Zcash’s Rally Hits a Wall as Analysts Warn of a Major Breakdown

[Ben Graham]

The Zcash monster rally is finally showing cracks. After surging more than 1,500 percent since late September, ZEC has slipped nearly 30 percent from its November high of $750, falling into the mid-$550 range and sparking debate over whether the parabolic rise has topped.

Traders now face a market showing early signs of exhaustion and increasing evidence that ZEC’s next decisive move may be lower, not higher. What’s next for Zcash?

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Zcash Technical Structure Signals a High-Risk Reversal Zone, Will It Crash?

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On the four-hour chart, ZEC is confined within a symmetrical triangle, reflecting pure indecision. Normally, this setup can break either direction, but 99Bitcoins analysts say the broader environment tilts heavily toward a bearish resolution.

ZEC is currently holding the 200-EMA, yet the structure is tightening near the triangle’s apex. If the lower boundary breaks, measured-move projections point to the $282 zone. That price cluster aligns with the weekly 20-EMA and the resistance that capped ZEC throughout early October, reinforcing it as a natural retracement level.

(Source: X)

Some chart analysts think the downside could be even deeper:

 “ZEC’s parabola looks identical to BNB’s before its 2021 breakdown,” trader Nebraskangooner said.  “A 60 percent correction is absolutely possible.”

A move of that magnitude would put ZEC into the $220–$280 range…. [insert surprised Pikachu face]

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Could ZEC’s Parabolic Top Mirrors BNB’s 2021 Collapse?

BNB’s run into 2021 followed the same shape. It broke a steep, unsustainable trendline and then entered a multi-month unwind that erased more than half its value. ZEC’s failure to reclaim its parabola last week has led traders to draw the same conclusion: that trend exhaustion is already in motion.

This pattern becomes more dangerous when macro forces align against high-beta assets, and 2025’s landscape is exactly that.

CoinGecko and CoinGlass data show:

• ZEC open interest dropped 19 percent week-over-week, a sign of fast-exiting leverage
• Funding rates flipped negative across major exchanges
• ZEC’s spot volume on Monday was down more than 35 percent from early November highs

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Pump-and-Dump Claims Add More Fuel

Screenshots circulating on X show alleged marketing agencies offering paid campaigns to amplify ZEC narratives, including counterfeit viral headlines that predict ZEC will reach $100,000.

“Fake headlines and manufactured virality are everywhere,” analyst Rajat Soni said.  “It’s classic top-signal behavior.”

(Source: X)

Still, some major figures, including Arthur Hayes and the Winklevoss twins. remain long-term bullish, with Hayes calling for a $10,000 cycle target.

Zcash is at its most fragile point since the rally began. The symmetrical triangle, fading volume, negative funding, and macro headwinds all point to elevated breakdown risk. A sustained move below the lower trendline likely sends ZEC toward the $220–$282 range.

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Key Takeaways

• The Zcash monster rally is finally showing cracks. After exploding more than 1,500 percent since late September.
• Still, some major figures, including Arthur Hayes and the Winklevoss twins. remain long-term bullish.

The post Zcash’s Rally Hits a Wall as Analysts Warn of a Major Breakdown appeared first on 99Bitcoins.