Bitcoin Poised For ‘Boring’ 2025 Close – Here’s When BTC’s Real Test Will Come

[Ben Graham]

After failing to turn the $90,000 area, Bitcoin (BTC) continues to move within its local range with apparent no clear direction. Some market observers have suggested that the flagship crypto will remain rangebound until next year, when its potential moment of truth will come.

Bitcoin Takes Holiday Break

On Christmas Eve Day, Bitcoin continued with its sideways trajectory, trading between the $86,000-$87,000 levels throughout the day. The cryptocurrency has been hovering within the $80,000-$94,000 levels since the late November correction, failing to break out of its one-month range despite earlier attempts.

Notably, BTC’s price has been trading around the mid-zone of its range, moving between the $84,000-$90,000 levels for nearly two weeks. Analyst Ted Pillows noted that Bitcoin “is still in no trading zone,” arguing that if the price doesn’t reclaim the $90,000 resistance area, the price could risk another retest of the $84,000 support.

However, if the support and resistance levels don’t break, it will continue to move within its range until the market’s momentum returns. Meanwhile, Daan Crypto Trades highlighted that December has been “a very boring month all things considered.”

In an X post, he explained that there the broader crypto market had “no major narratives, no major moves. Just a lot of up days followed by down days. With alts bleeding lower in the end and BTC & ETH roughly stable.”

The trader also asserted that it hasn’t been BTC’s best year despite reaching new highs this quarter. He pointed out that “this year was abysmal, especially looking at the risk adjusted returns.”

Nonetheless, he noted that “during years like these, we are taking big steps towards distributing coins from OG large holders and get a more evenly spread supply. Regardless of price action in the short term, that’s always a good thing to see.”

BTC To Breakout Or Breakdown In 2026?

Daan affirmed that Q1 2026 will be the moment where Bitcoin can “try and prove itself” and when everyone will be closely watching the cryptocurrency’s performance to determine whether the cycle is over or not.

Other market watchers have suggested two potential scenarios for BTC’s early 2026 performance. Ted Pillows highlighted that BTC appears to be mirroring its 2021-2022 fractal, which suggests that the flagship cryptocurrency is ultimately entering a bear market.

Per the chart, Bitcoin saw a significant pullback after topping in late 2021. This was followed by brief recovery period at the start of 2022 before the price continued its descending trajectory.

Based on this, the analyst forecasted a rally towards $100,000 at the start of 2026 before its next leg down, which could target the $60,000-$70,000 area. On the contrary, Eljaboom pointed out that BTC could be repeating its performance from the start of the year.

As he noted, BTC displays a multi-month falling wedge pattern on the three-day chart similar to the one that formed between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 and led to the Q3 3035 rally.

If history repeats, the cryptocurrency could retest the pattern’s lower boundary in the coming weeks before breaking out of the formation and potentially moving to new highs by Q2 2026.

As of this writing, Bitcoin trades at $87,350, a 0.5% decline in the daily timeframe.