-
Total de itens
7205 -
Registro em
-
Última visita
-
Dias Ganhos
2
Tipo de Conteúdo
Perfis
Fóruns
Market Outlook
Tudo que Redator postou
-
Weak jobs report sparks market sell-offThe stock market reacted to the US employment report, which triggered a sell-off in the S&P 500 index. Weak labor data increased the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts, but investors are concerned about declining corporate earnings. Analysts note that uncertainty in forecasts may heighten volatility in the coming weeks. Follow the link for more details. US indices close lower amid rate cut expectationsUS stock indices ended in negative territory, with the S&P 500 down 0.32%. Expectations of Fed rate cuts strengthened following the weak jobs report, supporting gains in Asian indices. Investors continue to closely monitor macroeconomic indicators that may determine the market's further direction. Follow the link for more details. Trump ready to replace Powell, dollar under pressureDonald Trump is set on replacing Fed Chair Jerome Powell, putting forward potential candidates willing to pursue aggressive rate cuts. Weak labor data, in turn, is weighing on the US dollar and supporting the stock market. A possible leadership change at the Fed adds uncertainty to the outlook for future monetary policy. Follow the link for more details. Let us remind you that InstaForex offers the best conditions for trading stocks, indices, and derivatives, helping traders earn effectively on market fluctuations. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
-
France's Budget Fever and FDA's New Deal: Where Are Investors' Money Flowing?
um tópico no fórum postou Redator Radar do Mercado
European markets open higher amid a turbulent political week European stock exchanges edged up on Monday, setting the tone for what promises to be a tense and eventful week. The spotlight is on France, where political instability looms once again: the country may soon be searching for its fifth prime minister in just three years. France under pressure: no-confidence vote and credit rating risks Prime Minister Francois Bayrou is expected to face a no-confidence vote later today, a move that could cost him his post. At the same time, the eurozone's second-largest economy is grappling with mounting public debt, while investors brace for the first in a series of sovereign credit rating reviews due this week. Indices show modest gains The pan-European STOXX 600 rose 0.21 percent, reaching 550.37 points by 08:22 GMT. France's CAC 40 advanced 0.22 percent. Banks rebound after recent losses Financial stocks led the upswing, with the European banking index climbing nearly 1 percent, recovering part of last week's decline. The rebound was fueled by expectations that the US Federal Reserve could cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the end of the month, following weaker-than-anticipated American labor market data. Energy and defense sectors strengthen European oil and gas firms added 0.8 percent, mirroring a 1.6 percent jump in global crude prices. The defense sector also benefited from heightened geopolitical concerns: Rheinmetall shares advanced 1.5 percent, while the broader defense index climbed nearly 1 percent. Pharma stocks under pressure European healthcare shares slipped by half a percent, with Novo Nordisk leading the decline, losing 1.3 percent. The downturn followed a statement from the US Food and Drug Administration, which announced tighter checks on imported ingredients for weight-loss drugs. The agency voiced concerns that many shipments could be counterfeit and potentially harmful. Insurance sector hit by Phoenix drop Shares of Phoenix Group tumbled nearly 6 percent after the UK insurer released its half-year results. The company also announced it would rebrand as Standard Life Plc in March 2026, adding further weight to the sell-off. Fed outlook boosts global equities Hopes of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve continued to lift sentiment. Futures on the S&P 500 rose 0.2 percent, bringing the index close to last week's record intraday high. European stocks advanced 0.2 percent, while Asian markets gained 0.7 percent. Political shift in Tokyo The week's first major political shake-up came from Japan, where Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba resigned. Markets reacted unevenly: the yen and long-term bonds weakened, while equities rallied. Traders interpreted the turmoil as a sign that the Bank of Japan is less likely to raise rates in the near term. Paris and Tokyo weigh on currency markets The combined political uncertainty in France and Japan has added pressure on the dollar. Despite disappointing US labor data last Friday — which reinforced expectations of a quarter-point Fed rate cut by month-end and even hinted at a slim chance of a half-point move — the greenback failed to strengthen. Currencies: euro edges higher At the start of the week, the euro inched up by just 0.1 percent, trading at 1.1731 against the dollar. The greenback gained modestly versus the yen, settling at 147.6. A weaker Swiss franc and antipodean currencies did little to boost the single currency further. Treasury yields hold steady After a sharp drop last Friday, US Treasury yields remained largely unchanged. The 10-year yield slipped to 4.08 percent, while the two-year note, which is more sensitive to Federal Reserve policy, stood at 3.50 percent. Inflation data in focus Markets are now awaiting Wednesday's release of the US Consumer Price Index, the final major indicator before the Fed's upcoming meeting. A stronger-than-expected reading could reduce the likelihood of an aggressive rate cut. ECB meeting ahead On Thursday, attention will shift to the European Central Bank. Analysts widely expect policymakers to keep borrowing costs unchanged for the second meeting in a row. Gold reaches new heights On the commodities front, gold continued its rally, setting a fresh all-time high at 3616 dollars per ounce. The metal has already surged 37 percent this year, extending the momentum after a 27 percent gain in 2024. Oil prices gain on OPEC+ decision Both Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 1.6 percent after OPEC+ members agreed over the weekend to slow the pace of production increases starting in October. The move reflects concerns over weakening global demand and has lent additional support to oil markets. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com -
Heads up: French prime minister Bayrou set to face confidence vote later
um tópico no fórum postou Redator Radar do Mercado
The confidence vote is set to take place later this afternoon with the results expected with the results likely to come in around 1500 GMT or after that. Incumbent French prime minister Bayrou is set to be ousted but are markets underestimating the political turmoil that could follow? Well, let's take a look. For the most part, the euro currency has shrugged off the risks associated with the situation in the region's second largest economy. So, that's one clear spot to look at in terms of potential negative reactions from markets. That at least is what Societe Generale is arguing. The firm outlines that the most probable outcomes are either Bayrou loses the vote and a caretaker prime minister is appointed or that Bayrou loses and the National Assembly is dissolved. And that will lead to an election with the likeliest result being another hung parliament. They outline that if the general election leads to a hung parliament and/or a National Rally win, that would cause "significant political and fiscal risks". In turn, that will be the most negative outcome for the euro. But in the case of any other outcome (even in the confidence vote), any positives will be limited and could be slightly negative at the balance. Societe Generale is noting that the market is being complacent right now and that the probability-weighted outcome for EUR/USD implies a target of 1.1570 This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. -
Tighter Premiums Put Crypto Treasuries On Risky Road, According To NYDIG
um tópico no fórum postou Redator Radar do Mercado
Wall Street’s appetite for companies holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets is cooling, and investors are starting to show it, according to the New York Digital Investment Group. Greg Cipolaro, the firm’s global head of research, said the disparity between share prices and net asset value (NAV) for major buyers is narrowing even as Bitcoin reached highs earlier this year. He pointed to several forces pushing those premiums down, from looming supply unlocks to increased share issuance. Premiums On The Slide Investor worry over future token unlocks is weighing on prices. Cipolaro listed other drivers: shifting corporate aims among digital-asset treasuries, fresh share sales, investor profit-taking, and a lack of clear differences between companies that simply hold Bitcoin. Companies often used as proxies for Bitcoin gains — names like Metaplanet and Strategy — have seen that gap compress. In plain terms, stocks that once traded at a healthy premium to the coins they own are now much closer to their NAVs. Buying Activity Slows Sharply Reports have disclosed that the combined holdings of publicly disclosed Bitcoin-buying companies peaked at 840,000 BTC this year. Strategy accounts for a third of that total, or about 637,000 BTC, while the rest is spread across 30 other entities. Data shows a clear slowdown in purchase size. Strategy’s average buy in August fell to 1,200 BTC from a 2025 peak of 14,000 BTC. Other companies bought 86% less than their March 2025 high of 2,400 BTC per transaction. Monthly growth has cooled too: Strategy’s monthly increase slid to 5% last month from 40% at the end of 2024, and other firms went from 160% in March to 7% in August. Share Prices And Fundraising Values Are Coming Under Pressure A number of treasury companies are trading at or below the prices of recent fundraises. That gap creates risk. If newly issued shares begin trading freely and owners decide to cash out, a wave of selling could follow. Cipolaro warned a rough patch may be ahead and advised companies to consider measures that support their share price. Stocks May Face A Bumpy Ride One straightforward move suggested was stock buybacks. According to Cipolaro, crypto focused companies should set aside some capital raised to buy back shares if needed. That approach can lift prices by shrinking the number of outstanding shares. Meanwhile, Bitcoin itself has not been immune to swings. Based on CoinMarketCap quotes, BTC was trading around $111,550, down about 7% from a mid-August peak above $124,000. The price move tightens the margin for error for treasury firms: their fortunes are linked to the coin, but their stock prices can move independently and sometimes more harshly. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView -
Japanese and French Politics Take Limelight for the Moment
um tópico no fórum postou Redator Radar do Mercado
Overview: The dollar is mostly consolidating with a softer bias after the disappointing employment report before the weekend. The derivatives market is pricing in about a 10% chance of a 50 bp Fed cut next week, which still seems exaggerated given the likely uptick in headline CPI this week. The Japanese yen is the only G10 currency that is weaker on heels of the resignation of Prime Minister Ishida who saw the surveys that showed a majority of his party wanted a leadership contest this year as a vote of no-confidence. The policy uncertainty weighed on the long-end of the Japanese interest rate, though the 10-year yield slipped and equities rose. Most emerging market currencies are also firmer against the dollar, including the Chinese yuan, where the PBOC set a new low fix for the dollar since last November. The focus is on the French confidence vote today, but French 10-year premium over Germany is a little narrower today. European benchmark yields are little changed, but the UK 10-year Gilt yield is up one basis point, the most in Europe. The 10-year Treasury yield fell over eight basis points at the end of last week, and its three-day drop was near 18 bp. It is trading a basis point higher today to almost 4.09%. Stocks are rallying today. All the large bourses in the Asia Pacific region rose but Australia. Europe's Stoxx 600 is recouping its pre-weekend loss and is up around 0.25%. US index futures are also trading with a firmer bias. Gold is extending its run to record highs and poked above $3617 today. OPEC+ agreed to raise production by 137k barrels a day next month, but actual output is thought to likely be lower as some members may forgo their increase to make up for overproduction previously or may lack spare capacity. Its three-day swoon of more than $3.5 a barrel is being snapped today as the black gold pushes above $63 after settling below $62 before the weekend. USD: It took longer than we had imagined, but ahead of the weekend, the Dollar Index settled below the low seen in response to Federal Reserve Chair Powell's speech at Jackson Hole on August 22. It frayed the lower Bollinger Band a little above 97.50. It is trading in about a 50-point range so far today below 97.95. The poor US jobs data fanned speculation of a 50 bp cut at the FOMC that concludes on September 17. More poor news is expected tomorrow when the BLS announces benchmark revision to the establishment survey. Last year, the benchmark revision subtracted 818k jobs. Still, we are concerned that with US rates already at their lowest level in several months, market speculation may be getting ahead of itself, and that the fourth consecutive increase in the headline CPI will dampen speculation of a large rate cut next week. EURO: The euro tested the $1.1760 area twice ahead of the weekend. The risk seems to be some backing and filling and the risk may extend toward $1.1680. The euro overcame the disappointed German factory orders (-2.9%) and was bid even before the US jobs data disappointed. The euro recorded its low today, slightly ahead of $1.1690 in early turnover and was already back above $1.1720 when Germany reported stronger than expected industrial output (+1.3%), its first increase since March. At the same time, it reported an unexpected decline in July exports (-0.6%). The market continues to watch is overshadowed by French political machinations. The government does not appear to have the support to win the confidence vote. President Macron will likely choose another prime minister, but he may lose conservative Republican ministers if he appoints a Socialist. Fitch reviews France's AA- credit rating with a negative outlook at the end of the week. Without fiscal progress, the risks are of a downgrade. CNY: The dollar was sold slightly through CNH7.1220 after the US jobs report, holding slightly above the week's low set last Monday closer to CNH7.1210. It is trading quietly today between about CNH7.1245 and CNH7.1335. If the greenback's downtrend accelerates it will be difficult for officials to try to steady the yuan, arguably signaled by the setting the dollar's fix higher in four of last week's five sessions. The PBOC set the dollar's reference rate at a marginal new low for the year today CNY7.1029 (CNY7.1064 before the weekend, and CNY7.1072 last Monday). The PBOC reported reserves rose by nearly $30 bln to $3.322 trillion after falling by $25.2 bln in July. Valuation appears to be the key driver. However, it did continue to increase its gold holdings. Separately, it reported that its August trade surplus rose to $102.3 bln (from $98.2 bln in July). Exports slowed to 4.4% year-over-year (7.2% in July), the weakest in six months. Exports to the US are down a third over the past year, while exports to Southeast Asia were up by almost a quarter, as were exports to Africa. Shipments to Europe were up 10%. Imports slow to 1.3% year-over-year (4.1% in July). JPY: News that Prime Minister Ishiba will resign weighed on the yen initially early today, and lifted the dollar to almost JPY148.60, slightly above the pre-weekend/pre-US jobs data high) amid the uncertainty. The scramble to replace Ishiba began in earnest and many observers are replaying last year's leadership contest. Long-term Japanese yields rose amid the uncertainty. Still, the yen recovered, and the dollar reached JPY147.50 by early European turnover. The greenback peaked in the middle of last week near JPY149.15, its highest level in over a month, and after consolidating Thursday, it fell to nearly JPY146.80 ahead of the weekend. Note that Japan revised up Q2 GDP from 1.0% at an annualized rate to 2.2%, helped by stronger private consumption and less of a drag from inventories, which more than offset the slower business spending. The July current account balance widened as the strong seasonal pattern suggested (JPY2.68 trillion vs. JPY1.35 trillion), though notably the trade balance swung into deficit (-JPY189 bln vs. JPY470 bln). GBP: Sterling reached nearly a three-week high ahead of the weekend near $1.3555 to make a marginal new high for the week. It is like the old adage about the ugly contest in some ways with fiscal pressure mounting and the government seems to be a bit of disarray after the deputy prime minister resigned (and her party role, as well). A cabinet reshuffle is expected in the coming days. This, as the French government is on the precipice, and the dollar was pushed lower as the slowdown in the labor market quickened. The $1.3600-level capped sterling in the third week of July and again in the middle of August. Friday's high may hold. It is trading in about a fifth of the cent around $1.3500 so far today. CAD: Canada's disappointing jobs report did it no favors, but the weaker US dollar environment ahead of the weekend, would have weighed on the Canadian dollar in any event. It was the only G10 currency not to have gained on the US dollar. Although the greenback traded on both sides of the previous day's range it settled within Thursday's range. Still the technical tone looks constructive. It is trading between about CAD1.3810 and CAD1.3845 today. A convincing move above CAD1.3860 could spur a move toward CAD1.3900-25 initially. There was little response to Prime Minister Carney's C$5 bln initiative to counter the negative impact of US tariffs. There have been two quick blows to Canada--the sharper than expected contraction in Q2 GDP (-1.6% annualized) and the weaker labor market report (a sharper than expected rise in unemployment to 7.1% and a loss of full-tine positions in August for the second consecutive month). This has boosted speculation for a rate cut later this month to almost 80%. AUD: The Australian dollar reached a six-week high ahead of the weekend. It reached nearly $0.6590 and has returned to near there today. The Aussie has traded above $0.6600 only twice this year. It held the five-day moving average (~$0.6545). It and the New Zealand dollar join the Norwegian krone to lead the G10 currencies today. MXN: The US dollar traded to a two-week low before the weekend near MXN18.58. But unlike what we saw previously, good dollar buying emerged on the pullback and lifted the greenback above MXN18.73. The dollar is trading in the upper end of the pre-weekend range today (~MXN18.6825-MXN18.7380). Still, the peso does not appear to be going anywhere quickly. It has not traded below MXN18.55 or above MXN18.87 for more than three weeks. Disclaimer -
CryptoQuant analyst ‘caueconomy’ found that Bitcoin whales have dumped roughly $12.7B worth of $BTC over the past month. Shockingly, this marks the largest whale sell-offs since July 2022. These $BTC liquidations are anticipated to keep the #1 crypto’s price under pressure for longer – especially if they’re ongoing. Don’t want to sit in the dip while waiting for the market to perk back up? Then why not check out the best crypto presales? Bitcoin Whale Reserves Down 10K+ $BTC in One Month In a blog post on Friday, ‘caueconomy’ highlighted that holders are offloading $BTC more aggressively. So much so that the #1 crypto has reached its highest distribution levels this year. The analyst found that whale reserves have dropped by over 10K $BTC in the past 30 days, ‘signaling intense risk aversion among large investors.’ They believe that this selling pressure is what’s been pushing $BTC’s price below $108K, a level it had sunk below last week. At the time of writing, $BTC is valued at $111K. If you don’t want to wait for it to rebound yet want to boost your portfolio, now signals a great time to check out top presales. Since these tokens are still in their fundraising stages and not yet trading on the open market, whale sell-offs don’t affect their prices. In turn, they’re safer investment opportunities to check out in today’s volatile market. Even better, some presale coins are built with utility to help you thrive amid unfavorable market conditions, including Snorter Token ($SNORT), BlockchainFX ($BFX), and Best Wallet Token ($BEST). 1. Snorter Token ($SNORT) – Five-Figure Whale Investments Signal Confidence in Its Upcoming Trading Bot Snorter Token ($SNORT) is quickly attracting notable attention. It has already scooped up $3.7M+ on presale, propelled by three major whales investing $40K, $32K, and $21K. Such foremost transactions highlight that big investors have faith in Snorter Bot, the crypto project’s upcoming Telegram trading bot. Once launched this quarter, Snorter Bot will enable you to swap and automatically snipe new tokens quickly and safely. With an aardvark mascot, its ultimate ambition is to help you sniff out the next crypto to explode. If you’re not a confident trader, Snorter Bot’s copy trading feature has your back. It’ll enable you to mirror top traders’ moves for greater profit potential effortlessly. Better yet, it brings trust to the presale market that, unfortunately, isn’t scam-proof. Built with MEV protection, plus honeypot and rug pull alerts, the bot ensures you stay safe while chasing top opportunities for gains. It’ll first launch on Solana to take advantage of its low fees (just 0.85%) and fast transaction speeds (currently averaging 821.8 transactions per second). By doing so, it claims that it’ll outpace rival bots like Maestro, Trojan, Banana Gun, Bonk Bot, and Sol Trading Bot. Once it has a foothold in the Solana arena, the bot will expand across multiple chains, including Ethereum, BNB Chain, and other EVM networks. This way, you can trade the hottest alpha across chains – not just the best Solana meme coins. After buying $SNORT on presale, you can also anticipate leaderboard perks, DAO voting rights, and staking rewards at a 123% APY. One $SNORT currently costs as little as $0.1037. Following early bot adoption and exchange listings, it’s projected to reach $1.02. So, now presents an opportune moment to join the presale for potential returns of over 883%. 2. BlockchainFX ($BFX) – Powers Global Exchange That Bridges DeFi & TradFi $BFX is the linchpin of BlockchainFX, a cutting-edge global exchange that bridges DeFi and TradFi. Owing to this, it has nearly raised on eye-boggling $7M on presale. From a highly user-friendly app, you can gain access to not just crypto but also stocks, forex, ETFs, commodities, and bonds. Essentially, it gives you easy access to the world’s top markets, all under one roof. Although $BFX is still on presale, BlockchainFX already grants access to over 500 assets, including $BTC, $ETH, gold, and Tesla. Purchasing $BFX gives you early access to the platform, reduced trading fees, and daily staking rewards (in $USDT and $BFX). It also gives you exclusive perks like access to the limited-edition BFX Visa Card, which can be topped up with 20+ cryptos to spend globally online or in-store. This way, you can easily spend your crypto without the hassle of off-ramps. To reap these perks, you can purchase $BFX on presale for just $0.022. With a launch price set at $0.05, now’s a great time to secure early entry at its lowest current price. 3. Best Wallet Token ($BEST) – Raises $15.6M+ Over Fueling Crypto Wallet Perks Best Wallet Token ($BEST) has already attracted over $15.6M on presale as it’s the native token of Best Wallet, a mobile-friendly crypto wallet. After downloading the mobile app, you can manage, buy, sell, swap, and stake over 1K digital assets across major chains, including Ethereum, Polygon, and BNB Chain. It’ll soon support over 60 networks, so you can anticipate unlocking even greater crypto opportunities in the near future. As a non-custodial wallet, you can rest easy knowing that you have full ownership of your private keys. Considering that private key compromises accounted for the largest share of stolen crypto last year, at 43.8%, non-custodial wallets like Best Wallet are safe choices. Additionally safeguarding your digital assets, the wallet includes 2FA, biometric protection, local encryption, and personal cloud backups. Beyond this, the wallet is full of intuitive tools for discovering top investment opportunities at reasonable prices. This includes a token launchpad and a swap function that scans 330+ DEXs and 30 bridges for the best rates. It also has an ambitious roadmap that includes a crypto debit card (Best Card), a built-in NFT gallery, and a rewards hub for loyal users. And that’s to name a few. When buying $BEST, you’ll also be granted with lower gas fees, governance rights, and staking rewards (currently at an 85% APY). You can buy $BEST on presale for just $0.025605. But don’t wait around: Its price will increase later today and is forecasted to hit $0.035215 after being listed on Uniswap, one of the best decentralized exchanges. Verdict – The Best Crypto Presales Are Safe Investment Opportunities Bitcoin Whales offloading 100K+ $BTC shows that not even the world’s largest crypto is protected from sudden supply shocks. If you don’t want to wait for the volatility to clear up, your current best bet might be investing in the best crypto presales, like $SNORT, $BFX, and $BEST. Because they’re not yet listed on the market, they’re protected from whale-driven price swings. Plus, their utility helps you explore the next crypto that’s primed to thrive safely and hassle-free. This isn’t investment advice. Always do your own research and never invest more than you’d be sad to lose. Authored by Aaron Walkers, NewsBTC – https://www.newsbtc.com/news/best-crypto-presales-amid-big-bitcoin-sell-off/
-
The USD/CHF pair is trying to rebound from the 0.7950 level but so far without success. The U.S. dollar has been attempting to find support from buyers since the start of the new week, partly offsetting losses after the disappointing U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report, which came in weaker than expected and pushed the currency to its lowest level in more than a month. In addition, the generally optimistic risk sentiment in markets typically reduces demand for the Swiss franc as a safe-haven currency, creating favorable conditions for USD/CHF growth. However, the dollar's strengthening potential is limited by expectations of more decisive monetary easing by the Federal Reserve. Market participants are already pricing in a likely Fed rate cut in September and three cuts by year-end. This will cap significant dollar appreciation and restrain USD/CHF upside. From a technical standpoint, Friday's close below the key 0.8000 level for the first time since July 25 suggests that the most probable direction for spot prices is lower, especially since oscillators on the daily chart remain negative. As such, any recovery attempts may be viewed as selling opportunities, which will likely fade quickly in the absence of U.S. economic data capable of shifting market sentiment. Attention now turns to upcoming U.S. inflation data — the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Wednesday and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Thursday. These key releases will define the next trajectory of the U.S. dollar and provide a significant impulse for USD/CHF in the second half of the week. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
-
GBPUSD erased all the losses following the soft NFP report. What's next?
um tópico no fórum postou Redator Radar do Mercado
Fundamental Overview The USD sold off across the board on Friday following another soft NFP report. The dovish bets on the Fed increased as a result and the market is now expecting three rate cuts by year-end (70 bps). Moreover, we have also an 8% probability of a 50 bps cut in September but that will likely happen only if we get a soft CPI report on Thursday. In that case, the greenback will likely weaken further into the FOMC meeting. Overall, if one zooms out, the US dollar continues to range although the dovish bets on the Fed keep weighing on the currency. Part of that could be the fact that the bearish positioning on the dollar could be overstretched and we might be at the peak of the dovish pricing. In fact, if the Fed cuts trigger stronger economic activity in the next months, the rate cuts in 2026 could be priced out and support the dollar. Nevertheless, the trend is still skewed to the downside, and we might need strong data to reverse it. On the GBP side, nothing has changed fundamentally. The BoE delivered a hawkish cut at the last meeting and since then the data has been coming on the hotter side. In fact, the latest UK CPI surprised once again to the upside and the latest Flash PMIs, although mixed, showed strength and persistent inflationary pressures. Last week, we got a selloff in the pound across the board as the UK 30yr yield jumped to a new cycle high. That was eventually erased in the following days and especially after the soft NFP report. GBPUSD Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe On the daily chart, we can see that GBPUSD sold off all the way back to the key 1.3368 support after the UK 30yr yields jumped to a new cycle high but eventually bounced off of the support. The price is now back near the 1.3590 resistance. If the price gets there, the sellers will likely step in with a defined risk above the resistance to position for a drop back into the 1.3368 support. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into the 1.3790 level next. GBPUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have an upward trendline defining the bullish momentum. The buyers will likely continue to lean on the trendline with a defined risk below it to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to position for a drop into the 1.3368 support next. GBPUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe On the 1 hour chart, there’s not much else we can add here as the buyers will look for a bounce around the trendline, while the sellers will look for a break. The red lines define the average daily range for today. Upcoming Catalysts On Wednesday we get the US PPI report. On Thursday, we get the US CPI report and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the UK GDP and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com. -
Canada and US post weak job numbers, Canadian dollar steady
um tópico no fórum postou Redator Radar do Mercado
The Canadian dollar is showing little movement at the start of the week. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3820, down 0.06% on the day. Canada's employment sinks Canada's labor market is deteriorating quickly. In August, employment slipped by 65.5 thousand, the sharpest decline since January 2022. This was well off the market estimate of a 7.5 thousand gain and following the July reading of -40.8 thousand. That's the loss of over 100 thousand jobs in just two months. The massive loss of jobs has been driven by the US-Canada trade war, as many Canadian products have been slapped with 35% tariffs. There was more bad news, as the unemployment rate jumped to 7.1% from 6.9% in July, higher than the market estimate of 7.0%. This marked the highest unemployment rate since August 2021. The Bank of Canada will be concerned with the weak job numbers, which support the case for a rate cut. However, with core CPI around 3%, well above the 2% target, the Bank of Canada is hesitant to lower rates. The next inflation report comes out a day before the September 17 rate meeting, and could determine whether the BoC holds or cuts rates. US nonfarm payrolls fall to 22 thousand US nonfarm payrolls disappointed with a marginal gain of 22 thousand, well below the upwardly revised gain of 79 thousand in July and the market estimate of 75 thousand. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.3% from 4.2%, the highest level since December 2021. The money markets responded to the weak nonfarm payrolls report by fully pricing in a rate cut at next week's meeting, with a 90% probability of a quarter-point cut and a 10% chance of a half-point cut, according to CME's FedWatch. Prior to the jobs release, there was a 0% chance of a half-point cut. USD/CAD Technical USD/CAD has pushed below support at 1.3830 and is testing support at 1.3821 1.3843 and 1.3852 are the next resistance lines USDCAD 4-Hour Chart, September 8, 2025 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc. -
GBP/USD Brief analysis:Since the beginning of this year, the British pound has been steadily rising against the U.S. dollar. A corrective phase of the wave began at the end of June and is still unfinished. The structure shows the final part (C) is not complete. The calculated resistance passes along the lower boundary of the potential daily reversal zone. Weekly forecast:In the first days, the pair will likely decline and trade sideways along the support zone. Then, a reversal and renewed upward movement should follow. A brief breakout below the support boundary is possible before the turn. The resistance zone marks the probable upper boundary of the weekly range. Potential reversal zones Resistance: 1.3700/1.3750Support: 1.3430/1.3380Recommendations Sales: risky due to limited downward potential.Purchases: relevant after confirmed reversal signals near support.AUD/USD Brief analysis:The Australian dollar's uptrend over the past two months brought prices into a large potential reversal zone on the higher timeframe. The current bearish wave began on August 29 and remains incomplete. Weekly forecast:In the next few days, price is expected to move sideways, possibly dipping to the upper boundary of support. Afterward, renewed bullish movement is likely. The calculated resistance lies at the lower edge of a major reversal zone, where the entire wave may end. Potential reversal zones Resistance: 0.6620/0.6670Support: 0.6530/0.6480Recommendations Sales: limited potential; safer to reduce volume size.Purchases: possible after reversal signals appear near support.USD/CHF Brief analysis:Since April, the Swiss franc pair has been in an uptrend, forming as a contracting flat. The pair is still in correction, nearing the upper boundary of a strong potential reversal zone, which acts as support. Weekly forecast:Early in the week, sideways trading near support is likely. Toward the weekend, the chance of a reversal and renewed bullish momentum increases. The rate could reach resistance levels during this week. Potential reversal zones Resistance: 0.8170/0.8220Support: 0.7930/0.7880Recommendations Sales: not advisable this week.Purchases: valid after confirmed reversal signals from your systems.EUR/JPY Brief analysis:For the past month, EUR/JPY has been trending upward. Within the unfinished final wave, a counter pullback is forming as a sideways flat. The structure is not yet complete. Weekly forecast:Sideways movement with a downward bias is expected in the coming days. In the second half of the week, reversal signals near support may trigger renewed upward movement. A volatility spike is possible. Potential reversal zones Resistance: 175.00/175.50Support: 171.00/170.50Recommendations Sales: possible in small volumes intraday.Purchases: suitable after confirmed reversal signals near support.AUD/JPYBrief analysis:Since April, AUD/JPY has been trending upward. Since mid-July, the wave has been forming its middle part (B), mostly sideways as a contracting flat. Weekly forecast:The pair is expected to continue sideways this week, with a downward bias early on. From support, a reversal upward toward the top of the range may occur by the weekend. Potential reversal zones Resistance: 100.00/100.50Support: 95.00/94.50Recommendations Purchases: valid after signals of trend reversal.Sales: possible intraday in small volumes.USD Index Brief analysis:This year, the U.S. dollar index has been trending downward. Prices have reached the top of the potential reversal zone. Recent months have seen horizontal correction near this area. The unfinished segment began on August 1, and for three weeks the pair has formed a flat correction. Weekly forecast:In the first half of the week, sideways movement near resistance is likely, with pressure on the upper boundary. Increased volatility and renewed decline may follow toward the weekend, possibly triggered by economic data releases. Potential reversal zones Resistance: 97.90/98.10Support: 96.90/96.70RecommendationsDollar purchases in major pairs may be short-lived. After confirmed reversal signals near resistance, trades should account for the dollar's further weakening. Ethereum (#ETH) Brief analysis:Since August 22, Ethereum has been correcting the previous upward move. The wave has reversal potential and may mark the start of a new bearish phase. For three weeks, price has been consolidating sideways, forming the middle part (B), still unfinished. Weekly forecast:Sideways trading will likely continue in the coming days. Early in the week, the pair may rise toward resistance. By the weekend, volatility should increase, bringing a reversal and downward movement. Potential reversal zones Resistance: 4480.0/4580.0Support: 4060.0/3960.0Recommendations Purchases: possible intraday in small volumes.Sales: not recommended until reversal signals near resistance appear.Notes: In simplified wave analysis (SWA), all waves consist of 3 parts (A-B-C). On each timeframe, the focus is on the last unfinished wave. Expected movements are shown with dashed lines. Attention: The wave algorithm does not account for the time duration of price movements! The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
-
EUR/USD Brief analysis:The 4-hour chart of the common European currency major shows that since February this year, the trend has been driven by an upward wave. The unfinished segment of the main trend started on July 31. Over the past two weeks, a counter correction has formed, in the shape of a contracting flat. The price is moving along the lower boundary of a strong potential reversal zone. Weekly forecast:In the coming days, the euro is likely to maintain a sideways bias with an overall upward vector. A stop, reversal, and subsequent decline should be expected near the resistance zone. The support level marks the lower boundary of the expected weekly range. Potential reversal zones Resistance: 1.1760/1.1810Support: 1.1600/1.1550Recommendations Sales: after confirmed reversal signals appear near resistance.Purchases: may be used in small lots within intraday trading.USD/JPY Brief analysis:The downward section of the Japanese yen major from August 1 completes the prolonged bullish wave since April. Once confirmed, it will start a new phase of the earlier dominant bearish trend. The price is moving along the lower boundary of a strong potential reversal zone. Before further decline, the pair needs to complete the correction of the past month. Weekly forecast:Sideways movement is expected in the coming days, with price moving along resistance levels. A breakout above resistance is unlikely. The second half of the week is expected to be more volatile. From the resistance zone, a decline toward support levels is expected. Potential reversal zones Resistance: 148.10/148.60Support: 145.70/145.20Recommendations Purchases: risky, with limited potential.Sales: could be profitable after reversal signals near resistance.GBP/JPY Brief analysis:On a larger scale, the GBP/JPY pair has been in an uptrend for the past six months. From the lower boundary of strong resistance, after a corrective decline since August 4, an upward wave with reversal potential is developing. Its middle part (B) is close to completion. No early reversal signals are visible yet. Weekly forecast:Early in the week, the pair is likely to maintain a sideways trajectory along the resistance zone. Toward the weekend, the probability of higher volatility and a reversal to the downside increases. A brief breakout of the upper boundary cannot be ruled out. The timing of the reversal may coincide with key economic data releases. Potential reversal zones Resistance: 200.00/200.50Support: 197.90/197.40Recommendations Purchases: carry high risk and may lead to losses.Sales: can be considered after reversal signals near support.USD/CAD Brief analysis:For the past six months, the Canadian dollar has been moving downward against the U.S. dollar. Over the last three months, the price has been forming a flat correction. The wave structure lacks a final segment. Weekly forecast:Sideways movement is expected at the start of the week, possibly with a decline toward the support zone. A reversal and subsequent rise toward resistance may follow. Volatility is likely to increase closer to the weekend. Potential reversal zones Resistance: 1.3920/1.3970Support: 1.3800/1.3750Recommendations Sales: limited potential, suitable for intraday trades in small volumes.Purchases: conditions will appear only after confirmed reversal signals near support.NZD/USD Brief analysis:Since early July, the "kiwi" has been moving downward. On higher timeframes, this section forms a correction, not yet complete. The last unfinished upward segment started on July 29. The pair is currently locked in a narrow corridor between opposing zones. Weekly forecast:In the first days, the bullish bias may continue, with growth toward resistance. A reversal can be expected in the second half of the week. Renewed bullish movement may coincide with important economic releases. The support zone marks the lower boundary of the expected weekly range. Potential reversal zones Resistance: 0.5930/0.5980Support: 0.5800/0.5750Recommendations Purchases: no conditions at present.Sales: recommended after confirmed reversal signals near resistance.Gold Brief analysis:Gold has maintained a weak upward bias for the past six months, mainly trading sideways, forming a correction to the prior uptrend. Currently, the structure resembles a contracting flat, still lacking a final segment. In recent weeks, the price broke through resistance, gaining room to move higher. Weekly forecast:Early in the week, gold is likely to trade more sideways, with possible declines toward support. Conditions for a reversal and renewed growth may form afterward. The resistance zone marks the upper boundary of the expected weekly range. Potential reversal zones Resistance: 3650.0/3670.0Support: 3550.0/3530.0Recommendations Sales: high risk, safer if using small volumes.Purchases: relevant after confirmed reversal signals near support.Bitcoin (#BTC) Brief analysis:Since early August, Bitcoin's short-term trend has been guided by an upward wave. The last two weeks have seen an unfinished downward section of this wave. The price is nearing the upper boundary of the potential daily reversal zone. Weekly forecast: A continuation of the downward vector is most likely in the coming days, up to support zone levels. A reversal is highly probable afterward. Growth can be expected at the end of this week or the beginning of the next. Potential reversal zones Resistance: 117000.0/118000.0Support: 108000.0/109000.0Recommendations Sales: possible in small volumes during separate sessions, with potential limited to the support zone.Purchases: become relevant after reversal signals near support.Notes: In simplified wave analysis (SWA), all waves consist of three parts (A-B-C). On each timeframe, the analysis focuses on the last unfinished wave. Expected movements are shown with dashed lines. Attention: The wave algorithm does not account for the time duration of price movements! The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
-
Nikkei 225 Technical: Bullish trend remains intact despite Japan’s PM resignation
um tópico no fórum postou Redator Radar do Mercado
This is a follow-up analysis and update of our prior report, “Nikkei 225 Technical: A potential bullish reversal looms after a 4% decline as market breadth improves with earnings upgrade”, published on 22 August 2025. The price actions of the Japan 225 CFD Index (a proxy of the Nikkei 225 futures) have staged the expected bullish reversal after the test on the 41,760 key short-term pivotal support on 2 September 2025 (printed an intraday low of 41,688) and rallied by 3.6% to hit 43,203 on last Friday. 5 September. In today’s Asia session, it gapped up and added 1.7% to print a current intraday high of 43,850, just a whisker away from the recent all-time high of 43,942 printed on 18 August, on the backdrop of the resignation of Japan’s Prime Minister Ishiba on Sunday. Japan’s PM contenders are likely to advocate for fiscal stimulus measures The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) members are likely to vote for their leader in early October, with two leading contenders being Sanae Takaichi, a former internal affairs minister, and Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, the son of a former prime minister. Both contenders tend to have a more liberal stance towards fiscal policy and support more fiscal stimulus measures. Let’s now take a closer look at the latest key technical elements to decipher its next short-term (1 to 3 days) directional bias and key levels to watch on the Japan 225 CFD Index. Fig. 1: Japan 225 CFD Index minor trend as of 8 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView) Fig. 2: JGB yield curves (30-YR/2-YR & 10-YR/2-YR) major trends as of 8 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart) Preferred trend bias (1-3 days) Maintain the bullish bias on the Japan 225 CFD Index with a tightened short-term pivotal support now at 43,060/42,850 for the next intermediate resistances to come in at 44,050/44,110 and 44,840/44,970 (Fibonacci extension cluster and towards the upper boundary of a minor ascending channel from 1 August 2025 low) (see Fig. 1). Key elements Price actions of the Japan 225 have traded back above the 20-day moving average, which reinforces the ongoing short-term/minor bullish impulsive up move sequence.The hourly RSI momentum indicator has not flashed at a bearish divergence condition as it hit its overbought zone (above 70 level) in today’s Asia session.The major bullish breakout (steepening conditions) of the JGB yield curves since June 2022 has a direct correlation with the movements of the Nikkei 225, and the major uptrend phases of the JGB yield curves' steepening remain intact so far, in turn, may trigger a further positive feedback loop into the Nikkei 225 (see Fig. 2).Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days) Failure to hold at the 43,060/42,850 key short-term support for the Japan 225 CFD Index negates the bullish tone for a minor corrective decline to expose the next intermediate support at 42,260. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc. -
1926-S Buffalo Nickel: Complete Guide to Key Dates and Rarity Factors
um tópico no fórum postou Redator Radar do Mercado
To most people, nickels represent pocket change worth five cents. But in April 2008, a single 1926-S Buffalo nickel sold for $322,000 at auction. This was no coincidence, but rather a reflection of the coin’s exceptional rarity and condition. The 1926-S Buffalo nickel is the rarest regular-issue coin in the entire series, with fewer than 1,000 examples surviving today in all grades combined. While some Buffalo nickels trade for face value, others command astronomical premiums. This guide reveals which dates to look for, their key traits, and the history behind their rarity. What Makes the Buffalo Nickel Special The Buffalo nickel series combines artistic achievement with inherent design ‘flaws’ that created both beauty and rarity. Watch this brief video to understand how these coins became some of America’s most distinctive currency. Fraser’s art James Earle Fraser’s Native American portrait and American bison design replaced the Liberty Head nickel’s classical female profile. Fraser, commissioned to create distinctly American imagery, used living Native American chiefs as models – Iron Tail of the Lakota and Two Moons of the Cheyenne – rather than idealized fictional figures. The reverse featured Black Diamond, an actual bison from New York’s Central Park Zoo. This marked the first time U.S. coinage depicted real American subjects and wildlife instead of mythological goddesses and eagles, creating what Fraser called “truly American” money. Image: Historical photograph of Iron Tail, one of the Native American chiefs used as a model for Fraser’s Buffalo Nickel design, shown alongside the coin’s obverse. Source: Dime Library The date problem Unlike previous nickels where dates were recessed and protected, Fraser placed the Buffalo nickel’s date in raised relief on the Indian’s shoulder, i.e. one of the coin’s highest points. This positioning made the date the first element to contact surfaces during circulation, causing it to wear away quickly. Within just a few years of use, millions of Buffalo nickels became completely dateless. This design flaw created an unintended rarity scale: coins with sharp, fully readable dates now command significant premiums over their worn counterparts. While Buffalo nickel no date specimens have limited collector value, they represent a fascinating aspect of the series’ design challenges. Image: Worn Buffalo Nickel showing completely missing date due to circulation wear on the raised relief design. Source: NGC Short series, big impact Unlike series that ran for decades, Buffalo nickel production lasted only 25 years (1913-1938). This compressed timeline created natural scarcity, especially for low-mintage issues from the San Francisco and Denver mints. The 1926-S: King of Buffalo Nickels Low mintage, poor survival rates, and decades of collector pursuit have made the 1926-S the undisputed king of Buffalo nickels. Image: 1926-S Buffalo Nickel obverse and reverse, the key date rarity with only 970,000 minted, showing “S” mint mark. Source: PCGS Rarity facts By 1926, the Buffalo nickel series was winding down, with most mints reducing production significantly. The San Francisco Mint produced only 970,000 Buffalo nickels in 1926, compared to 119,001,420 Philadelphia pieces struck that same year. This makes the 1926-S nearly 123 times scarcer than its common counterpart from the start. Survival rates Numismatists estimate fewer than 1,000 examples survive in all grades combined today. Most circulated heavily on the West Coast during the late 1920s and 1930s, with the majority lost to pocket change or melted during metal drives. The typical survivor shows significant wear, with sharp specimens representing perhaps 1-2% of the original mintage. Grade sensitivity With so few 1926-S examples surviving, even minor condition differences create dramatic value gaps. A coin that retains sharp design details commands exponentially more than one with worn features. This grade sensitivity exceeds that of common Buffalo nickels, where moving up one or two grade levels might double the value. For the 1926-S, the same grade improvement can increase value by ten times or more. Complete Key Date Breakdown Beyond the legendary 1926-S, the Buffalo nickel series contains multiple dates that command significant premiums. The Big Four Semi-Keys (1924-D, 1924-S, 1925-D, 1925-S) These four dates represent another tier of Buffalo Nickel rarities, each produced during the series’ declining years when mint output dropped significantly. The 1924-S proves scarcest with only 1,437,000 pieces minted, followed by the 1925-D at 4,450,000, the 1924-D at 5,258,000, and the 1925-S at 6,256,000. While these mintages seem substantial compared to the 1926-S, survival rates remain low due to heavy West Coast and Mountain West circulation patterns that wore most specimens down to Good or Very Good condition. Denver mint examples from this period often show characteristic weak strikes, particularly in the bison’s shoulder and the Native American’s hair details. San Francisco pieces typically display better overall sharpness but can suffer from die polish lines in the fields. Collectors should examine the area below “FIVE CENTS” carefully, as genuine mint marks show proper depth and positioning that distinguish them from common Philadelphia issues or altered specimens. The 1935 Semi-Keys (1935-D and 1935-S) 1935-D Production and Characteristics The Denver Mint struck 12,092,000 Buffalo nickels in 1935, representing a significant drop from earlier 1930s production levels. Denver coins from this year show distinctive die polish lines in the fields and often display weak definition in the bison’s leg muscles due to the facility using older dies longer during this period. The “D” mint mark typically appears slightly smaller and less deeply impressed than on earlier Denver issues. 1935-S Production and Characteristics San Francisco produced 10,300,000 pieces in 1935, marking the final year of substantial West Coast Buffalo nickel production. These coins typically exhibit superior overall sharpness compared to Denver issues but suffer from characteristic die cracks that run from the rim through the Native American’s shoulder. The “S” mint mark on 1935 issues appears more deeply impressed than on most earlier San Francisco Buffalo nickels. Strike quality Both the Denver and San Francisco facilities struggled with die maintenance during 1935, producing coins with notably softer details than their Philadelphia counterparts. This weakness particularly affects the bison’s shoulder fur and the Native American’s hair braids, making well-struck examples especially desirable. Collectors seeking quality 1935 Buffalo nickel specimens should prioritize coins with sharp strikes and full design details over those showing typical mint weaknesses. The 1936-D: Overlooked Key Date Mintage reality While 24,814,000 pieces might seem like a large number, the 1936-D becomes genuinely scarce when compared to the Philadelphia Mint’s massive 119,001,420 production that same year. This nearly 5-to-1 ratio means the Denver issue represents less than 17% of total 1936 Buffalo nickel production, yet many collectors overlook this disparity when focusing on the more famous key dates. Grade availability Denver’s characteristic weak strikes during 1936 Buffalo nickel production resulted in coins with soft details from the moment they left the mint. Combined with heavy circulation in western states, finding 1936-D examples in Mint State grades proves exceptionally difficult, with most survivors grading Very Fine or lower. This scarcity in higher grades significantly impacts 1936 Buffalo nickel value, with well-preserved Denver specimens commanding premiums that reflect their true rarity. The 1937-D 3 Legged Buffalo Nickel Image: 1937-D Three-Legged Buffalo Nickel obverse and reverse showing the famous error where the buffalo’s front right leg is completely missing. Source: PCGS Error story During 1937 production at the Denver Mint, an overenthusiastic die polisher attempted to remove clash marks from a reverse die by grinding away metal from the surface. This excessive polishing accidentally removed the bison’s right front leg entirely, creating one of the most famous error coins in U.S. Mint history. The damaged die continued striking coins until mint officials discovered the problem, producing several thousand three-legged specimens before replacement. This error dramatically affects 1937 Buffalo nickel value, with three-legged examples commanding substantial premiums over normal strikes. Identification guide The genuine 3 legged Buffalo nickel shows complete absence of the bison’s right front leg, with the area appearing as smooth, uninterrupted ground. This differs dramatically from common die wear, which gradually weakens leg details but leaves partial outlines or shadow impressions. The missing leg creates an unnatural gap between the bison’s body and the ground line that cannot be mistaken for normal circulation wear. 1937-D Buffalo Nickel Value breakdown Even heavily worn three-legged buffalo examples command substantial premiums because the error remains clearly visible regardless of grade. The dramatic visual impact of the missing leg creates instant recognition among collectors, sustaining demand across all condition levels from damaged pieces to pristine mint state examples. This error variety represents the pinnacle of 1937 Buffalo Nickel collecting, with values far exceeding normal Denver strikes from the same year. Authentication tips Genuine specimens show specific die markers including a small raised dot below the bison’s belly and characteristic weakness in the “E” of “AMERICA.” The die polishing also created subtle texture differences in the field areas that counterfeiters struggle to replicate convincingly. Overdate Varieties (1918/7-D, 1914/3) Technical details During World War I, the U.S. Mint faced severe cost pressures and material shortages that made die conservation essential. Rather than scrapping 1917-dated dies at year’s end, the Denver Mint repunched them with “8” over the final “7” to create 1918 dies. Similarly, leftover 1913 dies received a “4” punched over the “3” for 1914 production. This wartime economy measure created these distinctive overdate varieties that showcase the mint’s resourcefulness during national crises. Visual identification The 1918/7-D shows clear remnants of the underlying “7” beneath the “8,” particularly visible as curved lines extending beyond the “8’s” lower loop. The 1914/3 displays portions of the “3’s” upper and lower curves protruding from behind the “4,” most evident under magnification at the date’s right side. Both overdates require careful examination, as the underlying numerals appear as subtle but definitive shadows. The 1916 Doubled Die Obverse Image: 1916 Buffalo Nickel doubled die obverse and reverse showing the dramatic doubling error in the date digits. Source: PCGS Doubling locations A doubled die error occurs when a coin die receives two slightly misaligned impressions during manufacturing, creating overlapping images on the finished coin. The 1916 Buffalo Nickel doubled die shows this defect most clearly in the date, where the final digits – “16” – appear twice: the original numbers plus a second set offset to the right. This creates a shadow or double-vision effect that makes the date appear blurred or duplicated when examined closely. Grading considerations Many 1916 doubled die examples circulated for years before collectors recognized the error, meaning most survivors show significant wear. The doubling remains visible even in lower grades, but mint state examples prove exceptionally valuable due to their rarity and the pristine visibility of the error. Market position This variety rivals the 1926-S for supremacy among Buffalo nickel rarities because it combines extreme scarcity with the appeal of a dramatic mint error. Error coins attract both specialists and general error coin collectors, expanding the potential buyer base and driving Buffalo nickel value into six-figure territory for high-grade examples. Modern Times: The 2005 Buffalo Nickel Comeback Nearly seventy years after the last Buffalo nickel rolled off mint presses, Fraser’s iconic design returned to American coinage. Westward Journey series The U.S. Mint revived Fraser’s bison design in 2005 as part of the Westward Journey nickel series commemorating the Lewis and Clark expedition bicentennial. This marked the first time since 1938 that the beloved buffalo appeared on circulating American coins, generating excitement among both collectors and the general public. Collectible potential While most of the 2005 Buffalo nickel coins remain common, certain varieties show premium potential including coins with strong strikes, full steps detail, and pristine surfaces. Special mint set examples and first-day-of-issue specimens attract collector interest beyond face value. Investment Perspective: The Buffalo Nickel in 2025 Buffalo nickels occupy a unique position in today’s collecting market, offering genuine rarity, often at accessible price points, within the broader spectrum of tangible asset investment options. Advantages Affordable entry Key dates like the 1924-S and 1925-D remain accessible to new collectors, with entry-level examples available at modest premiums. This affordability allows collectors to acquire genuine rarities without the substantial financial commitment required for many other classic American series. Following proven rare coin investing strategies helps collectors focus on quality specimens and undervalued opportunities within the Buffalo nickel market. Artistic appeal Fraser’s distinctive Native American and bison imagery attracts collectors beyond traditional numismatists, including Western art enthusiasts and history buffs who appreciate the coins’ cultural significance. Completion potential The series’ 25-year span makes complete date and mint mark sets achievable goals, unlike longer series that require decades to assemble. Considerations Date visibility The series’ inherent design weakness means many specimens suffer from partial or complete date loss, requiring careful authentication of readable examples. Grading costs Professional grading expenses must be weighed against potential Buffalo nickel value increases, particularly for mid-grade specimens. Understanding numismatic grading standards and certification processes helps collectors determine when third-party authentication justifies the expense. Conclusion Buffalo nickels transformed American coinage by replacing classical allegory with authentic American subjects: real Native American chiefs and actual wildlife from the frontier. Fraser’s artistic revolution created coins that captured a vanishing way of life, making them culturally significant beyond their numismatic value. This cultural importance drives sustained collector demand across all economic levels. While key dates like the 1926-S command astronomical prices, the series also offers affordable semi-keys and common dates that allow participation without major financial commitment. The 25-year production span creates a manageable collecting goal compared to series spanning decades. Understanding rarity factors, from mintage figures to survival rates to authentication markers, separates successful Buffalo nickel collectors from casual buyers. These coins reward knowledge and patience, offering both historical connection and potential appreciation for those who study the market carefully. Explore Blanchard’s current Buffalo nickel inventory to discover authenticated examples of these remarkable American coins, backed by decades of numismatic expertise and market knowledge. FAQs 1. How much is a Buffalo nickel worth? Buffalo nickel value depends entirely on date, mint mark, and condition. Common dates from the 1930s typically trade near face value in worn condition, while key dates like the 1926-S and error coins like the 1937-D 3 legged Buffalo nickel command substantial premiums regardless of grade. 2. How much is a 2005 Buffalo nickel worth? Most 2005 Buffalo Nickels remain common and trade at face value since they were produced in large quantities for circulation. However, exceptionally well-preserved examples or coins from special mint sets may carry modest collector premiums. 3. Where is the date on a Buffalo nickel? The date appears on the obverse of the coin, positioned on the Native American’s shoulder below the portrait. This raised placement made the date vulnerable to wear, causing many Buffalo Nickels to become completely dateless through normal circulation. 4. Where is the mint mark on a Buffalo nickel? The mint mark is located on the reverse, below the words “FIVE CENTS.” Look for a small “D” (Denver) or “S” (San Francisco) in this position. Coins without mint marks were produced at the Philadelphia Mint. The post 1926-S Buffalo Nickel: Complete Guide to Key Dates and Rarity Factors appeared first on Blanchard and Company. -
1926-S Buffalo Nickel: Complete Guide to Key Dates and Rarity Factors
um tópico no fórum postou Redator Radar do Mercado
To most people, nickels represent pocket change worth five cents. But in April 2008, a single 1926-S Buffalo nickel sold for $322,000 at auction. This was no coincidence, but rather a reflection of the coin’s exceptional rarity and condition. The 1926-S Buffalo nickel is the rarest regular-issue coin in the entire series, with fewer than 1,000 examples surviving today in all grades combined. While some Buffalo nickels trade for face value, others command astronomical premiums. This guide reveals which dates to look for, their key traits, and the history behind their rarity. What Makes the Buffalo Nickel Special The Buffalo nickel series combines artistic achievement with inherent design ‘flaws’ that created both beauty and rarity. Watch this brief video to understand how these coins became some of America’s most distinctive currency. Fraser’s art James Earle Fraser’s Native American portrait and American bison design replaced the Liberty Head nickel’s classical female profile. Fraser, commissioned to create distinctly American imagery, used living Native American chiefs as models – Iron Tail of the Lakota and Two Moons of the Cheyenne – rather than idealized fictional figures. The reverse featured Black Diamond, an actual bison from New York’s Central Park Zoo. This marked the first time U.S. coinage depicted real American subjects and wildlife instead of mythological goddesses and eagles, creating what Fraser called “truly American” money. Image: Historical photograph of Iron Tail, one of the Native American chiefs used as a model for Fraser’s Buffalo Nickel design, shown alongside the coin’s obverse. Source: Dime Library The date problem Unlike previous nickels where dates were recessed and protected, Fraser placed the Buffalo nickel’s date in raised relief on the Indian’s shoulder, i.e. one of the coin’s highest points. This positioning made the date the first element to contact surfaces during circulation, causing it to wear away quickly. Within just a few years of use, millions of Buffalo nickels became completely dateless. This design flaw created an unintended rarity scale: coins with sharp, fully readable dates now command significant premiums over their worn counterparts. While Buffalo nickel no date specimens have limited collector value, they represent a fascinating aspect of the series’ design challenges. Image: Worn Buffalo Nickel showing completely missing date due to circulation wear on the raised relief design. Source: NGC Short series, big impact Unlike series that ran for decades, Buffalo nickel production lasted only 25 years (1913-1938). This compressed timeline created natural scarcity, especially for low-mintage issues from the San Francisco and Denver mints. The 1926-S: King of Buffalo Nickels Low mintage, poor survival rates, and decades of collector pursuit have made the 1926-S the undisputed king of Buffalo nickels. Image: 1926-S Buffalo Nickel obverse and reverse, the key date rarity with only 970,000 minted, showing “S” mint mark. Source: PCGS Rarity facts By 1926, the Buffalo nickel series was winding down, with most mints reducing production significantly. The San Francisco Mint produced only 970,000 Buffalo nickels in 1926, compared to 119,001,420 Philadelphia pieces struck that same year. This makes the 1926-S nearly 123 times scarcer than its common counterpart from the start. Survival rates Numismatists estimate fewer than 1,000 examples survive in all grades combined today. Most circulated heavily on the West Coast during the late 1920s and 1930s, with the majority lost to pocket change or melted during metal drives. The typical survivor shows significant wear, with sharp specimens representing perhaps 1-2% of the original mintage. Grade sensitivity With so few 1926-S examples surviving, even minor condition differences create dramatic value gaps. A coin that retains sharp design details commands exponentially more than one with worn features. This grade sensitivity exceeds that of common Buffalo nickels, where moving up one or two grade levels might double the value. For the 1926-S, the same grade improvement can increase value by ten times or more. Complete Key Date Breakdown Beyond the legendary 1926-S, the Buffalo nickel series contains multiple dates that command significant premiums. The Big Four Semi-Keys (1924-D, 1924-S, 1925-D, 1925-S) These four dates represent another tier of Buffalo Nickel rarities, each produced during the series’ declining years when mint output dropped significantly. The 1924-S proves scarcest with only 1,437,000 pieces minted, followed by the 1925-D at 4,450,000, the 1924-D at 5,258,000, and the 1925-S at 6,256,000. While these mintages seem substantial compared to the 1926-S, survival rates remain low due to heavy West Coast and Mountain West circulation patterns that wore most specimens down to Good or Very Good condition. Denver mint examples from this period often show characteristic weak strikes, particularly in the bison’s shoulder and the Native American’s hair details. San Francisco pieces typically display better overall sharpness but can suffer from die polish lines in the fields. Collectors should examine the area below “FIVE CENTS” carefully, as genuine mint marks show proper depth and positioning that distinguish them from common Philadelphia issues or altered specimens. The 1935 Semi-Keys (1935-D and 1935-S) 1935-D Production and Characteristics The Denver Mint struck 12,092,000 Buffalo nickels in 1935, representing a significant drop from earlier 1930s production levels. Denver coins from this year show distinctive die polish lines in the fields and often display weak definition in the bison’s leg muscles due to the facility using older dies longer during this period. The “D” mint mark typically appears slightly smaller and less deeply impressed than on earlier Denver issues. 1935-S Production and Characteristics San Francisco produced 10,300,000 pieces in 1935, marking the final year of substantial West Coast Buffalo nickel production. These coins typically exhibit superior overall sharpness compared to Denver issues but suffer from characteristic die cracks that run from the rim through the Native American’s shoulder. The “S” mint mark on 1935 issues appears more deeply impressed than on most earlier San Francisco Buffalo nickels. Strike quality Both the Denver and San Francisco facilities struggled with die maintenance during 1935, producing coins with notably softer details than their Philadelphia counterparts. This weakness particularly affects the bison’s shoulder fur and the Native American’s hair braids, making well-struck examples especially desirable. Collectors seeking quality 1935 Buffalo nickel specimens should prioritize coins with sharp strikes and full design details over those showing typical mint weaknesses. The 1936-D: Overlooked Key Date Mintage reality While 24,814,000 pieces might seem like a large number, the 1936-D becomes genuinely scarce when compared to the Philadelphia Mint’s massive 119,001,420 production that same year. This nearly 5-to-1 ratio means the Denver issue represents less than 17% of total 1936 Buffalo nickel production, yet many collectors overlook this disparity when focusing on the more famous key dates. Grade availability Denver’s characteristic weak strikes during 1936 Buffalo nickel production resulted in coins with soft details from the moment they left the mint. Combined with heavy circulation in western states, finding 1936-D examples in Mint State grades proves exceptionally difficult, with most survivors grading Very Fine or lower. This scarcity in higher grades significantly impacts 1936 Buffalo nickel value, with well-preserved Denver specimens commanding premiums that reflect their true rarity. The 1937-D 3 Legged Buffalo Nickel Image: 1937-D Three-Legged Buffalo Nickel obverse and reverse showing the famous error where the buffalo’s front right leg is completely missing. Source: PCGS Error story During 1937 production at the Denver Mint, an overenthusiastic die polisher attempted to remove clash marks from a reverse die by grinding away metal from the surface. This excessive polishing accidentally removed the bison’s right front leg entirely, creating one of the most famous error coins in U.S. Mint history. The damaged die continued striking coins until mint officials discovered the problem, producing several thousand three-legged specimens before replacement. This error dramatically affects 1937 Buffalo nickel value, with three-legged examples commanding substantial premiums over normal strikes. Identification guide The genuine 3 legged Buffalo nickel shows complete absence of the bison’s right front leg, with the area appearing as smooth, uninterrupted ground. This differs dramatically from common die wear, which gradually weakens leg details but leaves partial outlines or shadow impressions. The missing leg creates an unnatural gap between the bison’s body and the ground line that cannot be mistaken for normal circulation wear. 1937-D Buffalo Nickel Value breakdown Even heavily worn three-legged buffalo examples command substantial premiums because the error remains clearly visible regardless of grade. The dramatic visual impact of the missing leg creates instant recognition among collectors, sustaining demand across all condition levels from damaged pieces to pristine mint state examples. This error variety represents the pinnacle of 1937 Buffalo Nickel collecting, with values far exceeding normal Denver strikes from the same year. Authentication tips Genuine specimens show specific die markers including a small raised dot below the bison’s belly and characteristic weakness in the “E” of “AMERICA.” The die polishing also created subtle texture differences in the field areas that counterfeiters struggle to replicate convincingly. Overdate Varieties (1918/7-D, 1914/3) Technical details During World War I, the U.S. Mint faced severe cost pressures and material shortages that made die conservation essential. Rather than scrapping 1917-dated dies at year’s end, the Denver Mint repunched them with “8” over the final “7” to create 1918 dies. Similarly, leftover 1913 dies received a “4” punched over the “3” for 1914 production. This wartime economy measure created these distinctive overdate varieties that showcase the mint’s resourcefulness during national crises. Visual identification The 1918/7-D shows clear remnants of the underlying “7” beneath the “8,” particularly visible as curved lines extending beyond the “8’s” lower loop. The 1914/3 displays portions of the “3’s” upper and lower curves protruding from behind the “4,” most evident under magnification at the date’s right side. Both overdates require careful examination, as the underlying numerals appear as subtle but definitive shadows. The 1916 Doubled Die Obverse Image: 1916 Buffalo Nickel doubled die obverse and reverse showing the dramatic doubling error in the date digits. Source: PCGS Doubling locations A doubled die error occurs when a coin die receives two slightly misaligned impressions during manufacturing, creating overlapping images on the finished coin. The 1916 Buffalo Nickel doubled die shows this defect most clearly in the date, where the final digits – “16” – appear twice: the original numbers plus a second set offset to the right. This creates a shadow or double-vision effect that makes the date appear blurred or duplicated when examined closely. Grading considerations Many 1916 doubled die examples circulated for years before collectors recognized the error, meaning most survivors show significant wear. The doubling remains visible even in lower grades, but mint state examples prove exceptionally valuable due to their rarity and the pristine visibility of the error. Market position This variety rivals the 1926-S for supremacy among Buffalo nickel rarities because it combines extreme scarcity with the appeal of a dramatic mint error. Error coins attract both specialists and general error coin collectors, expanding the potential buyer base and driving Buffalo nickel value into six-figure territory for high-grade examples. Modern Times: The 2005 Buffalo Nickel Comeback Nearly seventy years after the last Buffalo nickel rolled off mint presses, Fraser’s iconic design returned to American coinage. Westward Journey series The U.S. Mint revived Fraser’s bison design in 2005 as part of the Westward Journey nickel series commemorating the Lewis and Clark expedition bicentennial. This marked the first time since 1938 that the beloved buffalo appeared on circulating American coins, generating excitement among both collectors and the general public. Collectible potential While most of the 2005 Buffalo nickel coins remain common, certain varieties show premium potential including coins with strong strikes, full steps detail, and pristine surfaces. Special mint set examples and first-day-of-issue specimens attract collector interest beyond face value. Investment Perspective: The Buffalo Nickel in 2025 Buffalo nickels occupy a unique position in today’s collecting market, offering genuine rarity, often at accessible price points, within the broader spectrum of tangible asset investment options. Advantages Affordable entry Key dates like the 1924-S and 1925-D remain accessible to new collectors, with entry-level examples available at modest premiums. This affordability allows collectors to acquire genuine rarities without the substantial financial commitment required for many other classic American series. Following proven rare coin investing strategies helps collectors focus on quality specimens and undervalued opportunities within the Buffalo nickel market. Artistic appeal Fraser’s distinctive Native American and bison imagery attracts collectors beyond traditional numismatists, including Western art enthusiasts and history buffs who appreciate the coins’ cultural significance. Completion potential The series’ 25-year span makes complete date and mint mark sets achievable goals, unlike longer series that require decades to assemble. Considerations Date visibility The series’ inherent design weakness means many specimens suffer from partial or complete date loss, requiring careful authentication of readable examples. Grading costs Professional grading expenses must be weighed against potential Buffalo nickel value increases, particularly for mid-grade specimens. Understanding numismatic grading standards and certification processes helps collectors determine when third-party authentication justifies the expense. Conclusion Buffalo nickels transformed American coinage by replacing classical allegory with authentic American subjects: real Native American chiefs and actual wildlife from the frontier. Fraser’s artistic revolution created coins that captured a vanishing way of life, making them culturally significant beyond their numismatic value. This cultural importance drives sustained collector demand across all economic levels. While key dates like the 1926-S command astronomical prices, the series also offers affordable semi-keys and common dates that allow participation without major financial commitment. The 25-year production span creates a manageable collecting goal compared to series spanning decades. Understanding rarity factors, from mintage figures to survival rates to authentication markers, separates successful Buffalo nickel collectors from casual buyers. These coins reward knowledge and patience, offering both historical connection and potential appreciation for those who study the market carefully. Explore Blanchard’s current Buffalo nickel inventory to discover authenticated examples of these remarkable American coins, backed by decades of numismatic expertise and market knowledge. FAQs 1. How much is a Buffalo nickel worth? Buffalo nickel value depends entirely on date, mint mark, and condition. Common dates from the 1930s typically trade near face value in worn condition, while key dates like the 1926-S and error coins like the 1937-D 3 legged Buffalo nickel command substantial premiums regardless of grade. 2. How much is a 2005 Buffalo nickel worth? Most 2005 Buffalo Nickels remain common and trade at face value since they were produced in large quantities for circulation. However, exceptionally well-preserved examples or coins from special mint sets may carry modest collector premiums. 3. Where is the date on a Buffalo nickel? The date appears on the obverse of the coin, positioned on the Native American’s shoulder below the portrait. This raised placement made the date vulnerable to wear, causing many Buffalo Nickels to become completely dateless through normal circulation. 4. Where is the mint mark on a Buffalo nickel? The mint mark is located on the reverse, below the words “FIVE CENTS.” Look for a small “D” (Denver) or “S” (San Francisco) in this position. Coins without mint marks were produced at the Philadelphia Mint. The post 1926-S Buffalo Nickel: Complete Guide to Key Dates and Rarity Factors appeared first on Blanchard and Company. -
Bitcoin technical analysis and price prediction for today and this week One can say that bitcoin is still hot and that is probably right. But when it was hotter, big companies that buy and hold it (we call them "Bitcoin treasury companies") were super popular at a recent conference in Hong Kong. We can see from the data that they own more Bitcoin than ever before. But a new report shows they're not buying it as fast or as much as they used to. Basically, they're being more careful with their money now. Even though crypto companies now hold a record 840,000 Bitcoin, a new report shows they are buying much less at a time. For instance, the leading buyer, Strategy, is now only buying about 1,200 Bitcoin per transaction, an 86% drop from its purchases earlier this year. This suggests these companies are either running low on cash or are becoming more cautious. Bitcoin Futures Technical Analysis & Price Prediction for Today — tradeCompass (September 8, 2025) Before today’s Bitcoin technical analysis, here’s a quick, flowing backdrop from our newsroom at investingLive: reserve strategy made headlines as El Salvador bought gold for the first time since 1990 to diversify away from Bitcoin — a tilt that can read mildly bearish-BTC / bullish-gold. Policy risk also featured, with Japan considering tighter crypto regulation and enforcement, often a chill for speculative appetite. On the other side of the ledger, the “institutional adoption” drum kept beating as our team explored why some institutions might “accidentally” end up HODLing Bitcoin this Friday, while U.S. politics added intrigue after Eric Trump teased a “big announcement” for Friday. None of these headlines alone set a single, clear-cut direction, but together they create a useful soundtrack for today’s Bitcoin price prediction map. Bullish above: 112,000 Bearish below: 111,520 Current price: 112,035 Primary bias: Leaning bullish while holding above 112,000 (Friday’s VWAP) Bitcoin Price Prediction Map: Context & Bias Price is hovering just above the bullish threshold (112,000), keeping a modest upside lean while it holds. A decisive drop below 111,520 flips the map to bearish and shifts focus to Friday/early-September profile nodes. Bitcoin Key Levels & Profit Targets for Today (tradeCompass) Bullish plan for Bitcoin futures today (above 112,000) 112,465 – Near today’s 3rd upper VWAP deviation; momentum often pauses/exhausts here. 112,620 – Just under Friday’s VAH; per tradeCompass, move stop to breakeven after TP2. 112,895 – Around Sep 3 POC; strong “price magnet” on rotations. 113,120 – Near Sep 3 VAH; watch for responsive flows. 113,475 – In line with Aug 28 POC; deeper extension target. 113,945 – Just under Aug 28 VAH; stretch objective into prior acceptance. Bearish plan for Bitcoin futures today (below 111,520) 111,250 – First partial; local liquidity pocket on activation. 111,050 – Friday’s POC; if reached, shift stop to entry. 110,755 – Above Sep 4 VWAP / Sep 2 VAL cluster; reaction zone. 110,295 – Just over Sep 4 POC; continuation checkpoint. 109,760 – Near Sep 4 VAL; key downside objective. How to use this Bitcoin technical analysis “compass” If price fails to sustain above 112,000, range fades can re-emerge; a clean break below 111,520 signals a deeper bearish phase toward the profile targets. We keep it disciplined: one trade per direction per day to curb overtrading. Scale out at logical levels; after TP2, protect the remainder by moving the stop to breakeven. Educational mini-note: Dynamic VWAP bands in crypto VWAP bands expand in trends and contract in ranges. On BTC futures, third-deviation tags (e.g., 112,465 today) frequently mark areas where momentum cools or flips, making them sensible partial-profit zones rather than “all-or-nothing” targets. Risk & stop logic (tradeCompass at investingLive.com) Set your stop just beyond your activation (entry-side) threshold with a small buffer—not on the line, not far. Never place a stop beyond the opposite threshold; if that level is breached, the setup is invalid and you should already be out. After TP2, move the stop to entry (breakeven) to safeguard gains and manage the runner. Disclaimer, Crypto Investors and Traders of All Kind This Bitcoin price prediction & technical analysis is decision support, not financial advice. Futures and crypto carry substantial risk. Manage size and risk carefully, and trade at your own discretion. Visit investingLive.com (formerly ForexLive.com) for additional views. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.
-
The GBP/JPY pair opened the new trading week with a bullish gap, reaching the July 2024 high near 200.35 during the Asian session. However, after hitting the daily high, the pair pulled back and is now trading below the psychological level of 200.00. The broad weakening of the Japanese yen is linked to news of the unexpected resignation of Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, which acted as a catalyst for GBP/JPY's rise. At the same time, domestic political turmoil outweighs the impact of the U.S.–Japan trade agreement, which provides for tariff reductions and higher GDP growth forecasts for Japan in Q2. On Monday, the Japanese government reported that the economy grew 2.2% year-on-year from April to June, significantly above the initial 1.0% forecast. On a quarterly basis, GDP rose 0.5%, beating the 0.3% consensus. These figures strengthen expectations of a possible Bank of Japan rate hike by year-end and help to limit further yen depreciation. On the other hand, the British pound is under pressure from the moderate strengthening of the U.S. dollar and persistent budget uncertainty. This largely offsets the Bank of England's cautious stance on potential rate cuts amid ongoing inflation risks, limiting the GBP/JPY pair's intraday upward potential and requiring traders to exercise caution when opening long positions. From a technical perspective, although prices have slipped below the 200.00 level, the pair found strong support at 199.400. Oscillators on the daily chart remain positive, so traders leaning toward selling should refrain from opening positions. Those aiming for growth should also be cautious and wait for a move back above the 200.00 level. The table below shows the percentage changes in the Japanese yen against major currencies for the current day. The yen showed the greatest weakness against the British pound. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
-
HSBC expects BOE to stay on the sidelines until April 2026
um tópico no fórum postou Redator Radar do Mercado
Well, I think they're just a bit late to update their call as market expectations for the BOE have been quite settled for a while now. As things stand, traders are not seeing any more rate cuts for this year but are pricing in a strong probability of the next one being in February 2026. As for the first full rate cut priced in though, that will be for March next year. Besides inflation risks, the November budget is going to be a key factor to watch in taking stock of the fiscal side of things for the UK economy. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. -
On Friday, the EUR/USD pair continued its upward movement after rebounding from the support zone of 1.1637–1.1645. It consolidated above the 76.4% retracement level at 1.1695, after which the pair pulled back. Today, the growth may continue toward the next 100.0% retracement level at 1.1789. A move below 1.1695 would favor the U.S. dollar and some decline toward the 1.1637–1.1645 level. The wave picture on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed upward wave did not break the previous peaks, while the most recent downward wave did not breach the previous low. Thus, the trend continues to shift toward "bullish," although the likelihood of sideways movement remains high. Recent labor market data and revised Fed monetary policy prospects are supporting the bulls. On Friday, the news background strongly supported the bulls, possibly giving them the momentum needed for a new large-scale advance. In recent weeks, the market had been moving sideways, but I have repeatedly noted that such sideways movement is only a pause before new growth. I still see no grounds for the bears to launch serious attacks. Friday's labor market and unemployment reports from the U.S. only confirmed my view. The labor market continues to cool, creating very few new jobs. American companies are not considering hiring, expansion, or increasing production. Unemployment is rising. If the reports had shown at least "average" figures, one could hope that the FOMC might cut rates once or twice before year-end. But each new report from the U.S. says the same thing: the economy needs stimulus. Thus, I believe the Fed will cut rates three times before the end of the year. We may even see a 0.50% easing move. On the 4-hour chart, the pair continues to trade in a sideways range, where traders have been stuck for several weeks. Thus, the sideways movement continues. The CCI indicator has formed a "bullish" divergence, warning of possible growth in the near term, but within the horizontal channel. A breakout above or below the range would allow expectations of a renewed trend. Commitments of Traders (COT) report: Over the last reporting week, professional traders closed 2,726 long positions and opened 751 short positions. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group remains bullish, supported by Donald Trump's policies, and continues to strengthen. The total number of long positions held by speculators is now 255,000, compared with 136,000 short positions. The gap is nearly twofold. Also, note the number of green cells in the table above, which reflect a strong build-up of euro positions. In most cases, interest in the euro is growing while interest in the dollar is falling. For 30 consecutive weeks, large traders have been reducing shorts and adding longs. Donald Trump's policies remain the most significant factor for traders, as they may cause numerous long-term and structural problems for America. Despite the signing of several important trade agreements, some key economic indicators continue to show declines. News calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone: Eurozone – German industrial production change (06:00 UTC). On September 8, the economic calendar contains only one entry. The impact of the news background on market sentiment will be weak and limited to the morning. EUR/USD forecast and trader tips: I see no potential sell signals for the pair today. Buying was possible on a rebound from the 1.1637–1.1645 level with a target of 1.1695. This target has been met. A close above 1.1695 allows traders to keep long positions open with a target of 1.1789. Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.1789–1.1392 on the hourly chart and from 1.1214–1.0179 on the 4-hour chart. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
-
On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Friday continued its upward movement after rebounding from the support zone of 1.3416–1.3425 and consolidated above the 76.4% retracement level at 1.3482. The rebound from this level overnight suggests further pound growth toward the next Fibonacci level of 100.0% at 1.3587. A move below 1.3482 would favor the U.S. dollar and some decline toward the 1.3416–1.3425 level. The wave structure remains "bearish." The last completed downward wave broke through two previous lows at once, while the latest upward wave has not yet managed to surpass the previous peak. The news background has played a significant role in shaping the waves we've seen in recent weeks. In my view, the backdrop is not "bearish," but the current waves point to either a continuation of the bearish trend or sideways movement. On Friday, bear traders suffered another blow that they may not recover from anytime soon. The Nonfarm Payrolls report showed weak figures for the fourth consecutive month. Not only is job creation minimal, but unemployment is also rising. Other reports on the day, including U.K. retail sales, also worked in favor of the bulls. Thus, the three most important releases on Friday all pointed only to GBP/USD growth. On the 4-hour chart, sideways movement is clearly visible, but the latest news background allows me to assume that after the range ends, we will see new pound growth rather than dollar growth. The dollar continues to balance on the edge and cannot find even a straw to hold onto. The situation is worsening by the day, as the FOMC will ease monetary policy in September, and this will not be a one-time action to satisfy Trump. On the 4-hour chart, the pair has also reversed in favor of the pound and consolidated above the 1.3378–1.3435 level. This means the growth process may continue toward the next retracement level of 127.2% at 1.3795. The chart remains mixed, with traders pushing the pair back and forth. At this point, I recommend focusing more on the hourly chart. No developing divergences are observed on any indicator. Commitments of Traders (COT) report: Sentiment among "Non-commercial" traders over the last reporting week became slightly more bearish. The number of long contracts held by speculators increased by 61, while shorts rose by 1,848. The gap between longs and shorts now stands at about 76,000 vs. 109,000. Still, as we can see, the pound remains tilted toward growth, and traders are leaning toward buying. In my opinion, the pound still has downward prospects. For the first six months of the year, the U.S. dollar's backdrop was terrible, but it is slowly improving. Trade tensions are easing, key deals are being signed, and the U.S. economy should recover in Q2 thanks to tariffs and various investments in the country. At the same time, prospects for Fed easing in the second half of the year are already putting serious pressure on the dollar, while the U.S. labor market is weakening and unemployment is rising. Thus, I still see no grounds for a "dollar trend." News calendar for the U.S. and the U.K.: On September 8, the economic calendar contains no notable entries. Market sentiment on Monday will not be influenced by news. GBP/USD forecast and trading tips: Selling the pair is possible today if it consolidates below 1.3482 on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.3416–1.3425. Buying was possible on rebounds from the 1.3357–1.3364 and 1.3416–1.3425 level. Today, those positions can be held with a target of 1.3587 if there is a rebound from 1.3482. Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.3586–1.3139 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
-
Bitcoin LTH Aging Velocity Turns Negative: Distribution Phase Unfolds
um tópico no fórum postou Redator Radar do Mercado
Bitcoin is once again at a pivotal level, with selling pressure dominating the market and volatility shaking investor confidence. After weeks of choppy trading, BTC is barely holding above the $110,000 mark, a threshold that many analysts view as critical for maintaining a bullish structure. Momentum has clearly shifted in recent sessions, and the market is now bracing for the possibility of a deeper correction. Adding to the concern, top analyst Axel Adler shared insights from the Bitcoin UTXO Age Metrics, which reveal growing signs of distribution from long-term holders. Historically, when older coins begin to move, it often signals that experienced investors are taking profits and releasing supply back into the market. Such behavior has repeatedly preceded periods of downside pressure, as the influx of long-held BTC creates hurdles for bulls to overcome. While Bitcoin has shown resilience throughout this cycle, the combination of distribution signals and mounting uncertainty makes the coming days crucial. If BTC fails to hold its current support, the door could open to lower levels, testing investor conviction. The spotlight is now on whether demand can match the renewed selling from long-term holders and stabilize the market. Bitcoin LTH Aging Velocity Signal Market Shift According to Adler, the LTH Aging Velocity (30-day) offers valuable insight into the current Bitcoin market structure. This metric measures the change in the long-term holder (LTH) supply share over a 30-day period, effectively showing the momentum of supply aging among experienced holders. When the metric is above 0, more coins are maturing into long-term supply, indicating accumulation. When it is below 0, the LTH share is decreasing, signaling distribution. Zero crossings often mark regime changes, and the last one occurred on July 16th at $118,000. Currently, the metric sits at -1.2%, which means LTH supply is decreasing while the share of young short-term holder (STH) supply is growing. This reflects an active redistribution, with long-term holders selling coins to newer participants as the price rises. Adler highlights that the last LTH accumulation peak occurred when Bitcoin traded between $100,000–$108,000, a range that provided the foundation for the most recent rally. Judging by historical patterns, another 2% of LTH supply could be distributed in the near term—equivalent to roughly 300,000 BTC. This suggests that while Bitcoin still holds strong above the $110,000 level, selling pressure from long-term holders remains an important factor. If demand from ETFs and institutions does not keep pace, the market could face renewed downward pressure before stabilizing. For now, this shift in aging velocity underscores that the balance of power is tilting, with long-term holders gradually passing supply to new players. Price Analysis: Consolidation Holds, Resistance Ahead Bitcoin’s 8-hour chart shows the price trading at $111,711, consolidating just above the $111K level after weeks of volatility. The chart highlights a recovery attempt from late August’s dip near $108K, but BTC has yet to reclaim stronger resistance zones. The moving averages show mixed signals: the 50 SMA (blue) remains below the 100 SMA (green) and 200 SMA (red), indicating bearish momentum still dominates the mid-term. Price action is currently hovering between the 50 SMA at $111K and the 100 SMA at $114K, which forms an immediate resistance zone. A decisive break above $114K could open the door to $118K, but failure to do so may result in another retest of $110K or even $108K. Market structure remains choppy, with lower highs forming since the $124K peak in mid-August. This suggests selling pressure persists as bulls struggle to regain control. On the downside, strong support lies near the $108K region, which has held multiple times. Losing this level would increase the risk of a deeper pullback toward $105K. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView -
El Salvador marks four years since adopting BTC in its financial system
um tópico no fórum postou Redator Radar do Mercado
As Bitcoin continues to search for direction, El Salvador has added another 21 BTC to its holdings, worth roughly $2.3 million. The purchase commemorates the fourth anniversary of the country's Bitcoin Law, which established the cryptocurrency as official legal tender back in 2021. "We will buy one #Bitcoin every day until Bitcoin becomes unaffordable with fiat currencies," President Nayib Bukele wrote on Sunday. This step once again highlights the visionary—but also high-risk—strategy of President Nayib Bukele, who has bet on Bitcoin as a tool for modernizing the economy and attracting investment. Despite enthusiasm from Salvadoran authorities, experts and international financial institutions continue to express concerns about the country's financial resilience and the risks associated with crypto volatility. Supporters of the initiative point to positive effects such as increased digital literacy and lower remittance costs, while critics focus on the lack of transparency in Bitcoin operations and the potential for cryptocurrencies to be used for illicit purposes. Against a backdrop of stagnating inflows into BTC and ETH ETFs, El Salvador's actions can be seen as an attempt to demonstrate confidence in the long-term potential of digital assets and to support Bitcoin's price. However, the overall impact of such purchases on the global crypto market remains marginal. According to the country's National Bitcoin Office, El Salvador now holds about 6,313 BTC—worth around $701.8 million at current market prices—including its most recent acquisition. The country's latest Bitcoin purchase came about a week after its bitcoin office distributed assets across 14 addresses as an added safeguard against potential quantum threats. It is also worth noting that last month, El Salvador's legislature adopted a law allowing major financial institutions to receive licenses to offer services denominated in Bitcoin and other digital assets to qualified investors. This step is a logical continuation of President Bukele's push to integrate cryptocurrencies into the national economy, and aims to attract capital and expertise from more developed financial centers. In essence, the new law creates a regulatory sandbox for crypto innovation, allowing sophisticated investors to interact with digital assets in a controlled and transparent environment. The licensing of major financial institutions is, in turn, expected to boost trust in El Salvador's crypto sector and reduce risks of fraud and manipulation. Still, the success of this initiative depends on several factors, including the effectiveness of regulatory oversight, the willingness of international institutions to cooperate, and the further development of the nation's crypto infrastructure. Trading recommendations: As for the technical outlook on Bitcoin, buyers are currently targeting a return to $111,600, which would open a direct path to $113,200 and then to $115,600. The most distant target is the high near $118,600; breaking above this level would confirm renewed bull market strength. On declines, buyers are expected near $109,700. A move below this area could quickly send BTC toward $108,200, with $106,700 as the deepest support. For Ethereum, holding above $4,383 opens a clear path to $4,499. The most distant upside target is the high at $4,601, a breakout above which would signal renewed bullish momentum and growing buyer interest. On pullbacks, buyers are expected at $4,227. Moving below this area could send ETH toward $4,081, with $3,999 as the most distant target. What we see on the chart: - Red lines indicate support and resistance levels, where a pause or a sharp price move is currently expected; - Green lines represent the 50-day moving average; - Blue lines represent the 100-day moving average; - Light green lines show the 200-day moving average. A price crossover or test of these moving averages typically acts as either a brake or a catalyst for market momentum. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com -
How have interest rates expectations changed after the NFP report?
um tópico no fórum postou Redator Radar do Mercado
Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 70 bps (91% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting; the rest for a 50 bps cut) ECB: 8 bps (99% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 12 bps (98% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 42 bps (89% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) RBA: 30 bps (81% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)RBNZ: 38 bps (91% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) SNB: 7 bps (91% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) Rate hikes by year-end BoJ: 12 bps (97% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)The biggest changes in interest rates expectations happened on Friday as we got the US and Canadian jobs data. Both were softer than expected although the Canadian one was worse. The market quickly priced in a third cut for the Fed by year-end (70 bps) and a second rate cut for the BoC (42 bps). Moreover, given some expectations of the Fed being potentially late, the market started to price in also some chances of a 50 bps cut in September. Much like the insurance cut we got in 2024. That might depend on the US CPI report on Thursday though. Soft data could give the Fed more conviction to start with a 50 bps cut and then see how things evolve in the next months. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com. -
Forex forecast 08/09/2025: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, USDX and Bitcoin
um tópico no fórum postou Redator Radar do Mercado
We introduce you to the daily updated section of Forex analytics where you will find reviews from forex experts, up-to-date monitoring of financial information as well as online forecasts of exchange rates of the US dollar, euro, ruble, bitcoin, and other currencies for today, tomorrow and this trading week.Useful links: My other articles are available in this section InstaForex course for beginners Popular Analytics Open trading account Important: The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader. #instaforex #analysis #sebastianseliga The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com -
German industrial production rose in July – the euro reacted
um tópico no fórum postou Redator Radar do Mercado
The euro posted a modest gain on news that industrial production in Germany rose more than expected in July, offering some hope that the country's key sector may be stabilizing and could soon overcome its prolonged downturn. According to Destatis, output increased by 1.3% compared to the previous month, driven by growth in machinery and equipment production. This was the first increase since March. This modest recovery, however, should not be viewed as a signal of full recovery. Germany's economic indicators, along with those of the eurozone, remain fragile, weighed down by geopolitical risks and structural problems. Nonetheless, the positive surprise from Germany serves as a beacon pointing to potential resilience in German industry, which has traditionally been the engine of the European economy. The stronger-than-expected rise in industrial production may be explained by several factors. First, the low base effect may have made even small improvements appear significant after a long period of decline. Second, government stimulus and support measures aimed at reviving the economy may have played a role. Third, rising demand for German goods from certain countries or sectors may also have contributed to the recovery. Despite the positive trend, caution remains necessary. The global economy is still unstable, trade conflicts persist, and the energy crisis continues to pressure European businesses. The statistics office also reported that the previous month's decline was revised to just 0.1% from the initially reported 1.9%, noting that the change was mainly due to corrected data later provided by a major automaker. The data also point to a good start to the third quarter for manufacturers, whose weakness was a major factor behind the contraction of Europe's largest economy in the previous period. From April to June, GDP contracted by 0.3%. However, unlike today's figures, last Friday's data showed an unexpected drop in industrial orders in July, undermining optimism that the sector could quickly emerge from its three-year recession. As for the current technical picture of EUR/USD, buyers now need to break above 1.1740. Only this will allow a move toward testing 1.1781. From there, the pair could climb to 1.1825, though achieving this without support from major players will be difficult. The ultimate target is the 1.1875 high. In case of a decline, I expect strong buying interest only around 1.1705. If no buyers appear there, it would be better to wait for a test of the 1.1660 low or to open long positions from 1.1630. As for the current technical picture of GBP/USD, pound buyers need to break through the nearest resistance at 1.3520. Only this will allow targeting 1.3550, above which further progress will be difficult. The ultimate target is the 1.3590 level. In case of a decline, the bears will attempt to regain control around 1.3485. If successful, a break of this range would deal a serious blow to the bulls and push GBP/USD toward 1.3450, with prospects of reaching 1.3415. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com -
Is the bottom finally in? Bulls surely believe so. BTC ▲0.82% is stabilizing above $111,000, trading near $111,300 on September 8 as the crypto market shows signs of steady recovery. Most sectors are in the green: the AI and big data token market rose around 3%, while meme coins posted stronger gains. DOGE ▲7.55% climbed back to $0.23, and smaller crypto such as USELESS rallied about 30% over the past three days. Additional momentum comes from the first Dogecoin ETF, set to launch this week, and the introduction of Dogecoin Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs). Could be DOGE the best crypto to buy right now? DogecoinPriceMarket CapDOGE$35.25B24h7d30d1yAll time EXPLORE: 9+ Best High-Risk, High-Reward Crypto to Buy in 2025 Dogecoin ETF Gains Attention as Investors Seek the Best Crypto to Buy The upcoming Dogecoin ETF is expected to expand access for institutional and retail investors, potentially improving liquidity and bringing new participation into the meme coin space. Together with DATs, this marks a notable step for DOGE’s integration into more traditional financial products. Many traders now view it as one of the leading candidates in the search for the best crypto to buy during this rebound. Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $246 million in inflows last week, with BlackRock’s IBIT contributing $434 million and Grayscale’s Bitcoin Mini Trust adding $33 million, while Ark and Bitwise saw outflows. Total Bitcoin ETF holdings now stand at about $144 billion, or 6.48% of Bitcoin’s market value. Ethereum spot ETFs, in contrast, posted about $788 million in outflows. Whale selling, which reached 112,000–115,000 BTC (around $12.7B) last month, has slowed to about 38,000 BTC weekly in early September. Institutional buying is helping stabilize the market, and with meme and AI sectors both turning positive, Bitcoin remains a core choice while DOGE emerges as a high-interest option to watch. 1 hour ago Singapore Denies Do Kwon’s $14M Refund Demand For ‘Stolen’ Penthouse By Fatima Terraform Labs co-founder Do Kwon just lost a $14M court battle over a failed Singapore penthouse deal, as global legal cases mount following the Terra-Luna collapse. The High Court dismissed his claim, ruling that the developer was within its rights to keep the deposit after the purchase fell through. The upshot is: Do Kwon is finally on trial. 135 years down to potentially 12 years. The judge wants to give him 25. Despite the judge ruling against him, he’ll get a lesser sentence than SBF. The property in question, a 7,600-square-foot Orchard Road duplex valued at S$38.8M, was intended to be Kwon’s showcase asset before the 2022 TerraUSD and Luna collapse, which wiped more than $40Bn in investor wealth. Read The Full Article Here The post [LIVE] Crypto News Today, September 8 – Bitcoin Holds $111K While Dogecoin ETF Hype Lifts Meme Coins: Best Crypto to Buy? appeared first on 99Bitcoins.