Dogecoin About To Explode? On-Chain Models Hint At A Massive Rally

[Ben Graham]

An emerging set of on-chain and market structure signals suggests Dogecoin could be coiling for a fresh advance, according to analytics platform Alphractal, which published a new chart pack and methodology notes on X on August 21. The firm argues that miner resilience, a stable “Network Stress Index,” and model-derived bands such as Alpha Price and CVDD have lined up in a way that historically preceded major DOGE trend accelerations.

$1 Dogecoin Back In Play?

“Dogecoin’s miners remain incredibly resilient, with hash rate activity pushing toward record highs,” Alphractal wrote, before posing the core question animating its latest study: “Could trading around True Market Mean Price and models like Alpha Price and CVDD pave the way for a potential new all-time high in DOGE?”

At the foundation of the call is a composite gauge the firm calls the Network Stress Index. It blends three dimensions of chain health and pressure—“Fee Stress (fees / market cap – 40% weight), Hash Stress (30-day hash rate volatility – 30% weight), [and] Supply Stress (7-day active supply volatility – 30% weight).”

As Alphractal summarizes the read-through: “Higher values suggest potential instability or major transitions. Lower values reflect a balanced network across economic, security, and activity dimensions.” In the current regime, the firm says the indicator “signals stability — showing no warning signs of network risk.”

Beyond raw network conditions, Alphractal overlays two valuation and cycle tools it says have been reliable for UTXO chains such as DOGE, Bitcoin and Litecoin. “Our Alpha Price model works like a magnetic force for sentiment,” the firm noted, describing a behavioral anchor that price tends to respect over time.

It pairs that with an adjusted version of Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD), a metric that tracks the age-weighted value of coins moving on-chain. “Our advanced CVDD adjustment has proven to be one of the most accurate tools for identifying tops and bottoms in UTXO blockchains like DOGE, BTC, and LTC,” Alphractal wrote.

Where those models sit today is central to the thesis. “Currently, the CVDD Top sits at $0.54, but it can climb higher as dormant Dogecoins move — potentially pushing targets above $1,” the post states. The implication is explicitly conditional: if a rally entices long-inactive supply to circulate, the top band would ratchet upward, turning $0.54 from a ceiling into what Alphractal calls “just the starting floor, with euphoric network activity driving further upside.”

The firm frames miner posture as a reinforcing pillar. With hash rate activity “pushing toward record highs,” the view is that security spend and miner participation leave the network well positioned “for a surge in global demand.” That strength, together with price action clustering near what Alphractal labels True Market Mean Price, is presented as the setup phase that has preceded prior Dogecoin expansions on the attached Network Stress, Alpha Price, and CVDD charts dated August 21.

Even so, the message is not unqualifiedly bullish. Alphractal closes with a risk caveat tailored to crypto’s current market microstructure: “This opportunity may be sustainable… Still, with leverage building across crypto markets, traders must remain cautious of sudden traps and mass liquidations as DOGE gains momentum.” In other words, while the model complex sketches a constructive backdrop, positioning and derivatives dynamics could inject sharp downside shocks along the path.

Taken together, Alphractal’s work posits a simple, testable roadmap: a stable network, resilient miners, and price hewing to historically meaningful on-chain bands create room for upside, with the CVDD “Top” currently marked at $0.54 and mechanically capable of rising toward and “above $1” if dormant supply awakens. Whether Dogecoin converts that setup into a full breakout will hinge on the interplay between organic spot demand and a leveraged market prone to abrupt squeezes in both directions.

At press time, DOGE traded at $0.218.