USD/CAD. Analysis and Forecast

Ben Graham · September 9, 2025

On Tuesday during the Asian session, the USD/CAD pair attempted to attract buyers but failed amid mixed fundamental signals. Nevertheless, spot prices are comfortably holding above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).

Weak Canadian labor market data released on Friday strengthened market expectations for a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Bank of Canada at the September 17 meeting. Naturally, this pressures the Canadian dollar, serving as a key factor that could allow the pair to rise.

At the same time, a modest recovery in crude oil prices limited the downside potential of the commodity-linked Canadian dollar.

On the other hand, the U.S. dollar has also weakened, falling to a new low not seen since July 24, amid expectations of more aggressive monetary easing by the Federal Reserve. Moreover, after the disappointing U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report, traders began pricing in the possibility of a significant rate cut at the upcoming September 17 FOMC meeting. This continues to undermine the U.S. dollar, capping the upside potential of USD/CAD.

In addition, the overall positive market sentiment toward risk is another factor undermining the U.S. dollar's safe-haven status. Accordingly, traders betting on USD/CAD upside need to proceed with caution. For better trading opportunities, it makes sense to wait for Wednesday's Producer Price Index (PPI) release and Thursday's U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI).

From a technical perspective, daily chart oscillators remain positive. Prices are trading above the 9-day EMA as well as the 100-day SMA. If prices hold above the psychological 1.3800 level, the next obstacle will be at 1.3850. A drop below 1.3800 will bring immediate support from the 100-day SMA. Failing to hold that level would expose weakness toward the 1.3700 psychological mark.

The table below shows the percentage change of the U.S. dollar against major currencies over the past seven days.