Euro hits four-year high on strong German investor confidence, US retail sales beat estimate

[Ben Graham]

The euro has posted sharp gains on Thursday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1867, up 0.90% on the day. The euro has not been at these levels since September 2021.

German investor confidence crushes estimate

German ZEW Economic Sentiment rose modestly in September to 37.3, up from 34.7 in August. This blew past the market estimate of 26.3 and the euro has responded with sharp gains. The survey of financial experts indicates cautious optimism, with the outlook for the export sector showing promise after a prolonged decline.

At the same time, the index monitoring the current economic situation worsened, declining to -76.4 from 68.6, below the market estimate of -75.0. It has been a bumpy road for Germany, which is the only G7 economy that has not posted growth in the past two years. Once the locomotive that drove the eurozone economy, Germany finds itself the laggard of the bloc.

US retail sales better than expected

US retail sales for August were stronger than expected at 0.6% m/m. This was unchanged from an upwardly revised 0.6% in July and easily beat the market estimate of 0.2%. Retail sales increased across most sub-categories, as consumers showed they were in a spending mood despite a weaker job market and higher prices due to President Trump's tariffs.

Annualized, retail sales jumped 5.0%, up from an upwardly revised 4.1% in August and above the forecast of 3.2%. At the same time, consumer sentiment has been softening, with consumers concerned about the impact of the tariffs.

All eyes are on the Federal Reserve, which is widely expected to lower interest rates on Wednesday for the first time since December 2024. The money markets have fully priced in a rate cut, with a quarter-point reduction practically a given. Investors will be looking for clues about the possiblity of additional rate cuts before the end of the year.

EUR/USD Technical

EUR/USD has pushed above resistance at 1.1786, 1.1804 and 1.1844. The next resistance line is at 1.1908

There is support at 1.1751 and 1.1728

EURUSD 1-Day Chart, September 16, 2025

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