Gold (XAU/USD): 9% dead cat bounce rally at risk of reversal, watch US$4,036 downside trigger

[Ben Graham]

Key takeaways

• The recent 9% rally in gold (XAU/USD) from US$3,886 to US$4,245 is likely a short-term corrective rebound within a larger medium-term downtrend after the all-time high of US$4,381 on 20 October 2025.
• Rising 10-year US Treasury real yield, which broke above 1.77% and remains supported, increases the opportunity cost of holding gold, constraining its upside momentum.
• Short-term gold is at risk of a bearish breakdown below US$4,036, with key resistance at US$4,155; a break above this level could trigger a squeeze toward US$4,203/4,267.

The recent 9% rally seen in the gold (XAU/USD) from its 28 October 2025 low of US$3,886 to last Thursday, 13 November 2025, high of US$4,245 is likely a minor corrective rebound, aka “dead cat bounce”, within a larger medium-term corrective decline structure that the precious yellow metal is likely still undergoing after gold hit its current all-time high of US$4,381 on 20 October 2025.

Let’s break it down from a technical and intermarket analysis perspective.

10-year US Treasury real yield bullish breakout above 1.78%

zoom_out_map

Fig. 1: 10-year US Treasury real yield medium-term & major trends as of 17 Nov 2025 (Source: TradingView)

The opportunity cost of holding gold, especially for leveraged speculative long positions, has increased in the past four weeks.

The 10-year US Treasury real yield has found medium-term support at 1.66% and broke decisively above its prior medium-term descending channel resistance at 1.77% on 30 October.

It has continued to trade firmly above 1.77% in the past two weeks, which coincides with the 20-day and 50-day moving averages.

These observations suggest that the 10-year US Treasury real yield has room for further upside within its major downtrend phase that is still intact below the major pivotal resistance of 2.24%, with the next medium-term resistances coming in at 1.87% and 2.09% (see Fig. 1).

A further rise in the 10-year US Treasury real yield raises the opportunity cost of holding gold, which could constrain upside momentum in the yellow metal.

Next, we outline the short-term trajectory for gold (XAU/USD) over the next 1 to 3 days, along with the key technical elements and levels to monitor.

Preferred trend bias (1-3 days) – At risk of bearish breakdown below US$4,036

zoom_out_map

Fig. 2: Gold (XAU/USD) minor trend as of 17 Nov 2025 (Source: TradingView)

Short-term pivotal resistance for gold (XAU/USD) stands at US$4,155, and a break below US$4,036 is likely to unleash the second leg of its medium-term corrective decline phase to expose the next intermediate supports at US$3,980 and US$3,895/3,864 in the first step (see Fig. 2).

Key elements

• Gold (XAU/USD) has staged a bearish reversal on last Friday, 14 November, and ended the week with a weekly bearish “Shooting Star” candlestick pattern.
• Before the bearish reversal occurred last Friday, the hourly RSI momentum indicator of gold (XAU/USD) had traced out a bearish divergence condition at its overbought region (above the 70 level) on Thursday, 13 November.
• These observations indicate that the 9% rally in gold (XAU/USD) from the 28 October 2025 low to the 13 November 2025 high lacks the momentum needed to trigger a sustained bullish impulsive move.

Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days)

On the other hand, a clearance above US$4,155 key resistance invalidates the bearish scenario for a squeeze up towards the next intermediate resistances at US$4,203 and US$4,267.

Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.