EUR/USD. Pre-Holiday Flat in Anticipation of FOMC Minutes

[Ben Graham]

The euro-dollar pair has been trading within the 1.1710–1.1800 range for the third consecutive week, that is, within the 17-figure range. Although overall bullish sentiment remains in the pair, as evidenced by the monthly price chart, November saw the pair hit a three-month low at 1.1470 before turning around and climbing more than 300 pips.

Of course, the upward trend has been accompanied by corrective pullbacks, but traders have consistently used those corrections as opportunities to open long positions. As a result, the pair approached the 18-figure boundary and even tested this price barrier.

The holiday period in the currency market is considered a "dead season." Traders have to operate in low liquidity conditions amid an almost empty economic calendar. On Monday, geopolitical issues are in focus, but under prevailing uncertainty, they are unable to set the tone for trading. Negotiations between the U.S. and Ukraine did not result in a clear breakthrough, although both sides remain optimistic and assure the public that the "Gordian knot" will be tied up in the foreseeable future. In the currency market, such vague statements are typically not considered significant informational drivers. Therefore, the EUR/USD pair continues to trade within the aforementioned price range, that is, "inside" the 17-figure.

To resume the upward movement, which implies overcoming the resistance at 1.1810 (the upper line of the Bollinger Bands on the W1 timeframe), traders will need a strong fundamental impulse signaling enhanced dovish sentiment.

It is essential to note that traders are almost certain that the Federal Reserve will maintain all parameters of monetary policy at its January meeting. The probability of this scenario is 82%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Meanwhile, the likelihood of a rate cut at the March meeting currently stands at around 53%. In other words, market participants assess the odds of a rate cut in March as approximately 50/50.

In my view, buyers will solidify above the 1.1810 resistance level only when the balance tilts definitively toward the "dovish" scenario. Therefore, every subsequent release and each macroeconomic report will be viewed through the lens of prospective monetary policy easing. For example, the minutes from the December FOMC meeting will be released on Tuesday, December 30.

The results from the December meeting reminded traders of the persistent disagreements among members of the U.S. central bank. Some focused on inflation risks, advocating keeping interest rates at the current level, while others expressed concerns about the state of the American labor market, leaning toward further easing of monetary policy.

Although the market interpreted the meeting's outcomes negatively for the U.S. dollar, the Fed sent quite contradictory signals. Inflation is no longer an acute issue, but it is not completely defeated either. The labor market remains resilient, though signs of cooling are increasing. In the face of such contradictions, the central bank clearly indicated that future decisions would depend not on intentions but on actual data (NFP, CPI, PCE, PPI, consumer confidence).

In this context, the "FOMC minutes" may either strengthen or weaken the market's dovish sentiment. The dollar will react accordingly, especially against the backdrop of an almost empty economic calendar.

If the minutes emphasize inflation risks, slow price declines, and a willingness to keep rates at their current level, the market will interpret the document as "hawkish." Traders will see this as a signal that the rate will be lowered slowly and cautiously next year.

However, if the minutes highlight concerns about slowing employment growth and/or economic slowdowns, the dollar will come under additional pressure. A dovish tone in the protocol would suggest that the central bank may cut rates again in the first quarter of next year, likely at the March meeting.

Thus, in the face of informational pre-holiday "hunger," the minutes from the December FOMC meeting could provoke volatility in the EUR/USD pair. However, in my opinion, the potential "ups and downs" will occur within the price range of 1.1710–1.1800, that is, within the 17-figure. Ahead of the New Year's hibernation, traders are unlikely to expect a sustained price movement, and they will likely take profits as the price approaches the upper or lower limits of the range, thereby dampening the upward/downward momentum. Therefore, it makes sense to consider short/long positions as the price approaches the upper/lower boundaries of the aforementioned price corridor.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com