Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Just Turned Red For The First Time Since May — What This Means

[Ben Graham]

Coinbase’s Bitcoin premium has dropped into negative territory for the first time since May. This development is bearish for the flagship crypto as it suggests that demand from the U.S. may be waning. 

Coinbase Bitcoin Premium In The Red

CryptoQuant data shows that the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index is at -0.00254829, marking the first time it has been in the red since May 29, when it was at -0.01626105. This Index tracks the difference between the Bitcoin price on Coinbase and the Bitcoin price on Binance. It is also used to gauge the spot demand for BTC from institutional and retail investors in the U.S. 

As such, this development suggests that the demand for BTC among U.S. investors is currently low. This is significant considering that Bitcoin rallies to new highs have coincided with the Coinbase premium being in positive territory. This highlights how much demand from the U.S. contributes to BTC’s uptrend. 

In recent times, this demand has mainly come from the Bitcoin ETFs, with Coinbase acting as a custodian for eight out of the eleven spot BTC funds. Notably, the drop in the Coinbase Bitcoin premium coincides with the drop in the net inflows and increase in outflows from these funds. 

SoSo Value data shows that these funds recorded net outflows of $114.83 million on July 31. Before now, they had also gone on a 3-day streak of consecutive net outflows between July 21 and 23. This indicates a wave of profit-taking among these investors, especially following the recent Bitcoin rally to a new all-time high (ATH) of $123,000. 

In an X post, CryptoQuant also confirmed this wave of profit-taking. The platform revealed that Bitcoin just saw its third major profit-taking wave of this bull run. Realized profits spiked to between $6 and $8 billion in late July, similar to March and December 2024 peaks. CryptoQuant added that it was new whales who led the selling above $120,000. 

New Investor Dominance Is Growing With Market In Stable Condition

In a CryptoQuant on-chain analysis, analyst Axel revealed that new investor dominance is growing and that the market is still stable in this late Bitcoin bull cycle phase. He alluded to the demand and supply between new and old investors metric and noted that the peaks of 64% in March 2024 and 72% in December 2024 coincided with local price maximums. 

The analyst noted that during those periods, the influx of new liquidity into Bitcoin was exhausted, and old holders began actively taking profits. However, this time is different, as the current value of the demand and supply between new and old investors is 30%, which is only half of the overheated levels. 

Axel added that the trend is directed upward as the cumulative activity of young coins has been steadily growing since July 2024. The analyst remarked that this indicates that a notable layer of new buyers is entering the Bitcoin market. Meanwhile, pressure from the old holders is not yet critical. 

At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $115,550, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.