 1.3800 and a return to this level.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

According to recent chart work and on-chain checks, some XRP backers say the token may be gearing up for another big move. Analysts who track past cycles point to patterns that played out in 2017 and 2018 and say similar moves could follow now. XRP Repeats Past Price Cycle Reports have disclosed that XRP broke a long downtrend in March 2017, running from about $0.0055 to roughly $0.40 by May 2017. After that first surge, the token cooled and traded sideways for around six months before shooting to $3.31 in January 2018. According to EtherNasyonal’s charts, the market then entered a long decline and another accumulation phase. One key detail the analyst highlights is the monthly RSI action: it climbed to about 95 during the first run, fell to roughly 68 in the re-accumulation, then topped 90 during the second leg. These RSI moves are used to argue that the market has room to charge again. A New Breakout And A Familiar Story According to reports, XRP’s latest major break came in November 2024 when price moved from about $0.50 and ran to $3.40 by January 2025. After that push, the token consolidated for roughly six months, which some call a re-accumulation phase. EtherNasyonal and other community analysts say XRP has cleared that setup and is poised for the next upward wave. They point to a current 1-month RSI near 68 as a sign of cooling before another possible spike above 90. The bullish price target being tossed around is $10. One community voice summed it up bluntly: “XRP is not dead; it’s loading.” On-Chain Numbers And Wallet Behavior Meanwhile, data from XPMarket’s co-founder Dr. Artur Kirjakulov shows that up to 538,586 XRPL wallets hold 20 XRP each. At a price around $3.1, that 20 XRP equals about $62 per wallet. Those numbers account for about 7.64% of all XRPL wallets, with the ledger now reporting 7,048,872 total addresses. Reports say nearly 11 million XRP appear to sit idle across many of these wallets. That figure is often cited to make the case for constrained supply if more coins stop circulating. Meantime, Ripple Bull Winkle and other supporters point to regulatory clarity, new infrastructure work by Ripple, and the arrival of XRP ETFs as forces that could help price. Featured image from Meta, chart from TradingView

Safe Withdrawal Rate: Income from a $5M–$10M Portfolio Executive Summary A safe withdrawal rate is a disciplined way to turn savings into steady retirement income while keeping the risk of running out low. For $5 million to $10 million portfolios, even a 0.5% shift changes annual income by roughly $25,000 to $50,000; it takes about a 1% change on $10 million to move income by six figures. Additionally, this guide defines the safe withdrawal rate, shows practical ranges, and gives you a simple playbook to use with your advisor. In short, start with a sensible range, then refine it with rules you can actually follow. What a Safe Withdrawal Rate Really Means A safe withdrawal rate (SWR) estimates an inflation-adjusted annual withdrawal that aims for a low chance of depletion over a planning horizon of about 30 years (often 25–35 years). “Safe” isn’t a guarantee; it’s a probability based on assumptions about returns, inflation, and how you’ll behave when markets get choppy. The familiar “4% rule” starts at 4% of your initial portfolio and increases that dollar amount with inflation each year. Many higher-net-worth retirees tweak that baseline for risk tolerance, taxes, spending flexibility, and legacy goals, and the takeaway is that SWR is a framework, not a promise. Key Terms in Plain English Real vs. nominal: Real means inflation-adjusted; nominal ignores inflation. Sequence-of-returns risk: Poor early returns can hurt long-term sustainability even if averages improve later. Guardrails: Pre-set rules to raise or trim withdrawals when markets move. Time horizon: How long your plan must last (often 25 to 35+ years). How to Choose a Safe Withdrawal Rate There’s no single magic number. Instead, pick a range, then narrow it based on your goals and flexibility. A common starting point is 3%–4% for a 30-year horizon, with recent research placing a baseline near ~3.7% for new retirees. However, higher rates can still work when you use flexible spending rules and markets cooperate, and in practice you should aim for a number you can stick with through good and bad years. Five Questions to Pin Down Your Rate Is preserving principal critical? If legacy is a top goal, lean lower (3.0%–3.5%). How flexible are your expenses? If you can pause or scale discretionary items, a higher start (4.0%–4.5%) may be reasonable. What is your time horizon? Longer horizons usually justify a more conservative safe withdrawal rate. What’s your tax picture? After-tax income depends on account types and brackets. How do you handle volatility? If swings cause stress, favor the low end and add guardrails. Answer these questions honestly and your “safe” number will come into focus. If you’re torn, start at the conservative end and let guardrails do the adjusting. Safe Withdrawal Rate: Dollars and Sense for $5M–$10M Therefore, small percentage changes create big dollar swings. The table below shows starting, inflation-adjusted withdrawals before taxes when applying a classic SWR approach to $5 million and $10 million portfolios. Use it as a quick reality check on how the math translates to lifestyle. Starting SWR Annual Income @ $5M Monthly Income @ $5M Annual Income @ $10M Monthly Income @ $10M 3.0% $150,000 $12,500 $300,000 $25,000 3.5% $175,000 $14,583 $350,000 $29,167 4.0% $200,000 $16,667 $400,000 $33,333 4.5% $225,000 $18,750 $450,000 $37,500 5.0% $250,000 $20,833 $500,000 $41,667 Ultimately, consider these figures starting points. Your spendable income shifts with taxes, healthcare costs, charitable giving, and the asset mix that supports your safe withdrawal rate. The key is matching the number to your real life, not the other way around. After-Tax Reality Check (Illustrative) Effective tax rates vary widely. Therefore, the sample below shows how the same SWR translates to rough after-tax income under three hypothetical combined effective rates. It’s a reminder that gross and net can tell very different stories. Starting SWR (on $5M) Gross Annual After-Tax @ 20% After-Tax @ 25% After-Tax @ 30% 3.5% $175,000 $140,000 $131,250 $122,500 4.0% $200,000 $160,000 $150,000 $140,000 4.5% $225,000 $180,000 $168,750 $157,500 Note: These are illustrative numbers only. Your effective rate depends on state taxes, deductions, charitable strategies, and how withdrawals are sourced (Roth, traditional, or taxable accounts). Therefore, plan around your actual brackets, not averages. Asset Allocation That Supports a Safe Withdrawal Rate Your safe withdrawal rate depends on how you invest. Historically, pairing moderate equity exposure with high-quality bonds and adequate cash has supported sustainable withdrawals. Too conservative and inflation may eat your purchasing power; too aggressive and drawdowns can force painful cuts. Consequently, the goal is balance you can live with. A Practical Three-Bucket Structure A three-bucket setup (cash for 1–3 years of withdrawals, high-quality bonds for intermediate needs, and diversified equities for growth) is a common framework. Moreover, exact buffer sizes should match your spending, risk tolerance, and expected yields. Done well, this layout gives you time for stocks to recover while you draw from cash and bonds during stress. Bucket 1: Cash (1–3 years): Funds near-term withdrawals and reduces pressure to sell in down markets. Bucket 2: Bonds (5–10 years): High-quality fixed income for stability and predictable income. Bucket 3: Equities (growth): Diversified U.S. and international stocks to outpace inflation over time. In turn, this structure manages sequence risk by letting equities recover while you spend from safer buckets. It’s simple, visible, and easy to maintain. How Inflation Interacts with the Safe Withdrawal Rate Ultimately, inflation quietly reduces purchasing power. Because of this, most SWR frameworks raise your dollar withdrawal each year by the prior year’s inflation rate. If inflation spikes while markets fall, guardrail rules can pause or cap increases to avoid locking in a higher spending base. As a result, small, early adjustments help preserve flexibility later. Guardrails: Make Your SWR Smarter, Not Stricter In practice, guardrails are predefined rules that adjust withdrawals in small increments. They keep your plan aligned with reality and lower the odds of drastic cuts down the road. Think of them as bumpers that keep you from drifting too far in either direction. Simple Guardrail Examples Upper guardrail: If year-end wealth rises 20% above your target path, increase next year’s withdrawal by an extra 5%–10%. Lower guardrail: If wealth falls 20% below target, cut next year’s withdrawal by 5%–10% or skip the inflation raise. Floor/ceiling: Set minimum and maximum annual changes (for example, −10% to +10%). The exact bands are up to you. As a result, the point is to adjust early and gently, not late and severely. Taxes and the Safe Withdrawal Rate A safe withdrawal rate is a gross figure; only after-tax dollars fund your lifestyle. Thoughtful sequencing can reduce taxes and extend portfolio life. Therefore, a few smart moves, repeated over many years, can make a meaningful difference. Tax-Savvy Sequencing Coordinate accounts: Blend taxable, pre-tax, and Roth withdrawals to avoid bracket creep. Use taxable accounts strategically: Control realized gains, and harvest losses in weak years. Plan for required minimum distributions (RMDs), which generally begin at age 73 under current law, well before they start to avoid bracket spikes and IRMAA surprises. Consider Roth conversions: Converting in lower-income years can improve long-run flexibility. Good tax habits compound. Therefore, coordinate with your advisor and CPA so your plan works on both fronts. Case Studies: Making a Safe Withdrawal Rate Work Case Study 1: $5M Portfolio, Preservation First Profile: A 68-year-old widow with $5 million, modest Social Security, and strong legacy goals. She’s volatility-averse and wants stability. Approach: Chooses a 3.5% safe withdrawal rate with a three-bucket design: ~$400,000 in cash (≈2 years of net needs), $2 million in high-quality bonds, and $2.6 million in diversified equities. This balances stability with growth. Income: $175,000 starting withdrawal, inflation-adjusted, with guardrails that trim spending up to 10% if her portfolio breaches the downside band. Consequently, she cushions downside years without overreacting. Outcome: Lower initial income than 4%, higher confidence in preserving principal and funding bequests. Overall, it aligns with her legacy goals. Case Study 2: $10M Portfolio, Flexible Lifestyle Profile: A couple, 66 and 64, with $10 million, two homes, and steady charitable giving. They can dial down travel if needed. Approach: Selects a 4% SWR and a rule to skip inflation raises in any year the portfolio ends down more than 10%. This rule-based approach helps them avoid emotional decisions. Income: $400,000 starting withdrawal, usually inflation-adjusted. As a result, they draw from taxable first, then blend Roth to manage brackets and keep taxes predictable. Outcome: Strong lifestyle support with modest, pre-planned belt-tightening during poor markets. Therefore, their plan remains on track during volatility. Case Study 3: $7M Portfolio, Travel Now, Taper Later Profile: A 70-year-old single retiree wants higher spending for the next decade and is comfortable tapering later. She values experiences in the near term. Approach: Starts at 4.5% for five years, then gradually glides to 3.5% by year 10. This creates a planned glidepath rather than a surprise cut. Income: ~$315,000 initially, then resets lower per plan. Meanwhile, charitable gifts come from appreciated securities to reduce capital gains. Outcome: Front-loaded experiences without ignoring long-run sustainability, thanks to a written glidepath. Consequently, she preserves optionality later. Adapting Your Safe Withdrawal Rate Over Time Retirement evolves. Because health, family, and markets change, revisit your assumptions and tweak within your guardrails rather than defending a fixed number forever. As a result, regular, small adjustments keep the plan aligned with real life. When an Adjustment Makes Sense Portfolio drift: After big moves, rebalance and evaluate guardrail signals. Life events: Relocation, business sale, or large gifts can shift your target spending. Inflation surprises: If inflation runs hot, cap raises temporarily. Longevity outlook: Strong family longevity may warrant a lower safe withdrawal rate. Update the plan when life changes, and you’ll avoid overreacting later. Typically, quarterly or annual reviews work well. Stress-Testing a Safe Withdrawal Rate Before committing, stress-test your plan. Monte Carlo simulations and historical sequences can reveal weak spots, especially sequence risk. If the plan passes tough tests, you’ll have more confidence when volatility hits. A Simple Three-Test Framework Bad start test: Model five early years of below-average returns and confirm you can fund essentials without selling equities at a loss. High inflation test: Add 2–3 percentage points to inflation for several years and verify that purchasing power holds. Longevity test: Extend the plan to 35–40 years and verify that your cushion persists. Pass these tests and your number will feel less theoretical and more durable. As a result, you’ll also be more likely to stay the course. Coordinate SWR with Social Security, Pensions, and Insurance Smart timing on Social Security can reduce withdrawals early, which improves sustainability. Pensions act like bond substitutes, so you may justify a bit more equity. Additionally, insurance (life, liability, and long-term care) helps prevent large, poorly timed withdrawals that could derail your safe withdrawal rate. Healthcare and Long-Term Care Planning Healthcare shocks often disrupt plans. Even partial coverage can protect your everyday spending framework and keep your SWR intact. Charitable Giving within a Safe Withdrawal Framework If you’re age 70½ or older, qualified charitable distributions (QCDs) from IRAs can exclude up to $108,000 per person in 2025 from income and can also satisfy RMDs once they apply. Donate appreciated securities from taxable accounts to reduce capital gains. With the right tools, giving can support your causes and your plan. A Step-by-Step Safe Withdrawal Rate Playbook Define essentials vs. discretionary: Separate non-negotiables (housing, insurance, healthcare) from flexible items (travel, gifts). Pick a starting range: Choose a safe withdrawal rate within 3%–5% that aligns with goals and temperament. Design buckets and allocation: Hold 1–3 years of cash needs, pair bonds for stability, and keep a diversified equity sleeve. Write your guardrails: Pre-commit to adjustments tied to portfolio outcomes. Plan taxes multi-year: Manage brackets, RMDs, and conversions. Don’t think one year at a time. Stress-test annually: Re-run projections after major market moves or life changes. Document and communicate: Keep a one-page plan that spouses or heirs can follow. Follow this checklist and you’ll turn a target rate into a living plan. Share the one-page summary with your spouse or executor. Common Mistakes to Avoid Anchoring on one number: Treat the SWR as a range with rules, not a decree. Ignoring taxes: Gross and net income can differ dramatically at high asset levels. Parking too much in cash: Excess idle cash erodes purchasing power over time. Skipping rebalancing: Drift increases risk or starves growth. No plan for downturns: Without guardrails, you may overreact at the worst time. Avoid these pitfalls and your plan will be sturdier when it counts. They’re common mistakes but easy to fix early. FAQs on the Safe Withdrawal Rate Is the 4% rule still valid? The 4% rule remains a widely cited historical baseline for a 30-year horizon, but current research suggests a lower starting point (around ~3.7%) for new retirees unless they use flexible spending rules. It’s still a reference point, just not a one-size-fits-all answer. Should I lower my SWR if markets fall? Not automatically. Check your guardrails first. You might skip an inflation raise or trim 5%–10% the following year rather than making deep cuts. Measured moves beat panic. Can I raise my SWR later? Yes. If your portfolio consistently exceeds targets, a small increase can be prudent, ideally pre-written into your plan. Success should come with rules, too. Conclusion: A Safe Withdrawal Rate You Can Live With For $5 million to $10 million portfolios, the safe withdrawal rate is less about perfection and more about process. Start in a sensible range, align it with your values, and use guardrails to make measured adjustments. With clear buckets, written rules, and tax-aware sequencing, you can convert wealth into durable, inflation-adjusted income that supports your lifestyle and legacy without obsessing over markets day to day. Key Takeaways A safe withdrawal rate is a probability-informed starting point, not a guarantee. For $5M–$10M portfolios, a 3%–4% starting range is typical for a 30-year horizon today, with the exact rate refined by goals, flexibility, taxes, and time horizon. Use buckets and guardrails to manage sequence risk and keep spending steady. Coordinate withdrawals with tax strategy, Social Security, pensions, and insurance. Stress-test annually and make small, pre-planned adjustments as conditions change. The post $5M–$10M Portfolio: Safe Withdrawal Rate Income first appeared on American Bullion.

The currency market had been dormant for a while, but this is now a theme of the past yet again. Throughout August, a first move higher from the Pound got met with a subsequent consolidation until the beginning of this month . GBP/USD peaked just above 1.37 on Wednesday’s announcement, but that rally didn’t stick — the pair now trades roughly 1.70% lower as the dollar staged a fierce comeback. What flipped the script was a rapid unwind of pre-FOMC downbeat USD bets: Powell’s more balanced tone and a re-credibilized Federal Reserve re-anchored the dollar (the latter could still be a bearish theme for the USD in the future). Recent exchanges between US President Trump and UK PM Keir Starmer have marked a strengthening of collaboration between the two countries that are on their own separating paths from their neighbors, and it would make sense for the two countries to get closer, looking forward. In terms of data, with UK inflation still uncomfortably high (3.8% headline as the Bank of England targets 2%) and Governor Bailey still mentioning cuts on the table (more for 2026), Markets got a perfect setup for a rejection at those pre-FOMC highs. The question now is whether this pullback is the start of a larger correction, and if this breakdown will also spread to other European currencies in the continuation of FX geographic trends. Let’s break down the multi-timeframe levels for GBPUSD and where to look next. Read More: Post-FOMC US dollar surge shifts global markets – DXY outlookWhere to Next, EUR/USD? Policy gap between ECB and FedCaution Over Speed: How the Fed Framed Its First CutGBPUSD Daily Chart GBPUSD Daily Chart, September 19, 2025 – Source: TradingView When looking at the higher timeframe, we spot that since reaching its 2025 highs in June, the pair really hasn't moved in a trend, which makes sense when looking at the immense movements in the first half of the year. The two past candles are sending scary sights, but the 50-Day Moving Average (1.34650) may act as an intermediate bumper to slow the ongoing selling. Breaching it and closing below offers a door for lower movement. On the other hand, failing to breach the key MA could lead to further consolidation. Let's take a closer look for intra-day trading levels. GBPUSD 8H Chart and levels GBPUSD 8H Chart, September 19, 2025 – Source: TradingView Shorter timeframes offer another view of how steep the descent is. With momentum getting closer to oversold, it will be interesting to see how participants move the major pair, and with the week coming to an end, it will surely be an answer for next week. However, things to look for trading are: A continuation or lack thereof of the Dollar Index (check out our morning piece!) , a close below the 1.3450 (August range lows) to 1.35650 level and upcoming data (US GDP data and many Central bank speeches next week) Levels to watch for the GBPUSD: Resistance Levels 1.35 psychological levelResistance at the 1.36 zoneResistance 1.37 Zonepre-FOMC Highs 1.37288Key Pivot Zone: 1.3450 to 1.3650 Support Levels 1.34 Psychological levelSupport 1.3260-1.33Support 1.3170 - 1.31850GBPUSD 1H Chart GBPUSD 1H Chart, September 19, 2025 – Source: TradingView Looking closer, momentum starts to curb around the lows of the week which signals that oversold conditions might be kicking in. Such preceding movement may impede a strong pullback, and consolidation may have the higher chance of allowing price action to then continue – Future data will then tell if the movement is more to an upside reversal or a downside continuation. Safe Trades! Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

BHP Group (ASX, NYSE, LSE: BHP) could appoint Geraldine Slattery, president of its Australia operations, as the company’s first female chief executive in its 140-year history, the Financial Times reported on Friday. If appointed, Slattery would join a short list of women to lead a major global mining company. One of the most notable was Cynthia Carroll, who became the first woman to head Anglo American in 2007, serving until 2012. Succession planning underway Current CEO Mike Henry is expected to step down by mid-2026 after five years in the role, according to the FT report, which cited people familiar with the board’s thinking. BHP has said its directors are “not in a rush” to name his successor. The appointment will mark one of the first major decisions under Ross McEwan, who became BHP’s chair in March. The former chief executive of Royal Bank of Scotland and National Australia Bank has been leading the search for Henry’s replacement. Other potential candidates reportedly in contention include Vandita Pant, BHP’s chief financial officer; Ragnar Udd, the company’s chief commercial officer; and Brandon Craig, head of the Americas. Slattery’s background Slattery has spent three decades at BHP, holding senior leadership positions across its global operations. She previously ran the company’s U.S. petroleum business and oversaw its push into shale before becoming head of BHP Petroleum. Born in Ireland, Slattery emigrated to Australia in the 1990s, where she initially worked at CSL, a blood plasma company, before joining BHP. If confirmed, Slattery would become one of the few female chief executives in the mining industry. Other notable figures include Mpumi Zikalala, CEO of Kumba Iron Ore in South Africa, and Mfikeyi Makayi, who heads KoBold Metals’ Zambian copper unit. (With files from Reuters)

Perseus Mining (ASX, TSX: PRU) said it’s received presidential approval to develop and operate Côte d’Ivoire’s first underground mine. Côte d’Ivoire President Alassane Ouattara signed the decree authorizing construction of the CMA project at the Yaouré gold mine on Thursday, Perseus said Friday in a statement. This follows the approval of an environmental and social impact assessment and the issuance of a first decree by the country’s environment minister in May. The mine is about 50 km northwest of the political capital Yamoussoukro. “Receiving the presidential decree authorising the development of Côte d’Ivoire’s first underground mine is a major milestone for Perseus, allowing us to immediately proceed with the cutting of portals and ultimately gaining access to further important ore sources for processing through the Yaouré processing facility,” CEO and managing director Jeff Quartermaine said in the statement. Yaouré, one of three African mines now operated by Perseus, will be a major part of the company’s efforts to boost annual gold output about 6.6% to as many as 530,000 oz. by the end of 2030. The mine is expected to account for about one-third of Perseus’ total gold production of 2.6 million to 2.7 million oz. over the period. Perseus, which also operates in Ghana, is building a fourth mine in Tanzania that’s expected to produce first gold in 2027. Shares of Perseus rose 2.1% to C$3.90 Friday morning in Toronto, giving the company a market value of about C$5.3 billion. The stock has traded between C$2.16 and C$3.98 in the past year. Extended life Byrnecut, the company’s mining contractor, has begun commissioning the equipment that will allow crews to start developing declines at the mine. Based on current mineral resources and ore reserves, the construction of an underground operation below the open pit will extend Yaouré’s life until at least 2035, Perseus said. “While receipt of the formal authorisation comes later than originally planned, the delay has allowed us time to complete all infrastructure works required to support the operation as well as ensure that Byrnecut’s underground equipment is available and commissioned ready for immediate commencement of mining operations,” Quartermaine added. First ore Perseus made a final decision to proceed with the $170 million underground project in January. First ore production is planned for January 2026, while commercial production is scheduled for March 2027. Yaouré is poised to produce between 870,000 and 905,000 oz. by the end of 2030 at an average all-in sustaining cost of $1,480-$1,580 per oz., according to a presentation posted on the company’s website. Measured and indicated resources at Yaouré as of June 30 are estimated at 54.1 million tonnes grading 1.49 grams gold per tonne for contained metal of 2.59 million oz. gold, Perseus says on its website. This includes 7.4 million tonnes grading 4.16 grams gold, for contained metal of 966,000 oz., in the CMA underground area. A further 16.9 million tonnes of material grading 1.8 grams gold, containing 982,000 oz. of gold, are classified as inferred resources. This includes 4.7 million tonnes grading 3.4 grams gold, for contained metal of 514,000 oz., in the CMA underground area.

Gold moved higher on Friday and is headed for a fifth straight weekly gain, as the market digests this week’s US rate cut and weighs up the Federal Reserve’s policy path for the rest of this year. Spot gold rose 0.6% at $3,665.54 per ounce as of 11:15 a.m. ET, while US gold futures climbed 0.7% higher at $3,702.30 per ounce in New York. Click on chart for live prices. Bullion is now on track for another weekly gain of 0.3%, riding the momentum of a record-setting rally that sent prices to an all-time high of $3,706.90 an ounce right after Wednesday’s 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed. However, the US central bank also gave warnings of persistent inflation, casting doubt over the pace of future easing. Fed Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said job market risks warranted this week’s rate cut and likely reductions at the central bank’s next two meetings. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. The metal also tends to perform well during periods of uncertainty and has gained about 40% since the start of the year. “Gold remains pretty strong here and is just seeing a pause after the Fed. The bullish trend remains intact with new highs inevitable and realistically we could see $4,000 before year-end,” said RJO Futures market strategist Bob Haberkorn, in a note to Reuters. Commenting on the recent pullback from the $3,700 level, Haberkorn noted that many investors are simply turning to alternatives such as platinum and silver, since they are more affordable than gold. For reference, silver recorded a gain of 2.2% on Friday to hit $42.76 per ounce and is up 0.6% for the week, surpassing the performance of gold. Secure your wealth today — buy gold bullion directly through our trusted partner, Sprott Money.

Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO) is auctioning its final collection of rare diamonds from its closed Argyle mine in Australia and the soon-to-shutter Diavik operation in Canada. The tender, called Beyond Rare, includes 52 lots totalling 45.44 carats and marks the end of an era for two of the world’s most celebrated diamond mines. The centrepieces are six diamond sets selected to represent the peak of production from the East Kimberley region of Western Australia and the Northwest Territories of Canada. The tender also features 39 individual stones and seven curated sets. Rio Tinto Diamonds’ general manager of sales and marketing, Patrick Coppens, called the auction a historic moment. “It is hard to overstate the importance of this final collection,” he said. “No other mining company in the world has custody of such an exquisite range of diamond colours, shapes and sizes.” Rio Tinto closed Argyle in 2020, ending production of the famed pink, red and violet stones that made the mine world-renowned. Although Argyle accounted for about 75% of Rio’s diamond output, the impact on the company’s earnings was minimal, with diamonds contributing only about 2%of revenue. Diavik, the miner’s last diamond asset, is scheduled to close in 2026. The collection includes one GIA Fancy Red diamond, 12 Fancy Violet, and 76 Fancy Pink and Purple-Pink stones from Argyle’s legacy inventory. From Diavik, highlights include two flawless D-colour white diamonds, an emerald cut weighing 5.11 carats and a pear shape of 3.02 carats. Both of them were cut from the same rough stone. Collection includes one GIA Fancy Red diamond, 12 Fancy Violet, and 76 Fancy Pink and Purple-Pink stones from Argyle’s legacy inventory. (Image courtesy of Rio Tinto.) The tender also features a Fancy Vivid Yellow diamond weighing 6.12 carats. The diamonds will tour Hong Kong, Australia and Antwerp before bids close on October 20. Industry insiders expect strong competition from top jewellers, collectors and connoisseurs.

Newmont (NYSE: NEM; TSX: NGT) has sold its entire stake in Orla Mining (TSX: OLA) for $439 million, marking another step in its broader divestiture program aimed at streamlining its portfolio. The company disposed of all 43 million Orla shares at $10.14 per share through the Toronto Stock Exchange. The sale comes amid Newmont’s efforts to unlock more than $2 billion in cash through asset sales, workforce reductions, and debt cuts following its $17.14 billion takeover of Australia’s Newcrest in 2023. Shares of Newmont rose 3% in New York following the announcement, lifting its market capitalization to $88.6 billion, while Orla shares fell 7.8%, valuing the company at $3.32 billion. Divestiture drive Since November 2024, Newmont has divested several Canadian assets, including the Musselwhite gold mine in Ontario, which it agreed to sell to Orla Mining in an $850 million transaction. Earlier this week, it announced a deal to sell the Coffee gold project in Yukon to Fuerte Metals (TSXV: FMT) for up to $150 million, completing a year-long divestment program. The move follows Agnico Eagle Mines’ (TSX, NYSE: AEM) decision earlier this month to sell its 11.3% stake in Orla for $560.5 million at $14.75 per share. CEO Tom Palmer said the Orla stake sale is part of Newmont’s strategy to streamline its equity portfolio and unlock significant cash to support Newmont’s capital allocation priorities. Newmont applied last week to voluntarily delist from the Toronto Stock Exchange, citing low trading volumes, though it remains listed in New York. The miner continues to operate Canadian assets such as the Brucejack and Red Chris mines. Orla – which has two producing assets, the Camino Rojo oxide mine in central Mexico and the Musselwhite mine – forecast consolidated gold output this year to hit 265,000-285,000 ounces.

China’s exports of rare earth products jumped to a near-record 7,338 tons in August, marking the highest monthly volume since 2012, according to customs data cited by Bloomberg on Friday. The data comes right before a scheduled phone call between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump, during which they are expected to discuss trade and critical minerals. China is the world’s largest producer of rare earths, a group of 17 minerals used in a multitude of high-tech applications, ranging from consumer electronics to fighter jets. With control over 70% of the global mine supply and almost all of the processing, the nation has a near-monopoly status in the rare earth sector. In April, at the height of the US-instigated trade war, Xi’s government leveraged its dominance in rare earths by placing export restrictions on some minerals and related products, in particular high-performance magnets used in electric vehicles to wind turbines, causing disruptions in those industries. Since then, these restrictions have loosened as trade tensions subsided, and the August export figure underscores a potential easing of supply shortage concerns. However, the recovery may also indicate that exporters were only catching up on delayed magnet orders from the earlier months. Customs data earlier showed that Chinese exports of just rare earth minerals fell 3.4% to 5,792 tons during the month. Europe disrupted Despite the surge in Chinese exports, end-users of rare earth magnets in Europe remain undersupplied, with many forced to halt production, according to Bloomberg. The EU Chamber of Commerce in China said Thursday that companies incurred seven production stoppages in August because of the shortfalls, and an additional 46 are expected this month, though it did not specify the scale or nature of the affected facilities. A further 10 stoppages are expected by December, in addition to those in August and September, the group added. “We are seeing things moving, but they are moving extremely, extremely slowly,” Carlo D’Andrea, the Chamber’s vice president and chair of its Shanghai chapter, said at a press briefing. He called the supply bottleneck the single biggest issue currently facing the group’s members. The information on potential shutdowns comes from 22 firms that have sought the Chamber’s help in getting approval for a total of 141 urgent applications for exports from China, Bloomberg reported. “China’s imposition of export controls on rare earths in April 2025 exemplifies how the US-China trade war can have significant spillover effects on global trade, critically impacting European companies’ supply chains,” the EU Chamber said in a report earlier this week. The EU warning contrasts with remarks made earlier this week by US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, who said supplies to his country had “bounced back up significantly.”

The XRP price is showing signs of repeating a past price pattern that once led to a strong rally. According to crypto analyst Egrag Crypto, this setup suggests a move higher in the weeks ahead. To back the bullish case, the token is currently holding its ground above support areas. Traders across the market are now waiting to see if this pattern develops into another upward move. Analyst Spots Bullish Fractal Formation In XRP Price Chart Egrag Crypto has been studying the XRP price chart and points to what he calls a repeating fractal formation. In this case, the current price structure with the yellow fractal of XRP resembles one seen before a strong rally in the past. It indicates that the token price has been fluctuating within a narrow range for some time. This type of price action often suggests that the market is building pressure, and according to him, XRP is getting ready for the next move. If XRP continues to follow this fractal, the token could break through resistance levels, confirming the bullish trend. These resistance points are at $3.91 and $5.56. This sideways trading has built a stable base on the chart, and the fractal points to the next move possibly starting soon. XRP Price Targets $6–$7 By Mid-November Based on this fractal setup, Egrag Crypto projects that XRP could trade between $6 and $7 by mid-November 2025. Such a move would mean the token more than doubles in value from its current level. A rise of over 100% in such a short period would bring renewed attention to XRP and could signal the start of a broader rally across the crypto market. The $6 to $7 target zone is the key part of his bullish outlook, marking a possible turning point for XRP. Currently, XRP is valued at $3.03, marking modest but steady growth. Over the past 24 hours, it has gained around 2.57%. Over the past week, the token has increased by 3.21%, and on the monthly chart, it has added 3.3%. With the rise in XRP markets, adding more strength, showing that buyers are gradually pushing the price higher. This constant build often prepares the way for bigger moves if the buying continues. According to the analysis, if XRP is to keep moving in a bullish direction, staying above the $2 support area is essential. If XRP maintains this base, it makes the fractal projection of $6 to $7 by mid-November much more likely. Analysts often point to support levels as foundations for rallies, and in this case, the $2 price level could serve as the platform that launches the token toward its projected price range of $6 to $7.

Perpetua Resources Corp. (Nasdaq: PPTA; TSX: PPTA) has received final federal approval to begin construction at its Stibnite project in Idaho, positioning the company to deliver the United States’ only domestic supply of antimony along with significant gold production. The US Forest Service issued a conditional Notice to Proceed on Friday, confirming that Perpetua had satisfied all requirements outlined in the January 2025 Record of Decision. The only remaining step before initial construction is posting financial assurance bonds agreed upon with the US Forest Service, Idaho Department of Lands, and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. The company expects to finalize bonding in the coming weeks, with construction slated to start by October. Shares of Perpetua rose 1% on Friday, trading at $17.59 in New York and giving the company a market capitalization of about C$1.89 billion. Strategic critical mineral supply The Stibnite project is expected to begin commercial production by 2028, with a 15-year mine life that could supply more than 100 million pounds of antimony, meeting over 35% of US annual demand. Antimony is a metal vital to defense applications, including munitions, as well as renewable technologies like solar panels. Currently, the US has no domestic production of antimony and relies heavily on imports, primarily from China. “This is a monumental milestone,” said Jon Cherry, President & CEO of Perpetua Resources. “After eight years of review and over $400 million invested, it is finally time for the Stibnite Gold Project to deliver for America. We are ready to bring Stibnite back to life as a national strategic asset.” The project will also produce roughly 450,000 ounces of gold annually, providing a dual revenue stream. Proven and probable reserves at the site include 148 million pounds of antimony and more than 6 million ounces of gold. Last April, the US Export-Import Bank signaled support for the project with a letter of interest for up to $1.8 billion in financing, which remains under review. The project has backing from billionaire investor John Paulson and has also drawn political attention in Washington, particularly after China’s decision last year to block exports of antimony to the US. Environmental restoration and local concerns Perpetua has emphasized the project’s dual focus on mineral production and environmental restoration. The final mine plan was redesigned to reduce the project footprint by 13%, improve stream and wetland conditions, and reconnect fish habitats. Still, the project has faced opposition from Idaho’s Nez Perce tribe, which has raised concerns over potential impacts on salmon populations in the region. Located in Idaho’s Stibnite-Yellow Pine district, about 222 kilometers northeast of Boise, the site was once a critical supplier of antimony during World War II. the project hosts 104.6 million proven and probable tonnes grading 1.43 grams gold per tonne and 0.064% antimony for 4.8 million oz. gold and 148 million lb. antimony, according to the feasibility study.

Fed cuts rate to 4.00–4.25% because of labor market situation in USInterest rate cuts in the Eurozone are in question due to inflation being under controlNegative divergence has appeared on EURUSD, which can be a sign of correction aheadFED Policy The United States Federal Reserve has decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the main rate to the 4.00-4.25% range. This is the first change after a nine-month pause in the cycle, and the decision itself is precautionary. The Fed, guided by a "risk management" approach, did not react to a specific economic shock but acted prudently amid increasing uncertainty. A new element of communication was the growing attention paid to the labor market situation – despite relatively stable inflation and unemployment, a slowdown in the pace of employment and limited recruitment activity are visible, which may indicate the market's susceptibility to deterioration. Non Farm Payrolls (in thousands), source: Bloomberg ECB Policy Meanwhile, in Europe, during the Eurogroup meeting in Copenhagen, members of the European Central Bank's Governing Council, Madis Muller and Mario Centeno, presented the ECB's monetary policy stance. The current policy remains moderately accommodative, and interest rates – including the deposit rate at 2% – have not changed in recent months. President Christine Lagarde emphasized that the ECB is at an opportune moment to achieve its 2% inflation target. Madis Muller noted that inflation is currently "more or less on target," and the current level of rates supports economic growth, which in the coming quarters will be more dependent on domestic demand. Mario Centeno, in turn, pointed out the current risks to growth and inflation, which he believes are trending downwards. He did not rule out a future interest rate cut, although he currently sees no urgent need for it. The ECB forecasts inflation at 1.9% in 2027 and GDP growth of 1.3%. Structural challenges, such as higher tariffs from the US, weak industrial demand, and a growing propensity to save, limit the potential for economic recovery in the euro area. HICP ECB Projections, source: European Central Bank EUR/USD EURUSD, daily timeframe, source: TradingView In the foreign exchange market, the EURUSD pair has been in an upward trend since mid-January, when the exchange rate rose from 1.0178 to 1.1918, representing an almost 17% increase. Despite this, technical analysis indicates the possibility of a correction – a negative divergence has formed between the price and the RSI indicator. In the region of 1.14, there is important technical support – both horizontal and resulting from previous corrections within the trend. A decline to this level could be merely a natural correction within a broad upward trend. Potential doubts about further US rate cuts could accelerate such a descent without disturbing the long-term upward structure. In turn, maintaining the current monetary policy in the euro area may strengthen the common currency's fundamentals against the dollar in the medium term. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US stock indices hit record highs amid Fed decisions and Nvidia investments The largest US stock indices closed the trading session at new historical highs. This significant growth was driven by two powerful factors. First, the Federal Reserve decided to lower the key interest rate, which had a positive impact on market expectations and increased capital inflow into stocks. Second, the market was inspired by news from Nvidia: the company announced plans to invest $5 billion in Intel's stock. This initiative triggered a strong rally in the IT sector, particularly with Intel shares soaring a record 22.8% in a single day. The success of the tech sector and the Fed's policy easing not only strengthened investor optimism but also created new opportunities for profitable investments. Global analysts note that the market's strong reaction is due to increased trust in tech giants and favorable macroeconomic conditions. The heightened demand for stocks and large deals are influencing the dynamics of all major U.S. indices. More details in the link. All key US stock indices rose for the first time since 2021, supported by foreign investmentsThe US market demonstrated unique unity – all major indices, including the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, and Russell 2000, saw growth. This rare event, recorded for the first time since November 2021, highlights the high level of confidence in the US economy from both domestic and foreign investors. Foreign funds have been particularly active, increasing their positions in US assets, betting on further growth. An additional factor of stability was the change in hedging strategies, which helped reduce risks and increase the attractiveness of the US stock market for global players. The influx of fresh investments and sound risk management are maintaining a positive sentiment among market participants and boosting trading activity. The combination of these factors is creating a strong foundation for further growth and development of US stock indices. More details in the link. Reminder: InstaForex offers some of the best conditions for trading US stocks, bonds, and indices, providing traders with wide opportunities for profiting from the dynamics of the largest global markets. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The Canadian dollar is in negative territory for a third straight day. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3820, up 0.18% on the day. Canada's retail sales slide Canada's retail sales declined by 0.8% m/m in July, a sharp dowrturn from the 1.6% gain in June. The volatility in retail sales reflects uncertainty over the US tariffs, which has affected consumer spending. August is expected to show a rebound, with a preliminary estimate of a 1% gain, which would make up for the July decline. US unemployment claims slip There are no US releases today but there was positive news from the employment front on Thursday. Unemployment claims fell to 231 thouand last week, down from 264 thousand a week earlier, which was the highest reading since October 2021. The sharp spike in claims, together with soft nonfarm payrolls, had elevated concerns about the health of the US labor market. The latest unemployment claims release indicates that layoff are low, but hiring remains weak as the demand for workers has slowed. The Federal Reserve is keeping a close eye on the labor market and Fed Chair Powell cited the downside risk to employment as the reason for the rate cut, the first since December 2024. USDCAD is testing resistance at 1.3808. Next, there is resistance at 1.38211.3796 and 1.3783 are providing support USDCAD 4-Hour Chart, September 19, 2025 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.