Crypto Volatility Alert: Friday’s US Jobs Report Could Trigger Major Move

[Ben Graham]

The August US labor readings have turned Friday’s nonfarm payrolls into a live-fire macro event for crypto. On Wednesday, ADP’s private payrolls rose by just 54,000—well under the forecast—and job openings have slipped on the latest JOLTS print, sharpening focus on whether the Federal Reserve will confirm a long-telegraphed September rate cut.

Why Tomorrow Could Be Crucial For The Crypto Market

As crypto analyst Kevin (Kev Capital TA) put it, “JOLTS report indicates that job openings are slightly weakening. This will catch the attention of the Fed. Labor market report on Friday just got bigger in terms of importance.”

He added today that “very low volume and very little liquidity [are] flowing around… classic August/September behavior while the markets wait for key economic data and monetary policy updates going into Q4,” stressing that “price action will likely be mediocre at best” until the FOMC meeting on September 17.

The data backdrop is decisively softer. ADP’s August report showed private-sector employment increased by 54,000 and annual pay rose 4.4% year-over-year; July was revised to a 106,000 gain. The miss versus expectations underscores a cooling trend into Friday’s official Employment Situation release.

Separately, initial jobless claims climbed to 237,000 in the week ended August 30, up 8,000 from the prior week, while the BLS’s July JOLTS showed job openings at 7.2 million, down from a revised 7.4 million in June, with declines led by health care and retail. Together these indicators argue that labor demand is easing and that slack is edging higher.

The calendar makes the stakes plain. The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases August nonfarm payrolls on Friday, September 5, at 8:30 a.m. ET, and the FOMC meets on September 16–17, with a press conference scheduled on the 17th. As of today, derivatives markets imply that a quarter-point cut in September is overwhelmingly priced.

In other words, the next incremental move in crypto is less about whether the Fed cuts and more about how Friday’s labor internals—headline payrolls, unemployment rate, and labor-force participation—reshape the expected path of cuts into year-end. Price action mirrors the wait-and-see tone that Kevin describes.

Liquidity is thin intraday and reactive to headlines, a profile that often produces range maintenance rather than trend extension into marquee macro releases. For altcoins, rate-path expectations and dollar moves typically dictate beta.

When a user asked Kevin for “the next target for DOGE when we get the rate cut on the 17th?”, he answered bluntly: “That rate cut is already priced into the market my friend.” The logic is consistent with futures-implied probabilities; a “cut confirmed” headline is less catalytic than a deviation in the odds for additional easing after September. DOGE itself is hovering near $0.216 intraday, and like the broader market it has been tracking bitcoin’s range as traders prioritize Friday’s jobs data over directional bets.

Why tomorrow’s Jobs Report is pivotal for crypto is straightforward and mechanical. First, the print will refine expectations for the Fed’s reaction function into the September 16–17 meeting and beyond; the rate path filters directly into global liquidity conditions, term premia, and the dollar, all of which feed crypto risk appetite.

Second, after July’s disappointing government report and the ADP/claims/JOLTS trio this week, another soft employment reading would validate a slowdown narrative and keep additional 2025 cuts in play—whereas a surprise re-acceleration would push back against the easing path and likely firm yields and the dollar, a headwind for high-beta crypto.

At press time, BTC traded at $109,551.