Kazatomprom plans 9% uranium output rise this year

[Ben Graham]

Kazatomprom (LSE: KAP), the world’s top uranium producer forecasts output will rise about 9% to 71.5 to 75.4 million lb. this year compared to last year.

The increase is mostly due to ramp up at the Budenovskoye joint venture in southern Kazakhstan which Kazatomprom holds with Russia, the company said in a release on Monday.

That uranium oxide (U₃O₈) production range is 5% lower than its state-granted amount but 6% higher than BMO Capital Market estimates, analyst Alexander Pearce said in a note.  

“The update could see some modest pressure on uranium prices via a slightly reduced supply deficit near-term,” Pearce said.

The Kazakh state-owned miner forecasts sales guidance in 2026 of 50.7 million to 53.3 million lb. U₃O₈, which is close to BMO’s forecast of 52 million lb. of uranium.

Spot price up 5%

The guidance rise positions Kazatomprom to take advantage of rising spot uranium prices, which grew about 5.5% over the full year to close at $63.50 per lb. U₃O₈ at the end of December. Sitting at $99.25 per lb. on Monday, the spot price is at its highest level in two years. The price movement last year was in contrast to 2024, when it fell by about 14%.

Increases in the spot price help incent uranium exploration, nuclear energy development and physical holdings of the energy metal, with the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (TSX: U.U for USD; U.UN for CAD) last week buying 500,000 lb. of U₃O₈. That, along with several other uranium purchases in the quarter marked its highest first-quarter buy in three years.

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Output up 10%

In last year’s fourth quarter, the miner booked 9.6 million lb. of U₃O₈ in attributable output, 10% higher than in the previous quarter and 6% higher than BMO estimates, Pearce said. 

However, Kazatomprom’s average realized price of $64.18 per lb. for the quarter was 9% under BMO estimates and came at a 20% discount to the average spot price of about $80 per lb. in the quarter.

“This likely partially reflects timing of shipments and volatility of spot in the quarter,” Pearce said.

Kazatomprom’s shares were down about 4% to $78.60 apiece on Monday afternoon in London, for a market capitalization of $22.7 billion.