Markets Weekly Outlook – getting ready for September NFP week

[Ben Graham]

Week in review – UN Assembly, ever-stronger metals, Powell and a huge USD performance,

A week dominated by central bank communications and seasonal dynamics kept investors on edge, even as the UN General Assembly passed without major geopolitical surprises except for some memorable US President Trump quotes.

Instead, markets focused on Fed officials and their global counterparts weighing in on shifting economic conditions.

Powell’s Rhode Island appearance delivered another shift to Market focus, highlighting rising downside risks to employment and how hiring momentum has “dropped very sharply.”

Fed Governor Bowman, a known dove, pushed the point further, calling for a more proactive stance to avoid falling “behind the curve”.

Further north, Bank of Canada Governor Macklem stressed that trade is under attack, citing a sharp slowdown in exports and weaker investment trends tied to US policy uncertainty.

He also had a few words to say on the FED’s independence and shed some light on Jerome Powell’s solid performance amid all the menaces.

Markets responded in seasonal fashion, following the classic “sell Rosh Hashanah” adage pattern as volumes thinned and equities corrected from recent highs, leading to a three-day correction in Equities.

Happy New Year to those who celebrate, and peace to markets and communities alike.

Powell’s reminder that “equity prices are fairly highly valued” added pressure, with the S&P 500 and broader indices retracing into familiar September headwinds.

The US Dollar, however, stood out, rallying on strong technical catalysts and better-than-expected US data that pushed back against optimistic 2026 rate cut bets.

Resilient job numbers, as seen in the latest Jobless Claims report, and decent macro conditions for now helped the greenback regain ground, underscoring the relative strength of the US economy against global peers.

A tense vibe can also be seen in the latest headline from US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, who is convening all army generals next week.

This vibe actually might have been one of the reasons for such a huge performance in metals, with Gold again marking fresh record highs on Tuesday, Platinum reaching 12 year highs and Silver pushing to reach new all-time highs, breaching $46 just today.

Most Read: Silver reaches April 2011 levels: Is a new all-time high next?

Weekly performance from different asset classes

Weekly Asset Performance, September 26, 2025 – Source: TradingView

As mentioned in the introduction, metals and the US Dollar have both sustained a consistent, strong performance but the commodity that stood out the most was easily Oil.

Black gold silently rose close to 5% just this week and closing the week at its highs. It seems that Europe turning away from Russian oil as this theme progresses is starting to have an influence on the pricing itself.

The real outperformers of the week, to the downside unfortunately, have been cryptocurrencies which took a dent to their strong yearly performance.

They maintain at fairly high levels but their price action resembles more one of a small correction rather than a simple pullback: Ethereum now stands below the $4,000 mark, and Bitcoin is closing the week shy of $110,000

Let's also see if a further correction in cryptocurrencies could trigger further reactions to the current stubbornly ecstatic market sentiment.

Read More:

• Dow Jones rises, but major support is under threat
• Dollar strength rattles global Markets: what to watch for the USD

Let’s dive into next week’s action, with a week that should be pretty busy.

The Week Ahead – NFP week and RBA meeting

Asia Pacific Markets - A new RBNZ Governor and a well-anticipated RBA meeting

Not mentioned in the introduction but Markets are welcoming the new Royal Bank of New Zealand Governor Anna Breman.

The week in Asia-Pacific kicks off with Japanese retail trade data and China’s official PMIs on Monday but the week really starts the following day for APAC trading.

The main focus lands squarely on Tuesday, when the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) delivers its interest rate decision, statement, and rate outlook, followed by Governor Bullock’s press conference.

The market is largely priced for a pause with only 6% of a cut priced in and only 16 bps of cut premiums priced through the end of 2025.

Later in the day, Japan’s Tankan survey offers fresh insights into business sentiment, while New Zealand reports on building permits.

On Wednesday, Australia publishes its monthly trade balance, exports, and imports, alongside the RBA’s Financial Stability Review, keeping AUD traders busy for the week. As a matter of fact, the week doesn't end here for Australian data.

Thursday turns to high-frequency indicators with Australia’s S&P Global PMIs and Japan’s unemployment rate, while Bank of Japan Governor Ueda’s speech will be closely watched for hints on upcoming policy.

Indeed, more talks around a hawkish BoJ are starting to appear, with data corroborating a potential future hike at the October 30th rate decision.

Remember that Bank of Japan rate decisions are huge for markets, particularly regarding Basis trades.

The week rounds off on Friday with Japan’s ruling LDP presidential election — a political event that could indirectly shape the BoJ’s stance and the yen outlook under new party leadership.

US, Europe and UK Markets - US Non-Farm Payrolls, UK GDP, Swiss CPI and many speakers

The week starts with an army of central bank voices on Monday, as both the Fed (Williams, Waller, ..) and the ECB unleash a wave of speakers, setting the tone for rates and policy expectations.

Since the September meetings have passed, markets wnow await what CB speakers will have to say regarding upcoming decisions and what they are looking at.

On Tuesday, attention shifts to the UK with Q2 GDP (QoQ/YoY) and to the eurozone with German CPI and euro-wide HICP prints, crucial for inflation watchers. ECB President Lagarde also speaks at the Bank of Finland’s 4th International Monetary Policy Conference

Wednesday brings more eurozone inflation data, this time the core HICP, alongside the US ADP employment change and ISM Manufacturing PMI — a solid preview into Friday’s labour market release.

On Thursday, Switzerland releases its CPI report, potentially steering CHF volatility, particularly with the ongoing deflation and the SNB hinting that they would be ready to cut rates to negative territory if needed.

The week’s climax lands on Friday with the US Non-Farm Payrolls, wages data, and unemployment rate for the month of September— This report will be essential as per usual, as the mood seems to relax regarding the US employment: the recent decreases could be relating to a lower labor demand from tighter immigration rather than actual economic slowdown.

But always remember that NFP can bring some surprises.

Of course, don't forget the ISM Services PMI at 10:00 A.M. that day.

For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (High-tier data only)

Not on the picture but do not forget the Chinese NBS Manufacturing PMI data on Monday evening (21:30).

Safe Trades and enjoy your weekend!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier

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