Is the West uniting against the East?

[Ben Graham]

The European Union has heeded Trump's call for tariffs against China and India. Frankly, it's still hard to believe such measures will be taken, but anything is possible. Let me remind you that Donald Trump is prepared to impose additional duties of up to 100% against Beijing and New Delhi because they refuse to stop buying Russian oil and gas. According to the White House, countries purchasing energy from Russia are financing the Kremlin's war against Ukraine. To end the war, Moscow must be cut off from financial flows.

The Kremlin, however, has repeatedly stated that Western sanctions and restrictions will have no effect. Moscow and Beijing are already discussing barter deals to exclude dollars and other currencies from settlements and bypass the SWIFT international payment system. Personally, I tend to believe that even if the U.S. and EU introduce new tariffs, they will not bring any progress in resolving the Russia–Ukraine conflict.

In Washington and Brussels, however, officials believe they know what they are doing. For the EU, which itself continues to buy Russian oil (directly or indirectly), the main problem lies with Hungary and Slovakia, which lack access to alternative energy sources. These countries are therefore likely to block any tariffs against China and India. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has already said he does not consider sanctions an effective lever of pressure on Russia.

It is also worth noting that the U.S., as the initiator of such tariffs, does not want to impose them without EU participation. In other words, Washington wants joint action against China, India, and Russia—or even to "pull chestnuts out of the fire with Europe's hands." If things escalate, America is across the ocean, while Europe shares the same continent with the "big Eurasian trio." The question is whether the EU really needs this.

For now, these geopolitical developments have had no impact on the currency market—but tariffs have not yet been introduced. I think they won't be, but the world seems to be entering a new round of global confrontation between West and East. Modern politicians either don't want to negotiate—or don't know how.

Wave pattern for EUR/USD:

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, the instrument continues to build a bullish section of the trend. The wave structure still entirely depends on the news background linked to Trump's decisions, as well as the foreign and domestic policy of the new Administration. Trend targets may extend as far as the 25th figure. With the news background following its course, I continue to consider buying with initial targets around 1.1875, equivalent to the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, and higher.

Wave pattern for GBP/USD:

The wave structure for GBP/USD remains unchanged. We are dealing with a bullish, impulsive section of the trend. Under Trump, markets may face many more shocks and reversals that could significantly affect the wave structure. However, for now, the working scenario remains intact, and Trump's policy remains consistent. The targets of the bullish section of the trend are located around the 261.8% Fibonacci level. At this point, I expect further price increases within wave 3 of 5, with a target of 1.4017.

Key principles of my analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often change.
2. If you are not confident about market developments, it's better to stay out.
3. One can never have 100% certainty about market direction. Always remember protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

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