Is Cardano Entering a New Phase? Technical Strength, ETF Watch, and Ecosystem Direction Align

[Ben Graham]

Cardano (ADA) is now facing renewed scrutiny following a challenging year marked by significant price losses and a slowdown in ecosystem momentum. Over recent weeks, a combination of technical signals, governance decisions, and regulatory speculation has brought ADA back into focus.

While optimism has returned to parts of the market, the network now faces a critical test: whether short-term recovery can translate into sustained progress across price, adoption, and infrastructure.

Cardano’s (ADA) Technical Signals Suggest Improving Momentum

Cardano’s price action has shown signs of stabilization following a decline of more than 60% in 2025. Currently, ADA formed its first golden cross of 2026, with short-term moving averages crossing above longer-term averages on both hourly and two-hour charts.

ADA has also printed its first positive weekly candle in over two months, reflecting improving sentiment. At the time of writing, the token is trading around the $0.41–$0.416 range, supported by higher futures open interest and daily trading volume near recent highs.

However, price remains capped by resistance near $0.401, a level that aligns with the 50-day moving average and has rejected multiple breakout attempts since late 2024. A sustained move above this zone is widely seen as necessary for further upside toward higher historical ranges.

Governance Funding and Ecosystem Priorities

Beyond charts, Cardano has taken steps to address ecosystem development through governance. A proposal authorizing the withdrawal of 70 million ADA for critical integrations has been ratified by the network’s governing bodies.

The funding is intended to support infrastructure additions such as stablecoin integrations and oracle services, including work related to USDC, USDT, and Pyth. In parallel, the Cardano Foundation has allocated additional resources to boost stablecoin liquidity, a key requirement for competitive DeFi activity.

Founder Charles Hoskinson has emphasized that future success will be measured less by short-term price movement and more by growth in metrics such as active users, total value locked, and real-world usage.

The upcoming Ouroboros Leios upgrade and the planned expansion of the Midnight, a privacy-focused sidechain, are central to this strategy.

ETF Expectations and the 2026 Outlook

Another factor shaping expectations is the prospect of a spot Cardano ETF in the United States. While no application has been approved as of December 2025, products such as the Grayscale Cardano ADA Trust remain under SEC review, with decisions now expected in early 2026.

Previous approvals of Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs have raised expectations, though analysts note that ADA faces additional scrutiny tied to classification debates.

Taken together, Cardano enters 2026 at a pivotal moment. Technical indicators suggest a recovery, governance actions aim to strengthen the ecosystem, and regulatory developments could impact institutional access. Whether these elements align into a durable new phase will depend on execution in the months ahead.

Cover image from ChatGPT, ADAUSD chart from Tradingview