GBP/USD. Analysis and Forecast

[Ben Graham]

The GBP/USD pair has slightly pulled back from the January high reached during the Asian session near 1.3680, closing the small bullish gap that formed at the beginning of the week. At present, spot prices are showing moderate intraday gains, holding above 1.3660 and maintaining potential for further strengthening.

The dollar remains under pressure amid political uncertainty in Washington. Statements by President Donald Trump about intentions to establish control over Greenland and growing disagreements with European allies have heightened concerns over the stability of NATO alliances. The erosion of confidence in U.S. global leadership has once again revived the "Sell America" strategy, pushing the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) to a four-month low and providing support for the pound.

Expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut rates twice more in 2026 are increasing pressure on the dollar, while stronger-than-forecast UK economic data are reducing the likelihood of near-term policy easing by the Bank of England. This combination of factors supports a short-term bullish bias in GBP/USD.

Nevertheless, the dollar is attempting a partial recovery as market participants reduce short positions ahead of the FOMC meeting scheduled for Wednesday. Investors are awaiting new signals on the future path of Fed monetary policy, which may determine the direction of the currency in the coming days.

Additional attention today will be focused on U.S. durable goods orders data, which could trigger short-term exchange-rate volatility.

From a technical perspective, the nearest support level is now 1.3640, while resistance is located at the January high of 1.3680, ahead of the psychological 1.3700 level. Oscillators on the daily chart remain positive; however, it is worth noting that the Relative Strength Index is moving into overbought territory, suggesting the possibility of a corrective pullback or consolidation before the next move.

Over the past seven days, the dollar has strengthened only against the Canadian dollar, remaining weaker against all other major currencies.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com