AUD/USD. Analysis and Forecast

[Ben Graham]

Today, the Australian dollar is attracting new buyers in response to aggressive statements from Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock.

From a technical standpoint, the AUD/USD pair is finding some support near the 0.6610–0.6620 level. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart remain firmly in positive territory and are still far from the overbought zone, confirming a constructive short-term outlook for the currency pair. Buying above 0.6650 — the multi-month high reached on Monday — would create conditions for testing the yearly high, a level just above the round 0.6700 level set in September.

On the other hand, weakness in the pair below the round 0.6600 level can be viewed as a buying opportunity near the 0.6560–0.6550 level. Below this area lies the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), around 0.6540–0.6535. Failure to hold these levels would push AUD/USD down toward the psychological 0.6500 level, targeting the 200-day SMA in the 0.6475 level. Inability to defend these support levels would invalidate the positive forecast, shifting the short-term bias in favor of the bears and exposing the multi-month low around 0.6420 reached in November.

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