Is Bitcoin’s Famous 4-Year Cycle Finally Breaking Down?

Ben Graham · ontem às 08:30

The famous Bitcoin four-year cycle is losing its grip, according to several market analysts tracking the latest post-halving data. BTC USD failed to deliver its usual explosive rally, rising about +43% after the 2024 halving, while price momentum faded into late 2025 as its key $100k level was lost.

That underwhelming move fits into a broader paradigm shift: now trades less like a volatile startup and more like a macro asset tied to global money flows. For everyday investors, this matters because the old playbook, buy after the halving, sell at the peak, is seemingly no longer a viable strategy.

Governments, trillion-dollar asset managers, ETFs, and global economic shocks now steer the market. Timing matters less. Risk management matters more. This change arrives as U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs absorb supply and macroeconomic headlines swing prices within hours. Bitcoin still moves fast. But it now reacts to the same forces that move stocks, bonds, and currencies.

What is the Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle in Simple Terms?

The four-year cycle came from Bitcoin’s halving. Bitcoin halving (or halvening) is an event where the reward for mining new blocks is halved, meaning miners receive 50% fewer BTC for verifying transactions.

Bitcoin halvings are scheduled to occur once every 210,000 blocks, roughly every four years, until the maximum supply of 21M BTC has been generated by the network.

Bitcoin halvings reduce the supply of new coins, which could drive prices higher if demand remains strong. This has often occurred in the months preceding and following previous halvings, most notably in 2020 and the subsequent bull run in 2021.

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However, the circumstances surrounding each halving differ, and demand for the cryptocurrency can fluctuate sharply in response to macroeconomic conditions, war, and other external factors that can suppress a post-halving pump.

From 2012 through 2021, this pattern looked almost scripted. Prices surged after each halving, then crashed. Beginners learned one rule: wait for the halving, then ride the wave.

That pattern weakened after 2022. Analysts now say adoption matters more than issuance. Bitcoin behaves less like a volatile rollercoaster and more like a mature traditional financial asset.

Why Did the Latest Bitcoin Cycle Disappoint Investors?

Post-halving gains during 2024–2025 reached just +43.4%, the weakest on record, according to MarketWatch. Earlier cycles delivered triple-digit returns.

Following the market-wide crash in late 2025, BTC has fallen below $100,000 and is currently trading at around $90,000, down 28% from its $126,000 all-time high reached in October 2025.

One reason is institutions. ETFs and corporate treasuries withdrew approximately 140,000 BTC from exchanges in 2025. With these institutions firmly in control of the Bitcoin supply, this helped reduce panic selling and a large drawdown, but also diminished the parabolic upside spikes of previous cycles.

The spot bitcoin ETFs are coming into 2026 like a lion, +$1.2 in flows in first two days of year w/ everyone eating. That's a $150b/yr pace. Told ya'll if they can take in $22b when it's raining, imagine when the sun is shining. pic.twitter.com/YdRaLN0Op7

— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) January 6, 2026

Another reason is macro pressure. US trade policy headlines triggered a $ 19Bn crypto liquidation, with ongoing tensions between the US and China fueling fear and uncertainty across both crypto and TradFi markets.

Bitcoin now exhibits behavior similar to that of traditional financial markets, with price swings driven by global news rather than crypto-specific events.

EXPLORE: 16+ New and Upcoming Binance Listings in 2026

What Does This Mean for Bitcoin Investors Going Forward?

Short-term traders lose an edge. Long-term planners gain clarity. Analysts increasingly describe today’s market as a “maturity cycle” driven by steady adoption, not fireworks.

This also explains why Bitcoin’s dominance continues to fluctuate, as evidenced by recent market rotations. Capital flows move where risk is perceived as manageable.

Gautam Chhugani, a senior Bernstein analyst, still models an extended cycle through 2027, but the path looks flatter, with fewer explosive moves and a steady grind toward the $1M mark.

Bernstein analysts aren’t the only ones who believe the Bitcoin cycle structure is broken; many industry professionals have echoed a similar sentiment over the past 12 months, and as long as Bitcoin holds steady above $90,000, a new, extended cycle model could become a reality.

More folks waking up to the fact the 4 year cycle is dead. Bernstein — a major Wall Street institution

Only a matter of time now before one of the biggest rip moves in history pic.twitter.com/gw4li3whFy

— Joe Carlasare (@JoeCarlasare) December 8, 2025

What’s the Risk Most of Us Miss?

Assuming Bitcoin is now “safe.” It is not. Macro-driven markets move fast and punish overconfidence. Big money brings stability, but also sudden exits. ETFs can buy or sell thousands of coins in a day.

The smart response is boring. Dollar-cost averaging. Clear time horizons. Never use money you will need access to in the short-term. Bitcoin did not lose relevance. It grew up. And grown-up markets reward discipline over short-term hype.

The well-known Ken Fisher quote, “Time in the market beats timing the market,” has never been more relevant for Bitcoin, as the leading digital asset has moved from a risky, speculative asset to an established investment vehicle, supported by Governments and trillion-dollar asset managers.

DISCOVER: 99Bitcoins’ Q4 2025 State of Crypto Market Report

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