Interest Rate Cut Bets Intact After -911k Jobs Revision, US Dollar Steady. WIll Recession Fears Grow?

[Ben Graham]

US President Trump will not be happy with this one: After firing Biden's BLS appointee for "rigged" statistics, it turns out that statistics really aren't all that great.

The high-tier data revision highlights a -911K revision since March 2025. This would put even more emphasis on the weakening trend of the US Labor Market.

Revisions to the Bureau of Labor Statistics data get released every trimester and offer a preliminary review of the data.

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The final benchmark revision will be released in February 2026 with the January 2026 employment situation news release.

You can access the report right here: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/prebmk.nr0.htm

US Labor Market Flashing Recessionary Signs?

The fact that the preliminary benchmark revision is negative is no real surprise. Looking back at the data since 2019 and the revisions have been negative every year except in 2022.

The latest data suggests employers added nearly 76,000 fewer jobs per month than previously reported from April 2024 through March 2025. While Tuesday’s numbers don’t include month-by-month revisions, the sheer breadth implies that payroll growth in some months, likely August and October 2024, was likely negative.

Looking at private payrolls, the BLS revised down annual job gains by 880,000, with the trade, transportation, and utilities sector logging the biggest mark downs.

Economists at Goldman Sachs, J.P Morgan, Nomura Securities, and Royal Bank of Canada expect the agency to mark down net job gains by as much as 900,000 on an annual basis, or by about 75,000 a month, on average.

That would shift the average monthly gain to about 74,000 jobs, compared with the average monthly gain of 149,000 currently reported—and could mean growth in some months was negative in the period measured. Bank of America’s team has forecasted a downward revision of up to a million fewer jobs in the 12 months to March.

In the words of Moody's Analytics top economist Mark Zandi, “If businesses start laying [people] off, then I think this will not just be a jobs recession, but will be an overall economic downturn.”

These words are starting to ring in the ears of some market participants no doubt. Given what we are seeing with Gold prices and the haven appeal going around, some are well positioned for what may be ahead for financial markets.

It may not be a fair reflection but part of the problem facing business over the last few months has been uncertainty. A lot of which has stemmed from erratic trade policies put forth by the Trump administration .

For all the chatter by the administration around tariffs it does not seem to be yielding any results. The budget deficit continues to widen while the fairytale that factory jobs will return to the US was always a pipedream. It is just too costly to manufacture for export in the United States and that is basic mathematics.

So where does this leave the US economy? Of course it is not all doom and gloom, but warning signs are flashing.

If concerns around a potential recession continue to rise, this could have a lasting impact on not just the US Dollar but global markets as well. Oil prices could feel the heat while safe havens could continue their impressive 2025 rally to unprecedented highs.

Immediate Market Reaction

The US Dollar Index first fell when the news came out before moving higher to trade up around 0.12% on the day.

The index had traded at 7 week lows earlier today before bouncing higher with ever evolving rate cut expectations driving price moves.

Bets on a 25 basis point cut, that was already priced in, were intact while ones on a jumbo 50 bps reduction jumped to about 10% before settling around 8%, as per CME's FedWatch tool

Source: CME FedWatch Tool

Technical Analysis - US Dollar Index (DXY)

From a technical standpoint, the DXY is attempting a recovery today as markets wait on CPI data due on Thrusday.

The DXY could continue to grind until then with immediate resistance resting at 97.70 before the recent highs at 98.37 and the 100-day MA at 98.65 come into focus.

The downside holds support at 96.90 before the YTD lows at 96.37 comes into focus.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Chart, September 9, 2025

Source: TradingView.com

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