XRP Must Hold This Level To Avoid Transition To Macro Bear Structure

[Ben Graham]

The XRP price was caught in the latest crypto market-wide selloff, falling to an intraday low of $1.57 within the past 24 hours. The sudden drop brings into focus XRP’s higher-timeframe structure, which is teasing a break below the 33-month exponential moving average. 

According to a technical assessment shared on X by crypto analyst Egrag Crypto, the recent drop below the 33-month exponential moving average does not automatically signal the end of XRP’s cycle, but XRP must close above an exact level to avoid a macro bearish confirmation.

The 33 EMA Breakdown Signal

At the time of writing, XRP is back to trading around $1.65, stabilizing after a volatile few hours that forced many traders to reassess the broader structure. However, according to technical analysis by Egrag Crypto, the most recent crash saw XRP breaking a bit below the 33 EMA on the monthly candlestick timeframe chart.

Egrag based the recent price action around one critical condition: a confirmed monthly close below $1.60 and the 33 EMA. According to the analyst, such a close would mark a macro bearish confirmation based on historical structure, not sentiment or opinion. 

The chart he shared highlights how XRP has respected the 33 EMA as a long-term trend reference across multiple cycles, with violations often preceding extended corrective phases. As shown in the chart below, the XRP price has been trading above the 33-EMA since early 2025, even during periods of corrections. However, XRP is now trading dangerously close to this EMA, and there is now a risk of a breakdown.

XRP Price Chart. Source: @egragcrypto On X

What This Means For XRP’s Price Structure

There’s a risk that XRP can transition into a macro bear structure. At the same time, there’s enough reason to suggest an upside bounce for the cryptocurrency. A major point in Egrag’s analysis is historical performance that shows XRP’s strongest upside expansions did not require a clean bull-market environment.

Therefore, there are two historical analogs of how XRP can play out from its current range around $1.60. The first is a repeat of the 2021-style move. This move, measured from similar structural conditions, would imply an upside expansion of roughly 340% with a price target around the $7 region.

The second one is a repeat of the 2017 cycle. Comparison to the 2017 cycle projects a much larger structural expansion of about 1,600%, which would align with the $27 zone highlighted on the chart above. In both cases, the rallies originated from oversold conditions and compression ranges, not from a strong bullish macro confirmation like many would expect.

According to the analysis, a breakdown below $1.60 could still lead to panic selling and reinforce fear narratives of a macro bear market, yet those same conditions have previously been the zones where late sellers exit just before volatility expands upward.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView