Forecast for GBP/USD on September 17, 2025

[Ben Graham]

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Tuesday continued its upward move and consolidated above the resistance zone of 1.3611–1.3620. Thus, the upward movement may extend today toward the next Fibonacci level at 1.3708. A decline in the pound will be considered only if the pair closes below the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3587, with a target at 1.3482.

The wave structure remains bullish. The last completed downward wave did not break the previous low, while the new upward wave easily broke the last peak. The news background does not allow bears to go on the offensive. The market expects strong monetary policy easing from the FOMC, which adds strength to bulls. At present, there are no grounds to expect a sharp decline in GBP/USD.

On Tuesday, traders ignored all reports that did not fit their outlook. U.S. industrial production volumes rose by 0.1% in August (above expectations), and retail sales grew by 0.6% (also above forecasts). Nevertheless, bears did not attempt an attack. In the morning, UK reports on unemployment and wages were published, but the market paid no attention to them. This morning, the UK released inflation data, which is unlikely to deter bulls. Inflation stood at 3.8% y/y, as expected. Core inflation was 3.6%, also as expected. Thus, nearly all UK reports this week have shown no significant fluctuations. However, this is not a problem. Today and tomorrow, traders will have plenty to digest. First, the Fed will announce its decision, followed by the Bank of England. It seems likely that bears will once again be left empty-handed, though we should not get ahead of ourselves. Jerome Powell could again take a conservative stance and refrain from giving any forecasts on further monetary easing, which would undoubtedly disappoint bulls, who are already counting on three rate cuts by the end of the year.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair continues its rise after consolidating above the 1.3378–1.3435 zone. Growth may continue toward the next corrective Fibonacci level of 127.2% at 1.3795. The CCI indicator shows signs of a bearish divergence, which may coincide with a corrective pullback. At the moment, the hourly chart provides more clarity.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

Sentiment among the "Non-commercial" category of traders did not change over the last reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators decreased by 1,213, while the number of short positions fell by 748. The current spread between longs and shorts is about 75,000 versus 109,000. Still, the pound leans toward growth, and traders toward buying.

In my view, the pound still faces potential for a decline. The news background during the first six months of the year was disastrous for the U.S. dollar but is slowly beginning to stabilize. Trade tensions are easing, key deals are being signed, and the U.S. economy will likely recover in Q2 thanks to tariffs and various investments. At the same time, expectations of Fed monetary easing in the second half of the year are already creating strong pressure on the dollar, with the U.S. labor market weakening and unemployment rising. Therefore, I currently see no grounds for a "dollar trend."

News Calendar for the U.S. and UK:

• UK – Consumer Price Index (06:00 UTC).
• U.S. – Building Permits (12:30 UTC).
• U.S. – Housing Starts (12:30 UTC).
• U.S. – FOMC Interest Rate Decision (18:00 UTC).
• U.S. – FOMC Economic Projections (18:00 UTC).
• U.S. – Fed Press Conference (18:30 UTC).

September 17 brings six events in the economic calendar. The news background will influence market sentiment on Wednesday, with special attention on the evening FOMC meeting.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trader Recommendations:

Selling opportunities may appear today if the pair rebounds from 1.3708 on the hourly chart, targeting the 1.3611–1.3620 zone. Buying was possible on the close above 1.3611–1.3620 with a target at 1.3708. These trades can still be held open today with Stop Loss moved to breakeven.

Fibonacci grids are built from 1.3586–1.3139 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.

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