US Market Outlook – Nasdaq attempts a run higher, but Bulls can't go too far

Ben Graham · Novembro 19

Multiple breakdown attempts from selling flows have failed to materialize in more concrete bearish price action.

And with key earnings coming up for Nvidia (After the close), the setup for mean reversion was a very decent one for Equity bulls.

Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are up in today's session with the tech-focused index leading strong, pulled once again by Semiconductors and a stellar performance from Google, who just launched a revolutionary Gemini 3 Model.

Tech giants like Nvidia, AVGO, and Oracle are bouncing back from rough stretches, while Consumer Defensives, Energy, and Utilities are on the other hand lagging quite much, leading to the Dow barely trading positive (and turning slightly negative)

Screenshot 2025-11-19 at 11.08.06 AM — US Equity Heatmap (11:08 A.M.) – November 19, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Fear and Greed have been working effectively as mean reversion indicators, particularly as most of the action throughout the past week has been technically rangebound—even if it seems much more volatile than it really is.

It will be interesting to see if there is any real follow through to today's action as Nvidia earnings remain the major factor for the ongoing 7-month long all-time high rally.

Let's dive right into the intraday outlook for all three US Major indices: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500.

A global Outlook on US Indices

Screenshot 2025-11-19 at 11.04.38 AM — US Main Indices Daily Outlook – Huge rebound. November 19, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The morning buying frenzy seems to have stepped into a wall as I write this. Let's take a closer look at the individual charts.

Dow Jones 4H Chart and Technical Levels

Screenshot 2025-11-19 at 11.31.57 AM — Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart, November 19, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The price action is looking more bearish by the minute now, with an imminent push towards the Tuesday 45,925 lows that led to the current range.

Sentiment has caught a cold, particularly in the Consumer defensive sectors. Target is plunging from its earnings report and tomorrow will be iportant, with Markets awaiting the release of Walmart's numbers.

Dow Jones technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

Current All-time high 48,459
Resistance zone 47,500 - 47,650 and 4H MA 50
Pivot now resistance 47,000 to 47,200
46,400 Momentum Pivot and 4H 50-period MA (46,375)
Psychological resistance at 48,000

Support Levels

46,000 +/- 300pts Immediate Support
Tuesday Lows 45,925
45,000 psychological level (next support and main for higher timeframe)
44,400 to 44,500

Nasdaq 4H Chart and Technical Levels

Screenshot 2025-11-19 at 11.33.36 AM — Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart, November 19, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Nasdaq was onto quite a run throughout the open until mean-reversion came through. Not too surprising when looking at the most important numbers not being yet released (September NFP tomorrow and most importantly, Nvidia Q3 Earnings).

Looking at the direct price action, yestedray's selling broke below the Double bottom, but failed continuation lower brought the index back right at the support.

The current 4H Candle is one of an indecisive breakout which could be bearish. But as most traders will await the earnings to trade, the Market may just take a further break for now.

To test bull/bear strength, take the extremes of the 4H current candle (24,520 to 24,925) – See if sudden flows manage to break the lows/highs to spot continuation setups. Hanging within the candle points to rangebound action until the close.

Nasdaq technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

Current ATH 26,283 (CFD)
Candle highs 24,925
All-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300
Intermediate resistance and 4H MA 50 25,700 to 25,850
Mini-resistance at 25,500 Gap
Current Pivot 25,050 to 25,200 (immediate resistance and Moving Averages)

Support Levels

24,510 Candle lows
24,500 Main support (testing)
October lows 23,997
Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 Support

S&P 500 4H Chart and Technical Levels

Screenshot 2025-11-19 at 11.44.07 AM — S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart, November 19, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Sellers have stepped back into the positive session to prove their point. After forming some intermediate lows at the 6,570 to 6,600 Key support, what progressively resembles a dead cat bounce is seeing a rejection from the 6,680 to 6,700 Pivot which had been acting as support until now.

Watch if the rejection candle leads to a breakout, with a similar setup as the one in Nasdaq.

Look at the extremes of the candle which acts as the current daily range (6,620 to 6,694).

Any breakout from there should see continuation, while hanging within means further rangebound action.

S&P 500 technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

6,930 (current All Time-Highs)
6,694 session highs
6,680 to 6,700 support now Pivot (session highs)
6,800 Psychological resistance
Resistance 6,720 to 6,750 (testing immediate)

Support Levels

6,620 candle and session lows
6,570 to 6,600 Key support
6,490 to 6,512 Previous ATH now Support (4H MA 200 Confluence)

Safe Trades!

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