EUR/USD. Price Analysis. Forecast. The EUR/USD Pair Holds the Psychological Level of 1.1500

[Ben Graham]

The EUR/USD pair has halted its decline, staying above the round number of 1.1500 as the potential for further decline is limited. This stability comes amid a newly emerging opportunity to strengthen the euro, with cautiously optimistic expectations for the future direction of the European Central Bank's monetary policy.

It is anticipated that the ECB will not change the size or direction of interest rates until the end of 2026, with inflation expected to remain close to the target of 2%, the economy to exhibit steady growth, and unemployment to remain low.

Preliminary reports indicate a rise in activity in the private sector of the Eurozone in November, slightly below the two-year high recorded in October; however, it aligns with expectations and reflects the ECB's cautious outlook on future prospects.

In a statement on Friday, ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasized that the central bank will closely monitor inflation risks and will adjust rates if necessary to keep inflation around the 2% mark.

Gabriel Makhlouf, Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland and a member of the ECB Governing Council, stated on Thursday that the current policy remains justified, and significant changes are not anticipated in the near term unless there are substantial developments.

Additionally, the EUR/USD pair could strengthen amid renewed expectations of a Fed rate cut in December, which is pressuring investor sentiment. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 69% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December, compared to the 44% that markets assessed a week ago.

From a technical standpoint, oscillators on the daily chart are negative, and a drop below the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart favors bears, despite prices holding the psychological level of 1.1500.

The nearest resistance for the price is at the 9-day EMA, while support is at the psychological level of 1.1500. However, for bulls to regain control, they need to overcome the 20-day SMA. Otherwise, the path of least resistance for the pair will remain downward.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com