Bitcoin Faces Potential 50% Crash—But Analysts Say The Fear Is Overblown

[Ben Graham]

Bitcoin’s recent wobble has split analysts. Some warn of a deep pullback while onchain trackers point to a mild correction that could already be ending.

Traditional Analysis Shows Risk

According to Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone’s post on X, the move under $100,000 may not be finished. He called a fall from recent highs a possible “Speed Bump Toward $56,000,” and said that past rallies often reverted toward the 48-month moving average, now near $56,000.

That view implies the potential for a sharp drop — almost 50% from recent peaks — if the current downtrend keeps going. Short, stark statements from established market commentators have pushed concern among some investors.

Onchain Signals Point To A Milder Decline

Reports have disclosed data from Glassnode and XWIN Research Japan that paint a different picture. Bitcoin slipped to $99,000 on Nov. 4, the first time in over four months it fell below the $100,000 mark, but it later recovered to around $101,500, according to Coingecko.

$100,000 Bitcoin – a Speed Bump Toward $56,000? “Look at the chart” has been a mantra from Bitcoin bulls, but the market gods can refresh humility when prices stretch too far. Synonymous with humility is mean reversion, and my look at the chart shows how normal it’s been for the… pic.twitter.com/ijzJ8L4SjT

— Mike McGlone (@mikemcglone11) November 6, 2025

Onchain measures such as the Market Value to Realized Value, or MVRV, have dropped to ranges that in the past marked local lows. Glassnode highlighted the Relative Unrealized Loss metric, which currently sits at 3.1%.

Readings at this level have historically matched mid-cycle corrections rather than full-blown bear markets. The firm noted losses under a 5% threshold have tended to be orderly revaluations, not panic-driven sell-offs.

Bitcoin: Long-Term Forecasts Are Being Recalibrated

Based on reports from ARK Invest, Cathie Wood trimmed her long-term Bitcoin projection by $300,000. She had earlier predicted a $1.5 million top by 2030; the cut implies a new peak target around $1.2 million.

Wood said competition from stablecoins in emerging markets is reducing some demand for Bitcoin as a store of value. The move shows that even long-term bulls are adjusting assumptions as the market shifts.

Market sentiment is being tested by numbers and by narrative. Short-term price swings have been large, but some key onchain indicators remain within ranges that have not signaled extreme stress.

At the same time, notable analysts and venture leaders continue to warn of much deeper retracements. Investors are left to weigh technical patterns, blockchain metrics, and evolving views on demand drivers like stablecoins.

Featured image from Gemini, chart from TradingView