GBP/USD: Plan for the European Session on December 23. The Pound is Unstoppable

[Ben Graham]

Yesterday, only one entry point into the market was formed. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened. In my morning forecast, I highlighted the level of 1.3402 and planned to make decisions based on it. The rise and breakout at 1.3402 occurred without a retest, so I was unable to get an entry point for long positions. In the afternoon, a false breakout at 1.3443 provided an excellent entry point to buy the pound, resulting in the pair rising by more than 30 pips.

For opening long positions on GBP/USD:

The pound reacted positively to the UK GDP data. The bullish market received support in the afternoon amid rising expectations for further US rate cuts. Today, there is no report from the UK, so sellers of the pound will have much less reason to be active. This is better for buyers. I expect to see their first signs already during a correction around the support level of 1.3452. A false breakout would be a good opportunity to open long positions with the aim of further growth towards the resistance level of 1.3490, where trading is currently taking place. A breakout and retest of this range from above will increase the chances of GBP/USD strengthening, triggering stop orders for sellers and providing an appropriate entry point for long positions, with the potential to reach 1.3525. The furthest target will be around 1.3567, where I plan to take profits. If GBP/USD declines and there is no buying at 1.3452, pressure on the pair will increase, leading to a move towards the next support level at 1.3411. Only a false breakout there would be a suitable condition for opening long positions. I plan to buy GBP/USD on a bounce from the 1.3374 low, targeting an intraday correction of 30-35 pips.

For opening short positions on GBP/USD:

Pound sellers have adopted a wait-and-see stance and are clearly in no hurry to reenter the market. If the pair continues to rise, bears can expect to act around the nearest resistance at 1.3490. A false breakout there will provide grounds for selling GBP/USD, targeting the support level of 1.3452, where slightly lower moving averages are located, favoring the bulls. A breakout and retest from below this range after weak data would deal a more significant blow to buyer positions, leading to stop orders being triggered and opening a path to 1.3411. The furthest target will be the 1.3374 area, where I will take profits. If GBP/USD continues to rise and bears remain inactive at 1.3490, buyers will continue to develop the trend, which could lead to a surge towards 1.3525. I also plan to open only short positions there on a false breakout. If there is no downward movement even there, I will sell GBP/USD immediately on a bounce from 1.3567, but only in anticipation of a downward correction of the pair by 30-35 pips during the day.

Recommendations for Further Reading:

Due to the shutdown in the US, fresh data on the Commitment of Traders (COT) is not being published. As soon as an updated report is prepared, we will publish it immediately. The latest relevant data is only as of December 9.

In the COT report (Commitment of Traders), there was an increase in both long and short positions. The last COT report indicates that long non-commercial positions rose by 8,067 to 60,319, while short non-commercial positions jumped by 3,402 to 135,834. As a result, the spread between long and short positions increased by 23,795.

Indicator Signals:

• Moving Averages: Trading is taking place above the 30-day and 50-day moving averages, indicating further growth for the pound.
• Note: The period and prices of the moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly H1 chart and differ from the general definition of classical daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart.
• Bollinger Bands: In the event of a decline, support will be provided by the indicator's lower boundary around 1.3425.

Description of Indicators:

• Moving Average (period 50): Indicates the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise; marked in yellow on the chart.
• Moving Average (period 30): Indicates the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise; marked in green on the chart.
• MACD Indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Fast EMA - period 12; Slow EMA - period 26; SMA - period 9.
• Bollinger Bands: Period - 20.
• Non-Commercial Traders: Speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions using the futures market for speculative purposes and meeting certain requirements.
• Long Non-Commercial Positions: Represents the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
• Short Non-Commercial Positions: Represents the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
• Total Non-Commercial Net Position: The difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.

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