EUR/USD. Analysis and Forecast

[Ben Graham]

Today, on Tuesday, the euro strengthened against the US dollar as weaker-than-expected US economic data weighed on investor sentiment, causing the dollar to weaken. This contributed to a sharp rebound of the euro to a five-day high.

US data, released with a delay, showed that the PPI — the overall Producer Price Index — rose by 0.3% month-over-month in September, in line with expectations after a 0.1% decline in August, while the annual reading remained at 2.7%. However, the core components were weaker.

New comments from Federal Reserve officials also boosted expectations of another rate cut in December, putting additional pressure on the US dollar and creating a supportive environment for the EUR/USD pair. New York Fed President John Williams described current policy as "moderately restrictive" and last Friday noted that the central bank could cut interest rates again in the near future.

Support for monetary policy easing exists among several Fed members. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Monday that, based on current data, the US labor market remains weak enough to justify another 25-basis-point rate cut at the December meeting. In response, traders priced in roughly an 80% probability that the Fed will cut rates as early as next month, which — along with the overall positive risk sentiment — undermines the dollar's position as a safe-haven asset.

Today's US economic indicators also strengthened the likelihood of a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the market is now pricing in roughly an 84% probability of a rate cut in December.

From a technical standpoint, if the bulls break above the 1.1570 level and consolidate above it — with oscillators turning into positive territory — they will gain a chance to continue their advance. The pair will face immediate resistance at 1.1586, followed by the round 1.1600 level. Support will be found at the 9-day EMA near 1.1550; a break below that level would push prices back down toward the psychological 1.1500 level.

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