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The Tron price has continued on its recovery path since reaching a bottom in mid-March, steadily climbing almost every week. Mirroring the improving crypto market sentiment, the price of TRX maintained a level of stability in its bullish momentum throughout the month of May as it slowly ascended to a local high above $0.28. However, the slow-and-steady growth of the cryptocurrency was met with a significant obstacle over the past week, reflecting what seems to be a return of bearish sentiment in the altcoin market. Here’s a look at the possible reason why the Tron price might be struggling at the moment. Tron Sellers Gain Traction: Spot CVD Data In a Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, on-chain analyst Burak Kesmeci published data from his analysis, pegging Tron’s dip in value to as high as 5.48% in 48 hours. Kesmeci’s analysis revolved around the Spot Taker CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta, 90-Day) metric, which tracks by volume the net difference between market buys (Taker Buy) and market sells (Taker Sell) over a period of 90 days. According to the crypto pundit, a positive and rising value of the CVD metric indicates a higher Taker Buy volume and the dominance of buyers in the market. On the flip side, a negative or dropping value of the on-chain indicator reflects a higher Taker Sell volume and suggests that sellers are overwhelming the market. Data from Kesmeci’s publication shows how the market devolved from being dominated by the buyers to being bearish. The chart below shows a transition from green bars (Taker Buy Dominant) to red bars (Taker Sell Dominant). The shift from buys to sells became evident from around May 22nd and has since intensified, leading to a steady decline in the price of Tron. However, the Cumulative Volume Delta (marked in gray) has shown neutral on-chain action over the last few days. Caution In The Market Warranted Kesmeci, in his conclusion, stated that if this negative CVD trend were to continue, it could signal further correction in Tron’s price. The relatively neutral state of current on-chain activity, though, suggests that investors’ uncertainty about the future trajectory of the cryptocurrency. However, investors should still pay rapt attention as a further increase in sell pressure could heighten volatility and, consequently, lead to liquidations. As of press time, Tron trades at $0.2656, reflecting a price rise of approximately 1% in 24 hours. According to CoinGecko data, the TRX token is down by more than 1% in the past seven days.

Bitcoin’s price action has drawn a sharp dividing line between long-term bullish expectations and short-term reality. After peaking above $111,000 in May, the Bitcoin price has entered a retracement phase and is now trading below $105,000. While some interpret the current downturn as a sign of a weakening trend, others see it as a textbook bullish correction. Among them is crypto analyst MasterAnanda, whose latest chart suggests that Bitcoin is structurally strong enough to reach new highs, but it might fall short of the speculated $200,000 price target this cycle. MasterAnanda Predicts Higher Low And $137,000 Target In his TradingView post, MasterAnanda stated clearly that Bitcoin is still in a bullish structure, but he believes a $200,000 peak is out of reach for this cycle. Instead, he identified $137,000 as the more realistic upside target when Bitcoin finally rebounds from the ongoing correction. According to the analyst, the formation of a higher low on the larger time frame will be an important confirmation that Bitcoin’s macro uptrend remains intact. He outlined $88,888.88 as an ideal retracement level to make this perfect higher low, because it aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci level and comes in well above the prior bottom at $74,500 on April 7. Despite the current sell-off, MasterAnanda argues that the broader trend is healthy. “Bitcoin will never ever trade below $80,000 in its history again,” he declared, ruling out any deep reversal below the prior low. On the other hand, the analyst also noted that if Bitcoin holds above $100,000 to $102,000, this retracement would be considered minor, with price action still classified as bullish continuation rather than a breakdown. If Bitcoin bulls manage to keep prices trading above that area, it would suggest the current move is nothing more than a short-term dip. When that moment arrives, the bias will shift from short to long, and a rally to $137,000. However, a clean break below the $100,000 price level would mark a significant shift in how long Bitcoin reaches new highs. Chart From TradingView: MasterAnanda RLinda Echoes $101,000 Support For Bitcoin Adding to the analysis, another trader, RLinda, shared a 4-hour chart perspective showing how Bitcoin is currently in a fragile recovery path. She agrees that Bitcoin is still operating within a bullish context, but flagged the $102,000 and $101,400 zones as vital structural supports. Her chart suggests that the false breakout at the key $110,000 resistance level is the end of the recent rally leg, and the current decline could be a liquidity-driven correction rather than a complete reversal of the bullish trend. Furthermore, RLinda’s analysis shows that Bitcoin has exited its upward channel. The outcome, she said, will depend heavily on whether support levels at $102,000 and $101,400 can hold. A bounce from these levels could lead to a retest of the $106,000 to $108,000 resistance zone, where market direction may become clearer. If bulls fail to hold $101,000, it could invite a more dramatic sell-off that pushes the Bitcoin price toward a local bottom or even deeper. Chart Image From TradingView: RLinda Together, both analysts agree on one thing: Bitcoin’s current correction is not yet a full collapse. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $104,290, up by 0.5% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Over the weekend, Bitcoin’s price extended its disappointing performance, falling to around $103,000 in the early hours of Saturday, May 31st. While the premier cryptocurrency seems to have recovered fine in the past day, its price is still more than 6% away from the recently achieved all-time high of $111,814. Interestingly, the latest on-chain data suggests that the Bitcoin price could resume its upward trajectory anytime from now. Mass Long Liquidations Could Mean Sustained Upward Trend For BTC In a Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, on-chain analyst Burak Kesmeci shared that the Bitcoin market witnessed its third-largest long liquidation in the month of May. Data from CryptoQuant shows that $202 million in BTC long positions were liquidated on the Binance derivatives exchange on Friday, May 30th. As highlighted by Kesmeci, leveraged trading and speculative pressure ramped up on the world’s largest crypto exchange as the price of Bitcoin rallied from around $94,000 to a new record high above $111,000. These long liquidations typically occur when derivatives traders are forced to close their positions as prices move sharply against them, leading to automatic sell-offs that can further trigger volatility in both directions. The latest event — involving $202 million worth of BTC long positions — is the third-largest in the past month, trailing only two larger liquidations in May: $211 million on May 12 and $277 million on May 23. This series of high-value liquidations reflects the increased speculative activity in the Bitcoin market over the past few weeks. While the investors who suffered this liquidation may feel hard done by the market, these mass liquidations could be positive for the flagship cryptocurrency — a healthy reset for what is starting to feel like an overheated market. By removing excessive leverage, the Bitcoin market can reestablish a more stable foundation for price discovery and a continued upward trend. Bitcoin Funding Rates Still Very Low: Analyst According to another on-chain analyst with the pseudonym Darkfost, the Bitcoin funding rates are still at extremely low levels. This trend signals the unwillingness and hesitation of traders to open new long positions, read the post on X. Darkfost added: Typically, when Bitcoin breaks above its previous all-time high, we tend to see a surge in funding rates, signaling that euphoria and risk appetite are back. But that’s not what we’re seeing right now, investors need more clarity before jumping in with conviction. The on-chain analyst stated that this cautious stance of investors could be positive for the Bitcoin price and the upward trend. Moreover, the lack of euphoria reflects a market that is yet to be overheated, with room for further upside growth. As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $ 104,897, reflecting a mere 0.2% increase in the past 24 hours. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sharpe Ratio Says It’s Time For ‘Cautious Optimism’ — Further Upside Growth Incoming?

Solana (SOL) has remained under the radar in recent weeks, with market attention primarily centered on Bitcoin and Ethereum. While the broader crypto market digests recent volatility, SOL has been quietly consolidating just below key resistance. This silence, however, might not last much longer. Top analysts are starting to turn their focus back to Solana, suggesting that a powerful move could be brewing. According to analyst Bluntz, the recent price action in SOL is showing promising signs. He notes that after sweeping the lows, Solana is now working on a reclaim of support — a classic bottoming pattern that often precedes a strong rebound. Although it’s still early days, this reaction could lay the foundation for a sharp rally if SOL manages to break back above the $160–$165 range. The sentiment echoes a broader belief among market watchers that Solana could become a major leader in the next leg of the altseason, especially if Ethereum breaks out from its current resistance. As bullish structure builds and technical indicators begin to align, the setup for SOL appears to be quietly strengthening, making it a key altcoin to watch in the coming weeks. Solana Setup For Breakout Remains Strong Solana (SOL) has been on a consolidation path over the past few weeks, struggling to reclaim the $180 resistance level. After peaking in early May, SOL has retraced steadily, now trading around the $150 range as it searches for renewed demand. This retracement aligns with a broader market pullback, as global tensions — especially surrounding US–China tariffs and rising interest rates — inject volatility and caution into financial markets. Despite the current slowdown, analysts remain optimistic about Solana’s medium-term outlook. Top trader Bluntz recently shared that SOL’s reaction after taking the lows is promising. According to him, the altcoin is now working on a reclaim of support, which could be the precursor to an aggressive rally. The key lies in whether Solana can push back above the $180 zone — an area of heavy supply that has repeatedly rejected bullish momentum. If SOL does manage to flip this level into support, the price structure suggests there’s ample room for a sharp breakout. The setup aligns well with rising calls for an altseason, particularly if Bitcoin dominance continues to roll over and Ethereum confirms a breakout above its multi-month resistance. In this scenario, Solana could emerge as one of the leading assets in the next crypto leg up, given its strong developer ecosystem, scalability, and growing DeFi sector. While current price action remains neutral to slightly bearish, a reclaim of $180 would likely flip sentiment quickly and attract fresh capital. As market focus shifts from major caps like BTC and ETH, SOL could be poised to capture the spotlight — and potentially lead the next altcoin rally. SOL Tests Key Support As Price Action Stalls Below $160 Solana (SOL) is currently trading at $154.47 after losing the $160 support, facing continued pressure following its rejection from the $180 resistance level earlier in May. The chart shows that SOL is now hovering just below the 34-day EMA and the 50-day SMA, indicating a breakdown in short-term bullish momentum. Volume has also decreased, signaling hesitation from both buyers and sellers amid broader market uncertainty. The 200-day moving average at $179.73 remains the major resistance level to reclaim in order to resume a bullish structure. Meanwhile, the zone between $150 and $156 is now acting as a critical demand area. A sustained close below $150 could open the door for deeper corrections, possibly toward the $140-$130 range, which aligns with previous consolidation levels in April. Despite the current weakness, the longer-term trend remains neutral-to-bullish as long as Solana holds above the 100-day SMA around $144.58. If SOL can consolidate and reclaim the $160–$165 region, it could trigger renewed upside momentum and challenge the $180 level once again. Analysts remain cautiously optimistic, with some expecting a rebound if market conditions stabilize and altseason momentum picks up in the coming weeks. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

Ethereum is holding strong above the $2,500 level, showing resilience as the broader crypto market undergoes a healthy pullback. Despite recent volatility, ETH continues to trade within a bullish structure, fueling optimism that it could lead the next leg of the market’s rally. Analysts are closely watching Ethereum’s price action, calling for a potential breakout that might set the tone for an anticipated altseason. Top analyst Ted Pillows shared key insights, noting that Ethereum is down just 10% from its local highs, yet up nearly 50% this month alone. This strong monthly performance is a clear indication that Ethereum remains in an uptrend, even as short-term corrections occur. According to Pillows, this kind of price behavior—holding steady while the market resets—often precedes aggressive moves, particularly if Ethereum can reclaim higher resistance levels in the coming days. With Bitcoin consolidating below its all-time highs and market participants eyeing renewed capital rotation into altcoins, Ethereum is well-positioned to act as a catalyst. A decisive move above $2,700 could validate the bullish outlook and trigger broader momentum across the altcoin market. For now, Ethereum’s relative strength continues to stand out amid market uncertainty. Ethereum Uptrend Holds Firm Despite Global Tensions Ethereum is facing a pivotal test as it continues to trade within a tight range since May 10th, hovering between key support and resistance zones. While macroeconomic uncertainty weighs heavily on traditional markets—driven by rising US Treasury yields and geopolitical tensions—Ethereum has shown impressive resilience. Bulls remain confident that ETH has room to push higher, supported by strong fundamentals and improving investor sentiment. Pillows highlights that despite a recent 10% pullback from local highs, Ethereum is still up nearly 50% this month. This sharp monthly gain clearly indicates that ETH remains in a strong uptrend, even as volatility tests short-term conviction. The fact that ETH has maintained higher lows throughout this range-bound structure reinforces the idea of accumulation, not distribution. Beyond price action, on-chain and institutional signals point toward sustained demand. ETF inflows for Ethereum have begun to pick up, albeit at a slower pace than Bitcoin’s. However, due to Ethereum’s smaller market cap, these flows have a more pronounced impact. Additionally, multiple firms are reportedly raising over $1 billion to acquire ETH, signaling long-term confidence in the asset’s role in the evolving digital economy. Pillows sees the stage set for Ethereum’s next major leg up. If the $2,700–$2,850 resistance zone is broken with conviction, it could trigger a strong rally that positions ETH as a leader in a potential altseason. For now, Ethereum’s steady hand in turbulent times is a bullish signal in itself. Ethereum Weekly Chart Holds Firm Ethereum is showing resilience on the weekly chart, trading at $2,509 after reaching a high of $2,789 earlier in the week. While the price has pulled back slightly, it remains firmly above the 200-week SMA ($2,452) and the 34-week EMA ($2,498), which is a strong sign of underlying bullish structure. This area is now acting as solid support after ETH’s 50% rally off the April lows. What’s technically notable is that ETH is challenging the underside of the 100-week and 50-week SMAs, both of which have previously acted as resistance throughout this cycle. A close above $2,725 would mark a significant shift in trend, confirming bullish continuation and opening the door for a test of the $3,000–$3,200 zone. Volume has slightly decreased from the breakout candle three weeks ago, suggesting consolidation rather than weakness. Bulls want to see ETH reclaim the $2,725 level with conviction to spark momentum. Until then, the current structure favors a slow grind higher unless macro volatility accelerates. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

Meme coins are back in full force, and you need to act now if you don’t want to miss out. As of May 30, 2025, the meme coin market capitalization is $68.4 billion, and we are preparing to surpass $100 billion this cycle. New projects are raising millions in days, OG’s coins are waking up, and presales are filling up fast. So, what’s to ape before everybody else on crypto Twitter goes in? We’ve got five of the best projects that you can invest in. From OG’s to the newest and hottest presales on the market. Dogecoin (DOGE) – The Father of All Meme Coins Well, what did you expect? DOGE is the blueprint of meme coins. Many made generational wealth with this one early on. Nevertheless, this doesn’t mean you cannot make mind blowing gains again. Right now, it is trading around $0.193, but it feels like it is preparing to attack the old ATH at $0.73 from 2021. JUST IN: $DOGE whale activity has increased by 700% in the last 48 hours. MASSIVE PUMP INCOMING?! pic.twitter.com/1xC7kSbth3 — CEO (@Investments_CEO) May 20, 2025 DISCOVER: Best Meme Coin ICOs to Invest in May 2025 And you all know about Elon, who managed to create the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). For some reason, to be supported by the richest person on earth is a big deal. Once meme season kicks in hard, DOGE will break through every barrier for sure and will lead the parade. Shiba Inu (SHIB) – The People’s Meme Coins Also started as a joke and a meme, but a strong community, crazy dev activity, and DeFi features turned it into a whole ecosystem. After the big run in 2021, it cooled off for a while, consolidating and preparing to lift off. Currently trading at $0.00001282 and market capitalization of $7.4 billion definitely has the potential to get close to DOGE. $SHIB is still looking bullish here! SEND IT pic.twitter.com/QVWUwLyPL1 — Shib Spain (@ShibSpain) May 31, 2025 DISCOVER: Top Solana Meme Coins to Buy in May 2025 Prepare and get comfy because when SHIB starts to run, you are just going to watch and eat popcorn. You can hear more about SHIB here. MIND of Pepe (MIND) – AI x Meme Meta Ruling the Crypto Space When you combine two of the most successful narratives in crypto, you can get nothing but success. MIND is combining artificial intelligence with meme culture. Inspired by Pepe the Frog, this project is building an AI agent that learns and evolves. Ultimately, it will create tokens, and holders will have the information before everybody else. With shy of $12 million raised and under 2 days left on the horizon, this is the second-best place to enter. Amazing 202% APY is offered, which can boost the earnings of the holders. SOLAXY (SOLX) – Solana’s First Layer 2 Being early in a first mover is always a recipe for success. It is the first Layer 2 project on Solana, combining meme coin energy with actual crypto utility. This combination can send every chart into the stratosphere. Who doesn’t want to see a green dildo early morning ON THE CHARTS…. on the charts guys. They have raised more than $42 million so far, and the final countdown is ticking. 15 days left until the presale is over. The power of $SOLX is increasing! 42M Raised! pic.twitter.com/oolGVbPHvH — SOLAXY (@SOLAXYTOKEN) May 29, 2025 SOLX is aiming to solve Solana’s pains. In times of high traffic, Solana experiences congestion, failed transactions, and even downtime. SOLX is fixing all this through different approaches. One of those approaches is taking finalization off-chain, which will ease the work of the chain. Furthermore, they have a staking incentive with 94% APY All this looks very appealing to every degen trader out there. Get locked and loaded and wait for the release. BTCBULL – Stake Memes, Earn Bitcoin Last but not least is this gem in the crown. Stake BTCBULL and earn Bitcoin. Something that has never happened so far with any project. So far, they have raised over $6.6 million, and right now you can join for $0.00254 per coin before the next step is over. First it was disbelief. Now it's just distance. pic.twitter.com/sL9cp9eWvy — BTCBULL_TOKEN (@BTCBULL_TOKEN) May 28, 2025 They’ve built a system where BTCBULL tokens are burned or airdropped when BTC hits price milestones – $150k, $175k, $200k, up to $250k. Be sure to enter before this train is gone. One of the easiest ways to earn Bitcoin currently. DISCOVER: Next 1000X Crypto: 10+ Crypto Tokens That Can Hit 1000x in 2025 Join The 99Bitcoins News Discord Here For The Latest Market Updates Key Takeaways Meme coin season heating up. What are the best OG meme coins on the market? Best crypto to buy and hottest presales currently. The post Top 5 Meme Coins You Do Not Want to Miss in June appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

Over the past week, the Tron (TRX) market recorded a choppy price action, eventually resulting in a 2.10% price decline. Amidst the crypto market euphoria seen in the past two months, TRX has maintained a steady price growth reporting percentage increase of 17.39% since the beginning of April. Interestingly, prominent crypto analyst Burak Kesmeci has shared an intriguing market insight that indicates TRX is likely to remain on the uptrend for the foreseeable future. TRX Futures Market Signals Good Accumulation Opportunity In an X post on May 30, Burak Kesmeci postulated that TRX remains in a prime position for further price gains based on developments in futures retail activity. Using data from CryptoQuant, the analyst explains that TRX previously reached a market of $0.45 in December 2024 which aligned with a period of peak retail speculation as indicated by the cluster of red dots on the chart. During this period, many traders likely leveraged long, trading the rally in anticipation of a sustained price uptrend. However, TRX prices soon crashed to $0.21 during a broader market correction that lasted for the majority of the first trimester of 2025. This period is marked by a sparse amount of gray dots suggesting a neutral retail participation in the futures market. Amidst resumed crypto bull market rebound, TRX prices have risen to around $0.27. However, retail activity has remained neutral with no significant uptick in speculation or emergence of a “mad crowd” as seen in December 2024. According to Burak Kesmeci, these findings indicate there is significant potential for an upswing in the TRX market as retail futures activity is far from overheated. However, there is a need for macroeconomic and geopolitical tensions to subside before these projected gains can occur. Recently, the crypto market produced a negative reaction to reports of the US and China failing to find a common ground in an ongoing trade talk amidst a 90-day truce before both countries. TRX Price Prediction At the time of writing, TRX trades at $0.26 reflecting a 2.87% decline in the past day. Meanwhile, the token’s daily trading volume is valued at $806.98 million. According to data from CoinCodex, TRX investors are strongly bullish despite recent losses as evidenced by the Fear & Greed Index of 60. Coincodex analysts project TRX to soon rediscover its bullish form with forecasted price targets of $0.32 and $0.29 in the next five and thirty days respectively. In addition, they paint a positive long-term outlook with a price target of $0.51 in six months.

Although the past 24 hours have been characterized by heavy selloffs, Bitcoin is still currently holding above the $100,000 level, trading around $103,700 as of the time of writing. Notably, signs of exhaustion are also beginning to surface for Bitcoin, especially in the past 48 hours. While long-term indicators suggest a bullish continuation for the Bitcoin price, short-term models indicate a breakdown of bullish strength, particularly as the cryptocurrency approaches the critical $100,000 support zone. This sentiment is relayed by popular crypto analyst Willy Woo, who shared the good and bad news based on Bitcoin’s current technicals. Good News: A Bullish Long-Term Signal Still Intact According to Woo, one of the strongest long-term signals, the Bitcoin Risk Signal, is currently trending downwards. This drop indicates that buy-side liquidity is currently dominant in the long-term environment, setting the stage for another strong leg upward. The lower the risk reading, the safer it is to hold or accumulate Bitcoin, and this signal’s current decline shows a relatively low-risk environment for long-term investors. Woo noted that this long-term setup is intact, and with Bitcoin trading well above the psychological six-figure mark, the momentum is still in favor of the bulls in the long term. At the time of writing, the local risk model, as shown in the chart below, is currently in the mid-range, having declined from peak levels in early 2025, and is expected to continue trending downwards. In another analysis, Willy Woo noted the next significant move could push it above $114,000 and trigger liquidations of short positions. Bad News For Bitcoin Price Although the long-term picture is still favorable, the short-term models, including the Speculation and SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) metrics, are flashing caution. Using this indicator, Woo noted that the strength of the rally from $75,000 to $112,000 has started to weaken, especially with flat capital inflow in the past three days. Keeping this in mind, Bitcoin’s price action this week is critical. “If we do not get follow through, then we will be up for another consolidation period,” the analyst said. If spot buying fails to pick up strongly in the coming week, which is the first week of June, especially with U.S. markets reopening after a long weekend, there will be a chance for a bearish pivot. The good and bad news can be summed up as follows: if buying pressure opens up quickly, Bitcoin could break above $114,000 and head toward the next major liquidity zone between $118,000 and $120,000. Failure to push higher could confirm bearish divergences and set the stage for another round of consolidation. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at 103,700, down by 1.5% and 3.9% in the past 24 hours and seven days, respectively. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Popular crypto analyst with X username CasiTrades has shared an interesting technical analysis on the XRP market that postulates a potential short-term price gain. Notably, XRP prices have dipped by over 7% in the past week amidst a general crypto price correction. However, CasiTrades predicts there may be a window for quick price relief provided a specific support level remains valid. Scalp Setup Tips XRP For $2.25 Price Target In an X post on May 30, CasiTrades outlines a XRP trade set up that presents a potentially lucrative short-term trading opportunity. Notably, the analyst explains that XRP decline to its 0.118 Fibonacci retracement level at $2.196 has pushed into a familiar price region for short-term scalp trades. Based on CasiTrades’ analysis, the perfect entry zone for many investors lied at $2.20, with a price target of $2.253 at the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level acting as the take-profit zone. The analyst explains that this is scalp setup that operates on the high chance of securing quick price relief. Therefore, a price surge to $2.253 is not indicative of impending price reversal. However, in the presence of strong bullish momentum, XRP is well-poised to move beyond $2.253 with potential targets set at $2.333, $2.395 and $2.456. Notably, CasiTrades has identified the stop-loss for this trade set-up at $2.13. The analyst explains that market bulls must prevent a decisive price fall below this level as it would neutralize the validity of the entire scalp trade setup. In such a negative scenario, the altcoin is likely to experience further price decline with the next major support set around $1.77. XRP Price Overview At press time, XRP trades at $2.14 following a significant 4.86% decline in the past one day and 3.01% in the past thirty days. Meanwhile, the asset’s daily trading volume has increased by 57.32% suggesting a surge in selling pressure in relation to the ongoing price crash. Based on its daily trading chart, XRP lies below its 200-day moving average indicating there is strong potential for the altcoin to maintain a downward trajectory and invalidate CasiTrades’ scalp relief projection. Meanwhile, the token’s Relative Strength Index currently stands at 36.47 and is headed for the oversold region which could potentially trigger a price rebound to around $2.30. With a market cap of $125.04 billion, XRP continues to rank as the fourth-largest cryptocurrency. Interestingly, market analyst with X username Crypto V backs the altcoin’s bullish potential projecting a market cap of $790 billion before 2025 runs out. Featured image from Pexels, chart from Tradingview

US President Donald Trump’s brief post on Truth Social on May 29 sparked a quick burst of excitement among crypto traders. Based on reports, some users saw a hidden reference to the Pepe meme coin (PEPE). In the next few hours, PEPE shot up by 5% but then fell back by 15%. Traders are now watching to see if this social push can do what Elon Musk once did for Dogecoin. Pepe Price Moves According to market data, PEPE’s price hit its upper resistance after the Trump post. A short surge brought a 5% gain. Then profit-taking and wider market pressure drove an 18% correction. The flip in momentum shows how fast things can change in meme-coin land. A small tweet or post can send prices soaring, but it only takes a bit of selling to push them down again. Wait, what Trump just dropped a $PEPE pic on Truth Social Is this a secret crypto endorsement or just trolling the internet? Either way the $PEPE rocket might just have a new co-pilot. What’s next a $PEPE rally or a Twitter melt down Stay tuned pic.twitter.com/cu8RF7D55b — Josh Mair (@WizzOfCrypto) May 29, 2025 On Drama & Speculation Trump’s message saying he’s “on a mission from God” makes him sound like he has a special purpose, not just a political goal. The dark street scene and the words “nothing can stop what is coming” hint that something big is coming, even if he doesn’t explain it. This kind of talk can fire up his most loyal supporters – especially PEPE aficionados – because it feels dramatic and urgent. Chart Patterns In Focus Based on reports from chart watchers, PEPE appears to be forming a cup-and-handle pattern that began about five months ago. If the coin breaks above the handle, some say it could reach $0.000026—double its current level. Right now, the MACD line sits below the signal line after a recent death cross, hinting at a near-term downtrend. The RSI has dipped toward 52 and may cross below it soon, which could keep sellers in control. The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level sits at $0.00001 and could act as a bounce point. If that level gives way, traders will look at $0.000008 as the next support. Tariff Ruling Adds Pressure Based on US Court of International Trade filings, the court reversed Trump’s tariff suspensions right around the same time that PEPE spiked. That move seems to have dampened the market’s risk-on mood. For many traders, broader trade news can be a bigger factor than any single tweet. If traders worry about tariffs and slower growth, they often sell off riskier assets like meme coins. That mix of social hype and market worry helped push PEPE down after its brief rally. Looking Ahead For Traders Based on this mix of social buzz and chart signals, it’ll take more than a hint in a post to keep PEPE climbing. If the coin can break above its current resistance by mid-June, $0.000026 seems to be the main target. But a falling MACD and RSI point toward more selling pressure first. Traders should watch the 0.618 level at $0.00001 for signs of a bounce. If that level breaks, they’ll likely aim for $0.000008 next. Featured image from Inverse, chart from TradingView

XRP is once again under the spotlight as its price action shows signs of weakening across multiple timeframes. After a brief period of relative stability, recent breakdowns on the daily and intraday charts suggest a shift in market momentum that traders can’t ignore. As bearish pressure mounts and critical support levels begin to falter, XRP’s next move has become a major topic – will it find its footing soon, or is a deeper correction on the horizon? The XRP Key Bullish Divergence In an X update, prominent crypto analyst Gowanus Monster highlighted a critical technical development for XRP. According to his analysis, the token has completed a bearish Descending Triangle formation across multiple timeframes, a classic pattern that often signals continuation to the downside. Based on the measured move from this structure, the projected target is around $1.90, suggesting a potentially significant retracement if bearish momentum continues to build. Zooming out to the weekly chart, the pattern is beginning to evolve into a well-defined structure, with clear upper and lower boundaries. Gowanus Monster noted that the current focus lies on identifying a higher low within this channel. He also pointed to a key principle: when a price rebound from the upper boundary of a descending channel fails to reach the lower boundary, instead bottoming out early, it often precedes a bullish breakout to the upside. This nuanced behavior, if confirmed, may set the stage for XRP to defy the current bearish structure and ignite a fresh rally beyond the confines of its channel. Bear Trap Scenario: When Oversold Meets Demand According to crypto analyst GemXBT, XRP remains firmly entrenched in a short-term downtrend, with price action currently trading below the 5, 10, and 20-period moving averages. This alignment of moving averages is a classic sign of sustained bearish momentum, suggesting that sellers continue to dominate the market in the near term. Presently, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dipped into the oversold zone, suggesting an imminent reversal or a period of consolidation as the market seeks equilibrium. Meanwhile, the MACD line remains below the signal line, indicating that downside pressure persists, and any potential recovery could face headwinds. From a price structure standpoint, GemXBT identified key support around $2.15, which could serve as a critical level for buyers to step in and defend. On the upside, resistance lies near $2.25, a zone that bulls would need to reclaim in order to shift short-term sentiment. The recent uptick in trading volume is worth noting, as it could introduce more volatility in the sessions ahead, either accelerating a breakdown if support fails or fueling a sharp recovery if sentiment flips.

A crypto analyst has forecasted a potential 1,000% rally for the Dogecoin price by the end of the year, suggesting that the leading meme coin could not only reach the coveted $1 milestone but blast past it to $2. While this target may seem bold, especially with Dogecoin still trading below $0.5, the analysis is backed by a compelling combination of historical price behavior, market structure, and accumulation patterns. Dogecoin Price Targets $2 By Year’s End According to a 2-day chart analysis published by crypto market expert ‘Setupsfx_‘ on TradingView, Dogecoin has been navigating a textbook accumulation phase reminiscent of previous cycles that preceded explosive price surges. Based on this distinct historical price behavior, the analyst is boldly predicting a major breakout, anticipating a 1,000% rally that could allow the meme coin to smash through $2 by the end of the year. Using the Wyckoff theory as a foundation, the TradingView expert presented a chart illustrating a clear structure of accumulation, distribution, markdown, and markup—- all of which have played out in past market movements. The chart shows that Dogecoin followed a typical Wyckoff accumulation in its early 2021 cycle, where it traded sideways and spent months consolidating in a defined range. This range, indicated by the blue box on the chart, has been highlighted as a key buy zone between roughly $0.12 and $0.16. Notably, this key zone is the final area where the Dogecoin price could be revisited before launching higher. A return to this range would complete the historical price structure and present an ideal entry point before the markup stage begins. Currently, Dogecoin has concluded its markdown phase and is approaching the final stages of accumulation, paving the way for a potential bullish breakout. If price action continues to respect this historically bullish roadmap, Setupsfx_ forecasts that Dogecoin could gradually move higher over the coming months. By late 2025, this could culminate in a full-blown rally to $2, a level that represents approximately 1,000% upside from current prices. While the TradingView analyst maintains a bullish stance on Dogecoin’s outlook, he has tempered expectations, cautioning that the journey to $2 isn’t expected to be linear. Dogecoin could still face volatility, retracement, and psychological resistance around levels like $0.25, $0.5, and $1, which could slow down its climb. A Push Above $3 Still In The Cards Crypto analyst Trader Tardigrade on X (formerly Twitter) is even more bullish on Dogecoin’s future price, projecting a potential rally to $3.8. This optimistic forecast is supported by the emergence of a bullish Ascending Broadening Wedge pattern on Dogecoin’s weekly chart. Six key touch points confirm the pattern, labeled A through F, within a widening channel indicated on the price chart. The critical level to watch is the $0.47 resistance level, marked by the previous high around point E. A confirmed breakout above this level could validate the wedge and potentially trigger a significant price surge. Based on the measured move from the wedge’s widest point, the analyst highlights a projected path to $3.8, representing a massive 2,011% surge from current prices around $0.18. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin and the broader crypto market have failed to find relief despite favorable Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data in the United States. According to data from CoinGecko, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization dipped by nearly 5% on Friday, May 30th. However, an industry expert has explained why the US macroeconomic landscape might not get better for the crypto and other risk asset markets over the next few months. This interesting projection suggests that the future looks a tad uncertain for the Bitcoin price and the rest of the cryptocurrency market. Why Fed Rate Cuts Are Not Coming Soon In a new post on the social media platform X, Jim Bianco explained why he expects the United States Federal Reserve not to cut the interest rate over the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. According to the investment research expert, the rationale behind the reduced likelihood of a rate cut is the rebounding US economy. Bianco mentioned that it would be reckless for the US Fed to cut interest rates with the economy recovering strongly and prices rising. The macroeconomics researcher said that slowed imports — due to increased trade tariffs — have been positive for the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP). Bianco further explained: Imports are “lost GDP.” It is a product manufactured outside the United States. Therefore, spiking imports, which cause a larger trade deficit, are a drag on GDP. It was the biggest reason the Q1 GDP was negative (revised yesterday from -0.3% to -0.2%). Liberation Day dramatically slowed imports, and the trade deficit reversed. This is boosting Q2 GDP. It is now estimated to be 3.8%, and could go higher as May was another slow import month. The financial market expert also highlighted the resulting tariff-driven inflation happening in the US and how it could drive the 2.3% year-on-year CPI higher. Ultimately, Bianco believes that the probability of a Fed rate cut is extremely low, as the opposite would be a reckless move. How Does This Impact The Bitcoin Market? Typically, lower interest rates mean that riskier assets, like crypto and stocks, are more attractive investment options, as the yields on traditional assets (like treasury bonds) diminish. As seen in the past years, the Bitcoin market tends to rally whenever the US Fed cuts interest rates. Moreover, Fed rate cuts often lead to a weaker US dollar, which could mean a higher value for assets priced against the United States currency. Hence, some investors use cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin to hedge against fiat currency debasement. Related Reading: Fresh Capital Keeps Pouring Into Bitcoin – Matching 2021 Bull Market Inflows In essence, rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve are generally bullish for Bitcoin and crypto, as they push investors to alternative markets for higher gains. However, it is important to consider the state of the economic environment before the rate cuts, as a positive macroeconomic landscape is often more favorable for the riskier assets. It is also worth mentioning that the absence of rate cuts over the next three months might not necessarily have the opposite bearish effect on the Bitcoin market.

The price of Bitcoin has dropped by nearly 4% over the last seven days, indicating the waning bullish momentum in the largest cryptocurrency market. This recent sluggishness has called into question the strength of the latest bull rally that saw the market leader climb to a new all-time high last week. According to an investment data platform, the price of BTC might not be done just yet with its bullish run, with the latest on-chain data suggesting room for further upside movement. Is BTC In An Overheated Market Condition Yet? Market analytics firm Alphractal took to the social media platform X to share an exciting on-chain insight into the current setup of the Bitcoin price. According to the blockchain company, the price of BTC sits in an interesting position that could profit only “attentive” investors. The relevant metric here is the Sharpe Ratio, which evaluates the risk-adjusted returns of a specific asset (Bitcoin, in this scenario). This indicator basically measures how much profit an investment offers per unit of risk (considering risk is measured by volatility). A rising Sharpe Ratio typically indicates a higher risk-adjusted performance. On the other hand, when this metric is in a downward trend, it implies that the coin is in a “lower-risk zone” and profits are becoming less significant. As observed in the chart above, the Bitcoin Sharpe Ratio (blue line) has not yet reached the upper trendline (red dashed line) — a crucial level that has served as a market peak indicator in the past. The indicator suggests that the flagship is currently in a zone of medium risk, implying that the market is less prone to uncontrolled movements. Alphractal noted: The upper trend line (red dashed line) has functioned as an excellent signal for moments of excessive euphoria in the Bitcoin market. The fact that we haven’t touched this region yet indicates there may be room for additional appreciation in the current cycle. While the Bitcoin Sharpe Ratio is still away from the region that signaled the past tops of the 2013, 2017, and 2021 cycles, investors might still want to apply some level of cautious optimism in their market approach. This is especially as the metric’s current values have historically coincided with both optimistic rallies and pessimistic corrections. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, the price of BTC sits just above the $104,100 level, reflecting an over 1% decline in the past 24 hours. According to data from CoinGecko, the premier cryptocurrency is down by more than 3% in the last seven days.

The recent price action for XRP has shown little sign of strength as the crypto is now battling sustained bearish pressure. Since the start of the correction phase on May 12, XRP has posted consecutive lower highs on the daily timeframe, slipping further from its May peak of $2.65. This ongoing decline comes after a rally that started last month, which saw the XRP price rebound from $1.80 in early April. However, the momentum that drove that surge has now been overtaken by a clear wave of red candles, and technical analysis suggests that the XRP price can crash below $2 again in the coming days to the April low. MasterAnanda Flags Risk Of Further XRP Downside A recent technical update shared by analyst MasterAnanda on TradingView reinforces the short-term bearish sentiment. The chart shared alongside the analysis shows XRP has broken down from a rising channel, with three consecutive daily closes below the lower trendline. These three consecutive red days have rejected the setup of an upwards bounce on the lower trendline. Although XRP is still trading above $2 right now, the longer it continues to trade below the $2.30 region, the more likely a steeper drop becomes. In his analysis on TradingView, the analyst MasterAnanda acknowledged that XRP may appear due for a rebound, but the underlying signals tell a different story. “It looks like XRPUSDT can recover any minute now, but the correction might not be over,” the analyst noted. Interestingly, despite the ongoing decline, bearish volume has been quite low. This shows that the selling may not be particularly strong, but also not challenged. This low-volume pullback suggests the market is drifting down due to a lack of buyers rather than intense selling pressure. Even so, the analyst noted that XRP has yet to reach a solid support level. XRP Bullish Long-Term, But Can Crash Below $2 Although the short-term chart paints a troubling picture, MasterAnanda is confident in XRP’s bullish trajectory in the long term. However, the Fibonacci retracement levels marked on the chart show that the price has already dropped through the 0.382 zone and is hovering near the 0.236 line at $2.035. Beneath that, the low near $1.75 is the critical area to watch, which aligns with the analyst’s projected support zone. If XRP fails to hold above $2.00, it could slip toward that higher low. A red arrow drawn on the daily candlestick timeframe chart shows the trajectory of this decline. As such, XRP traders should prepare for the possibility of a strong downside unless a strong reversal happens before the crypto breaks below $2. XRP’s bearish sentiment is gradually intensifying. If this correction continues unchecked, a retest of the $1.70 to $1.80 range may come sooner than expected. At the time of writing, XRP is trading at $2.13, down by 3.85% in the past 24 hours and 8.9% in the past seven days.

The Bitcoin price has not quite been able to maintain the bullish momentum that saw it climb to a new all-time high last week. Instead, the premier cryptocurrency has succumbed to bearish pressure over the past few days, falling about 7% from its record-high price. Unfortunately, the Bitcoin price seems to be at the start of what could be a disappointing downward run over the coming weeks. The latest technical price data indicate a potential bearish trend reversal for the price of BTC, with the market leader at risk of losing its six-figure valuation. Which Technical Indicators Are Sounding The Sell Alarm? In a May 30 post on the X platform, crypto analyst Burak Kesmeci provided a technical insight into the price of Bitcoin, explaining that signs are quickly turning bearish for the flagship cryptocurrency. The online pundit projected that BTC could face a severe price downturn to around the $93,000 level in the near future. Kesmeci highlighted changes in some technical indicators on the daily timeframe, suggesting that a correction might be on the horizon for the Bitcoin price. One of these indicators is the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum indicator that estimates the speed and magnitude of an asset’s price movements. As observed in the chart above, the daily RSI is around 51 points and below the 14-day simple moving average (SMA). According to the crypto analyst, this technical indicator shift points to a weakening bullish momentum for the Bitcoin price. Kesmeci also noted that the Fixed Range Volume Profile (FRVP), which analyzes trading volume around a price region, signals a heavy trading zone around the $103,500 level. A sustained close beneath this level could lead to elevated selling pressure for the flagship cryptocurrency, the analyst said. Furthermore, Kesmeci mentioned that the AlphaTrend indicates that a second close below 106.269 may trigger a “sell” signal for the Bitcoin price. Meanwhile, the Average Directional Index (ADX) suggests that the bears are gaining the upper hand in the market. Finally, Kesmeci pinpointed the next target at the 0.5 Fibonnaci level and the FRVP Value Area Low (VAL), both of which could be considered major support zones, at around $93,000 and $91,800, respectively. Ultimately, all these technical levels suggest that the Bitcoin price may correct to the $91,000 – $93,000 bracket. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, the price of BTC is hovering around the $104,000 mark, reflecting an almost 2% decline in the past 24 hours.

Ethereum has struggled to sustain the all-important $2.5K level. It’s currently trading in a tight zone between $2.75K and $2.4K ever since May 10. It’s worth noting that even after the recent 9% decline in $ETH’s prices, the annualized premium stands at 6%. This means that $ETH futures are currently at a 6% premium compared to spot. In simple words, traders are willing to pay more for $ETH than its spot price, indicating an overall neutral-to-bullish sentiment. Read on as we discuss the ongoing market sentiments around Ethereum. We’ll also suggest the best crypto to buy now to ride the upcoming $ETH-fueled crypto rally. Ethereum’s Positive Market Data A possible reason for the decline in $ETH’s price might be investors losing interest in dApps across the blockchain. The total value locked (TVL) of the crypto industry is currently at $122B. This is 43% less than its all-time high in December 2021. Even then, Ethereum dominates the TVL with a 54.2% market share. Out of this, 6.3% is added by Layer 2 on Ethereum. For comparison, Ethereum’s TVL is four times more than Solana and BNB Chain combined. All in all, while there has been a drop in the overall industry’s TVL, Ethereum has managed to emerge as a dominant player. Now, let’s compare the fees collected by Solana and Ethereum protocols. The top four dApps on Solana collected $356.3M in user fees in the last 30 days. Out of this, only $48.5M (13.6%) was collected as protocol fees. On the other hand, the top four dApps on Ethereum collected $169M in the last 30 days. 52% less than Solana. Out of this, $38.3M (22%) was collected as protocol fees. This is primarily because many dApps on Ethereum run on the Layer 2 solution, which settles back to the Ethereum mainnet and shares revenue with validators, creating demand for $ETH. So, while the prices may seem stagnant as of now, $ETH has still increased around 75% since mid-April. A solid consolidation is important for a sustained long-term price rally. A break above the $2.75K resistance can propel $ETH towards its all-time high at $4K. If you want to prepare yourself for this opportunity in the best manner possible, here are some top altcoins you can invest in. 1. MIND of Pepe ($MIND) – Best Crypto to Buy Now to Identify Explode-Worthy Tokens If you’ve been at sea trying to pick the next big crypto coin and want to supercharge your crypto investing career, MIND of Pepe ($MIND) is easily the #1 crypto you should buy. $MIND is a cutting-edge AI agent that: Interacts with the crypto community – in a context-aware tone using relevant crypto and meme lingo – on online platforms like X Acknowledges their opinions and insights on specific meme coins Combines online chatter with on-chain activity data, like volume spikes, early investor funding, etc., to identify the next cryptos to explode. As a $MIND token holder, you’ll enjoy exclusive access to the AI agent’s real-time actionable crypto investment advice. Additionally, MIND of Pepe is set to ultimately reach a stage where it can create tokens from scratch. Early-bird access to these high-potential new cryptos is also a huge benefit of HODLing $MIND. Luckily for you, MIND of Pepe is currently in presale. It has raised a whopping $11.9M, and each token is available for just $0.0037515. However, make sure you move fast because the $MIND presale is ending in around 2 days from now. Here’s our guide on how to buy MIND of Pepe. 2. Solaxy ($SOLX) – First-Ever Solana L2 with $40M in Presale Funding Solaxy ($SOLX) could be right at the center of the next surge in DeFi, seeing as it aims to revolutionize the Solana blockchain and restore its glory days. Solana, in case you’re out of the loop, has been facing congestion and scalability issues thanks to $TRUMP’s success, which brought hundreds of thousands of new investors to Solana. During peak activity hours, Solana is unable to process transactions, often resulting in failed transaction requests. Enter Solaxy. Solaxy will build the first-ever Layer 2 solution on Solana, which will offload a lot of Solana’s transactions onto a sidechain, thereby reducing the burden on the mainnet. Additionally, $SOLX will process transactions in batches rather than one by one. As is the case in conventional banking, batch processing will reduce the cost required per transaction, meaning Solana will become even more affordable than it is currently. With over $42.7M in early investor funding, the Solaxy presale has proven that investors are really looking forward to ‘Solana’s lifesaver’ going live. If you want to join the tribe, buy $SOLX now for just $0.00174 each. Hurry up, though, because the presale is in its last stage and will close out in a couple of weeks. 3. Comedian ($BAN) – Controversial Artwork Gets Its Very Own Meme Coin Comedian ($BAN) is a low-cap coin based on the infamous artwork of the Italian virtual artist Maurizio Cattelan. The artwork, which you might have definitely seen floating around on social media, features a banana taped to a wall. Yep, that’s it! Needless to say, this rather ‘bold’ display of artistic caliber drew in a lot of negative comments, especially from lovers of contemporary, old-school art that involved a lot of thought, skill, and, oh, brushstrokes. Permissible or not, the mere controversy surrounding the art was enough for crypto degens to push the $BAN token to mainstream popularity. With lifetime gains of over 100,000%, $BAN is currently one of the top trending cryptos. It has jumped more than 30% over the past month, and you can get one $BAN for just $0.06572 right now. Sweet Gains, But Spicy Market Utility-backed presale cryptos like MIND of Pepe ($MIND) and Solaxy ($SOLX) can indeed offer you once-in-a-lifetime opportunities to become crypto millionaires. However, the fact remains that the crypto market is highly volatile and unpredictable. No returns are guaranteed! So, always jump in with a small amount and do your own research before investing. This article isn’t financial advice.

Highlights include US NFP, ISM PMIs, ECB, BoC, EZ CPI, Canada Jobs, Swiss CPI and Aussie GDP Newsquawk Week Ahead Highlights for June 2nd – June 6th MON: Swiss GDP (Q1), EZ/UK/US Final Manufacturing PMI (May), US ISM Manufacturing PMI (May) TUE: RBA Minutes, South Korean Election, South Korean CPI (May), Swiss CPI (May), EZ Flash CPI (May), US Durable Goods (Apr) WED: BoC Announcement, Australian GDP (Q1), EZ/UK/US Final Services and Composite PMI (May), ISM Services PMI (May) THU: ECB Announcement, Swiss Unemployment (May), Swedish CPIF (May), EZ PPI (Apr), Canadian Trade Balance (Apr) FRI: RBI Announcement, CBR Announcement, German Trade Balance (Apr), EZ GDP R (Q1), EZ Retail Sales (Apr), EZ Employment Final (Q1), US Jobs Report (Mar), Canadian Jobs Report (May) US ISM MANUFACTURING PMI (MON): The consensus currently expects headline ISM manufacturing to be unchanged at 48.7 in May (note: these expectations may change ahead of the data release). As a basis of comparison, S&P Global’s flash US manufacturing PMI for May rose to a 3-month high of 52.3 from 50.2 in April; the output index also rose to a 3-month high, and back above the 50 mark which separates expansion and contraction (came in at 50.7 from 49.6). S&P Global said improved performances were driven by faster growth in new orders, with manufacturing inflows rising at the sharpest pace for 15 months. Manufacturing input inventories showed the largest increase on record as firms aimed to guard against tariff-related issues. Manufacturing output returned to growth after declines in March and April, though only slightly. Manufacturing input costs rose at the sharpest rate since August 2022, while export declines eased from Aprilʼs steep fall. Manufacturersʼ selling prices increased sharply, posting the largest monthly rise since September 2022. Confidence about the outlook reached its highest level in three months, despite manufacturing jobs being cut for a second consecutive month. RBA MINUTES (TUE): Minutes of the latest RBA confab will likely be dissected for more details, particularly after RBA Governor Bullock, at the post-meeting presser, revealed that the board discussed cutting by 25bps or 50bps. In terms of the decision itself, RBA cut the Cash Rate by 25bps to 3.85%, which was widely expected with money markets pricing in a 99.5% likelihood ahead of the announcement. RBA stated that inflation continues to moderate, the outlook remains uncertain and that maintaining low and stable inflation is the priority. RBA board judged that the risks to inflation have become more balanced and noted that uncertainty in the world economy has increased over the past three months and that volatility in financial markets rose sharply for a time. Furthermore, the board assessed that this move on rates will make monetary policy somewhat less restrictive, while it remains cautious about the outlook, particularly given the heightened level of uncertainty about both aggregate demand and supply. RBA also released its Quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy which noted that the escalation of global trade conflict is a key downside risk to the economy and that the global growth outlook was downgraded, while the central bank trimmed core domestic inflation forecasts and slightly raised its unemployment view. Oxford Economics noted that it views “rates as still being in slightly restrictive territory after this cut and expects to see two more rate cuts in the second half of 2025”. SOUTH KOREAN ELECTION (TUE): South Korea will conduct its presidential election on Tuesday to choose its new head of state following months of political instability that began with former President Yoonʼs botched martial law declaration in December which led to his arrest and impeachment. It also resulted in a period of three different acting Presidents over a six-month period. There are a total of six candidates although polling suggests it is essentially a two-horse race with only the two candidates from South Koreaʼs two major political parties having a realistic chance of winning. The opposition Democratic Party of Koreaʼs Lee Jae-myung is the clear front-runner who is ahead across opinion polls followed by the ruling People Power Partyʼs candidate Kim Moon-soo. The DPKʼs Lee previously ran for election in 2022 but narrowly lost against the since-ousted former President Yoon and is seen by supporters as a working-class hero. He had previously worked in a factory prior to becoming a human rights lawyer, he is also a vpolitician serving in the National Assembly, as well as the leader of the DPK party and was previously the Governor of Gyeonggi Province from 2018 to 2021. Lee recently said that an extra budget will be needed to boost the economy in the short term and that a deadline on tariff talks with the US should be reconsidered, while he also stated that heightened military tensions with North Korea are burdening South Koreaʼs economy. Furthermore, Lee has pledged to restore the hotline between North Korea and South Korea, as well as noted that there is no need to antagonise China or Russia. He had also previously criticised former President Yoon for being overly friendly towards the US and for showing blatant hostility against China and North Korea. Conversely, the incumbent PPPʼs Kim Moon-soo is the status quo candidate who recently served as the Labour Minister and was also a former Governor of Gyeonggi Province during 2006-2014, while Kim has vowed to create a business-friendly environment and said he may consider nuclear armament if possible as part of a US alliance, although has trailed behind DPK candidate Lee across opinion polls with a recent Realmeter survey showing support for the DP’s Lee at 49.2% vs 36.8% for Kim. SWISS CPI (TUE): There is currently no newswire consensus for the May figure. Aprilʼs headline came in shy of market consensus at 0.0% Y/Y, and cooler than the SNBʼs Q2 average forecast of 0.2% Y/Y. A figure which, at the time, significantly increased the odds of a 25bps cut in June to 0.00% and saw a slight chance of a 50bps cut into negative territory implied. Since, Chairman Schlegel has spoken a significant and somewhat unusually large amount of times for the SNB, remarks which have focussed primarily on currency manipulation. On the subject of inflation, Schlegel said negative inflation cannot be ruled out in the coming months, but made the point that the focus is not on the current inflation level but instead on mid-term price stability. Remarks which potentially imply the SNB has some scope to look through cooler-than-expected inflation, i.e. somewhat diminishing the odds of a cut into negative territory, though a 25bps cut to the Zero-Lower-Bound (ZLB) in June looks all-but-certain at this stage. Overall, a figure significantly below the SNBʼs 0.2% Y/Y Q2 average, particularly if it is in negative territory, increases the odds of the SNB moving from the current 0.25% policy rate straight into negative rates. EZ FLASH CPI (TUE): Data from member nations thus far includes an as-expected cooling of the Italian harmonized Y/Y figure to 1.9%. Spain also eased to 1.9%, slightly cooler than forecast. France’s inflation also eased more than forecast to 0.7% while Germany unexpectedly remained at the prior rate of 2.1%; while unexpected vs newswire consensus, the German outturn matched the skew from state CPIs. For the EZ, the headline Y/Y is seen moderating to 2.0% (prev. 2.2%) with the super core expected to tick down to 2.5% (prev. 2.7%); note, that some desks had expected the super-core to remain sticky at prior levels, but this was before the marked moderation seen in Spainʼs core figure though perhaps offset by the stickiness seen in the German equivalent. The ECB meeting begins the day after HICP prints (decision on Thursday), into which the base case is very much for a 25bps cut. As such, while the May figure is of course important it is unlikely to have any real sway on the announcement in June. However, the trajectory and timing of cuts post-June is less clear, details on that will be keenly sought during the ECB, a point that the inflation figure may have some influence on. BOC ANNOUNCEMENT (WED): The upcoming meeting is a statement-only affair with a follow-up press conference with Governor Macklem, there will be no update to the MPR. In between the prior BoC meeting and the upcoming meeting, money market expectations have fluctuated in response to recent data. As it stands, money markets are only pricing in 5bps of easing. Before the recent hot inflation data, a 25bps cut was priced with a 60% probability, but since the hotter-than-expected inflation report, this is no longer the case and a hold is priced as the more likely scenario (80% probability of a hold), which was also bolstered after strong Q1 GDP in Canada. At the prior meeting, the BoC left rates on hold and continued to provide no guidance due to the uncertainties ahead. However, Governor Macklem did note they are prepared to act decisively if incoming information points clearly in one direction. It is also worth noting that the Minutes of the meeting found that the council was split on whether to cut or hold. Those who favoured a cut cited near-term inflation risks and signs that the economy was weakening. Looking ahead, money markets are pricing in 35bps of easing throughout the year – this fully prices one more rate cut from the BoC, with a 52% probability of a second. US ISM SERVICES PMI (WED) : The consensus currently sees the headline ISM Services PMI ticking up to 52.0 from 51.6. In terms of a comparison, the S&P Global Services PMI in May rose to 52.3 from 50.8, a two-month high. The S&P Global report noted that “Export orders continued to fall, dropping especially sharply for services, supply chain delays intensified, and prices charged for goods and services surged to an extent not seen since August 2022, overwhelmingly linked to tariffs”. In terms of demand, growth for services was the strongest since March, primarily fueled by domestic demand, but exports of both goods and services fell for the second consecutive month, with trade policy widely linked to falling foreign sales of both goods and services. Exports of services fell at the sharpest rate since the early 2020 lockdowns, and excluding the pandemic, saw the sharpest fall since late 2014. Looking ahead, confidence about the outlook rose to a four-month high in services. In terms of prices, average prices for both goods and services rose at a rate not seen since August 2022, when pandemic-related shortages caused widespread price inflation. Charges levied for services rose to the greatest extent since April 2023. On employment, service sector payrolls were trimmed for the second time in four months. Try Newsquawk free for 7 days AUSTRALIAN GDP (WED): There are currently no expectations for Australian GDP growth. In terms of the most recent RBA, the central bank cut the Cash Rate by 25bps to 3.85%, which was widely expected with money markets pricing in a 99.5% likelihood of a move ahead of the announcement. RBA stated that inflation continues to moderate, the outlook remains uncertain and that maintaining low and stable inflation is the priority. Furthermore, the board assessed that this move on rates will make monetary policy somewhat less restrictive, while it remains cautious about the outlook, particularly given the heightened level of uncertainty about both aggregate demand and supply. RBA also released its Quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy which noted that the escalation of global trade conflict is a key downside risk to the economy and that the global growth outlook was downgraded, while the central bank trimmed core domestic inflation forecasts and slightly raised its unemployment view. Analysts at HSBC, in a note dated mid-May, forecasted a “modest negative growth impact” in Australia and suggested that the market shocks are likely slightly disinflationary for the country. ECB POLICY ANNOUNCEMENT (THU): Consensus looks for the ECB to cut rates by 25bps with markets assigning a 95% chance of such an outcome. As a reminder, the prior meeting saw policymakers pull the trigger on another 25bps rate cut, taking the Deposit Rate to 2.25%; a level which saw the central bank omit the reference to rates being viewed as restrictive. Within the statement, one of the main takeaways was that the Eurozone growth outlook deteriorated owing to rising trade tensions. Since then, whilst there has been an easing of tensions between the US and China, which led to an improvement in the global trade outlook, a deal between the EU and the US remains elusive. The lack of progress prompted US President Trump to recommend a 50% tariff on the EU as of June 1st. This threat has since been pushed back to July 9th and the EU is increasing efforts to get an agreement. However, large gaps between the two sides remain. From a data perspective, flash CPI metrics for the Eurozone will not be released until Tuesday. However, in recent remarks, Chief Economist Lane is confident that the Bankʼs task to bring inflation back to 2% is “mostly completed”. On the growth front, PMI data for May showed an improvement in the manufacturing sector and a deterioration in services with both metrics still in contractionary territory. The accompanying release noted “the eurozone economy just cannot seem to find its footing”. Assuming the ECB cuts by 25bps next week, the focus will be on any clues as to what comes thereafter given the apparent split of views on the GC. The accounts of the ECB meeting (albeit when trade tensions were higher) showed that some members would have been comfortable with a 50bps reduction, whilst those at the hawkish end of the spectrum, such as Austriaʼs Holzmann, think the Bank should pause until April. Currently, markets see a total of 54bps of loosening by year-end (including the expected June cut). For the accompanying macro projections, Rabobank expects growth to be revised down a touch for both 2025 and 2026 while the inflation view is likely to be trimmed for 2025 to 2.0% (Mar. 2.3%) but increased for 2026 to 2.3% (Mar. 2.0%). SWEDISH CPIF (THU): There is currently no newswire consensus for Swedenʼs CPIF figures on Thursday, but Danske Bank predicts that the headline will remain unchanged from the prior reading of 0.2% M/M & 2.3% Y/Y. As for the core figure, the bank sees M/M cooling to 0.1% (prev. 0.5%) and Y/Y cooling to 2.4% (prev. 3.1%). To recap Aprilʼs report; CPIF remained steady at 2.3% whilst the core figure saw a slight uptick, thanks to rising travel prices. Following this, with inflation remaining elevated and the uncertain economic environment, the Riksbank opted to keep rates steady at 2.25%. Policymakers highlighted that “it is somewhat more probable that inflation will be lower than that it will be higher than in the March forecast. This could suggest a slight easing of monetary policy going forward” – but the Bank remained cautious by noting the “impact on inflation is more difficult to assess”. SEB suggests that barring any surprises, they see the Riksbank delivering a 25bps cut at the next meeting (June); markets currently price in a 40% chance of such a move, so this will be a very important report for policymakers. RBI ANNOUNCEMENT (FRI): The RBI will hold its 3-day policy meeting next week where there are expectations for the central bankto lower rates again by 25bps to reduce the Repurchase Rate to 5.75% from the current 6.00% level. As a reminder, the RBI cut its main rates by 25bps as widely expected at the last meeting in April with the decision made unanimously and it also shifted its policy stance to accommodative from neutral. Meanwhile, Governor Malhotra said during the policy address that the accommodative tance signals the intended direction of policy rates going forward and that going forward, absent any shocks, the Monetary Policy Committee will only consider the status quo, and a rate cut. Furthermore, he stated that tariff measures have exacerbated uncertainties with some trade frictions coming through and unsettling the global community, as well as noted that higher tariffs will have an impact on net exports and the dent on global growth due to trade frictions will impede domestic growth. As such, the MPCʼs accommodative stance and ongoing trade uncertainty support the case for the RBI to continue cutting rates, while the recent softening of inflation data also provides further scope for the RBI to continue loosening its policy as CPI in April printed 3.16% vs. Exp. 3.27% (Prev. 3.34%) to remain below the central bankʼs 4% target but within the 2-6% flexible band. US JOBS REPORT (FRI): The consensus currently expects 130k nonfarm payrolls to be added to the US economy in May (vs 177k in April; the 3-month average currently stands at 155k, 6-month at 193k, and the 12-month at 157k). The unemployment rate is seen unchanged at 4.2% (note: the Fed’s March projections forecast unemployment would rise to 4.4% this year). Average hourly earnings are expected to rise by +0.3% M/M, picking up in pace from the +0.2% M/M reported in April. Analysts will be watching the Federal job loss figures, which many think will tick up as severance periods end. Weekly jobless claims data that coincides with the BLS survey window for the jobs report showed initial claims at 226k (vs 216k in the April survey window), and continuing claims at 1.919mln (vs 1.833mln in the April window). The Conference Board’s monthly consumer confidence data showed views of the labour market weakening in May, though the outlook for the labour market was less negative. Additionally, consumersʼ outlook for their income prospects turned positive in May, CB said. In terms of the Fed’s balance between still above-target inflation, and a “solid” labour market, the recent FOMC meeting minutes noted that risks of higher inflation and higher unemployment have risen recently, and officials saw risks of the labour market weakening in the coming months, and said that it could face difficult trade-offs if inflation persists while the labour market weakens. CANADIAN JOBS REPORT (FRI): Participants will be watching the labour market report to see whether or not Trump’s tariffs are having an impact on the labour market. In between the prior BoC meeting and the upcoming meeting, money market expectations have fluctuated in response to recent data. As it stands, money markets are only pricing in 5bps of easing. Before the recent hot inflation data, a 25bps cut was priced with a 60% probability, but since the hotter-than-expected inflation report, this is no longer the case and a hold is priced as the more likely scenario (80% probability of a hold), which was also bolstered after strong Q1 GDP in Canada. Given this jobs report takes place after Wednesday’s BoC rate decision, it will likely shape expectations for the July meeting, where 16bps of easing is priced, implying a 64% probability of a cut. Copyright © 2025 Newsquawk Voice Limited. All rights reserved. Registered Office One Love Lane, London, EC2V 7JN, United Kingdom · Registered Number 12020774 · Registered in England and Wales. newsquawk.com · +44 20 3582 2778 · info@newsquawk.com Join Global Traders Association FREE – Click HERE

Navigating the global economy and managing capital market volatility has always posed challenges, but the uncertainties emanating from Washington make this task exceptionally treacherous. The so-called reciprocal tariffs announced on April 2 were postponed for 90 days just one week later, ostensibly to usher in a period of intensive negotiations. Yet a few weeks into this cooling-off period, despite claims of dozens of deals in the pipeline, the Trump administration acknowledged it "lacked the capacity" to negotiate with everyone simultaneously. Instead, it indicated it would simply announce new tariff schedules unilaterally in what appears to be a second "Liberation Day." Then, in late May, the US Court of International Trade found that the Trump administration overstepped its authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. An appellate court upheld the tariffs pending a higher court review. The White House will continue to press its case and/or find a different authority. Congress does not appear close to clawing back the power on trade it has delegated. At the same time, the capricious and unpredictable nature of US policy was underscored by the doubling of steel and aluminum tariffs to 50% on May 30 (effective June 4). The escalating tariffs and counter-tariffs between the US and China have morphed into what effectively constituted an embargo between the world's two largest economies. This trade rupture threatened to disrupt US supply chains catastrophically while driving the economy toward recession. The loss of US demand, combined with higher tariffs on countries where Chinese and foreign companies had outsourced mainland production, weighed on China's economic activity. Despite the 90-day negotiating respite, tariffs remain considerably higher than previous levels. Meanwhile. Container ship traffic surged before the respite was granted but has since slowed again. This frantic stockpiling has led many economists to downgrade recession probabilities for the US. The Peterson Institute estimates that average US tariffs on Chinese goods now hovers around 51%, while China's average tariff on US imports reaches approximately 32.5%. Meanwhile, the average US tariff on the rest of the world sits just below 12%, compared to China's average tariff of roughly 6.5% on non-US goods. This cease-fire, however, should not be mistaken for peace. Days before the Sino-American détente in Switzerland, Washington struck a basic trade agreement with the UK that many observers—particularly in Beijing—viewed as an overt attempt to lock China out of British supply chains. Within days of the Swiss meeting, the US issued a formal warning against using Huawei AI "anywhere in the world," characterizing such use as a violation of US export controls. Beijing took serious umbrage at this sweeping assertion, claiming it undermined the recently negotiated agreement. While the US reportedly softened the "anywhere in the world" language, this concession failed to satisfy Beijing, which threatened unspecified retaliation. In addition, the administration announced new controls on jet engine part exports to China, threatened to revoke student visas from China, and imposed new restrictions on the sale of chip design software. As May wound down, US Treasury Secretary Bessent acknowledged that the talks with China stalled, while the Trade Representative office complained that Beijing has not expedited its approval for critical minerals and metals. Still, China's ability to capitalize on the apparent vacuum created by US foreign policy has been constrained by its own aggressive trade practices and regional bullying, affecting not only Taiwan but also the Philippines, Japan (over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands), Bhutan, and Nepal. China is nonetheless making significant headway in two critical areas. First, the internationalization of the yuan has accelerated dramatically. Last year witnessed a record volume of panda bonds—yuan-denominated bonds issued by non-Chinese entities, including governments and corporations—totaling 109 issues worth approximately CNY195 billion ($26.7 billion). This year has reportedly started even more robustly. Chinese banks themselves have begun shifting from dollar-denominated to yuan-denominated lending. While this shift partly reflects cyclical considerations—Chinese interest rates remain considerably lower than US and European rates—it also signals the continued maturation of yuan markets in a self-reinforcing cycle. The desire to de-dollarize or de-risk international transactions, given the extensive reach of US sanctions, likely plays an additional role. Second, just as Russia's invasion of Ukraine has provided a proving ground for new weapons and tactics, the recent confrontation between India and Pakistan offered China an opportunity to test its latest armaments in combat. Press coverage suggests that China's J-10C fighter jets performed better than many anticipated, though its HQ-9 surface-to-air missile systems may have disappointed. Given the sheer number of increasingly educated and skilled personnel in China's defense sector, it appears some critical threshold has been crossed, suggesting more Deep Seek-like technological breakthroughs lie ahead. If one word could characterize the current business climate, it would be uncertainty. The drip-feed of tariffs, policy reversals, and ongoing sectoral investigations—spanning movies, semiconductor chips, pharmaceuticals, and timber—combined with "flooding the zone" tactics, has bewildered businesses and investors alike. While there is general recognition that the 0.2% economic contraction in Q1 represented a significant distortion caused by efforts to front-run tariffs—leading to a historic import surge, stronger consumption, and elevated business investment, particularly in inventories—modest growth appears to have returned in Q2. Nevertheless, concerns persist. At a fundamental level, we expect poor sentiment reflected in surveys to percolate into real sector data. The labor market remains key, and between government layoffs and the hiring slowdown, unemployment looks set to rise. Tourism is expected to weaken considerably as European and Canadian bookings have fallen sharply. Like the tariffs themselves, both formal and informal curbs on immigration carry both inflationary and contractionary implications. A critical question is whether global investors will join tourists in their informal consumer boycott of US brands abroad and withdraw their savings from American markets. Many observers expect this outcome, particularly on days when US bonds are sold but the dollar falls despite ostensibly supportive higher interest rates. Yet the dollar does not always move in tandem with US rates. The rolling 60-day correlation between Dollar Index changes and 10-year US yields rarely exceeds 0.60 and spent several months in 2022 inversely correlated. Extended periods of inverse correlation have occurred before, with the longest recent stretch running from March 2011 through May 2013. US equities have underperformed thus far this year, while the 10-year US Treasury yield is off around 15 basis points, which is the most within G7 countries. On the other hand 10-year Japanese yields have risen by about 40 bp, 14 basis points in Germany and eight basis points in the UK. The greenback has weakened against the world's currencies, except against a few emerging market currencies. American and international investors began the year overweight US assets, compelled by their remarkable outperformance. While some portfolio adjustments have occurred, concluding that a capital strike against the US is underway—or as former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers quipped, that America is "acting like an emerging market" appears premature. Observers and media frequently construct structural narratives around what are ultimately cyclical or tactical shifts. While something more profound may be occurring, it will require time to manifest clearly in the data. After Moody's stripped the US of its AAA rating, the Swiss National Bank president explained from a reserve manager's perspective that "US Treasuries remain extremely liquid. There is currently no alternative to them, and none is foreseeable." In a similar vein, Canada’s largest pension plan indicated that US holdings accounted for 47% of its portfolio at the end of March, up from 42% in 2024 and 36% in 2023. The US Treasury's International Capital report (TIC) revealed that foreign investors purchased a net $350 billion of US stocks and bonds in Q1 2025, compared to less than $40 billion in Q1 2024. Selling pressure appeared to intensify around what President Trump dubbed "Liberation Day" in early April, though some investment flow reports suggest domestic investors were notable sellers. Occam's razor dictates that simpler explanations are preferable pending additional data, and in this context, we should assume cyclical portfolio adjustments are at work rather than fundamental structural shifts. Bannockburn's World Currency Index, a GDP-weighted basket of the currencies of the 12 largest economies, rose for the fifth consecutive month in May. After rising by more than 1% in both March and April, the BWCI appreciated by a more modest 0.20% in May. This reflected the continued but slowing appreciation of most of the foreign currencies against the dollar. Among the currencies from high income countries, only the yen fell against the dollar, the euro rose by less than 0.2%. The Australian dollar did only slightly better, while the Canadian dollar rose by almost 0.5%. Sterling's gain of slightly more 1.1% led the G10 components, but three currencies from developing economies outperformed it. The Russian ruble was the strongest currency in Bannockburn's World Currency Index, rising by about 5.8%, followed by the South Korean won's 3.0% gain. The Chinese yuan gained almost 1%. The Mexican peso held on to around a 0.9% gain after pulling back into the end of the month. The Brazilian real fell by about 0.85%, The Indian rupee was the weakest member of the BWCI, and it fell by about 1.25% against the dollar in May. Through last month, the BWCI rose 3.4% in 2025. It fell for the past four years, including last year's 7.3% slide. It is struggling near 91.00 and has been consolidating between around 90.00 and 91.00 since mid-April. A convincing move through 91.25 could target the 92.30-45 area. U.S. Dollar: The US has launched two initiatives that have contributed to the dollar's decline in recent months. Economists often seem not to agree with each other, but there is widespread recognition that that tariffs are a tax on importers that can be divided between businesses (narrower profit margins) and consumers (higher prices). Surveys of US businesses confirm that the majority will be raising prices. The other initiative is the "big, beautiful budget" that was narrowly passed by the House of Representatives after Moody's took away the US triple A rating. You cannot say Moody's hasn't been patient with both political parties. S&P first cut the US AAA rating in 2011. Inflation will likely seem particularly sticky in May and June when the CPI was flat in 2024. The labor market is key, but even if job growth slows to 130k in May, as the median forecast in Bloomberg's survey says, the three-month moving average would tick up. We suggest that only a marked deterioration of the labor market will spur the market to bring next cut back from Q4 where it has been pushed in recent weeks. The US 10- and 30-year yields rose by around 25 bp in May, and many reasons have been offered. The most compelling one is often the simplest. The nearly 50 bp rise in the expected year-end policy rate can alone explain the rise in the long-term yields. The failure of the dollar to draw more succor from the backing up of rates lends credibility to our framing that given the uncertainty surrounding the US, investors are demanding higher premiums to hold dollars. Euro: The euro's rally accelerated in April, when it rose 4.7% against the dollar, the most in any month since May 2009. Moreover, it was the second consecutive month that it rose by more than 4%, and it was the fourth consecutive monthly gain. It eked out a minor gain in May but reached $1.1575, its highest level since November 2021. It corrected to about $1.1065 where it held technical support. Buyers emerged to lift it back to almost $1.1420. The US threat to impose a 50% tariff on all EU goods caused the euro to briefly wobble, but the market quickly concluded that this was likely a negotiating tactic, and the US extended the deadline to July 9, when the postponement of the so-called reciprocal tariffs expire. We expect additional euro gains in the coming weeks and see potential toward $1.1650. The key driver seems its deep and liquid alternative to the dollar, and portfolio re-allocation decisions rather than EMU developments. Further out, the euro may be on its way back to $1.20. The new German government reversed previous opposition to allowing nuclear power to be considered among the "renewables" for EU purposes and this may set the stage for additional agreements. The swaps market has no doubt that the European Central Bank will cut key rates by 25 bp at its June 5 meeting. That would bring the deposit rate to 2.0%. It seems reasonable to expect the ECB's path will become less aggressive as the neutral rate (suggested by ECB President Lagarde to be near 1.75%) is approached. (As of May 30, indicative closing prices, previous in parentheses) Spot: $1.1345 ($1.1365) Median Bloomberg One-month forecast: $1.1300 ($1.1140) One-month forward: $1.1370 ($1.1385) One-month implied vol: 7.9% (9.3%) Japanese Yen: The dollar's four-month down draft against the yen ended in May. The dollar rose by almost 0.5% last month. Although the correlation of the daily changes in the exchange rate and the 10-year Treasury yield slackened, the US 10-year yield also rose for the first time in five months in May. The swaps market has 16 bp of tightening discounted at the end of the year, unchanged from the end of April. The combination of elevated inflation and the central bank's pullback of its JGB purchases saw pressure mount on the long end of the Japanese yield curve. The 30-year bond yield rose by around 26 bp, to trade above 3% for the first time since 2001. The 40-year yield jumped more than 40 bp to reach 3.70% but reversed in recent days to settle the month almost unchanged. The US-Japanese 10-year differential is near 292 bp after finishing April near 285 bp. Japanese officials want to strike a trade deal with the US in June, ahead of the end of the 90-day postponement of the reciprocal tariffs and the July upper house election. The BOJ owns more than half of the outstanding government bonds, but one would imagine that the Japanese banks and insurance companies may also vulnerable. Yet, Topix indices for both sectors rose in May. There is some speculation that Japanese officials will try to persuade banks and insurance companies to buy more government bonds. Since an important alternative is US bonds, this is being incorporated into dollar-bear scenarios. The dollar tested important support near JPY140 in April and recovered to JPY148.65 in May before coming under new pressure. A convincing break of the JPY140.00 area (the 2024 low was near JPY139.60) would be seen to confirm a long-term top. Spot: JPY144.00 (JPY143.65) Median Bloomberg One-month forecast: JPY144.00 (JPY144.80) One-month forward: JPY143.55 (JPY143.20). One-month implied vol: 11.1% (11.9%) British Pound: Sterling was driven to new three-year highs in late May to almost $1.3600 by two forces. The first was the broad weakness of the dollar, and the second was a reconsideration of the trajectory of Bank of England policy. Stronger-than-expected Q1 GDP, which at 0.7% (quarter-over-quarter) put it atop the G7. Higher inflation, especially core (3.8% vs. 3.4%) and services (5.4% vs. 4.7%) and retail sales contributed to the swaps market raising its anticipation of the year-end base rate to 3.85% from 3.50% at the end of April. The base rate target is 4.25% now. There is practically no chance of a BOE rate cut at the June 19 meeting, and the odds of a cut at the August 7 meeting are around 40%. The next cut is not fully discounted until November. The UK reached a framework of a trade deal with the US and finalized a free-trade agreement with India. The UK also struck an agreement with the EU that begins re-building a post-Brexit relationship. Sterling's gain in May was not particularly large. In fact, it was slightly less than half of the nearly 3.2% gain in April. There is little on the charts to deter a move toward $1.3650. Yet, with a four-month advance in tow, the longest streak since 2009, sterling appears to be getting stretched. Spot: $1.3460 ($1.3315) Median Bloomberg One-month forecast: $1.3300 ($1.3160) One-month forward: $1.3465 ($1.3320) One-month implied vol: 7.6% (8.2%) Canadian Dollar: Elevated underlying core inflation measures prompted a downgrade of the chances of a Bank of Canada rate cut when it meets on June 4. Before the news that core inflation accelerated more than 3% year-over-year for the first time since Q1 24, the swaps market was discounting almost a 70% chance of a June cut. The odds have been halved, but economists in Bloomberg's survey still favor a cut. The target rate is now 2.75%. The market puts it near 2.35% for the end of the year, which implies one cut is fully discounted and almost 60% chance of another. Economists are worried that the disruption coming from the US is a powerful headwind. The median forecast in Bloomberg's survey sees the economy contracting this quarter and stagnating next. The Bank of Canada forecasts growth this year of 1.8% year-over-year. The median projection in Bloomberg's survey is for 1.2% and the IMF says 1.4%. The US dollar fell below CAD1.37 to reach its lowest level since last October. We suspect there is potential toward CAD1.3400. Spot: CAD1.3740 (CAD 1.3865) Median Bloomberg One-month forecast: CAD1.3900 (CAD1.4025) One-month forward: CAD1.3720 (CAD1.3856) One-month implied vol: 6.1% (6.4%) Australian Dollar: The Reserve Bank of Australia delivered its second quarter-point cut of the year in May, which brought its cash target rate to 3.85%. Governor Bullock acknowledged that a half-point cut was considered. The Australian dollar wobbled on the dovish cut but quickly recovered and returned toward the high for the year set in early May near $0.6515. The futures market is pricing around 2/3 the chance of quarter-point cut at the next RBA meeting in July. Between now and the end of the year, the market has three cuts fully discounted. The most important macroeconomic data that may influence the July decision include the employment report on June 19, the May CPI on June 25, and May household spending on July 4. A move above $0.6550 targets the $0.6700-$0.6750 area. Spot: $0.6430 ($0.6395) Median Bloomberg One-month forecast: $0.6400 ($0.6350) One-month forward: $0.6435 ($0.6400) One-month implied vol: 10.1% (11.0%) Mexican Peso: The US switch from encouraging near-shoring and friend-shoring to on-shoring threatens Mexico's economic strategy. The US is also threatening to tax worker remittances by non-Americans, and this threatens a key source of hard currency for Mexico. The economy is weak though after contracting by 0.6% in Q4 24, it eked out a 0.2% expansion in Q1 25. The central bank cut its forecast for 2025 growth to 0.1%, but this may prove to be too optimistic. The IMF warns of a 0.3% contraction this year, while the median forecast in Bloomberg's survey sees a stagnant economy. The central bank has delivered three half-point rate cuts this year and is set to deliver another when it meets on June 26 (which will bring the overnight target rate to 8.0%), even though headline inflation is moving above the 3% +/-1% target. Nevertheless, the peso continues to demonstrate impressive resilience. With nearly 1.7% appreciation in May, the peso rose by nearly 8% this year against the dollar and reached its best level in seven months. There is scope for additional gains, partly fueled, it appears, by short dollar/long peso carry trades. Near-term technical potential exists for the dollar toward MXN19.00. Spot: MXN19.4375 (MXN19.5050) Median Bloomberg One-month forecast: MXN19..5285 (MXN19.9870) One-month forward: MXN19.5125 (MXN19.4840) One-month implied vol: 10.6% (11.5%) Chinese Yuan: Contrary to conventional wisdom that anticipated a significant depreciation of the yuan to offset the US punitive tariffs, the yuan strengthened. In fact, by late May, the yuan was trading at six-month highs against the US dollar. Our working hypothesis remains that Beijing does not want a weak or strong yuan, but one that is broadly stable against the US dollar. This broad stability against the greenback means that in the current weak US dollar environment, the yuan tends to gain competitive advantage against most of its other trading partners. The PBOC reduced key rates and reserve requirements last month. It also provided more liquidity through the one-year medium-term lending facility. More fiscal efforts to support domestic demand appear needed for the 5% GDP target to be reached, especially given the still high tariffs the US is imposing and other efforts to lock China out of supply chains. Many observers attribute China's economic challenges to under-consumption but consumption has been rising at compounded annual growth rate of around 8% since at least the Great Financial Crisis. The reason that consumption has not accounted for a large share of GDP is that investment has risen slightly faster. Over-investment ripples through nearly every sector to which China's industry turns. Chinese businesses, however, compete for market share more so than profits. Spot: CNY7.1990 (CNY7.2870) Median Bloomberg One-month forecast: CNY7.2500 (CNY7.3320) One-month forward: CNY7.1725 (CNY7.2135) One-month implied vol: 4.6% (4.8%) Disclaimer

Africa crypto news: A High Court in Gauteng, South Africa, rules that crypto is free from exchange controls. Kenya will host a crypto conference in June. Blockchain.com is setting up an office in Nigeria. South African crypto holders got a major reprieve after the High Court said tokens, including some of the best cryptos to buy now, are not subject to exchange control regulations. Meanwhile, crypto stakeholders in Kenya are ready for a blockchain conference in mid-June. Binance will be the main sponsor. On the West African coast, Blockchain.com is set to open an office in Nigeria as part of a continent-wide expansion drive. Let’s explore the major crypto stories on the African continent this week: South Africa Crypto News: Tokens Not Subject to Exchange Controls A High Court in Pretoria, South Africa, has ruled that cryptos do not qualify as “capital” under the country’s exchange control regulations. South Africa has strict exchange control regulations, requiring regulatory approval to export specific types of capital. Classifying crypto as capital for exchange control would have been problematic, given its borderless nature. Crypto traders no longer need the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) approval before moving crypto from crypto money service providers in the country to international options. DISCOVER: 9+ Best High-Risk, High-Reward Crypto to Buy in May 2025 Kenya Crypto News: Blockchain Conference Set for June The Kenya Blockchain and Crypto Conference is scheduled for June 12 and 13 in Nairobi. This conference will gather over 1,500 industry stakeholders across Africa as Kenya continues to become an important hub for crypto commerce. With over 5 years of experience building mobile and backend systems in fintech and Web3, Renny Langat is helping redefine how decentralized technologies integrate with real-world systems. As a co-founder at Jua Labs, advisor at @ADAMUR_R, and an engineer at @lipad_io, he’s… pic.twitter.com/Eq9X6gFw2J — Kenya Blockchain & Crypto Conference (@KBCC_01) May 29, 2025 The event will bring together regulators, developers, investors, and policy experts to explore ways to boost regional adoption and innovation. Binance, which lists some of the next 1000X cryptos, is a notable sponsor of the event, which will allow other crypto platforms to showcase their services. Kenyan legislators are also debating a Virtual Assets Service Providers (VASP) bill that could shape the country’s crypto adoption. This conference will be a chance for industry stakeholders to contribute to making this legislation fit for purpose. DISCOVER: The 12+ Hottest Crypto Presales to Buy Right Now Africa Crypto News: Blockchain.com Expands UK crypto exchange Blockchain.com is set to expand to multiple African countries and open a physical office in Nigeria. The exchange states that growing regulatory clarity on the continent drives its expansion into Africa. Nigeria, Ghana, and South Africa have taken steps in the regulatory landscape. Ghana will enact legislation later this year to govern the industry per international best practices. Meanwhile, Nigeria enacted legislation on securities governing the crypto sector earlier this year. Blockchain.com will become the first foreign crypto exchange to establish a presence in Nigeria, signaling confidence after Nigeria’s public dispute with Binance last year. BREAKING NEWS : Binance set to exit Nigerian market, ceases provision of services in local currency. The platform has informed users that any remaining NGN balances will be automatically converted to Tether (USDT) stablecoin after March 8. Users are advised to withdraw, trade… pic.twitter.com/eXlmfeft63 — Nigeria Stories (@NigeriaStories) March 5, 2024 Opening a physical office is a vote of confidence in the Nigerian market and, by extension, multiple African countries. DISCOVER: 7 High-Risk High-Reward Cryptos for 2025 Africa Crypto News: South Africa Court Ruling, Blockchain.com Nigeria South Africa crypto news: High Court rules that cryptos are exempt from exchange control regulations Kenya crypto news: Binance is backing a crypto event scheduled for mid-June 2025 in Nairobi, Kenya Nigeria crypto news: Blockchain.com is expanding in Africa. Will set up a physical office in Nigeria The post Africa Crypto News in Review: South Africa Court Backs Crypto, Kenya to Host Blockchain Conference, Blockchain.com In Nigeria appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

Bitcoin just reminded everyone that it’s still the wild child of the financial world. After flirting with record highs earlier this month, the price nosedived to around $104,000 on May 30, wiping out billions in value overnight. The move blindsided traders, triggered massive liquidations, and put a serious dent in BlackRock’s headline-making Bitcoin ETF. It took just 24 hours for $827 million to be liquidated, showing how quickly crypto sentiment can flip. Over $800 Million Gone in a Flash More than $827 million worth of crypto bets were liquidated in just 24 hours. Most of those were long positions, meaning people were counting on the market to keep climbing. Instead, it dropped fast. Once the selling started, it fed on itself. Leverage disappeared, accounts got wiped, and prices kept sliding. BITCOIN DIPS AS WHALES FACE LIQUIDATION Bitcoin pulls back sharply with $841 million liquidated in the past 24 hours. James Wynn’s high-profile 40x BTC long is now at risk, while Dogecoin leads altcoin losses in the red zone. Source: @BTCTN pic.twitter.com/CTIeHmQ0wu — Crypto Town Hall (@Crypto_TownHall) May 31, 2025 It wasn’t just Bitcoin feeling the pain. Ethereum dropped below $2,630. Dogecoin got hit harder, falling nearly 10 percent to under 20 cents. The total crypto market lost about $160 billion in a single day. BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF Takes a Bruise BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) had been on a winning streak. It raked in more than $6.3 billion in May alone and climbed into the top tier of global ETFs. Just a few days ago, it looked unstoppable. Then Bitcoin tanked, and IBIT got dragged down with it. That’s the catch with a spot ETF tied directly to Bitcoin’s price. It flies high when things are good, but it can just as easily nosedive when the market turns. For now, IBIT is still sitting on tens of billions in assets. But this dip is a wake-up call for investors who might have thought the hard part was over. DISCOVER: 9+ Best High-Risk, High-Reward Crypto to Buy in May 2025 Trump’s China Move Adds to the Chaos This market mess didn’t happen in a vacuum. President Trump reignited U.S.-China tensions this week by announcing fresh tariffs on Chinese imports. He accused China of breaking a trade deal by holding back rare earth exports, which are key for everything from tech gear to electric cars. - Price Market Cap - - - 24h 7d 30d 1y All Time Log That news sent a chill through global markets. Stocks dropped, commodities slipped, and crypto joined the panic. It’s not the first time Bitcoin has reacted to geopolitical drama, but it definitely helped push things over the edge. Short-Term Pain or the Start of Something Bigger? Some think this is just a cooldown after Bitcoin’s recent run-up. Others aren’t so sure. It’s hard to ignore the timing. A big sell-off, massive liquidations, and global headlines about tariffs and trade wars? That combo is enough to shake even confident hands. James Toledano from Unity Wallet said the pullback might be healthy, but warned that volatility like this shows how quickly things can unravel when confidence dips. DISCOVER: The 12+ Hottest Crypto Presales to Buy Right Now What to Watch Next The million-dollar question now is whether this is a blip or the beginning of a longer slump. Bitcoin has bounced back before, sometimes within days. Other times, corrections have dragged out for months. One thing’s clear though. For anyone thinking Bitcoin had finally matured into a quiet, stable asset, this week just laughed in their face. DISCOVER: 20+ Next Crypto to Explode in 2025 Join The 99Bitcoins News Discord Here For The Latest Market Updates Key Takeaways Over $827 million in crypto positions were liquidated in 24 hours as Bitcoin dropped to $104,000 on May 30. Long positions took the biggest hit, with traders expecting the rally to continue before the sharp reversal wiped them out. BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF, which saw record inflows in May, took a hit as the spot BTC price tanked. Trump’s new tariffs on China added fuel to the sell-off, rattling global markets and putting extra pressure on crypto. Analysts are divided on whether this is a short-term correction or the start of a deeper Bitcoin slump. The post Over $800M Liquidated as Bitcoin Price Falls Hard appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

Nigel Farage isn’t just stirring things up in British politics anymore. Now he’s trying to shake up the entire financial system. At the Bitcoin 2025 conference in Las Vegas, the Reform UK leader dropped a set of proposals that sound more like a crypto manifesto than a typical campaign pitch. He’s calling it the “Crypto Assets and Digital Finance Bill,” and it’s packed with bold ideas to make the UK a digital asset hub. The plan includes slashing crypto taxes, building a national Bitcoin reserve, and banning banks from cutting off people just because they use crypto. And just as Farage was making waves in Vegas, President Trump lit a fuse back home by announcing new tariffs on China, turning up the pressure on global markets. That backdrop made Farage’s speech feel more timely than anyone probably expected. Slashing Crypto Tax to 10 Percent Let’s start with the part that grabbed everyone’s attention. Farage wants to cut capital gains tax on crypto profits from as high as 24 percent down to a flat 10 percent. His reasoning? The current tax setup just pushes people to avoid reporting or move their money to places with better rules. Let’s get the British economy into the 21st century. Read Reform UK’s Cryptoassets and Digital Finance Bill. https://t.co/5QytUV1p1V pic.twitter.com/pfqdAxhHPe — Nigel Farage MP (@Nigel_Farage) May 30, 2025 He says this isn’t about helping the wealthy skirt taxes. It’s about making the system easier to follow so people actually follow it. It’s also a signal that the UK should stop pushing innovation out the door and start competing with countries like Portugal, which already treat crypto more favorably. A Bitcoin Reserve? You Heard That Right Farage also floated the idea of creating a Bitcoin reserve at the Bank of England. That’s not something you hear from many mainstream politicians, especially in the UK. But in his view, it makes sense. He pitched it as a modern financial hedge. Just like central banks hold gold, why not hold a little Bitcoin? Countries like El Salvador have already gone down that path. Farage wants Britain to be next. DISCOVER: 9+ Best High-Risk, High-Reward Crypto to Buy in May 2025 Taking On the Banks This part came with some personal fire. Farage recalled when his bank account with Coutts was shut down in 2023, and said thousands of people dealing with crypto have faced the same treatment. - Price Market Cap - - - 24h 7d 30d 1y All Time Log His bill would make it illegal for banks to discriminate against legal crypto users. If your money’s clean and your activity’s legal, banks shouldn’t be allowed to lock you out. He’s turning his own experience into policy, and that could resonate with a growing number of voters who have run into the same walls. Reform UK Gets the Crypto Treatment To prove he’s serious, Farage also announced that Reform UK is now accepting crypto donations. Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and even USDC are all fair game. Their site is already set up to handle it, and they’re sticking to election laws by requiring full donor verification. Zia Yusuf, the party chairman, added that they’re exploring the idea of letting people pay taxes in crypto and even creating a sovereign wealth fund backed by digital assets. It’s ambitious, but the signal is clear. They’re not treating crypto as a gimmick. It’s baked into their platform. DISCOVER: Top 20 Crypto to Buy in May 2025 Right Time, Right Topic? With Trump accusing China of breaking trade agreements and threatening new tariffs, markets are already on edge. Farage’s crypto-first pitch landed in the middle of all that, as more people start to look for alternatives to traditional finance. Whether or not the UK follows through with any of this, the fact that crypto is now a talking point in national politics says a lot. Farage is forcing the conversation, and other parties might soon have to respond. Crypto is no longer just for techies and traders. It’s officially on the political menu. DISCOVER: 20+ Next Crypto to Explode in 2025 Join The 99Bitcoins News Discord Here For The Latest Market Updates Key Takeaways Nigel Farage unveiled a sweeping “Crypto Assets and Digital Finance Bill” proposing lower taxes, a Bitcoin reserve, and stronger protections for crypto users. He wants to slash capital gains tax on crypto from 24% to 10%, aiming to make the UK more competitive with crypto-friendly nations. Farage proposed the Bank of England hold Bitcoin in reserve, calling it a modern hedge similar to gold. The bill would ban banks from closing accounts based on legal crypto activity, inspired by Farage’s own banking experience. Reform UK is now accepting crypto donations, reinforcing its commitment to digital assets as a core campaign issue. The post Farage Calls for Bitcoin Reserve and an End to Crypto Bank Bans appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

[Updated for 2025] If you’re wondering, “How much is one pound of gold worth in 2025?“—you’re not alone. As inflation rises, geopolitical tensions grow, and digital currencies shake the market, more Americans are turning to gold for stability. This updated guide will explain gold pricing by the pound, why it’s different from traditional ounce-based pricing, and what investors need to know today. Gold has always been a fascinating and valuable metal, sought after for its beauty and rarity. It has various uses, from jewelry making to an investment hedge against inflation. However, when it comes to understanding the value of gold, particularly by the pound, the calculations involve a unique measurement system distinct from the standard weights and measures used in daily life. This article delves into the nuances of gold’s value, providing a detailed exploration of how gold is measured, its current market value, and what this means for investors and collectors. Gold Price Per Pound in 2025 As of [June 2025], the price of gold per troy ounce is approximately $2,350. Since there are 12 troy ounces in one troy pound, the value of one pound of gold is: $2,350 x 12 = $28,200 (approximate) Note: Standard bullion markets price gold in troy ounces, not the 16-ounce avoirdupois pound used in everyday U.S. weight measurements. One avoirdupois pound equals roughly 14.583 troy ounces, which would make the gold value approximately $34,245 per pound in that context. The Measurement of Gold Unlike most items weighed using the avoirdupois system, gold is measured in troy ounces. This system is reserved for gold and other precious metals like silver and platinum. The troy ounce is heavier than the standard ounce, weighing approximately 31.1 grams, compared to the standard ounce, which weighs about 28.35 grams. This distinction is crucial in the precious metals market because it affects how gold’s value is calculated and understood. Calculating the Value of Gold by the Pound When people talk about the weight of gold, they might refer to it in pounds, but an important distinction must be made between a standard pound and a troy pound. Most are familiar with A standard pound, consisting of 16 avoirdupois ounces. However, in terms of troy ounces, a standard pound has only 14.58 troy ounces. Given approximately $2,027.44 per troy ounce, a standard pound of gold would be about $29,560.08. Conversely, a troy pound, the pound measurement used in the precious metals market, consists of 12 troy ounces. Thus, at the same price per troy ounce, a troy pound of gold would cost around $24,329.28. This calculation highlights the importance of understanding the specific unit of measurement when discussing or trading gold to avoid confusion and financial discrepancy. Market Influences on Gold Prices Several factors can influence the market price of gold. Economic indicators, such as inflation rates and the dollar’s strength, play a significant role. For instance, gold prices tend to increase when the dollar weakens as investors look for safe-haven assets. Additionally, geopolitical events such as wars or political unrest can drive up demand for gold, further influencing its price. The supply and demand dynamics of gold also affect its value; for example, increased demand for gold in technology or manufacturing can drive up prices. Purchasing Gold For those looking to purchase gold, whether for investment purposes or as a collectible, it’s essential to understand that gold can be bought in various forms, each with its pricing dynamics. Gold bullion, in the form of bars or coins, is the most direct way to invest in gold. These items are priced based on the current market value of gold per troy ounce plus a premium that covers the costs of fabrication, distribution, and a small dealer markup. When purchasing gold jewelry or other items, the price also includes the cost of craftsmanship, which can be significantly higher than the raw value of the gold used. This is why investment-grade gold usually comes in bullion or coins rather than intricate jewelry. Legal and Regulatory Aspects In the United States, the prospecting and mining of gold are subject to various federal and state laws designed to protect the environment and ensure safe mining practices. For recreational gold prospectors, it’s essential to research and adhere to these regulations, which can vary widely depending on the location. Permits may be required, and certain areas may be off-limits to prospecting to preserve natural habitats. The Role of Gold in Investment Portfolios Gold is often considered a “safe-haven” asset, meaning it retains its value well during economic uncertainty. For this reason, many investors include gold in their portfolios to hedge against inflation and currency devaluation. While the upfront cost of purchasing gold can be high, its historical performance and enduring value make it a worthwhile consideration for those looking to diversify their investments. Understanding the value of one pound of gold requires knowledge of the troy weight system, current market prices, and the various factors influencing gold’s value. Whether you’re an investor looking to add gold to your portfolio or a hobbyist interested in gold prospecting, having a detailed understanding of these elements is crucial. As the financial landscape evolves, gold plays a vital role in investment strategies, offering stability and security in an unpredictable market. Gold Price History & Trends Year Avg. Price per Ounce Avg. Price per Pound (12 oz) 2020 $1,770 $21,240 2022 $1,850 $22,200 2024 $2,050 $24,600 2025 $2,350 (est.) $28,200 Gold has historically served as a hedge against inflation, especially in uncertain economic times. From 2020 to 2025, gold has risen over 30% in value. Diversification and Portfolio Stability One of the key principles of investment is diversification, which involves spreading investments across different asset classes to reduce risk. Gold is an excellent diversifier because its price movements often have a low or negative correlation with other asset classes, such as stocks and bonds. This means that when traditional markets are performing poorly, gold often performs well, thereby balancing the overall risk in a portfolio. Including gold in an investment portfolio can reduce volatility and provide a hedge against market downturns. For instance, during the COVID-19 pandemic, gold prices soared as global markets experienced unprecedented disruptions. This demonstrated gold’s effectiveness in mitigating risk and preserving capital during crises. How Gold Is Sold: Bars, Coins, and IRAs Gold is typically purchased by the troy ounce, but here are a few formats in which it’s sold: 1 oz. coins (e.g., American Gold Eagle) 10 oz. and 1 kg bars Allocated or unallocated storage accounts Precious metals IRAs Buying a “pound of gold” isn’t a standard retail option—but it’s certainly possible if you’re purchasing multiple ounces or a large bar. Strategic Allocation of Gold The optimal allocation of gold in an investment portfolio varies depending on an investor’s risk tolerance, investment goals, and market conditions. Financial advisors often recommend allocating between 5% to 10% of a portfolio to gold to achieve diversification benefits without overexposing the portfolio to the metal’s price fluctuations. Investors can gain exposure to gold through various means, including physical gold (bullion and coins), gold ETFs (exchange-traded funds), and gold mining stocks. Each method has advantages and disadvantages, but all offer a way to incorporate gold into an investment strategy. Historical Performance of Gold Gold has a long track record of delivering positive returns over the long term. While its price can be volatile in the short term, it has historically appreciated, especially during economic stress. For example, from 2000 to 2020, gold’s price increased by over 500%, outperforming many other asset classes. Investors who included gold in their portfolios during this period benefited from its appreciation and role as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation. This historical performance underscores the importance of considering gold as a strategic component of a well-diversified investment portfolio. Gold as a Hedge Against Inflation Inflation erodes money’s purchasing power, making goods and services more expensive over time. Investors often seek assets that can protect their wealth from the detrimental effects of inflation. Gold has historically been one such asset, serving as a reliable hedge against inflation and currency devaluation. Gold’s reputation as an inflation hedge is well-established. Throughout history, gold has maintained its value during periods of high inflation. For instance, during the 1970s, the United States experienced double-digit inflation, and gold prices skyrocketed from around $35 per ounce in 1971 to over $800 per ounce by 1980. This dramatic increase in gold prices reflected its ability to preserve purchasing power when the value of the US dollar was declining. Mechanisms of Gold’s Inflation Hedging Gold’s effectiveness as an inflation hedge can be attributed to several factors: Intrinsic Value: Unlike fiat currencies, gold has inherent value due to its physical properties and scarcity. It cannot be printed or devalued by central banks, making it a stable store of value. Global Demand: Gold is universally recognized and in demand worldwide. During inflationary periods, demand typically rises as investors and central banks seek to protect their assets from devaluation. Limited Supply: The supply of gold is relatively inelastic, meaning it cannot be rapidly increased to meet rising demand. This scarcity helps maintain its value even during times of economic instability. Modern Examples of Gold’s Inflation Hedging In recent years, gold has continued to demonstrate its role as an inflation hedge. For example, during the COVID-19 pandemic, governments worldwide implemented unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus measures, raising concerns about future inflation. In response, gold prices surged, reaching an all-time high of over $2,000 per ounce in August 2020. Investors turned to gold to protect their wealth from potential currency devaluation and inflation resulting from increased money supply and government spending. This modern example reinforces gold’s enduring value as an inflation hedge. Comparing Gold to Other Precious Metals Gold is often compared to other precious metals, such as silver and platinum. These metals have unique characteristics, market values, and investment potential. This section will explore the similarities and differences between gold, silver, and platinum, providing a comprehensive comparison for investors. Market Values and Trends Gold, silver, and platinum have distinct market values influenced by various factors. Gold is typically the most valuable and widely traded precious metal. As of 2024, gold prices hover around $2,017.39 per ounce, reflecting its high demand and status as a safe-haven asset. Silver, on the other hand, is more affordable and often seen as a more volatile investment. Its price tends to be influenced by industrial demand and economic conditions. As of 2024, silver prices are approximately $25 per ounce. Platinum is rarer than gold and silver. It has significant industrial applications, particularly in the automotive industry, where it is used for catalytic converters. Its price fluctuates based on industrial demand and mining supply. As of 2024, platinum prices are around $1,000 per ounce. Investment Potential Due to its historical performance and safe-haven status, gold is considered a stable investment. It is less volatile than silver and platinum, making it a preferred choice for conservative investors. Gold is also a popular choice for portfolio diversification and inflation protection. Silver’s investment potential is tied to its industrial uses, which account for more than half of its demand. This makes silver more volatile than gold but offers higher growth potential during economic booms when industrial demand is high. Silver is often favored by investors looking for higher returns and willing to accept more risk. Platinum’s investment potential is closely linked to industrial demand, particularly in the automotive and jewelry sectors. Its rarity and unique properties make it valuable, but its price can be more volatile due to supply and demand fluctuations. Platinum is often considered a speculative investment, suitable for those with a higher risk tolerance. Roles in Economic Contexts Gold, silver, and platinum each play different roles in the global economy. Gold is primarily viewed as a store of value and a hedge against economic uncertainty. Its demand is driven by investment and central bank purchases, making it less sensitive to industrial demand fluctuations. Silver’s dual role as an industrial metal and a store of value makes it sensitive to economic cycles. During economic growth, industrial demand for silver rises, increasing its price. Conversely, silver prices can be more volatile during economic downturns than gold. Platinum’s primary role in the economy is as an industrial metal. Its demand is closely tied to the automotive industry and other industrial applications, making platinum prices highly sensitive to changes in industrial production and technological advancements. The Impact of Global Events on Gold Prices Global events have a significant impact on gold prices. Gold prices are susceptible to global events, which can cause significant fluctuations in the precious metal’s value. Geopolitical tensions, economic crises, and major policy changes often lead investors to seek safe-haven assets, driving up gold prices. This section explores how various global events have historically affected gold prices, providing specific examples and data. Geopolitical Tensions Geopolitical tensions are a major driver of gold prices. When conflicts arise, uncertainty increases, leading investors to buy gold as a hedge against potential economic instability. For example, during the Gulf War in the early 1990s, gold prices spiked as tensions in the Middle East heightened. Similarly, in 2014, Russia’s annexation of Crimea caused a surge in gold prices as investors reacted to the geopolitical risk. Economic Crises Economic crises, such as recessions and financial market crashes, also significantly impact gold prices. During the 2008 financial crisis, gold prices soared as the global economy faced unprecedented turmoil. Investors flocked to gold to protect their wealth from declining stock markets and the collapsing financial system. Gold prices rose from around $800 per ounce in 2008 to over $1,900 per ounce by 2011, reflecting its role as a safe-haven asset during economic distress. Central Bank Policies Central bank policies, particularly those related to monetary easing and interest rates, are crucial in determining gold prices. For instance, gold prices often increase when central banks implement low-interest-rate policies or quantitative easing. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. During the COVID-19 pandemic, central banks worldwide slashed interest rates and implemented large-scale asset purchase programs, significantly increasing gold prices. By August 2020, gold had reached an all-time high of over $2,000 per ounce. Inflation and Currency Devaluation Inflation and currency devaluation are other key factors that influence gold prices. When inflation rises, the real value of money decreases, prompting investors to seek assets that can preserve their purchasing power. Historically seen as a hedge against inflation, gold becomes more attractive in such scenarios. For example, during the high inflation period of the 1970s in the United States, gold prices increased dramatically as investors sought to protect their wealth from eroding purchasing power. Currency devaluation, whether due to economic mismanagement or deliberate policy, also drives gold prices higher. When a currency loses value, gold becomes more expensive in that currency, leading to increased demand. For instance, the devaluation of the US dollar in the 1970s and early 2000s resulted in significant upward movements in gold prices. Major Policy Changes Major policy changes, such as changes in trade policies or regulatory environments, can also impact gold prices. For instance, the trade tensions between the US and China in recent years have caused fluctuations in gold prices. As tariffs and trade barriers were implemented, market uncertainty increased, prompting investors to turn to gold. Types of Gold Investments Investing in gold involves various methods, each with advantages and disadvantages. This section provides an overview of the different ways to invest in gold, including bullion, jewelry, ETFs, and stocks in gold mining companies, to help investors choose the best option for their needs. Gold Bullion Gold bullion, in the form of bars or coins, is the most direct way to invest in gold. It represents tangible ownership of gold, offering the security of a physical asset. Bullion is typically sold by weight and purity, with prices based on the current market value of gold plus a premium for fabrication and distribution. Pros: Direct ownership of physical gold. No counterparty risk. It can be stored securely in a safe or vault. Cons: Requires secure storage, which can be costly. Not as liquid as other forms of gold investment. May involve higher transaction costs due to premiums and storage fees. Gold Jewelry Gold jewelry is another form of physical gold investment. While it combines the aesthetic and practical uses of gold, its value as an investment is influenced by craftsmanship and design, often resulting in higher costs than bullion. Pros: Tangible asset with intrinsic beauty and cultural significance. It can be worn and enjoyed as a luxury item. Cons: Higher premiums due to craftsmanship and design. Not purely an investment in gold’s market value. Can be less liquid and harder to resell at market value. Gold ETFs Gold Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) allow investors to invest in gold without owning physical bullion. These funds track the price of gold and are traded on stock exchanges, offering liquidity and ease of access. Pros: Highly liquid and easily traded on stock exchanges. No need for secure storage. Lower transaction costs compared to physical gold. Cons: Subject to management fees. Investors do not own physical gold. Potential exposure to market risks and regulatory changes affecting the ETF. Stocks in Gold Mining Companies Investing in the stocks of gold mining companies provides exposure to gold’s price movements and the potential for additional gains from the companies’ operational success. These stocks can offer high returns but come with increased risk due to factors such as production costs, management efficiency, and geopolitical risks. Pros: Potential for high returns from both gold price increases and company performance. Provides leverage to gold prices. Cons: Higher risk due to company-specific factors and market volatility. Requires research and analysis of individual companies. Exposure to operational and geopolitical risks. Gold Futures and Options Gold futures and options are derivative instruments that allow investors to speculate on gold prices without owning the physical metal. These financial contracts provide leverage, enabling investors to control large amounts of gold with a relatively small initial investment. Pros: High leverage and potential for significant returns. It can be used for hedging and speculation. Cons: High risk due to leverage and market volatility. Requires a deep understanding of futures and options markets. Potential for substantial losses. Gold vs. Other Inflation Hedges Gold has unique advantages, while other assets, such as real estate, commodities, and inflation-linked bonds, can also serve as hedges against inflation. It is highly liquid, easily traded on global markets, and not tied to any specific country’s economic performance. This makes it a versatile and effective tool for preserving wealth in various economic conditions. Investors should consider including gold in their long-term investment strategy to effectively use it as an inflation hedge. A common approach is to allocate a portion of the portfolio to gold alongside other inflation-protected assets. This diversified approach can help mitigate the risk of inflation and currency devaluation while providing potential for capital appreciation. Investors can gain exposure to gold through various means, including physical gold, gold ETFs, and gold mining stocks. Each method has pros and cons, but all offer a way to incorporate gold into an investment strategy to protect against inflation. FAQ: What People Are Asking in 2025 How much is one pound of gold worth today? Roughly $28,200, based on June 2025 prices. Is gold a good investment in 2025? Yes, especially in times of inflation and market volatility. Many investors are using gold to diversify their portfolios and secure their retirement through self-directed IRAs. Can I buy a full pound of gold? Yes. While it’s more common to purchase by the ounce, buying multiple ounces or a large bar totaling one pound is possible through major dealers. Does gold go up during recessions? Historically, gold prices tend to rise during recessions or financial instability as demand increases for stable, tangible assets. Buying gold by the pound may sound impressive, but it’s more practical—and more common—to think in troy ounces. That said, gold’s steady growth and universal value make it a strong addition to any portfolio in 2025. If you’re interested in serious wealth preservation, owning even a pound of gold can represent a smart, inflation-resistant foundation for your future. Gold’s historical performance, intrinsic value, and global demand make it a reliable hedge against inflation. By including gold in their investment portfolios, investors can safeguard their wealth from the erosive effects of inflation and currency devaluation, ensuring long-term financial stability. Whether you are new to gold investing or have been a collector for years, it is essential to research and work with a reputable dealer. American Bullion is a trusted resource for those looking to invest in gold IRAs, offering a wide selection of gold coins from around the world and expert guidance on which coins are right for you. So why wait? Invest in gold coins today and start building a brighter financial future. 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Week in Review: Trump Taco, USD indecision and RBNZ Rate decision This week was once again filled with tradable action in markets. The week started off with closed US and UK markets, a broadly positive sentiment taking global indices higher in the beginning of the week with the Nikkei 225 leading the charge. The US Dollar also started the week on a good note, although things have since changed with Wednesday evening Taco Trump headlines: The US Federal Court have cancelled the US President's plan to impose record tariffs on key economic partners. close A picture of the USD performance vs all majors, May 30. Source: TradingView /media/images/Screenshot_2025-05-30_at_4.58.19PM.width-1400.png Indices all around the globe have finished the week green though off their highs. It was a week packed with earnings as we have observed releases for big names such as Nvidia, Dell and Costco who all beat their expectations. The Nasdaq is beating all US Indices having enjoyed the earnings beats from NVDA and DELL. It is finishing the week up 1.96% One of the themes that did not help to continue the good news was more uncertainty, as equity markets were on the road to return to their all-time highs though failed to do so. In the currency space, the US dollar ended up leading—not by strength, but by being the least weak in a choppy week. The Japanese yen took the biggest hit, following Monday evening remarks from Japan’s Finance Minister that triggered a notable drop in the currency. We can't forget the biggest headline, the previously mentioned Taco Trump. This story refers to the U.S. Federal Court’s recent rejection of former President Donald Trump’s trade tariff policies. The court ruled that Trump had overstepped his authority when imposing certain import taxes. This led to major swings in the Dollar Index as it seesawed above the 100.00 level, then came right back below. The index is closing around 99.40. For commodities, Gold held around the $3,300 level and stays close to $200 below its all-time high. It seems that the market is awaiting for more news before taking a clear direction. The precious metal still finishes down 2% on the week. Oil is down almost the same, with fears of higher supply. The price is still constrained between a 60.5 and 64 range. Bitcoin on the other hand is down above 3.5% on the week, slightly rejecting the all-time highs though prices are still above the key mark of $100,000. The Week Ahead: May NFP and Rate Decisions for the BoC and ECB Next week is packed with key data compared to last week. We will see the release of high impact data from the US, China, Canada and Europe. This should be more fuel for volatility, especially if we see any data that provides more clarity on the impact of the most recent Trade Wars. Asia Pacific Markets Outlook The week won't be as packed with data for the APAC compared to last week. We will start off with Minutes from the last RBA Meeting to see if the Australian Central Bank confirms their dovish tone from the May 21 meeting - reminder that they have cut rates by 25 bps at that meeting taking their core policy rate to 3.85%. We will also see the Caixin Manufacturing PMI Release from China, expected at 50.6, followed by the Services data on Wednesday 4th of June expected at 50.7. We will observe how tariff menaces impacted the top global exporter. Finally we are expecting the Australian release for PMIs and Import/Export data. Do not forget the speech from the BoJ Governor Ueda at 3:50 AM E.T. during the night on Tuesday June 3rd. Europe, US and UK Market Outlook Expect a big week for European and North-American markets. The week starts with PMI Data from Italy, Germany, Canada and the more market-moving US ISM Manufacturing, releasing on Monday June 2nd at 10:00 - Consensus is at 48.7. Tuesday June 3rd will see the release of the Eurozone CPI which doesn't tend to move markets too much as it is an aggregate of all European countries' CPIs - it may although still impact EUR currency pairs. Wednesday's most important event will be the Bank of Canada Rate Decision at 9:30, expected to stay put- Rates are at 2.75%. The Press conference at 10:30 might be more important though to monitor where Governor Macklem is standing regarding his views on the Canadian economy. We will also have the US Services PMI Release expected at 52. Thursday we will have the ECB Rate Decision, expected to cut by 25 bps to from 2.4% to 2.15% (Main Refinancing Operations Rate) though the decision is not unanimous. The decision will be out at 8:15 A.M E.T. on the 5th of June. The rate decision will be followed by mid-tier data from Canada (Ivey PMIs) and the weekly Jobless Claims report. And to conclude the week, for Friday June 6th, the biggest data will be the release of the US NFP report expected at 130K at 8:30, with the Canadian Jobs data released at the same time and being preceded by Europe Retail Sales at 5:00 E.T. Most impactful Economic Calendar releases for Next Week close For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) /media/images/Screenshot_2025-05-30_at_3.44.38PM.width-1400.png Safe Trades for the week ahead! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © {CURRENT_YEAR} OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

A crisis is unfolding in the bond market that equity investors may not be aware of. Long-term government bond yields are rising across major economies as governments struggle to contain mounting debt burdens. Last week, Japan’s 30-year bond yield ran to an all-time high of 3.4%. The 40-year also hit a record 3.6%. The Financial Post reports the higher yields resulted from a weak bond auction that highlighted investors’ concerns over the country’s fiscal stability. Germany’s 30-year “bund” yields jumped over 12 basis points, reflecting fears over its €500 billion rearmament plan. Japan has long faced a mountainous debt problem. A 260% debt-to-GDP ratio is by far the highest among all major economies. (Reuters) What happens in Japan reverberates beyond, given that Japan is the largest holder of US Treasuries at about USD$1.3 trillion. If Japan were to sell Treasuries en masse, it could impact the ability of the United States to finance its ever-expanding spending, that is increasing under the Trump administration’s so-called Big Beautiful Bill making its way through Congress. More on that below. Japanese institutions sold $119.3 billion worth of US Treasuries in just one quarter, marking the steepest quarterly decline since 2012. US Treasury auctions are also showing signs of strain. Last week, a $16-billion auction of 20-year bonds saw weak demand, forcing yields higher. In fact, the Federal Reserve had to step in to buy up nearly $2.2 billion of the $16 billion bond issue. Last Wednesday’s bond purchase came after the Fed bought up more than $40 billion in Treasuries. The 30-year Treasury breached 5%, reflecting concerns over rising deficits and long-term borrowing capacity. As a result, Moody’s downgraded its US debt rating from the top-level Aaa to Aa1. As investor confidence in US debt declines, borrowing costs could rise (higher yields are needed to attract investors to what are now considered riskier assets), increasing the interest burden on the US government. As yields go up, the US government must spend more of its revenues just to keep up with interest payments. The Financial Post notes the United States leads other mature economies in deficit spending, with the deficit equivalent to 6.4% of GDP in 2024. Compare this to 5.8% in France, 2.8% in Germany, 4.8% in the UK, and 2% in Canada. There is growing concern that trade uncertainty, particularly in the wake of policy shifts by the Trump administration, could serve as an excuse for governments to maintain large deficits. The spectre of new tariffs, trade wars, and economic retaliation could add further pressure to already fragile bond markets. Bond markets are applying increasing pressure on governments to confront their fiscal realities, but policymakers seem unwilling to rein in spending. In an article titled ‘Bond Vigilantes Strike Back: How Soaring Yield Threaten the Global Economy — and Where to Hide’, AInvest says the bond vigilantes — those who punish governments for reckless policies by dumping debt — smell trouble: President Trump’s tax cuts, increased military spending, and a credit rating downgrade by Moody’s have eroded confidence that Washington can manage its finances. This is a major change from the situation up to now, when investors considered US government bonds a safe haven even as the national debt ballooned to $36 trillion. AInvest notes the US deficit, currently around $1 trillion, is projected to expand by $3-5 trillion over the next decade, courting disaster. This puts the Federal Reserve in a bind: It can’t cut interest rates to ease borrowing costs because inflation remains sticky. This leaves the U.S. in a stagflationary trap: high rates, slow growth, and soaring bond yields. Turning inward the yen trade reverses A key point: With foreign investors losing confidence in US Treasuries, they are turning inward, and what they are seeing is their own bonds are just as attractive, due to higher rates, and less risky than US Treasuries. Barron’s notes Japanese investors have typically invested in higher-yielding foreign securities especially US Treasuries. That included both the Bank of Japan and Japanese life insurers. Now, a Japanese investor can earn more in long-term Japanese government bonds than in 30-year US bonds, whose yields have ticked up over 5%, after deducting the cost of hedging for exchange-rate risks. So, the Japanese probably will repatriate funds that previously had pumped up other markets, especially the U.S., via the so-called yen-carry trade (borrowing at ultralow Japanese rates to buy higher-returning assets elsewhere, including Nasdaq stocks). “If sharply higher JGB yields entice Japanese investors to return home, the unwinding of the carry trade could cause a loud sucking sound in U.S. financial assets,” writes Société Générale global strategist Albert Edwards. The Economist writes, “Higher Japanese Yields Suck Money from World,” meaning that Japanese investors now do better owning their own bonds: It is no wonder that investors are reassessing the risk of long-term lending to Uncle Sam. Even before the budget bill cuts tax revenues, America’s government has borrowed $2trn (or 6.9% of GDP) over the past year. Combined with the chaotic policymaking of recent months, and Mr Trump’s threats against America’s institutions, that has put the once-unquestionable haven status of Treasuries up for debate. For more on how the jolt in Tokyo could point to more trouble ahead for global bond markets, read this Reuters story and see the following charts: A big ugly bill But the real danger facing the US government is the massive and fast-growing interest being paid on the debt. The Committee for a Responsible Budget estimated that President Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” (BBB) will increase the US debt load by at least $3.3 trillion and boost the annual deficit to more than 7% of GDP by 2034. In 2023 it was already at 6.3% of GDP. According to Politico, the bill includes a fresh round of tax cuts, plus hundreds of billions of dollars in new funding for the military and border security. Nonpartisan forecasts say it causes over 10 million people to lose health care coverage, while shifting resources away from low-income households to the wealthiest. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) said the bill would reduce spending on Medicaid and food aid by nearly a trillion dollars. According to Barron’s, the BBB would put the U.S. on a continued path of budget deficits in excess of 6% of gross domestic product, while the nation’s overall debt would exceed the size of the U.S. economy… the budget deficit already is close to 6% of GDP while the economy is at full employment, and government debt is close to 100% of GDP and headed to nearly 120% in a decade’s time. The Mises Institute agrees the bill does nothing to cut overall spending and will only add to the deficit, at least $3 trillion more in coming years. This should be very worrying for the federal government since today’s auction suggests that there are indeed limits to just how much new debt investors are willing to absorb at the “usual” low-low interest rates. Rather, as it becomes increasingly clear that the Trump administration has no interest in cutting spending to slow the rising tide of federal debt, investors expect the federal government to only increase the amount of new Treasury bonds it dumps into the market. As markets see a rising supply of debt, there’s good reason to expect the price to drop—and thus drive yields higher. [bond prices move in the opposite direction of yields — Rick] It looks like Donald Trump’s spending policies will drive enormous amounts of ongoing deficit spending, and this will probably hit $4 trillion per year within the next four years. This will require the US government to dump enormous amounts of new Treasurys into the market in coming years. Will there be enough demand from investors to prevent a sizable increase in yields (and, therefore, a sizable increase in interest costs)? If Wednesday’s auction is any indication, there is good reason for the Fed and the federal government to be worried. Debt spiral The Congressional Budget Office has projected a federal budget deficit of $1.9 trillion this year, and federal debt rises to 118% of GDP in 2035, according to the CBO. The national debt currently stands at $36.2 trillion. While the size of these numbers is of concern, as long as the federal government can pay the interest on its debt — meaning it can cover the interest on the bonds it’s issued — the government is solvent. Failing to pay bondholders would mean the government has effectively defaulted on its debt, which would be a disaster for the US government and the American economy. The United States has had a budget deficit every year except four since 1970. It isn’t going to stop with the Trump administration. According to the Joint Committee on Taxation, the House reconciliation bill/ BBB would increase deficits by $3.8 trillion through 2034. The chances of the bill getting stopped in the Senate, where Republicans have a majority, are I think,nil. It will then proceed to the president for signing into law. As the debt keeps climbing, it may never have to be paid off, but at minimum, the US government must pay the interest owed to its bondholders. Concern about Washington’s ability to make those payments, and the fact that Treasury buyers require a higher rate to take on what are now considered developing country bonds, are driving Treasury yields higher, making it even harder for the government to pay its bondholders due to the increased interest rates. Apart from ever-increasing budget deficits and interest on the debt, arguably an even bigger problem is the damage to America’s reputation caused by the Trump administration, which affects the rest of the world’s willingness to sop up Treasury bonds and thus pay for US overspending. End of US dollar supremacy Donald Trump has boldly imposed a new era of US economic policy dominated by tariffs, trade wars, and threats to the sovereignty of nations it has long considered allies (Canada, Denmark, Panama), as the second-term president aims to rewrite the rules of international trade mostly by disregarding them as he pursues an America-first agenda. The cost to the United States of Trump’s trade war and “country takeover” rhetoric has already cost America its reputation. Is the US dollar and its status as the world’s most important reserve currency also about to be tossed into the rubbish bin of world history? A de-dollarization movement that started a few years ago appears to be gathering pace. What’s going on with the dollar and if it recedes or, God forbid, collapses, what are the alternatives? The US dollar is the most important unit of account for international trade, the main medium of exchange for settling international transactions, and the store of value for central banks. Because of the dollar’s position, the US can borrow money cheaply, American companies can conveniently transact business using their own currency, and when there is geopolitical tension, central banks and investors buy US Treasuries, keeping the dollar high and the United States insulated from the conflict. A government that borrows in a foreign currency can go bankrupt; not so when it borrows from abroad in its own currency i.e. through foreign purchases of US Treasury bills. Lately though, the dollar is losing its “exorbitant privilege” and de-dollarization is being pursued by countries with agendas at odds with the US, including Russia, China and Iran. A few years ago, China came up with a new crude oil futures contract, priced in yuan and convertible into gold. The Shanghai-based contract allows oil exporters like Russia and Iran to dodge US sanctions against them by trading oil in yuan rather than US dollars. Russia and China have both made moves to de-dollarize and set up new platforms for banking transactions outside of SWIFT. The two nations share the same strategy of diversifying their foreign exchange reserves, encouraging more transactions in their own currencies, and reforming the global currency system through the IMF. Most Russia-China trade is now conducted in Chinese yuan or Russian rubles, with the US dollar almost completely bypassed. Since Trump has returned for a second term, his tariffs and trade war has accelerated the decline of the dominance of the dollar. (Geopolitical Economy). GE says it’s not only governments that are seeking alternatives to the US dollar but also major financial institutions and investors. The Financial Times of Britain published an analysis from the global head of FX research at Deutsche Bank, who warned, “We are witnessing a simultaneous collapse in the price of all US assets including equities, the dollar versus alternative reserve FX and the bond market. We are entering unchartered territory in the global financial system.” Certain countries are diversifying away from the dollar, buying gold and other reserve currencies like the euro instead, or conducting trade in one another’s currencies, like yuan and rubles. JP Morgan points to two scenarios that could erode the dollar’s status. The first includes adverse events that undermine the perceived safety and stability of the greenback. “Bad actors” like Donald Trump seem to fit this description perfectly. The second factor involves positive developments outside the US that boost the credibility of alternative currencies — economic and political reforms in China, for example. The influential bank notes that signs of de-dollarization are evident in the commodities space, where energy transactions are increasingly priced in non-US dollar currencies. India, China and Turkey are all either using or seeking alternatives to the greenback, while emerging market central banks are increasing their gold holdings in a bid to diversify away from a USD-centric financial system. Watcher.Guru’s De-Dollarization Tracker identifies 55 countries that are now using non-dollar currencies to conduct international transactions. As mentioned above, new payments systems are facilitating cross-border transactions without the involvement of US banks, which could undermine the dollar’s clout. Finally, the US dollar’s share of foreign-exchange reserves has decreased, mostly in emerging markets. According to IMF data, at the end of 2024, the dollar accounted for 58% of global foreign exchange reserves, while 10 years earlier that share was 65%. Equally, the share of the US Treasury market owned by foreigners has also fallen sharply, from 50% in 2014 to around a third today. At $36 trillion and counting, interest payments on the debt now surpass the entire US defense budget. Many countries are questioning the fiscal strength of the US economy and whether holding Treasuries is worth hitching their wagon to an economy that is so deep in the red. The Council on Foreign Relations reminds us that during the Bretton Woods talks, British economist John Maynard Keynes proposed creating an international currency called the “bancor”. While the plan never materialized, there have been calls to use the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights as a global reserve currency. SDR is based on five currencies: the euro, pound sterling, renminbi, USD and yen. Proponents argue it would be more stable than one national currency. Many experts agree that the dollar will not be overtaken by another currency anytime soon. More likely is a future in which it slowly comes to share influence with other currencies. Renowned economist Stephen Roach believes that we are heading for a ‘Stagflation for the Ages’, writing in Project Syndicate that The supply-chain disruptions during the pandemic look almost quaint compared to the fundamental reordering of global trade currently underway. This fracturing, when coupled with US President Donald Trump’s attacks on central-bank independence and preference for a weaker dollar, threatens a prolonged period of stagflation. The US decoupling from global trade networks, especially from China-centric and US/Canada/Mexico-centric supply chains, will reverse supply-chain efficiencies that reduced inflation by at least half a percentage point a year over the past decade. The reversal is likely to be permanent. Also, the reshoring of manufacturing to the US will not be seamless, nor accomplished in the short time, with projects taking years to plan and construct. Finding workers for mostly low-paying jobs seems to be an issue. Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors believes investors think gold is a classic fear trade that retail investors are still sorely underexposed to. I believe they should be scared; economic signs point to a coming bout of stagflation. A stagflationary environment is one where economic growth is decelerating, and inflation remains high. Is the US on a road leading to possible stagflation and recession? Tariffs are thought by most to be inflationary. Decelerating growth should mean more job losses on top of federal job loss programs underway, through DOGE. The US, and perhaps large parts of the global economy are on the road to stagflation. The Federal Reserve agrees, The Hill reports: Minutes from the May meeting of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate-setting committee show stagflationary risk to the economy as a result of new White House trade policies and higher projections for unemployment through the next couple of years… Officials felt that “the labor market was expected to weaken substantially, with the unemployment rate forecast moving above the staff’s estimate of its natural rate by the end of this year and remaining above the natural rate through 2027.” The Fed projected in March an unemployment rate of 4.4 percent for 2025 and of 4.3 percent for 2026 and 2027. The May minutes suggest those numbers will be higher. With the dollar in retreat and the bond market in chaos, where should an investor go for protection, other than cash, which seems like a bad idea with stagflation right around the corner. Commodities The answer is commodities. The Financial Post agrees that “investors should consider having some exposure to real assets such as commodities to protect purchasing power.” Gold Gold does well in stagflationary periods and outperforms equities during recessions. In fact, gold outperforms other asset classes during times of economic stagnation and higher prices. The table below shows that, of the four business cycle phases since 1973, stagflation is the most supportive of gold, and the worst for stocks, whose investors get squeezed by rising costs and falling revenues. Gold returned 32.2% during stagflation compared to 9.6% for US Treasury bonds and -11.6% for equities. When inflation started rising in March 2021 gold was trading around $1,700/oz. Over subsequent months, both gold and inflation headed higher, with the CPI topping out at 9% in July 2022 and gold reaching $2,050 in March 2022. Forbes notes “Stagflation creates economic uncertainty because it challenges the traditional relationship between inflation and unemployment. Historically, gold benefits in economic uncertainty.” Silver Silver, like gold, is a precious metal that offers investors protection during times of economic and political uncertainty. However, much of silver’s value is derived from its industrial demand. It’s estimated around 60% of silver is utilized in industrial applications, like solar and electronics, leaving only 40% for investing. The lustrous metal has a multitude of industrial applications. This includes solar power, the automotive industry, brazing and soldering, 5G, and printed and flexible electronics. What makes the current silver market particularly compelling is the persistent supply-demand imbalance. If projections hold true, 2025 will mark the fifth consecutive year of silver deficit. The market is exceptionally tight, with industrial demand steadily climbing while supply from mining and recycling has remained relatively flat. (Economic Times) But silver hasn’t kept up to gold’s impressive gains of late. While gold reached a record $3,500 in April, silver has remained subdued, struggling to breach even the $35 mark. Ahead of the Herd thinks that the gold-silver ratio, currently at 99.5 (meaning it takes 99 oz of silver to buy one oz of gold, the ratio has averaged 60:1 since early 1970’s), shows silver may be undervalued compared to gold, indicating a potential for upward price movement. Copper S&P Global produced a report in 2022 projecting that copper demand will double from about 25 million tonnes in 2022 to 50Mt by 2035. The doubling of the global demand for copper in just 10 years is expected to result in large shortfalls — something we at AOTH have been warning about for years. Copper smashed a record on Wednesday, March 27, with the most traded contract on the COMEX reaching $5.37 a pound or $11,840 a tonne. Traders predicted at a Financial Times commodities summit in Switzerland that the metal could reach at least $12,000 a tonne this year as supply concerns flare up globally. (Mining.com). Global copper consumption has increased steadily in recent years and currently sits at around 26 million tonnes. 2023’s 26.5 million tonnes broke a record going back to 2010, according to Statista. From 2010 to 2023, refined copper usage increased by 7 million tonnes. Wall Street commodities investment firm Goehring & Rozencwajg quoted data from the World Bureau of Metal Statistics confirming that global copper demand remains robust, outpacing supply. The shift to renewable energy and electric transportation, accelerated by AI and decarbonization policies, is fueling a massive surge in global copper demand, states a recent report by Sprott. Increasing investments in clean technologies like electric vehicles, renewable energy and battery storage should cause copper demand to climb steadily, and challenge global supply chains to meet this demand. The report cites figures from the International Energy Agency (IEA), such as global copper consumption growing from 25.9 million tonnes in 2023 to 32.6Mt by 2035, a 26% increase. Clean tech copper usage is expected to rise by 81%, from 6.4Mt in 2023 to 11.5Mt in 2035. On the supply side, BHP points to the average copper mine grade decreasing by around 40% since 1991. The next decade should see between one-third and one-half of the global copper supply facing grade decline and aging challenges. Existing mines will produce around 15% less copper in 2035 than in 2024, states the company. “Most of the high-grade stuff’s already been mined,” says Mike McKibben, an associate professor emeritus of geology at University of California, Riverside, quoted recently by NPR. “So, we have to go after increasingly lower grade material” that costs more to mine and process, he says. Shon Hiatt, a business professor at the University of Southern California, said, “It’s projected that in the next 20 years, we will need as much copper as all the copper that has ever been produced up to this date.” Conclusion The number of tense geopolitical hot spots around the world (Syria, North Korea, Taiwan, Iran, Israel, Ukraine) is reason enough to consider investing at least part of your portfolio in gold and silver — either the physical metals or mining stocks which leverage higher prices. With Ukraine now free to use long-range missiles that can strike deep into Russia, I believe the Russia-Ukraine war is extremely dangerous. Especially considering that Russia is a nuclear-armed nation with a paranoid leader in Vladimir Putin. On the other hand, Russia is a middle economic power without the resources to support a strong war effort. A nuclear strike is unlikely considering that France and England alone could destroy Russia with their nuclear arsenals. Sooner or later Putin will realize that he’s pushed the EU and NATO as far as they will go, and now with 80 senators pushing Trump to increase sanctions, there should soon be light at the end of the dark tunnel in Ukraine. With respect to Iran, I believe a nuclear deal will be signed. It won’t be much different from the agreement Tehran signed with Obama but it’ll have Trump’s name on it. The wild card is Israel, but my thinking is that Israel is letting the US negotiate a deal with Iran in return for giving Israel a free hand in Gaza and the West Bank. The bottom line is that cooler heads are prevailing globally, perhaps with the exception of Ukraine. Still, we have to recognize that with Trump at the helm, any sudden announcement could result in a market correction, which could affect metals including gold, silver and copper. Do I believe we’ll return to the United States being the world superpower? No, I don’t. I think that horse has left the barn. A lot of people — think China, Russia, Iran — are taking advantage of the shift to US isolationism and its chaotic way of handling foreign policy. Amongst US allies, trust has been broken and faith in the US government has been shaken to the core; countries are starting to realize that in trade they can’t rely on the United States anymore. Countries are soon going to realize that they’ve depended on the United States for far too long and that they would be better off talking and trading amongst themselves. Canada is a good example, with Prime Minister Carney making overtures towards Mexico, the UK and the EU. Despite some talk of Alberta separating, the country has never been more united, with the premiers discussing ways to lessen or eliminate inter-provincial trade barriers. The Buy Canada movement is in full swing. However, I do see a multi-year period of adjustment during which supply chains shift and countries that used to deal primarily with the US become more self-sufficient and wary. This, along with US tariffs, are what’s behind my stagflation thesis. Stagflation may be bad for growth and a bummer for consumers due to continuing inflation, but stagflation is also good for commodities, especially when the dollar is weak. In this environment I don’t see the prices of gold, silver and copper going back to where they were before. Gold, I believe will continue to trade anywhere between $3,000 and $3,500 an ounce, the gold-silver ratio should decline and lift silver, especially given a fifth straight year of supply deficits, and copper could reach $5 a pound this year. With country groupings like the BRICS and ASEAN becoming more important, and de-dollarizing continuing, we could be moving towards a basket of currencies that exists alongside slowly declining US dollar usage. Also, with more central banks and large institutional investors buying their own bonds rather than US Treasuries, we could see investments becoming more localized. We could even see a worldwide spend on infrastructure as supply chains shift, which would be great for copper, iron ore, nickel, steel, and a host of other commodities. Canada again is a good example with a proposed energy corridor. The bottom line? In an unstable world, commodities — real, tangible assets — are the last safe haven standing. And the greatest leverage to rising commodity prices are junior resource companies. Legal Notice / Disclaimer Ahead of the Herd newsletter, aheadoftheherd.com, hereafter known as AOTH. Please read the entire Disclaimer carefully before you use this website or read the newsletter. If you do not agree to all the AOTH/Richard Mills Disclaimer, do not access/read this website/newsletter/article, or any of its pages. By reading/using this AOTH/Richard Mills website/newsletter/article, and whether you actually read this Disclaimer, you are deemed to have accepted it.