Trading Recommendations for Ether (Ethereum) on January 2 According to the ICT System

[Ben Graham]

Ether continues to trade with minimal price changes, as shown on any timeframe. The lull has lasted for several weeks in a row; the holidays have stretched on. However, this should not leave any traders in a stupor or in disappointment. A flat is an absolutely normal phenomenon. And when else would you expect a flat, if not during the holidays?

The most important thing is that the downside prospects remain. Thus, traders can expect a resumption of the decline. Recall that an excellent sell signal was formed for Ether in the form of the worked?off bearish FVG on the daily timeframe. Traders could open short positions on that signal; those positions are in profit, and there are no signals of a possible reversal upward. Positions can be left open or closed to take profit.

Overall, there is nothing more to add from a technical analysis standpoint. The market is turning down, but the reversal is not technical (the technical reversal happened long ago), but mental and psychological. After Bitcoin failed twice to break its ATHs, many began to understand that the uptrend was coming to an end and, in any case, could not last forever. Of course, many "experts" remain who continue to claim that the current decline is only a correction and that Bitcoin will reach new heights in 2026. That may happen. However, remind traders that many in 2025 also forecast growth to $200,000. Such forecasts should at least be halved.

Analysis ETH/USD 1D

On the daily timeframe, Ether continues to form a downward trend. In recent weeks, the price has been standing still, but earlier another bearish FVG was worked off, which gave a new sell signal. No new patterns have formed recently. The CHOCH line runs at $3,666 — the last Lower High. As long as the price remains below it, the downtrend persists. The upward correction may already be complete, since Ether reached its only unworked bearish FVG and received an unambiguous reaction confirmed on the lower timeframe. But now the market is in a Christmas/New Year pause.

Analysis ETH/USD 4H

On the 4-hour timeframe, the upward corrective trend is broken. The CHOCH line has been breached; therefore, the tendency for Ether is bearish on all timeframes. The last pattern on the 4-hour TF was a worked-off bullish FVG. Five reactions to the bullish FVG led to growth, but each time it was very weak. Recall that Ether's structure is bearish even on the 4-hour TF. Therefore, any rise is a correction. Several liquidity grabs strengthened the buy signal, but it can already be considered worked off.

Recommendations for trading ETH/USD:

A downward trend continues to form on the daily TF. The key sell pattern was and remains the bearish Order Block on the weekly TF. The movement provoked by this signal should be strong and prolonged. The correction in the crypto market may be complete. It is not certain that the trend will resume for Bitcoin/Ether from the bearish daily FVG, but that area was where opening short positions was reasonable. On the 4-hour TF, the cryptocurrency can at any moment begin a new leg down, but there are currently no sell signals or new bearish patterns. Decline targets — $2,717 and $2,618 — remain relevant. And these are only the nearest targets. Ether's downside potential is much greater.

Explanations for illustrations:

CHOCH — break of trend structure.

Liquidity — liquidity, traders' Stop Losses that market?makers use to accumulate their positions.

FVG — Fair Value Gap (area of price inefficiency). Price moves through such areas very quickly, indicating the absence of one side in the market. Subsequently, the price tends to return and react to such areas.

IFVG — Inverted Fair Value Gap. After returning to such an area, the price does not get a reaction but impulsively breaks through it and then tests it from the other side.

OB — Order Block. The candle on which a market?maker opened a position with the aim of taking liquidity to form their own position in the opposite direction.

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