USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

[Ben Graham]

From a technical perspective, yesterday's breakout of the 153.25–153.30 level — the previous monthly high — and subsequent strengthening above the round level of 154.00 are viewed as the main triggers for further growth in the USD/JPY pair. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart remain firmly in positive territory, though they are approaching the overbought zone. This, in turn, suggests the likelihood of a period of consolidation or correction, after which spot prices will be ready to move higher toward 154.75–154.80, aiming for the psychological level of 155.00.

On the other hand, a drop below the round level of 154.00 should find solid support and remain limited to the 153.30–153.25 level. The next level to watch is the round level of 153.00, which, if decisively broken, would expose yesterday's low around 152.15. Further selling below the 152.00 level would negate the positive outlook, opening the way for deeper losses toward the 151.55–151.50 level, before spot prices eventually fall to the key support level at 151.15–151.00.

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