USD/JPY: Tips for Beginner Traders on January 21st (U.S. Session)

[Ben Graham]

Trade Review and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The test of the 158.02 price level occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly downward from the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar.

Today there is a very important event that could directly affect the U.S. dollar. A speech by Trump is expected, which could have a serious impact on the global geopolitical situation and on economic relations between the United States and other countries.

The Greenland issue is currently in the spotlight. It is quite likely that Trump will once again try to revive the topic of purchasing the island, which could provoke a mixed reaction from the Kingdom of Denmark, whose sovereignty over Greenland is not in doubt. This could lead to a flow of capital out of the dollar into other currencies, including the Japanese yen, pushing the USD/JPY pair lower. Trump's speech in Davos is not only a platform to voice his position, but also an opportunity to establish dialogue with European partners. However, given Trump's unpredictability and his sharp statements in the past, it is difficult to predict what kind of rhetoric he will choose.

As for U.S. data, figures on changes in pending home sales and construction spending are expected in the second half of the day. These indicators are unlikely to have a strong impact on the direction of the pair.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY upon reaching the entry point around 158.17 (green line on the chart), with a growth target at 158.73 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 158.73, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (aiming for a 30–35 point move from the level). Continued growth of the pair can be expected in line with the trend.Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 157.91 price level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. A rise toward the opposite levels of 158.17 and 158.73 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after a break below the 157.91 level (red line on the chart), which could lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 157.41 level, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (aiming for a 20–25 point move from the level). Pressure on the pair may return at any moment today.Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just starting to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 158.17 price level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 157.91 and 157.41 can be expected.

What's on the Chart

• Thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – estimated price level where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – estimated price level where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to focus on overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when making market entry decisions. Ahead of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com