GBP/USD Forecast on January 12, 2026

[Ben Graham]

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued its decline on Friday after consolidating below the 1.3437–1.3470 level. Today, a rebound of quotes from this zone from below will once again work in favor of the US dollar and a further decline of the pair toward the next support level at 1.3352–1.3362. A consolidation above the 1.3437–1.3470 level would allow traders to expect a resumption of the trend toward the 1.3526–1.3539 level and the 1.3595 level.

The wave structure remains "bullish." The last completed upward wave broke the previous peak, while the new downward wave has not yet broken the previous low. The news background for the British pound has been weak in recent weeks, but the news background in the United States also leaves much to be desired. Bears have been on the offensive over the past few days, but a breakdown of the bullish trend will occur only below the 1.3403 level.

Friday's news background caused a very strange market reaction. First of all, it is worth noting the generally very weak price movements, which are uncharacteristic for days with such important economic statistics. I would also note that the US labor market data can hardly be interpreted as positive. The number of new jobs in the Nonfarm Payrolls report came in at a low level (only 50 thousand) and was even below forecasts. At the same time, the unemployment rate fell to 4.4%, but I believe this is little consolation for the dollar and the US economy. The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6% a month earlier. Then the November figure was revised to 4.5%, and based on December results, the indicator declined by only 0.1%. There is no visible trend toward a reduction in unemployment. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose slightly to 54.0 points, but it was unlikely to offset the negative Nonfarm Payrolls report. Thus, I believe a decline in the dollar on Friday would have been more logical. However, what did not happen on Friday may happen this week, since the entire US news background (geopolitics, economy) cannot help but disappoint in 2026.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair returned to the support level at 1.3369–1.3435. A rebound from this zone would again work in favor of the British pound and a resumption of growth toward the next Fibonacci level of 127.2% at 1.3795. A consolidation below the 1.3369–1.3435 level would allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the US dollar and a decline toward the support level at 1.3118–1.3140. No emerging divergences are observed today.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became more bullish over the last reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 6,994, while the number of short positions increased by 4,325. The gap between the number of long and short positions currently stands at approximately 76 thousand versus 107 thousand and is narrowing rapidly. Bears have dominated in recent months, but the British pound appears to have already exhausted its downside potential. At the same time, the situation with euro contracts is the exact opposite. I still do not believe in a bearish trend for the pound.

In my view, the British pound still looks less "dangerous" than the dollar. In the short term, the US currency may occasionally enjoy demand in the market, but not in the long term. Donald Trump's policies have led to a sharp decline in the labor market, and the Federal Reserve is forced to pursue monetary easing to stop the rise in unemployment and stimulate job creation. US military aggression also does not add optimism for dollar bulls.

US and UK Economic Calendar:

On January 12, the economic calendar contains no noteworthy events. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Monday will be absent.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:

Selling the pair is possible today on a rebound from the 1.3437–1.3470 level on the hourly chart, with a target at 1.3352–1.3362. Buying can be considered today if the pair consolidates above the 1.3437–1.3470 level on the hourly chart, with a target at 1.3526–1.3539.

Fibonacci grids are constructed from 1.3470–1.3010 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.

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