Bitcoin May Stay Outside Central Bank Vaults, Billionaire Says

[Ben Graham]

According to recent interviews, billionaire investor Ray Dalio has sharpened his caution about Bitcoin’s fit for official reserves while still recognizing its scarce nature.

He said that Bitcoin carries money-like qualities because of its limited supply, but he drew a firm line over who should hold it on a balance sheet.

Dalio said public transaction records and the risk of outside interference make it hard for reserve managers to treat Bitcoin the same way they treat gold.

Dalio Flags Traceability Concerns

Dalio warned that the open ledger that underpins Bitcoin creates vulnerabilities for large custodians. He argued that public transactions can be traced and, in some scenarios, interrupted, which raises concerns for institutions charged with protecting national wealth.

NEW: RAY DALIO SAYS THAT BITCOIN IS “UNLIKELY TO BE HELD SIGNIFICANTLY BY CENTRAL BANKS” – TRANSACTIONS ARE TOO TRANSPARENT, THE GOVERNMENT CAN INTERFERE WITH THEM

pic.twitter.com/NzxrhBzp4m

— DEGEN NEWS (@DegenerateNews) December 20, 2025

He contrasted this with gold, which he said is harder for authorities to control once it is taken out of the formal financial system.

He also raised security worries, including the possibility that Bitcoin could be cracked, broken, or controlled in ways that would alter its long-term usefulness as a store of value.

Stablecoins Seen As Transactional Tools

Based on reports, Dalio also gave a low rating to stablecoins as long-term holdings. He pointed out that stablecoins are tied to fiat currencies and generally do not pay interest, so they work well for quick transfers but not as wealth preservation.

He said he keeps some exposure to Bitcoin personally — “a little bit” — but places gold ahead of it when the goal is an asset shielded from state actions.

Last year, Dalio urged investors to favor scarce assets like gold and Bitcoin over debt instruments as many big economies wrestle with rising debt.

Institutional Demand And Market Signals

Crypto markets are moving closer to mainstream finance with spot Bitcoin ETFs and improved custody services, and market structure is shifting.

BTC will hit $250k by year-end 2027. 2026 is too chaotic to predict, though Bitcoin making new all-time highs in 2026 is still possible. Options markets are currently pricing about equal odds of $70k or $130k for month-end June 2026, and equal odds of $50k or $250k by year-end…

— Alex Thorn (@intangiblecoins) December 21, 2025

According to Galaxy Research, overlapping macro and market risks make Bitcoin unusually hard to forecast in 2026. Galaxy’s team says options pricing and volatility trends show Bitcoin acting more like a macro asset than a pure high-growth gamble.

The same research group nonetheless kept a long-term bullish stance, projecting that Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by the end of 2027.

Macro Signals And Price Outlook

That mix of views highlights a separation between policy suitability and price potential. Dalio’s focus is on whether sovereigns will accept the asset on a reserve ledger; Galaxy’s analysis looks at how markets may price Bitcoin under evolving macro forces.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView