Anxiety is rising in Markets – North American mid-week Market update

Ben Graham · 3 horas atrás

Mid-Week review where we dive into the major developments for North American and global traders
Uncertainty is making its way back, hurting US indexes while others rally
Both the US Dollar and Canadian Dollar are strengthening from the geopolitical developments

Log in to our mid-week North American Markets overview, where we examine the current themes in North America and provide an overview of indices and currency performances.

Last week's exuberance could have been a real trap for investors, as things changed drastically in a matter of days.

The first story of the week began over the weekend, when Markets discovered through an unusual Federal Reserve address that Chair Jerome Powell is under investigation by the US Department of Justice.

Officially, this is due to erroneous statements made during his bi-yearly testimony to the Senate.

But everyone knows it's not because of this.

The real reason lies with the Trump Administration, particularly the President's discontent regarding the still-too-high US Fed Funds Rate (which forms the basis for almost all credit rates in the US, also acting as the global risk-free rate).

These are inefficient or even dangerous tactics.

Not only could they undermine Fed independence—vital for markets, the Dollar, and inflation stability—but they also set a rough-looking precedent for any established US institution.

Furthermore, the Federal Reserve operates on a voting system; so even firing the Chair could have a minimal impact on the FOMC rate decision, but it would surely have a high impact on risk appetite and stability.

powell firing — Betting Markets odds of Powell's firing from the Board of Governors – Source: Kalshi

In Monday's trading, however, things were largely overlooked by investors even as the CPI release loomed.

Regarding that CPI report: despite the 0.3% (as-expected) rise, the year-over-year picture is far from worsening, helping to ease some inflationary fears.

But looking at today's FedSpeak, the battle is far from over.

The Beige Book, which was just released, showed a "modest pace" of increase in economic activity across most districts.

It is tough to justify rate cuts in this environment without further hurting the Dollar's credibility.

But the real hammer on the market was a combination of this higher political instability and the developments in Iran.

Now lasting for almost a month, the revolts have led to 12,000+ civilian casualties, which is increasingly prompting calls for US intervention.

If Venezuela made the case for a strong presence in South America, "Monroe Doctrine" style, this situation could have a significantly higher impact on global stability.

For now, it is at least impacting Oil (up 10% since last week), volatility, and investor sentiment.

Stock Indexes are plunging in today's session, particularly in the higher-beta sectors, with the Mag 7s getting dumped hard.

Let's dive right into our Mid-Week North American Markets recap.

North-American Indices Performance

index perf 1401 — North American Top Indices performance since last Monday – January 14, 2026 – Source: TradingView

Despite the attacks on the Fed, the US Dollar is up against all OECD majors at the exception of a highly performing Chinese Yuan.

The Dollar seems to be at the center of Safe-Haven flows in the current geopolitical landscape.

Dollar Index Daily Chart

DXY mid week 1401 — Dollar Index Daily Chart, January 14, 2026 – Source: TradingView

The US Dollar is stabilizing at its relative 2026 highs.

Now coming close to a main resistance zone and key Moving Averages stabilizing (indicating stalling momentum), the test will be to see if it really stands out as a Safe-Haven in the event of any attack.

Levels of interest for the Dollar Index:

Resistance Levels

Immediate Resistance 99.25 to 99.50
100.00 to 100.50 Main Resistance Zone
100.376 November highs

Support Levels

98.50 to 98.80 Intraday Pivot Zone
98.00 Key support (+/- 100 pips)
December Lows 97.75
97.40 to 97.80 August Range Support
2025 Lows 96.40 to 96.80 Support

US Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors

USD weekly perf — USD vs other Majors since last Monday, January 14, 2026 - Source: TradingView

Despite the attacks on the Fed, the US Dollar is up against all OECD majors at the exception of a highly performing Chinese Yuan.

The Dollar seems to be at the center of Safe-Haven flows in the current geopolitical landscape.

Canadian Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors

Cad weekly perf 1401 — CAD vs other Majors, January 14, 2026 - Source: TradingView.

The Loonie is coming back after its past week’s poor performance, only down against the US Dollar since last Wednesday.

Venezuela’s events were bearish on the CAD due to similar oil products being available in the country.

Nevertheless, Oil giants are expressing their uncertainties regarding the exploitability of Venezuelan oil, leading to mean-reversion for the Canadian currency.

This combination with rising WTI prices boosts the CAD.

Intraday Technical Levels for the USD/CAD

USDCAD Midweek 1401 — USD/CAD Daily Chart, January 14, 2026 – Source: TradingView

USD/CAD rallied spectacularly since the end of December, but is rejecting the 1.39 Psychological level.

Now contained between its 50 and 200-Day moving averages, look for breakouts with daily closes either above or below the technical indicators.

Levels of interest for USD/CAD:

Resistance Levels

50-Day MA and psychological level 1.39
Major Pivot 1.3870 to 1.39 (rejecting)
1.40 to 1.4050 Key Resistance

Support Levels

200-Day MA 1.38425
1.38 Pivotal Support
Major Support Zone 1.3650 to 1.37
December 26 lows 1.36430
1.3550 Main 2025 Support

US and Canada Economic Calendar for the Rest of the Week

Screenshot 2026-01-14 at 2.58.15 PM — US and Canadian Data for the rest of the week, MarketPulse Economic Calendar

Stay in touch with the latest geopolitical developments, as they surely will lead Market Flows towards the end of the week.

Safe Trades!

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