Nasdaq outperforms while Dow falls and S&P 500 holds steady ahead of FOMC

[Ben Graham]

US indices post another fantastic week in ever-ecstastic trading.

Participants have been looking away from a now-priced-in slowing Labor market in the US that is still at historically great levels, as inflation came back to grab the most-watched seat.

The consecutive CPI and PPI releases have boosted bullish spirits, pushing all indices to new all-time highs in yesterday's session.

The Dow Jones saw the heaviest inflows, concluding the session up a staggering 1.38% compared to the 0.63% and 0.82% rises for the Nasdaq and S&P 500, respectively.

Nasdaq is taking back its throne in today's action, breaking new records yet again.

Some analysts mention that odds for a 50 bps cut at next week's meeting are still far from underrated with good reasons.

The -932K (vs -630K) BLS Labor data revisions released last week have added to the US labor's degrading picture as tariffs bite into companies' profits even more in recent months.

Add this to the political menaces from the Trump Administration and the dissenting FED speakers who are now gone (hi to Lisa Cook and Adriana Kugler), and with the not-so-hot CPI relative to expectations, the FOMC might be lagging on their policy.

Inflation is still uncomfortably high when looking at the core figures (+3.1% Y/Y), adding to uncertainty about this outcome—75 bps of cuts are still heavily priced in the three final meetings for 2025.

Explore intraday charts and technical levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500.

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A picture of today's Equity action

US Stock Market heatmap, September 12, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Another tech-led session to conclude the fantastic performance by Equities this week.

No surprise that the Nasdaq is leading in today's session: Look at Tesla breaking out, Palantir recovering with hunger and Microsoft.

Other sectors have been struggling a bit more when looking at the red dots to the right, particularly in Consumer Services and Health technology.

Next week is promised to be fun to watch and trade.

Dow Jones 4H Chart

Dow Jones 4H Chart, September 12, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Still constrained by the rising wedge upper trendline mentioned the past week, sellers have appeared to take profit in the index which exploded yesterday.

Translating to individual sectors explains why today is less interesting for Dow Jones bulls.

Anyhow, an elevated RSI is retracting to neutral, more healthy levels and may allow further action to develop looking forward.

Also, do not forget how huge was yesterday's green candle for the Dow. Profit taking here isn't too surprising.

Watch the lower trendline of the rising wedge for support and be careful of a break.

Levels for Dow Jones trading

Resistance Levels

• Current All-time high 45,765
• ATH Resistance Zone 45,700 (+/- 150 pts)
• 1.618 Fibonacci-Extension for potential ATH resistance 46,400 to 46,850

Support Levels

• Low of imminent consolidation 45,280
• Key Support/longer-run pivot 45,000
• Support 44,200 to 44,500
• Main Support (NFP Lows) 43,000 to 43,750

S&P 500 4H Chart – 6,600 broken!

S&P 500 4H Chart, September 12, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The Spoose is enjoying its pre-weekend trading after a slow start to the session.

Dragged by an ever-joyful tech sector, bulls are taking the S&P 500 to another round of record high and trades 1 point away from the 6,600 level as I write this.

The ongoing 4H candle trades at its highs, leaving not much space for bears to interract.

Still, trading might be slightly more cautious as the FOMC day looms.

S&P 500 technical levels

Resistance Levels

• Daily highs 6,601!
• 6,570 to 6,603 Potential ATH resistance (from Fibonacci extension, currently trading)
• Higher timeframe potential resistance around the 6,700 level (1.618 from April lows)

Support Levels

• 6,490 to 6,512 pivot
• 6,400 Main Support
• 6,300 psychological support
• 6,210 to 6,235 Main Support (August NFP Lows)

Nasdaq 4H Chart

Nasdaq 4H Chart, September 12, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The Nasdaq has been very tricky in the past weeks, showing initial hesitation and trading choppy before exploding higher leaving bears in fumes.

Today was not an exception.

After a relatively slower day compared to its peers, the tech-focused index is taking a train to a new price discovery phase.

Look at the tech-sector compared to others. It is scary to be short these days.

Nasdaq technical levels of interest

Resistance Levels

• Current All-time Highs 24,138
• 24,203 to 24,250 1.382 Fibonacci level from monthly lows
• Potential resistance at the 1.618 from monthly lows 24,400

Support Levels

• Previous ATH zone turning pivot (23,950 to 24,020)
• 23,500 support
• 23,000 Key Support
• Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 Support

Safe Trades!

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