Bitcoin Needs Deeper Liquidity Before A Real Recovery Takes Shape: Analysts

[Ben Graham]

Bulls kept a collapse from happening this week when Bitcoin found buying interest above the mid-$80,000s. Prices bounced off a key range, and that breathing room has traders watching the market’s plumbing — not just the headline price.

Reports note that the path to a lasting recovery is likely to go through improved liquidity, with market watchers pointing to on-chain measures as the real signal to watch.

At Center Stage: Market Structure And Liquidity

Glassnode and other analysts have flagged a tight snapshot of supply stress: roughly 22% of circulating Bitcoin is sitting below its purchase price, which raises the chance that outsized selling could kick in if support fails. That’s a nontrivial share of coins that could change hands under pressure.

Any meaningful transition back toward a strong market rally should be reflected in liquidity-sensitive indicators such as the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio (90D-SMA). A sustained rise above ~5 has historically signalled a renewal of liquidity inflows into the market.… https://t.co/ct0FhOLFXh pic.twitter.com/JqbfdlRk2b

— glassnode (@glassnode) January 28, 2026

The specific metric now being watched is the realized profit/loss ratio on a 90-day basis. Historical episodes of steady recoveries have tended to line up with this ratio moving above about 5, which many analysts treat as a sign that real money is rotating back into the market. A repeat of that pattern would make rallies more durable; until then, rallies look vulnerable to being trimmed.

According to a post shared on X, Glassnode said focus has moved toward liquidity after Bitcoin managed to defend the $80,700 to $83,400 support zone.

Reports note that any move toward a lasting rally would need to show up in liquidity-based signals, with close attention on the 90-day moving average of the realized profit and loss ratio.

Bitcoin Price Action And Geopolitics

Midweek trading left Bitcoin in a cautious band near the high-$80,000s. Geopolitical headlines have been shaking risk appetite, nudging some traders into safer assets and prompting short bursts of volatility.

That has kept follow-through buying muted even when prices test higher levels, and it helps explain why some short-term bets are focused on a squeeze toward the low-$90,000s before profit-taking reappears.

Flows Into Exchanges Still Low

Exchange inflows, a rough barometer of selling pressure, remain subdued. Data shared by market trackers shows monthly BTC inflows to Binance at levels far below the long-term average — only a fraction of what was typical in past years — suggesting many holders are choosing to keep coins off exchanges rather than move them for sale. That reduces immediate downside risk, but it does not prove that buyers will step in en masse.

Futures And The Risk Of A Liquidity Grab

Futures markets and options positioning hint at a possible short-term liquidity grab near the low-$90,000s, where stops and leverage cluster and can be pulled into a quick move. Such moves are often violent and brief. They can create the impression of a breakout, only for spot markets to settle back once the extra liquidity is consumed.

Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView