NZDUSD tests the edge of its range as USD buying pressure builds

[Ben Graham]

APAC currencies have struggled over the past month, with NZD among the laggards amid a strong US Dollar comeback.

The FOMC kept rates unchanged at its latest meeting yesterday, and FX Markets are now preparing for the upcoming RBNZ decision, slated for August 14.

NZDUSD has been relatively rangebound within a 2-handle zone since May, following a sharp April down-move sparked by volatility around Trump's infamous Liberation Day.

Before attacking the multi-timeframe technical analysis of NZDUSD, here is a small reminder that this morning, the reports for the Core PCE—which came slightly above expectations (2.8% y/y vs 2.7% estimate)—and an as-expected Canadian GDP (-0.1% m/m) also got released, both of which helped anchor further USD flows.

For the Kiwi, tonight’s NZ Consumer Confidence and Building Permits data will provide insight into local momentum heading into August's policy window.

Read More: US Dollar back on top — North American Mid-Week Market Update

NZDUSD Multi-timeframe technical analysis

NZDUSD Daily Chart

NZDUSD Daily Chart, July 31, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Bears have taken control of the Kiwi throughout July sending the pair down around 3.50% from its 2025 Highs as the month concludes – NZDUSD has also recently broken out of a Monthly upwards Channel (light blue)

The Daily picture is not showing many signs of reversals after forming a strong bearish inverted hammer.

The pair is now entering the Main 0.59 Support Zone, surely prompting reactions as Month-end flows commence – Daily RSI is flattening just above the oversold level.

Looking closer will allow us to spot if more balanced price action is into play here.

NZDUSD 4H Chart

NZDUSD 4H Chart, July 31, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The downwards correction had taken a small break in the beginning of last week but got met with another sharp response which marked some lower highs (0.60580) right below the Monthly Channel.

One element that would give back some balance for NZD buyers would be the reactions at the highs of the July Hourly steep downwards channel that also got broken, within the 0.59 Support Zone.

Failure to rebound from here would maintain seller strength – Looking at the Dollar Index would be very beneficial also to spot reactions as the Index arrives at the 100.00 level.

NZDUSD 1H Chart

NZDUSD 1H Chart, July 31, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Looking even closer, we spot reactions to the Support Zone that is currently being tested at a break-retest of the Hourly downwards channel, last line of defense for the Monthly range.

Buyers are stepping in, attempting to form a hourly double bottom at the 0.5890 level.

Momentum is coming back slightly from oversold levels, therefore reactions here are key.

A 4H Candle closing below the daily lows would cancel the double bottom formation, but in the meantime, the action looks more balance in shorter timeframes

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