Mean reverting markets ahead of the US CPI release – Market wrap for the North American session - August 11

[Ben Graham]

Markets have opened the week with relatively subdued movements as players brace for tomorrow's major US CPI release.

It will be the first US major data since past Tuesday's Services PMI which missed and sent the US Dollar into another round of downside correction.

Since the US Weekly opening bell, Equity markets have failed to hold their overnight future highs as profit-taking sets ahead of the CPI data.

For those who haven't taken a look, the Headline CPI is expected at a +0.2% print (to +2.8% y/y) and a core print of +0.3% to +3% year-over-year.

Any beat (+0.1 %) will send markets ablaze, and participants may start to price out the September cut. You can check out some potential reactions in the US Dollar right here.

In term of geopolitics, Trump announced that Gold would not see any tariffs which sent the precious metal down about 1.5% on the session – More movement can be expected, both ways, depending on the outcome of tomorrow's CPI – Gold gets influenced on interest rates expectations.

Markets also await the Trump-Putin meeting happening on Friday in Alaska to try to negotiate further for a truce in Ukraine.

Read More: Oil retreats back just above May’s trading range

Daily Cross-Asset performance

Cross-Asset Daily Performance, August 11, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The session has been fairly volatile with most assets mean-reverting from their past week moves – Equities, Gold and Cryptos retract after their decent past week and Oil, as the US Dollar both reverted higher.

It will be interesting to spot the reactions to tomorrow's CPI release. Brace up!

A picture of today's performance for major currencies

Currency Performance, August 11 – Source: OANDA Labs

The US Dollar keeps rebounding in today's session after establishing an intermediate bottom on Friday.

The CHF which had overperformed against the greenback is seeing consecutive sessions of lag – It will be essential to see if this becomes a trend of not.

A look at Economic data releasing in tonight and tomorrow's sessions

For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar.

After today's calm session, the calendar is absolutely packed.

Starting at 00:30, the overnight session offers the Royal Bank of Australia rate decision where a cut is about 98% priced. Communications from the RBA will be watched closely. You can check our latest analysis for AUDUSD right here.

Shortly after, at 2:00 the overnight session continues with the UK employment data in the overnight session (2:00 AM. ET), we will see if the GBP had reasoning behind its post-cut rally, particularly as the Bank of England was hesitant to cut.
Any miss on the 4.7% unemployment rate should put cuts right back on the table after getting priced out since Thursday's BoE meeting.

At 5:00 A.M., traders will see the release of European consumer sentiment, a mid-tier data which is always good to monitor.

But what markets have been expecting the most, is the US CPI release, coming up at 8:30. Reactions will be huge.
Any miss will keep confirming the September cut while adding some throughout the final FED meetings of the year.

On the other hand, a beat would take out September which should drag down risk assets (reactions could be entirely different.

Safe Trades and successful trading week!

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