The 2025 Metal Frenzy: A Year-End Wrap-Up and 2026 Outlook

Ben Graham · 4 horas atrás

It's been a wild ride for Markets throughout 2026.

Most catalysts have revolved around the Trump Administration's tariff madness, Geopolitical conflicts, the endangered Federal Reserve's Independence, the pursuit of an AI frenzy, and the setup of the Debasement Trade.

And one particular asset class has dominated all five of these major yearly themes—a crossroads of multiple factors that have targeted precious metals.

Even with most traders taking their breaks, Platinum (+ 10%!), Gold (+ 1.50%), and Silver (+ 6.50%) are all reaching new all-time highs in today's session.

Screenshot 2025-12-26 at 9.06.38 AM — Gold, Silver and Platinum Daily Charts – December 26, 2025 – Source: TradingView

What helped metals to get where they are?

The first factor is probably the key to most of the others – US President Trump took office on January 20 and, following his program to the letter, began to announce menacing policies to its enemies as well as to its allies.

After intimidating Canada into becoming the 51st state and Greenland being a target for US territorial expansion (threats repeated recently), World leaders have started to doubt the shape of US diplomatic relationships and stability, prompting a significant shift in the US Dollar.

Central Banks have amplified an already begun massive diversification trend after 15 years of global US Dollar asset and currency domination.

The People's Bank of China continued accumulating massive amounts of Gold as Beijing prepared for yet another trade war, leading a wave of influx into the yellow metal.

Gold had already rallied quite extensively as Markets were pricing the end of hiking cycles in 2022 towards asset-boosting cuts, rising from $1,600 to over $4,500 in three years.

Screenshot 2025-12-26 at 12.18.16 PM — Gold (XAU/USD) 3-Day Chart, December 26, 2025 – Source: TradingView

But Gold Wasn't the Central Target

However, Gold wasn't the main target in 2025 – the fact that it sustained its elevated prices even as the Federal Reserve pushed back against rate cuts led to a metals market-wide frenzy.

At the beginning of April, Liberation Day had already triggered a first wave of purchases of the precious commodity, as global policies were forced to become less dependent on the now irrational United States policy. Stock Markets marked a bottom, allowing the AI trend to flourish yet again.

The market had been volatile but relatively calm until August 2025, when the regime-changing Jackson Hole speech from Powell occurred.

Screenshot 2025-12-26 at 7.43.26 AM — Metals Performance in 2025 – Source: TradingView

The Post Jackson Hole Regime Change

After the Symposium, however, Markets concluded that things would not be the same anymore:

The political pressure to cut rates will be harsh, tariffs will put upward pressure on prices yet again, and the Fed's Independence will be even more challenged, prompting immediate fury towards Silver, which then spread to other metals such as Platinum, Palladium, Aluminum and Copper.

The rally in metals naturally spreaded to related Equities like Barrick Gold (B), First Majestic Silver Corp. (AG), and Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM), which have all rallied considerably.

Exacerbated by immense investments in data centers, power cells, and all the wires and technologies required to create the AI world we know today, metals saw Market-changing and non-stop demand, consolidating without retracing much.

Following a calm period in October, the pricing of the December rate cut propelled all metals to all-time highs, and the momentum has continued, even with the ongoing holiday trading.

All primary precious metals have either reached or surpassed multi-year highs, with some if not most even setting new all-time records.

As 2025 comes to an end, it will be interesting to see what 2026 has in store for the markets.

What to watch for the Metals Market in 2026

Central Bank diversification is the first one. Rate cuts are still priced and expected in the US, prompting a further boost as non-yielding assets flourish in the environment.

The US Dollar and US Treasuries still represent the significant holdings of global central banks, and American equities are the dominant attractors of capital. Hence, any outflows in such would provide a fundamental underpin to metal prices.

Geopolitical turmoil may not subside significantly, and Metals represent strong safe havens in such an environment.

Even as conflicts are abating, more are emerging around with the ongoing US-Venezuela tensions, more minor regional conflicts such as Thailand and Cambodia or even the not-seemingly stopping Ukraine-Russia (both nations are huge suppliers of precious metals), but the worst are those which havent made their way to the headlines such as China tensions with japan and Taiwan and Iran potentially making its way to more headlines.

Government debt isn't expected to subside soon, as the new geopolitical regime could exacerbate already high levels of debt, further boosting metals.

But Things will Surely not be a Straight Line to Record Highs

However, some counterarguments could arise.

Are prices overextended compared to the current use and fundamental value of the metals? An eternal question in Markets.

However, looking at the 2025 yearly close, it doesn't appear that demand is stalling for now.

On the other hand, what could make the difference would be if alternative metals begin to squeeze as harshly as Silver and Gold. Platinum and Palladium have begun a catch-up move to their peers. However, metals that still have some room to rally could be copper and aluminum, which are widely used in electronic gear and electricity production.

Are the bottlenecks from huge investments into AI still going to be as big in 2026 as supply tries to catch up to the demand? AI spending may not increase, but it will likely continue at least through 2026 and should maintain a high demand bar in the coming years.

Will potential unseen inflation be a booster or a diminishing factor for metal prices? Inflation, by itself, boosts metal prices as the relative purchasing power of fiat currencies decreases. However, if another wave forms on the surface and central banks start hiking again, metals might experience some stalling.

For example, with the Bank of Japan adopting a progressively more hawkish (yet hesitant) tone, there will be less "cheap" funding for the commodities. Don't forget the Swiss National Bank, which took its rates to 0% in June 2025. It is expected to maintain its rates low for now and will surely have

An unexpected global slowdown could also slow the demand for tech centers, which would imply a lesser demand for industrial metals.

Despite the volatility in geopolitics and trade, consumption and GDP growth continued on a strong upward path in 2025. With Market bubble fears and slowing hiring, economies may experience at least a slowdown, with a tail risk for the worst.

Predicting future flows is a daunting, multi-billion-dollar task where the best in the industry attempt to provide their views on end-2026 prices.

I will provide my attempt at forecasts for the final 2026 prices, along with a bearish and bullish case, to offer hypothetical price ranges for primary traded metals.

The Bullish Case for Metals – Fiat Debasement and Government Deficit continues

Gold $5,500
Silver $80
Platinum $3,000
Palladium $2,750
Copper (per pound): $7.50

The Bearish Case – Global Demand Slows down as Governments back off their High Spending

Gold: $3,500
Silver: $45
Platinum: $1,800
Palladium: $1,700
Copper: $5.00

Even the most bearish scenarios would result in maintaining the current elevated pricing, as government debt and risks remain elevated. AI and technologies should remain top spending directions for global firms, with electricity production taking the metals trade to the next phase.

Things are Subject to significant change as markets are very unpredictable, and the picture will draw progressively as months go by. The rest will be for the future.

One thing is for sure: few could have predicted such an erratic year for Markets in 2025.

Happy New Year celebrations and a final week of the year.

Safe Trades!

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