GBP/USD: Analysis and Forecast

[Ben Graham]

At the start of the new week, the GBP/USD pair halted its five-day decline and confidently held above the key 1.3300 psychological level, even trading above 1.3330. Nevertheless, the fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices remains to the downside.

The British pound continues to face pressure from growing expectations of further monetary policy easing by the Bank of England. This weighs on the GBP/USD pair, as markets now price in about a 40% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in November, and around 65 basis points of total easing by the end of the year. These expectations are reinforced by unexpectedly stable inflation data released last week, as well as signs of a cooling labor market in the U.K.

In addition, concerns over the country's upcoming budget ahead of the crucial Autumn Statement may limit upside potential for the GBP/USD pair. At the same time, the U.S. dollar struggles to recover from its recent lows following weak consumer inflation data, while investors are pricing in the likelihood of two more Federal Reserve rate cuts by year-end.

Further complicating the dollar's position are fears surrounding the prolonged U.S. government shutdown. However, traders may prefer to refrain from making major strategic decisions until the conclusion of the two-day FOMC monetary policy meeting, scheduled for Wednesday. Afterward, market attention will shift to the upcoming meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, expected later this week. Another key event will be Friday's release of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which could significantly influence short-term dollar dynamics and act as a catalyst for GBP/USD movement.

From a technical standpoint, daily chart oscillators remain negative. Despite prices holding confidently above the 1.3300 level and breaking above 1.3330, the pair has encountered resistance at the 9-day EMA, which remains below the 14-day EMA — confirming that the path of least resistance for the pair continues to be downward.

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