UBS lifts 2026 mid-year gold price forecast to $4,500

[Ben Graham]

UBS Group has raised its 2026 mid-year gold price target to $4,500 an ounce, up from $4,200 previously, as the Swiss bank sees further momentum in a rally that has already lifted the metal 56% higher this year.

In a note published Thursday, UBS analysts said the macroeconomic forces behind gold’s recent rise, including Fed rate cuts, geopolitical uncertainties and US policy changes, are expected to keep demand elevated next year.

A worsening US fiscal outlook is likely to sustain central bank and investor gold buying, given its lack of counterparty risk, the UBS analysts said, adding that it expects exchange-traded fund (ETF) demand to remain strong in 2026.

In the upside case, the bank sees gold reaching as high as $4,900 an ounce, which is $200 higher than its previous forecast and about 20% over current levels. Meanwhile, its downside case was kept intact at $3,700 an ounce.

Why analysts see $5,000 gold price

While UBS maintains gold’s investment appeal heading into 2026, it also pointed out several challenges to its bullish outlook, such as a potential Fed hawkishness and the risk of central bank gold sales.

UBS’ improved outlook comes despite gold entering a phase of consolidation after hitting a record high of nearly $4,381 an ounce exactly a month ago. Since then, gold has traded largely between the $4,000-$4,100 level, apart from a brief surge to nearly $4,200 in mid-November.

Similar to this year, UBS said it expects another consolidation at around $4,300 an ounce in late 2026, when the US midterm election ends.

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