AUD/JPY: Analysis and Forecast

[Ben Graham]

The AUD/JPY pair is attempting to recover from the round level of 99.00. However, the fundamental backdrop remains tilted in favor of the bears, suggesting a higher likelihood of continued downside after the recent pullback from 101.20, the yearly high recorded in October.

Data released today from Japan point to signs of weakening private consumption. Combined with the newly announced stimulus program of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, this may prompt the Bank of Japan to refrain from tightening monetary policy. Such a scenario does not raise traders' expectations for yen appreciation, which helps support the AUD/JPY pair.

However, the minutes of the Bank of Japan's September meeting, published on Wednesday, kept hopes alive for a possible rate hike in the near future.

Additional support for the yen comes from weaker sentiment in equity markets, as the currency acts as a safe haven, while the risk-sensitive Australian dollar remains under pressure. Meanwhile, China's disappointing trade balance data indicate weak domestic demand in the world's second-largest economy amid trade uncertainties. The absence of any hawkish surprises from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) further underscores pressure on the Australian dollar, which often trades as a proxy for Chinese economic activity.

All these factors confirm a short-term bearish bias and indicate that the downtrend in AUD/JPY remains intact. A break below 98.80 (the recent low) cannot be ruled out, which would confirm the bearish outlook and pave the way for a move toward the 98.00 level or lower.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com