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Wednesday Trade Breakdown:1-Hour EUR/USD Chart On Wednesday, the EUR/USD currency pair traded in both directions while maintaining a downward bias on the hourly timeframe. The main decline occurred during the Asian session, so even the one major macroeconomic report — Germany's industrial production, which disappointed significantly — had virtually no impact on the euro. In the evening, the minutes from the latest FOMC meeting revealed that about half of the committee members expect further monetary easing. The key interest rate could be cut two more times by year-end. However, this information had already been public knowledge since September 17, the date of the Federal Reserve's prior meeting. In other words, the notion of two more potential rate cuts isn't news at all. In our view, the Fed's stance remains dovish and will stay that way, which logically should not support a stronger dollar. The U.S. government remains in shutdown mode, unrest continues in Chicago, and macroeconomic data are not being published. With all that in mind, how is the dollar even gaining strength? That's a "million-dollar question." 5-Minute EUR/USD Chart On the 5-minute timeframe, the only trade signal formed overnight. The price broke below the 1.1655–1.1666 zone, allowing short positions to be opened. Though the nearest target zone wasn't reached by the end of the day, those short trades could have been closed at any point — they were profitable either way. The only issue was the timing of the signal's formation. How to Trade on ThursdayOn the hourly chart, EUR/USD has broken the trendline multiple times, but the pair has continued to fall for unclear reasons. We consider the current movement to be entirely illogical. The overall fundamental and macroeconomic background remains highly unfavorable for the U.S. dollar, so substantial strengthening of the greenback is not expected at this point. In our view, as before, the dollar can only benefit from technical corrections — one of which is currently underway. For Thursday, EUR/USD could move in either direction. There's little clear logic behind the price action right now, and quite a lot of chaos. Today, Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak, but it's unclear what kind of reaction the market may have. You can look for trades within the 1.1655–1.1666 area. On the 5-minute TF, the important levels to watch are: 1.1354–1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455–1.1474, 1.1527, 1.1571–1.1584, 1.1655–1.1666, 1.1745–1.1754, 1.1808, 1.1851, 1.1908, 1.1970–1.1988. The key event to highlight on Thursday is Powell's speech. Market participants will be focused on his comments, not only because he is the Fed Chair during a period of rate cuts, but also because it is essentially the only major event scheduled this week. Basic Rules of the Trading System:The strength of a signal is determined by how quickly it forms (a bounce or breakout). The faster the signal forms, the stronger it is.If two or more false trades occur around a particular level, that level should be ignored for future signals.In a sideways market (flat), any pair may generate many false signals — or none at all. In such a case, it's better to step away from trading at the first signs of consolidation.Trades should be executed between the start of the European session and the midpoint of the U.S. session. All trades should be manually closed thereafter.On the 1-hour timeframe, only trade MACD signals when volatility is high and a trendline or trend channel confirms the trend.If two levels are located very close together (within 5–20 pips), treat them as a support or resistance zone.Once a trade moves 15 pips in the intended direction, set your Stop Loss to break even.Chart Annotations:Support and resistance levels are target areas for potential buy or sell entries. Use them to set Take Profit levels.Red lines indicate trend channels or trendlines that reflect the current direction of the market. They help determine preferred trade direction.MACD (14,22,3): The histogram and signal line can be used for additional confirmation of trade direction.Important speeches and reports (always listed in the economic calendar) can heavily influence currency pair movement. During their release, you should trade with extra caution or exit the market entirely to avoid sharp price swings against your position. For beginners in forex trading: remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and effective money management are essential for long-term success in trading. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

[Nasdaq 100 Index] – [Thursday, October 09, 2025] Given the Golden Cross between EMA(50) and EMA(200) and the RSI(14) being in the Neutral-Bullish zone, #NDX is likely to strengthen toward its nearest resistance level in the near term. Key Levels 1. Resistance. 2 : 25381.4 2. Resistance. 1 : 25265.9 3. Pivot : 25044.8 4. Support. 1 : 24929.3 5. Support. 2 : 24708.2 Tactical Scenario Positive Reaction Zone: If #NDX breaks out and closes above 25,044.8, it has the potential to test 25,265.9. Momentum Extension Bias: If 25,265.9 is surpassed, the next target to be tested would be 25,381.4. Invalidation Level / Bias Revision The upside bias weakens if #NDX falls and closes below 24,708.2. Technical Summary EMA(50) : 25039.5 EMA(200): 24923.6 RSI(14) : 61.75 Economic News Release Agenda: Tonight several economic data release will begin: US - Unemployment Claims - Tentative US - Factory Orders m/m - Tentative US - Final Wholesale Inventories m/m - Tentative US - Natural Gas Storage - 21:30 WIB The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

[USDX] – [Thursday, October 09, 2025] Although both EMAs are still in a Golden Cross, but with the appearance of a Bearish Divergence along with the RSI in the Neutral-Bearish area indicates potential weakness in #USDX today. Key Levels 1. Resistance. 2 : 99.29 2. Resistance. 1 : 99.05 3. Pivot : 98.80 4. Support. 1 : 98.56 5. Support. 2 : 98.31 Tactical Scenario Pressure Zone: If #USDX breaks down and closes below 98.56, it has the potential to continue its decline toward 98.31. Momentum Extension Bias: If 98.31 is breached and closes below, the 98.07 level will likely be tested. Invalidation Level / Bias Revision The downside bias is held if #USDX remains strong and breaks out, closing above the 99.29 level. Technical Summary EMA(50) : 98.75 EMA(200): 98.38 RSI(14) : 30.08 + Bearish Divergent Economic News Release Agenda: US - Unemployment Claims - Tentative US - Factory Orders m/m - Tentative US - Final Wholesale Inventories m/m - Tentative US - Natural Gas Storage - 21:30 WIB The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

XRP price started a fresh decline below $2.90. The price is now struggling and might continue to move down if it trades below $2.820. XRP price is slowly moving lower below the $2.90 zone. The price is now trading below $2.90 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at $2.880 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The pair could start a fresh decline if it settles below $2.820. XRP Price Dips Further XRP price failed to stay above $3.00 and started a fresh decline, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. The price declined below $2.950 and $2.920 to enter a short-term bearish zone. The price tested the $2.8320 zone and recently attempted a recovery wave. It climbed above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $3.05 swing high to the $2.8320 swing low. However, the bears remained active near $2.920. The price is now trading below $2.90 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. Besides, there is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at $2.880 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair. If there is a fresh upward move, the price might face resistance near the $2.880 level. The first major resistance is near the $2.920 level. A clear move above the $2.920 resistance might send the price toward the $2.950 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $3.00 resistance or the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $3.05 swing high to the $2.8320 swing low. The next major hurdle for the bulls might be near $3.050. More Losses? If XRP fails to clear the $2.920 resistance zone, it could start a fresh decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $2.820 level. The next major support is near the $2.80 level. If there is a downside break and a close below the $2.80 level, the price might continue to decline toward $2.7250. The next major support sits near the $2.650 zone, below which the price could continue lower toward $2.60. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for XRP/USD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for XRP/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $2.820 and $2.80. Major Resistance Levels – $2.920 and $2.950.

Binance Coin (BNB) extended its hot streak, trading above $1,310 (up 3% on the day and 30% on the week), as it flipped XRP to become the third-largest cryptocurrency by market value. BNB’s market cap now hovers near $182–185 billion, capping a seven-day run that outpaced Bitcoin and Ethereum. The surge followed a clean breakout above $1,100 and $1,200, with bulls now eyeing $1,360 and the psychological $1,500 handle if momentum holds. On the downside, $1,200–$1,240 is the first support zone traders are watching for a healthy retest. Record On-Chain Activity and Meme-Season Tailwinds Currently, BNB Chain is printing cycle-high activity. Daily transactions have ranged 10–17 million, monthly active addresses reportedly hit 60 million, and DEX turnover on BNB Chain just notched $6.05 billion in 24 hours (with PancakeSwap contributing $4.29B). A memecoin rush has also gripped the network as analytics from Bubblemaps show 100,000+ traders piled into BNB memecoins, with 70% booking gains and $516M in total profits across over 93,000 winners. CZ-themed tickers like “4” and “Broccoli” helped propel BNB to the top of DEXScreener’s trending lists, while tokens such as PALU and “Binance Life” collectively moved over $300 million in a single session, eclipsing meme volumes on rival chains. Institutional and enterprise signals are building too, with CEA Industries disclosing 480,000 BNB ($585M) with an aim to reach 1% of supply. Regionally, a Kazakhstan-backed BNB fund and growing integrations (including Chainlink’s data standard bringing official U.S. macro series like GDP and PCE on-chain) underscore expanding utility across DeFi, prediction markets, and payments. What to Watch For Binance Coin (BNB): Levels, Catalysts, and Risks Near term, the setup favors trend continuation while $1,200–$1,240 holds; reclaiming $1,320–$1,360 on rising spot volume would strengthen a run at $1,500. Key medium-term drivers include sustained on-chain throughput, sticky DEX/DeFi fees, and additional institutional balance-sheet exposure or partnerships. Still, after a parabolic week, the market is sensitive to profit-taking and social-driven froth; some community voices have questioned the pace of gains, raising the usual concerns around leverage and manipulation that typically surface during vertical moves. Cover image from ChatGPT, BNBUSD chart from Tradingview

Ethereum price failed to extend gains above $4,600 and declined. ETH is now moving lower and might extend losses below $4,400 in the short term. Ethereum started a downside correction below $4,600 and $4,550. The price is trading below $4,550 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There is a short-term rising channel forming with support at $4,460 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken). The pair could continue to move down if it trades below $4,400. Ethereum Price Dips Again Ethereum price extended gains above $4,620 and $4,650, like Bitcoin. ETH price tested the $4,750 resistance zone before there was a fresh decline. A low was formed at $4,414 and the price is now consolidating losses. There was a minor recovery wave above $4,500. The price climbed above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $4,759 swing high to the $4,414 low. However, the bears are active near the $4,550 level. Besides, there is a short-term rising channel forming with support at $4,460 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD. Ethereum price is now trading below $4,520 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. On the upside, the price could face resistance near the $4,520 level. The next key resistance is near the $4,550 level. The first major resistance is near the $4,585 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $4,759 swing high to the $4,414 low. A clear move above the $4,585 resistance might send the price toward the $4,620 resistance. An upside break above the $4,620 region might call for more gains in the coming sessions. In the stated case, Ether could rise toward the $4,720 resistance zone or even $4,750 in the near term. More Losses In ETH? If Ethereum fails to clear the $4,550 resistance, it could start a fresh decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $4,460 level. The first major support sits near the $4,420 zone. A clear move below the $4,420 support might push the price toward the $4,320 support. Any more losses might send the price toward the $4,250 region in the near term. The next key support sits at $4,150. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for ETH/USD is gaining momentum in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI – The RSI for ETH/USD is now below the 50 zone. Major Support Level – $4,420 Major Resistance Level – $4,550

Ethereum’s treasury stocks are starting to exhibit early signs of a potential market reversal, sparking renewed optimism across the cryptocurrency landscape. This movement among treasuries often serves as a leading signal of shifting sentiment within the broader ETH ecosystem. A Look At The Data Behind Ethereum On-Chain Recovery In a subtle shift that suggests the broader market may be stabilizing, Ethereum treasury stocks are beginning to flash early signs of reversal. Despite these encouraging signals, Ethereum remains well below its all-time high (ATH). Investor Ted Pillows pointed out on X that the institutional interest will only return once the charts show sustained momentum over several weeks. Ted believes that for ETH to reclaim its ATH and hinges on capital inflow, it requires the same kind of large-scale liquidity injection the network experienced in July and August, which are critical to fueling the next leg higher. SharpLink Gaming Inc., a prominent corporate holder of ETH, has reported strong compounding returns from its treasury strategy asset. In the past week alone, the company generated 451 ETH in staking rewards, which is utilized through both liquid and native staking. Since the launch of its ETH treasury strategy on June 2, 2025, SharpLink’s total cumulative ETH staking rewards have now reached an impressive 4,723 ETH. According to the company, 100% continuous generation of yield is the amount of its ETH treasury, which is currently generating approximately $370,000 worth of ETH every day, showcasing ETH’s unique ability to generate yield while maintaining liquidity. SharpLink highlighted this as the reason the altcoin stands out as a superior treasury asset, which is productive, yield-bearing, and constantly compounding in value. Despite the strong performance, the firm confirmed there were no new ETH purchases or stock buybacks over the past week, which means there won’t be a new press release for now. The company’s focus remains clear: “the asset is ETH, and the ticker is SBET,” SharpLink noted. Ethereum Market Share Is Moving Exactly As Scripted Technical analyst Umair Crypto has noted that Ethereum dominance is currently at a critical juncture, having completed the first half of a projected move and now setting the stage for the second half. This view anticipates a rejection from the current resistance area on the dominance chart toward the lower level for ETH Dominance, which will likely lead to a price correction where the next bounce for ETH will form. Umair concluded that the altcoin itself could experience a short-term correction once the move unfolds before reclaiming momentum for the next leg higher.

EUR/USD Yesterday, the euro reached and tested the target support level at 1.1605 before reversing upward, likely with the intention of closing Monday's price gap. The immediate growth target is the signal-interim level at 1.1779. A breakout above this level would open the path toward the upper boundary of the price channel near the 1.1910 mark. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator has formed its own upward channel, and the current reversal is occurring from its lower boundary — a technical confirmation of bullish momentum building. The first growth target is the MACD line at 1.1687, followed by 1.1779. On the four-hour chart, the resistance from the MACD line coincides with the same level on the daily chart. This overlapping resistance strengthens its significance, so a successful breakout through it could enhance (or accelerate) the bullish move. By that point, the Marlin oscillator (on H4) is expected to move into positive territory, thereby aligning with and supporting this upward momentum. An alternative scenario in this context would involve the euro falling below the 1.1605 level and consolidating beneath it, which would open the door for a decline toward the next target at 1.1495. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Natural Gas (NG) Over the past two weeks, the price of natural gas has made two unsuccessful attempts to break above the weekly balance and MACD indicator lines. As of today, the price has returned below the key support level of 3.333. The Marlin oscillator has also failed to enter positive territory and is now indicating a potential downward reversal. The nearest target at 3.086 is open. With a high degree of probability, the decline could extend well below this initial target — toward 2.643. On the daily chart, the price held above the 3.333 level for six consecutive sessions, but all attempts to build upward momentum were thwarted by technical resistance from higher timeframes. The price is now heading toward a test of the 3.086 support level, which is being reinforced by the approaching MACD line. If the Marlin oscillator moves into the negative zone by that time, it would strengthen the potential for the price to break through this support and continue declining toward 2.847 (April low). On the four-hour chart, the price has already consolidated below 3.333 and has moved downward past the MACD line — a clear sign of readiness to follow the downward trend of the higher timeframes. The Marlin oscillator is firmly in bearish territory. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD On Wednesday, the British pound reached the target support level of 1.3369, corresponding to the June 23 low. Previously, this level was slightly lower, based on the July 16 low. A rebound occurred from this support zone, which could potentially lift the price above the MACD line (at 1.3434), thereby opening the path toward the next target at 1.3525. However, the Marlin oscillator remains in negative territory, suggesting that the anticipated upward movement will not be easy — especially considering that the entire 1.3369–1.3525 range represents a long-term zone of free movement. On the four-hour chart, the MACD line at 1.3430 is the immediate resistance. The Marlin oscillator, unfortunately for the bulls, remains stuck in negative territory and has yet to support the potential bullish transition. It is clear that the pound is closely watching external markets, with its primary driver being the U.S. Treasury market, which has remained flat for the past three days. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

On Wednesday, the GBP/USD currency pair again traded slightly lower — but only marginally so. In our accompanying article on EUR/USD, we discussed the reasons for the euro's decline (spoiler alert: there are hardly any). Here, we take a closer look at the pound's behavior and ask — why is it falling at all? After all, the political crisis in France has nothing to do with the British currency. In fact, the answer is already clear. The pound has even fewer reasons to fall than the euro. The situation in France, which can hardly be called a genuine crisis, has no bearing on GBP. Suggesting that the pound is falling due to a political reshuffle in France makes as much sense as blaming it on a change of government in Costa Rica. We acknowledge that the euro and pound often move in tandem due to their high correlation; however, the euro has more reasons to rise than to fall at present. The conclusion? The current localized decline in both pairs is illogical. Zooming out to the daily timeframe shows there's no real downtrend in the British currency at all. GBP has been trading sideways for months, remaining near multi-year highs. This effectively means that even now, the market is struggling to mount a proper correction to the dollar's prior depreciation. The 4-hour timeframe tells a similar story of horizontal movement. What appears as a flat trend on the daily chart is expressed on lower timeframes as a sequence of minor bullish and bearish moves. Therefore, the pound swings up and down without obvious justification in shorter timeframes. It's worth noting that in a flat market, there's no need for meaningful catalysts behind price movements — this phase is often about accumulation or distribution by market makers. During such periods, the macroeconomic context can have muted relevance. Only after the current range is broken will we know which direction large institutional players have chosen for the dollar — because make no mistake, in 2025, the dollar remains the main player. Elsewhere this week, Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak today, and his comments may address the government shutdown and the Federal Reserve's plans for its October 29 meeting, given the lack of critical economic data. With no hiring, unemployment, or inflation data available, how can a policy decision be made? We believe this question is extremely important. Of course, the U.S. labor market won't fully recover in a single month following a rate cut from the Fed. But at the same time, how can decisions be based on nothing at all? The ADP employment report for September showed a negative result, but it's worth remembering that ADP has always been secondary to the Nonfarm Payrolls report — and often, the two diverge. In that sense, a weak ADP figure doesn't automatically mean weak NFPs. All of this only complicates the Fed's task. In our view, regardless of Powell's communication approach, the dollar is still headed in one direction — down. The Fed will likely cut interest rates further over the next several years. Meanwhile, the Bank of England has either already paused or is close to ending its tightening cycle, as UK inflation remains more than twice the target level. As of October 9, the average daily volatility of GBP/USD over the past five trading days is 81 pips — a typical range for this pair. On Thursday, we expect the pair to trade between 1.3292 and 1.3454. The higher linear regression channel is pointing upward, confirming the broader bullish trend. The CCI indicator recently entered oversold territory, hinting at a potential resumption of the uptrend. Support levels:S1 – 1.3367 S2 – 1.3306 S3 – 1.3245 Resistance levels:R1 – 1.3428 R2 – 1.3489 R3 – 1.3550 Trading Recommendations:The GBP/USD pair is experiencing a modest correction, but long-term prospects remain unchanged. Donald Trump's policies continue to weigh heavily on the U.S. dollar, making further dollar strength unlikely. Thus, as long as the price remains above the moving average, long positions targeting 1.3672 and 1.3733 remain relevant. If the price moves below the smoothing line, traders may consider small short positions toward 1.3306 and 1.3292 on a technical basis. USD corrections like the current one are possible from time to time, but sustainable dollar strength would require actual progress in resolving the trade war or a major shift in global sentiment — neither of which appears on the horizon. Commentary on Chart Indicators:Linear Regression Channels help identify the dominant trend. If both channels point in the same direction, the trend is considered strong.The Moving Average (20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and suggests trade direction.Murray Levels present key pivot points for movements and corrections.Volatility Bands (red lines) outline the probable daily trading range, based on current volatility.The CCI Indicator signals potential trend reversals when entering overbought (above +250) or oversold areas (below -250).The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The EUR/USD currency pair traded lower throughout Tuesday and Wednesday, declining steadily without major pauses, even overnight. This drop has been swift and persistent. So, let's ask an important question: do traders really understand that such a move requires major fundamental justification? And do they realize that it's not enough to isolate a single event—they need to consider the entire spectrum of macroeconomic and fundamental signals? Reading various expert commentaries brings to mind the classic line from the film "Casablanca": "Round up the usual suspects." At the moment, the euro does not have any serious reasons to be falling, yet many analysts are pointing fingers at the political turbulence in France — which isn't even a full-blown crisis — and blaming everything on that. Meanwhile, the U.S. labor market has delivered its fifth consecutive disappointing monthly report — and that's somehow been overlooked. The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has halted the publication of key economic reports, which are also not considered critical. Declining ISM business activity indices suggest an economic slowdown? Apparently unimportant too. The Federal Reserve's dovish messaging? Ignored. Trump's escalating tariff wars? Just a side note. But the resignation of a fifth French prime minister in two years? That's somehow a "global shockwave." Let's be honest: while France is a major EU economy, it is still just one country. The serial turnover of prime ministers has already become routine. No elections have been called, Parliament has not been dissolved, Macron has not resigned — so why the panic? This is why we believe that the euro's decline is not truly due to the French situation. And if that is the case, then the market is completely disregarding a wide array of fundamental factors that are negative for the U.S. dollar. If that's the case, then the current price movement is illogical — something we've been highlighting for days. Of course, illogical movements do happen in markets. Consider the dollar's long and arguably unjustifiable decline in the first half of 2025. What we're seeing now is a move that lacks a clear rationale. It might be driven by something hidden from most observers. For instance, the Swiss National Bank is openly conducting forex interventions these days—perhaps the European Central Bank is doing so secretly? It's also possible that large institutional players urgently need U.S. dollars for operational purposes and are hoarding them regardless of the macro outlook. After all, the FX market isn't just about trading for profit—it's a real economic tool, where banks and corporations obtain the currency they need to function. The average volatility of the EUR/USD pair over the last five trading days, as of October 9, is 68 pips, which is classified as "moderate." We expect Thursday's movement to remain between 1.1532 and 1.1668. The higher linear regression channel is still sloped upward, indicating a continued upward trend. The CCI indicator has entered oversold territory, which could trigger the next bullish wave. Support levels: S1 – 1.1597 S2 – 1.1536 S3 – 1.1414 Resistance levels: R1 – 1.1658 R2 – 1.1719 R3 – 1.1780 Trading Recommendations:EUR/USD continues to correct downward, but the broader uptrend remains intact, as evidenced on all higher timeframes. The U.S. dollar remains under the influence of Donald Trump's unpredictable trade and fiscal policies. The greenback's current rise is, at best, based on mixed reasoning. If price remains below the moving average, small short positions may be considered toward technical targets at 1.1536 and 1.1532. If the price climbs above the moving average, long positions targeting 1.1841 and 1.1902 become relevant, continuing the dominant trend. Commentary on Chart Indicators:Linear Regression Channels help identify the dominant trend. If both channels point in the same direction, the trend is considered strong.The Moving Average (20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and suggests trade direction.Murray Levels present key pivot points for movements and corrections.Volatility Bands (red lines) outline the probable daily trading range, based on current volatility.The CCI Indicator signals potential trend reversals when entering overbought (above +250) or oversold areas (below -250).The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin price corrected gains and traded below the $125,000 pivot level. BTC is now consolidating near $122,200 and might struggle to rally above $125,000s. Bitcoin started a downside correction below the $124,000 level. The price is trading below $123,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is a bullish trend line forming with support at $122,200 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might continue to move down if it trades below the $122,000 zone. Bitcoin Price Dips Again Bitcoin price extended gains above the $125,000 zone. BTC climbed above the $125,250 and $125,500 resistance levels before the bears appeared. A new high was formed at $126,198 before there was a correction. The price dipped below the $123,000 support zone and tested the $120,500 region. A low as formed at $120,694 and the price recently recovered above the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $126,191 swing high to the $120,694 low. However, the bears are still active near $124,000. Bitcoin is now trading below $123,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. Besides, there is a bullish trend line forming with support at $122,200 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Immediate resistance on the upside is near the $123,450 level. The first key resistance is near the $124,000 level and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $126,191 swing high to the $120,694 low. The next resistance could be $124,850. A close above the $124,850 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $125,500 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $126,000 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $126,200. More Losses In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $124,000 resistance zone, it could start a fresh decline. Immediate support is near the $122,000 level. The first major support is near the $121,200 level. The next support is now near the $120,500 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $118,500 support in the near term. The main support sits at $116,800, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the short term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $122,000, followed by $121,200. Major Resistance Levels – $124,00 and $124,850.

Bitcoin is entering a critical phase, preparing for a decisive move that will determine its short-term trajectory. After weeks of volatility and record-breaking highs, BTC now faces a pivotal test — it must either reclaim its all-time highs and enter a new phase of price discovery, or continue its correction to establish a stronger base of consolidation around current levels. The market appears finely balanced, with traders watching closely for signs of direction. Recent onchain data highlights a surge in new buyers, marking one of the strongest inflows of fresh capital seen in months. This trend suggests renewed bullish momentum, as investors increasingly view Bitcoin’s current range as an opportunity rather than a peak. According to key metrics, the supply held by short-term holders has grown substantially, reflecting the entry of new participants eager to ride the next major impulse. While short-term volatility remains a concern, analysts agree that the underlying structure of the market remains strongly bullish. As long as Bitcoin holds above its major support zones, the stage could be set for another breakout — one that propels the asset beyond its previous highs and into uncharted territory once again. Short-Term Holders Signal a New Phase for Bitcoin Top analyst Axel Adler shared key insights revealing that over the past quarter, short-term holders’ supply has increased by 559,000 BTC, climbing from a low of 4.38 million to 4.94 million BTC. This rise marks a clear influx of new participants entering the market, a pattern often seen during the early stages of bullish expansions. The growth in short-term holder supply suggests that fresh demand is building up — as new investors accumulate Bitcoin, older coins are redistributed, creating a healthier market structure. Historically, periods of rising short-term holder activity have coincided with momentum shifts, as fresh liquidity enters the system and fuels upward volatility. This dynamic reflects renewed market confidence following Bitcoin’s recent push to new all-time highs. More importantly, it shows that retail and short-term investors are re-engaging, positioning for what many analysts expect to be the next major impulse in the cycle. While some caution that high short-term holder activity can also lead to faster profit-taking and volatility, the broader outlook remains constructive. With long-term holders maintaining strong conviction and institutions continuing to accumulate, the combination of new inflows and resilient fundamentals supports a bullish continuation setup. Adler notes that this expansion in short-term supply typically precedes a new phase of market acceleration, as liquidity and optimism return in tandem. If Bitcoin manages to reclaim and sustain levels above its previous all-time high, the growing base of active short-term investors could provide the momentum needed for another breakout. In short, the data suggests that the market isn’t exhausted — it’s recharging, setting the stage for the next leg of the bull cycle. Bitcoin Holds Above Key Support Amid Healthy Pullback Bitcoin is currently trading near $122,600, showing resilience after a sharp rejection from the $126,000 area earlier this week. The 12-hour chart highlights that BTC has entered a consolidation phase following its explosive breakout, with the $120,000–$121,000 range now acting as a short-term support zone. The yellow line at $117,500, a previous resistance from earlier in the cycle, continues to serve as a key structural level that could define the next move. The blue 50-period moving average is trending upward, reinforcing bullish momentum, while the 200-period moving average remains far below the current price, confirming that Bitcoin is still in a strong uptrend. Despite the recent correction, the price structure remains constructive — higher highs and higher lows continue to form, suggesting that bulls are maintaining control. A decisive rebound above $124,500 could mark the beginning of a renewed push toward all-time highs, while a breakdown below $120,000 could open the door for a deeper retest of $117,500. Overall, this chart reflects a healthy cooldown after an aggressive rally, allowing momentum indicators to reset. As long as BTC holds above its key supports, the broader trend remains firmly bullish, setting the stage for another attempt toward price discovery. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

According to Coach JV, XRP could become “one of the greatest assets of our lifetime,” a view he has repeated in recent posts. He pointed to his decision in December 2020 to back the token when the US Securities and Exchange Commission filed a suit against Ripple, saying he went all-in while many others were selling. That moment, when XRP slipped to $0.17, is central to his claim that patience and discipline pay off. Coach JV’s Early Bet He says intuition and calm guided his call. Reports have disclosed that he credits those traits for building systems he expects to last. Back then, panic pushed prices down. He chose to hold and add. That move, according to his account, set the stage for later gains — from $0.17 to roughly $three, a rise he places at about 1,660% since the lawsuit announcement. Ripple’s Wins And Product Push According to Coach JV, Ripple’s legal victory over the SEC helped change the storyline for XRP. He also pointed to new consumer products, including the Gemini XRP Credit Card, as signs of wider adoption. In July 2025 he warned investors that ignoring XRP might mean missing a major transfer of wealth. In August he even forecast that XRP could overtake Bitcoin and Ethereum by 2030. Those are strong claims. They are based on legal clarity and new services that connect the token to everyday use. Strong Performance Zach Rector and other pundits have highlighted XRP’s strong run that favor the altcoin in recent months. Since the US election on November 5, 2024, sources show XRP up 488%. For the same stretch, Bitcoin rose 83%, Ethereum gained 95%, BNB climbed 136%, and Solana moved 45%. That puts XRP ahead among the largest non-stablecoin tokens in that time window. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from TradingView

Jupiter, a DeFi aggregator built on Solana, is working with Ethena Labs to roll out its own stablecoin called JupUSD. The launch is scheduled for the fourth quarter of 2025, and it is not being treated like a side feature. Jupiter plans to make JupUSD a core part of how its platform works, tying it into everything from swaps and lending to perps trading and beyond. What’s Holding It Together on Day One At launch, JupUSD will be backed entirely by USDtb, a stablecoin that is itself tied to short-term U.S. Treasuries. This gives it a clean, traditional kind of collateral to start with. Later on, Ethena’s other stablecoin, USDe, will be added to the mix. That will introduce more flexibility and allow for some yield optimization, but it also means extra moving parts. Instead of building a stablecoin system from scratch, Jupiter is leaning on Ethena to provide the engine behind the scenes. JupUSD Will Power More Than Just Payments This new stablecoin is not being built just for holding or simple transfers. Jupiter wants it to function as a base layer for the entire platform. It’s expected to become collateral for lending, fuel for perpetual futures, and a core trading pair inside Jupiter’s own swap tools. The goal is to rely less on outside stablecoins and instead build something fully integrated into the platform’s own liquidity engine. DISCOVER: 20+ Next Crypto to Explode in 2025 Launching a Stablecoin Isn’t a Walk in the Park Creating something like JupUSD is a big technical and operational task. There are contracts to deploy on Solana, and they will need to be audited for security before anything goes live. Even then, peg stability has to be monitored constantly, especially once USDe enters the picture. Market Cap 24h 7d 30d 1y All Time The more complex the collateral structure becomes, the more chances there are for things to slip or misfire, and that kind of risk could shake user confidence. DISCOVER: Best New Cryptocurrencies to Invest in 2025 Liquidity Could Shift Fast if It Catches On If the rollout goes well, JupUSD could start replacing some of the $750 million already sitting in Jupiter’s existing stablecoin pools. That would be a big reshuffle for Solana’s DeFi landscape. Not only would it change which stablecoins dominate the ecosystem, but it would also push Ethena’s infrastructure into a more central role across multiple platforms, since they are providing the tools that make JupUSD possible in the first place. Bigger Picture Behind the Move This entire plan reflects a growing trend among DeFi platforms to stop depending on outside money systems. Instead of building on top of someone else’s stablecoin, Jupiter is trying to own the whole stack. That way, fees stay in-house, liquidity stays put, and the entire user experience becomes more controlled and customized. If JupUSD succeeds, it could set a precedent for other projects to do the same. But it also means a bigger spotlight on how Jupiter handles governance, risk, and transparency. As more stablecoins launch, only those with strong internal systems will be able to weather market turbulence and user expectations. DISCOVER: 20+ Next Crypto to Explode in 2025 Join The 99Bitcoins News Discord Here For The Latest Market Updates Key Takeaways Jupiter is launching JupUSD, a Solana-based stablecoin built in partnership with Ethena Labs, aiming to make it a core part of its platform by late 2025. JupUSD will be fully backed by USDtb at launch, with Ethena’s USDe added later to bring more flexibility and yield opportunities. The stablecoin will power swaps, lending, and perpetual trading on Jupiter, reducing reliance on external stablecoins and tightening platform integration. If the rollout works, JupUSD could quickly replace a large share of Jupiter’s $750 million stablecoin pool, reshaping Solana’s DeFi liquidity landscape. This move fits a larger DeFi trend of building in-house stablecoins, giving platforms more control over liquidity, fees, and user experience. The post Jupiter Set to Launch Solana-Based Stablecoin JupUSD appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

Changpeng “CZ” Zhao’s family office, now operating as YZi Labs after rebranding from Binance Labs, has revealed a $1 billion builder fund to boost long‑term growth on BNB Chain. The initiative is aimed at founders working in areas like trading, real‑world assets, artificial intelligence, decentralized science, and DeFi. The goal is to strengthen the ecosystem by providing capital and support where it can have the most impact. Expanding the Builder Base The fund will target projects building infrastructure and applications on BNB Chain. This includes trading systems, AI tools, wallet solutions, payments, decentralized science, and real‑world asset tokenization. YZi is opening the doors to teams that may have never built on BNB before, offering them direct access to the BNB core team, hands‑on technical guidance, deployment help, and other resources that can smooth the onboarding process. Combining Incubation Powerhouses YZi’s EASY Residency incubator is being folded into BNB Chain’s Most Valuable Builder accelerator program. The new combined effort will start in October. Selected teams will be eligible for up to $500,000 in funding, along with operational support, infrastructure access, and tailored mentorship. The merger is designed to create a single, more powerful pipeline for identifying and nurturing high‑potential projects. DISCOVER: 9+ Best High-Risk, High-Reward Crypto to Buy in October2025 Building on Strong Network Momentum The announcement landed during a wave of heightened activity on BNB Chain. Daily transactions surged to more than 26 million, the highest figure since December 2023. At the same time, BNB’s native token hit fresh all‑time highs and overtook USDT to become the third largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization. Market Cap 24h 7d 30d 1y All Time The timing of the fund suggests a strategic push to capitalize on that momentum and channel it into ecosystem growth. Strategic Intent Behind the Funding CZ’s office is making a clear statement about its priorities. By supporting builders directly, YZi aims to encourage innovation inside the BNB ecosystem and strengthen its position as a preferred development environment. The fund is also designed to lower barriers for newcomers who may not be familiar with BNB’s infrastructure, helping them integrate faster and more effectively. DISCOVER: Next 1000X Crypto: 10+ Crypto Tokens That Can Hit 1000x in 2025 Execution Will Be the Real Test Deploying such a large amount of capital across multiple sectors will not be easy. It requires rigorous selection, oversight, and risk management to make sure the funding is both impactful and sustainable. Overly generous support could create distortions or lead to wasted capital. Coordinating incubation programs, technical integration, and funding flows will demand tight execution if the fund is to achieve its full potential. Early Signals to Watch Attention will turn to which projects receive funding first and how they perform once they hit the ground. Observers will be looking for clear structure in how the merged incubator operates and whether it attracts high‑quality teams. They will also be watching BNB Chain’s on‑chain activity, developer engagement, and transaction trends to gauge whether this fund can move the needle. DISCOVER: 20+ Next Crypto to Explode in 2025 Join The 99Bitcoins News Discord Here For The Latest Market Updates Key Takeaways CZ’s family office, now called YZi Labs, launched a $1 billion builder fund to accelerate long-term development across BNB Chain. The fund will support projects in trading, AI, DeFi, real-world assets, decentralized science, and infrastructure, offering capital and hands-on guidance. YZi’s EASY Residency incubator is merging with BNB Chain’s Most Valuable Builder program to create a single, stronger accelerator pipeline starting in October. The move comes as BNB Chain sees record transaction levels and BNB reaches new all-time highs, signaling a push to build on this momentum. The real challenge will be in execution, as deploying $1 billion effectively requires strict selection, risk control, and coordinated support to drive meaningful impact. The post CZ’s Family Office Unveils $1 Billion Builder Fund for BNB Chain appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

A prominent macro-crypto commentator argues that digital assets are transitioning from a greed-driven cycle to a “fear bubble,” with Bitcoin poised for a more powerful and more parabolic phase in 2026 than the euphoric surge of 2017. In a post on X from October 8, the analyst known as plur_daddy (@plur_daddy) contends that two narratives—monetary debasement and artificial intelligence—are now the dominant behavioral drivers, and that they operate less on promise than on anxiety. 2017 Vibes: Trump And AI Could Ignite Next Bitcoin Rally “We are in a bubble, and the most parabolic leg is approaching. The true fireworks will be next year but this Q4 we shall get a taste,” he wrote, adding that the stories animating this cycle are “fueled by twin narratives: debasement and AI. What is especially potent about these stories is the way they operate on fear, not hope. You NEED to buy gold/BTC to avoid getting your net worth debased away, and you NEED to have AI exposure to offset your future loss of labor market value.” While the themes are familiar to market professionals, he argues they have not yet been fully internalized by the broader public or by “bureaucratic real money funds such as pensions and endowments,” which he characterizes as slow to reposition for debasement risk. The result, he suggests, is under-owned exposure that can be forced higher once allocation committees catch up. “There is also a lot of investor capital that still hasn’t reflected these views yet,” he wrote, laying the groundwork for what he believes will be a structurally higher demand base for both Bitcoin and gold as the cycle matures. A central pillar of his thesis is a policy pivot he expects under the current administration, which he describes as “shifting in a pro-cyclical manner, leaning hard into the bubble, and ready to step on the gas ahead of the midterms.” He outlines four channels. First, “Trump Fed Hijacking,” shorthand for rate cuts followed by yield curve control to cushion the bond market and stimulate housing—timed “most likely… not… until May of next year,” which he frames as the ignition point for the final, steep ascent. Second, a Treasury issuance tilt to bills to pull down long-end yields and free up risk appetite. Third, enabling the GSE balance sheets to expand into mortgage bonds, compressing mortgage spreads and transmitting stimulus to housing via purchases and refinancing. Fourth, stimulus checks delivered through budget reconciliation—politically contested, he concedes, but with “decent odds” of prevailing given “ironclad” party control. Each mechanism, as he describes it, reduces financial frictions at the same time that fear-based narratives pull new capital into hard assets and AI-adjacent equities. The macro mix, in his view, is complicated but ultimately supportive. “The economy is not robust, but it is chugging along, floated by AI capex… a two speed economy, with real world businesses and the average consumer not doing great, but the high end and asset owners are soaring.” Moments later he sharpened the framing: “the two speed economy makes it goldilocks as the genuine weakness in parts of the economy creates a justification for continued fiscal/monetary stimulus while continuing to benefit asset owners. Be the asset owner, the beneficiary of it all.” This is the crux of the “fear bubble” argument: soft spots provide the political cover for policy support, while debasement concerns and job-market anxieties around AI keep households and institutions defensively overweight exposure to scarce assets and growth narratives. Why Q1 2026 Could See A Bitcoin Rally Pause For Bitcoin specifically, he lays out a path that interleaves seasonal strength, cycle reflexivity, and a final acceleration. “My base case is a strong Q4 for BTC, then a sharp downturn as the 4 year cycle debate must be played out in the markets, and finally a rebound that leaves doubters in the dust.” He later endorsed the possibility of “truly manic vertical days at the very end. Similar in vibes to early Dec 2017 in BTC,” invoking the last cycle’s most frenetic stage but recasting the psychology from greed to fear-driven defensiveness. The thread triggered broader speculation about end-cycle dynamics. Responding to a scenario from another user—“some kind of point in 2026 or 2027 where everyone collectively decides that the USD is going to 0 very quickly and impulsively buys whatever they can to get rid of it… Everything pumps +30% for 3 days straight… And then that is the top”—plur_daddy didn’t endorse the currency-collapse framing but did agree on the “truly manic vertical days at the very end.” Despite the bullish architecture, the analyst does not claim the underlying economy is healthy or that the path will be smooth. He argues instead that policy engineering—whether via issuance tactics, mortgage-market plumbing, or outright transfers—can keep liquidity channels open long enough to accelerate asset prices into a blow-off. “This is an environment where you want to stay long over the next 12 months, but you should be thoughtful in shifting portfolio composition between gold, BTC, and stocks,” he wrote, describing a rotation that acknowledges both macro dispersion and the possibility of sharp drawdowns en route to a higher peak. The bottom line of his thesis is unambiguous: the next stage of this cycle is fear-led, policy-fueled, and likely to exceed 2017’s magnitude. The difference, he argues, is psychological and structural. Where 2017 fed on retail euphoria, 2025–26 is animated by the defensive compulsion to preserve purchasing power and job relevance—“fear… is a much more potent driver of behavior than hope or even greed.” If his timeline holds, a taste in Q4, a shakeout on cycle debates, and a policy-catalyzed vertical in 2026 could define Bitcoin’s next act. At press time, BTC traded at $122,512.

Mantle (MNT) is bucking the broader market downturn, jumping 4% daily and 31% weekly to trade near $2.44 after printing a new all-time high at $2.47 (Oct. 7). The catalyst stack is clear: Mantle unveiled a compliance-first Real-World Assets (RWA) “Tokenization-as-a-Service” suite at Token2049, positioning the L2 as one of the few ecosystems building institutional-grade RWA rails. Momentum accelerated as World Liberty Financial confirmed its USD1 stablecoin, currently the #6 stablecoin with $2.6 billion cap, will launch on Mantle, a credibility boost for the network’s DeFi and payments footprint. A deeper “Mantle × Bybit Roadmap” adds distribution as Bybit processes over $30 billion in daily volume, offering Mantle instant visibility to a global trading base. Despite Profit-Taking, Volumes, Futures, and Liquidity Show Real Demand Recently, Spot activity has exploded as daily volume climbed from $125M in early September to over $612 million, while market cap nearly doubled to $7.3 billion, lifting Mantle into the top 35. Derivatives confirm conviction, open interest rose 26% to $4.85 billion, and funding stayed positive for nearly two weeks. On the chart, MNT invalidated a textbook bearish rising-wedge by breaking upward, then stacked short-term MAs above long-term, with a 50/200-day “golden cross” and a bullish MACD backdrop to match the narrative. One yellow flag, “smart money” holdings slid 49% over 30 days to 18.1 million MNT (Nansen), implying selective profit-taking into strength. That doesn’t break the uptrend, but it does argue for disciplined risk management and attention to spot-led versus leverage-led pushes. Key levels: Can Mantle (MNT) Clear $2.60 and Open a Path to $3? Technically, MNT’s structure remains constructive. Immediate support sits near $2.00–$2.10 (watch the $2.09 gap); holding above keeps the higher-low sequence intact. Overhead, $2.60 is the next inflection and a psychological line in the sand; a high-volume daily close above $2.60 would set up a measured move toward $2.85–$3.00. Failure to reclaim $2.60 on rising volume raises the odds of a reset into the $2.20s, where bulls will try to defend momentum against the backdrop of a softer crypto tape. Why it matters: RWAs are moving from narrative to implementation, and Mantle has planted a flag with compliance tooling, stablecoin depth (USD1), and CEX–L2 integration. In a week where majors wobbled, MNT’s breakout underscores where capital is rotating: networks shipping product-market fit, liquidity on-ramps, and institutional-friendly primitives. If the RWA pipeline and USD1 liquidity arrive on schedule, Mantle’s bid to sustain price discovery above ATHs remains open. Cover image from ChatGPT, MNTUSD chart from Tradingview

The beginning of October 2025 has brought a storm of significant developments across global financial markets — equity corrections, gold surging to historic highs, and conflicting macroeconomic signals. Traders and investors are navigating a highly unusual environment where the U.S. dollar is strengthening, Treasury yields are falling, and haven assets are soaring — all driven by political and monetary uncertainty. Multivariable Uncertainty: Why Markets Are Pulling in Different DirectionsThis week's macro triggers are familiar, but their simultaneous force and impact are exceptional. The key political backdrop is yet another extension of the U.S. government shutdown. The ongoing funding freeze is hindering the release of comprehensive economic reports and leaving investors reliant on the Federal Reserve's rhetoric and sporadic corporate announcements. At the center of market attention is the anticipation of minutes from the Fed's latest policy meeting. Investors are eager to see whether the central bank is leaning toward further rate cuts, or if it's signaling a pause or a potential hawkish shift. These expectations are immediately reflected in asset prices: 10-year Treasury yields have dropped to 4.10% due to traditional "flight to quality" flows, while the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) paradoxically climbed 0.3% to 98.84. The picture is paradoxical — investors are simultaneously flocking to the dollar, gold, and U.S. bonds. This combination reflects intense intraday volatility, with institutional capital quickly rebalancing FX hedges and rotating portfolio structures in response to headlines. Equity Market: Correction Amid Demand, Emergence of New LeadersThe S&P 500 saw its seven-day winning streak come to an end, falling 0.4%. The Nasdaq dipped deeper, losing 0.7%, while the Dow Jones posted a more modest decline of 0.2%. Futures recovered 0.2% the next day, indicating an attempt to return to a buying mode, although the broader sentiment remains cautious and wait-and-see. Investor interest continues to gravitate toward AI and semiconductor stories, seen as long-term portfolio cornerstones. Strong contract flows in AI infrastructure are expected to drive the bullish outlook for years to come. AMD delivered a remarkable 24% rally on Monday, followed by smaller but steady gains (+3.8% and +1% at close), driven by confirmed orders and tech partnerships, such as those with OpenAI. However, markets are now closely monitoring whether this momentum is being priced in — any sign of weakness in upcoming reports could trigger quick profit-taking. Tesla demonstrated the harsh logic of automobile sales: discounts on the Model Y/3 models might boost volumes but weigh on margins. The stock fell 4.4%, and traders are carefully eyeing the balance between profitability and sales growth. Volatility in high-flying tech stocks has become a blessing for traders seeking entry points on pullbacks or momentum reversals. Elsewhere, Confluent jumped 18% on rumors of a potential sale. AST SpaceMobile gained 10% following a deal with Verizon, showing the market's tendency to quickly reward news in next-gen telecom infrastructure. Credit scoring companies also drew attention — Equifax improved 3%, while FICO slipped 4% amid growing regulatory risks and pricing pressure in the sector. These dynamics will significantly affect future profitability assumptions. Amazon continues building its service ecosystem: the launch of pharmacy kiosks strengthens the bridge between retail and healthcare, reinforcing the diversification narrative that analysts and investors favor. Gold Reaffirms Its Status as a Premier Safe HavenThe most visual market move this week came from gold, which broke above $4,000 per ounce and reached a new record high of $4,060 in morning trading. The surge reflects a classic flight to safety — driven by falling bond yields, political risk, the U.S. government shutdown, and the lack of macroeconomic visibility following delayed federal data releases. Notably, gold is climbing even as the dollar strengthens — a rare combination that signals not a currency-driven move, but a reflection of declining real yields and a strategic shift toward hard assets. In this environment, adding gold or precious metals ETFs to strategic portfolios may provide useful hedging and significantly reduce volatility during uncertain macro conditions. U.S. Dollar and Bonds: Safe-Haven Rivalry and Global Capital ImplicationsThe rise of the Dollar Index (DXY) amid falling 10-year yields reflects the dollar's growing role as a short-term refuge, as FX hedges and global portfolios rebalance. Typically, these episodes precede a realignment of international capital flows and hint at rising pressure in adjacent markets. For companies with significant international revenue, stronger dollar valuations erode foreign earnings when converted back into local currency. This FX headwind can weigh on bottom lines despite healthy operations. In the commodities sector, where assets are dollar-denominated, a strong greenback may dampen bullish rallies by making purchases more expensive for holders of other currencies and increasing hedging costs. Such effects are key to understanding the evolving currency landscape and should inform portfolio strategies that include foreign holdings. Development Scenarios for the Coming Weeks and Key Areas to WatchThe base-case scenario suggests consolidation after recent pullbacks. Futures indicate an attempt at recovery, gold is stabilizing above $4,000, and corporate earnings and sector-specific fundamentals are expected to drive performance in the near term. However, major shifts could occur if the Fed's upcoming meeting minutes reveal a hawkish bias or if the government shutdown continues. In that case, another gold surge, equity selloff, and renewed dollar strength are likely. Key variables to monitor include: Content of the FOMC minutesOutcome of U.S. government budget negotiationsMovements in 10-year Treasury yieldsInflows into gold ETFsEarnings reports from major stocks, especially AMD, Tesla, Confluent, and Verizon/ASTSFX-related sections in corporate reports from global market leadersStrike a Balance: Hedging and Synergy Between News and FlowToday's market lacks predictability. Short-term corporate events can overpower even the strongest macroeconomic themes. In this environment, it's wise for investors to stay selective, take profits in overheated trades, and consider hedging with defensive assets such as gold, treasuries, or large-cap ETFs. For active traders, the best approach is disciplined risk management, capturing technical bounces around headlines, and proactively protecting positions around major releases like Fed minutes. Adaptability and a news-flow-driven understanding of market dynamics will be critical as the global financial system continues to shift from clarity to complexity. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Palladium surged nearly 10% on Wednesday to a two-year high amid a relentless rally in precious metals that propelled both gold and silver prices to records. The metal, used primarily in catalytic converters in car exhaust systems, traded as high as $1,482.65 per ounce, the highest since May 2023. Over the past month, palladium has risen by more than 20%, riding the momentum of investment demand for safe-haven metals, in particular during a period of heightened political and economic uncertainty. In comparison, gold has gained 11% during that period, while silver rose by nearly 17%. Year to date, palladium is up by nearly 49%, almost mirroring the performance of gold, though the metal is still trading at nearly half its all-time high of $3,400 an ounce. Sponsored: Invest in rarity and strength — purchase palladium bullion confidently via Sprott Money.

Demand for the European currency continues to decline, but from my perspective, there is nothing alarming about that. We all want to see ideal wave patterns or perfect technical setups that provide clear entry opportunities and consistent profits. However, in practice, things often turn out differently. Currently, the euro's decline contradicts the wave structure. Wave 4 (if that's truly what it is) is taking on a five-wave form. This is possible within the a-b-c-d-e correctional formation. If the wave count is incorrect, the trend section that began on September 17 (right after the FOMC meeting) still doesn't appear impulsive in nature. Therefore, I don't expect a new downward trend segment to form in the near future. The main topic of discussion this week is the political crisis in France. I won't list every detail that's circulating online because, ultimately, they are not critical for market participants. I would simply say that the dissolution of Parliament would be a problem. Resignation of Emmanuel Macron would be a blow. But the appointment of a fifth prime minister in the last couple of years is not yet a crisis. Some analysts suggest Macron might dissolve the Parliament and call snap elections, where his party would further lose ground. The French president understands this and is unlikely to take such a step. The possibility of him "firing himself" is also very low. If in the past two years the fifth prime minister has already been appointed, then Macron has had at least four clear opportunities to step down. Since he didn't do so, then it's safe to assume he doesn't intend to now. Thus, everything points toward the appointment of a new prime minister, and the euro—if French domestic politics indeed drive its current decline—should begin to recover. Let me also remind you that traders should not be focused solely on France's political crisis. The situation in the United States remains extremely complex. Many economists are discussing the potential for a recession, despite the record GDP growth in Q2. Donald Trump continues to raise tariffs and may soon enter into an open confrontation with Russia and Venezuela. Perhaps it's not for nothing that the Department of Defense was renamed the Department of War. Global tensions continue to rise—due to geopolitics, trade barriers, and policymakers' inability to do their job, namely, to negotiate. Wave outlook for EUR/USD:Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument is continuing to form an upward trend segment. The wave pattern still depends entirely on the news background, particularly decisions made by Donald Trump, as well as the domestic and foreign policies of the White House. Target levels for the current trend segment could extend as far as the 1.2500 area. Currently, corrective wave 4 appears to be either complete or nearing completion. The upward wave structure remains intact. Therefore, I'm currently only considering long positions. By the end of the year, I expect the euro to rise toward 1.2245, which corresponds to the 200.0% level on the Fibonacci scale. Wave outlook for GBP/USD:The wave structure of GBP/USD has changed. We are still dealing with an upward impulsive trend, but its internal wave structure is becoming less readable. If wave 4 takes on a complex three-wave form, the overall structure should normalize. However, in this case, wave 4 will be significantly more complicated and larger than wave 2. In my view, the most practical approach now is to use the 1.3341 level as a reference point, which aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci level. Two unsuccessful attempts to break through this mark indicate the market's readiness for new buying waves. The instrument's targets still lie no lower than the 1.3800 range. Basic principles of my analysis:Wave structures should be simple and easy to interpret. Complex formations often lead to change or breakdown.If there is no confidence in the market situation, it's better not to enter.There can never be 100% certainty regarding the direction of prices. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

On Wednesday, the USD/JPY pair updated its 8-month price high, firmly settling within the 152 range for the first time since February this year. The yen remains under intense pressure following the internal party elections within Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), in which Sanae Takaichi emerged victorious. This means she is now the most likely candidate to become the next Prime Minister of Japan. However, the leader of the ruling party does not automatically become head of government. Takaichi's nomination must still be approved by parliament — and the LDP does not hold a majority in either chamber. A failed attempt by her predecessor, Shigeru Ishiba, who tried to strengthen his hand through snap elections, has left the Liberal Democrats dependent on their coalition partner, the Komeito party. The consequences of this dependence are now being felt. Negotiations over forming a new cabinet under Takaichi's leadership appear to be difficult. As a result, the extraordinary parliamentary session (in which her candidacy is to be ratified) has been postponed "at least until October 20" due to the lack of consensus with Komeito. The USD/JPY reacted to this news with a minor pullback, but still held within the 150 range. Traders remain confident that Takaichi will ultimately lead the Japanese government, with far-reaching implications. It's worth noting that her victory in the internal party elections was far from guaranteed: she was declared the winner only after a second round of voting, in which the former Interior Minister received 185 votes against Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi's 156. This contributed to a sharp market reaction, as USD/JPY surged by 650 points in just three days. Takaichi is a known opponent of interest rate hikes and supports tax reductions and expansive economic stimulus measures. Following her victory, she declared that "the government must take responsibility for monetary policy" and that the Bank of Japan should consider "the best means to achieve its objectives." Crucially, she also suggested the government may revise the monetary policy agreement with the BOJ, which was concluded in 2013. That agreement reaffirmed the government and central bank's commitment to price stability, specifically targeting a 2% inflation rate. Potential Changes to the 2013 Framework What might change if the agreement is revised? 1.A More Flexible Inflation Target The first – and potentially most impactful – change could be a shift from a strict 2% inflation target to a more "flexible" or "medium-term" target. That would be bad news for the yen, as it would allow the BOJ to tolerate inflation above target for extended periods and delay rate hikes accordingly. 2.New Metrics Beyond Inflation The 2% target might be supplemented by additional metrics such as wage growth or employment. Unlike the U.S. Federal Reserve, which has a dual mandate (inflation + employment), the BOJ currently focuses solely on price stability. If Japan's central bank starts taking labor market conditions into account, as the Federal Reserve does, that again puts pressure on the yen. For example, even if the BOJ acknowledges that 2% inflation has been achieved, it could still delay action if wage growth is deemed insufficient. Such prospects are bearish for the yen. The pullback in USD/JPY is a technical correction stemming from stalled negotiations between Sanae Takaichi and Komeito party leader Tetsuo Saito. However, this delay does not mean another candidate will replace Takaichi. The coalition partners are engaged in political bargaining, but a split in the alliance seems implausible — it would hurt both sides. Furthermore, the opposition lacks a unified, viable candidate to challenge Takaichi in the upcoming parliamentary vote. Therefore, any corrective pullbacks in USD/JPY should be viewed as opportunities to enter long positions. From a technical standpoint, the pair remains either at the upper Bollinger Band or between its middle and upper bands across all higher timeframes. It is also trading above all lines of the Ichimoku indicator. On the H4 and D1 timeframes, this indicator has formed a bullish "Three Line Break" (or "Parade of Lines") pattern — reinforcing the long bias. The first and primary upside target remains 153.50 — the upper Bollinger Band line on the four-hour chart. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Canada's trade deficit widened significantly in August, reaching 6.3 billion CAD compared to 3.8 billion CAD in July. The key factor behind this shift was the implementation of new tariffs, which led to a noticeable decline in exports to the United States. Weakened exports are expected to put pressure on GDP growth in the third quarter, which already looks uncertain after the disappointing second-quarter contraction of -0.4%. The likelihood of a rebound now appears low. Consumer demand in Canada is rising, primarily due to the Bank of Canada's rate cuts, which have encouraged household spending. Not even the threat of higher prices from new U.S. tariffs deterred Canadian consumers—household spending in Q2 rose by 4.5%. However, this surge remains insufficient to signal a robust recovery. Consumer spending is projected to grow at a monthly rate of just 1.3–1.4% through year-end, which is below the trend level. As consumption increases, the savings rate is falling, which, combined with still-high unemployment, may pose a risk to demand in the near future. The situation remains challenging for the Bank of Canada. Although the interest rate has been reduced from its peak of 5.00% to 2.75%, the accompanying boost to economic activity and household consumption has not been strong enough to shift the economy into sustained growth. On Wednesday, Prime Minister Mark Carney headed to Washington, where trade relations between the U.S. and Canada will be at the top of the agenda. Whether he returns with positive outcomes remains to be seen. For now, it must be assumed that even the current 2.75% rate is not enough to support the economy. The Bank of Canada's next meeting is scheduled for October 29, and another rate cut is widely expected. On Friday, Canada's labor market report will be released. Forecasts indicate a negative outcome, with unemployment projected to rise to 7.2% and a net loss of 50,000 jobs. All indicators suggest that the Bank should continue cutting rates. The only obstacle to further easing could be inflationary risks. So far, signs of price pressure remain subdued. However, inflation is expected to rise in the U.S., UK, Australia, and New Zealand, and whether Canada can avoid this global trend will become clearer with the inflation report due on October 21. In general, the Canadian economy remains too weak to assume that the Bank of Canada will conclude its rate-cutting cycle in October. As a result, pressure on the loonie is likely to grow, especially when factoring in the U.S. Federal Reserve's dovish stance on future rate moves. The calculated fair price remains above the long-term average, supporting the view that there is continued upside. As expected, the USD/CAD pair has climbed somewhat higher, nearly reaching the resistance zone at 1.4010/30, where the upper edge of the channel is located. The middle of the channel, at 1.3905/20, serves as near-term support and could act as a target for a technical pullback. However, there is currently no strong fundamental reason for a deeper drop toward the lower band near 1.3780/3800. We expect the pair to resume its upward movement after forming a new base. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

With just one statement, Sebastien Lecornu saved France — and Europe! The speech by the outgoing prime minister, announcing progress in negotiations with political parties over the budget, led to a rebound in the CAC-40 index and a narrowing of the yield spread between French and German bonds. As a result, EUR/USD managed to find a footing. But how long will it last? Yield Spread Dynamics Between French and German Bonds Achieving results requires efforts from both sides. Lecornu studied the demands of both the left- and right-wing parties and indicated a willingness to compromise. While he previously announced plans to set the budget deficit for next year at 4.7%, he now speaks of a figure below 5%. According to HSBC, had the still-serving prime minister adopted a harder line on this issue, the EUR/USD would likely not have been able to reach the 1.20 mark by 2025. It seems that the euro is afraid of extreme scenarios, whether that be parliamentary or presidential elections in France. However, it's entirely possible that just clarifying the situation and the president announcing a vote would be enough to reignite the EUR/USD rally. It was the same with U.S. tariffs. As long as there was uncertainty, problems persisted. Once the White House started signing trade agreements, everything started to stabilize. Even if import tariffs stand at 15%, businesses simply need to know the rates and how to comply. However, appetite grows with eating. According to a Bloomberg insider report, in early October, Washington sent new proposals to the EU aimed at achieving mutual, fair, and balanced trade. Brussels deemed them maximalist, with the requested concessions considered too steep. Will a new trade war erupt? No one knows — but escalation of the conflict would hardly suit the eurozone, the European Central Bank, or EUR/USD. Unusual activity in the futures market suggests further volatility may lie ahead. Traders are pricing in three rounds of monetary easing by the European Central Bank in 2026. Derivatives currently estimate the scale of this easing at a modest 10 basis points. The odds of such a move are only 1%, but stranger things have happened. If that trade plays out, returns could be 30-fold. Dynamics of the Expected Scale of the Federal Reserve's Monetary Expansion Should the ECB ease policy in 2026, or if the Fed chooses not to lower the federal funds rate during one of its 2025 FOMC meetings (either in October or December), euro bulls would lose one of their key advantages. Such a scenario is possible but unlikely. That's why the current pullback, driven by the escalation of the political crisis in France, looks more like a correction than a true trend reversal. On the daily chart, EUR/USD broke out of its fair value range, only to rebound from the convergence zone created by pivot levels at 1.1590–1.1605. If the pair fails to break through this zone on its second attempt, traders should close shorts opened from 1.1710 and shift back to long positions. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com