North American mid-week Market update – US-Canada deal approaching

[Ben Graham]

Log in to our mid-week North American Markets overview, where we examine the current themes in North America and provide an overview of indices and currency performances.

As the Wednesday session draws to a close, NA markets are seeing meaningful shifts across the geopolitical and financial landscape.

The U.S. dollar staged a strong rebound on the markets front, confirming the thesis that the year’s low for the greenback has likely been reached.

The fresh FOMC Minutes release is triggering a brief pullback, but the dollar remains firmly above its August highs.

This strength came despite Gold touching the $4,000 level, a consequent rally typically dampening USD momentum.

Read More:

• Who said that the USD and Gold can't rally together?
• What to take from the October 2025 FOMC Minutes

Meanwhile, optimism grew north of the border as a trade and industrial cooperation deal between the U.S. and Canada is taking shape.

Through some meetings taking place yesterday and today, Canada's PM Mark Carney met with Donald Trump to discuss the key steel and auto sectors further, signaling progress on a deal. – These sectors are posing the most significant disagreements between the two neighbours.

The agreement, expected to ease inflationary pressures while supporting the slowing economies (particularly Canada), is being viewed as a double positive for both countries.

Canadian equities are reacting accordingly, with aluminum and auto-related stocks outperforming mid-week.

On the geopolitical side, reports from Axios suggest that a tentative deal has been concluded, as indicated by one of Prime Minister Netanyahu’s closest reporters. Markets will now turn their attention to the news from the Egypt meeting – This provides another fundamental boost to the US Dollar, as President Trump brokered the 20-point deal.

Overall, North American markets are closing the mid-week session on a constructive note, supported by a resilient U.S. dollar, constructive trade headlines, and improving geopolitical sentiment.

Let's dive right into a few charts to get an overview on North American Markets, from US and Canadian equity Markets performance, USD and CAD performance to USDCAD and DXY charts.

North-American Indices Performance

North American Top Indices performance since last Monday – October 8, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Despite some individual names rallying, the TSX (Canadian Equity Market) has failed to make new highs but still overperformed the S&P 500 and Dow Jones on the weekly.

European stocks are nonetheless dominating their North American peers, with Nasdaq still trying to play catch up as the price action in tech continues to explode today.

Dollar Index 8H Chart

Dollar Index 8H Chart, October 8, 2025 – Source: TradingView

As mentioned in the introduction, the US Dollar has strengthened considerably this week as Markets continue to disregard the Government shutdown.

From what it seems, the USD rally really is about the Middle East deal putting back American diplomacy on the front lines. Of course, weakness in other currencies is playing its part in the ongoing flows.

The current candles don't look like continuation ones; sellers don't look very hungry. A small retracement has the highest odds of happening, but focus on the daily close.

To access the detailed levels and a further analysis of the Greenback, I invite you to take a look at this piece released this morning.

US Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors

USD vs other Majors since last Monday, October 8, 2025 - Source: TradingView.

The overall change against its counterparts doesn't look too big for the USD, but I'd like to point that most of the rally has occurred throughout this week.

Only the AUD takes the crown since beginning October.

Canadian Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors

CAD vs other Majors, October 8, 2025 - Source: TradingView.

The CAD performance is still not the brightest but it has stopped bleeding against other majors.

The rest will be to see if a deal actually materializes and may allow the Loonie to rally back against European currencies particularly, against which it is at multi-decade lows.

Intraday Technical Levels for the USD/CAD

USDCAD 4H Chart, October 8, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Not much has moved since yesterday's USDCAD analysis.

Still held in a triangle formation, with both the USD and CAD strengthening in tandem, it leaves a relative strength outlook a bit blurry.

Watch headlines regarding a deal that would give a further advantage to the Canadian Dollar.

Levels to place on your USDCAD charts:

Resistance Levels

• Weekly highs 1.39866
• Session highs 1.39715
• Friday Sep 29 resistance around 1.3960
• 1.40 Major resistance
• April 3 lows around 1.4050

Support Levels

• mini-support line & MA 50 1.3940
• 1.3925 Aug 22 highs current pivot
• 1.3850 to 1.3860 support
• 1.38 Handle +/- 150 pips
• 1.3550 Main 2025 Support

US and Canada Economic Calendar for the Rest of the Week

US and Canadian Data for the rest of the week, MarketPulse Economic Calendar

In the absence of BLS data (Including Jobless Claims and Non-Farm Payrolls), Fed Speakers are appearing in masses and will fill up the North American calendar.

A government shutdown is not happening in Canada, hence Markets will await their Employment data (Friday morning 8:30 AM ET) which has been degrading quite a bit as of late.

If a deal pulls through, this could be a potential low for the Canadian Labor market. Let's see how all of the talks go.

Of course, do not forget the weekly University-of-Michigan Consumer sentiment and Inflation expectations Friday at 10:00 A.M.

Safe Trades!

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