EUR/GBP. Analysis and Forecast

[Ben Graham]

Although the EUR/GBP pair has been correcting for the fourth consecutive day and remains at low levels, its decline may be limited, as the euro is supported by continued cautious sentiment regarding the future course of the European Central Bank's (ECB) policy. The ECB is expected to maintain current interest rates unchanged in the near term, as markets now assess the probability of a rate cut by September 2026 at only 45%, significantly lower than 80% in October.

Today, Monday, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos stated that there is no need to adjust current rates unless inflation trends or forecasts change. He noted that the services sector and wages are moving in the right direction, while inflation is approaching the target level of 2%. Although growth persists, it remains modest.

Francois Villeroy de Galhau, an ECB director, emphasized the importance of maintaining tools that allow for flexible monetary policy. Meanwhile, Joachim Nagel called for vigilance regarding inflation. Vice President Luis de Guindos added that any decline in inflation below 2% in the short term is likely to be temporary.

Since the Bank of England (BoE) and ECB are following different policy paths, the EUR/GBP pair could rise. The British pound remains under pressure amid growing expectations that the BoE will cut interest rates at its December meeting. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey hinted that a rate cut may happen soon, and the market now expects such a move before Christmas. However, the central bank stressed that any further monetary easing will depend on inflation dynamics.

From a technical perspective, oscillators on the daily chart are positive. Prices are trading around the 9-day EMA, which remains above the 14-day EMA, confirming a bullish outlook. The pair faces resistance at 0.8795, while immediate support lies at the 14-day EMA, around 0.8766. The next support level is at 0.8753 — if prices fail to hold this level, bears may attempt to regain control of the market.

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