Copper price extends record run as Citi makes bullish call

[Ben Graham]

Copper extended its record-breaking run on Friday, as Citigroup became the latest to provide a bullish outlook on prices behind the narrative of an impending global supply shortage.

Futures on the London Metal Exchange rose as much as 2.2% to $11,705 a ton, surpassing the previous record high set earlier this week. The industrial metal has been ratcheting up in recent weeks as traders anticipate a supply squeeze caused by stockpiling in the US ahead of potential tariffs.

Copper’s record-breaking week. (Click on chart for live prices.)

The rally received a further boost Friday when Citigroup backed this supply-side narrative, predicting that the global copper deficit created by US inventory buildup will drive prices to $13,000 a ton in the second quarter of 2026.

“We have conviction in copper upside through 2026 supported by multiple bullish catalysts, including an incrementally constructive fundamental and macro backdrop,” Citi analysts led by Max Layton said.

On the demand side, they forecast a 2.5% rise in global end-use consumption next year, citing a lower interest-rate environment and fiscal expansion in the US as drivers of growth, as well as European rearmament and the energy transition.

Supply crunch

The New York-based bank joins a growing chorus of copper bulls including commodity trader Mercuria, which reportedly ordered about $500 million of copper for withdrawal from LME warehouses in preparation for a supply crunch.

Copper inventories at global exchanges have spiked to over 656,000 tons, the highest since 2018, with around 60% held in warehouses under Comex in the US, according to Bloomberg data.

Earlier this week, BloombergNEF released a report forecasting that the copper market is set to enter a structural deficit next year, with the shortfall widening over the next decade on robust demand and constrained supply.

Contrasting views

Some, however, have issued more conservative outlooks for copper. Goldman Sachs said in a note on Thursday that it does not see copper prices staying above the $11,000 level for long, as global supplies of the metal “remain adequate.” A shortage, therefore, is unlikely to happen until at least 2029, it added.

Copper price won’t stay above $11,000 for long, says Goldman

While the metal is expected to remain “volatile” and could easily reach new highs, prices above $11,000 a ton are not sustainable as the global market is not physically tight, Macquarie Group analysts led by Peter Taylor said on the same day.

Copper has gained more than 30% in the London market this year amid a growing exodus of metal into the US in anticipation of import tariffs.

(With files from Bloomberg)